## Figure 1-2-45 Maintenance and Renewal Expenses and Aging of Social Infrastructure

years to increase at an accelerating pace.

As described in Section 1, fiscal condition of Japan is expected to become severer as the population declines and ages, but renewal expenses estimated at about 3.6 trillion yen for FY 2013 are expected to increase by about 30% to 50% to 4.6-5.5 trillion yen in 20 years' time (Figure 1-2-45).

The MLIT developed aging countermeasures, marking 2013 as the Starting Year of Infrastructure Maintenance Activity. In November of the same year, the Basic Plan for Life Extension of Infrastructure by government was formulated, and relevant ministries are developing action plans starting with the MLIT’s Action Plans for Life Extension of Infrastructure established in May 2014. Also, municipalities are formulating action plans for a period through FY 2016.

We need to ensure strategic maintenance so that we can balance securing the safety of existing social infrastructure and reduction and leveling of total costs through execution of the plans.

Estimated Costs of Maintenance/ management and renewal
Fiscal year	Estimated result
FY 2013	About 3.6 trillion yen
FY 2023 (In 10 years' time)	About 4.3-5.1 trillion yen
FY 2033 (In 20 years' time)	About 4.6-5.5 trillion yen
*1. The number of facilities falling in each of the 10 fields of social infrastructures (roads, flood control, sewer systems, ports and harbors, public housing, parks, coasts, airports, aids to navigation, governmental facilities) over which the MLIT has jurisdiction and that are managed by the state, local public entities Regional Road Public Corporations or Japan Water Agency, an incorporated administrative agency, has been checked by year of initial construction for estimation, with records of their maintenance/management, renewal, etc. taken into account.
*2. New construction and removal are not considered because they are difficult to estimate.
*3. Regarding functional improvements when renewing facilities, the assumption is to renew with similar functions (however, improvements to meet quake-resistance standards and the like are included).
*4. It does not include the land cost and compensation cost, natural disaster relief expenditure
*5. Since maintenance and renewal unit cost and renewal timing vary among social infrastructures for such reasons as differences in the degree of damage stemming from different location conditions of facilities, the estimations are shown as ranges.
Present Status of Aging Social Infrastructures
<<Percentage Ratios of Social Infrastructure over 50 Years Old>>
Highway bridges [About 400 thousand bridges (Note 1)(of 700 thousand bridges at least 2m long)]
Tunnel [About 10 thousand tunnels (Note 2)]
River management facilities (such as sluices) [About 10 thousand facilities (Note 3)]
Sewerage pipes [Total length: about 450 thousand km (Note 4)]
Harbor quays [About 5 thousand facilities (Note 5)(at least 4.5 m in water depth)]
Note 1) About 300,000 bridges whose year of construction is unknown have been excluded from the ratio calculations. Note 2) About 250 tunnels whose year of construction is unknown are excluded from the calculation of ratios. Note 3) Government-managed facilities only, including about 1,000 facilities whose year of construction is unknown. (Since the facilities developed within the last 30 years generally have a documented history, the facilities whose year of construction is unknown have been sorted as being 50 years or older.) Note 4) The figure includes approximately 15,000 km whose year of construction is unknown (since pipes laid within the past 30 years generally have records, pipes whose year of construction is unknown are treated as those aged 30 years or over and their length proportionally distributed in the ratio of construction by documented number of years elapsed.) Note 5) About 100 quay facilities whose year of construction is unknown are excluded from the calculation of ratios.

Source) MLIT

## 3 Relationships with Infrastructure and Productivity, moving toward a productivity revolution

The MLIT will make all-out efforts on productivity revolution, positioning 2016 as the Starting Year of Productivity Revolution. We examine the effects that land, infrastructure, transport and tourism administration, especially infrastructure, have on productivity and economic growth.

The effect of infrastructure development consists of flow and stock effects. Flow effect is the short-term effect of expanding the overall economy as public investment projects create economic activities including production, employment, and consumption. Stock effect is the medium- to long-term effect that continues as infrastructures are accumulated and function as social overhead capital, which includes various effects, such as productivity improvement. Up until now, the focus when discussing effects of public investment tended to be short-term flow effect; however, it is important to look at the inherent stock effect of infrastructures. Stock effects will be explained in more details in chapter 2.