We live in a world based on money.
我们生活在一个以钱为基石的世界
But why do we need it and where does it come from?
但钱为什么出现 又来自何方呢
In part 1 of this therapy session,
剖析的第一部分
we talked about value creation and trade.
我们讲到了价值创造和交易
If you haven’t seen it, watch it first.
如果你没看 先去看
The story could have ended right there
故事本可以就此终结
with all of us creating our pots and spears
定格在我们制作陶罐和长矛
and trading them for each other.
互相交换的时刻
Such trade which doesn’t involve any money is called barter.
这种与钱无关的交易便是以物易物
The problem with barter economy such as the one of Ancient Greece
以物易物存在一个弊端 以古希腊为例
is that they rely on the coincidence of wants.
该体制建立在互补互换的基础之上
Someone with a surplus of spears and a lack of ports
一个多矛少罐的人要想交易
has to find this exact counterpart to enter a trade.
必须恰巧找到一个多罐少矛的人
Having to wait for such coincidences results in an illiquid market,
这种不确定性导致市场缺乏流动性
meaning not a lot of trades are happening.
也就是说 交易很少发生
The problem of the coincidence of wants can be solved
解决互补互换的弊端 需要
with a universal dividable storage of value,
大家约定俗成可分割的价值储藏手段
also known as Opportunity.
也就是
机会
No, money.
不 是钱
就是钱 (好吧)
叮!
In a situation when a coincidence of wants doesn’t work
当互补互换的交易机制因交易双方
because no two parties can agree on a trade,
无法达成一致不运作时
give everyone a coin and they can resolve their conundrum.
给他们每人一枚硬币 难题就迎刃而解了
Value can be stored, trade becomes flexible,
价值可以储藏 交易因此灵活
and everybody gets what he wants.
大家都各取所需
Wherever trade was common, there was some widely accepted form of money.
交易盛行之处自然少不了广泛认可的钱
In 17th century, Japan, for example,
以17世纪的日本为例
such a unit was Koku, an amount of the rice.
当时以“石”(一定数量的大米)为单位
The empire even tried to measure its total wealth in Kokus
他们甚至尝试以“石”衡量全日本的财富
and arrived at around 28 million,
结果大概是2800万“石”
which using the current stock market price of rice would be
通过计算现在股市上的米价
around one and a half billion US dollars in today’s money.
大致相当于现在15亿美元
Does this conversion make sense? I don’t know.
这有意义吗 我不知道
But it’s less than one Evan Spiegel.
但还没埃文·斯皮格尔钱多
“Money Money Money”
“钱钱钱”
So how much money does an economy need to run?
所以 多少钱才可以运转一个经济体呢
That depends on the amount of value creation and trade that are happening.
这取决于价值创造量和发生的交易量
If you live in a Bronze Age village with an economy
如果你生活在青铜器时代的一个村庄 经济基础是面包陶瓷和一些水壶
thousands of units will do the trick.
几千元就可以运转经济
Scale it up to a larger city, and you will need millions.
一个更大的城市会需要几百万
For wealthy nation, billions or even trillions.
富有的国家需要几十亿甚至是几万亿
Today, the worldwide amount of money is categorized into the 4 Ms.
如今 世界范围内的钱可以分成四类
M0 is the cash in circulation.
M0指流通中的现金
Worldwide, that’s currently around 6 trillion US dollars.
目前全球约有六万亿美元的流动资金
If you are saving all your money to piggy bank,
如果你把钱都存进猪形储钱罐
then that’s the glass ceiling you’re eventually going to hit.
那存钱罐里的钱就是你所需的所有钱
Now if you save your money in a bank account, you can go places.
如果你把钱存进银行账户
Because then it becomes part of M1,
你可以一走了之 因为账户包含部分M1
which is the amount of money that exists in cash plus the one which exists in demand deposits.
即流通中的现金加上活期存款
The amount of M1 is currently around 30 trillion US dollars worldwide.
目前世界上约有300万亿的M1
Now you take those 30 trillion Washingtons and
现在你把300万亿美金
add them to saving accounts and time deposits.
存进储蓄账户和定期存款
Now you will have the amount of money that we refer to as M2,
现在你存的那些钱 我们称之为M2
which is currently around 70 trillion US dollars.
目前约700万亿美元
Finally add to that large liquid assets like the institutional money market funds
最后再加上流动资金如机构货币市场基金
at a whole lot of other company, you arrived at M3.
还有一堆有的没的 你就得到了M3
In other words, M3 is the total amount of value
换句话说 M3指的就是总货币供应量
which we are actively representing in some currency.
我们尽可能得用货币来衡量它
It’s currently around 80 trillion US dollars.
目前约有800万亿美元
This is, not coincidentally, about the same as the world GDP.
M3和全球GDP一样 这可不是巧合
As remember, money started out as a trade enabler.
记住 钱最开始是贸易推动者
These numbers are just the current snapshot of where we are at.
这些数字只是我们目前资产的快照
Where will they be in a few years? Well, I don’t know.
过几年又会怎样呢 我也不知道
But probably higher than they are today,
但可能比它们现在要高
as the worldwide amount of money supply is steadily increasing. How so?
随着全球货币供应量稳定上升 又会怎样呢
“Money Creation & Debt”
货币创造和债务
There are two ways in which money is created.
创造货币有两种途径
One is through the central bank, a public institution with special powers,
一种是通过是由中央银行这类拥有特殊权利的公共机构
usually granted by the parliament.
通常由国会授权
Among other things, it has the power to literally print money.
其权力范围就包括印刷纸币
What created in the form of credit,
或是创造存款
which then gets to commercial banks or states
存入商业银行或州政府
by buying assets or government debt from them
通过向其购买资产和政府债券
These dollars can then be spent and or lent out
这些资金随后被消费或贷出去
which is how they end up in circulation.
最终进入到货币流通中去
However, in most nations, the central bank makes up for less than 10 percent of money creation.
然而 大多数国家的中央银行所占货币创造份额 不足百分之十
Most of it is created by commercial banks
大多数货币来自商业银行
or, as most people refer to them, just banks.
也就是大家口中的银行
They use a method called fractional reserve banking,
它们采用一种部分准备金银行的制度
which brings those back to you.
再把资金返还给你
So you save your piggy bank money of a hundred dollars in an actual bank.
所以你从猪猪存钱罐拿出100美元存入银行
The bank can safely assume that you won’t run in tomorrow and claim back your entire money.
银行可以确信你不会第二天跑回来取钱
In fact, they play a statistical game.
事实上 他们在玩一个统计学游戏
They assume that of all their clients’ deposits
他们默认所有客户的存款
they won’t have to pay out more than 10 percent at any point in time.
任何时候 所付利息都不超过百分之十
So they can lend out the rest, right?
所以他们可以借出去剩下的钱 是这样吗
Even better. They say the entire deposits are their 10 percent
不仅如此 他们对外夸大资金总额九倍
and they can create and lend out 9 times that amount of money.
因此他们可以创造和借出这笔钱的九倍
So for a hundred dollars that they got from your piggy bank,
所以凭着从你存钱罐里拿的100美元
they can now lend out another 900 dollars
他们现在可以借出额外的900美元
in money that didn’t exist before .
而这些钱之前并不存在
Like a magician, they can just make it appear.
像个[哔]魔术师 就这样凭空让钱变多了
But since they can’t literally print money,
但因为它们不能真的印刷钱
they create it in the form of credit,
它们就通过借贷来创造资金
meaning they say it’s it’s there, just believe us,
就像是 他们说“钱在那 相信我们就好
but just don’t try ever to spend it all at once.
但 别一次把钱花光”
Because if everyone tried to do that,
因为 如果每个人都这样一次花光
We’d have what is called the bank run.
那么就会造成银行挤兑
Everyone would realize that in fact only 10 percent of it was ever really there.
大家就会意识到 实际上银行只有百分之十的钱
And because banks don’t like to be GG by their clients,
而银行又不想因为客户而破产
they will, in such situations, impose a daily drawdown limit.
在这种情况下 他们必须限制每日提取金额
Praying to their god, Monetus,
然后向神祈祷 阿弥陀佛
that the system stabilizes and the bank run stops before
这种体制稳定 银行挤兑在
the bank runs out of money.
钱用完之前会停止
The extent which the central bank can control this creation of money
中央银行控制这种货币创造的程度
is only by changing those 10 percent,
只有这百分之十
the so-called reserve ratio.
也称之为准备金比率
If they increase it, it means that the banks need to keep a higher relative reserve,
提高比率 也就意味着银行要提高相对储备金
which means that they can lend out less, thus create less new money.
也就是 可借出的钱变少 从而减少新创造的资金
That level of control assigned money creation is largely privatized,
这种控制指定货币创造的程度很大部分私有化
and follows the rules of supply and demand.
遵循供求规律
If money supply goes up, the price of a currency should drop
如果货币供应量增加 那么钱就会贬值
and we should expect inflation.
通货膨胀也随之而来
If money supply goes down, we should expect the opposite.
如果货币供应量减少 通货紧缩也不足为奇
Money supply. Check! What about money demand?
货币供应量 搞定 那货币需求呢
Money Demand & Debt
货币需求和债务
Did you notice how every dollar of money is connected to a dollar of debt? Whichever way money is created,
你有没有意识到不论钱哪来的 钱债都是不分家的
the institution which gave it away wants it or something else and return at some point.
机构会发行货币或是替代品(某种程度上而言)
While this has been the origin of many conspiracy TVs,
这因此成了许多阴谋论的起源
it’s actually just a reflection of the fact
实际上 这只是对现实的反映:
that money has no inherent value,
钱没有内在价值
but it’s just a representational value.
只是价值的表现形式
If a dollar bill won’t ultimately be the claim on a dollar of debt,
如果最终一美元不和一美元的债务等价
or, in other words, a dollar of value created by someone somewhere else,
或换言之 一美元的价值有了其他表现形式
then all it will be is just a piece of paper, with a nice drawing on it.
那它不过是一张图画好看的纸罢了
So does that mean that we can never get rid of our debt
所以这意味着我们永远都摆脱不了债务吗
as long as there are dollars in circulation and nobody can ever really get ahead?
只要货币在流通 就没人赶在它前面吗
No! Example time.
不!时间就是个例子
Let’s say you go to the bank, borrow money,
我们假设你去银行借钱
meaning you take on debt to use that money to build a house.
也就是说你贷款盖了一栋房子
So at the end of the day you took money that didn’t exist before
所以最后你是拿着之前不存在的钱
to create value that didn’t exist before and
创造了之前不存在的价值
exchange for debt that didn’t exist before.
换来了之前不存在的债务
Cool. The money now entered the system through construction firms and whatever,
6!这笔钱现在到了建筑公司那边
which means that the money supply has increased
这表示货币供应量增加了 M0除外
with the exception of M0, because commercial banks don’t print money, remember?
因为商业银行不印刷钱 可记得?
Now you go to work every day,
现在你每天工作
meaning you trade your skill and time for other people’s dollars,
意味着你用自己的技术和时间换别人的钱
这些钱可能有你最初
some of which might as well be the dollars which your bank created for you to build your house in the first place.
盖房子从银行借的那部分
Mind blown.
太不可思议了
And eventually pay back the money,
最终你偿还了这笔钱
meaning you cancel out your debt,
意味着你取消了债务
which means that you owns zero dollars and has zero debt.
意味着你既没有存款 也没有债务
What you keep at the end of all this rigmarole is the value of your house.
繁琐程序过后 你得到的是房子的价值
The flow of money occurs hand in hand with the value creation process
货币流动与价值创造过程密切相关
where underlying value is being built up.
而潜在价值也因此得以创造
And the more things we create each year,
我们每年创造的东西越多
the more money we need to represent this value we created that year.
那年创造出代表价值的货币也就更多
While the amount of broad money supply M3/GDP is currently around 80 trillion dollars,
而广义货币供应M3 / GDP总额
目前约为80万亿
the total amount of built up value or global assets
逐步增长的价值总量或全球资产
is currently around 260 trillion dollars.
目前约为260万亿美元
So next time you were broke and believed the big bank conspiracy has screwed you.
所以下次你破产怀疑银行搞阴谋害你时
Just remember:
要记住
Money has no inherent value. It’s basically just a trade enabler.
钱没有内在价值 它只是交易的促成者
The Japanese used to have rice money. LOL.
日本过去把米当钱使 ⌒∇⌒
Most money creation is privatized.
货币创造大多是私人化的
Bank runs are bad.
银行挤兑不好
Go build a house.
去盖栋房子
【音乐】
【完】