Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
### 4. Regional banks

## (1) Mid- and long-term sustainability of business model

Since the Japanese population is predicted to shrink, the FSA monitored regional banks from the aspect of development of the mid- and long-term (5 to 10 years) sustainable business model.

— Due to low yield from loans, regional banks’ profitability of lending is declining overall. On the other hand, the influence the securities business of regional banks has on the entire management is increasing.

— As the interest rate is lowered, loans with relatively high yields tend to be repaid one after another to be replaced with new loans with lower interest rates. Assuming that this trend continues, the ordinary profits of about 20 percent of all the regional banks in the future (fiscal year ending March 2018) are calculated to be less than or half of what they are now (fiscal year ending March 2014).

— The extent of the decrease in yield from loans differs depending on banks. Since business models are different, some banks still maintain appropriate interest rates.

Trends of yield from loans for regional banks

Trends of average contract interest rates on loans and discounts for regional banks

Source: BOJ

Distribution of increase-decrease rate of ordinary profits for regional banks (estimated)

Note: Increase-decrease rate of estimated figures in 2018/3 to actual figures in 2014/3
— Amounts of lending and expenses have a strong correlation. Economies of scale can also be seen. On the other hand, regarding the relationship between amounts of lending and the profitability rates of lending, relatively small-sized banks have a distribution of profitability rates with greater spread.

— Some banks utilize their business strategies with economies of scale, while other banks utilize their business strategies to clarify the differences between each other using their business models without depending on business expansion.

Relationship between loans and expenses in regional banks

Note: As of the end of March 2015

Source: FSA

Relationship between loans and rate of interest income from loans in regional banks

Note: As of the end of March 2015

Rate of interest income from loans =

(interest income from loans – provision for allowance for credit losses – write-offs of loans to bankrupt borrowers) / loans

Source: FSA

Distribution of changes in yield from loans in regional banks (11/3-15/3)

Source: FSA
## (2) Evaluation of customers' business potential

The FSA reviewed how regional banks considered, provided and supported effective solutions based on an appropriate assessment of companies' business profiles and growth potential (evaluation of customers' business potential).

— Regarding the evaluation of customers’ business potential, some banks have good practices they have been carrying out throughout their organizations with a strong commitment of management, such as developing policies in line with business strategy, establishing control frameworks and sharing with branch employees.

(Example 1)A regional bank placed focus not on the achievement of target value but on business operations of each sales branch and established its performance evaluation system.The regional bank made a self-assessment that setting target values could sometimes lead to a business attitude which places importance on short-term profit, rather than providing financial services for customers and understanding customers' viewpoints.Some branches focused more on the evaluation of operational process (whether or not branch employees understand their customers' business, find customers' issues, or provide appropriate solutions). As a result, their target values were also achieved.Given that such initiatives were successfully achieved, the regional bank has decided to do the same thing for all branches.	(Example 2)Branch employees recognized the need for the evaluation of customers' business potential, and developed methods for evaluation of customers' business potential on their own.The regional bank set up a management policy such that they would continue to work together with major regional industries, and branch employees understood the necessity of the evaluation of customers' business potential in order to achieve the policy. They have developed methods for an evaluation of customers' business potential on their own, as seen below.1) Branch employees did specific interviews which focused on 100-1000 qualitative items when supporting the development of customers' business plan.2) Branch employees conducted simple interviews on qualitative items as part of its customers' communication toolset.3) Branch employees conducted qualitative analysis on an extensive number of relevant companies in major industries that could have a large influence on regional economies.
### 5. Roles of boards of directors

With the revised Companies Act and “Japan’s Corporate Governance Code” in mind, the FSA reviewed the composition of the boards of directors in financial institutions and nomination/performance of outside directors.

— Large financial institutions, mainly the three major bank groups, are taking initiatives to encourage their boards of directors to perform their roles properly.

• Ensure effective discussions by boards of directors regarding important management matters.

• Increase the number of outside directors and provide support for outside directors.

• Enhance effective discussion at the nominating committee where more than half of the members are outside directors (clarification of personnel requirements, and consideration/planning of successors of top management).

— It is important for regional banks to address the following issues in order to enhance their governance.

• Tone at the top management to listen carefully to and reflect outside directors' opinions.

• Selection of outside directors who have the expertise, experience and knowledge necessary to overcome management issues.

• Measures for selection of outside directors through the clarification of roles expected of outside directors or use of outside human networks in local regions where it is strongly understood that there are few personnel to be outside directors.
### 6. Issues of investment managers

The FSA reviewed governance, product origination, human resources development, etc., from the viewpoint of whether financial institutions engaged in the investment management business fulfilled their roles and responsibilities (i.e., fiduciary duty) adequately.

— Many Japanese investment managers were established as affiliated companies of sales companies providing financial services. Therefore, investment managers and such sales companies have strong relationships.

• Many CEOs, directors and audit committee members $ ^{*} $ are from affiliated sales companies.

• A large number of investment trusts were sold through affiliated sales companies.

• In the process of product origination, sales companies are engaged in research on customers’ needs and product design.

— The FSA has observed quite a few cases of provision of investment trusts which are easy for sales companies to sell and obtain high sales commissions.

— The FSA expects investment managers to ensure independence of their business from affiliated sales companies so as to develop financial products that are truly beneficial for their customers (i.e., appointment of professionals who are familiar with asset management business as members of management, as well as enhancement of checking functions by appointing independent outside directors, etc.).
### 7. Issues of sales of investment trusts

The FSA reviewed business objectives, performance assessment systems, sales promotion, and sales commission structures of financial institutions from the viewpoint of the development of solicitation and sales to support customers' asset building for the mid- and long-term.

— While many customers prefer “safety” in their investments, investment trusts with relatively high risk have been selling well. Some sales companies, which focused on consultative sales in order to recommend their customers to diversify their investment, cited balanced-type investment as a well-selling line.

— While many customers feel dissatisfaction with sales commissions, average sales commission rate has been increasing year by year due to increases in sales of investment trusts with complicated structures. It is necessary for sales companies to review once more whether they provide appropriate services proportional to their fees.

Investment trusts that have been selling well in Japan (based on net increase)

Investment strategy	Dividend	Net increase (100 million yen)	Maximum sales commission (tax included)
Global equities for certain sectors	Semiannually	1,049	3.24%
Equities for Asia/Oceania	Monthly	713	3.24%
Asia REIT	Monthly	568	3.78%
US REIT	Monthly	359	3.78%
Foreign equities (currency-selectionable)	Monthly	349	4.32%
Emerging market bonds	Monthly	332	3.24%
Domestic stocks (with options)	Monthly	310	3.24%
Emerging market equities	Monthly	273	3.24%
Diversified investment to global bonds/stocks	Annually	272	3.24%
Foreign REIT	Monthly	252	3.24%

Note 1: Net increase per month as of March 2015

Note 2: Investment trusts in this table are publicly offered equity investment trusts (excluding ETFs) that exclude new investment trusts offered for the first time in March

Trends of sales commission rates in Japan (weighted average balance)

Note: Investment trusts in this graph are publicly offered equity investment trusts (excluding ETFs)

Source: QUICK
### 8. Effective cyber security measures

Threats in cyberspace have become borderless and rapidly more complex. The FSA reviewed measures for cyber security taken by financial institutions.

— The three major banks have arranged a set of measures for cyber security, taking into account their research on G-SIFIs’ proactive approach. It is important to enhance the effectiveness of cyber security measures not only as an individual bank but also as an entire group.

— For other financial institutions, it is significant to improve the countermeasures against cyber attacks as well as the sharing of information.

— More specifically, administration according to the criticality of information, Defense-in-Depth (i.e., combination of information security at various stages throughout not only entry but also middle and exit of monitoring), and training of initial response for cyber attacks are important.

— Since it is becoming harder to prevent cyber attacks, it is necessary to continue addressing the issue under management’s proactive initiatives to develop cyber attack countermeasures.
## Definitions of categories of the financial institutions used in the highlights

• Deposit-Taking Financial Institutions: Domestic banks, other banks, Citibank Japan, Shinhan Bank Japan, Shinkin Banks, Credit Cooperatives

• Domestic Banks: City Banks, Regional Banks (First-tier), Second-tier Regional Banks, Trust Banks

• City Banks: Mizuho Bank, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Resona Bank, Saitama Resona Bank

• Major Banks: Mizuho Bank, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Resona Bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking, Mizuho Trust and Banking, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Shinsei Bank, Aozora Bank

• Three Major Bank Groups: Mizuho Financial Group (MHFG), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG)

• G-SIFIs: G-SIBs (Global Systemically Important Banks) excluding Three Major Bank Groups

• Regional Banks: Regional Banks (First-tier), Second-tier Regional Banks, Saitama Resona Bank
## Part II: Trends in MLIT Administration

## Chapter 1: A Shift in Focus to Result-Oriented Policy Framework

## [Reform of infrastructure development planning]

## ☐ The Priority Plan for Social Infrastructure Development

In April 2003, the Priority Plan Act for Social Infrastructure Development came into force. This law called for fundamental reform and integration of all the nine existing long-term plans for sectoral infrastructure development. Based on the law, the Cabinet endorsed in October 2003 the Priority Plan for Social Infrastructure Development for FY2003-2007.

The five-year priority plan has set out specific goals that have been established after taking account of public input. It has also called for closer coordination between sectoral programs and established cross-sectoral reform policy.

## [Result-oriented policy initiative]

## ○ Reform of policy framework

Under the priority plan, MLIT monitors the plan-do-see-cycle of its policies and assesses their performance in light of policy goals—whether it satisfies the expectations of the public. Based on such assessment, the ministry continues to implement necessary policies in an effective and efficient manner.

## ○Promoting policy assessment

MLIT promotes policy assessment to ensure public service delivery that is result-oriented, user-oriented, and well-balanced. Under the priority plan, the ministry conducts ex-post assessment regarding policy objectives and indicators every year as a follow-up measure.

## ○Strict implementation of project evaluation

To further improve both the efficiency of public works projects and the transparency of their implementation processes, MLIT in FY2003 started to implement full-fledged “ex-post evaluation” after the completion of each project. This completed the project evaluation framework including ex-ante and ex-post evaluation.

## ○Promoting reform of the cost structure of public works projects

MLIT is reviewing the whole processes of public works projects in terms of cost reduction under the ministry’s “program of cost structural reform on public works projects.” This review is aimed at speeding up the project processes, optimizing the all processes from planning to maintenance, including procurement, in addition to present cost reduction policies. MLIT aims to reduce the costs by 15% compared with the FY2002 levels during the five-year period starting FY2003.

## A conceptual rendering of cost structural reform on public works projects

○Winning the understanding and support of local communities

In implementing infrastructure development, it is important to ensure transparency and fairness and win the understanding and support of local communities. To that end, MLIT has formulated the “guidelines on public
図 N−10 道路事業補正後予算のレラティブ・パワー(RP)の推移

両者が結び付いて可成り大規模な圧力が醸成されたことを示している。つまり，正の圧力は特に外圧と結び付いた場合，それが政治的な問題として扱われる可能性が高まり予算編成の際に特別な力として作用するようになるのである。

二）当初予算において，道路需要の代理変数（ $ X_{1} $ ）のラグはやや有意となっている。このことは，自動車保有台数増加量の変化のみならず加速度も，要求側のレラティブパワーを高めることを示している。

以上，道路事業予算の実証分析から得られた結果を基に種々の考察をしたが，次の点には充分注意しておく必要がある。つまり，データポイントは年度毎の値であるために，20及び19個しかなく，自由度が可成り低い点，及び，外生変数の中には互いに相関のあるものがあり，係数推定に若干不安定性が存在した点である。

$$ \begin{aligned}&V\quad 一般会計予算の動学的意思決定過程 \\&\S1 フレーム \cdot ワーク \end{aligned} $$

われわれは，さきに道路投資の動学的意思決定の構造を記述したモデルを作成した。ここでは，道路投資モデルのフレーム・ワークを拡張し，より広い財政的意思決定の分析に適用することを試た。対象として，道路投資をも含めた一般会計予算を選び，その総額の決定，経費別予算額決定の構造を把えようとするものである。

基本的なフレームワークは，予算の動学的意思決定という点で道路予算と同一であると想定し，経費毎の特殊事情を勘案して次のような修正を施した。

イ） 歳出総額に拘わるレラティブ・パワー

歳出合計については，明示的な要求官庁を特定化することはできない。していえば，歳出合計を拡張させようとする政治的諸力，内外経済情勢との関係から規模を決定しようとする力を要求側と想定し，対するに財政節度を守ろうとする力を査定側と想定することが可能と考えられる。

そこで，この両者のレラティブ・パワーをRPと定義する。

したがって，道路モデルで，要求側（需要）
道路投資の動学的意思決定過程の分析

図 V−1 蔵出総額に関する レラティブ・パワー

表V-1 歳 出 規 模 の 決 定

(億円, %)

年度	自然增收	增减税	敲出增减	国债增减
金额	对前年度当初予算	金额	对前年度当初予算	金额	对前年度当初予算	金额	对前年度当初予算
34	1,401	10.68	133	1.01	1,071	8.16	0	0.0
35	2,082	14.67	-58	-0.41	1,504	10.60	0	0.0
36	4,135	26.34	648	4.13	3,831	24.41	0	0.0
37	4,989	25.55	987	5.05	4,741	24.28	0	0.0
38	3,356	13.83	499	2.06	4,232	17.44	0	0.0
39	6,756	23.71	836	2.93	4,054	14.22	0	0.0
40	4,903	15.06	813	2.50	4,026	12.37	0	0.0
41	1,995	5.45	2,090	5.71	6,562	17.94	7,300	19.96
42	6,502	15.07	803	1.86	6,367	14.76	700	1.62
43	10,330	20.86	550	1.11	8,676	17.52	-1,600	-3.23
44	12,457	21.41	1,503	2.58	9,210	15.83	-1,500	-2.58
45	14,513	21.53	1,768	2.62	12,102	17.96	-600	-0.89
46	15,306	19.25	1,387	1.74	14,646	18.42	0	0.0
47	5,247	5.57	-48	-0.05	20,533	21.81	15,200	16.15
48	26,418	23.04	3,355	2.93	28,164	24.56	3,900	3.40
49	37,616	26.33	10,020	7.01	28,154	19.71	-1,800	-1.26
50	43,121	25.22	2,050	1.20	41,894	24.50	-1,600	-0.94
51	-17,882	-8.40	-1,890	-0.89	30,072	14.13	52,750	24.78
52	31,575	13.00	1,850	0.76	42,183	17.36	12,050	4.96
53	29,849	10.47	-3,488	-1.22	57,807	20.27	25,050	8.79

と，その他の諸力（外圧，内圧）を区別したのに対し，ここではその他の諸力，およびそれを代弁する官庁を要求側とみなすこととした。

すなわち，歳出規模に関する意思決定を，30年代（均衡財政主義）については，想定される税収増加見込みからどれだけを増減税にし，どれだけを歳出増加に振り向けるか，40年代（国債発行後）については増減税と国債発行額増減と歳出増加の間にどのように配分するかの決定として把え，その決定に際しての諸力の関係を
明確にしようとする（表V-1）。

## ロ） 経費別のレラティブ・パワー

一般会計の各経費は，道路等若干の例外を除いては，特定財源を持たず，一般財源によってまかなわれる。従って，道路モデルにおけるように経費別財源見通しと，歳出予算との比と攪乱項によってRPを定義することはできない。そこでここでは出力方程式を次式で定式化することとした。

$$ Y_{it}=RP_{it}\cdot\left(Y_{it-1}/YE_{t-1}\right)\cdot T_{t}^{e}\cdot e^{vit} $$

ここで $ Y_{i} $ ：経費別予算額

YE：一般会計歳出予算総額

$ T^{e} $ : 一般会計税収見積り

したがって，誘導形は次のようになる。

$$ \begin{aligned}\log Y_{it}=&\log(Y_{it}/Y\mathbb{E}_{t-1})+\log T_{t}^{e}\\&+\sum_{i=1}^{n}\frac{\beta_{i}}{1-\alpha L}\log X_{i}+\frac{1}{1-\alpha L}w_{it}+v_{it}\end{aligned} $$

ここでのレラティブ・パワーは，税収見込みに対して前年度のシェアを上回るか下回るかによって規定されている。

## § 2 実証分析

1）データと手法

イ）データ

一般会計予算のデータとしては主要経費別分類の当初予算および補正後予算を用い,若干の

表V - 2 經費分類

分析对象經費	主 要 經 費 別
一般会计歲出合計	一般会计歲出合計
公共事業費	公共事業関係費
公共事業予備費
社会保障費	社会保障関係費
恩給関係費
文教関係費	文教及び科学振興費
防衛費	防 衛 費

表V - 3 経費別の動向（当初予算）

(%)

年度	歲出計	公共事業費	社会保障費	文教関係費	防衛費	その他
増加率	構成比	増加率	構成比	増加率	構成比	増加率	構成比	増加率	構成比
34	8.16	16.53	25.93	19.07	14.56	12.84	10.09	10.83	5.13	40.73
35	10.60	18.64	24.68	19.85	15.11	13.09	12.79	9.85	0.59	38.57
36	24.41	18.63	24.38	19.39	21.50	13.13	24.77	9.11	15.01	39.74
37	24.28	19.12	27.57	17.41	11.62	12.58	19.07	8.48	15.75	42.40
38	17.44	18.93	16.25	17.41	17.42	13.04	21.75	8.46	17.20	42.15
39	14.22	19.52	17.81	17.87	17.25	12.71	11.27	8.45	14.05	41.45
40	12.37	20.11	15.73	18.69	17.48	13.00	15.01	8.24	9.56	39.96
41	17.94	20.31	19.11	18.85	19.01	12.59	14.21	7.90	13.04	40.35
42	14.76	20.13	13.72	18.93	15.22	12.62	14.91	7.69	11.80	40.64
43	17.52	18.32	6.98	18.38	14.13	12.07	12.46	7.25	10.82	43.97
44	15.83	17.84	12.79	18.02	13.56	11.96	14.72	7.18	14.62	45.00
45	17.96	17.73	17.27	18.11	18.54	11.65	14.89	7.16	17.71	45.35
46	18.42	17.69	18.14	17.85	16.68	11.46	16.54	7.13	17.81	45.88
47	21.81	18.73	28.99	17.56	19.87	11.37	20.90	6.98	19.27	45.35
48	24.56	19.89	32.22	18.11	28.45	10.99	20.38	6.55	16.91	44.46
49	19.71	16.61	0.0	20.32	34.34	11.48	25.04	6.39	16.84	45.19
50	24.50	13.67	2.42	22.00	34.75	12.40	34.47	6.23	21.44	45.70
51	14.13	15.14	26.39	23.85	23.76	12.47	14.74	6.22	13.95	42.32
52	17.36	15.01	16.42	24.04	18.27	12.03	13.23	5.93	11.78	42.99
53	20.27	16.47	31.98	23.65	18.33	11.23	12.29	5.54	12.45	43.10

注）増加率は前年度当初予算に対するもの。
## 道路投資の動学的意思決定過程の分析

表V - 4 变 数 一 覧

当 初	補 正 後
E.	一般会計歳出総額当初予算	一般会計歳出総額補正後予算
T	税制改正前普通歳入当初見込	補正後普通歳入
D43	財政硬直化キャンペーン・ダミー	同 左
Doil	43年度=1
その他=0	オイル・ショック・ダミー
オイル・ショック・ダミー	オイル・ショック・ダミー
49,50年度=1
その他=0	48,49年度=1
その他=0
EXP	外圧
外 貨 準 備 增 減
ハイ・パワード・マネー	同左 当年度7~9月期平均
前年度10~12月期
STA	内圧
前年度名目GNP成長率実績見込み
前々年度以前5年間の平均成長率	前年度名目GNP成長率
前々年度以前年間の平均成長率
Ds	51年度の税収の異常変動ダミー	50年度の税収異常ダミー
GN5	需要
前年度以前5年間の名目GNP平均成長率	50年度=1
その他=0
同左

組替えを行い，表V-2の経費について分析した。

表V - 2以外の経費のうち，国債費，地方交付税交付金については，ほとんど，制度的に決定される経費であるため，その他の経費については要求側が明確に特定化しにくいため，分析の対象とはしなかった。

対象期間はデータの制約等から34年度～53年度とした。対象期間内の各経費の動向は表V-3の通りである。

## 口）手法

§ 1で求められた誘導形を推定するにあたっては道路モデルの場合と同様，Davidon Fletcher Powell法を用いた最尤推定を行っている。

## (２) モデル

推定したモデルの基本形は次式で表わされ，結果ほ表V - 6 ~ 表V - 9の通りである。

## イ） 歳出総額

$$ \begin{array}{c}\log(E_{t}/T_{t})=a_{0}+a_{1}(\log(E_{t}/T_{t})_{-1})\\+a_{2}D43-a_{3}Doil\end{array} $$

$$ \begin{aligned}&+a_{4}( 外压 )+a_{5}( 内压 )\\&+a_{6}(Ds)+a_{7}( 需要 )\end{aligned} $$

当初予算と補正後予算について用いた変数は表V-4の通りである。

ほぼ，道路モデルと同じ変数を用いているが前述したように歳出合計に対する需要というのは明確に特定化できない。そこで一般的な財政需要をあらわすものとして，GNPの趨勢成長率を用いた式を試ることとした。

また，50年度，51年度のオイル・ショック後の景気後退はかつてないほど深刻であり，その税収への影響も大きく，通常のルールで説明することが困難であると考え，これを説明するダミー変数（Ds）を導入している。

## 口） 経費別モデル

$$ \begin{aligned}&\log Y_{it}/Y_{it-1}-\log YT_{t}^{e}/YE_{t-1}\\&=a_{0}+b_{1}(\log Y_{it}/Y_{it-1}-\log YT_{t}^{e}/YE_{t-1})_{t-1}\\&\quad+b_{2}D43+b_{3}Doil+b_{4}( 外压 )\\&\quad+b_{5}( 内压 )+b_{6}(Ds)+b_{7}( 需要 )\end{aligned} $$

## 但し，i=1 公共事業費
## 2 社会保障費

3 文教及び科学技術費

## 4 防衛関係費

## ア）公共事業費

この経費の約3割が，道路整備費であり，道路モデルの対象とした道路事業費のうち，国費がこれに対応する。したがって道路投資とほぼ同一のフレーム・ワークで論じることができる。

表V - 5 公共事業費の構成

(%)

項目	35	40	45	50	53
治山治水対策	20.3	16.2	16.8	15.5	16.5
道路整備	30.4	42.6	41.2	32.9	30.3
港湾漁港空港	7.0	7.4	8.3	8.2	7.7
住宅対策	4.4	4.9	6.8	10.1	10.8
下水道・環境衛生	0.9	1.5	4.5	9.7	13.4
農業基盤整備	13.3	12.4	13.4	12.4	13.4
林道・工業用水	3.3	4.4	2.5	2.5	2.7
調整費等	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.2
災害対策	19.8	9.4	5.7	8.3	4.9
合計	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

## 注）当初予算

ただし，道路投資以外に港湾整備，農業基盤整備，住宅対策，環境衛生対策等を含んでいる（表V-5）ため，需要を特定化することは困難である。

そこで,社会資本整備に対する需要として,名目 GNPの趨勢的变化を代理変数として用いることとした。

## イ）社会保障費

需要項として名目 GNPの趨勢成長率の他に，物価スライドを考慮し物価上昇率，賃金上昇率（W）をも考慮した。

## ウ）文教関係費

この経費のかなりの部分(53年度でほぼ半分)は義務教育費国庫負担金であり，これはその性格上，ほとんど人件費で占められている。人件費の単価は人事院勧告によって外部から決定されること，定員については40年代に入っては総定員法を制定するなどその縮減が図られておりほとんど増加していないことから，需要変数として民間賃金上昇率を試ている。

## 工）防衛関係費

この経費についても明確に需要を特定化することはできないが，防衛予算論議において通常GNP比を基準としていることが多いことから名目GNPの趨勢成長率を用いている。

## § 3 結果の解釈

1）道路モデルの主要結果は以下の通りであった。

## ア）外圧，内圧が有意

イ）硬直化キャンペーン・ダミー，オイル・ショック・ダミーが有意。また補正後においては有意性が低下する。

ウ）自己回帰項のパラメータは当初予算より補正後予算において大きくなっている。

エ）需要項が有意であり，また，当初より補正後予算においてきいている。

オ）定数項が補正後予算においてより有意となる傾向がある。

力）外圧は補正後予算においてより大きい。

この結果は，われわれの設定した道路の官僚政治モデルが現実の意思決定過程をかなりうまく把握できたことをあらわすと同時に次のような解釈を可能にする。

当初予算と補正後予算を比較すると当初予算の決定の方が各種の介入の相互作用による決定という面が強く，補正後予算においては，より増分主義的（内部官僚的）決定がなされていることがうかがわれる。（（イ）～（オ））ただし，外圧に対しては補正において即時的対応がなされたといえよう。

2) 一般会計モデルの結果を道路モデルと比較して検討すると次のことがいえる。

## ア）歳出合計（表V - 6）

歳出合計について注目すべきことは次の通りである。

(i)自己回帰項のパラメータが非常に大きく1に近い。

（ii）補正後予算において定数項が大きく有意である。
道路投資の動学的意思決定過程の分析

注）但し，YE，YTはE，Tの当初計数，HE，HTは同じく補正後計数をあらわす。また説明変数も各々に対応したもの（P27，表V-4）を用いている。

定数項	D43	Exp	Log STA	DS	Log GN5	R²	D.W.	S
YE-1	0.004248(0.36)	0.008175(0.21)	0.027630(0.91)	0.151369(2.19)	0.226171(5.54)	- -	0.878	2.1
YE-2	0.875405(13.05)	0.011335(0.31)	0.023408(0.84)	0.141790(2.26)	0.223319(5.53)	- -	0.888	2.1
YE-3	0.077100(0.77)	0.004130(0.10)	0.037341(1.13)	0.144718(2.05)	0.223111(5.30)	- 0.576710(0.82)	0.871	2.2
YE-4	0.886701(12.4)	0.007170(0.19)	0.029250(0.96)	0.153193(2.27)	0.226645(5.56)	- 0.037209(0.46)	0.878	2.1
HE-1	0.027121(1.95)	0.058641(1.36)	0.031725(0.97)	0.096517(1.51)	0.181242(4.87)	- -	0.844	2.3
HE-2	0.976303(11.86)	0.056198(1.37)	0.026349(0.80)	0.145410(2.31)	0.193384(4.87)	- -	0.838	2.2
HE-3	0.129627(1.31)	0.069722(1.74)	0.048293(1.66)	0.072066(1.14)	0.160959(4.32)	1.113770(1.60)	0.851	2.0
HE-4	0.853833(8.18)	0.060913(1.69)	0.035259(1.24)	0.087976(1.45)	0.176463(4.96)	0.208349(2.02)	0.851	2.3

表V - 6 一般会計歳出総額の推定結果
表V-8 社会保障费

道路投資の動学的意思決定過程の分析

定数項	自己回帰項	D43	Doil	EXP	logSTA	D5	logGN5	W.1	R2	D.W.	S
logY2	0.001883(0.13)	0.815137(10.03)	-0.038197(0.80)	0.070108(0.90)	0.114413(1.36)	-1.170882(3.55)	0.210553(4.16)	- -	- -	0.869	2.02	0.04060
- -	0.819586(11.82)	-0.036993(0.86)	0.071369(2.05)	0.118255(1.61)	-1.176294(4.03)	0.211352(4.42)	- -	- -	0.879	2.04	0.04062
0.002873(-0.02)	0.814965(10.42)	-0.038641(0.86)	0.069544(1.79)	0.114761(1.43)	-1.167469(3.66)	0.210731(4.30)	0.033679(0.04)	- -	0.857	2.04	0.04060
- -	0.814977(10.54)	-0.038337(0.87)	0.069850(1.92)	0.114472(1.45)	-1.169382(3.94)	0.210606(4.37)	0.013626(0.13)	- -	0.869	2.03	0.04060
0.012932(0.39)	0.809095(10.23)	-0.037076(0.84)	0.081760(1.69)	0.114961(1.45)	-1.152695(3.87)	0.212558(4.37)	-0.098152(0.37)	-0.098152(0.37)	0.859	1.94	0.04045
0.820481(10.66)	-0.036640(0.77)	0.072215(1.66)	0.119299(1.45)	-1.176909(3.57)	0.211663(4.19)	-0.004405(0.04)	-0.004405(0.04)	-0.004405(0.04)	0.869	2.04	0.04061
-0.016430(0.53)	0.858546(10.90)	-0.052954(1.15)	- -	0.086109(1.04)	-1.119716(3.48)	0.201604(3.90)	0.206398(0.95)	0.206398(0.95)	0.849	2.05	0.04359
0.848824(11.00)	-0.056938(1.24)	- -	0.072811(0.91)	-1.071243(3.46)	0.200959(3.86)	0.105801(1.00)	0.105801(1.00)	0.105801(1.00)	0.859	1.92	0.04395