Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
(Notes) 1 Volume of freight flowing between Kanto and regions (sum total of shipments from Kanto and arrivals at Kanto)

2 Regional categories

Hokkaido: Hokkaido Prefecture

Tohoku: Aomori Prefecture, Iwate Prefecture, Miyagi Prefecture, Fukushima Prefecture, Akita Prefecture, Yamagata Prefecture

Kanto: Ibaraki Prefecture, Tochigi Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture, Chiba Prefecture, Tokyo Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture

Chugoku: Tottori Prefecture, Shimane Prefecture, Okayama Prefecture, Yamaguchi Prefecture

Shikoku: Kagawa Prefecture, Ehime Prefecture, Tokushima Prefecture, Kochi Prefecture

Kyushu: Fukuoka Prefecture, Saga Prefecture, Nagasaki Prefecture, Kumamoto Prefecture, Oita Prefecture, Miyazaki Prefecture, Kagoshima Prefecture, Okinawa: Okinawa Prefecture (Year 2010 only)

Source) MLIT, "Nationwide Cargo Net Flow Survey"

Enhanced disaster preparedness and improved hygienic status are among the typical welfare effects.

As for disaster safety, water damages have been reduced steadily through the development, etc. of social infrastructures designed to control flooding from dams, riverbanks and so on (Figure 1-1-21). Although simple year-by-year comparisons are difficult to make because torrential rains, typhoons, etc. vary in their scale from year to year, the 10-year average of the flood damage-affected areas is found to have fallen in the 2000s to about one seventh of its level in the 1970s.

By prefecture, the scale of flood damages is found to have shrunk nationwide in the 2000s from the 1970s (Figure 1-1-22).

Next, let us look at an example of how the hygienic status has improved.

A growing stock of sewage systems, coupled with appropriate practice of their maintenance and management, has contributed greatly to the improvement of the water environment. A look at changes in the river BOD (river environmental
standard compliance rate $ ^{Note\ 8} $ and the sewage system coverage show that both have risen with time (Figure 1-1-23).

In addition, as the quality of public water improves, the estimated number of ayu (Japanese trout) running up Tama River flowing through Yamanashi, Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefectures and the catches of shijimi (Japanese freshwater clam) along the river have increased rapidly (Figure 1-1-24).

Source) Developed by the MLIT from "Public Water Quality Measurement Results" compiled by the Ministry of the Environment and from MLIT materials

Figure 1-1-24 Time-Related Changes in the Number of Ayu (Sweetfish) Running Up Tama River (Chofu Intake Weir)

The development of social infrastructures has contributed significantly to revitalization of the nation’s economic activity and betterment of the national life. Such contribution has depended solely on perfection of their maintenance, management and upgrade. Continued efforts directed at the maintenance, management and upgrade of these social infrastructures should be a key to their successful functioning.

## Section 2 Climate of the Economic Society Surrounding Social Infrastructures

While social infrastructures have evolved in the course of a long history as reviewed in the foregoing section, the economic social status surrounding them has been changing drastically as the nation slips into a society of dwindling population, experiences tight financial positions and faces evolving disaster and other risks associated with climate changes.

### 1. Slipping into a Society of Sheer Dwindling Population

Japan’s total population had yearly increased at an average rate of per annum since the Meiji Era but has now shifted into a period of long-term decline; it is predicted to revert to a size some 50 years ago (1965) in 2050 over a period of about 40 years from 2010 (Figure 1-2-1).
Figure 1-2-1 Long-Term Changes in Japan's Population

Source) Statistics for 2010 and earlier Developed by the MLIT from a “National Census” and “Basic Tallies of Population, etc. from 2010 National Census” by the MIC and “Long-Term Time Analyses of Population Distributions in the Japanese Archipelago” (1974) by the National Land Agency and statistics for 2015 and later from “Estimates of Japan’s Future Population (January 2012 Estimates)” by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (NISS).

To view population changes in structural terms, apart from scales, the ratio of dependent population (sum total of the young population (14 years of age or younger) and elderly population (65 years of age or older) divided by the productive population (15 years of age or older but younger than 64 years of age), with the quotient being multiplied by 100) was calculated. From 1960 to the first half of the 1970s, or a period of rapid economic growth that sparked the wholesale development of social infrastructures, the ratio of dependent population remained low but started soaring from the latter half of the 1990s. It is forecast to top 64.0 in 2015 and even reach 96.3 in 2060, when we brace for a society in which each worker supports one child or elderly individual.

After all, populations will continue to decline from now on a scale similar to that 50 years ago but in totally different age compositions (Figure 1-2-2).

Figure 1-2-2 Changes in Population Age Compositions

Source) Developed by the MLIT from a “National Census” and “Population Estimates” by the MIC and medium-level estimates in “Estimates of Japan’s Future Population (January 2012 Estimates)” by the NISS.
When looking at changes in the ratios of dependent population by region, the Kyushu region had the highest ratio of dependent population in 1970, each individual was supported by two. The Tokyo metropolitan area is predicted to have the lowest ratio of dependent population in 2040, in which each will be supported by 1.2 (Figure 1-2-3).

A look into the relationships between the municipal populations in 2010 and the anticipated rates of population rise/fall from 2010 to 2040 reveals that the less a municipality is populated, the higher its rate of population tends to get (Figure 1-2-4).

Further, in 63% of the total number of points (every $ 1 \, km^{2} $ ) nationwide, populations are predicted to slip more than 50% in 2050 from their 2010 levels, with about 20% of them being left uninhabited (Figure 1-2-5).
(Note) Excluding data from Fukushima Prefecture. Source) Developed by the MLIT from “Estimates of Japan’s Future Population (March 2013 Estimates) by the NISS.

Figure 1-2-5 Number of Points Classified by Rate of Population Rise/Fall

The upcoming phase of depopulation will be characterized by smaller generations working to support larger populations of elderly people. This trend will be more pronounced in rural cities holding smaller populations. It would be necessary to remember this fact in exploring the way our economic society should be.

## 2 Sagging Economy and Stiffening International Competition

As explained earlier, Japan’s population is forecast to dwindle in the future, exerting various effects of concern on our economic society. One of such concerns is the shrinking scale of the nation’s economy in pace with diminishing population.

Trends in Japan’s GDP suggest the growth rates in recent years have fallen from the 1980s (Figure 1-2-6). A look into the growth rates and shares of the nominal GDPs of member nations of the OECD also tells that our growth rate and share are on a downward trend (Figure 1-2-7).
Figure 1-2-6 Changes in Japan's GDP

2 Values from 1980 to 2000 are adjusted according to the ratio of the 2001 values based on the 2000 standard to those based on the 2005 standard. Source) Developed by the MLIT from "National Accounts" by the Cabinet Office.

Figure 1-2-7

Japan’s international competitiveness is also on the decline amid sluggish economic activity. The International Institute for Management Development (IMD) defines competitiveness in its own terms on the basis of indexes that represent economic standing, governmental efficiency and so on and releases a competitiveness ranking of countries and regions each year. Japan used to rank high in this list in the early 1990s in the world, but slipped down from the latter half of the 1990s to move sideways on the 20th rank level in recent years (Figure 1-2-8).
Summing up, there is no doubt that dwindling labor population has a dampening effect on the nation’s economic growth, but the way other contributing factors work should deserve equal notice in weighing the future course of our economic growth. The impact of shrinking labor population may be mitigated to some extent by pursuing a continuing program to promote the employment of women and elderly people and enhance individual workers’ capabilities, but keeping up economic growth should dictate more than that, building up a capital stock and boosting TFP $ ^{Note\ 11, Note\ 12} $ .

Namely, labor productivity needs to be boosted through higher productive efficiencies, technological innovations and so on. Social infrastructures would lead to higher productivity if they can demonstrate their utilities successfully. Making intelligent use of social infrastructures would be required to revitalize our flagging national economy.

## 3 Tightening Financial Constraints

Under the influence of declining tax revenues from sluggish economic activity and increased budgetary spending incurred by a growing population of elderly people with falling birthrates and so on, Japan's financial standing has aggravated at a rapid tempo with its long-term balance of the government debt reaching 812 trillion (Figure 1-2-11).

The ratio of the amount of a nation’s outstanding debt balances to its GDP provides a measure of the size of its debts, which is a key indicator of its financial soundness. By comparison, Japan remains at the lowest level, above that of countries with their financial crises surfacing, such as Greece and Portugal (Figure 1-2-12).
It has been pointed out to date that Japan has a higher ratio of the amount of public investment to its GDP than other advanced nations. Public investment, while on a rising trend in other advanced nations, has been continuously declining in Japan to a level on a par with member nations of the OECD as the nation has trimmed public investment since the beginning of the 2000s (Figure 1-2-13, Figure 1-2-14). To proceed with the development of social infrastructures of true need or with the proper maintenance, management and upgrade of social infrastructures that have been developed so far, ensuring the appropriate allocation of the public works-related expenditures required would be necessary.

Changes in General Governmental Public Fixed Capital Formation (relative to 1996 as 100)

(Notes) 1 All values indicated are nominal.

2 For the U.K. in 2005, the effects of the assumption of the assets and debts of British Nuclear Fuels Limited (BNFL) by the central government (approximately £1.4 billion) are excluded.

3 Data based on 08SNA used since July 2013 for the U.S. and data based on 93SNA for other nations.

Source) Developed by the MLIT from OECD Stat. Extracts "National Accounts" for countries other than Japan and from "Fiscal 2012 National Accounts (2005 basis, 93SNA)" (Authentic Information) compiled by the Cabinet Office for Japan.

International Comparisons of Outstanding Debt Balances (in relation to GDP)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from "World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013" compiled by the OECD.

Changes in the Ratio of Public Investment (Ig/GDP) in Major Advanced Nations

2 For the U.K. in 2005, the effects of the assumption of the assets and debts of British Nuclear Fuels Limited (BNFL) by the central government (approximately $ £1.4 $ billion) are excluded.

Source) Developed by the MLIT from OECD Stat. Extracts “National Accounts” for countries other than Japan and from “2012 National Economic Accounting (2005 basis, 93SNA)” (Authentic Information) compiled by the Cabinet Office for Japan.

## 4 Fragile National Land and Heightening Disaster Risks

Exploring directions for the nation’s social infrastructures, as well as its demographics and economic and financial status, should pay heed to characteristics of the national land as well.
## (1) National land conditions and climate

Japan sits on a narrow strip of land covering 2000 km from north to south, with steep mountains traversing its middle part longitudinally. A greater proportion of the land is dominated by mountains, with inhabitable plains being scattered in small areas. The nation’s ratio of the inhabitable land area to the total land area is 27%, by far lower than 60 to 80% in Europe (Figure 1-2-15).

Japan has about a two times higher rate of mean annual precipitation than the rest of the world, with rainfalls converging during on the nation’s rainy or typhoon season (Figure 1-2-16). Rivers are so short and steep that, once a heavy rain fails, it would pour from mountains into the sea at once to threaten floods and landslide disasters (Figure 1-2-17). In addition, because many cities are based in the plains lower than the water level of a river, they are exposed to the risks of extensive damages once to the river floods.
regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent by the end of this century, as global mean surface temperature increases." The annual mean temperature has been rising in Japan as well. Though the statistical period is too short to draw any clear conclusion on the relationship between the rising annual mean temperature and global warming, the number of occurrences of an hourly precipitation of 50 mm or more as observed by AMEDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System) is on the rise. This occurrence count is predicted to rise further towards the end of the 21st century in line with the progress of global warming ("Global Warming Prediction Information Volume 8" by the Japan Meteorological Agency), with the risks of occurrence of flood damages and landslide disasters mounting (Figure 1-2-21, Figure 1-2-22).

Japan's Annual Mean Temperature Deviations

Figure 1-2-22

Number of Annual Occurrences of an Hourly Precipitation of 50 mm or More (per 1,000 points)

Amid growing concerns over imminent megaquakes and increases in the frequency with which torrential rainfalls occur, urban areas have been made increasingly vulnerable to the effects of natural disasters, such as exposure to urban-specific damages or escalating damages, as more populations, assets, traffic and so on continue to pour into them. It has been pointed out that big cities rely on electricity, public transport services and more to such extent that they could give rise to a huge number of commuters unable to find ways back home once these facilities are disrupted in times of quakes, throwing the cities into turmoil because of their crowding. Further, the continuing proliferation of high-rise condominiums in the urban areas threatens major oscillations during long-period seismic motion, which could shut down elevators on upper floors to hamper evacuation or the convenience of daily living up until the elevators are restored to normal.

Usage of underground spaces, as for shopping malls and subways, has been more developed in the nation’s major cities than other nations, leaving them exposed to the risks of flood damages during heavy rainfalls. Large-scale floods hitting the Tokyo metropolitan area could give extensive damages to such underground spaces; e.g., ripping banks of Arakawa River are forecast to dip 17 subway routes and 97 stations, with a total extension of about 147 km (Figure 1-2-23).

With such characteristics of its land and harsh natural conditions, Japan is sought to build a high level of disaster preparedness facilities, such as advanced quake resistance and soft-ground improvement, into the social infrastructures

Figure 1-2-23

Source) Report by the Expert Committee on Large-Scale Flood Preparedness, Central Disaster Management Council, Cabinet Office.
it develops. In addition, bridges, tunnels and other structures command a greater proportion of the nation's networks of roads, railways and so on to address its steep topographical features than other nations. These social infrastructures are considered to cost more to maintain, manage and upgrade (Figure 1-2-24, Figure 1-2-25).

Figure 1-2-24

Comparisons of Bridge Beams in Japan and France

Source) MLIT

Hanshin Expressway bridge beams

Bridge beams of an access road at Charles de Gaulle International Airport

Figure 1-2-25 Comparisons of the Proportion of Structures by Country

Comparisons of the Proportions of Structures by Country
Japan	24.6%	National expressway mean (2005)
U.S.	7.0%	Interstate highway mean (2003)
U.K.	4.4%	Superhighway and general highway mean (2001, England)
France	2.6%	Directly managed expressway and highway mean (2005)
Germany	10.1%	Federal Autobahn mean (2005)

(Note) Proportion of structures = (Bridge beam length + Tunnel length)/Total length

Source) Infrastructure Development Institute

In the present context of an increasingly harsh climate surrounding social infrastructures, including dwindling populations and tight financial constraints, how to respond to the vulnerabilities of the national land summarized so far should be integral part of our process of formulating evolving concepts of maintenance, management and upgrade of social infrastructures.

##### Column Hurricane Sandy vs. U.S. Disaster Preparedness

On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy landed on the East Coast of the U.S., dealing major storm-surge damages to New York for the first time in 74 years since 1938. The first massive disaster ever to deliver destructive damages to a major city in an industrialized nation packed with an advanced integration of urban facilities, the storm-surge damages claimed a total of 8,000 billion yen in the States of New York and New Jersey – the second-largest economic loss incurred in the U.S. history of natural disasters.

Hurricane Sandy landed on the U.S. as a huge storm speeding at an average wind velocity of about 36 m/s, equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane, with its sphere of influence covering about 1400 km. Since its landing concurred with a period of high tide, it brought about serious flood damages associated with storm surges in urban areas in the City of New York, including Manhattan, and the State of New Jersey. Floods caused by storm surges infiltrated subway, road and railway tunnels and substations, closing public transport services. A substation located on East 13th street of Manhattan exploded as it was inundated by storm surges, blacking out the southern part of Manhattan. In addition, the New York Stock Exchange closed for two days to cancel transactions, adversely affecting the core of the nation's socioeconomic activities, including banking.

Figure 1-2-26 86th Street Station Flooded

Source) Metropolitan Transport Authority (MTA).

By comparison, Hurricane Sandy is said to have brought 2.7 times more blackout damages and 14 times more business impact to the key urban City of New York than Hurricane Katrina attacking on the rural City of New Orleans in the State of Louisiana in
## Section 3 Status of Maintenance and Management of Social Infrastructures

As the climate of the economic society surrounding social infrastructures varies, how to maintain and manage the social infrastructures that have been developed to date should be a task of key importance in plotting the futures of our nation. This section sheds light on the status of aging social infrastructures and their maintenance and management to help develop a preliminary understanding of the evolving tasks of their maintenance and management.

## Aging Social Infrastructures

In Japan, the infrastructures that have been developed since its period of rapid economic growth, including Metropolitan Expressway Route 1 built around the 1964 Tokyo Olympic Games, have been aging rapidly, suggesting an accelerating proportion of those facilities that have been aged for 50 years or older since initial construction for the 20 years to come (Figure 1-3-1).

Percentage Ratios of Social Infrastructures over 50 Years Old Figure 1-3-1

March 2013	March 2023	March 2033
Highway bridges [approx. 400 thousand bridges (1) (of the about 700 thousand bridges at least 2 m long)]	Approx. 18%	Approx. 43%	Approx. 67%
Tunnels [approx. 10 thousand tunnels (2)]	Approx.20%	Approx. 34%	Approx.50%
River management facilities (such as sluices) [approx. 10 thousand facilities (3)]	Approx. 25%	Approx. 43%	Approx. 64%
Sewerage pipes [total length: approx. 450 thousand km (4)]	Approx. 2%	Approx. 9%	Approx. 24%
Harbor quays [approx. 5 thousand facilities (5) (at least 4.5 m in water depth)]	Approx. 8%	Approx. 32%	Approx. 58%

To what extent aging of the nation’s infrastructures has progressed as a whole will be examined using a concept called “vintage $ ^{Note\ 13} $ .” Figure 1-3-3 presents preliminary calculations of the changes in the vintage of the infrastructures in eight sectors of national land and transportation based on data, such as that found in the Cabinet Office’s “Japan’s Social capital 2012.” In the early postwar period, when Japan had a limited accumulation of infrastructures, their vintage would decline (the average number of years that have elapsed on the infrastructures decreased) in line with the progress of new investment. When infrastructures were accumulated to some extent as Japan emerged from the period of rapid economic growth, their vintage turned to rise. Continuing cuts in public investment since the onset of the 2000s have resulted in a proportionate reduction in the percentage ratio of new social capital, with the result of growing vintage.
(Note) Calculated with regard to roads, ports and harbors, public rental housing, sewerage, urban parks, flood control and seashores in the following methods:

(1) The amount of investment made from 1885 to 1953 is determined by dividing the amounts of new investment in the respective fields in 1953 by the growth rate of total public fixed capital formation.

(2) It is assumed that the social capital stock in 1885 is 0 (accordingly, a vintage of 0 at the point of 1885) and the amount of investment in each year will last for the length of useful years (sudden death method) indicated in "Japan's Social Capital 2012."

(3) Mean of the number of elapsed years on the amount of investment made in a given year, weighted by the percentage ratio of the amount of investment to the stock. Source) Developed by the MLIT from the data on the vintage of infrastructures in various sectors from the Nomura Research Institute and from “Japan’s Social capital 2012,” Cabinet Office.

Under the circumstances, public concerns over the aging social infrastructures continue to mount. On December 2, 2012, ceiling boards fell down in the Sasago Tunnel on Chuo Expressway, with road structures falling under the normal conditions of usage, incurring human deaths and injuries in an unprecedented serious accident in Japan. A questionnaire survey conducted by the MLIT (hereinafter “Public Awareness Survey”) $ {}^{14} $ indicates that a growing population of people are aware of the problems of aging social infrastructures and are also anxious about the futures of such social infrastructures in the wake of this accident, attesting to the growing public interest in the aging of social infrastructures (Figure 1-3-4).

To what extent individual social infrastructures will age varies depending on where they are located, under what conditions they have been used and so on, they should generally get damaged progressively in pace with their length of service and repeated exposures to tough usage conditions, unless they are treated by major renovations and upgrades after their services commenced. A survey conducted by Metropolitan Expressway Co., Ltd., for example, confirms that the number of incidents of damages its facilities per kilometer grows in proportion with the length of service and cumulative traffic volumes (Figure 1-3-5).

Note 14 Conducted through the Internet from individuals nationwide in February 2014 (3,002 responses available). Survey findings used for comparison purposes are those of the surveys conducted on individuals nationwide through the Internet at the respective points of time.