Digital People FAQ var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Digital People FAQ", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/digital-people-faq/", "datePublished": "2021-07-27T17:27:38.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-08-12T02:54:40.000Z", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/jerry-rice-square2-2.png", "width": 650, "height": 414 }, "description": "Companion piece to "Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal."", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://www.cold-takes.com/" } } .gh-post-upgrade-cta-content, .gh-post-upgrade-cta { display: flex; 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gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\_site\_ids = clicky\_site\_ids || []; clicky\_site\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Digital People FAQ By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Jul 27, 2021 23 min read Digital People FAQ ================== Companion piece to "Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal." *Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"* Today's world Transformative AI Digital people World of Misaligned AI World run by Something else or or Stable, galaxy-wide civilization This is a companion piece to [Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world), which is the third in a series of posts about the possibility that we are in the [most important century for humanity](https://www.cold-takes.com/roadmap-for-the-most-important-century-series/). This piece discusses basic questions about "digital people," e.g., extremely detailed, realistic computer simulations of specific people. This is a hypothetical (but, I believe, realistic) technology that could be key for a transition to a [stable, galaxy-wide civilization](https://www.cold-takes.com/all-possible-views-about-humanitys-future-are-wild/). (The [other piece](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world) describes the *consequences* of such a technology; this piece focuses on basic questions about how it might work.) It will be important to have this picture, because I'm going to argue that AI advances this century could quickly lead to digital people or similarly significant technology. The transformative potential of something like digital people, combined with how quickly AI could lead to it, form the case that we could be in the most important century. This table (also in the other piece) serves as a summary of the two pieces together: | | **Normal humans** | **Digital people** | | **Possible today** ([More](#are-digital-people-possible)) | Yes | No | | **Probably possible someday** ([More](#are-digital-people-possible)) | Yes | Yes | | **Can interact with the real world**, do most jobs ([More](#could-digital-people-interact-with-the-real-world-for-example-could-a-real-world-company-hire-a-digital-person-to-work-for-it)) | Yes | Yes | | **Conscious**, should have human rights ([More](#could-digital-people-be-conscious-could-they-deserve-human-rights)) | Yes | Yes | | **Easily duplicated**, ala [The Duplicator](https://www.cold-takes.com/the-duplicator) ([More](#basics-of-digital-people-repeated-from-main-piece)) | No | Yes | | **Can be run sped-up** ([More](#basics-of-digital-people-repeated-from-main-piece)) | No | Yes | | Can make **"temporary copies"** that run fast, then retire at slow speed ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#productivity)) | No | Yes | | **Productivity and social science:** could cause unprecedented economic growth, productivity, and knowledge of human nature and behavior ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#productivity)) | No | Yes | | **Control of the environment**: can have their experiences altered in any way ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#virtual-reality-and-control-of-the-environment)) | No | Yes | | **Lock-in**: could live in highly stable civilizations with no aging or death, and "digital resets" stopping certain changes ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#lock-in)) | No | Yes | | **Space expansion:** can live comfortably anywhere computers can run, thus highly suitable for galaxy-wide expansion ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#space-expansion)) | No | Yes | | **Good or bad?** ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#would-these-impacts-be-a-good-or-bad-thing)) | Outside the scope of this piece | Could be very good or bad | Table of contents for this FAQ \------------------------------ * [Basics](#basics) \+ [Basics of digital people](#basics-of-digital-people-repeated-from-main-piece)+ [I'm finding this hard to imagine. Can you use an analogy?](#i'm-finding-this-hard-to-imagine-can-you-use-an-analogy)+ [Could digital people interact with the real world? For example, could a real-world company hire a digital person to work for it?](#could-digital-people-interact-with-the-real-world-for-example-could-a-real-world-company-hire-a-digital-person-to-work-for-it)* [Humans and digital people](#humans-and-digital-people) \+ [Could digital people be conscious? Could they deserve human rights?](#could-digital-people-be-conscious-could-they-deserve-human-rights)+ [Let's say you're wrong, and digital people couldn't be conscious. How would that affect your views about how they could change the world?](#let's-say-you're-wrong-and-digital-people-couldn't-be-conscious-how-would-that-affect-your-views-about-how-they-could-change-the-world)* [Feasibility](#feasibility) \+ [Are digital people possible?](#are-digital-people-possible)+ [How soon could digital people be possible?](#how-soon-could-digital-people-be-possible)* [Other questions](#other-questions) \+ [I'm having trouble picturing a world of digital people - how the technology could be introduced, how they would interact with us, etc. Can you lay out a detailed scenario of what the transition from today's world to a world full of digital people might look like?](#i'm-having-trouble-picturing-a-world-of-digital-people-how-the-technology-could-be-introduced-how-they-would-interact-with-us-etc-can-you-lay-out-a-detailed-scenario-of-what-the-transition-from-today's-world-to-a-world-full-of-digital-people-might-look-like)+ [Are digital people different from mind uploads?](#are-digital-people-different-from-mind-uploads)+ [Would a digital copy of me be me?](#would-a-digital-copy-of-me-be-me)+ [What other questions can I ask?](#what-other-questions-can-i-ask)+ [Why does all of this matter?](#why-does-all-of-this-matter) Basics \------ ### Basics of digital people To get the idea of digital people, imagine a computer simulation of a specific person, in a virtual environment. For example, a simulation of you that reacts to all "virtual events" (virtual hunger, virtual weather, a virtual computer with an inbox) just as you would. The movie *The Matrix* gives a decent intuition for the idea with its fully-immersive virtual reality. But unlike the heroes of *The Matrix*, a digital person need not be connected to any physical person - they could exist as pure software.[1](#fn1) Like other software, digital people could be copied (ala [The Duplicator](https://www.cold-takes.com/the-duplicator/)) and run at different speeds. And their virtual environments wouldn't have to obey the rules of the real world - they could work however the environment designers wanted. These properties drive most of the [consequences](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3/#how-could-digital-people-change-the-world) I talk about in the main piece. ### I'm finding this hard to imagine. Can you use an analogy? There isn't anything today that's much like a digital person, but to start approaching the idea, consider this simulated person: ![(Pixelated football player)](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/jerry-rice-1-1.png "image_tooltip") That's legendary football player Jerry Rice, as portrayed in the video game [Madden NFL 98](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden_NFL_98). He probably represents the best anyone at that time (1997) could do to simulate the real Jerry Rice, in the context of a football game. The idea is that this video game character runs, jumps, makes catches, drops the ball, and responds to tackles as closely as possible to how the real Jerry Rice would, in analogous situations. (At least, this is what he does when the video game player isn't explicitly controlling him.) The simulation is a very crude, simplified, limited-to-football-games version of real life. Over the years, video games have advanced, and their simulations of Jerry Rice - as well as the rest of the players, the football field, etc. - have become more and more realistic:[2](#fn2) ![Progressively more realistic video-game portrayals of football legend Jerry Rice](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/jerry-rice-compilation.png "image_tooltip") OK, the last one is a photo of the real Jerry Rice. But imagine that the video game designers kept making their Jerry Rice simulations more and more realistic and the game's universe more and more expansive,[3](#fn3) to the point where their simulated Jerry Rice would give interviews to virtual reporters, joke around with his virtual children, file his virtual taxes, and do *everything* else *exactly* how the real Jerry Rice would. In this case, the simulated Jerry Rice would have a mind that works just like the real Jerry Rice's. It would be a "digital person" version of Jerry Rice. Now imagine that one could do the same for ~everyone, and you're imagining a world of digital people. ### Could digital people interact with the real world? For example, could a real-world company hire a digital person to work for it? Yes and yes. * A digital person could be connected to a robot body. Cameras could feed in light signals to the digital person's mind, and microphones could feed in sound signals; the digital person could send out signals to e.g. move their hand, which would go to the robot. Humans can generally learn to control implants this way, so it seems very likely that digital people could learn to pilot robots. * Digital people might inhabit a virtual "office" with a virtual monitor displaying their web browser, a virtual keyboard they could type on, etc. They could use this setup to send information over the internet just as biological humans do (and as today's bots do). So they could answer emails, write and send memos, tweet, and do other "remote work" pretty normally, without needing any real-world "body." \+ The virtual office need not be like the real world in all its detail - a pretty simple virtual environment with a basic "virtual computer" could be enough for a digital person to do most "remote work."* They could also do phone and video calls with biological humans, by transmitting their "virtual face/voice" back to the biological human on the other end. Overall, it seems you could have the same relationship to a digital person that you can have to any person whom you never meet in the flesh. Humans and digital people \------------------------- ### Could digital people be conscious? Could they deserve human rights? Say there is a detailed digital copy of you, sending/receiving signals to/from a virtual body in a virtual world. The digital person sends signals telling the virtual body to put their hand on a virtual stove. As a consequence, the digital person receives signals that correspond to their hand burning. The digital person processes these signals and sends further signals to their mouth to cry out "Ow!" and to their hand to jerk away from the virtual stove. Does this digital person feel pain? Are they really "conscious" or "sentient" or "alive?" Relatedly, should we consider their experience of burning to be an unfortunate event, one we wish had been prevented so they wouldn't have to go through this? This is a question not about physics or biology, but about philosophy. And a full answer is outside the scope of this piece. I believe **sufficiently detailed and accurate simulations of humans would be conscious, to the same degree and for the same reasons that humans are conscious.**[4](#fn4) It's hard to put a probability on this when it's not totally clear what the statement even means, but I believe it is the best available conclusion given the state of academic philosophy of mind. I expect this view to be fairly common, though not universal, among philosophers of mind.[5](#fn5) I will give an abbreviated explanation for why, via a couple of thought experiments. **Thought experiment 1.** Imagine one could somehow replace a neuron in my brain with a "digital neuron": an electrical device, made out of the same sorts of things today's computers are made out of instead of what my neurons are made out of, that recorded input from other neurons (perhaps using a camera to monitor the various signals they were sending) and sent output to them in exactly the same pattern as the old neuron. If we did this, I wouldn't behave differently in any way, or have any way of "noticing" the difference. Now imagine that one did the same to every other neuron in my brain, one by one - such that my brain ultimately contained only "digital neurons" connected to each other, receiving input signals from my eyes/ears/etc. and sending output signals to my arms/feet/etc. I would still not behave differently in any way, or have any way of "noticing." As you swapped out all the neurons, I would not notice the vividness of my thoughts dimming. Reasoning: if I did notice the vividness of my thoughts dimming, the "noticing" would affect me in ways that could ultimately change my behavior. For example, I might remark on the vividness of my thoughts dimming. But we've already specified that nothing about the inputs and outputs of my brain change, which means nothing about my behavior could change. Now imagine that one could remove the set of interconnected "digital neurons" from my head, and feed in similar input signals and output signals directly (instead of via my eyes/ears/etc.). This would be a digital version of me: a simulation of my brain, running on a computer. And at no point would I have noticed anything changing - no diminished consciousness, no muted feelings, etc. **Thought experiment 2**. Imagine that I was talking with a digital copy of myself - an extremely detailed simulation of me that reacted to every situation just as I would. If I asked my digital copy whether he's conscious, he would insist that he is (just as I would in response to the same question). If I explained and demonstrated his situation (e.g., that he's "virtual") and asked whether he still thinks he's conscious, he would continue to insist that he is (just as I would, if I went through the experience of being shown that I was being simulated on some computer - something my current observations can't rule out). I doubt there's any argument that could ever convince my digital counterpart that he's not conscious. If a reasoning process that works just like mine, with access to all the same facts I have access to, is convinced of "digital-Holden is conscious," what rational basis could I have for thinking this is wrong? **General points:** * I imagine that whatever else consciousness is, it is the cause of things like "I say that that I am conscious," and the source of my observations about my own conscious experience. The fact that my brain is made out of neurons (as opposed to computer chips or something else) isn't something that plays any role in my propensity to say I'm conscious, or in the observations I make about my own conscious experience: if my brain were a computer instead of a set of neurons, sending the same output signals, I would express all of the same beliefs and observations about my own conscious experience. * The cause of my statements about consciousness and the source of my observations about my own consciousness is not something about *the material my brain is made of;* rather, it is something about *the patterns of information processing my brain performs.* A computer performing the same patterns of information processing would therefore have as much reason to think itself conscious as I do. * Finally, my understanding from talking to physicists is that many of them believe there is some important sense in which "the universe can only be fundamentally understood as patterns of information processing," and that the distinction between e.g. neurons and computer processors seems unlikely to have anything "deep" to it.[6](#fn6) **For longer takes on this topic,** see: * Section 9 of [The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis](http://consc.net/papers/singularity.pdf) by David Chalmers. Similar reasoning appears in part III of Chalmers's book [The Conscious Mind](https://smile.amazon.com/Conscious-Mind-Search-Fundamental-Philosophy/dp/<PHONE>/). * [Zombies Redacted](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7DmA3yWwa6AT5jFXt/zombies-redacted) by Eliezer Yudkowsky. This is more informal and less academic, and its arguments are more similar to the one I make above. ### Let's say you're wrong, and digital people couldn't be conscious. How would that affect your views about how they could change the world? Say we could make digital duplicates of today's humans, but they weren't conscious. In that case: * They could still be enormously productive compared to biological humans. And studying them could still shed light on human nature and behavior. So the [Productivity](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3/#productivity) and [Social Science](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3/#social-science) sections would be pretty unchanged. * They would still believe themselves to be conscious (since we do, and they'd be simulations of us). They could still seek to expand throughout space and establish stable/"locked-in" communities to preserve the values they care about. * Due to their productivity and huge numbers, I'd expect the population of digital people to determine what the long-run future of the galaxy looks like - including for biological humans. * The overall stakes would be lower, if the massive numbers of digital people throughout the galaxy and the virtual experiences they had "didn't matter." But the stakes would still be quite high, since how digital people set up the galaxy would determine what life was like for biological humans. Feasibility \----------- ### Are digital people possible? They certainly aren't possible today. We have no idea how to create a piece of software that would "respond" to video and audio data (e.g., sending the same signals to talk, move, etc.) the way a particular human would. We can't simply copy and simulate human brains, because relatively little is known about what the human brain does. Neuroscientists have very limited ability to make observations about it.[8](#fn8) (We can do a pretty good job simulating some of the key *inputs* to the brain - cameras seem to capture images about as well as human eyes, and microphones seem to capture sound about as well as human ears.[9](#fn9)) Digital people are a hypothetical technology, and we may one day discover that they are impossible. But to my knowledge, there isn't any current reason to believe they're impossible. I personally would bet that they will eventually be possible - at least via mind uploading (scanning and simulating human brains).[10](#fn10) I think it is a matter of (a) neuroscience advancing to the point where we can thoroughly observe and characterize the key details of what human brains are doing - potentially a very long road, but not an endless one; (b) writing software that simulates those key details; (c) running the software simulation on a computer; (d) providing a "good enough" virtual body and virtual environment, which could be quite simple (enabling e.g. talking, reading, and typing would go a long way).I'd guess that (a) is the hard part, and would guess that (c) could be done even on today's computer hardware.[11](#fn11) I won't elaborate on this in this piece, but might do so in the future if there's [interest](#survey). ### How soon could digital people be possible? I don't think we have a good way of forecasting when neuroscientists will understand the brain well enough to get started on mind uploading - other than to say that we don't seem anywhere near this today. The reason I think digital people could come in the next few decades is different: I think we could invent *something else* (mainly, advanced artificial intelligence) that dramatically speeds up scientific research. If that happens, we could see all sorts of new world-changing technologies emerge quickly - including digital people. I also think that thinking about digital people helps form intuitions about just how productive and powerful advanced AI could be (I'll discuss this in a future piece). Other questions \--------------- ### I'm having trouble picturing a world of digital people - how the technology could be introduced, how they would interact with us, etc. Can you lay out a detailed scenario of what the transition from today's world to a world full of digital people might look like? I'll give one example of how things could go. It's skewed somewhat to the optimistic side so it doesn't immediately become dystopia. And it's skewed toward the "familiar" side: I don't explore all the potential radical consequences of digital people. Nothing else in the piece depends on this story being accurate; the only goal is to make it a bit easier to picture this world and think about the motivations of the people in it. So imagine that: One day, a working mind uploading technology becomes available. For simplicity, let's assume that it is modestly priced from the beginning.[7](#fn7) What this means: anyone who wants can have their brain scanned, creating a "digital copy" of themselves. A few tens of thousands of people create "digital copies" of themselves. So there are now tens of thousands of digital people living in a simple virtual environment, consisting of simple office buildings, apartments and parks. Initially, each digital person thinks just like some non-digital person they were copied from, although as time goes on, their life experiences and thinking styles diverge. Each digital person gets to design their own "virtual body" that represents them in the environment. (This is a bit like choosing an avatar - the bodies need to be in a normal range of height, weight, strength, etc. but are pretty customizable.) The computer server running all of the digital people, and the virtual environment they inhabit, is privately owned. However, thanks to prescient regulation, the digital people themselves are considered to be people with full legal rights (not property of their creators or of the server company). They make their own choices, subject to the law, and they have some basic initial protections, such as: * In order for them to continue existing, the owner of the server they're on must choose to run them. However, each digital person initially must have a pre-paid long-term contract with whatever server company is running them at first, so they can be assured of existing for a long time - say, at least 100 years from their biological copy's date of birth - if they want to. * They must be fully informed of their situation as a digital person and be given other information about what's going on, how to contact key people, etc. (Relatedly, initially only people 18 years and older can be digitally copied, although later digital people can have their own "digital children" - see below.) * Their initial virtual environment has to initially meet certain criteria (e.g., no violence or suffering inflicted on them, ample virtual food and water). They have their own bank account that starts with some money in it, and they can make more just like biological people do (e.g., by doing work for some company). * The server owner cannot make any significant changes to their virtual environment without their consent (other than ceasing to run them at all, which they can do after the contract runs out after some number of decades). Digital people may request, and offer money for, changes to their virtual environment (though any other affected digital people would need to give their consent too). * The server owner must cease running any digital people who requests to stop existing. Digital people form professional and personal relationships with each other. They also form personal and professional relationships with biological humans, whom they communicate with via email, video chat, etc. * They might work for the first company offering digital copying of humans, doing research on how to make future digital people cheaper to run. * They might stay in touch with the biological person they were copied from, exchanging emails about their personal lives. * They would almost certainly be interested in ensuring that no biological humans interfered with their server in unwelcome ways (such as by shutting it off). Some digital people fall in love and get married. A couple is able to "have children" by creating a new digital person whose mind is a hybrid of their two minds. Initially (subject to child abuse protections) they can decide how their child appears in the virtual environment, and even make some tweaks such as "When the child's brain sends a signal to poop, a rainbow comes out instead." The child gains rights as they age, as biological humans do. Digital people are also allowed to copy themselves, as long as they are able to meet the requirements for new digital people (guarantee of being able to live for a reasonably long time, etc.) Copies have their own rights and don't owe anything to their creators. The population of digital people grows, via people copying themselves and having children. Eventually (perhaps quickly, as discussed below), there are far more digital people than biological humans. Still, some digital people work for, employ or have personal relationships (via email, video chat, etc.) with biological humans. * Many digital people work on making further population growth possible - by making it cheaper to run digital people, by building more computers (in the "real" world), by finding new sources of raw materials and energy for computers (also in the "real" world), etc. * Many other digital people work on designing ever-more-creative virtual environments, some based on real-world locations, some more exotic (altered physics, etc.) Some virtual environments are designed to be lived in, while others are designed to be visited for recreation. Access is sold to digital people who want to be transferred to these environments. So digital people are doing work, entertaining themselves, meeting each other, reproducing, etc. In these respects their lives have a fair amount in common with ours. * Like us, they have some incentive to work for money - they need to pay for server costs if they want to keep existing for more than their initial contract says, or if they want to copy themselves or have children (they need to buy long server contracts for any such new digital people), or if they want to participate in various recreational environments and activities. * Unlike us, they can do things like copying themselves, running at different speeds, changing their virtual bodies, entering exotic virtual environments (e.g., zero gravity), etc. The prescient regulators have carved out ways for large groups of digital people to form their own virtual states and civilizations, which can set and change their own regulations. **Dystopian alternatives.** A world of digital people could very quickly get dystopian if there were worse regulation, or no regulation. For example, imagine if the rule were "Whoever owns the server can run whatever they want on it." Then people might make digital copies of themselves that they ran experiments on, forced to do work, and even open-sourced, so that anyone running a server could make and abuse copies. [This very short story](https://qntm.org/mmacevedo) (recommended, but chilling) gives a flavor for what that might be like. There are other (more gradual) ways for a world of digital people to become dystopian, as outlined [here](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3/#lock-in) (unassailable authoritarianism) and in [The Duplicator](https://www.cold-takes.com/the-duplicator/) (people racing to make copies of each other and dominate the population). **And what are the biological humans up to?** Throughout this section, I've talked about how the world would be *for digital people*, not for normal biological humans. I'm more focused on that, because I expect that digital people would quickly become most of the population, and I think we should [care about them as much as we care about biological humans](#humans-and-digital-people). But if you're wondering what things would be like for biological humans, I'd expect that: * Digital people, due to their numbers and running speeds, would become the dominant political and military players in the world. They would probably be the people determining what biological humans' lives would be like. * There would be very rapid scientific and technological advancement (as discussed below). So assuming digital people and biological humans stayed on good terms, I'd expect biological humans to have access to technology far beyond today's. At a minimum, I expect this would mean pretty much unlimited medical technologies (including e.g. "curing" aging and having indefinitely long lifespans). ### Are digital people different from mind uploads? [Mind uploading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) refers to simulating a human brain on a computer. (It is usually implied that this would not literally be an isolated brain, i.e., it would include some sort of virtual environment and body for the person being simulated, or perhaps they would be piloting a robot.) A mind upload would be one form of digital person, and most of this piece could have been written about mind uploads. Mind uploads are the most easy-to-imagine version of digital people, and I focus on them when I talk about [why I think digital people will someday be possible](#are-digital-people-possible) and [why they would be conscious like we are](#could-digital-people-be-conscious-could-they-deserve-human-rights). But I could also imagine a future of "digital people" that are not derived from copying human brains, or even all that similar to today's humans. I think it's reasonably likely that by the time digital people are possible (or pretty soon afterward), they will be quite different from today's humans.[12](#fn12) Most of this piece would apply to roughly any digital entities that (a) had moral value and human rights, like non-digital people; (b) could interact with their environments with equal (or greater) skill and ingenuity to today's people. With enough understanding of how (a) and (b) work, it could be possible to design digital people without imitating human brains. I'll be referring to digital people a lot throughout [this series](https://www.cold-takes.com/roadmap-for-the-most-important-century-series/) to indicate how radically different the future could be. I don't want to be read as saying that this would necessarily involve copying actual human brains. ### Would a digital copy of me be me? Say that someone scanned my brain and created a simulation of it on a computer: a digital copy of me. Would this count as "me"? Should I hope that this digital person has a good life, as much as I hope that for myself? This is another philosophy question. My basic answer is "Sort of, but it doesn't really matter much." This piece is about how radically digital people could change the world; this doesn't depend on whether we identify with our own digital copies. It *does* depend (somewhat) on whether digital people should be considered "full persons" in the sense that we care about them, want them to avoid bad experiences, etc. The section on consciousness is more relevant to this question. ### What other questions can I ask? So many more! E.g.:  ### Why does all of this matter? The piece that this is a companion for, [Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world), spells out a number of ways in which digital people could lead to a radically unfamiliar future. Elsewhere in [this series](https://www.cold-takes.com/roadmap-for-the-most-important-century-series/), I'm going to argue that AI advances this century could quickly lead to digital people or similarly significant technology. The transformative potential of something like digital people, combined with how quickly AI could lead to it, form the case that we could be in the most important century. 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Use "Forum" if you want to discuss this post publicly on the Effective Altruism Forum.* \--- Footnotes \--------- 1\. The agents ("bad guys") are more like digital people. In fact, one extensively [copies himself](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poLPKdc-zTY&t;=130s&ab;_channel=FlashbackFM). [↩](#fnref1)- These are all taken from [this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5qufkwBnUc&ab;_channel=MilesDawkins247), except for the last one. [↩](#fnref2)- Football video games have already expanded to simulate [offseason tradings, signings and setting ticket prices](https://madden.fandom.com/wiki/Franchise_mode). [↩](#fnref3)- It's also possible there could be conscious "digital people" who did not resemble today's humans, but I won't go into that here - I'll just focus on the concrete example of "digital people" that are virtual versions of humans. [↩](#fnref4)- According to the [PhilPapers Surveys](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl), 56.5% of philosophers endorse [physicalism](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/physicalism/), vs. 27.1% who endorse non-physicalism and 16.4% "other." I expect the vast majority of philosophers who endorse [physicalism](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/physicalism/) to agree that a sufficiently detailed simulation of a human would be conscious. (My understanding is that [biological naturalism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_naturalism) is a fringe/unpopular position, and that physicalism + rejecting biological naturalism would imply believing that sufficiently detailed simulations of humans would be conscious.) I also expect that *some* philosophers who don't endorse physicalism would still believe that such simulations would be conscious (David Chalmers is an example - see [The Conscious Mind](https://smile.amazon.com/Conscious-Mind-Search-Fundamental-Philosophy/dp/<PHONE>?sa-no-redirect=1)). These expectations are just based on my impressions of the field. [↩](#fnref5)- From an email from a physicist friend: "I think a lot of people have the intuition that real neural activity, produced by real chemical reactions from real neurotransmitters, and real electrical activity that you can feel with your hand, somehow has some property that mere computer code can't have. But one of the overwhelming messages of modern physics has been that everything that exists -- particles, fields, atoms, etc, is best thought of in terms of information, and may simply \*be\* information. The universe may perhaps be best described as a mathematical abstraction. Chemical reactions don't come from some essential property of atoms but instead from subtle interactions between their valence electron shells. Electrons and protons aren't well-defined particles, but abstract clouds of probability mass. Even the concept of "particles" is misleading; what seems to actually exist is quantum fields which are the solutions of abstract mathematical equations, and some of whose states are labeled by humans as "1 particle" or "2 particles". To be a bit metaphorical, we are like tiny ripples on vast abstract mathematical waves, ripples whose patterns and dynamics happen to execute the information processing corresponding to what we call sentience. If you ask me our existence and the substrate we live on is already much weirder and more ephemeral than anything we might upload humans onto." [↩](#fnref6)- I actually expect it would start off very expensive, but become cheaper very quickly due to a productivity explosion, discussed below. [↩](#fnref7)- For an illustration of this, see this report: [How much computational power does it take to match the human brain?](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report) (Particularly the [Uncertainty in neuroscience](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report#UncertaintyInNeuroscience) section.) Even estimating *how many* meaningful operations the human brain performs is, today, very difficult and fraught - let alone characterizing what those operations are. [↩](#fnref8)- This statement is based on my understanding of conventional wisdom plus the fact that recorded video and audio often seems quite realistic, implying that the camera/microphone didn't fail to record much important information about its source. [↩](#fnref9)- This is assuming technology continues to advance, the species doesn't go extinct, etc. [↩](#fnref10)- [This report concludes](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report#Conclusion) that a computer costing ~$10,000 today has enough computational power (10^14 FLOP/s, a measure of computational power) to be within 1/10 of the author's best guess at what it would take to replicate the input-output behavior of a human brain (10^15 FLOP/s). If we take the author's [high-end estimate](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report#TheLimitMethod) rather than best guess, it is about 10 million times as much computation (10^22 FLOP/s), which would presumably cost $1 trillion today - probably too high to be worth it, but computing is still getting cheaper. It's possible that replicating the input-output behavior alone wouldn't be enough detail to attain "consciousness," though I'd guess it would be, and either way it would be sufficient for the [productivity](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world#productivity)" and [social science](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world#social-science)" consequences. [↩](#fnref11)- I could also imagine a future in which the two key properties I list in the next paragraph - (a) moral value and human rights (b) human-level-or-above capabilities - were totally separated. That is, there could be a world full of (a) AIs with human-level-or-above capabilities, but no consciousness or moral value; (b) digital entities with moral value and conscious experience, but very few skills compared to AIs and even compared to today's people. Most of what I say in this piece about a world of "digital people" would apply to such a world; in this case you could sort of think of a "digital people" as "teams" of AIs and morally-valuable-but-low-skill entities. 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Digital People FAQ var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Digital People FAQ", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/digital-people-faq/", "datePublished": "2021-07-27T17:27:38.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-08-12T02:54:40.000Z", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/jerry-rice-square2-2.png", "width": 650, "height": 414 }, "description": "Companion piece to "Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal."", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://www.cold-takes.com/" } } .gh-post-upgrade-cta-content, .gh-post-upgrade-cta { display: flex; 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function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\\_site\\_ids = clicky\\_site\\_ids || []; clicky\\_site\\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Digital People FAQ By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Jul 27, 2021 23 min read Digital People FAQ ================== Companion piece to "Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal." *Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"* Today’s world Transformative AI Digital people World of Misaligned AI World run by Something else or or Stable, galaxy-wide civilization This is a companion piece to [Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world), which is the third in a series of posts about the possibility that we are in the [most important century for humanity](https://www.cold-takes.com/roadmap-for-the-most-important-century-series/). This piece discusses basic questions about "digital people," e.g., extremely detailed, realistic computer simulations of specific people. This is a hypothetical (but, I believe, realistic) technology that could be key for a transition to a [stable, galaxy-wide civilization](https://www.cold-takes.com/all-possible-views-about-humanitys-future-are-wild/). (The [other piece](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world) describes the *consequences* of such a technology; this piece focuses on basic questions about how it might work.) It will be important to have this picture, because I'm going to argue that AI advances this century could quickly lead to digital people or similarly significant technology. The transformative potential of something like digital people, combined with how quickly AI could lead to it, form the case that we could be in the most important century. This table (also in the other piece) serves as a summary of the two pieces together: | | **Normal humans** | **Digital people** | | **Possible today** ([More](#are-digital-people-possible)) | Yes | No | | **Probably possible someday** ([More](#are-digital-people-possible)) | Yes | Yes | | **Can interact with the real world**, do most jobs ([More](#could-digital-people-interact-with-the-real-world-for-example-could-a-real-world-company-hire-a-digital-person-to-work-for-it)) | Yes | Yes | | **Conscious**, should have human rights ([More](#could-digital-people-be-conscious-could-they-deserve-human-rights)) | Yes | Yes | | **Easily duplicated**, ala [The Duplicator](https://www.cold-takes.com/the-duplicator) ([More](#basics-of-digital-people-repeated-from-main-piece)) | No | Yes | | **Can be run sped-up** ([More](#basics-of-digital-people-repeated-from-main-piece)) | No | Yes | | Can make **"temporary copies"** that run fast, then retire at slow speed ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#productivity)) | No | Yes | | **Productivity and social science:** could cause unprecedented economic growth, productivity, and knowledge of human nature and behavior ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#productivity)) | No | Yes | | **Control of the environment**: can have their experiences altered in any way ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#virtual-reality-and-control-of-the-environment)) | No | Yes | | **Lock-in**: could live in highly stable civilizations with no aging or death, and "digital resets" stopping certain changes ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#lock-in)) | No | Yes | | **Space expansion:** can live comfortably anywhere computers can run, thus highly suitable for galaxy-wide expansion ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#space-expansion)) | No | Yes | | **Good or bad?** ([More](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3#would-these-impacts-be-a-good-or-bad-thing)) | Outside the scope of this piece | Could be very good or bad | Table of contents for this FAQ \------------------------------ * [Basics](#basics) \+ [Basics of digital people](#basics-of-digital-people-repeated-from-main-piece)+ [I'm finding this hard to imagine. Can you use an analogy?](#i'm-finding-this-hard-to-imagine-can-you-use-an-analogy)+ [Could digital people interact with the real world? For example, could a real-world company hire a digital person to work for it?](#could-digital-people-interact-with-the-real-world-for-example-could-a-real-world-company-hire-a-digital-person-to-work-for-it)* [Humans and digital people](#humans-and-digital-people) \+ [Could digital people be conscious? Could they deserve human rights?](#could-digital-people-be-conscious-could-they-deserve-human-rights)+ [Let's say you're wrong, and digital people couldn't be conscious. How would that affect your views about how they could change the world?](#let's-say-you're-wrong-and-digital-people-couldn't-be-conscious-how-would-that-affect-your-views-about-how-they-could-change-the-world)* [Feasibility](#feasibility) \+ [Are digital people possible?](#are-digital-people-possible)+ [How soon could digital people be possible?](#how-soon-could-digital-people-be-possible)* [Other questions](#other-questions) \+ [I'm having trouble picturing a world of digital people - how the technology could be introduced, how they would interact with us, etc. Can you lay out a detailed scenario of what the transition from today's world to a world full of digital people might look like?](#i'm-having-trouble-picturing-a-world-of-digital-people-how-the-technology-could-be-introduced-how-they-would-interact-with-us-etc-can-you-lay-out-a-detailed-scenario-of-what-the-transition-from-today's-world-to-a-world-full-of-digital-people-might-look-like)+ [Are digital people different from mind uploads?](#are-digital-people-different-from-mind-uploads)+ [Would a digital copy of me be me?](#would-a-digital-copy-of-me-be-me)+ [What other questions can I ask?](#what-other-questions-can-i-ask)+ [Why does all of this matter?](#why-does-all-of-this-matter) Basics \------ ### Basics of digital people To get the idea of digital people, imagine a computer simulation of a specific person, in a virtual environment. For example, a simulation of you that reacts to all "virtual events" (virtual hunger, virtual weather, a virtual computer with an inbox) just as you would. The movie *The Matrix* gives a decent intuition for the idea with its fully-immersive virtual reality. But unlike the heroes of *The Matrix*, a digital person need not be connected to any physical person - they could exist as pure software.[1](#fn1) Like other software, digital people could be copied (ala [The Duplicator](https://www.cold-takes.com/the-duplicator/)) and run at different speeds. And their virtual environments wouldn't have to obey the rules of the real world - they could work however the environment designers wanted. These properties drive most of the [consequences](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3/#how-could-digital-people-change-the-world) I talk about in the main piece. ### I'm finding this hard to imagine. Can you use an analogy? There isn't anything today that's much like a digital person, but to start approaching the idea, consider this simulated person: ![(Pixelated football player)](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/jerry-rice-1-1.png "image_tooltip") That's legendary football player Jerry Rice, as portrayed in the video game [Madden NFL 98](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden_NFL_98). He probably represents the best anyone at that time (1997) could do to simulate the real Jerry Rice, in the context of a football game. The idea is that this video game character runs, jumps, makes catches, drops the ball, and responds to tackles as closely as possible to how the real Jerry Rice would, in analogous situations. (At least, this is what he does when the video game player isn't explicitly controlling him.) The simulation is a very crude, simplified, limited-to-football-games version of real life. Over the years, video games have advanced, and their simulations of Jerry Rice - as well as the rest of the players, the football field, etc. - have become more and more realistic:[2](#fn2) ![Progressively more realistic video-game portrayals of football legend Jerry Rice](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/jerry-rice-compilation.png "image_tooltip") OK, the last one is a photo of the real Jerry Rice. But imagine that the video game designers kept making their Jerry Rice simulations more and more realistic and the game's universe more and more expansive,[3](#fn3) to the point where their simulated Jerry Rice would give interviews to virtual reporters, joke around with his virtual children, file his virtual taxes, and do *everything* else *exactly* how the real Jerry Rice would. In this case, the simulated Jerry Rice would have a mind that works just like the real Jerry Rice's. It would be a "digital person" version of Jerry Rice. Now imagine that one could do the same for ~everyone, and you're imagining a world of digital people. ### Could digital people interact with the real world? For example, could a real-world company hire a digital person to work for it? Yes and yes. * A digital person could be connected to a robot body. Cameras could feed in light signals to the digital person's mind, and microphones could feed in sound signals; the digital person could send out signals to e.g. move their hand, which would go to the robot. Humans can generally learn to control implants this way, so it seems very likely that digital people could learn to pilot robots. * Digital people might inhabit a virtual "office" with a virtual monitor displaying their web browser, a virtual keyboard they could type on, etc. They could use this setup to send information over the internet just as biological humans do (and as today's bots do). So they could answer emails, write and send memos, tweet, and do other "remote work" pretty normally, without needing any real-world "body." \+ The virtual office need not be like the real world in all its detail - a pretty simple virtual environment with a basic "virtual computer" could be enough for a digital person to do most "remote work."* They could also do phone and video calls with biological humans, by transmitting their "virtual face/voice" back to the biological human on the other end. Overall, it seems you could have the same relationship to a digital person that you can have to any person whom you never meet in the flesh. Humans and digital people \------------------------- ### Could digital people be conscious? Could they deserve human rights? Say there is a detailed digital copy of you, sending/receiving signals to/from a virtual body in a virtual world. The digital person sends signals telling the virtual body to put their hand on a virtual stove. As a consequence, the digital person receives signals that correspond to their hand burning. The digital person processes these signals and sends further signals to their mouth to cry out "Ow!" and to their hand to jerk away from the virtual stove. Does this digital person feel pain? Are they really "conscious" or "sentient" or "alive?" Relatedly, should we consider their experience of burning to be an unfortunate event, one we wish had been prevented so they wouldn't have to go through this? This is a question not about physics or biology, but about philosophy. And a full answer is outside the scope of this piece. I believe **sufficiently detailed and accurate simulations of humans would be conscious, to the same degree and for the same reasons that humans are conscious.**[4](#fn4) It's hard to put a probability on this when it's not totally clear what the statement even means, but I believe it is the best available conclusion given the state of academic philosophy of mind. I expect this view to be fairly common, though not universal, among philosophers of mind.[5](#fn5) I will give an abbreviated explanation for why, via a couple of thought experiments. **Thought experiment 1.** Imagine one could somehow replace a neuron in my brain with a "digital neuron": an electrical device, made out of the same sorts of things today's computers are made out of instead of what my neurons are made out of, that recorded input from other neurons (perhaps using a camera to monitor the various signals they were sending) and sent output to them in exactly the same pattern as the old neuron. If we did this, I wouldn't behave differently in any way, or have any way of "noticing" the difference. Now imagine that one did the same to every other neuron in my brain, one by one - such that my brain ultimately contained only "digital neurons" connected to each other, receiving input signals from my eyes/ears/etc. and sending output signals to my arms/feet/etc. I would still not behave differently in any way, or have any way of "noticing." As you swapped out all the neurons, I would not notice the vividness of my thoughts dimming. Reasoning: if I did notice the vividness of my thoughts dimming, the "noticing" would affect me in ways that could ultimately change my behavior. For example, I might remark on the vividness of my thoughts dimming. But we've already specified that nothing about the inputs and outputs of my brain change, which means nothing about my behavior could change. Now imagine that one could remove the set of interconnected "digital neurons" from my head, and feed in similar input signals and output signals directly (instead of via my eyes/ears/etc.). This would be a digital version of me: a simulation of my brain, running on a computer. And at no point would I have noticed anything changing - no diminished consciousness, no muted feelings, etc. **Thought experiment 2**. Imagine that I was talking with a digital copy of myself - an extremely detailed simulation of me that reacted to every situation just as I would. If I asked my digital copy whether he's conscious, he would insist that he is (just as I would in response to the same question). If I explained and demonstrated his situation (e.g., that he's "virtual") and asked whether he still thinks he's conscious, he would continue to insist that he is (just as I would, if I went through the experience of being shown that I was being simulated on some computer - something my current observations can't rule out). I doubt there's any argument that could ever convince my digital counterpart that he's not conscious. If a reasoning process that works just like mine, with access to all the same facts I have access to, is convinced of "digital-Holden is conscious," what rational basis could I have for thinking this is wrong? **General points:** * I imagine that whatever else consciousness is, it is the cause of things like "I say that that I am conscious," and the source of my observations about my own conscious experience. The fact that my brain is made out of neurons (as opposed to computer chips or something else) isn't something that plays any role in my propensity to say I'm conscious, or in the observations I make about my own conscious experience: if my brain were a computer instead of a set of neurons, sending the same output signals, I would express all of the same beliefs and observations about my own conscious experience. * The cause of my statements about consciousness and the source of my observations about my own consciousness is not something about *the material my brain is made of;* rather, it is something about *the patterns of information processing my brain performs.* A computer performing the same patterns of information processing would therefore have as much reason to think itself conscious as I do. * Finally, my understanding from talking to physicists is that many of them believe there is some important sense in which "the universe can only be fundamentally understood as patterns of information processing," and that the distinction between e.g. neurons and computer processors seems unlikely to have anything "deep" to it.[6](#fn6) **For longer takes on this topic,** see: * Section 9 of [The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis](http://consc.net/papers/singularity.pdf) by David Chalmers. Similar reasoning appears in part III of Chalmers's book [The Conscious Mind](https://smile.amazon.com/Conscious-Mind-Search-Fundamental-Philosophy/dp/0195117891/). * [Zombies Redacted](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7DmA3yWwa6AT5jFXt/zombies-redacted) by Eliezer Yudkowsky. This is more informal and less academic, and its arguments are more similar to the one I make above. ### Let's say you're wrong, and digital people couldn't be conscious. How would that affect your views about how they could change the world? Say we could make digital duplicates of today's humans, but they weren't conscious. In that case: * They could still be enormously productive compared to biological humans. And studying them could still shed light on human nature and behavior. So the [Productivity](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3/#productivity) and [Social Science](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3/#social-science) sections would be pretty unchanged. * They would still believe themselves to be conscious (since we do, and they'd be simulations of us). They could still seek to expand throughout space and establish stable/"locked-in" communities to preserve the values they care about. * Due to their productivity and huge numbers, I'd expect the population of digital people to determine what the long-run future of the galaxy looks like - including for biological humans. * The overall stakes would be lower, if the massive numbers of digital people throughout the galaxy and the virtual experiences they had "didn't matter." But the stakes would still be quite high, since how digital people set up the galaxy would determine what life was like for biological humans. Feasibility \----------- ### Are digital people possible? They certainly aren't possible today. We have no idea how to create a piece of software that would "respond" to video and audio data (e.g., sending the same signals to talk, move, etc.) the way a particular human would. We can't simply copy and simulate human brains, because relatively little is known about what the human brain does. Neuroscientists have very limited ability to make observations about it.[8](#fn8) (We can do a pretty good job simulating some of the key *inputs* to the brain - cameras seem to capture images about as well as human eyes, and microphones seem to capture sound about as well as human ears.[9](#fn9)) Digital people are a hypothetical technology, and we may one day discover that they are impossible. But to my knowledge, there isn't any current reason to believe they're impossible. I personally would bet that they will eventually be possible - at least via mind uploading (scanning and simulating human brains).[10](#fn10) I think it is a matter of (a) neuroscience advancing to the point where we can thoroughly observe and characterize the key details of what human brains are doing - potentially a very long road, but not an endless one; (b) writing software that simulates those key details; (c) running the software simulation on a computer; (d) providing a "good enough" virtual body and virtual environment, which could be quite simple (enabling e.g. talking, reading, and typing would go a long way).I'd guess that (a) is the hard part, and would guess that (c) could be done even on today's computer hardware.[11](#fn11) I won't elaborate on this in this piece, but might do so in the future if there's [interest](#survey). ### How soon could digital people be possible? I don't think we have a good way of forecasting when neuroscientists will understand the brain well enough to get started on mind uploading - other than to say that we don't seem anywhere near this today. The reason I think digital people could come in the next few decades is different: I think we could invent *something else* (mainly, advanced artificial intelligence) that dramatically speeds up scientific research. If that happens, we could see all sorts of new world-changing technologies emerge quickly - including digital people. I also think that thinking about digital people helps form intuitions about just how productive and powerful advanced AI could be (I'll discuss this in a future piece). Other questions \--------------- ### I'm having trouble picturing a world of digital people - how the technology could be introduced, how they would interact with us, etc. Can you lay out a detailed scenario of what the transition from today's world to a world full of digital people might look like? I'll give one example of how things could go. It's skewed somewhat to the optimistic side so it doesn't immediately become dystopia. And it's skewed toward the "familiar" side: I don't explore all the potential radical consequences of digital people. Nothing else in the piece depends on this story being accurate; the only goal is to make it a bit easier to picture this world and think about the motivations of the people in it. So imagine that: One day, a working mind uploading technology becomes available. For simplicity, let's assume that it is modestly priced from the beginning.[7](#fn7) What this means: anyone who wants can have their brain scanned, creating a "digital copy" of themselves. A few tens of thousands of people create "digital copies" of themselves. So there are now tens of thousands of digital people living in a simple virtual environment, consisting of simple office buildings, apartments and parks. Initially, each digital person thinks just like some non-digital person they were copied from, although as time goes on, their life experiences and thinking styles diverge. Each digital person gets to design their own "virtual body" that represents them in the environment. (This is a bit like choosing an avatar - the bodies need to be in a normal range of height, weight, strength, etc. but are pretty customizable.) The computer server running all of the digital people, and the virtual environment they inhabit, is privately owned. However, thanks to prescient regulation, the digital people themselves are considered to be people with full legal rights (not property of their creators or of the server company). They make their own choices, subject to the law, and they have some basic initial protections, such as: * In order for them to continue existing, the owner of the server they're on must choose to run them. However, each digital person initially must have a pre-paid long-term contract with whatever server company is running them at first, so they can be assured of existing for a long time - say, at least 100 years from their biological copy's date of birth - if they want to. * They must be fully informed of their situation as a digital person and be given other information about what's going on, how to contact key people, etc. (Relatedly, initially only people 18 years and older can be digitally copied, although later digital people can have their own "digital children" - see below.) * Their initial virtual environment has to initially meet certain criteria (e.g., no violence or suffering inflicted on them, ample virtual food and water). They have their own bank account that starts with some money in it, and they can make more just like biological people do (e.g., by doing work for some company). * The server owner cannot make any significant changes to their virtual environment without their consent (other than ceasing to run them at all, which they can do after the contract runs out after some number of decades). Digital people may request, and offer money for, changes to their virtual environment (though any other affected digital people would need to give their consent too). * The server owner must cease running any digital people who requests to stop existing. Digital people form professional and personal relationships with each other. They also form personal and professional relationships with biological humans, whom they communicate with via email, video chat, etc. * They might work for the first company offering digital copying of humans, doing research on how to make future digital people cheaper to run. * They might stay in touch with the biological person they were copied from, exchanging emails about their personal lives. * They would almost certainly be interested in ensuring that no biological humans interfered with their server in unwelcome ways (such as by shutting it off). Some digital people fall in love and get married. A couple is able to "have children" by creating a new digital person whose mind is a hybrid of their two minds. Initially (subject to child abuse protections) they can decide how their child appears in the virtual environment, and even make some tweaks such as "When the child's brain sends a signal to poop, a rainbow comes out instead." The child gains rights as they age, as biological humans do. Digital people are also allowed to copy themselves, as long as they are able to meet the requirements for new digital people (guarantee of being able to live for a reasonably long time, etc.) Copies have their own rights and don't owe anything to their creators. The population of digital people grows, via people copying themselves and having children. Eventually (perhaps quickly, as discussed below), there are far more digital people than biological humans. Still, some digital people work for, employ or have personal relationships (via email, video chat, etc.) with biological humans. * Many digital people work on making further population growth possible - by making it cheaper to run digital people, by building more computers (in the "real" world), by finding new sources of raw materials and energy for computers (also in the "real" world), etc. * Many other digital people work on designing ever-more-creative virtual environments, some based on real-world locations, some more exotic (altered physics, etc.) Some virtual environments are designed to be lived in, while others are designed to be visited for recreation. Access is sold to digital people who want to be transferred to these environments. So digital people are doing work, entertaining themselves, meeting each other, reproducing, etc. In these respects their lives have a fair amount in common with ours. * Like us, they have some incentive to work for money - they need to pay for server costs if they want to keep existing for more than their initial contract says, or if they want to copy themselves or have children (they need to buy long server contracts for any such new digital people), or if they want to participate in various recreational environments and activities. * Unlike us, they can do things like copying themselves, running at different speeds, changing their virtual bodies, entering exotic virtual environments (e.g., zero gravity), etc. The prescient regulators have carved out ways for large groups of digital people to form their own virtual states and civilizations, which can set and change their own regulations. **Dystopian alternatives.** A world of digital people could very quickly get dystopian if there were worse regulation, or no regulation. For example, imagine if the rule were "Whoever owns the server can run whatever they want on it." Then people might make digital copies of themselves that they ran experiments on, forced to do work, and even open-sourced, so that anyone running a server could make and abuse copies. [This very short story](https://qntm.org/mmacevedo) (recommended, but chilling) gives a flavor for what that might be like. There are other (more gradual) ways for a world of digital people to become dystopian, as outlined [here](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/009448a3-8d29-499a-ab3b-a162582adef3/#lock-in) (unassailable authoritarianism) and in [The Duplicator](https://www.cold-takes.com/the-duplicator/) (people racing to make copies of each other and dominate the population). **And what are the biological humans up to?** Throughout this section, I've talked about how the world would be *for digital people*, not for normal biological humans. I'm more focused on that, because I expect that digital people would quickly become most of the population, and I think we should [care about them as much as we care about biological humans](#humans-and-digital-people). But if you're wondering what things would be like for biological humans, I'd expect that: * Digital people, due to their numbers and running speeds, would become the dominant political and military players in the world. They would probably be the people determining what biological humans' lives would be like. * There would be very rapid scientific and technological advancement (as discussed below). So assuming digital people and biological humans stayed on good terms, I'd expect biological humans to have access to technology far beyond today's. At a minimum, I expect this would mean pretty much unlimited medical technologies (including e.g. "curing" aging and having indefinitely long lifespans). ### Are digital people different from mind uploads? [Mind uploading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) refers to simulating a human brain on a computer. (It is usually implied that this would not literally be an isolated brain, i.e., it would include some sort of virtual environment and body for the person being simulated, or perhaps they would be piloting a robot.) A mind upload would be one form of digital person, and most of this piece could have been written about mind uploads. Mind uploads are the most easy-to-imagine version of digital people, and I focus on them when I talk about [why I think digital people will someday be possible](#are-digital-people-possible) and [why they would be conscious like we are](#could-digital-people-be-conscious-could-they-deserve-human-rights). But I could also imagine a future of "digital people" that are not derived from copying human brains, or even all that similar to today's humans. I think it's reasonably likely that by the time digital people are possible (or pretty soon afterward), they will be quite different from today's humans.[12](#fn12) Most of this piece would apply to roughly any digital entities that (a) had moral value and human rights, like non-digital people; (b) could interact with their environments with equal (or greater) skill and ingenuity to today's people. With enough understanding of how (a) and (b) work, it could be possible to design digital people without imitating human brains. I'll be referring to digital people a lot throughout [this series](https://www.cold-takes.com/roadmap-for-the-most-important-century-series/) to indicate how radically different the future could be. I don't want to be read as saying that this would necessarily involve copying actual human brains. ### Would a digital copy of me be me? Say that someone scanned my brain and created a simulation of it on a computer: a digital copy of me. Would this count as "me"? Should I hope that this digital person has a good life, as much as I hope that for myself? This is another philosophy question. My basic answer is "Sort of, but it doesn't really matter much." This piece is about how radically digital people could change the world; this doesn't depend on whether we identify with our own digital copies. It *does* depend (somewhat) on whether digital people should be considered "full persons" in the sense that we care about them, want them to avoid bad experiences, etc. The section on consciousness is more relevant to this question. ### What other questions can I ask? So many more! E.g.:  ### Why does all of this matter? The piece that this is a companion for, [Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world), spells out a number of ways in which digital people could lead to a radically unfamiliar future. Elsewhere in [this series](https://www.cold-takes.com/roadmap-for-the-most-important-century-series/), I'm going to argue that AI advances this century could quickly lead to digital people or similarly significant technology. The transformative potential of something like digital people, combined with how quickly AI could lead to it, form the case that we could be in the most important century. 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Use "Forum" if you want to discuss this post publicly on the Effective Altruism Forum.* \--- Footnotes \--------- 1\. The agents ("bad guys") are more like digital people. In fact, one extensively [copies himself](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poLPKdc-zTY&t;=130s&ab;_channel=FlashbackFM). [↩](#fnref1)- These are all taken from [this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5qufkwBnUc&ab;_channel=MilesDawkins247), except for the last one. [↩](#fnref2)- Football video games have already expanded to simulate [offseason tradings, signings and setting ticket prices](https://madden.fandom.com/wiki/Franchise_mode). [↩](#fnref3)- It's also possible there could be conscious "digital people" who did not resemble today's humans, but I won't go into that here - I'll just focus on the concrete example of "digital people" that are virtual versions of humans. [↩](#fnref4)- According to the [PhilPapers Surveys](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl), 56.5% of philosophers endorse [physicalism](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/physicalism/), vs. 27.1% who endorse non-physicalism and 16.4% "other." I expect the vast majority of philosophers who endorse [physicalism](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/physicalism/) to agree that a sufficiently detailed simulation of a human would be conscious. (My understanding is that [biological naturalism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_naturalism) is a fringe/unpopular position, and that physicalism + rejecting biological naturalism would imply believing that sufficiently detailed simulations of humans would be conscious.) I also expect that *some* philosophers who don't endorse physicalism would still believe that such simulations would be conscious (David Chalmers is an example - see [The Conscious Mind](https://smile.amazon.com/Conscious-Mind-Search-Fundamental-Philosophy/dp/0195117891?sa-no-redirect=1)). These expectations are just based on my impressions of the field. [↩](#fnref5)- From an email from a physicist friend: "I think a lot of people have the intuition that real neural activity, produced by real chemical reactions from real neurotransmitters, and real electrical activity that you can feel with your hand, somehow has some property that mere computer code can't have. But one of the overwhelming messages of modern physics has been that everything that exists -- particles, fields, atoms, etc, is best thought of in terms of information, and may simply \\*be\\* information. The universe may perhaps be best described as a mathematical abstraction. Chemical reactions don't come from some essential property of atoms but instead from subtle interactions between their valence electron shells. Electrons and protons aren't well-defined particles, but abstract clouds of probability mass. Even the concept of "particles" is misleading; what seems to actually exist is quantum fields which are the solutions of abstract mathematical equations, and some of whose states are labeled by humans as "1 particle" or "2 particles". To be a bit metaphorical, we are like tiny ripples on vast abstract mathematical waves, ripples whose patterns and dynamics happen to execute the information processing corresponding to what we call sentience. If you ask me our existence and the substrate we live on is already much weirder and more ephemeral than anything we might upload humans onto." [↩](#fnref6)- I actually expect it would start off very expensive, but become cheaper very quickly due to a productivity explosion, discussed below. [↩](#fnref7)- For an illustration of this, see this report: [How much computational power does it take to match the human brain?](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report) (Particularly the [Uncertainty in neuroscience](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report#UncertaintyInNeuroscience) section.) Even estimating *how many* meaningful operations the human brain performs is, today, very difficult and fraught - let alone characterizing what those operations are. [↩](#fnref8)- This statement is based on my understanding of conventional wisdom plus the fact that recorded video and audio often seems quite realistic, implying that the camera/microphone didn't fail to record much important information about its source. [↩](#fnref9)- This is assuming technology continues to advance, the species doesn't go extinct, etc. [↩](#fnref10)- [This report concludes](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report#Conclusion) that a computer costing ~$10,000 today has enough computational power (10^14 FLOP/s, a measure of computational power) to be within 1/10 of the author's best guess at what it would take to replicate the input-output behavior of a human brain (10^15 FLOP/s). If we take the author's [high-end estimate](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report#TheLimitMethod) rather than best guess, it is about 10 million times as much computation (10^22 FLOP/s), which would presumably cost $1 trillion today - probably too high to be worth it, but computing is still getting cheaper. It's possible that replicating the input-output behavior alone wouldn't be enough detail to attain "consciousness," though I'd guess it would be, and either way it would be sufficient for the [productivity](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world#productivity)" and [social science](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world#social-science)" consequences. [↩](#fnref11)- I could also imagine a future in which the two key properties I list in the next paragraph - (a) moral value and human rights (b) human-level-or-above capabilities - were totally separated. That is, there could be a world full of (a) AIs with human-level-or-above capabilities, but no consciousness or moral value; (b) digital entities with moral value and conscious experience, but very few skills compared to AIs and even compared to today's people. Most of what I say in this piece about a world of "digital people" would apply to such a world; in this case you could sort of think of a "digital people" as "teams" of AIs and morally-valuable-but-low-skill entities. [↩](#fnref12) Powered by [Ghost](https://ghost.org/) #### Popular tags [sports](/tag/sports/) [innovationstagnation](/tag/innovationstagnation/) [2star](/tag/2star/) [utopia](/tag/utopia/) Subscribe to Cold Takes ======================= For audio version, search for "Cold Takes Audio" in your podcast app Subscribe **Great!** Check your inbox and click the link to confirm your subscription. **If you don't see it, check your spam!** Please enter a valid email address! $("#lower-right-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1458'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-1").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-2").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#cover-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1472'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#footer-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1473'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#final-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1474'); }); //When someone clicks an anchor link, I want the sticky nav to go away. $("a").click(function(f) { body.removeClass('sticky-visible'); lastSt = 9999999999999}); function ctlight() { html.removeClass('theme-dark').addClass('theme-light'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\\_theme', 'light'); //$(".gh-portal-triggerbtn-container").css("background","#0000dd"); /\\* document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#0000dd'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#ffffff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#1a1a1a'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#1a1a1a');\\*/ // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(0px,0)"); // $(".single-content").css("font-weight","400"); existingTheme = "light"; } function ctdark() { html.removeClass('theme-light').addClass('theme-dark'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\\_theme', 'dark'); /\\*document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#5ceaff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#18141f'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#fff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#fff');\\*/ //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#14101b'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#121212'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#282c35'); //$(".single-content").css("font-weight","300"); // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(19px,0)"); existingTheme = "dark"; } //For light/dark toggle $(".CT-toggle").click(function(g) { g.preventDefault(); if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctlight(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctdark(); } } ); // Parse the URL parameter, then log goal if it is a completed subscription. 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