Table 6: Average percentage skill when forecasting precipitation in the contiguous U.S. The best performing models within each group are shown in bold, while the best performing models overall are shown in green.
Precipitation, weeks 3-4
Group	Model	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	Overall
Baselines	Deb. CFSv2	15.26±3.38	8.99±3.52	5.96±3.72	5.69±3.88	3.69±3.74	2.19±3.61	0.34±4.05	4.01±3.44	3.76±3.08	7.19±3.76	5.77±1.11
Persistence	14.24±3.03	9.61±3.68	5.96±3.07	6.46±3.24	7.2±3.63	1.3±2.83	13.46±3.89	6.72±2.76	8.43±3.27	10.32±2.81	8.31±1.0
ABC	Climatology++	12.24±3.22	24.09±3.46	13.4±2.89	15.67±2.83	7.97±3.69	17.88±3.04	14.29±3.69	13.39±3.2	8.76±3.11	22.65±2.67	15.04±1.06
CFSv2++	24.58±3.4	19.08±2.81	17.44±3.11	16.15±2.86	7.98±3.5	12.42±3.08	14.75±3.79	13.42±3.18	13.09±4.11	23.05±2.74	16.21±1.04
Persistence++	21.98±2.17	14.03±2.36	16.63±2.96	13.9±2.78	9.38±3.46	8.12±2.6	5.1±3.38	13.33±3.06	12.89±2.74	17.48±2.74	13.38±0.89
Learning	AutoKNN	13.86±3.37	18.66±4.01	10.13±3.87	8.6±4.08	3.11±4.87	3.03±4.03	5.29±4.94	-0.5±3.7	-3.27±3.72	7.56±3.35	6.66±1.29
LocalBoosting	6.32±2.88	15.96±2.16	15.73±2.54	7.7±2.82	4.27±2.83	2.64±2.63	11.77±3.52	13.79±2.4	10.68±2.47	19.46±2.48	10.82±0.88
MultiLLR	12.44±3.12	4.87±3.46	14.72±3.11	10.74±3.54	5.47±3.97	5.75±3.18	8.49±3.52	7.83±2.43	8.28±3.25	16.16±2.23	9.49±1.02
Prophet	18.23±2.77	12.42±3.04	14.29±2.41	15.85±2.14	5.33±3.13	13.49±2.58	11.31±3.34	13.19±2.79	10.77±2.65	20.01±2.46	13.51±0.9
Salient 2.0	17.06±4.21	20.38±3.88	17.82±4.1	11.24±4.06	5.95±5.5	3.0±4.14	5.45±5.33	2.44±3.89	2.28±4.19	14.99±3.35	10.11±1.37
Ensembles	Uniform ABC	26.72±3.12	23.2±2.64	19.9±3.37	19.79±2.7	11.21±3.47	15.46±2.98	15.01±3.75	16.49±3.25	14.98±3.73	25.16±2.6	18.84±0.99
Online ABC	24.72±3.31	23.45±2.65	18.74±3.2	20.07±2.65	11.44±3.62	18.29±3.11	15.35±3.86	16.29±3.25	14.38±3.7	25.03±2.49	18.81±1.03
Precipitation, weeks 5-6
Baselines	Deb. CFSv2	11.73±3.16	10.98±3.22	8.35±3.71	1.03±3.35	-4.91±3.37	0.98±3.46	2.77±3.58	4.24±3.21	-1.3±3.12	8.73±3.7	4.28±1.06
Persistence	6.85±3.87	6.96±3.42	12.34±3.26	4.32±3.2	3.83±3.61	1.87±3.05	10.9±3.5	8.73±2.91	5.62±3.22	13.04±2.77	7.41±1.02
ABC	Climatology++	12.28±3.21	24.11±3.5	13.33±2.89	15.67±2.83	7.97±3.69	17.88±3.04	13.66±3.64	13.39±3.2	8.76±3.11	22.65±2.67	14.99±1.06
CFSv2++	23.11±3.33	18.75±2.81	22.87±2.96	14.88±2.59	8.42±3.33	13.44±3.44	7.74±4.31	15.34±3.21	13.4±3.7	22.17±2.67	16.11±1.04
Persistence++	17.44±2.65	9.98±2.81	16.9±2.61	7.68±2.76	2.44±3.38	3.83±2.83	3.6±3.58	11.26±2.42	7.6±2.6	16.26±2.22	9.77±0.89
Learning	AutoKNN	12.33±3.58	16.31±4.18	11.16±3.96	6.85±3.82	3.31±5.04	5.07±4.13	1.53±5.06	-1.05±3.72	-4.58±3.64	7.88±3.51	5.93±1.3
LocalBoosting	9.81±2.98	9.26±2.38	13.24±2.34	4.53±3.04	5.31±2.96	6.7±2.7	10.25±3.7	13.55±2.78	10.31±2.71	14.3±2.44	9.72±0.9
MultiLLR	12.42±3.58	5.99±3.05	10.69±2.76	7.46±3.39	0.63±4.03	1.97±3.32	10.03±3.54	8.46±2.79	6.83±3.13	15.5±2.37	7.97±1.03
Prophet	17.92±2.78	12.41±3.04	14.74±2.42	15.86±2.14	5.44±3.1	13.54±2.61	10.06±3.45	13.08±2.79	10.75±2.65	19.94±2.48	13.41±0.91
Salient 2.0	17.06±4.18	20.26±3.86	17.73±4.03	11.48±4.03	5.91±5.47	2.77±4.09	5.1±5.29	2.06±3.99	2.1±4.19	14.86±3.41	9.99±1.37
Ensembles	Uniform ABC	25.31±3.11	23.05±2.64	23.45±2.82	17.89±2.62	9.17±3.4	16.63±3.57	11.23±4.0	16.8±3.08	13.93±3.34	25.24±2.37	18.35±0.98
Online ABC	23.28±3.2	23.32±2.72	21.65±2.86	18.11±2.54	7.69±3.59	17.29±3.5	12.48±3.96	16.29±3.12	12.86±3.5	25.24±2.41	17.88±1.02