$$ \begin{array}{rcl}3)IP&=&-81352.+1.4415*(0.17*SUM(DEL(YC,7),0,5))-5507.6*(0.20*SUM(GR(RDIS,4),0,4))\\&&(5.801)(11.344)\\&&+0.35522*(0.125*SUM(DEL(KIP.-1,9),0,7))\\&&(7.8677)\end{array} $$

$$ \begin{aligned}&4)IP=-8887.2+0.19536*(0.20*SUM(DEL(YC,9),0,5))-2814.1*(0.5*SUM(GR(RDIS,2),0,1))+0.60343*(DEL(KIP.-1,2))\\&\quad(1.942)(2.1171)(1.1383)(11.014)\\&\quad\\ &R2C=0.89184SE=1006.0DW=1.4007(1980.1-1984.4)\\ \end{aligned} $$

\[\begin{array}{r l}{5)\mathrm{~IP~}}&{=3450.6+0.12042\ast(\mathrm{~0.20*SUM\left(Y C,0,4\right)\;-\;185.48\ast\left(\;SUM\left(DEL\left(R D I S,1\right),0,4\right)\;+\;0.74020\ast\left(\;DEL\left(K I P.-1,1\right)\right)\;+\;0.74020\ast\left(R D I S,1\right)\;+\;0.74020\ast D I S\right)\;+\;0.74020\ast D I S\right)\;+\;0.74020\ast D I S\;\left(R D I S,1\right)\;+\;0.74020\ast D I S\;\left(R D I S,1\right)\;+\;0.74020\ast D I S\;\left(R D I S,1\right)\;+\;0.74020\ast D I S\;\left(R D I S,1\right)\;+\;0.74020\ast D I S\

$$ \begin{array}{rcl}2)X&=&7814.4+5.6159*(0.2*SUM(FXS,O,4))-29814.*(PX/(TL\_PXC\&JA*FXS))+0.31448*(TL\_YV\&JA)-1545.1*(D801)\\&&(1.384)(0.62931)\\\end{array} $$

$$ \begin{array}{r l r l r l r l}&{\mathrm{~3~})}&{\mathrm{~X~}=}&{-6147.3+29.384\ast(\mathrm{~}0.2\ast\mathrm{S U M}\left(\mathrm{F X S},0,4\right)\mathrm{)}-21228.\ast(\mathrm{~P X}/\left(\mathrm{T L\_{P} X C\&J A\ast F X S}\right))+0.33893\ast(\mathrm{~T L\_{Y} V\&J A~})}\\ &{}&{\mathrm{~(~}1.373\mathrm{)~}\mathrm{~(~}4.4576\mathrm{)~}}&{\mathrm{~(~}5.9809\mathrm{)~}}&{\mathrm{~(~}15.185\mathrm{)~}}&\\ \end{array} $$

$$ R2C=0.95959\quad SE=594.33\quad DW=1.2686\quad\left(\begin{array}{l}1975.1-1979.4\end{array}\right) $$

\[\begin{aligned}&4)\quad X\quad=\quad-6811.4\quad+\quad60.285\quad*\left(0.2*SUM\left(FXS,0,4\right)\right)\quad-\quad66593.\quad*\left(0.11*SUM\left(PX/\left(TL\_{P}XC\&JA*FXS\right),0,8\right)\right)\quad+\quad0.50993\quad*\left(TL\_{Y}V\&JA\right)\\&\quad\quad\quad\quad\left(0.5141\right)\quad\left(1.9707\right)\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\left(4.6005\right)\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\left(12.798\right)\\&

$$ \begin{array}{rcl}5)&&X\quad=\quad-25281.\quad+\quad27.654\quad*\left(0.2*\mathrm{SUM}\left(\mathrm{FXS},0,4\right)\right)\quad-13786.\quad*\left(\quad\mathrm{SUM}\left(\mathrm{DEL}\left(\mathrm{PX}/\left(\mathrm{TL\_{P}XC\&JA\^{*}FXS}\right),1\right),0,6\right)\right)\quad*0.41327\quad*\left(\quad\mathrm{TL\_{Y}V\&JA}\right)\\&&(4.854)\quad(2.8154)\quad(3.7217)\quad(14.603)\\&&-\quad926.22\quad*(\mathrm{~D}801)\quad\\&&(0.34236)\end{array} $$

$$ R2C=0.99798\qquad SE=21163.\qquad DW=0.76703\qquad\left(1975.1-1984.4\right) $$

$$ \begin{array}{c}5.----\quad IMPORTS\quad----\\1)\quad M\quad=6183.2+0.12403\quad*\left(GNP\right)+2013.9\quad*\left(PGNP/PM\right)\\\quad\left(1.603\right)\quad\left(11.208\right)\quad\left(1.2973\right)\\\\\quad R2C\quad=0.78988\quad SE\quad=1737.0\quad DW\quad=0.50067\quad\left(1975.1-1984.4\right)\\\end{array} $$

$$ \begin{array}{r l r l r l}{{2})}&{\texttt{M}}&{=}&{4589.8+0.13407\star(\texttt{GNP})+1401.7\star(\texttt{PGNP/PM})}\\ &{}&{(1.849)}&{(9.5584)}&{(0.86078)}\\ \end{array} $$

$$ R2C=0.99864\quad SE=23991.\quad DW=0.79889(1975.1-1984.4) $$

$$ \begin{array}{r l r l r l}{{3})}&{\texttt{M}}&{=}&{-9999.9+0.16196\star(\texttt{GNP})+8465.5\star(\texttt{0.11*SUM}(\texttt{PGNP/PM},0,8))}\\ &{}&{(\texttt{3.004})}&{(7.7182)}&{(2.9606)}\\ \end{array} $$

$$ R2C=0.90511\quad SE=1041.4\quad DW=0.69043\quad\left(\begin{array}{l}1975.1-1979.4\end{array}\right) $$

\[\begin{array}{r l}{4\text{μ}\text{M}}&{=8127.5+0.068888\text{μ}\text{GNP}\text{μ}+9025.0\text{μ}\text{GNP}\text{μ}\text{SUM}\left(\text{PGNP/PM},0,2\text{μ}\right)}\\ {}&{\left(0.8396\right)\text{μ}\text{GNP}\text{μ}\text{GNP}\text{μ}\text{GNP

$$ R2C=0.37680\qquad SE=1627.0\qquad DW=0.70195\left(1980.1-1984.4\right) $$

$$ \begin{array}{c}5)\quad M=-3801.3+0.13386*(GNP)+1153.0*(SUM(PGNP/PM,0,6))\ $ 1.545)(14.332)(5.3716)\\ \\ R2C=0.99922\quad SE=18162.\quad DW=0.88472\quad(1975.1-1984.4)\end{array} $$

（注）80年第1四半期にダミー変数が入っているが、ここではダミー変数を抜いて推定期間を1期短かくした。