Temperature, weeks 3-4
Group	Model	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	Overall
Baselines	Deb. CFSv2	33.26±5.13	26.66±6.65	17.32±5.58	27.66±5.85	35.73±5.71	33.07±5.77	13.36±5.92	19.42±6.07	18.39±6.12	24.14±6.43	24.94±1.88
Persistence	27.76±5.36	-1.64±7.59	-2.16±7.09	17.98±7.15	20.41±7.15	7.5±7.86	3.78±7.49	-0.39±7.24	13.74±6.99	19.19±7.52	10.64±2.31
ABC	Climatology++	11.5±5.68	12.83±5.84	7.48±6.58	10.93±5.82	29.44±6.06	16.45±6.02	20.17±6.11	18.19±5.86	22.39±5.97	36.79±4.32	18.61±1.93
CFSv2++	34.46±4.77	43.23±5.63	13.67±5.27	32.3±5.41	37.36±5.18	43.06±4.79	26.1±5.29	26.93±6.4	33.85±5.32	30.77±5.91	32.2±1.74
Persistence++	41.21±3.96	47.39±4.86	12.48±4.78	27.99±5.7	37.44±4.89	41.03±5.11	24.48±4.95	32.64±6.16	18.51±6.01	40.53±5.51	32.4±1.72
Learning	AutoKNN	16.77±4.53	3.01±5.08	5.62±5.28	4.74±4.77	12.99±5.19	14.6±5.07	14.46±4.65	11.32±4.85	11.65±5.32	29.2±5.38	12.43±1.61
LocalBoosting	10.51±5.65	17.85±5.14	5.12±3.99	15.5±5.34	20.68±4.03	17.94±5.17	1.99±5.67	18.95±4.69	17.46±5.18	17.88±5.48	14.44±1.63
MultiLLR	34.05±5.15	31.03±5.95	9.57±4.75	22.7±5.94	29.87±5.92	23.93±5.57	18.85±5.64	20.68±5.78	29.98±5.46	24.16±6.31	24.5±1.8
Prophet	18.31±4.37	14.51±5.05	3.86±4.15	14.3±4.41	14.8±4.94	27.74±5.03	26.6±5.11	25.76±6.84	20.76±5.14	35.74±3.6	20.21±1.57
Salient 2.0	6.29±6.46	2.31±6.3	0.01±6.17	-5.73±6.59	15.13±5.68	-4.32±6.57	23.01±6.03	28.83±6.02	14.54±6.08	32.73±6.21	11.24±2.03
Ensembles	Uniform ABC	40.16±4.4	45.49±5.27	12.4±5.5	30.33±5.84	39.06±5.18	42.23±5.15	28.85±4.96	29.12±6.1	30.31±5.58	37.34±5.66	33.55±1.72
Online ABC	35.98±4.49	45.1±5.59	12.5±5.13	31.75±5.46	38.57±5.11	44.09±4.74	27.77±5.23	29.35±6.46	31.04±5.31	36.26±5.91	33.26±1.72
Temperature, weeks 5-6
Baselines	Deb. CFSv2	33.4±4.82	36.09±5.92	1.35±6.32	15.48±6.27	25.72±5.32	26.47±5.69	4.31±6.1	15.82±6.26	8.47±6.63	23.54±6.31	19.12±1.94
Persistence	20.28±5.93	-9.52±7.92	0.4±7.5	18.22±6.96	23.24±7.51	-1.24±8.34	-3.89±7.43	-5.41±7.6	6.15±6.75	13.55±7.53	6.22±2.38
ABC	Climatology++	11.5±5.68	12.83±5.84	7.48±6.58	10.93±5.82	29.44±6.06	16.45±6.02	22.79±5.83	18.19±5.86	22.39±5.97	36.79±4.32	18.87±1.92
CFSv2++	31.11±4.28	38.71±5.27	8.61±4.91	34.55±5.07	38.72±6.01	43.36±5.12	12.94±5.46	24.37±6.33	19.7±5.9	35.38±5.04	28.8±1.76
Persistence++	34.74±4.19	39.38±4.31	6.45±4.79	16.37±5.83	32.26±4.63	36.06±5.07	16.26±4.9	25.05±5.81	18.43±5.8	41.9±4.71	26.73±1.67
Learning	AutoKNN	4.73±4.61	-0.32±4.79	8.06±4.63	5.8±4.68	11.43±4.93	6.28±4.29	9.89±3.57	8.21±4.67	4.44±5.19	27.12±5.43	8.56±1.52
LocalBoosting	8.63±5.64	15.77±5.19	3.24±4.12	5.81±5.66	22.93±4.12	7.99±5.41	7.84±5.85	18.43±4.74	13.22±5.18	22.87±4.84	12.69±1.64
MultiLLR	19.89±5.49	23.05±5.76	3.55±5.5	17.71±4.98	13.2±6.72	26.98±5.67	12.09±6.44	12.08±5.39	14.44±5.91	23.63±6.36	16.68±1.85
Prophet	17.23±4.41	13.04±4.9	3.45±4.18	12.99±4.43	13.74±4.98	27.2±5.03	27.74±5.05	26.16±6.87	20.72±5.14	35.83±3.61	19.78±1.57
Salient 2.0	7.13±6.54	-1.75±6.46	8.14±6.08	-5.24±6.69	13.94±5.63	-9.7±6.46	23.99±5.86	30.29±6.11	16.04±5.68	35.36±6.17	11.77±2.03
Ensembles	Uniform ABC	36.14±4.11	41.1±4.8	8.66±5.13	28.47±5.75	39.19±5.42	41.42±5.24	17.67±5.08	26.02±5.83	21.86±5.88	41.15±4.68	30.22±1.7
Online ABC	33.3±4.15	40.1±5.18	7.82±4.86	30.41±5.23	39.61±5.79	42.12±5.07	15.76±5.31	25.86±6.16	21.32±5.91	40.74±4.78	29.76±1.72