"Technological unemployment" AI vs. "most important century" AI: how far apart? var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": ""Technological unemployment" AI vs. "most important century" AI: how far apart?", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/technological-unemployment-ai-vs-most-important-century-ai-how-far-apart/", "datePublished": "2021-10-07T19:15:06.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-10-07T19:15:06.000Z", "description": "In casual conversations about the future of AI - particularly among people who
don't go in for wild
[https://www.cold-takes.com/all-possible-views-about-humanitys-future-are-wild/]
, sci-fi stuff - there seems to be a lot of attention given to the problem of
technological unemployment: AI systems outcompeting humans at enough jobs to
create a drastic, sustained rise in the unemployment rate.

This tends to be seen as a "near-term" problem, whereas the world-transforming
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By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Oct 7, 2021 4 min read "Technological unemployment" AI vs. "most important century" AI: how far apart? =============================================================================== In casual conversations about the future of AI - particularly among people who don't go in for [wild](https://www.cold-takes.com/all-possible-views-about-humanitys-future-are-wild/), sci-fi stuff - there seems to be a lot of attention given to the problem of **technological unemployment**: AI systems outcompeting humans at enough jobs to create a drastic, sustained rise in the unemployment rate. This tends to be seen as a "near-term" problem, whereas the [world-transforming impacts of AI I've laid out](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) tend to be seen as more "long-term." This *could* be right. But here I'll try to convey an intuition that it's overstated: that the kind of AI that could [power a massive productivity explosion and threaten humanity's very existence](https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-timelines-part-1-of-4-what-kind-of-ai/#impacts-of-pasta) could come pretty soon after - or even before! - the kind of AI that could lead to significant, long-lasting technological unemployment. "Technological unemployment" AI would need to be extraordinarily powerful and versatile \--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The first key point is that I think people **underestimate how powerful and versatile AI would have to be to create significant, long-lasting technological unemployment.** For example, imagine that AI advances to the point where truck drivers are no longer needed. Would this add over [3 million Americans](https://www.alltrucking.com/faq/truck-drivers-in-the-usa/#:~:text=There%20are%20approximately%203.6%20million,American%20Trucking%20Associations%20(ATA).) to the ranks of the unemployed? Of course not - they'd get other jobs. We've had centuries of progress in automation, yet today's unemployment rate [is similar to where it was 50 years ago](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), around 5-6%. (Temporary unemployment/displacement is a potential issue as well. But I don't think it is usually what people are picturing when they talk about technological unemployment, and I don't see a case that there's anything in that category that would be importantly different from the daily job destruction and creation that has been part of the economy for a long time.) In order to leave these 3 million people *durably* unemployed, AI systems would have to outperform them at essentially **every economically valuable task.** When imagining a world of increasing automation, it's not hard to picture a lot of job options for relatively low-skilled workers that seem very hard to automate away. Examples might include: * Caregiver roles, where it's important for people to feel that they're connecting with other humans (so it's hard for AI to fully fill in). * Roles doing intricate physical tasks that are well-suited to human hands, and/or unusually challenging for robots. (My general sense is that AI software is improving more rapidly than robot hardware.) * Providing training data for AIs, focused on cases where they struggle. * Surveying and interviewing neighbors and community members, in order to collect data that would otherwise be hard to get. * Perhaps a return to [agricultural employment](https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture#employment-in-agriculture-1300-to-today), if rising wealth leads to increasing demand for food from small, humane and/or picturesque farms (and if it turns out that AI-driven robots have trouble with all the tasks these farms require - or it turns out that AI-run farms are just hard to market). * Many more possibilities that I'm not immediately thinking of. And these roles could end up paying quite well, if automation elsewhere in the economy greatly raises productivity (leading to more total wealth chasing the people in these roles). In my view, **a world where automation has made low-skill workers *fully unemployable* is a world with *extremely powerful, well-developed, versatile AI systems and robots*** - capable of doing *everything* that, say, 10% of humans can do. This could require AI with human-level capabilities at language, logic, fine motor control, interpersonal interaction, and more. Powerful, versatile AI could quickly become transformative ("most important century") AI \---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And then the question is, how far is that from a world with AI systems that can make *higher-skilled* workers fully unemployable? For example, AI systems that could do absolutely everything that today's successful scientists and engineers can do? Because that sounds to me like [PASTA](https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-timelines-part-1-of-4-what-kind-of-ai/) (my term for a type of AI that I've argued could make this century the [most important of all time for humanity](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/)), and at that point I think we have [bigger things to worry about](https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-timelines-part-1-of-4-what-kind-of-ai/#impacts-of-pasta). In fact, I think there's a solid chance that PASTA will come *before* the kind of AI that can make lower-skilled workers unemployable. This is because PASTA might not have to match humans at certain kinds of motor control and social interaction. So it might not make anyone totally unemployable (in the sense of having zero skills with economic value), even as it leads to a productivity explosion, wild technologies like [digital people](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world/), and maybe even human extinction. **The idea that we might see AIs *fully outcompete* low-skill humans in the next few decades, but not fully outcompete higher-skill humans until decades after that, seems intuitively a bit weird to me.** It could certainly end up being right, but I worry that it is fundamentally coming from a place of anthropomorphizing AI and assuming it will find the same things easy and challenging that we do. **Bottom line:** I think it's too quick to think of technological unemployment as the next problem we'll be dealing with, and wilder issues as being much further down the line. By the time (or even before) we have AI that can truly replace every facet of what low-skill humans do, the "wild sci-fi" AI impacts could be the bigger concern. 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“Technological unemployment” AI vs. “most important century” AI: how far apart? var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "“Technological unemployment” AI vs. “most important century” AI: how far apart?", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/technological-unemployment-ai-vs-most-important-century-ai-how-far-apart/", "datePublished": "2021-10-07T19:15:06.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-10-07T19:15:06.000Z", "description": "In casual conversations about the future of AI - particularly among people who\ndon’t go in for wild\n[https://www.cold-takes.com/all-possible-views-about-humanitys-future-are-wild/]\n, sci-fi stuff - there seems to be a lot of attention given to the problem of \ntechnological unemployment: AI systems outcompeting humans at enough jobs to\ncreate a drastic, sustained rise in the unemployment rate.\n\nThis tends to be seen as a “near-term” problem, whereas the world-transforming\nimpacts of AI I’ve laid ", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://www.cold-takes.com/" } } .gh-post-upgrade-cta-content, .gh-post-upgrade-cta { display: flex; 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function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\\_site\\_ids = clicky\\_site\\_ids || []; clicky\\_site\\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - “Technological unemployment” AI vs. “most important century” AI: how far apart? By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Oct 7, 2021 4 min read “Technological unemployment” AI vs. “most important century” AI: how far apart? =============================================================================== In casual conversations about the future of AI - particularly among people who don’t go in for [wild](https://www.cold-takes.com/all-possible-views-about-humanitys-future-are-wild/), sci-fi stuff - there seems to be a lot of attention given to the problem of **technological unemployment**: AI systems outcompeting humans at enough jobs to create a drastic, sustained rise in the unemployment rate. This tends to be seen as a “near-term” problem, whereas the [world-transforming impacts of AI I’ve laid out](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) tend to be seen as more “long-term.” This *could* be right. But here I’ll try to convey an intuition that it’s overstated: that the kind of AI that could [power a massive productivity explosion and threaten humanity’s very existence](https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-timelines-part-1-of-4-what-kind-of-ai/#impacts-of-pasta) could come pretty soon after - or even before! - the kind of AI that could lead to significant, long-lasting technological unemployment. “Technological unemployment” AI would need to be extraordinarily powerful and versatile \--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The first key point is that I think people **underestimate how powerful and versatile AI would have to be to create significant, long-lasting technological unemployment.** For example, imagine that AI advances to the point where truck drivers are no longer needed. Would this add over [3 million Americans](https://www.alltrucking.com/faq/truck-drivers-in-the-usa/#:~:text=There%20are%20approximately%203.6%20million,American%20Trucking%20Associations%20(ATA).) to the ranks of the unemployed? Of course not - they’d get other jobs. We’ve had centuries of progress in automation, yet today’s unemployment rate [is similar to where it was 50 years ago](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), around 5-6%. (Temporary unemployment/displacement is a potential issue as well. But I don't think it is usually what people are picturing when they talk about technological unemployment, and I don't see a case that there's anything in that category that would be importantly different from the daily job destruction and creation that has been part of the economy for a long time.) In order to leave these 3 million people *durably* unemployed, AI systems would have to outperform them at essentially **every economically valuable task.** When imagining a world of increasing automation, it’s not hard to picture a lot of job options for relatively low-skilled workers that seem very hard to automate away. Examples might include: * Caregiver roles, where it’s important for people to feel that they’re connecting with other humans (so it’s hard for AI to fully fill in). * Roles doing intricate physical tasks that are well-suited to human hands, and/or unusually challenging for robots. (My general sense is that AI software is improving more rapidly than robot hardware.) * Providing training data for AIs, focused on cases where they struggle. * Surveying and interviewing neighbors and community members, in order to collect data that would otherwise be hard to get. * Perhaps a return to [agricultural employment](https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture#employment-in-agriculture-1300-to-today), if rising wealth leads to increasing demand for food from small, humane and/or picturesque farms (and if it turns out that AI-driven robots have trouble with all the tasks these farms require - or it turns out that AI-run farms are just hard to market). * Many more possibilities that I’m not immediately thinking of. And these roles could end up paying quite well, if automation elsewhere in the economy greatly raises productivity (leading to more total wealth chasing the people in these roles). In my view, **a world where automation has made low-skill workers *fully unemployable* is a world with *extremely powerful, well-developed, versatile AI systems and robots*** - capable of doing *everything* that, say, 10% of humans can do. This could require AI with human-level capabilities at language, logic, fine motor control, interpersonal interaction, and more. Powerful, versatile AI could quickly become transformative ("most important century") AI \---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And then the question is, how far is that from a world with AI systems that can make *higher-skilled* workers fully unemployable? For example, AI systems that could do absolutely everything that today’s successful scientists and engineers can do? Because that sounds to me like [PASTA](https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-timelines-part-1-of-4-what-kind-of-ai/) (my term for a type of AI that I've argued could make this century the [most important of all time for humanity](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/)), and at that point I think we have [bigger things to worry about](https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-timelines-part-1-of-4-what-kind-of-ai/#impacts-of-pasta). In fact, I think there’s a solid chance that PASTA will come *before* the kind of AI that can make lower-skilled workers unemployable. This is because PASTA might not have to match humans at certain kinds of motor control and social interaction. So it might not make anyone totally unemployable (in the sense of having zero skills with economic value), even as it leads to a productivity explosion, wild technologies like [digital people](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world/), and maybe even human extinction. **The idea that we might see AIs *fully outcompete* low-skill humans in the next few decades, but not fully outcompete higher-skill humans until decades after that, seems intuitively a bit weird to me.** It could certainly end up being right, but I worry that it is fundamentally coming from a place of anthropomorphizing AI and assuming it will find the same things easy and challenging that we do. **Bottom line:** I think it’s too quick to think of technological unemployment as the next problem we’ll be dealing with, and wilder issues as being much further down the line. By the time (or even before) we have AI that can truly replace every facet of what low-skill humans do, the “wild sci-fi” AI impacts could be the bigger concern. 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Gell-Mann Earworms var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Gell-Mann Earworms", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/gell-mann-earworms/", "datePublished": "2021-10-01T18:04:27.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-10-19T17:30:09.000Z", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/10/earworms-twitter.png", "width": 1126, "height": 563 }, "description": "Consider Gell-Mann Amnesia
[https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-gell-mann-amnesia-effect-is-as-follows-you]
:

> Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the
newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case,
physics. In mine [Michael Crichton's], show business. You read the article and
see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the
issues. 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} } //Implement light/dark theme if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctdark(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctlight(); } window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\_site\_ids = clicky\_site\_ids || []; clicky\_site\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Gell-Mann Earworms By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Oct 1, 2021 5 min read Gell-Mann Earworms ================== Consider [Gell-Mann Amnesia](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-gell-mann-amnesia-effect-is-as-follows-you): > Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine [Michael Crichton's], show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them. > > > In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know. > > I think "baloney" goes a bit far. But I think it's genuinely true that most of what you read is some combination of: * **Underinformed**, because professional writers are rarely experts; because real experts often can't write all that well; and because it's hard even for experts to know everything relevant for the topic at hand (especially when the topic doesn't fit well within a particular field). * **Biased**, if only because they're written by human beings. * **Systematically misleading**, partly because most of what you read is ultimately on something much closer to an "entertainment" business model (the author wants you to enjoy your experience) than an "accuracy" business model (the writer wants you to get accurate information). There are *some* norms and forces that reward accuracy and punish inaccuracy in writing, and they often catch blatant falsehoods, but I wouldn't generally say there's strong pressure on writers to give their readers an accurate overall understanding of reality. I think most people agree with what I just wrote as they read it, but they don't *feel* it day to day: they have Gell-Mann Amnesia. Consider the opposite condition: **Gell-Mann Earworms, in which "I can't trust this" is constantly ringing in your ears as you read *anything.*** (Very much including this blog!) If there were a browser extension that inserted "Based on a true story" at the beginning of every online piece, this might give a feel for having Gell-Mann Earworms. This probably sounds unpleasant and scary, and that's probably part of the reason people have Gell-Mann Amnesia. What do you DO in this case? How do you inform yourself if you really don't trust anything? As someone who tries to have Gell-Mann Earworms, I try to: * **Learn about fewer things, more deeply.** I decide which topics I'd really like to understand, and get really into them. That means reading multiple arguments, comparing them against each other, and trying to identify the sources of disagreement. It means reading academic papers instead of just news articles (and even books). * **Think a lot about which writers and sources I trust most.** This sometimes means spending inordinate time digging into one claim or one debate. * **Separate learning about how things are, learning about how things are discussed, and entertainment.** If I read a single news article on a topic, I may have just learned about *how things are discussed*, and I may have just gotten some entertainment. But I probably didn't learn much about *how things are*. That would take a deeper dive. \+ Personally, I like knowing how things are discussed, so I do follow a Twitter feed and read news websites and such, but I don't tend to think of this as "staying informed" (about anything other than how things are discussed).* **Reserve judgment.** For example, I really try not to form a negative opinion of anyone based on something I read about them, whether that's a takedown of their argument, or a story about a scandal, or anything else. \+ If I really want to decide whether someone said something wrong/bad, I want to take the time to read their original words in context, as well as any later explanation they may have given, before I even start to judge them. \+ If I read a takedown of someone's essay, I assume the author of the takedown probably misinterpreted them,[1](#fn1) and if I want to know for sure, I need to read the original in something close to its entirety. \+ I generally don't consider myself justified in being offended by someone's words or actions if I haven't done at least an hour of research on the specific accusation in question. Unless there's some specific reason that it's worth it for me to spend that time, this means I usually don't get mad at people by reading things. I haven't identified any problems caused by this choice.* **Think about what's really worth understanding,** given how much work it takes to understand something. What claims would be important - for *my* actions - if true? Many big stories just don't qualify. To live with Gell-Mann Earworms, I have to consider myself **deeply ignorant about the vast majority of issues people around me are talking about.** When my parents ask my opinion on the latest news story, I always try to make "I don't know" my first response. (I'll then give some opinions, for fun and because we need something to argue about or else they'll start giving me life advice. But starting with "I don't know" seems like the right habit.) I generally think to myself, **"I only know about the topics I can put some real time into understanding, and that's not a lot of topics, and I'd better pick them carefully for my life goals."** I think this is a different mindset than most people have. I think it's worth trying out. [![Twitter](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-twitter-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fgell-mann-earworms%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Gell-Mann%20Earworms&ct;=1) [![Facebook](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-facebook-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fgell-mann-earworms%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Gell-Mann%20Earworms&ct;=1) [![Reddit](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-reddit-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/reddit/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fgell-mann-earworms%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Gell-Mann%20Earworms&ct;=1) [![More](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-addthis-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/menu/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fgell-mann-earworms%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Gell-Mann%20Earworms&ct;=1) [Subscribe](https://www.cold-takes.com/gell-mann-earworms/#subscribe) [Feedback](https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/4kal2ue/run?posttitle=Gell-Mann%20Earworms) \--- **Footnotes** 1\. Based on times when I have dug into debates and takedowns, I think the odds that someone is being misread are very high. I may give some examples in the future. [↩](#fnref1) For email filter: florpschmop Powered by [Ghost](https://ghost.org/) #### Popular tags [sports](/tag/sports/) [innovationstagnation](/tag/innovationstagnation/) [2star](/tag/2star/) [utopia](/tag/utopia/) Subscribe to Cold Takes ======================= For audio version, search for "Cold Takes Audio" in your podcast app Subscribe **Great!** Check your inbox and click the link to confirm your subscription. **If you don't see it, check your spam!** Please enter a valid email address! $("#lower-right-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1458'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-1").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-2").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#cover-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1472'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#footer-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1473'); /\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#final-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1474'); }); //When someone clicks an anchor link, I want the sticky nav to go away. $("a").click(function(f) { body.removeClass('sticky-visible'); lastSt = 9999999999999}); function ctlight() { html.removeClass('theme-dark').addClass('theme-light'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\_theme', 'light'); //$(".gh-portal-triggerbtn-container").css("background","#0000dd"); /\* document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#0000dd'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#ffffff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#1a1a1a'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#1a1a1a');\*/ // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(0px,0)"); // $(".single-content").css("font-weight","400"); existingTheme = "light"; } function ctdark() { html.removeClass('theme-light').addClass('theme-dark'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\_theme', 'dark'); /\*document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#5ceaff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#18141f'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#fff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#fff');\*/ //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#14101b'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#121212'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#282c35'); //$(".single-content").css("font-weight","300"); // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(19px,0)"); existingTheme = "dark"; } //For light/dark toggle $(".CT-toggle").click(function(g) { g.preventDefault(); if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctlight(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctdark(); } } ); // Parse the URL parameter, then log goal if it is a completed subscription. 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Gell-Mann Earworms var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Gell-Mann Earworms", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/gell-mann-earworms/", "datePublished": "2021-10-01T18:04:27.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-10-19T17:30:09.000Z", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/10/earworms-twitter.png", "width": 1126, "height": 563 }, "description": "Consider Gell-Mann Amnesia\n[https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-gell-mann-amnesia-effect-is-as-follows-you]\n:\n\n> Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the\nnewspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case,\nphysics. In mine [Michael Crichton’s], show business. You read the article and\nsee the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the\nissues. 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} } //Implement light/dark theme if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctdark(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctlight(); } window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\\_site\\_ids = clicky\\_site\\_ids || []; clicky\\_site\\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Gell-Mann Earworms By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Oct 1, 2021 5 min read Gell-Mann Earworms ================== Consider [Gell-Mann Amnesia](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-gell-mann-amnesia-effect-is-as-follows-you): > Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine [Michael Crichton’s], show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them. > > > In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know. > > I think “baloney” goes a bit far. But I think it’s genuinely true that most of what you read is some combination of: * **Underinformed**, because professional writers are rarely experts; because real experts often can’t write all that well; and because it's hard even for experts to know everything relevant for the topic at hand (especially when the topic doesn't fit well within a particular field). * **Biased**, if only because they’re written by human beings. * **Systematically misleading**, partly because most of what you read is ultimately on something much closer to an “entertainment” business model (the author wants you to enjoy your experience) than an “accuracy” business model (the writer wants you to get accurate information). There are *some* norms and forces that reward accuracy and punish inaccuracy in writing, and they often catch blatant falsehoods, but I wouldn’t generally say there’s strong pressure on writers to give their readers an accurate overall understanding of reality. I think most people agree with what I just wrote as they read it, but they don’t *feel* it day to day: they have Gell-Mann Amnesia. Consider the opposite condition: **Gell-Mann Earworms, in which “I can’t trust this” is constantly ringing in your ears as you read *anything.*** (Very much including this blog!) If there were a browser extension that inserted “Based on a true story” at the beginning of every online piece, this might give a feel for having Gell-Mann Earworms. This probably sounds unpleasant and scary, and that’s probably part of the reason people have Gell-Mann Amnesia. What do you DO in this case? How do you inform yourself if you really don’t trust anything? As someone who tries to have Gell-Mann Earworms, I try to: * **Learn about fewer things, more deeply.** I decide which topics I’d really like to understand, and get really into them. That means reading multiple arguments, comparing them against each other, and trying to identify the sources of disagreement. It means reading academic papers instead of just news articles (and even books). * **Think a lot about which writers and sources I trust most.** This sometimes means spending inordinate time digging into one claim or one debate. * **Separate learning about how things are, learning about how things are discussed, and entertainment.** If I read a single news article on a topic, I may have just learned about *how things are discussed*, and I may have just gotten some entertainment. But I probably didn’t learn much about *how things are*. That would take a deeper dive. \+ Personally, I like knowing how things are discussed, so I do follow a Twitter feed and read news websites and such, but I don’t tend to think of this as “staying informed” (about anything other than how things are discussed).* **Reserve judgment.** For example, I really try not to form a negative opinion of anyone based on something I read about them, whether that’s a takedown of their argument, or a story about a scandal, or anything else. \+ If I really want to decide whether someone said something wrong/bad, I want to take the time to read their original words in context, as well as any later explanation they may have given, before I even start to judge them. \+ If I read a takedown of someone’s essay, I assume the author of the takedown probably misinterpreted them,[1](#fn1) and if I want to know for sure, I need to read the original in something close to its entirety. \+ I generally don’t consider myself justified in being offended by someone’s words or actions if I haven’t done at least an hour of research on the specific accusation in question. Unless there’s some specific reason that it’s worth it for me to spend that time, this means I usually don’t get mad at people by reading things. I haven’t identified any problems caused by this choice.* **Think about what’s really worth understanding,** given how much work it takes to understand something. What claims would be important - for *my* actions - if true? Many big stories just don’t qualify. To live with Gell-Mann Earworms, I have to consider myself **deeply ignorant about the vast majority of issues people around me are talking about.** When my parents ask my opinion on the latest news story, I always try to make “I don’t know” my first response. (I’ll then give some opinions, for fun and because we need something to argue about or else they’ll start giving me life advice. But starting with “I don’t know” seems like the right habit.) I generally think to myself, **"I only know about the topics I can put some real time into understanding, and that’s not a lot of topics, and I’d better pick them carefully for my life goals."** I think this is a different mindset than most people have. I think it’s worth trying out. [![Twitter](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-twitter-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fgell-mann-earworms%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Gell-Mann%20Earworms&ct;=1) [![Facebook](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-facebook-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fgell-mann-earworms%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Gell-Mann%20Earworms&ct;=1) [![Reddit](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-reddit-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/reddit/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fgell-mann-earworms%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Gell-Mann%20Earworms&ct;=1) [![More](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/06/ct-addthis-square.png)](https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/menu/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cold-takes.com%2Fgell-mann-earworms%2F&pubid;=ra-60a178324cffc42e&title;=Cold%20Takes%20-%20Gell-Mann%20Earworms&ct;=1) [Subscribe](https://www.cold-takes.com/gell-mann-earworms/#subscribe) [Feedback](https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/4kal2ue/run?posttitle=Gell-Mann%20Earworms) \--- **Footnotes** 1\. Based on times when I have dug into debates and takedowns, I think the odds that someone is being misread are very high. I may give some examples in the future. [↩](#fnref1) For email filter: florpschmop Powered by [Ghost](https://ghost.org/) #### Popular tags [sports](/tag/sports/) [innovationstagnation](/tag/innovationstagnation/) [2star](/tag/2star/) [utopia](/tag/utopia/) Subscribe to Cold Takes ======================= For audio version, search for "Cold Takes Audio" in your podcast app Subscribe **Great!** Check your inbox and click the link to confirm your subscription. **If you don't see it, check your spam!** Please enter a valid email address! $("#lower-right-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1458'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-1").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#upper-right-subscribe-2").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1471'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#cover-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1472'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#footer-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1473'); /\\*LO.events.track('Subscribe-LR');\\*/ setTimeout(function(){$("#subscribe-input").focus();},500); }); $("#final-subscribe").click(function(f) { clicky.goal('1474'); }); //When someone clicks an anchor link, I want the sticky nav to go away. $("a").click(function(f) { body.removeClass('sticky-visible'); lastSt = 9999999999999}); function ctlight() { html.removeClass('theme-dark').addClass('theme-light'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\\_theme', 'light'); //$(".gh-portal-triggerbtn-container").css("background","#0000dd"); /\\* document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#0000dd'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#ffffff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#1a1a1a'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#1a1a1a');\\*/ // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(0px,0)"); // $(".single-content").css("font-weight","400"); existingTheme = "light"; } function ctdark() { html.removeClass('theme-light').addClass('theme-dark'); localStorage.setItem('dawn\\_theme', 'dark'); /\\*document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--brand-color', '#5ceaff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#18141f'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--primary-text-color', '#fff'); document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--secondary-text-color', '#fff');\\*/ //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#14101b'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#121212'); //document.documentElement.style.setProperty('--white-color', '#282c35'); //$(".single-content").css("font-weight","300"); // $("#CT-thumbID").css("transform","translate(19px,0)"); existingTheme = "dark"; } //For light/dark toggle $(".CT-toggle").click(function(g) { g.preventDefault(); if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctlight(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctdark(); } } ); // Parse the URL parameter, then log goal if it is a completed subscription. 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