Parameter	1980Q2-2014Q4 (full sample)	1980Q2-2001Q1	1980Q2-1998Q4
Mean	90% credible interval	Mean	90% credible interval	Mean	90% credible interval
ξp	0.560	[0.522, 0.598]	0.528	[0.488, 0.567]	0.520	[0.480, 0.560]
ξw	0.489	[0.449, 0.531]	0.489	[0.449, 0.530]	0.488	[0.447, 0.528]
κ	0.820	[0.748, 0.882]	0.790	[0.699, 0.868]	0.786	[0.685, 0.870]
κw	0.958	[0.938, 0.975]	0.946	[0.919, 0.969]	0.941	[0.910, 0.966]
αg	0.155	[0.061, 0.259]	0.146	[0.050, 0.262]	0.154	[0.052, 0.278]
α	0.386	[0.345, 0.428]	0.361	[0.313, 0.412]	0.354	[0.304, 0.406]
νg	-0.023	[-0.185, 0.143]	-0.021	[-0.183, 0.139]	-0.024	[-0.192, 0.143]
θ	0.732	[0.685, 0.776]	0.753	[0.698, 0.802]	0.754	[0.696, 0.807]
σH	3.151	[2.991, 3.310]	3.113	[2.954, 3.276]	3.102	[2.941, 3.273]
σa	0.789	[0.572, 1.038]	0.621	[0.401, 0.866]	0.563	[0.347, 0.809]
ρg,c	0.970	[0.958, 0.980]	0.961	[0.948, 0.973]	0.959	[0.945, 0.971]
ρg,i	0.958	[0.944, 0.970]	0.956	[0.942, 0.969]	0.956	[0.941, 0.969]
φg,c	0.289	[0.195, 0.400]	0.385	[0.270, 0.518]	0.412	[0.287, 0.556]
φg,i	0.496	[0.371, 0.632]	0.465	[0.330, 0.618]	0.467	[0.330, 0.625]
ρR	0.507	[0.432, 0.582]	0.495	[0.416, 0.572]	0.494	[0.415, 0.572]
φΠ,0	0.532	[0.456, 0.614]	0.527	[0.451, 0.609]	0.523	[0.447, 0.604]
φy	0.035	[0.018, 0.057]	0.042	[0.020, 0.073]	0.047	[0.021, 0.083]
Π	0.998	[0.992, 1.005]	0.998	[0.991, 1.005]	0.999	[0.992, 1.006]
μz+	1.002	[1.000, 1.003]	1.002	[1.000, 1.004]	1.002	[1.000, 1.004]
μΨ	0.999	[0.997, 1.000]	0.999	[0.998, 1.001]	0.999	[0.998, 1.001]
ρμz	0.390	[0.323, 0.459]	0.414	[0.343, 0.486]	0.425	[0.355, 0.499]
ρμΨ	0.496	[0.415, 0.578]	0.495	[0.412, 0.576]	0.492	[0.410, 0.574]
ρΠ	0.427	[0.359, 0.496]	0.457	[0.384, 0.528]	0.460	[0.383, 0.534]
ρε	0.958	[0.950, 0.965]	0.955	[0.947, 0.962]	0.954	[0.946, 0.962]
ρζc	0.955	[0.947, 0.963]	0.953	[0.945, 0.961]	0.953	[0.944, 0.961]
ρζH	0.944	[0.928, 0.958]	0.948	[0.932, 0.963]	0.949	[0.932, 0.963]
ρζi	0.804	[0.787, 0.819]	0.803	[0.786, 0.819]	0.802	[0.785, 0.819]
ρζg,i	0.801	[0.670, 0.913]	0.799	[0.666, 0.909]	0.803	[0.673, 0.910]
ρτc	0.517	[0.396, 0.637]	0.503	[0.382, 0.624]	0.505	[0.383, 0.628]
ρτk	0.807	[0.753, 0.857]	0.719	[0.640, 0.792]	0.705	[0.620, 0.783]
ρτh	0.615	[0.501, 0.722]	0.535	[0.411, 0.653]	0.527	[0.408, 0.646]
ρτ	0.824	[0.777, 0.868]	0.770	[0.703, 0.831]	0.763	[0.693, 0.826]
σμz	0.0036	[0.0028, 0.00438]	0.0054	[0.0041, 0.0071]	0.0060	[0.0045, 0.0079]
σμψ	0.0029	[0.0024, 0.00357]	0.0046	[0.0035, 0.0059]	0.0051	[0.0038, 0.0069]
σΠ	0.0084	[0.0060, 0.01146]	0.0119	[0.0080, 0.0170]	0.0128	[0.0086, 0.0186]
σε	0.0030	[0.0024, 0.00368]	0.0046	[0.0035, 0.0058]	0.0052	[0.0039, 0.0068]
σζc	0.0083	[0.0062, 0.01105]	0.0120	[0.0083, 0.0170]	0.0129	[0.0089, 0.0181]
σζH	0.0127	[0.0093, 0.01691]	0.0165	[0.0113, 0.0232]	0.0178	[0.0120, 0.0253]
σζi	0.0162	[0.0127, 0.02030]	0.0219	[0.0164, 0.0289]	0.0232	[0.0172, 0.0310]
σζg,i	0.3285	[0.0926, 0.85982]	0.5633	[0.0978, 2.3613]	0.4520	[0.0931, 1.4860]
στc	0.0026	[0.0021, 0.00315]	0.0041	[0.0031, 0.0053]	0.0046	[0.0035, 0.0059]
στk	0.0032	[0.0025, 0.00391]	0.0050	[0.0038, 0.0066]	0.0057	[0.0042, 0.0075]
στH	0.0027	[0.0022, 0.00325]	0.0041	[0.0032, 0.0053]	0.0046	[0.0035, 0.0060]
στ	0.0109	[0.0077, 0.01523]	0.0152	[0.0102, 0.0227]	0.0164	[0.0109, 0.0240]
σR	0.0036	[0.0029, 0.00448]	0.0054	[0.0041, 0.0070]	0.0059	[0.0044, 0.0077]
σg,c	0.0049	[0.0040, 0.00601]	0.0071	[0.0054, 0.0092]	0.0075	[0.0055, 0.0100]
σg,i	0.0030	[0.0024, 0.00370]	0.0046	[0.0035, 0.0059]	0.0050	[0.0038, 0.0066]

Table 6 Robustness Check