SlowGuess/NeurIPS_2023_OCR huggingface dataset:
Table 7: Model comparison
MODEL	ΔNLLtrain	ptrain	qtrain	ΔNLLtest	ptest	qtest
0-THEORY OF MIND	0.31 ± 0.06	10-6	10-6	0.44 ± 0.08	10-7	10-6
shared BELIEFS	0.56 ± 0.12	10-5	10-5	0.65 ± 0.11	10-7	10-7
FLEXIBLE IN-FIGHT POLICY	0.46 ± 0.17	0.01	0.01	0.29 ± 0.13	0.03	0.04
RESCORLA-WAGNER	0.13 ± 0.12	0.29	0.29	0.14 ± 0.11	0.21	0.21
FIXED PRIOR BELIEFS	0.57 ± 0.11	10-6	10-6	0.68 ± 0.12	10-7	10-7
FIXED POSTERIOR BELIEFS	0.52 ± 0.10	10-6	10-6	0.51 ± 0.11	10-5	10-5
SHUFFLED BODY WEIGHTS	0.26 ± 0.10	0.02	0.02	0.18 ± 0.10	0.07	0.08
WIDE BODY WEIGHT PRIOR	0.12 ± 0.02	10-7	10-6	0.12 ± 0.02	10-6	10-6
C.4 Normative theory of social conflict
Lastly, we summarize our behavioral and neural findings to propose a reward-based model of decision-making during social conflict.
1. Mouse decisions in chronic social conflict can be described with a game theory model where agents choose actions to maximize the perceived reward of winning minus the cost of losing, and the probability of winning depends on the animals' strengths;
2. Animals' behavior is consistent with the perceived cost of losing while attacking being larger than the cost of losing while defending and also larger than the reward for winning;
3. Animals' actions and neural activity are consistent with maintaining the first-order Theory of Mind (1-ToM) endowing animals with primary beliefs about their strengths and strengths of their opponents, and secondary beliefs about the beliefs of their opponents;
4. Initial beliefs, best describing the animals' actions in the model, are based on the body weight for oneself and reflect the population average for opponents;
5. Belief updates, consistent with animals' behavior, are described with Bayes' rule based on observed actions and interaction outcomes;
6. Animals' actions are likely decided before each agonistic interaction and do not adjust to opponents' actions during an agonistic interaction.
These conclusions suggest that pathological aggression and social defeat may emerge from beliefs about own strength, updated over interactions.