Gallup website notes var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Gallup website notes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/gallup-website-notes/", "datePublished": "2021-07-23T18:58:08.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-07-23T18:58:08.000Z", "description": "Some years ago, I tooled around on the Gallup website for a while, and I was
surprised at how many things I was surprised by. Here are some of the things I
found interesting:

People are quite satisfied with their jobs
[http://www.gallup.com/poll/1720/Work-Work-Place.aspx#4]. 95% are very satisfied
or somewhat satisfied with coworker relationships, ~80% with their
boss/supervisor.

~44% of people think they'd continue working in their current job if they won
$10 million in the lottery.
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} } //Implement light/dark theme if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctdark(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctlight(); } window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\_site\_ids = clicky\_site\_ids || []; clicky\_site\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Gallup website notes By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Jul 23, 2021 4 min read Gallup website notes ==================== Some years ago, I tooled around on the Gallup website for a while, and I was surprised at how many things I was surprised by. Here are some of the things I found interesting: [People are quite satisfied with their jobs](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1720/Work-Work-Place.aspx#4). 95% are very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with coworker relationships, ~80% with their boss/supervisor. [~44% of people think they'd continue working in their current job if they won $10 million in the lottery.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1720/Work-Work-Place.aspx#4) At the same link: people estimate that they waste an average of an hour a day at work, and that people at their workplace are closer to wasing 1.5 hrs (as of 2007) [Environment](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1615/Environment.aspx): People rank environmental issues highly and even say that the environment should be prioritized above economic growth: ![](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/gallup-environment.png) [More Americans think we spend too much on the military as opposed to too little.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1666/Military-National-Defense.aspx) [~55% of Americans hadn't been on a plane in the last 12mo, as of 2015 (not a pandemic thing).](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1579/Airlines.aspx) [~13% never used the Internet](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1591/Computers-Internet.aspx), as of 2013 - see "Do you, personally, use the internet at your home, place of work or school? That could be through a computer, smartphone, tablet or other device"). [~40% of Americans are straight-up Creationists](http://www.gallup.com/poll/21814/Evolution-Creationism-Intelligent-Design.aspx). As of 2005, [large numbers of people](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1612/Education.aspx#2) thought creationism (54% in favor, 23% unsure) and intelligent design (43% in favor, 35% unsure) should be taught in school. (Compare to evolution: 61% in favor, 19% unsure.) What percentage of people think the taxes they're paying are too high vs. about right? Surprisingly (to me), it's [roughly a draw.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1714/Taxes.aspx) That's a recent thing. [~4% have had 20+ drinks in the last 7 days at the time of the survey (2019)](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1582/Alcohol-Drinking.aspx); ~35% answer "no" to "Do you have occasion to use alcoholic beverages such as liquor, wine or beer?" [Trust in media fell a lot between the 1970s and 2010s](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1663/Media-Use-Evaluation.aspx), though it's been surprisingly stable since then. [~60% believe that cloning animals would be morally wrong.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1681/Moral-Issues.aspx#2) [~50% say religion is "very important" in their life](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1690/Religion.aspx) (I was surprised at how low this is, especially given that nearly half believe in creationism). However, [large %'s of people (60-70%) believe in heaven, hell, angels, the Devil.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1690/Religion.aspx#3) [Football has been (a lot) more popular than baseball for at least 35 years](https://web.archive.org/web/20180115020713/https://news.gallup.com/poll/1696/Baseball.aspx). Baseball and basketball were even as of 2008 (most recent). Americans [would like to see big business have less influence, but are even more worried (by a lot, 67%-26%) about big government](http://www.gallup.com/poll/5248/Big-Business.aspx) (see "In your opinion, which of the following will be the biggest threat to the country in the future -- big business, big labor or big government?") [Here's a chart of public opinion toward each industry](https://news.gallup.com/poll/12748/Business-Industry-Sector-Ratings.aspx). It's pretty much what you'd expect. [Public opinion on ethical standards of people in different professions](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1654/Honesty-Ethics-Professions.aspx). Medical personnel (esp nurses) and schoolteachers top the list. The bottom looks like what you'd expect (car salespeople, members of Congress). [Death Penalty](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1606/Death-Penalty.aspx): ~60% of Americans were in favor as of around 2010, even though a majority thought it had claimed innocent victims in the last 5 yrs (the figure was 59% as of the last measurement in 2009), and 64% thought it was ineffective as a deterrent. (As of 2020 the % in favor of the death penalty is a little lower, 55%; the other two figures I just cited haven't been updated.) [~40% of Americans personally own a gun.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1645/Guns.aspx) [Marriage:](http://www.gallup.com/poll/117328/Marriage.aspx) ~40% think sex outside marriage is immoral. ~10% disapprove of marriage between blacks and whites (as of 2013, the latest data point), down from ~30% (!) in 2002. [The most admired man and woman of each year going back several decades](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1678/Most-Admired-Man-Woman.aspx) (3rd table down). Mostly just Presidents and First Ladies. [~5% of Americans are vegetarian, 3% vegan.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/6424/Nutrition-Food.aspx) And again, ~40% personally own a gun. If you had any remaining doubts that your friends are not normal. At a given point in time, [Americans consistently think they are worse off than a year ago, but will be better off in a year](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1621/Personal-Financial-Situation-Index.aspx). [21% of Americans say they have a physical disability that limits their activity](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1648/Personal-Health-Issues.aspx#2) (as of 2004, the last data point). [LGBT rights](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1651/Homosexual-Relations.aspx). Very big moves in the right directions, but as of May 2021 18% still think that "gay or lesbian relations between consenting adults should not be legal." (This number is falling pretty fast though.) [Marijuana legalization support has soared](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1657/Illegal-Drugs.aspx) from ~16% in 1969 to about 68% today. [~80% are satisfied with the way their lives are going.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1672/Satisfaction-Personal-Life.aspx) Has been fairly stable over time. By contrast, [satisfaction with how things are going in the U.S.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1669/General-Mood-Country.aspx) is pretty volatile. [People seem to commute a lot](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1720/Work-Work-Place.aspx#3) - avg of ~50 minutes a day, ~20% at 90+ minutes. [On smoking:](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1717/Tobacco-Smoking.aspx) of smokers, ~70% consider themselves addicted (as of 2013); 70% say they want to give up smoking; ~90% say they wouldn't smoke if they were to do it over again. 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Gallup website notes var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Gallup website notes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/gallup-website-notes/", "datePublished": "2021-07-23T18:58:08.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-07-23T18:58:08.000Z", "description": "Some years ago, I tooled around on the Gallup website for a while, and I was\nsurprised at how many things I was surprised by. Here are some of the things I\nfound interesting:\n\nPeople are quite satisfied with their jobs\n[http://www.gallup.com/poll/1720/Work-Work-Place.aspx#4]. 95% are very satisfied\nor somewhat satisfied with coworker relationships, ~80% with their\nboss/supervisor.\n\n~44% of people think they'd continue working in their current job if they won\n$10 million in the lottery.\n[http://w", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://www.cold-takes.com/" } } .gh-post-upgrade-cta-content, .gh-post-upgrade-cta { display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; text-align: center; width: 100%; color: #ffffff; font-size: 16px; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta-content { border-radius: 8px; padding: 40px 4vw; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta h2 { color: #ffffff; font-size: 28px; letter-spacing: -0.2px; margin: 0; padding: 0; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta p { margin: 20px 0 0; 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} .theme-light .CT-thumb { transform: translate(0px,0px); } /\\*.u-text-format h3 { color: var(--darker-gray-color) ; }\\*/ //Detect theme var existingTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\\_theme'); if (!existingTheme) { if(navigator.platform.indexOf('Win') > -1) { existingTheme = "light"; } else if(window.matchMedia && window.matchMedia('(prefers-color-scheme: dark)').matches) { existingTheme = "dark"; } else if(window.matchMedia && window.matchMedia('(prefers-color-scheme: light)').matches) { existingTheme = "light"; } } //Implement light/dark theme if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctdark(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctlight(); } window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\\_site\\_ids = clicky\\_site\\_ids || []; clicky\\_site\\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Gallup website notes By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Jul 23, 2021 4 min read Gallup website notes ==================== Some years ago, I tooled around on the Gallup website for a while, and I was surprised at how many things I was surprised by. Here are some of the things I found interesting: [People are quite satisfied with their jobs](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1720/Work-Work-Place.aspx#4). 95% are very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with coworker relationships, ~80% with their boss/supervisor. [~44% of people think they'd continue working in their current job if they won $10 million in the lottery.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1720/Work-Work-Place.aspx#4) At the same link: people estimate that they waste an average of an hour a day at work, and that people at their workplace are closer to wasing 1.5 hrs (as of 2007) [Environment](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1615/Environment.aspx): People rank environmental issues highly and even say that the environment should be prioritized above economic growth: ![](https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/gallup-environment.png) [More Americans think we spend too much on the military as opposed to too little.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1666/Military-National-Defense.aspx) [~55% of Americans hadn't been on a plane in the last 12mo, as of 2015 (not a pandemic thing).](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1579/Airlines.aspx) [~13% never used the Internet](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1591/Computers-Internet.aspx), as of 2013 - see "Do you, personally, use the internet at your home, place of work or school? That could be through a computer, smartphone, tablet or other device"). [~40% of Americans are straight-up Creationists](http://www.gallup.com/poll/21814/Evolution-Creationism-Intelligent-Design.aspx). As of 2005, [large numbers of people](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1612/Education.aspx#2) thought creationism (54% in favor, 23% unsure) and intelligent design (43% in favor, 35% unsure) should be taught in school. (Compare to evolution: 61% in favor, 19% unsure.) What percentage of people think the taxes they're paying are too high vs. about right? Surprisingly (to me), it's [roughly a draw.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1714/Taxes.aspx) That's a recent thing. [~4% have had 20+ drinks in the last 7 days at the time of the survey (2019)](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1582/Alcohol-Drinking.aspx); ~35% answer "no" to "Do you have occasion to use alcoholic beverages such as liquor, wine or beer?" [Trust in media fell a lot between the 1970s and 2010s](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1663/Media-Use-Evaluation.aspx), though it's been surprisingly stable since then. [~60% believe that cloning animals would be morally wrong.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1681/Moral-Issues.aspx#2) [~50% say religion is "very important" in their life](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1690/Religion.aspx) (I was surprised at how low this is, especially given that nearly half believe in creationism). However, [large %'s of people (60-70%) believe in heaven, hell, angels, the Devil.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1690/Religion.aspx#3) [Football has been (a lot) more popular than baseball for at least 35 years](https://web.archive.org/web/20180115020713/https://news.gallup.com/poll/1696/Baseball.aspx). Baseball and basketball were even as of 2008 (most recent). Americans [would like to see big business have less influence, but are even more worried (by a lot, 67%-26%) about big government](http://www.gallup.com/poll/5248/Big-Business.aspx) (see "In your opinion, which of the following will be the biggest threat to the country in the future -- big business, big labor or big government?") [Here's a chart of public opinion toward each industry](https://news.gallup.com/poll/12748/Business-Industry-Sector-Ratings.aspx). It's pretty much what you'd expect. [Public opinion on ethical standards of people in different professions](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1654/Honesty-Ethics-Professions.aspx). Medical personnel (esp nurses) and schoolteachers top the list. The bottom looks like what you'd expect (car salespeople, members of Congress). [Death Penalty](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1606/Death-Penalty.aspx): ~60% of Americans were in favor as of around 2010, even though a majority thought it had claimed innocent victims in the last 5 yrs (the figure was 59% as of the last measurement in 2009), and 64% thought it was ineffective as a deterrent. (As of 2020 the % in favor of the death penalty is a little lower, 55%; the other two figures I just cited haven't been updated.) [~40% of Americans personally own a gun.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1645/Guns.aspx) [Marriage:](http://www.gallup.com/poll/117328/Marriage.aspx) ~40% think sex outside marriage is immoral. ~10% disapprove of marriage between blacks and whites (as of 2013, the latest data point), down from ~30% (!) in 2002. [The most admired man and woman of each year going back several decades](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1678/Most-Admired-Man-Woman.aspx) (3rd table down). Mostly just Presidents and First Ladies. [~5% of Americans are vegetarian, 3% vegan.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/6424/Nutrition-Food.aspx) And again, ~40% personally own a gun. If you had any remaining doubts that your friends are not normal. At a given point in time, [Americans consistently think they are worse off than a year ago, but will be better off in a year](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1621/Personal-Financial-Situation-Index.aspx). [21% of Americans say they have a physical disability that limits their activity](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1648/Personal-Health-Issues.aspx#2) (as of 2004, the last data point). [LGBT rights](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1651/Homosexual-Relations.aspx). Very big moves in the right directions, but as of May 2021 18% still think that "gay or lesbian relations between consenting adults should not be legal." (This number is falling pretty fast though.) [Marijuana legalization support has soared](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1657/Illegal-Drugs.aspx) from ~16% in 1969 to about 68% today. [~80% are satisfied with the way their lives are going.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1672/Satisfaction-Personal-Life.aspx) Has been fairly stable over time. By contrast, [satisfaction with how things are going in the U.S.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1669/General-Mood-Country.aspx) is pretty volatile. [People seem to commute a lot](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1720/Work-Work-Place.aspx#3) - avg of ~50 minutes a day, ~20% at 90+ minutes. [On smoking:](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1717/Tobacco-Smoking.aspx) of smokers, ~70% consider themselves addicted (as of 2013); 70% say they want to give up smoking; ~90% say they wouldn't smoke if they were to do it over again. 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Track records for those who have made lots of predictions var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Track records for those who have made lots of predictions", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/prediction-track-records-i-know-of/", "datePublished": "2021-07-21T18:16:40.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-07-21T20:50:54.000Z", "description": "I love it when someone makes lots of predictions and then we can see their track
record after the fact. Here's a collection of links to track records for
anyone/anything interesting that has them tabulated, AFAIK.

The basic idea
The basic idea is that someone can write down specific, public predictions about
the world with probabilities attached, like "60% chance that X wins the 2020
election." If they make a lot of predictions, they can then come back and assess
whether their overall body of w", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://www.cold-takes.com/" } } .gh-post-upgrade-cta-content, .gh-post-upgrade-cta { display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; text-align: center; width: 100%; color: #ffffff; font-size: 16px; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta-content { border-radius: 8px; padding: 40px 4vw; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta h2 { color: #ffffff; font-size: 28px; letter-spacing: -0.2px; margin: 0; padding: 0; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta p { margin: 20px 0 0; padding: 0; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta small { font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: -0.2px; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta a { color: #ffffff; cursor: pointer; font-weight: 500; box-shadow: none; text-decoration: underline; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta a:hover { color: #ffffff; opacity: 0.8; box-shadow: none; text-decoration: underline; } .gh-post-upgrade-cta a.gh-btn { display: block; 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} } //Implement light/dark theme if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctdark(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctlight(); } window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\_site\_ids = clicky\_site\_ids || []; clicky\_site\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Track records for those who have made lots of predictions By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Jul 21, 2021 3 min read Track records for those who have made lots of predictions ========================================================= I love it when someone makes lots of predictions and then we can see their track record after the fact. Here's a collection of links to track records for anyone/anything interesting that has them tabulated, AFAIK. The basic idea \-------------- The basic idea is that someone can write down specific, public predictions about the world with probabilities attached, like "60% chance that X wins the 2020 election." If they make a lot of predictions, they can then come back and assess whether their overall body of work was "well calibrated," which means that things they thought would happen 60% of the time happened 60% of the time; things they thought would happen 80% of the time happened 80% of the time; etc. This is done using a "calibration curve" (most of the links below explain how the curve works; [this explanation](https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html) is pretty compact). People with good historical calibration then have evidence of their trustworthiness going forward. More on this general idea in the book [Superforecasting](https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B015LYZGW6/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr;=1) (and more briefly at [this Open Philanthropy blog post](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/efforts-improve-accuracy-our-judgments-and-forecasts)). Good track records \------------------ * [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/)* [HyperMind](https://www.hypermind.com/en/can-hypermind-predict-the-future/), which contracts to create predictions. * A few individuals: \+ [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2020-predictions-calibration-results) (this links to year-by-year track records, though I wish all the years were combined in one place). \+ [@peterhurford Twitter predictions](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0) (and [summary](https://twitter.com/peterwildeford/status/1361388809590611969)). \+ [Gwern](https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern). OK-to-pretty-good track records \------------------------------- * [ElectionBettingOdds.com](https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html), which forecasts elections based on prediction markets (unfortunately not updated for 2020 elections yet). Good overall, though it looks like events they score as 20-30% likely are more likely to happen than predicted. (I wish they would combine the 20-30% predictions with the 70-80% predictions etc., since a 20-30% prediction that something will happen is just like a 70-80% prediction that it won't.) * [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/), a community forecasting site - skip to the last chart, which is the same idea as the 2nd chart from ElectionBettingOdds, though harder to read. Seems to be biased in the opposite direction from ElectionBettingOdds.com, i.e., overrating the likelihood of pretty unlikely events. * [All users in aggregate for PredictionBook](https://predictionbook.com/predictions) (a website that lets individuals track their own predictions) - well calibrated except at the very confident end. I'd guess this is a "wisdom of crowds" thing; it wouldn't make me trust a particular PredictionBook user very much. Less good track records \----------------------- [Track record for Scott Adams](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KiaNbaa1MJJbWeTC8MiYyc76cqkrmk1v8WA5WFUS_hI/edit#gid=<PHONE>), scored by someone other than Scott Adams (so not 100% reliable, though I checked a couple of them). It's really bad, probably easier to see from the "Predictions" sheet than from the chart. For example he [tweeted](https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1273823715977916416) "I put Trump's odds of winning the election at 100% (unless something big changes) with a 50% chance of a successful coup" on 6/18/2020, [and](https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1273823715977916416) "If I had to bet today, Trump has the edge, 60-40" *two days after the election.* (He also [gave](https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1082622557365231616) 0% to Biden winning the nomination, earlier.) The reason I'm bothering with this (and probably the reason the maker of the spreadsheet did) is that Adams has gotten attention in some circles for his highly confident predictions of a Trump win in 2016, and I want to make the general point that a small # of impressive predictions can be very misleading, since the successful predictions tend to get more attention than the unsuccessful predictions. 2015 evidence that a [famous ESPN sports analyst](https://deadspin.com/espns-chad-ford-has-been-retroactively-editing-draft-bo-<PHONE>) had actually been editing his prediction-like statements (mock draft rankings) to make them look better with the benefit of hindsight. Tangentially related \-------------------- [Independent analysis of Ray Kurzweil's predictions about 2019, made in 1999](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NcGBmDEe5qXB7dFBF/assessing-kurzweil-predictions-about-2019-the-results). He didn't give probabilities, and got more than twice as many wrong as right, though I think it's fair of the author to end with "I strongly suspect that most people's 1999 predictions about 2019 would have been a lot worse." [Open Philanthropy's attempt to assess the general accuracy of very long-range forecasts](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/how-feasible-long-range-forecasting) mostly concluded that it's too hard to assess because of things like "People didn't make clear enough predictions or give probabilities." 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Track records for those who have made lots of predictions var siteUrl = 'https://www.cold-takes.com'; var localTheme = localStorage.getItem('dawn\\_theme'); switch (localTheme) { case 'dark': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-dark'); break; case 'light': document.documentElement.classList.add('theme-light'); break; default: break; } { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Article", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Cold Takes", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/favicon.ico", "width": 48, "height": 48 } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Holden Karnofsky", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/content/images/2021/07/HK-headshot-current---compressed-1.jpg", "width": 1600, "height": 1067 }, "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/author/holden/", "sameAs": [ "https://www.cold-takes.com/about/" ] }, "headline": "Track records for those who have made lots of predictions", "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/prediction-track-records-i-know-of/", "datePublished": "2021-07-21T18:16:40.000Z", "dateModified": "2021-07-21T20:50:54.000Z", "description": "I love it when someone makes lots of predictions and then we can see their track\nrecord after the fact. Here's a collection of links to track records for\nanyone/anything interesting that has them tabulated, AFAIK.\n\nThe basic idea\nThe basic idea is that someone can write down specific, public predictions about\nthe world with probabilities attached, like "60% chance that X wins the 2020\nelection." 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} else if(window.matchMedia && window.matchMedia('(prefers-color-scheme: light)').matches) { existingTheme = "light"; } } //Implement light/dark theme if(existingTheme == "dark") { ctdark(); } else if(existingTheme == 'light') { ctlight(); } window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-TZK0WDB1DH'); var clicky\\_site\\_ids = clicky\\_site\\_ids || []; clicky\\_site\\_ids.push(101323562); ![Clicky](//in.getclicky.com/101323562ns.gif) :root {--ghost-accent-color: #888888;} [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [About (+highlights)](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/) [Most Important Century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Subscribe (free)](#subscribe) [Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com) - Track records for those who have made lots of predictions By [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/about/ "Holden Karnofsky") Jul 21, 2021 3 min read Track records for those who have made lots of predictions ========================================================= I love it when someone makes lots of predictions and then we can see their track record after the fact. Here's a collection of links to track records for anyone/anything interesting that has them tabulated, AFAIK. The basic idea \-------------- The basic idea is that someone can write down specific, public predictions about the world with probabilities attached, like "60% chance that X wins the 2020 election." If they make a lot of predictions, they can then come back and assess whether their overall body of work was "well calibrated," which means that things they thought would happen 60% of the time happened 60% of the time; things they thought would happen 80% of the time happened 80% of the time; etc. This is done using a "calibration curve" (most of the links below explain how the curve works; [this explanation](https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html) is pretty compact). People with good historical calibration then have evidence of their trustworthiness going forward. More on this general idea in the book [Superforecasting](https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B015LYZGW6/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr;=1) (and more briefly at [this Open Philanthropy blog post](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/efforts-improve-accuracy-our-judgments-and-forecasts)). Good track records \------------------ * [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/)* [HyperMind](https://www.hypermind.com/en/can-hypermind-predict-the-future/), which contracts to create predictions. * A few individuals: \+ [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2020-predictions-calibration-results) (this links to year-by-year track records, though I wish all the years were combined in one place). \+ [@peterhurford Twitter predictions](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgwhWBHFrWZUGJn7yTyAhDR4vi0/edit#gid=0) (and [summary](https://twitter.com/peterwildeford/status/1361388809590611969)). \+ [Gwern](https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern). OK-to-pretty-good track records \------------------------------- * [ElectionBettingOdds.com](https://electionbettingodds.com/TrackRecord.html), which forecasts elections based on prediction markets (unfortunately not updated for 2020 elections yet). Good overall, though it looks like events they score as 20-30% likely are more likely to happen than predicted. (I wish they would combine the 20-30% predictions with the 70-80% predictions etc., since a 20-30% prediction that something will happen is just like a 70-80% prediction that it won't.) * [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/), a community forecasting site - skip to the last chart, which is the same idea as the 2nd chart from ElectionBettingOdds, though harder to read. Seems to be biased in the opposite direction from ElectionBettingOdds.com, i.e., overrating the likelihood of pretty unlikely events. * [All users in aggregate for PredictionBook](https://predictionbook.com/predictions) (a website that lets individuals track their own predictions) - well calibrated except at the very confident end. I'd guess this is a "wisdom of crowds" thing; it wouldn't make me trust a particular PredictionBook user very much. Less good track records \----------------------- [Track record for Scott Adams](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KiaNbaa1MJJbWeTC8MiYyc76cqkrmk1v8WA5WFUS_hI/edit#gid=2031713830), scored by someone other than Scott Adams (so not 100% reliable, though I checked a couple of them). It's really bad, probably easier to see from the "Predictions" sheet than from the chart. For example he [tweeted](https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1273823715977916416) "I put Trump’s odds of winning the election at 100% (unless something big changes) with a 50% chance of a successful coup" on 6/18/2020, [and](https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1273823715977916416) "If I had to bet today, Trump has the edge, 60-40" *two days after the election.* (He also [gave](https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1082622557365231616) 0% to Biden winning the nomination, earlier.) The reason I'm bothering with this (and probably the reason the maker of the spreadsheet did) is that Adams has gotten attention in some circles for his highly confident predictions of a Trump win in 2016, and I want to make the general point that a small # of impressive predictions can be very misleading, since the successful predictions tend to get more attention than the unsuccessful predictions. 2015 evidence that a [famous ESPN sports analyst](https://deadspin.com/espns-chad-ford-has-been-retroactively-editing-draft-bo-1681631642) had actually been editing his prediction-like statements (mock draft rankings) to make them look better with the benefit of hindsight. Tangentially related \-------------------- [Independent analysis of Ray Kurzweil's predictions about 2019, made in 1999](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NcGBmDEe5qXB7dFBF/assessing-kurzweil-predictions-about-2019-the-results). He didn't give probabilities, and got more than twice as many wrong as right, though I think it's fair of the author to end with "I strongly suspect that most people's 1999 predictions about 2019 would have been a lot worse." [Open Philanthropy's attempt to assess the general accuracy of very long-range forecasts](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/how-feasible-long-range-forecasting) mostly concluded that it's too hard to assess because of things like "People didn't make clear enough predictions or give probabilities." 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