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I set out on a quest to hear what they're hearing. ![Investigating musical genius by listening to the Beach Boys a lot](/content/images/size/w960/2022/02/beach-boys-wide.png) *I posted some later content on this piece - responding to reader takes - [here](https://www.cold-takes.com/misc-thematic-links/#innovation-stagnation).* My [Where's Today's Beethoven](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/) analysis involved finding a lot of "most critically acclaimed music/TV/film/books" lists, and charting patterns in them. While doing this, something I was very surprised to learn was that some of the Beach Boys's music is incredibly acclaimed, respected, and thought of as genius. In particular, their 1966 album [Pet Sounds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pet_Sounds) is the [#1 most acclaimed album of all time](http://www.acclaimedmusic.net/year/alltime_albums.htm), and their followup single [Good Vibrations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Vibrations) is the the [4th-most acclaimed song of all time](http://www.acclaimedmusic.net/year/alltime_songs.htm). As the Wikipedia pages show, this isn't some fluke of the rankings, e.g.: > Promoted there as "the most progressive pop album ever", Pet Sounds garnered recognition for its ambitious production, sophisticated music, and emotional lyric content. It is considered to be among the most influential albums in music history … > > > > > *Pet Sounds* revolutionized the field of [music production](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_production) and the role of producers within the music industry, introduced novel approaches to orchestration, [chord voicings](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voicing_(music)), and [structural harmonies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmony), and furthered the [cultural legitimization of popular music](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_music#Popular_music), a greater [public appreciation for albums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Album_era), the use of [recording studios as an instrument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recording_studio_as_an_instrument), and the development of [psychedelic music](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychedelic_music) and [progressive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_rock)/[art rock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_rock) ... > > > > > It has topped several critics' and musicians' polls for the best album of all time, including those published by *[NME](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NME)*, *[Mojo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mojo_(magazine))*, *[Uncut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncut_(magazine))*, and *[The Times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Times)*. In 2004, it was inducted into the [National Recording Registry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Recording_Registry) by the [Library of Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Library_of_Congress) … > > > > > Pet Sounds is evaluated as "one of the most innovative recordings in rock" and as the work that "elevated Brian Wilson from talented bandleader to studio genius".[118] Music historian Luis Sanchez viewed the album as "the score to a film about what rock music doesn't have to be …" > > After learning this, I tried listening to Pet Sounds several times, and was not able to figure out what the hoopla is about. It sounds like a cheesy pop album. I was unable to connect the experience of listening to [Wouldn't It Be Nice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZBKFoeDKJo&ab;_channel=pieandjoe1) to this statement: "it was out to eclipse ... previous sonic soap operas, to transform the subject's sappy sentiments with a God-like grace so that the song would become a veritable pocket symphony." (The term "pocket symphony" seems to come up a surprising amount for Beach Boys songs that have, as far as I can tell, 3 or so themes like most pop songs.) [God Only Knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u90beUXTKwo&ab;_channel=TheBeachBoys-Topic) is by far my favorite track on the album, but "often praised as one of the greatest songs ever written"? Hmm. After struggling with this for a while, I had a stroke of inspiration. I decided to listen to *all* of the Beach Boys albums in order.[1](#fn1) (The things I do to understand the world better! [Here's my playlist if you want to try it](https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3BtTwlHiFCcHBsMMdzooJj?si=0cb26970817c4f52).) And indeed, **after ~4 hours of the simplest, sappiest music imaginable, I could sort of hear Pet Sounds as something comparatively deeper and richer** - more challenging, more complex, more contemplative, more cohesive.[2](#fn2) In particular, a lot of the cheesy-seeming instrumental arrangements now sounded like some badly needed variety; maybe the at-the-time version of this reaction would've been "What creative instrumentation, it's like a symphony!" So maybe Pet Sounds was a remarkable new sound at the time? But, I think, only if you had a really fanatical commitment to only listening to the poppiest of pop music. **Pet Sounds came out more than a year after legendary jazz album [A Love Supreme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Love_Supreme)!** I don't want to get carried away about what my subjective taste says, but … even if A Love Supreme isn't your cup of tea, I'd guess you'll think it's a great deal more complex, cohesive, impressive, and interesting in just about every way (other than the lack of prominent "studio effects") than Pet Sounds. And it's not even clearly less accessible - looks like they sold a similar number of copies?[3](#fn3) A Love Supreme is ranked well below Pet Sounds on the [Acclaimed Music](http://www.acclaimedmusic.net/year/alltime_albums.htm) aggregated list, as well as on the [Rolling Stone list](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-lists/best-albums-of-all-time-<PHONE>/). Reading what the critics say about Pet Sounds, after listening to both works, is quite a trip - it reminds me of reading a parent's description of their child's art, with the most generous possible interpretation of the "genius" of every humdrum thing in there. This feels roughly as close as I'm going to get to a smoking gun that rock music critics are living in a strange, strange world. If that's right, I think we also have to question whether classical music critics - and our own minds - are playing similar strange tricks on us when they assert with such conviction that Beethoven's music is unparalleled. Or maybe I'm the one hearing (or failing to hear) things? I would love to hear from any readers who could give me any idea of what kind of headspace I'd have to inhabit to find Pet Sounds more impressive, enjoyable, or [any positive adjective][4](#fn4) than A Love Supreme! *I posted some later content on this piece - responding to reader takes - [here](https://www.cold-takes.com/misc-thematic-links/#innovation-stagnation).* For email filter: florpschmop [![Twitter](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-twitter-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Finvestigating-musical-genius-by-listening-to-the-beach-boys-a-lot%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Investigating%20musical%20genius%20by%20listening%20to%20the%20Beach%20Boys%20a%20lot&ct;=1) [![Facebook](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-facebook-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Finvestigating-musical-genius-by-listening-to-the-beach-boys-a-lot%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Investigating%20musical%20genius%20by%20listening%20to%20the%20Beach%20Boys%20a%20lot&ct;=1) [![Reddit](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-reddit-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/reddit/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Finvestigating-musical-genius-by-listening-to-the-beach-boys-a-lot%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Investigating%20musical%20genius%20by%20listening%20to%20the%20Beach%20Boys%20a%20lot&ct;=1) [![More](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-addthis-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/menu/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Finvestigating-musical-genius-by-listening-to-the-beach-boys-a-lot%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Investigating%20musical%20genius%20by%20listening%20to%20the%20Beach%20Boys%20a%20lot&ct;=1) [Comment/discuss](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/87AugxNfxAgAqR3mv/comments-for-shorter-cold-takes-pieces?commentId=ndypggTXxnTKZWdBB) \--- Footnotes \--------- 1\. While working on other things. I did not "just sit and listen" to all five hours of this. [↩](#fnref1)- I definitely could've been imagining it. [↩](#fnref2)- [Pet Sounds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pet_Sounds#Capitol_promotion_and_US_sales): "total sales were estimated at around 500,000 units." [A Love Supreme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Love_Supreme): "By 1970, it had sold about 500,000 copies." These aren't necessarily the same time frame, but I'm taking it as evidence that they're in the ballpark. [↩](#fnref3)- To be clear, I think some Beach Boys music is at least more "easy to enjoy" or "accessible" than A Love Supreme, even if it's not as complex or interesting. But Pet Sounds doesn't seem to accomplish either - it's weird and slow by Beach Boys standards, and as noted above, didn't sell better (at least probably not by much) than A Love Supreme, despite coming from a much more popular band. FWIW my favorite Beach Boys album is Beach Boys Party!, a really weird album that is mostly covers (of the Beatles, Bob Dylan and others) with a chattering crowd dubbed over it, kind of like a live performance at a party, but just … super weird. I think it revolutionized music. [↩](#fnref4) ###

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I set out on a quest to hear what they're hearing. ![Investigating musical genius by listening to the Beach Boys a lot](/content/images/size/w960/2022/02/beach-boys-wide.png) *I posted some later content on this piece - responding to reader takes - [here](https://www.cold-takes.com/misc-thematic-links/#innovation-stagnation).* My [Where’s Today’s Beethoven](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/) analysis involved finding a lot of “most critically acclaimed music/TV/film/books” lists, and charting patterns in them. While doing this, something I was very surprised to learn was that some of the Beach Boys’s music is incredibly acclaimed, respected, and thought of as genius. In particular, their 1966 album [Pet Sounds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pet_Sounds) is the [#1 most acclaimed album of all time](http://www.acclaimedmusic.net/year/alltime_albums.htm), and their followup single [Good Vibrations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Vibrations) is the the [4th-most acclaimed song of all time](http://www.acclaimedmusic.net/year/alltime_songs.htm). As the Wikipedia pages show, this isn’t some fluke of the rankings, e.g.: > Promoted there as "the most progressive pop album ever", Pet Sounds garnered recognition for its ambitious production, sophisticated music, and emotional lyric content. It is considered to be among the most influential albums in music history … > > > > > *Pet Sounds* revolutionized the field of [music production](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_production) and the role of producers within the music industry, introduced novel approaches to orchestration, [chord voicings](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voicing_(music)), and [structural harmonies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmony), and furthered the [cultural legitimization of popular music](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_music#Popular_music), a greater [public appreciation for albums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Album_era), the use of [recording studios as an instrument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recording_studio_as_an_instrument), and the development of [psychedelic music](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychedelic_music) and [progressive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_rock)/[art rock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_rock) ... > > > > > It has topped several critics' and musicians' polls for the best album of all time, including those published by *[NME](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NME)*, *[Mojo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mojo_(magazine))*, *[Uncut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncut_(magazine))*, and *[The Times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Times)*. In 2004, it was inducted into the [National Recording Registry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Recording_Registry) by the [Library of Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Library_of_Congress) … > > > > > Pet Sounds is evaluated as "one of the most innovative recordings in rock" and as the work that "elevated Brian Wilson from talented bandleader to studio genius".[118] Music historian Luis Sanchez viewed the album as "the score to a film about what rock music doesn't have to be …" > > After learning this, I tried listening to Pet Sounds several times, and was not able to figure out what the hoopla is about. It sounds like a cheesy pop album. I was unable to connect the experience of listening to [Wouldn't It Be Nice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZBKFoeDKJo&ab;_channel=pieandjoe1) to this statement: “it was out to eclipse ... previous sonic soap operas, to transform the subject's sappy sentiments with a God-like grace so that the song would become a veritable pocket symphony." (The term “pocket symphony” seems to come up a surprising amount for Beach Boys songs that have, as far as I can tell, 3 or so themes like most pop songs.) [God Only Knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u90beUXTKwo&ab;_channel=TheBeachBoys-Topic) is by far my favorite track on the album, but “often praised as one of the greatest songs ever written”? Hmm. After struggling with this for a while, I had a stroke of inspiration. I decided to listen to *all* of the Beach Boys albums in order.[1](#fn1) (The things I do to understand the world better! [Here’s my playlist if you want to try it](https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3BtTwlHiFCcHBsMMdzooJj?si=0cb26970817c4f52).) And indeed, **after ~4 hours of the simplest, sappiest music imaginable, I could sort of hear Pet Sounds as something comparatively deeper and richer** - more challenging, more complex, more contemplative, more cohesive.[2](#fn2) In particular, a lot of the cheesy-seeming instrumental arrangements now sounded like some badly needed variety; maybe the at-the-time version of this reaction would’ve been “What creative instrumentation, it’s like a symphony!” So maybe Pet Sounds was a remarkable new sound at the time? But, I think, only if you had a really fanatical commitment to only listening to the poppiest of pop music. **Pet Sounds came out more than a year after legendary jazz album [A Love Supreme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Love_Supreme)!** I don't want to get carried away about what my subjective taste says, but … even if A Love Supreme isn’t your cup of tea, I’d guess you’ll think it’s a great deal more complex, cohesive, impressive, and interesting in just about every way (other than the lack of prominent "studio effects") than Pet Sounds. And it's not even clearly less accessible - looks like they sold a similar number of copies?[3](#fn3) A Love Supreme is ranked well below Pet Sounds on the [Acclaimed Music](http://www.acclaimedmusic.net/year/alltime_albums.htm) aggregated list, as well as on the [Rolling Stone list](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-lists/best-albums-of-all-time-1062063/). Reading what the critics say about Pet Sounds, after listening to both works, is quite a trip - it reminds me of reading a parent's description of their child's art, with the most generous possible interpretation of the "genius" of every humdrum thing in there. This feels roughly as close as I’m going to get to a smoking gun that rock music critics are living in a strange, strange world. If that's right, I think we also have to question whether classical music critics - and our own minds - are playing similar strange tricks on us when they assert with such conviction that Beethoven's music is unparalleled. Or maybe I’m the one hearing (or failing to hear) things? I would love to hear from any readers who could give me any idea of what kind of headspace I’d have to inhabit to find Pet Sounds more impressive, enjoyable, or [any positive adjective][4](#fn4) than A Love Supreme! *I posted some later content on this piece - responding to reader takes - [here](https://www.cold-takes.com/misc-thematic-links/#innovation-stagnation).* For email filter: florpschmop [![Twitter](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-twitter-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Finvestigating-musical-genius-by-listening-to-the-beach-boys-a-lot%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Investigating%20musical%20genius%20by%20listening%20to%20the%20Beach%20Boys%20a%20lot&ct;=1) [![Facebook](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-facebook-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Finvestigating-musical-genius-by-listening-to-the-beach-boys-a-lot%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Investigating%20musical%20genius%20by%20listening%20to%20the%20Beach%20Boys%20a%20lot&ct;=1) [![Reddit](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-reddit-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/reddit/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Finvestigating-musical-genius-by-listening-to-the-beach-boys-a-lot%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Investigating%20musical%20genius%20by%20listening%20to%20the%20Beach%20Boys%20a%20lot&ct;=1) [![More](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-addthis-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/menu/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Finvestigating-musical-genius-by-listening-to-the-beach-boys-a-lot%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Investigating%20musical%20genius%20by%20listening%20to%20the%20Beach%20Boys%20a%20lot&ct;=1) [Comment/discuss](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/87AugxNfxAgAqR3mv/comments-for-shorter-cold-takes-pieces?commentId=ndypggTXxnTKZWdBB) \--- Footnotes \--------- 1\. While working on other things. I did not “just sit and listen” to all five hours of this. [↩](#fnref1)- I definitely could’ve been imagining it. [↩](#fnref2)- [Pet Sounds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pet_Sounds#Capitol_promotion_and_US_sales): “total sales were estimated at around 500,000 units.” [A Love Supreme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Love_Supreme): “By 1970, it had sold about 500,000 copies.” These aren’t necessarily the same time frame, but I’m taking it as evidence that they’re in the ballpark. [↩](#fnref3)- To be clear, I think some Beach Boys music is at least more “easy to enjoy” or “accessible” than A Love Supreme, even if it’s not as complex or interesting. But Pet Sounds doesn’t seem to accomplish either - it’s weird and slow by Beach Boys standards, and as noted above, didn’t sell better (at least probably not by much) than A Love Supreme, despite coming from a much more popular band. FWIW my favorite Beach Boys album is Beach Boys Party!, a really weird album that is mostly covers (of the Beatles, Bob Dylan and others) with a chattering crowd dubbed over it, kind of like a live performance at a party, but just … super weird. I think it revolutionized music. [↩](#fnref4) ###


Cost disease and civilizational decline var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Cost disease and civilizational decline", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/cost-disease-and-civilizational-decline/", "datePublished": "2022-01-27T18:47:30.000Z", "dateModified": "2022-01-27T18:55:47.000Z", "description": "Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.
Note that this recording combines a previous post
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"Cost disease" is a term sometimes used to refer to the rising costs (over the
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} } //Implement light/dark theme if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctdark(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctlight(); } window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\_site\_ids = clicky\_site\_ids || []; clicky\_site\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Cost disease and civilizational decline By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Jan 27, 2022 6 min read Cost disease and civilizational decline ======================================= *Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc. Note that this recording combines a [previous post](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/) with this one.* "Cost disease" is a term sometimes used to refer to the **rising costs (over the past several decades) of particular goods and services - particularly education (both K-12 and higher education), health care, real estate, and infrastructure (e.g., subway stations) - without commensurately rising benefits.** It's been discussed at length on Slate Star Codex, [here](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost-disease/) and [here](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/17/highlights-from-the-comments-on-cost-disease/). I've often heard people citing "cost disease" as an indicator of general "civilizational decline." I've even seen it lumped in with the ["Where's Today's Beethoven?" question](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/), along these rough lines: > **Collapsing civilizational competence hypothesis (CCCH):**we have so much wealth and technology, we have such a huge population, and yet - we collectively can't match the [music or literature](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/) of the past, or its [scientific innovation](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/), or its ability to provide an [affordable education and health care](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost-disease/), or even its subway station construction. Something is badly broken in our culture. The CCCH is an intriguing claim - especially so, I think, because we are naturally [biased toward imagining the past as a golden age](https://ourworldindata.org/optimism-pessimism#declinism). I haven't seen a major formal defense of CCCH (see [previous comments on how people discuss innovation stagnation](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/#the-golden-age-hypothesis)), but I've heard it come up in many casual conversations. Over the last several weeks, I've been examining different topics relevant to the CCCH. Here I'm going to summarize my take on the CCCH as a whole. At a high level, I basically see it as cherry-picking. It would be one thing if we saw things getting worse everywhere we looked - declining quality of life, declining wealth, declining technological capabilities, declining athletic abilities. But in fact, [the world has been getting better in a large number of ways](https://www.cold-takes.com/has-life-gotten-better-the-post-industrial-era/). With this in mind, I think it's worth looking at the *specific* claims made in the CCCH, one by one, and remaining open to the idea that there are lots of different things going on here - that we won't see the same theory explaining everything. Once we take that attitude, what I think we see is: **Innovation stagnation and cost disease really seem like different phenomena.** * Innovation stagnation is about the output of the tiny upper tail of innovators in society. Cost disease is about trends in the average cost to provide goods and services, across the board. * They *could* be explained by the same underlying story - for example, perhaps everyone is just getting worse at everything - but I don't find that sort of story very likely, especially when we have [good reason to think that innovation stagnation is about ideas getting harder to find rather than about worsening culture or intelligence](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/#interpretation). **Cost disease is itself multiple, arguably somewhat cherry-picked phenomena.** It's not the case that *everything* is getting more expensive[1](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/b6fb3f22-a581-44f8-9119-6820cd82b704/#fn1) - in fact, in some sense the *average* thing is getting more affordable. E.g., as shown [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N), real median household income is rising or at worst flat, which means that median income is rising faster than average prices; a similar chart for mean income, or a global version, would be more encouraging still. If food and energy were getting more expensive while education and health care were getting cheaper, I imagine the complaints about "cost disease" would be roughly the same. So we should think of cost disease as "A list of several things that are getting more expensive" rather than as "A phenomenon in which everything gets more expensive." And we should look at each of these several things individually. **I'd guess that a decent amount of cost disease is explained by the "stakeholder management"-related challenges I laid out [previously](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/).** * Slate Star Codex's excellent [compilation of comments on cost disease](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/17/highlights-from-the-comments-on-cost-disease/) includes several pretty compelling (to me) anecdotes about some of the possible causes that seem to largely reflect [stakeholder management challenges](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/). See the comments from John Schilling, bkearns123, fc123, and CatCube. * Detailed examinations of what's going on with construction costs (for subway stations and other infrastructure) seem to imply a major role for stakeholder management;[2](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/b6fb3f22-a581-44f8-9119-6820cd82b704/#fn2) I'd guess that similar dynamics affect education and health care. * The facially most obvious explanation for rising real estate costs would seem to be [NIMBYism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIMBY), which I [previously](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/) discussed as an instance of "stakeholder management" challenges. (Another salient explanation would be along the lines of: "As wealth rises and land doesn't get more plentiful, land should get more expensive.") **I'd guess another significant fraction is explained by things I don't consider to be "civilizational decline" at all.** * [Baumol's cost disease](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/17/followup-on-the-baumol-effect-thanks-o-baumol/) may be an important part of the "cost disease" picture, and wouldn't indicate civilizational decline. Baumol's cost disease is difficult to explain compactly, but the basic idea is something like: "Due to productivity going *up*, many jobs get more lucrative; and so schools and medical systems and such need to pay more in order to stay competitive in hiring, even if schools and medical systems aren't getting more productive themselves." \+ I've also wondered whether the basic dynamic of Baumol's cost disease applies to things other than employees. For example, you could maybe imagine that a similar dynamic applies to conveniently located real estate. That is: real estate is a key input into many things, and it has not been getting cheaper as fast as other things have been getting cheaper; so when a high percentage of the costs of X comes from real estate, X will get more expensive.* I'm pretty compelled by some of the "cost disease" [explanations](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/17/highlights-from-the-comments-on-cost-disease/) that emphasize the combination of: \+ (a) Rising demand and willingness-to-pay for good education and health care. \+ (b) Difficulty *assessing the quality* of education and health care. When you can't tell what you're getting for your money, but are willing to spend a lot for "the best," this could be a formula for costs spiraling upwards and paying for a lot of illusory indicators of value. \+ (c) "Disintermediation," in which people are not entirely making their own purchasing decisions - health care is paid for by insurance, public education by government, higher education by scholarships and donations as well as direct payments. This makes it harder for there to be a subset of the market that has lower willingness to spend, providing demand for cheaper services. \+ You could certainly call the combination of (a)-(c) *dysfunctional*, but it's not clear that there is anything here that is *unique to today's world* or *getting worse as time goes on.* If (a) is rising while (b) and (c) are steady, that's sufficient for costs to rise over time. **Bottom line.** When I look separately at the various pieces of the CCCH, I ultimately don't see a good case that our society is getting less competent across the board, or "forgetting how to do basic things," or anything like that. I think our society is getting bigger, wealthier, and more capable, and it's sometimes "getting in its own way" in ways that we might [naturally expect](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/). [![Twitter](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-twitter-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fcost-disease-and-civilizational-decline%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Cost%20disease%20and%20civilizational%20decline&ct;=1) [![Facebook](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-facebook-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fcost-disease-and-civilizational-decline%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Cost%20disease%20and%20civilizational%20decline&ct;=1) [![Reddit](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-reddit-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/reddit/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fcost-disease-and-civilizational-decline%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Cost%20disease%20and%20civilizational%20decline&ct;=1) [![More](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-addthis-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/menu/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fcost-disease-and-civilizational-decline%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Cost%20disease%20and%20civilizational%20decline&ct;=1) [Comment/discuss](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/87AugxNfxAgAqR3mv/comments-for-shorter-cold-takes-pieces?commentId=nwD8vYEdkw7DRFgJ3) \--- Footnotes \--------- 1\. [Relevant chart](https://www.vox.com/new-money/2016/10/10/<PHONE>/27-charts-changing-economy): ![alt_text](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2022/01/image1.png "image_tooltip") [↩](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/b6fb3f22-a581-44f8-9119-6820cd82b704/#fnref1) 2\. * From a [Brookings report](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/WP54_Brooks-Liscow_updated.pdf) on this topic: ""We do find empirical evidence consistent with two hypotheses. The first is that the demand for more expensive Interstate highways increases with income, as either richer people are willing to pay for more expensive highways or in any case they can have their interests heard in the political process ... The second hypothesis ... is the rise of 'citizen voice' in the late 1960s and early 1970s. We use the term 'citizen voice' to describe the set of movements that arose in the late 1960s—such as the environmental movement and the rise of homeowners as organized lobbyists (Fischel 2001)—that empowered citizens with institutional tools to translate preferences into government outcomes (Altshuler and Luberoff 2003) ... Other new tools, such as mandated public input, could yield construction of additional highway accoutrement (such as noise barriers), create delays, or increase planning costs ... we find that income's relationship to costs is five times stronger in the post-1970 era. This is consistent with the timing of the rise of citizen voice, which took flight in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Second, we find that the discussion in the Congressional Record around the Interstates was substantially more likely to involve environmental issues after 1970 and that these issues remained in heightened discussion after the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act in 1969." * Alon Levy's analysis of subway costs ([1](https://pedestrianobservations.com/2019/03/03/why-american-costs-are-so-high-work-in-progress/), [2](https://pedestrianobservations.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/costspresentation2.pdf)) has named station construction as a major culprit in countries with unusually high costs - in particular, the choice to tunnel underground to avoid street disruption, rather than using cheaper and quicker "cut-and-cover" methods that cause major street disruption. My guess is that there was less concern over street disruption in the past, partly because there was less "citizen voice" to oppose it. [↩](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/b6fb3f22-a581-44f8-9119-6820cd82b704/#fnref2) Powered by [Ghost](https://ghost.org/) #### Popular tags [sports](/tag/sports/) [innovationstagnation](/tag/innovationstagnation/) [2star](/tag/2star/) [utopia](/tag/utopia/) Subscribe to Cold Takes ======================= For audio version, search for "Cold Takes Audio" in your podcast app Subscribe **Great!** Check your inbox and click the link to confirm your subscription. **If you don't see it, check your spam!** Please enter a valid email address! $("#lower-right-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1458'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-1").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-2").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#cover-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1472'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#footer-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1473'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#final-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1474'); }); //When someone clicks an anchor link, I want the sticky nav to go away. $("a").click(function(f) { body.removeClass('sticky-visible'); lastSt = 9999999999999}); function ctlight() { html.removeClass('theme-dark').addClass('theme-light'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\_theme', 'light'); //$(".gh-portal-triggerbtn-container").css("background","#0000dd"); /\* document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#0000dd'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#ffffff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#1a1a1a'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#1a1a1a');\*/ // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(0px,0)"); // $(".single-content").css("font-weight","400"); existingTheme = "light"; } function ctdark() { html.removeClass('theme-light').addClass('theme-dark'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\_theme', 'dark'); /\*document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#5ceaff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#18141f'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#fff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#fff');\*/ //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#14101b'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#121212'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#282c35'); //$(".single-content").css("font-weight","300"); // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(19px,0)"); existingTheme = "dark"; } //For light/dark toggle $(".CT-toggle").click(function(g) { g.preventDefault(); if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctlight(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctdark(); } } ); // Parse the URL parameter, then log goal if it is a completed subscription. 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Cost disease and civilizational decline var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Cost disease and civilizational decline", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/cost-disease-and-civilizational-decline/", "datePublished": "2022-01-27T18:47:30.000Z", "dateModified": "2022-01-27T18:55:47.000Z", "description": "Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.\nNote that this recording combines a previous post\n[https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/] with this\none.\n\n"Cost disease" is a term sometimes used to refer to the rising costs (over the\npast several decades) of particular goods and services - particularly education\n(both K-12 and higher education), health care, real estate, and infrastructure\n(e.g., subway stations) - without commensurate", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://www.cold-takes.com/" } } .gh-post-upgrade-cta-content, .gh-post-upgrade-cta { display: flex; 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function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\\_site\\_ids = clicky\\_site\\_ids || []; clicky\\_site\\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Cost disease and civilizational decline By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Jan 27, 2022 6 min read Cost disease and civilizational decline ======================================= *Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc. Note that this recording combines a [previous post](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/) with this one.* "Cost disease" is a term sometimes used to refer to the **rising costs (over the past several decades) of particular goods and services - particularly education (both K-12 and higher education), health care, real estate, and infrastructure (e.g., subway stations) - without commensurately rising benefits.** It's been discussed at length on Slate Star Codex, [here](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost-disease/) and [here](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/17/highlights-from-the-comments-on-cost-disease/). I've often heard people citing "cost disease" as an indicator of general "civilizational decline." I've even seen it lumped in with the ["Where's Today's Beethoven?" question](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/), along these rough lines: > **Collapsing civilizational competence hypothesis (CCCH):**we have so much wealth and technology, we have such a huge population, and yet - we collectively can't match the [music or literature](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/) of the past, or its [scientific innovation](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/), or its ability to provide an [affordable education and health care](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost-disease/), or even its subway station construction. Something is badly broken in our culture. The CCCH is an intriguing claim - especially so, I think, because we are naturally [biased toward imagining the past as a golden age](https://ourworldindata.org/optimism-pessimism#declinism). I haven't seen a major formal defense of CCCH (see [previous comments on how people discuss innovation stagnation](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/#the-golden-age-hypothesis)), but I've heard it come up in many casual conversations. Over the last several weeks, I've been examining different topics relevant to the CCCH. Here I'm going to summarize my take on the CCCH as a whole. At a high level, I basically see it as cherry-picking. It would be one thing if we saw things getting worse everywhere we looked - declining quality of life, declining wealth, declining technological capabilities, declining athletic abilities. But in fact, [the world has been getting better in a large number of ways](https://www.cold-takes.com/has-life-gotten-better-the-post-industrial-era/). With this in mind, I think it's worth looking at the *specific* claims made in the CCCH, one by one, and remaining open to the idea that there are lots of different things going on here - that we won't see the same theory explaining everything. Once we take that attitude, what I think we see is: **Innovation stagnation and cost disease really seem like different phenomena.** * Innovation stagnation is about the output of the tiny upper tail of innovators in society. Cost disease is about trends in the average cost to provide goods and services, across the board. * They *could* be explained by the same underlying story - for example, perhaps everyone is just getting worse at everything - but I don't find that sort of story very likely, especially when we have [good reason to think that innovation stagnation is about ideas getting harder to find rather than about worsening culture or intelligence](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/#interpretation). **Cost disease is itself multiple, arguably somewhat cherry-picked phenomena.** It's not the case that *everything* is getting more expensive[1](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/b6fb3f22-a581-44f8-9119-6820cd82b704/#fn1) - in fact, in some sense the *average* thing is getting more affordable. E.g., as shown [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N), real median household income is rising or at worst flat, which means that median income is rising faster than average prices; a similar chart for mean income, or a global version, would be more encouraging still. If food and energy were getting more expensive while education and health care were getting cheaper, I imagine the complaints about "cost disease" would be roughly the same. So we should think of cost disease as "A list of several things that are getting more expensive" rather than as "A phenomenon in which everything gets more expensive." And we should look at each of these several things individually. **I'd guess that a decent amount of cost disease is explained by the "stakeholder management"-related challenges I laid out [previously](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/).** * Slate Star Codex's excellent [compilation of comments on cost disease](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/17/highlights-from-the-comments-on-cost-disease/) includes several pretty compelling (to me) anecdotes about some of the possible causes that seem to largely reflect [stakeholder management challenges](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/). See the comments from John Schilling, bkearns123, fc123, and CatCube. * Detailed examinations of what's going on with construction costs (for subway stations and other infrastructure) seem to imply a major role for stakeholder management;[2](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/b6fb3f22-a581-44f8-9119-6820cd82b704/#fn2) I'd guess that similar dynamics affect education and health care. * The facially most obvious explanation for rising real estate costs would seem to be [NIMBYism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIMBY), which I [previously](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/) discussed as an instance of "stakeholder management" challenges. (Another salient explanation would be along the lines of: "As wealth rises and land doesn't get more plentiful, land should get more expensive.") **I'd guess another significant fraction is explained by things I don't consider to be "civilizational decline" at all.** * [Baumol's cost disease](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/17/followup-on-the-baumol-effect-thanks-o-baumol/) may be an important part of the "cost disease" picture, and wouldn't indicate civilizational decline. Baumol's cost disease is difficult to explain compactly, but the basic idea is something like: "Due to productivity going *up*, many jobs get more lucrative; and so schools and medical systems and such need to pay more in order to stay competitive in hiring, even if schools and medical systems aren't getting more productive themselves." \+ I've also wondered whether the basic dynamic of Baumol's cost disease applies to things other than employees. For example, you could maybe imagine that a similar dynamic applies to conveniently located real estate. That is: real estate is a key input into many things, and it has not been getting cheaper as fast as other things have been getting cheaper; so when a high percentage of the costs of X comes from real estate, X will get more expensive.* I'm pretty compelled by some of the "cost disease" [explanations](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/17/highlights-from-the-comments-on-cost-disease/) that emphasize the combination of: \+ (a) Rising demand and willingness-to-pay for good education and health care. \+ (b) Difficulty *assessing the quality* of education and health care. When you can't tell what you're getting for your money, but are willing to spend a lot for "the best," this could be a formula for costs spiraling upwards and paying for a lot of illusory indicators of value. \+ (c) "Disintermediation," in which people are not entirely making their own purchasing decisions - health care is paid for by insurance, public education by government, higher education by scholarships and donations as well as direct payments. This makes it harder for there to be a subset of the market that has lower willingness to spend, providing demand for cheaper services. \+ You could certainly call the combination of (a)-(c) *dysfunctional*, but it's not clear that there is anything here that is *unique to today's world* or *getting worse as time goes on.* If (a) is rising while (b) and (c) are steady, that's sufficient for costs to rise over time. **Bottom line.** When I look separately at the various pieces of the CCCH, I ultimately don't see a good case that our society is getting less competent across the board, or "forgetting how to do basic things," or anything like that. I think our society is getting bigger, wealthier, and more capable, and it's sometimes "getting in its own way" in ways that we might [naturally expect](https://www.cold-takes.com/empowerment-and-stakeholder-management/). [![Twitter](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-twitter-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fcost-disease-and-civilizational-decline%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Cost%20disease%20and%20civilizational%20decline&ct;=1) [![Facebook](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-facebook-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fcost-disease-and-civilizational-decline%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Cost%20disease%20and%20civilizational%20decline&ct;=1) [![Reddit](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-reddit-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/reddit/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fcost-disease-and-civilizational-decline%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Cost%20disease%20and%20civilizational%20decline&ct;=1) [![More](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-addthis-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/menu/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fcost-disease-and-civilizational-decline%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Cost%20disease%20and%20civilizational%20decline&ct;=1) [Comment/discuss](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/87AugxNfxAgAqR3mv/comments-for-shorter-cold-takes-pieces?commentId=nwD8vYEdkw7DRFgJ3) \--- Footnotes \--------- 1\. [Relevant chart](https://www.vox.com/new-money/2016/10/10/12933426/27-charts-changing-economy): ![alt_text](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2022/01/image1.png "image_tooltip") [↩](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/b6fb3f22-a581-44f8-9119-6820cd82b704/#fnref1) 2\. * From a [Brookings report](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/WP54_Brooks-Liscow_updated.pdf) on this topic: ""We do find empirical evidence consistent with two hypotheses. The first is that the demand for more expensive Interstate highways increases with income, as either richer people are willing to pay for more expensive highways or in any case they can have their interests heard in the political process ... The second hypothesis ... is the rise of 'citizen voice' in the late 1960s and early 1970s. We use the term 'citizen voice' to describe the set of movements that arose in the late 1960s—such as the environmental movement and the rise of homeowners as organized lobbyists (Fischel 2001)—that empowered citizens with institutional tools to translate preferences into government outcomes (Altshuler and Luberoff 2003) ... Other new tools, such as mandated public input, could yield construction of additional highway accoutrement (such as noise barriers), create delays, or increase planning costs ... we find that income’s relationship to costs is five times stronger in the post-1970 era. This is consistent with the timing of the rise of citizen voice, which took flight in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Second, we find that the discussion in the Congressional Record around the Interstates was substantially more likely to involve environmental issues after 1970 and that these issues remained in heightened discussion after the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act in 1969." * Alon Levy's analysis of subway costs ([1](https://pedestrianobservations.com/2019/03/03/why-american-costs-are-so-high-work-in-progress/), [2](https://pedestrianobservations.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/costspresentation2.pdf)) has named station construction as a major culprit in countries with unusually high costs - in particular, the choice to tunnel underground to avoid street disruption, rather than using cheaper and quicker "cut-and-cover" methods that cause major street disruption. My guess is that there was less concern over street disruption in the past, partly because there was less "citizen voice" to oppose it. 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