$ a_{i} $ ……Almon lag :d = 1 , s.c = N , e.c = Y ,

$ b_{i} $ ……Almon lag :d = 1 , s.c = N , e.c = Y ,

$ a_{i} $ 0 0.02171 (3.28) 0.01628 (3.28) 2 0.01086 (3.28) 3 0.005428 (3.28) 4 0.05428 (3.28) 5 0.005428 (3.28) 6 0.005428 (3.28) 7 0.005428 (3.28) 8 0.005428 (3.28) 9 0.005428 (3.28) 10 0.005428 (3.28) 11 0.005428 (3.28) 12 0.005428 (3.28) 13 0.005428 (3.28) 14 0.005428 (3.28) 15 0.005428 (3.28) 16 0.005428 (3.28) 17 0.005428 (3.28) 18 0.005428 (3.28) 19 0.005428 (3.28) 20 0.005428 (3.28) 21 0.005428 (3.28) 22 0.005428 (3.28) 23 0.005428 (3.28) 24 0.005428 (3.28) 25 0.005428 (3.28) 26 0.005428 (3.28) 27 0.005428 (3.28) 28 0.005428 (3.28) 29 0.005428 (3.28) 30 0.005428 (3.28) 31 0.005428 (3.28) 32 0.005428 (3.28) 33 0.005428 (3.28) 34 0.005428 (3.28) 35 0.005428 (3.28) 36 0.005428 (3.28) 37 0.005428 (3.28) 38 0.005428 (3.28) 39 0.005428 (3.28) 40 0.005428 (3.28) 41 0.005428 (3.28) 42 0.005428 (3.28) 43 0.005428 (3.28) 44 0.005428 (3.28) 45 0.005428 (3.28) 46 0.005428 (3.28) 47 0.005428 (3.28) 48 0.005428 (3.28) 49 0.005428 (3.28) 50 0.005428 (3.28) 51 0.005428 (3.28) 52 0.005428 (3.28) 53 0.005428 (3.28) 54 0.005428 (3.28) 55 0.005428 (3.28) 56 0.005428 (3.28) 57 0.005428 (3.28) 58 0.005428 (3.28) 59 0.005428 (3.28) 60 0.005428 (3.28) 61 0.005428 (3.28) 62 0.005428 (3.28) 63 0.005428 (3.28) 64 0.005428 (3.28) 65 0.005428 (3.28) 66 0.005428 (3.28) 67 0.005428 (3.28) 68 0.005428 (3.28) 69 0.005428 (3.28) 70 0.005428 (3.28) 71 0.005428 (3.28) 72 0.005428 (3.28) 73 0.005428 (3.28) 74 0.005428 (3.28) 75 0.005428 (3.28) 76 0.005428 (3.28) 77 0.005428 (3.28) 78 0.005428 (3.28) 79 0.005428 (3.28) 80 0.005428 (3.28) 81 0.005428 (3.28) 82 0.005428 (3.28) 83 0.005428 (3.28) 84 0.005428 (3.28) 85 0.005428 (3.28) 86 0.005428 (3.28) 87 0.005428 (3.28) 88 0.005428 (3.28) 89 0.005428 (3.28) 90 0.005428 (3.28) 91 0.005428 (3.28) 92 0.005428 (3.28) 93 0.005428 (3.28) 94 0.005428 (3.28) 95 0.005428 (3.28) 96 0.005428 (3.28) 97 0.005428 (3.28) 98 0.005428 (3.28) 99 0.005428 (3.28)

(60) 積極介入

$$ \ln\left(\frac{G F X^{*}}{G F X_{-1}}\right)=-0.4440\pm\frac{2}{(4.82)}\alpha_{i}\ln\left(\frac{F X S}{F X X_{-1}}\right)_{-i}+0.3592\ln\left(\frac{B P M G}{G F X_{-1}}\right) $$

$$ \overline{R}^{3}=0.613\quad s=0.0633\quad D.W.=1.220 $$

$ a_{i} $ .....Shiller lag: $ d=1,\quad s.c=N,\quad e.c=Y,\quad k=1.0, $

$$ \begin{array}{r l r l r l}{a_{i}}&{\stackrel{0}{\underset{(-4.93)}{-1.759}}}&{-\stackrel{1}{\underset{(-4.87)}{0.8865}}}&{\stackrel{2}{\underset{(-0.18)}{-0.01139}}}&{\stackrel{\mathrm{S U M}}{-2.657}}\end{array} $$

(61) 先物為替レート（3ヶ月）

$$ \begin{aligned}61)\ 元彻為晉 \nabla- 下 (3 岁月 )\\\ln\left(\frac{FXF}{FXS}\right)&=\begin{aligned}-0.2146&-1.046ln\left(\frac{1+\frac{REUD}{400}}{1+\frac{RBRA}{400}}\right)-0.02844ln BPXG\\ (3.52)&(4.09)\end{aligned}\\&+0.4820ln BPMG+0.04195D_{73.IV}+0.03182D_{74.I}\\&\begin{aligned}(2.75)&(9.84)\end{aligned}\\&\begin{aligned}\overline{R}^{2}&=0.961\quad s=0.0033\quad D.W.=2.034\\ 推定期間 \quad&73:IIto78:I\end{aligned}\end{aligned} $$

## 2 定義式

〔民間支出ブロック〕

(1) 民間最終消費支出（名目）

$ CV = C \times \frac{PC}{100} $

(2) 民間住宅投資（名目）

$ IHPV=IHP\times\frac{PIH}{100} $

(3) 民間純住宅ストック

$ KHPNV=\frac{(IHPV-CCAH)}{4}+KHPNV_{-1} $

(4) 第二次產業固定資本除却

$ RFM = RRFM \times KFM_{-1} $

(5) 第二次産業粗資本ストック（実質）

$ KFM = \frac{(IFM - RFM)}{4} + KFM_{-1} $

(6) 非第二次產業固定資本除却

$ RFNM = RRFNM \times KFNM_{-1} $