proper empirical studies we require long time series of well-matched trade and production data for well-defined industries or commodity groups. In Japan we benefit from such a systematic groundwork as the Long-Term Economic Statistics (LTES) series, but in the other Asian countries we are seriously handicapped by the lack of basic statistics. My review will suggest a desirable direction of further statistical works covering these Asian countries over the past four decades of their industrial development. The CPC development model provides us with a rational pattern of transmission of industrial development among trading countries of different development stages. I will conclude with policy implications of the model for industrial adjustment cooperation among the East Asian countries.

## Catching-up Product Cycle : Basic Type

The development of a modern industry in late-starting countries typically starts from the import of a new product from advanced countries, followed by import-substituting production, and is further extended by exporting abroad. The sequence of the growth of import, production and export was first pointed out by Kaname Akamatsu (1943) in his statistical study of trade and production figures of a new modern industries in Japan before World War Two and was given by him a poetic expression “flying wild-geese” pattern (Ganko Keitai in Japanese) of industry development after the shape of a sequence of growth curves of import, production and export. He pointed out that it was a typical pattern of industry development in a newly industrializing country, then Japan.

This pattern has been empirically substantiated in Japanese major manufacturing industries and has been often cited in the studies of the Japan's economic growth by some of his followers (Kojima, 1958 and 1973, Shinohara, 1963, Baba and Tatemoto, 1965, and Yamazawa, 1972 and 1984). Akamatsu's idea was first translated into English in his article (Akamatsu, 1956) and also introduced to Western Europe by Sautter (1973). Kojima (1973) renamed the pattern as catching-up product cycle after its association with the “product cycle” model of Vernon (1964). The new name conveys more precisely the underlying mechanism of industry development and is adopted in this study.

CPC, the sequence of growth of import, production, and export, may at first appear to be self-evident and requiring no further investigation. But why has CPC started earlier in one industry than in the other? Why has one industry succeeded in import-substitution and export promotion more quickly than the other? Why has a third industry failed to follow CPC? These are not self-evident and should be given a theoretical explanation and its empirical verification. Under what conditions is the growth of an industry production preceded by its import and followed by its export and what factors determine the speed of import substitution and export expansion?

CPC was extended from the original form presented by Akamatsu so that it could be applied to new problems after World War Two. First many Japanese industries reached the export stage and we were more concerned with what stage would come next. Second international specialization has become confined not only to commodity trade but also taken such forms as technical transfer and foreign direct investment. Third the CPC has been spread to the East and Southeast Asian countries, enabling their rapid industrialization for the past two decades. How can the CPC model incorporate these recent changes? The