Table 4: Percentage improvement over mean debiased CFSv2 RMSE when forecasting precipitation in the contiguous U.S. The best performing models within each class of models are shown in bold, while the best performing models overall are shown in green.
Precipitation, weeks 3-4
Group	Model	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	Overall
Baselines	Climatology	5.37±1.87	7.91±1.69	7.62±1.65	9.42±2.11	9.42±1.82	10.36±1.18	10.1±2.05	5.95±1.28	6.26±1.31	5.35±1.49	7.79±0.54
Persistence	-29.66±4.88	-26.25±4.43	-28.19±3.37	-26.57±3.83	-24.47±5.02	-32.78±5.7	-21.24±5.48	-31.45±3.72	-31.65±4.46	-29.99±4.1	-28.27±1.4
ABC	Climatology++	6.03±1.77	10.48±1.58	8.31±1.6	10.58±2.29	9.5±1.93	11.82±1.91	11.17±1.92	6.78±1.29	6.36±1.36	7.63±1.43	8.86±0.54
CFSv2++	8.62±1.78	8.72±1.74	8.5±1.44	9.71±1.99	7.31±1.57	9.32±1.49	10.32±1.82	6.03±1.54	6.66±1.29	7.73±1.24	8.26±0.51
Persistence++	7.6±1.67	8.82±1.65	9.04±1.45	10.19±1.99	9.55±1.78	10.33±1.72	9.77±1.84	6.79±1.33	7.04±1.3	6.93±1.26	8.61±0.51
Learning	AutoKN	6.33±1.99	9.68±1.93	8.03±1.67	9.66±2.08	8.78±2.13	9.8±1.95	10.14±1.89	4.76±1.49	4.83±1.67	5.36±1.6	7.73±0.58
LocalBoosting	4.37±1.82	8.88±1.58	8.65±1.65	8.4±2.39	6.81±2.17	6.87±2.43	10.36±1.84	6.65±1.37	6.03±1.46	6.96±1.6	7.36±0.56
MultiLLR	4.91±1.8	5.15±2.29	8.3±1.37	9.69±1.94	7.38±1.66	9.15±1.52	9.57±1.79	5.14±1.22	5.71±1.25	6.16±1.36	7.12±0.51
Prophet	6.98±1.8	8.11±1.78	8.3±1.59	10.8±2.21	8.3±1.99	11.04±1.52	10.8±1.97	6.6±1.28	6.56±1.36	7.33±1.45	8.42±0.52
Salient 2.0	3.2±2.45	6.37±2.33	5.18±2.17	2.76±2.67	3.07±3.0	2.16±2.73	5.64±2.28	-1.06±2.05	-0.21±2.24	3.1±1.93	2.97±0.78
Ensembles	Uniform ABC	8.34±1.73	10.35±1.62	9.47±1.37	11.01±2.03	9.9±1.76	11.46±1.61	11.13±1.84	7.21±1.33	7.4±1.34	8.26±1.26	9.45±0.5
Online ABC	8.82±1.81	10.24±1.64	9.35±1.46	10.94±2.07	10.01±1.68	11.79±1.68	11.18±1.89	7.16±1.3	7.3±1.34	8.28±1.24	9.5±0.5
Precipitation, weeks 5-6
Baselines	Climatology	5.1±1.57	textbfh9.18±1.46	textbfh9.33±1.56	textbfh9.67±1.43	textbff12.12±1.74	textbff11.09±1.87	textbff7.45±1.31	textbff42.22±0.95	textbff6.97±1.33	textbff5.52±1.36	textbff7.51±0.48
Persistence	-37.12±5.31	-32.23±4.32	-27.77±3.88	-29.87±3.39	-26.92±4.95	-34.16±5.52	-29.11±4.56	-35.06±5.24	-34.24±4.6	-33.06±3.93	-31.92±1.43
ABC	Climatology++	5.78±1.67	9.59±1.44	7.61±1.52	textbfh10.82±1.53	textbfh12.21±1.91	12.55±1.95	8.46±1.3	textbff0.06±0.92	7.06±1.41	textbff5.84±1.39	textbff8.57±0.49
CFSv2++	7.84±1.31	7.87±1.53	9.22±1.4	9.82±1.38	10.5±1.7	10.13±1.3	6.46±1.32	4.94±1.16	textbff7.28±1.23	5.71±1.25	8.03±0.44
Persistence++	6.44±1.33	7.42±1.46	8.28±1.4	9.71±1.32	11.62±1.79	10.71±1.77	7.05±1.23	4.83±0.96	7.19±1.23	4.85±1.19	7.89±0.45
Learning	AutoKN	5.85±1.59	textbfh8.31±1.76	7.5±1.44	9.57±1.48	textbfh11.64±2.05	10.87±1.9	6.94±1.33	2.85±1.09	5.34±1.4	3.66±1.38	7.33±0.5
LocalBoosting	4.94±1.71	5.76±1.55	7.24±1.58	7.84±1.66	9.89±1.98	9.64±2.02	7.28±1.29	3.85±1.07	6.94±1.44	3.59±1.51	6.89±0.49
MultiLLR	4.94±1.45	5.51±1.63	7.2±1.52	8.49±1.32	9.07±1.74	9.17±1.73	7.49±1.32	3.85±1.06	6.04±1.3	4.18±1.45	6.65±0.46
Prophet	textbfh6.65±1.56	7.19±1.61	7.71±1.51	textbfh10.53±1.5	11.38±1.97	textbff11.77±1.86	textbff7.64±1.32	4.84±0.96	textbff7.19±1.48	textbff5.52±1.46	textbff8.12±0.48
Salient 2.0	2.93±2.06	5.39±2.14	4.53±1.88	3.01±2.09	5.89±2.97	2.89±2.53	3.22±2.11	-3.3±1.68	0.51±1.86	1.24±1.89	2.65±0.7
Ensembles	Uniform ABC	7.7±1.39	textbfh9.35±1.44	textbfh9.19±1.29	11.0±1.35	12.39±1.79	12.26±1.54	8.05±1.2	5.58±0.94	7.89±1.31	6.35±1.22	9.05±0.44
Online ABC	textbfh7.79±1.39	9.35±1.46	9.06±1.38	11.06±1.36	12.17±1.71	textbfh12.31±1.59	textbfh8.23±1.27	5.49±0.93	7.72±1.32	6.46±1.22	9.03±0.43