Figure 8 shows the CPC development of synthetic fabrics of Japan, South Korea and Thailand from the 1960s to the 1980s. Detailed statistics of China, Indonesia and the US for synthetic fabrics are not available.

Judging from figure 8, the import substitution of South Korea and Thailand were completed in 1972 and 1976, respectively. The Asian NIEs as a whole, also completed import substitution and were in the stage of rapid export expansion. Although Thailand entered the stage of 'export', its M/D ratio did not decline sufficiently, and the X/S ratio remained low, indicating that the country was in the early part of this stage. The X/S ratio in Japan continued to increase throughout the 1960s and 1970s. This means that Japan was in the 'export' stage.

## The Structure in the 1980s

In order to explain the production and trade structure in the 1980s, it is necessary to say that some factors shown in table 11 were interrelated and played major roles in the determination of the trade flow. The most influential factors are the economic boom in the US, the dollar appreciation and the MFA (Multi-Fiber Arrangement). In order to overcome the world recession caused by the second Oil Crisis, the US adopted a finance expansion policy, which brought about in economic boom and the dollar appreciation in the US. These were important promoting factors for the US, which had a huge domestic market.

The MFA was established in 1974, which stipulated that the export of a wide range of textile goods, such as cotton, synthetic products, etc. were to be restrained multilaterally by means of a qnota. In textile industry, there is the history of managed trade in the last thirty years.

The first restraining trade policy in textile industry in the postwar period goes back to the 1950s. In the 1950s the strong competitiveness of Japan, which was only one exporter in Asia in this period, was a menace to U.S. textile industry. It caused Japanese voluntary export restraint in cotton products toward the U.S. from 1957 to 1961. Afterward, in proportion to export growth in the other Asian countries, the U.S. enforced more rigid multilateral restraints.

Table 12 shows the managed trade of textile industry in the postwar period. The Short Term Arrangement was terminated but replaced by Long Term Arrangement and extended several times until 1973. In other words, managed trade of cotton products had been established by the end of the 1960s.

As export of synthetic and woolen products from the Asian countries increased in the 1970s, the U.S. proposed the arrangement of a wide range of textile products including woolen and synthetic goods. The MFA was established in 1974, following the LTA. At present, the main textile importer and exporter join this arrangement (about fifty countries). Although it nominally provides that “the basic objective shall be to achieve the expansion of trade, the reduction of barriers to such trade and the progressive liberalization of world trade in textile products...” (Article 1: 2), actually restrains textile export from exporting countries in order to protect domestic producers in importing countries. The U.S. and EC conclude bilateral arrangements based on the MFA with forty-one and twenty-seven countries and restrain their imports respectively. The managed trade of a wide range of textile products