Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
[18] Kruguman, Paul(1994), "The Myth of the Asia's Miracle", Foreign Affeares.

[19] Leontief, W. Wassily (1951), the Structure of American Economy, 1919-1939, An Empirical Application of Equilibrium Analysis, New York: Oxford University Press.

[20] Maddison, Angus(1987), "Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economics: Techniques of Quantitative Assessment", Journal of Economic Literature, 25(June), pp.649-698.

[21] Ohkawa, Kazushi and Henry Rosovsky (1973), Japanese Economic Growth, Stanford University Press.

[22] Patric, Hugh and Henry Rosovsky (1976), Asia's New Giant - How the Japanese Economy Works, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

[23] Ramsey, Frank (1928), "A Mathematical Theory of Saving", Economic Journal, 28 (December), pp.543-559.

[24] Rebelo, Sergio (1991), "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth", Journal of Political Economy, 90, 3, pp. 500-521.

[25] Romer, Paul M. (1986), "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth", Journal of Political Economy, vol.94, no.51, pp.1002-35.

[26] Romer, Paul M. (1989), "Capital Accumulation in the Theory of Long-Run Growth", in Robert J. Barro ed. Modern Business Cycle Theory, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, pp.51-127.

[27] Sollow, Robert M. (1956), "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 1, pp.65-94.

[28] Theil, Henri(1980), The System-Wide Approach to Micro-economics, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

[29] 新井益洋、石田孝造、桜本光、清水雅彦、「巨大都市の投入産出分析 - 東京一極集中と本社の地方移転効果 - 」、『イノベーション & I - O テクニーク』、5、1.

[30] 石田孝造、桜本光(1990)、「日米経済の構造的相互依存」『経済学季報』39、4.

[31] 岩井克人(1994)、「経済成長論」、岩井克人・伊藤元重 編『現代の経済理論』(東京大学出版会)所収、pp.265-324。

[32] 岩田規久男・石川経夫編(1988)、『日本経済研究』東京大学出版会.

[33] 江崎光男(1977)、『日本経済のモデル分析 - 国民経済計算からの接近』創文社.

[34] 小尾恵一郎(1969)、「臨界海核所得分布による勤労家計の労働供給の分析」、『三田学会雑誌』、62、1.

[35] 小尾恵一郎(1979)、「家計の労働供給の一般理論について」『三田学会雑誌』、72、6.

[36] 尾崎巌(1979)、「経済発展の構造分析(一)」、『三田学会雑誌』、72、6.

[37] 尾崎巌(1986)、「レオンテェフ動学体系と規模の経済性」『三田学会雑誌』、29、1.

[38] 黑坂佳久、浜田宏一(1984)、『マクロ経済学と日本経済』、日本評論社.
[39] 黑田昌裕(1984)、『実証経済学入門』、日本評論社.

[40] 黑田昌裕、河井啓希、新保一成(1989)、「日米産業部門別生産性の比較と国際競争力」『三田商学研究』32、1.

[41] 黑田昌裕、桜本光、河井啓希(1987)、「エネルギー価格変化と資源配分－一般均衡モデルによる租税政策効果－」『三田商学研究』30、3.

[42] 黑田昌裕、吉岡完治、清水雅彦(1887)、「経済成長：要因分析と多部門間波及」『日本経済のマクロ分析』（浜田宏一他編）、東京大学出版会,1987.

[43] 香西泰(1983)、『高度成長の時代』、日本評論社.

[44] 香西泰・土志田征一(1981)、『経済成長』、日本経済新聞社．

[45] 桜本光(1986)、「現代指数論の展望」『三田商学研究』、29、1.

[46] 桜本光(1992)、「技術進歩と経済成長」、『ESP』、4月。

[47] 桜本光、時子山ひろみ、「米国の鉄鋼反ダンピング課税は何をもたらすか」イノベーション& I O テクニーク 5、1.

[48] 佐藤隆三(1968)、『経済成長の理論』、勁草書房.

[49] 通產省(1989)、『1985 年日米国際産業連関表』.

[50] 通産省(1993)、『1985年日・米・EC・アジア国際産業連関表』.

[51] 通產省(1993)、『1990 年日米国際産業連関表』.

[52] 辻村江太郎(1977)、『経済政策論』、筑摩書房。

[53] 辻村江太郎、黒田昌裕(1974)、『日本経済の一般均衡分析』、筑摩書房。

[54] 時子山和彦(1997)、「消費者物価指数理論の展望」『経済研究』、29、1.

[55] 中島隆信(1991)、「近年の生産性変動要因分析」、『三田商学研究』、34、5.

[56] 中村隆英(1980)、『日本経済 - その成長と構造 -』、東京大学出版会。

[57] 南部鶴彦(1989)、「産業政策の有効性」、宇沢弘文編『日本経済：蓄積と成長の軌跡』、東京大学出版会.

[58] 日本銀行金融研究所(1991)、「新しい成長理論 (New growth Theory) について」研究資料(3) 研 1-4.

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## ワークショップにおけるコメント

本研究プロジェクトでは、研究報告を発表するにあたり、平成7年1月13日、清水雅彦氏（慶応義塾大学経済学部教授）、江崎光男氏（名古屋大学大学院国際開発研究科教授）をコメンテーターに迎えてワークショップを開催した。そこで出された主な質問・意見は以下の通りである（括弧内で示されているのは、それぞれの質問に対する、本プロジェクト側からの回答である）。

1. 通常三角化というと最も強い結合関係を残すような部門配列を行うものであるが、本研究では生産工程の序列に着目して部門の順位を確定することにこの三角化を用いているようであるが、この点どうであるのか。（本研究でも強い結合関係を意識し、三角化をおこない、対角線より右上の部分を無くすように努力したが、完全にはできなかった）

2．労働、資本のデータの細分化の処理はどのように行っているのか。（以前日米の生産性分析を行ったときは、部門が30部門であったため、労働、資本ともかなり細かい部分（性別、年齢別、学歴別、職種別等）までおりて集計した。本研究では、基本分類が1965-70年で、301部門、同様に1975-90年で、333部門であり、集計部門が50部門となっており、これに対応する労働、資本の細かいデータが存在せず、30部門に対応する細目の産業部門では、共通の賃金と単位資本費のデータを使用した。これらのデータを細分化することについては、その可能性はあるが、現段階では実証分析には用いられない）

3．今後、本研究をどう取り扱っていくことができるのか。(今後日米の国際競争力の要因分析、規制緩和等の効果の分析に応用することができる)

4．本研究ではサプライサイドのみに着目した分析になっているのではないか。ディマンドサイドにも着目しなければならないのではないか。（確かに本研究ではサプライサイドからのみの分析となっているが、我々は今回の研究は大型モデルの生産プロックに対応するものと考えており、今後これにデマンドサイドの条件を取り込んだクローズドモデルを作ることを目標としている。したがってこの点については今後の課題としたい。）

5．本研究では、特定産業部門のTFP上昇が産業間の相互依存関係を通じて、他産業部門のTFPに与える効果を計測するモデルが紹介されているが、これは非常に意義のあるものである。今回は、三角化を行うことにより、特定産業のTFPの波及効果を分析しているが、特定産業の生産性の要因分解や、価格面からの日米をはじめ、国際間の生産性分析に応用することができる非常に興味深いモデルである。
# Economic Growth and the Characteristics of

Technology in Japan

## 1 Objectives

The aim of this study is to examine empirically the characteristics of economic growth in Japan for the period from 1960 to 1990, from the perspective of technological progress and the spread of productivity growth across sectors. This study is motivated by two main reasons. Firstly, it is initiated by the recent development in the 'New Growth Theory' highlighting the endogenous growth factor. The second reason lies in the need to re-examine the results of past studies using economic observations of the Japanese economy after the oil crisis.

The first objective of this study is to calculate productivity growth by sector and its contributing factors using the input-output table. The second objective is to estimate the spillover effect of productivity growth from one sector to another through inter-sectoral dependency.

## 2 Main Characteristics of the Analysis

## a Triangularization of Sectors

By rearranging the sectors producing intermediate inputs in the input-output table topdown from products requiring a high degree of processing (final goods) to products requiring a low degree of processing (intermediate goods, in particular basic materials), it is found that final goods are seldom used as intermediate inputs in the production of other goods. On the other hand, while intermediate goods are frequently used as inputs in the production of other goods, they are less likely to be demanded as final goods. Hence, the sectoral spillover of productivity growth tends to lie in one direction. This implies that productivity growth in products requiring a high degree of processing will have no effect on products requiring a low degree of processing, whereas productivity growth in products requiring a low degree of processing will have an effect on products requiring a high degree of processing.

## b Interdependency Between Products

Products could be rearranged into several blocks via triangularization. A kind of block interdependency is found to exhibit through the use of intermediate inputs among the blocks. As shown in Table 5 on page 45, the 12 major product blocks could be further divided into 50 product blocks. Further, the formation of hierarchies through the structure of the intermediate goods was observed within the 12 major blocks and within the 50 smaller blocks (ordering among blocks). In addition, the ordering of products with a low degree of processing at the bottom and products with a high degree of processing at the top according to the ordering in triangularization is also observed within each block.

## c Measurement of the Rate of Technological Progress

By defining the rate of technological progress as the growth in total factor productivity (TFP), TFP of 50 sectors are measured for the period between 1960 and 1990.
## 3 Results

## a Growth Characteristics of the Japanese Economy

i. Capital input had the largest contribution to growth, with the rate of increase(7.6%) in capital input being greater than the rate of output increase(6.8%).

ii. Labour input had a 13% contribution to growth, and an annual growth rate of 1.7%. This could be broken down into the 1.0% annual growth of labour force in man-hour base and the 0.7% annual growth rate of improvement in labour quality.

iii. Technological progress recorded an average annual growth rate of 2.2%, and its contribution to growth was large at 33%. The rapid slowdown in the rate of technological progress after 1975 constituted one of the reasons for the slow economic growth.

## b Static Spillover Effects of Technological Progress and Productivity Growth

The rate of price increase of an output from a particular sector is measured by subtracting the rate of technological progress in that sector from the product of the share of material inputs and the rate of price increase in material inputs. For instance,

Rate of output price increase = Share of the respective material inputs

× Rate of price increase of the respective material inputs

+ Share of labour input $ \times $ Rate of wage increase

+ Share of capital input $ \times $ Rate of price increase in capital.

Therefore, by the above relationship, we could measure the effect of technological progress in one sector in reducing the price of output of another sector. This is termed the static spillover effect.

## c The Relationship Between Static Spillover Effects and Structural Changes

The static spillover effect has a close relationship with structural changes in the Japanese economy via the changes in resource allocation among the various systems of basic materials. In an historical perspective, an increasing amount of resources was allocated to sectors in which there was productivity growth in the sectors themselves, and to sectors which contributed to the price reduction in product sector requiring a high degree of processing via spillover obtained through the basic materials used. For the period from 1960 to 1985, large output increases were observed in sectors with productivity increase such as ore mining (h1) and secondary energy products (I). On the other hand, stagnation was observed in sectoral blocks belonging to basic material sectors such as agricultural products (h3), fisheries (h4), livestock products (h5) and materials for natural textiles (h6), in which there had been no productivity improvements. Hence, resources were allocated from sectors with low productivity to sectors with high productivity.

## d Dynamic Spillover Effects of Productivity Growth

The static spillover effect resulted in the price reduction in the final goods, in particular investment goods. While the price reduction in the investment goods resulted in price reduction of capital services through the static spillover effects, we termed the ultimate price reduction effect exerted on the other sectors as the dynamic spillover effects.
On the other hand, the employment coefficients had decreased rapidly in all sectors while labour productivity had increased. Although the capital coefficients had decreased in a few sectors, they had increased in most other sectors. This phenomenon was in particular distinguishing during the high growth era.

## e Spillover Effect of the Computer Sector (b5)

Sectors that had experienced continuous productivity growth were mainly found in the industrial machinery (B) block. In particular, the computer sector (b5) had recorded rapid productivity growth in recent years, and it was contributing both in static and dynamic terms to cost reduction in other sectors. The every 5-year annual productivity growth from 1960 to 1990 in the computer sector were 6.1817%, 2.1687%, 1.2742%, 6.0535%, 0.7910% and 4.5262% respectively. As for the static spillover effect, the 5-year average since 1960 were 0.0833%, 0.0431%, 0.0091%, 0.0922%, 0.0447% and 0.1658% respectively. The dynamic spillover effects for the same period were 0.2725%, 0.1352%, 0.0294%, 0.3105%, 0.1618%, 0.4526% respectively. For the period after 1985, differences in the static spillover effects and dynamic spillover effects had been enlarging, and the computer sector was playing an increasingly important role as a provider of investment good.
### Section 3. New Issues That Have Surfaced in Recent Years

In addition to the many problems stated in the previous section, various new problems have begun to occur in recent years at the turn of the century.

## [The prolonged stagnation of the Japanese economy and the increase in the financial deficit along with structural changes]

The stagnation after the collapse of the bubble economy accompanies changes in the nature of the Japanese economy. The increase in anxiety about the future of the nation due to employment uncertainty and worsening of the fiscal balance, etc. have become economic restraining factors.

In order to eradicate worries about a deflationary spiral and to carve out prospects for new growth in the 21st century, change in the Japanese-style social system is vital.

The situation demands prioritization concerning improvement of social capitalization, increases in efficiency, promotion of private sector investment, revitalization of the economy by means of regulation reform, etc.

### 30. (Change in level of dependence of government bonds/and issuance of government bonds)

The transportation sector took the lead over other sectors by pursuing regulation reform and bringing benefit to users by means of price reductions, etc. From now on, along with further reform of regulations, it will be necessary to address the problems that cannot be addressed by market principles only.

Note1: Compiled from Ministry of Finance data

Note2: Up to fiscal 1999, settlements of accounts are shown; fiscal 2000 is indicated with the revised budget. Fiscal 2001 shows the budget. The issuance of government bonds is the sum of construction government bonds and special government bonds. Fiscal 2000 includes extraordinary special public bonds.

### 31. (Consumer benefit of aviation policy)

Note 2: Using the regression analysis increased passenger demand (passenger kilometer) and decreased average freight are compared without taking into account freight deregulation(1996), duplication/triplication track standard deregulation, slot expansion of Haneda Airport and other measures. By this method, increased amount of consumer surplus in accordance with the contribution of the factor is estimated from fiscal year 1985 to 1999.
If we take a look at the distribution sector, although distribution cost has been falling steadily due to measures to begin deregulation, in order to maintain the international competitiveness of our country, it will be necessary to build an internationally competitive distribution market that includes cost reductions.

### 32. (Progression of sales/distribution cost ratio)

Note 1: Compiled from the data of Japan Logistics System Association.

Although the tourism industry is considered to be one of the leading industries in the 21st century, in Japan this position is at a lower level in comparison to other countries, and from now on it will be necessary to cultivate tourism as a leading industry by attracting foreign tourists to Japan and promoting domestic tourism.

### 33. (Dimension and employment of tourism in each country)

Note: Compiled from MLIT data

Note: Compiled from MLIT data

### 34. (Change in asset values)

Although land prices continue to fall after the collapse of the bubble economy, land prices that correspond to convenience and profitability have come into existence that process. To date, a large amount of underutilized or unused land still has been existing in urban areas. Promoting land liquidity, increasing the value of land usage and facilitating its effective/extensive use constitute one of the major challenges of administration of MLIT.
## [Development of globalization]

In recent years, the exchange of people and products across national borders has increased sharply, and the economic sector in particular shows aspects of an era of fierce competition. In the sphere of the administration of MLIT, in order to support international exchange and business activity across national borders it is absolutely indispensable to build a global transportation network.

### 35. Ratio of overseas production of the manufacturing industry

Note 1: Compiled from the Ministry of Finance “Statistics of companies and corporations” Note 2: Ratio of overseas production = sales of Japanese branches abroad / sales of Japanese corporations in Japan X 100

Note 3: Expectations for fiscal 2000

It is necessary to activate policy for industries in order to increase their international competitiveness, to tackle comprehensive policies for Urban Renaissance for increasing international competitiveness of large cities as economic centers, improving distribution infrastructure and advancing international exchange for improving Japan's national competitiveness.

### 36. (Factor ranking for enterprises upon selection of location/region)

Rank	Business base	Production base	Outsourcing base
1	Advanced infrastructure	Labor costs	Costs (other than labor cost)
2	Human resources	Advanced infrastructure	Advanced infrastructure
3	Distance from the market	Attraction of local market	Distance from the market
4	General infrastructure	Human resources	General infrastructure
5	Others	Costs (other than labor cost)	Human resources
6	Labor costs	Distance from the market	Attraction of local market
7	Attraction of local market	Others	Labor costs
8	Costs (other than labor cost)	General infrastructure

Note1: Compiled from World Bank “Infrastructure Strategies in East Asia”

Note: The meaning of “advanced infrastructure” is “traffic/communication system developed through information technology and provided by reform-oriented persons”

In addition, problems that became obvious with globalization and problems actualized by world regulations are to be solved actively between countries or among many countries in various fields.
## [Environmental problems aggravated on the global level]

Since the end of 20th century, global environmental problems have expanded and been aggravated. The MLIT faces the need to promote solutions to problems of energy saving in the housing and construction sector, which are significant parts of the inhabitation sector and to reduce the amount of $ CO_{2} $ emission caused by the transportation sector.

### 37. Changes of carbon dioxide emission by sector (carbon conversion)

Note 1: Compiled from the data of related Cabinet Meeting on earth

Note 2: Compiled based on the amount of carbon dioxide emission by power generation distributed across all the sectors of final demand

## [Increase of citizen participation and building on land in coexistence with nature]

In order to pass on a better environment to the next generation, it is important to center on principles such as sustainability, coexistence with nature, space creation, preservation of life and growth of nature's living things, etc, as well as to form the national land as a base of society which has lower burden on the environment and makes our society sustainable.

Concern about the nation’s environment is increasing, and from now on there will be an increasing need to develop a social infrastructure in cooperation with citizen’s groups that have to do with natural recreation.
## [Realizing of declining birth rates and the aging of society]

Especially henceforth, as the number of people over 75 years old who feel limitation of movement increases, much more effort needs to be exerted, starting from changing into a barrier-free society, for the creation of a life space where the elderly can have an active life.

### 38. (Obstacles for the elderly when going out of the house)

Note1: Compiled from Management and Coordination Agency “Opinion research on everyday life of the elderly” (July 1999) Note2: Percentage of respondents answered that in going out of the home, the item are obstacles; multi-answer

## [Development of IT revolution]

IT continues to bring major global changes into different spheres of everyday life from administration and enterprise. There are many fields where Japan is behind other countries in practical use of IT, and for the administration of MLIT as well it will be necessary to actively address the issue in related fields such as utilization of IT in public transportation, ITS, GIS, etc.

## [Rise of consciousness about safety and crisis management]

The Japanese “safety myth” started to disappear at the end of the 20th century, and Japan has suffered serious damage caused by natural disasters of which the scale exceeds contemporary human knowledge. The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in particular made people once again realize the importance of “safety assurance”. Also there are issues such as reinforcement of organizations and measures against barbaric acts, which had no examples in the past, like the Tokyo Metro sarin gas attack incident and serious accidents in the transportation system.

Furthermore, after the simultaneous terrorist attacks in the US, it is necessary to guarantee safety and reinforce policies against terrorism in public transportation and important facilities, and also to be equipped for electronic attack in aviation and railways and other means of transportation (cyber terrorism).

An incident with an suspicious ship has taken place, showing that Japan has been under threat of direct attack.

For MLIT's administration, it will be necessary to strengthen crisis management systems in order to take possible measures against new threats, and also to activate safety securement policies in the 21st century using lessons based on experience gained heretofore.
は次のように説明される。まず，外貨準備 残高変化率に関する推定結果

$$ \begin{array}{l}(\text{Ⅴ-1})\\\quad ln\left(G F X^{*}/G F X_{-1}\right)=2.1858-0.4142ln\left(F X S/F X S_{-1}\right)-0.4892ln\left(G F X_{-1}\right)\\\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad(2.97)\quad(2.36)\\\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\overline{R}^{2}=0.464\quad s=0.040\quad D.W.=1.43\\ 期间 \quad1973:I-1977:IV\end{array} $$

を求める。これは，実際の外貨準備の変動の中から，為替レートの過度の変動に低拡しようとする部分（右辺第2項）と，外貨準備残高を適正な水準に維持しようとする部分（同第3項）を表わしたものである。ちなみに， $ GFX^{*}=GFX_{-1} $ ， $ FXS=FXS_{-1} $ という定常状態を考えると， $ GFX=87.19 $ となり，長期的には約870億DMの外貨準備を保持しようとしていることになる。上式から得られる $ GFX^{*} $ の値を用いて， $ GFX^{*}-GFX_{-1} $ を含めて国際収支を均衡化させるような為替レートをくり返し計算によって求めるのである。

具体的な計算手順は第V-1図のフローチャートに示されている（天野〔1〕参照）。まず，為替レート制度を示すパラメータと調整パラメータが指示されなければならない。第V-1表は為替レート制度のパラメータの与え方を例示している。IEXSは，為替レートが内生的に与えられるか否かで1か0の値をとる。IPARは，為替平価ないしは中心レートが内生的に決定されるか否かに応じて1か0の値をとる。IRESは，外貨準備残高の意図せざる各期ごとの変動が為替レート変化のシグナルとなるか否かに応じて1または0の値をとる。さらに，BANDXは為替レートの許容される片側変動幅，BANDRは為替レートの調整を行う必要がないとみなされる外貨準備残高の許容される片側変動幅である。さらに二つの調整パラメータが与えられなければならない。すなわち，近似的な需給バランスの達成を示すための不均衡の水準を示すパラメータαと，需給のアンバランスに対して為替レートを調整する程度を示す計算上のパラメータβとである。

これらのパラメーターの値が与えられると，フローチャートに従って為替レート（FXS）が決定される。ただし，REXはくり返し計算上の為替レート，RPは外生的に与えられる場合の為替平価，PARは中心レート，BDUおよびBDLはそれぞれ為替レートの上限と下限，TRGTは外貨準備の許容変動額を示す。Bは外国為替の超過供給を示し，B＝経常収支＋長期資本収支＋民間短期資本収支（ $ GFX^{*}-GFX_{-1} $ ），で定義される。

西ドイツ・モデルにフレックス方式を適用するに際しては，われわれは1973年以後の管理変動制度の期間のみを考察した。選ばれたパラメーターの値は次の通りである。IEXS=1，IPAR=0，IRES=1，BANDX=0.12（1974：I～1975：III），0.03（1975：IV～1976：III），0.05（1976：IV～1977：IV），BANDR=0.05（1974：I～1975：III），0.08（1975：IV～1977：IV），α=20億マルク，β=0.0005（すなわち，10億マルク当り0.05%のレート調整を行なう）。

第V-1表 為替レートパラメータと為替レート制度の対応例

パラメータ一為替レート制度	IEXS	IPAR	IRES	BANDX	BANDR
固定レート	1	0	0	0.0075	0
ワイダー・バンド	1	0	0	0.0225	0
クローリング・ペッグ	1	1	1	0.0100	0.050
管理変動レート	1	1	1	0.0500	0.025
自由変動レート	1	0	1	1.0000	0.005
為替レート外生	0	-	-	-	-
西ドイツ・モデルの同次方程式体系としての整合性と予測力を検討するため，いくつかのシミュレーション・テスト（内挿テスト）を行なったので，その結果を報告する。

このモデルは，失業者数，超過準備，国際収支表上の諸収支項目，等のバランス項目をいくつか含んでいるので，シミュレーションの過程で誤差がそこに累積し易い。特に，諸テストの中でもとりわけ厳しい最終（ファイナル）テストでは，ラグ付内生変数に予測値が逐次代入されるので，期間が長くなるほど誤差が累積する傾向がでてくる。そこで，われわれは最終テストである程度満足しうる結果が得られることを，モデル作成上の最も重要な基準の一つとして作業を行なった。国際収支の多くの方程式が1973年第1四半期以降のデータで推計されているので，最終テストも1973年以降についてなされた。その場合にも，資本収支と為替レートを外生扱いにした場合と，内生化した場合の二通りのケースを考え，前者については1973：I-77：IV，後者については1974：I-77：IVの期間についてシミュレーションを行なった。

次に，初期値（イニシャル）テストもなされたが，これは初期時点の違いが景気変動や転換点の追跡力に与える影響を調べるものである。われわれの推定期間には，60年代末の戦後最大のブーム期，石油危機の激動期，その後の調整期と回復期というきまざまな景気局面が含まれており，こうした激しい経済環境の変化を計量経済モデルがどれだけ追跡できるかを検討することも重要な課題であろう。

## V I - 1 最終テストの結果

最終テストの結果は第VI－1表に平均平方誤差，平均絶対誤差率，フォン・ノイマン比について示されている。また，第VI－1図に，主な変数について推定値と実績値のグラフが掲げられている。

まず，資本収支と為替レートを外生扱いにした場合の結果を検討すると，次のような点が指摘できよう。

(1) 平均絶対誤差率でみると，バランス項目を除いてほとんど一ケタ内に納まっており，しかもほとんどが3％以内であるから，全体として一応満足できる結果である。

(2) 景気局面別にみると，石油危機後の激しい景気後退を比較的よくフォローしているが，1976 - 77年の景気回復は過小推定となっているものが多い。

(3) ブロック別にみると，物価や金融のブロックはきわめて良好である。実質支出や労働のブロックでは景気回復期に少し過小推定となっているし，国際収支ブロックはやや精度が落ちる。

次に，資本収支と為替レートを内生化した場合の結果を検討すると，次のような点が指摘できよう。

(1) 平均絶対誤差率でみると，バランス項目を除いて，ほぼ5％以内に納まっている。特に，為替レート（FXS，FXF）を5.4％程度の誤差率でフォローしているし，その複雑な直接・間接のフィードバック効果を考慮すれば，一応満足すべき結果といえよう。

(2) 景気局面のフォローについては，為替レート外生扱いの場合と同様な傾向があり，景気回復を過小推定するものが多い。

(3) プロック別にみると，為替レートの直接的フィードバック効果の強いところ，例えば，物価（特にWPI，PXG，PM）や金融プロック（特にRESF，RESB）のパフォーマンスが少し悪くなる。国際収支プロックの各バランス項目をフォローすることは難しいが，為替レート内生化によって，誤差率が特に大きく拡大することがないのは，為替レートが現実をかなりよくフォローしているためであろう。