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if I were a billion years old.

If I were a billion years old, a lot of today's events would feel - not
unimportant at all (every person's life is a hugely important), but -
predictably fleeting
[https://www.cold-takes.com/the-great-stagnation-in-full-historical-context/],
the kind of thing I could be sure to forget about in the next million years or
so, whether or not I should.

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} } //Implement light/dark theme if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctdark(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctlight(); } window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\_site\_ids = clicky\_site\_ids || []; clicky\_site\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - If I were a billion years old By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Oct 14, 2021 2 min read If I were a billion years old ============================= One way of summarizing what a lot of this blog is about: I'm trying to write as if I were a billion years old. If I were a billion years old, a lot of today's events would feel - not unimportant at all (every person's life is a hugely important), but - predictably [fleeting](https://www.cold-takes.com/the-great-stagnation-in-full-historical-context/), the kind of thing I could be sure to forget about in the next million years or so, whether or not I should. But not everything would feel this way. I think I'd have felt something pretty durably important was happening when humans first started using tools, about 3 million years ago (which would feel to me like about 6 weeks ago).[1](#fn1) I mean, that would have felt like something quite new and unpredictable. And then the population explosion of the [Neolithic Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), about 12,000 years ago (so like 4 hours ago), followed by the rise of cities and states, would have been pretty wild. But the [Industrial Revolution](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/11/8/<PHONE>/human-history-in-one-chart-industrial-revolution) - that would have made me freak the !@#$ out. Population went up about 10x, the skies filled with smoke (and then [started to clear again in some places](https://ourworldindata.org/outdoor-air-pollution?country=#the-long-term-decline-of-air-pollution-in-rich-countries)), the streets filled with cars and skyscrapers, planes started flying through the air and even dropped a couple of nuclear bombs, the first-ever spaceships left Earth, and people started building computers - the first new kind of high-capacity computing devices since brains. All of this in the last few hundred years. So like a few minutes ago. So here I am. I've been hanging out watching animals for about [half my life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambrian_explosion) (and being bored by plants and bacteria before that), tool-using humans for about 6 weeks, and … SO MUCH STUFF … for the last few minutes. I am now paying RAPT attention, and I'm furiously trying to figure out what comes next. I'm making charts of [when the new kinds of brains are going to get as powerful as the old kinds of brains](https://www.cold-takes.com/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today/), and trying to understand [trends in quality of life](https://www.cold-takes.com/has-life-gotten-better/) to get a handle on where it might be going next. Definitely [honing my critical thinking skills](https://www.cold-takes.com/does-x-cause-y-an-in-depth-evidence-review/) and trying to [figure out whom to trust](https://www.cold-takes.com/prediction-track-records-i-know-of/). And fine, also watching some [great videos about sports](https://www.cold-takes.com/give-sports-a-chance/). But *mostly* trying to stay focused on what matters most for the long run. [![Twitter](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-twitter-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Folden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old&ct;=1) [![Facebook](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-facebook-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Folden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old&ct;=1) [![Reddit](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-reddit-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/reddit/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Folden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old&ct;=1) [![More](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-addthis-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/menu/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Folden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old&ct;=1) [Subscribe](https://www.cold-takes.com/olden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me/#subscribe) [Feedback](https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/4kal2ue/run?posttitle=If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old) \--- Footnotes \--------- 1\. I'm 40, so I'm just multiplying numbers like this by (40/1,000,000,000) to get how they would feel to the 1,000,000,000-year-old version of me. If you enjoy this kind of thing, also check out the [cosmic calendar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_Calendar). [↩](#fnref1) For email filter: florpschmop Powered by [Ghost](https://ghost.org/) #### Popular tags [sports](/tag/sports/) [innovationstagnation](/tag/innovationstagnation/) [2star](/tag/2star/) [utopia](/tag/utopia/) Subscribe to Cold Takes ======================= For audio version, search for "Cold Takes Audio" in your podcast app Subscribe **Great!** Check your inbox and click the link to confirm your subscription. **If you don't see it, check your spam!** Please enter a valid email address! $("#lower-right-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1458'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-1").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-2").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#cover-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1472'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#footer-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1473'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#final-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1474'); }); //When someone clicks an anchor link, I want the sticky nav to go away. $("a").click(function(f) { body.removeClass('sticky-visible'); lastSt = 9999999999999}); function ctlight() { html.removeClass('theme-dark').addClass('theme-light'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\_theme', 'light'); //$(".gh-portal-triggerbtn-container").css("background","#0000dd"); /\* document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#0000dd'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#ffffff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#1a1a1a'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#1a1a1a');\*/ // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(0px,0)"); // $(".single-content").css("font-weight","400"); existingTheme = "light"; } function ctdark() { html.removeClass('theme-light').addClass('theme-dark'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\_theme', 'dark'); /\*document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#5ceaff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#18141f'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#fff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#fff');\*/ //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#14101b'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#121212'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#282c35'); //$(".single-content").css("font-weight","300"); // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(19px,0)"); existingTheme = "dark"; } //For light/dark toggle $(".CT-toggle").click(function(g) { g.preventDefault(); if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctlight(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctdark(); } } ); // Parse the URL parameter, then log goal if it is a completed subscription. 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If I were a billion years old var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "If I were a billion years old", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/olden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me/", "datePublished": "2021-10-14T15:58:52.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-10-20T15:07:06.000Z", "description": "One way of summarizing what a lot of this blog is about: I’m trying to write as\nif I were a billion years old.\n\n\n\nIf I were a billion years old, a lot of today’s events would feel - not\nunimportant at all (every person’s life is a hugely important), but -\npredictably fleeting\n[https://www.cold-takes.com/the-great-stagnation-in-full-historical-context/],\nthe kind of thing I could be sure to forget about in the next million years or\nso, whether or not I should.\n\nBut not everything would feel this ", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://www.cold-takes.com/" } } .gh-post-upgrade-cta-content, .gh-post-upgrade-cta { display: flex; 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function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\\_site\\_ids = clicky\\_site\\_ids || []; clicky\\_site\\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - If I were a billion years old By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Oct 14, 2021 2 min read If I were a billion years old ============================= One way of summarizing what a lot of this blog is about: I’m trying to write as if I were a billion years old. If I were a billion years old, a lot of today’s events would feel - not unimportant at all (every person’s life is a hugely important), but - predictably [fleeting](https://www.cold-takes.com/the-great-stagnation-in-full-historical-context/), the kind of thing I could be sure to forget about in the next million years or so, whether or not I should. But not everything would feel this way. I think I’d have felt something pretty durably important was happening when humans first started using tools, about 3 million years ago (which would feel to me like about 6 weeks ago).[1](#fn1) I mean, that would have felt like something quite new and unpredictable. And then the population explosion of the [Neolithic Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), about 12,000 years ago (so like 4 hours ago), followed by the rise of cities and states, would have been pretty wild. But the [Industrial Revolution](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/11/8/18052076/human-history-in-one-chart-industrial-revolution) - that would have made me freak the !@#$ out. Population went up about 10x, the skies filled with smoke (and then [started to clear again in some places](https://ourworldindata.org/outdoor-air-pollution?country=#the-long-term-decline-of-air-pollution-in-rich-countries)), the streets filled with cars and skyscrapers, planes started flying through the air and even dropped a couple of nuclear bombs, the first-ever spaceships left Earth, and people started building computers - the first new kind of high-capacity computing devices since brains. All of this in the last few hundred years. So like a few minutes ago. So here I am. I’ve been hanging out watching animals for about [half my life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambrian_explosion) (and being bored by plants and bacteria before that), tool-using humans for about 6 weeks, and … SO MUCH STUFF … for the last few minutes. I am now paying RAPT attention, and I’m furiously trying to figure out what comes next. I’m making charts of [when the new kinds of brains are going to get as powerful as the old kinds of brains](https://www.cold-takes.com/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today/), and trying to understand [trends in quality of life](https://www.cold-takes.com/has-life-gotten-better/) to get a handle on where it might be going next. Definitely [honing my critical thinking skills](https://www.cold-takes.com/does-x-cause-y-an-in-depth-evidence-review/) and trying to [figure out whom to trust](https://www.cold-takes.com/prediction-track-records-i-know-of/). And fine, also watching some [great videos about sports](https://www.cold-takes.com/give-sports-a-chance/). But *mostly* trying to stay focused on what matters most for the long run. [![Twitter](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-twitter-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Folden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old&ct;=1) [![Facebook](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-facebook-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Folden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old&ct;=1) [![Reddit](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-reddit-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/reddit/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Folden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old&ct;=1) [![More](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-addthis-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/menu/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Folden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old&ct;=1) [Subscribe](https://www.cold-takes.com/olden-the-imaginary-billion-year-old-version-of-me/#subscribe) [Feedback](https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/4kal2ue/run?posttitle=If%20I%20were%20a%20billion%20years%20old) \--- Footnotes \--------- 1\. I’m 40, so I’m just multiplying numbers like this by (40/1,000,000,000) to get how they would feel to the 1,000,000,000-year-old version of me. If you enjoy this kind of thing, also check out the [cosmic calendar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_Calendar). [↩](#fnref1) For email filter: florpschmop Powered by [Ghost](https://ghost.org/) #### Popular tags [sports](/tag/sports/) [innovationstagnation](/tag/innovationstagnation/) [2star](/tag/2star/) [utopia](/tag/utopia/) Subscribe to Cold Takes ======================= For audio version, search for "Cold Takes Audio" in your podcast app Subscribe **Great!** Check your inbox and click the link to confirm your subscription. **If you don't see it, check your spam!** Please enter a valid email address! $("#lower-right-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1458'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-1").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-2").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#cover-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1472'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#footer-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1473'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#final-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1474'); }); //When someone clicks an anchor link, I want the sticky nav to go away. $("a").click(function(f) { body.removeClass('sticky-visible'); lastSt = 9999999999999}); function ctlight() { html.removeClass('theme-dark').addClass('theme-light'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\\_theme', 'light'); //$(".gh-portal-triggerbtn-container").css("background","#0000dd"); /\\* document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#0000dd'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#ffffff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#1a1a1a'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#1a1a1a');\\*/ // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(0px,0)"); // $(".single-content").css("font-weight","400"); existingTheme = "light"; } function ctdark() { html.removeClass('theme-light').addClass('theme-dark'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\\_theme', 'dark'); /\\*document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#5ceaff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#18141f'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#fff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#fff');\\*/ //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#14101b'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#121212'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#282c35'); //$(".single-content").css("font-weight","300"); // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(19px,0)"); existingTheme = "dark"; } //For light/dark toggle $(".CT-toggle").click(function(g) { g.preventDefault(); if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctlight(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctdark(); } } ); // Parse the URL parameter, then log goal if it is a completed subscription. 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