Fig. 5 illustrates the catching-up development of both synthetic fabric and crude steel production for the six Pacific countries, Japan, the United States, the two Asian NIEs, and the two ASEAN countries. Increasing trend of the production/consumption ratio was observed in all developing countries, which gives the evidence of the catching-up development of the two industries.

Synthetic fabric weaving was introduced, developed after cotton fabric weaving without much delay, and became a core of textile industry in these Asian countries. Taiwan began earlier and started export before 1970. Korea followed closely and reached Taiwan's level of export expansion by the mid-1970s. In Thailand, the production/consumption ratio exceeded unity in early 1970s and followed both Taiwan and Korea in export expansion, partly taking advantage of the earlier development of its cotton textile industry. For Indonesia, only a long-run trend is drawn due to the lack of consistent time series data of production and trade. But judging from ad hoc information, the development of Indonesian synthetic fabric production was delayed until the mid-1970s and exceeded unity only after 1980.

It is to be noted, however, in comparing production/consumption ratios among the four countries that substantial proportions of domestic consumption was input into the production of made-up textile products like clothing, bags, and other accessories. The proportion of indirect export is estimated to amount to 70 to 80 percent, which tended to increase the over-all production to consumption ratio for synthetic textile industries (not only fabrics but also made-up textiles) much higher. However, from Thailand to Indonesia the indirect export of synthetic fabric started in the 1980s and has reached around 15 percent only recently.

Japanese synthetic fabric production has already been declining at its mature phase. Japan's production/consumption ratio is still as high as 1.7 reflecting the competitive edge of its fiber production. The same ratio for cotton has already decreased below unity. The ratio for the United States was below unity (0.98 in 1977 and 0.96 in 1982) for synthetic fabric production, showing its already having entered the reverse import phase.

Steel industry development occurred in the mid-1970s in the Asian NIEs and ASEAN countries, lagging five to ten years behind the synthetic fabric production. Here production figures measure domestic production of crude steel, whereas consumption figures include finished steel products converted to a crude steel basis and the production/consumption ratio includes indirect export in the form of steel products. Korea quickly developed this industry and succeeded in reaching the export phase by 1980, whereas Taiwan remained below unity throughout the 1980s, partly being handicapped by the small size of its domestic market. Production/consumption ratios of both Thailand and Indonesia stayed below 0.3 until the mid-1980s, but has recently started to increase steadily.

On the other hand, both Japan and the United States have already entered the mature and reverse import stage respectively. Japanese steel industry developed rapidly in the 1950s and its export expanded in the 1960s. Its production reached a peak of around 100 million tons in 1972-73, got stagnated after two oil shocks, and has regained the peak recently. But its import of standardised steel products has increased recently and its production/consumption ratio has been on a decline. The US steel production also reached its peak of 137 million tons in 1973 but declined steadily to 81 million tons in 1987. Its production/consumption ratio has been below unity and on a decline since the early 1970s. Incidentally, EC's combined steel