本の流域については、流量変化の絶対値は小さいものの、夏季以外において流量が低下傾向にあり、渇水リスクが若干増加することがわかった。

### 5. 研究成果の主な発表状況

## (1) 主な誌上発表

## <査読付き論文>

1) Takayabu, Y. N. and M. Kimoto (2008): Diurnal variations in rainfall simulated using the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC AGCM and dependence on cumulus schemes. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86A, 163–173.

2) Suzuki, T., K. Ninomiya, Y. N. Takayabu, and S. Emori(2008): AGCM experiment of the effect of cumulus suppression on convection center formation over the Bay of Bengal, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16104, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009686.

3) Kosaka, Y. and H. Nakamura (2008): A comparative study of the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern based on reanalysis datasets SOLA, 4, 1, 9–12.

4) Nakamura, H., T. Sampe, A. Goto, W. Ohfuchi, and S.-P. Xie (2008): On the importance of midlatitude oceanic frontal zones for the mean state and dominant variability in the tropospheric circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 15, L15709, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034010.

5) Ninomiya, K., T. Suzuki, and T. Nishimura (2008): Differences between the intense precipitation associated with subsynoptic-scale Baiu frontal depression simulated by an AGCM and described in observational studies. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86, 563–573.

6) Kawatani, Y., K. Ninomiya and T. Tokioka (2008): The North Pacific subtropical high characterized separately for June, July, and August: zonal displacement associated with submonthly variability. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86, 4, 505–530.

7) Yokoi, S., Y. N. Takayabu, and J. C. L. Chan (2009): Tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific simulated in medium-resolution coupled general circulation models. Clim. Dyn., 33, 665–683, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0593-9.

8) Yokoi, S. and Y. N. Takayabu (2009): Multi-model projection of global warming impact on tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 525–538. doi:10.2151/jmsj.87.525.

9) Kosaka, Y., H. Nakamura, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto (2009): Analysis on the dynamics of a wave-like teleconnection pattern along the summertime asian jet based on a reanalysis dataset and climate model simulations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 3, 561–580.

10) Nishii, K., T. Miyasaka, Y. Kosaka, and H. Nakamura (2009): Reproducibility and future projection of the midwinter storm-track activity over the far east in the CMIP3 climate models in relation to the occurrence of the first spring storm (Haru-Ichiban) over Japan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 3, 581–588.

11) Kitoh, A. and T. Mukano (2009): Changes in daily and monthly surface air temperature variability by multi-model global warming experiments. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 513–524.

12) Ose, T. and O. Arakawa (2009): Characteristics of the CMIP3 models simulating realistic response of tropical western Pacific precipitation to Nino3 SST variability. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 807–819.

13) Sueyoshi, M. and T. Yasuda (2009): Reproducibility and future projection of the ocean first baroclinic Rossby radius based on the CMIP3 multi-model model dataset. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 821–827.

14) Oshima, K. and Y. Tanimoto (2009): An evaluation of reproducibility of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the CMIP3 simulations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 4, 755–770, doi:10.2151/jmsj.87.755.

15) Inoue, T. and H. Ueda (2009): Evaluation for the seasonal evolution of the summer monsoon over the Asian and western North Pacific sector in the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model experiments. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 539–560.

16) Kawase, H., T. Yoshikane, M. Hara, F. Kimura, T. Yasunari, B. Ailikun, H. Ueda, and T. Inoue (2009): Intermodel variability of future changes in the Baiu rainband estimated by the pseudo global warming downscaling method. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D24110, doi:10.1029/2009JD011803.