Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .181812

Dependent variables: KREX KRBP KRY (Equation 2-2)

Current sample: 1970:3 to 1980:4

Number of observations: 42

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Grit. = -1.09074

Log of likelihood function = -133.455

Variable	Estimated	Standard
Coefficient	Error	t-statistic
KREXEQ	KREX (-1)	-.064054	.166877	-.383838
KRBP (-1)	-.255067E-04	.355927E-04	-.716626
KRY (-1)	-.318125	.289399	-1.09926
C	.026118	.010528	2.48084
KRBPEQ	KREX (-1)	23.7352	794.111	.029889
KRBP (-1)	-.049398	.169373	-.291654
KRY (-1)	818.715	1377.15	.594500
C	-45.8093	50.0982	-.914390
KRYEQ	KREX (-1)	-.076577	.106577	-.718507
KRBP (-1)	-.117625E-04	.227316E-04	-.517453
KRY (-1)	-.092199	.184827	-.498843
C	.020388	.672366E-02	3.03229

Dependent variable: KREX

Std. error of regression = .051686

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.07345

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .716187

Dependent variable: KRBP

Std. error of regression = 245.954

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.06504

Dependent variable: KRY

Std. error of regression = .033009

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.84251

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .325609

Forecast error variance decomposition

KREX	KRBP	KRY
KREX	95.70839	0.67119	3.62042
$ \rightarrow $ 95.60610	$ \rightarrow $ 0.74749	$ \rightarrow $ 3.64642
KRBP	3.33270	95.57807	1.08923
$ \rightarrow $ 3.33879	$ \rightarrow $ 95.54650	$ \rightarrow $ 1.11471
KRY	5.86236	3.48704	90.65060
$ \rightarrow $ 5.86276	$ \rightarrow $ 3.53513	$ \rightarrow $ 90.60211
## V ector Auto Regression (Korea)

Dependent variables: KREX KRBP KRY (Equation 2-3)

Current sample: 1981:1 to 1990:4

Number of observations: 40

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -1.72440

Log of likelihood function = -113.651

Variable	Estimated	Standard
Coefficient	Error	t-statistic
KREXEQ	KREX (-1)	.658274	.127389	5.16742
KRBP (-1)	-.138796E-06	.296009E-05	-.046889
KRY (-1)	.143463	.109538	1.30971
C	-.333820E-02	.381328E-02	-.875415
KRBPEQ	KREX (-1)	9302.44	7478.09	1.24396
KRBP (-1)	-.245125	.173765	-1.41066
KRY (-1)	2469.66	6430.18	.384073
C	-83.4398	223.850	-.372749
KRYEQ	KREX (-1)	-.022953	.153919	-.149127
KRBP (-1)	.201262E-05	.357655E-05	.562726
KRY (-1)	-.437153	.132350	-3.30301
C	.034462	.460742E-02	7.47967

Dependent variable: KREX

Std. error of regression = .016779

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.09461

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .870546

Dependent variable: KRBP

Std. error of regression = 984.962

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.94816

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .780066

Dependent variable: KRY

Std. error of regression = .020273

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.68272

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .184829

Forecast error variance decomposition

KREX	KRBP	KRY
KREX	98.14404	0.042206	1.81375
$ \rightarrow $ 98.15473	$ \rightarrow $ 0.044490	$ \rightarrow $ 1.80078
KRBP	16.62831	83.17805	0.19364
$ \rightarrow $ 17.02759	$ \rightarrow $ 82.75102	$ \rightarrow $ 0.22139
KRY	14.69340	2.24045	83.06615
$ \rightarrow $ 14.27354	$ \rightarrow $ 2.84532	$ \rightarrow $ 82.88113
Dependent variable: KRBP

Std. error of regression = 249.117

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.05962

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .131851

Dependent variable: KREX

Std. error of regression = .051792

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.09001

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .756777

Dependent variables: KRDR KREX KRBP KRY (Equation 2-4)

Current sample: 1970:3 to 1980:4

Number of observations: 42

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -.052565

Log of likelihood function = -199.901

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
KRDREQ	KRDR (-1).	843401	.072394	11.6501
KREX (-1)	-2.35834	4.52271	-.521443
KRBP (-1)	-.495643E-03	.946481E-03	-.523670
KRY (-1)	-2.06659	7.71152	-.267987
C	2.19445	1.06843	2.05390
KREXEQ	KRDR (-1)	.250989E-02	.273227E-02	.918609
KREX (-1)	-.095520	.170694	-.559600
KRBP (-1)	-.236790E-04	.357216E-04	-.662877
KRY (-1)	-.295449	.291044	-1.01513
C	-.963433E-02	.040324	-.238921
KRBPEQ	KRDR (-1)	2.66451	13.1421	.202747
KREX (-1)	-9.66951	821.025	-.011777
KRBP (-1)	-.047458	.171819	-.276211
KRY (-1)	842.788	1399.90	.602033
C	-83.7639	193.957	-.431868
KRYEQ	KRDR (-1)	-.189941E-02	.173693E-02	-1.09355
KREX (-1)	-.052764	.108511	-.486252
KRBP (-1)	-.131457E-04	.227085E-04	-.578888
KRY (-1)	-.109360	.185019	-.591077
C	.047444	.025634	1.85080

Dependent variable: KRDR
Std. error of regression = 1.37229
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.92816
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .153391

Forecast error variance decomposition

KRDR	KREX	KRBP	KRY
KRDR	99.28172	0.24260	0.34403	0.13165
$ \rightarrow $ 99.07084	$ \rightarrow $ 0.34901	$ \rightarrow $ 0.42761	$ \rightarrow $ 0.15254
KREX	7.20303	89.11737	0.55616	3.12343
$ \rightarrow $ 8.33413	$ \rightarrow $ 87.92280	$ \rightarrow $ 0.61380	$ \rightarrow $ 3.12927
KRBP	7.86443	1.48108	89.52327	1.13122
$ \rightarrow $ 7.86506	$ \rightarrow $ 1.48315	$ \rightarrow $ 89.49144	$ \rightarrow $ 1.16035
KRY	0.62689	4.32925	3.41828	91.62558
$ \rightarrow $ 2.03333	$ \rightarrow $ 4.28810	$ \rightarrow $ 3.44006	$ \rightarrow $ 90.23851
Dependent variables: KREX KRDPR KRBP KRY (Equation 2-5)

Current sample: 1981:1 to 1990:4

Number of observations: 40

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -.469159

Log of likelihood function = -180.758

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
KREXEQ	KREX (-1)	.559919	.141977	3.94372
KRDPR (-1)	.116436E-02	.789129E-03	1.47551
KRBP (-1)	-.276248E-06	.291434E-05	-.094789
KRY (-1)	.153143	.107989	1.41813
C	-.020821	.012429	-1.67524
KRDPREQ	KREX (-1)	-14.4529	12.4432	-1.16151
KRDPR (-1)	.832158	.069161	12.0321
KRBP (-1)	-.374189E-03	.255420E-03	-1.46499
KRY (-1)	-12.1372	9.46447	-1.28239
C	2.63621	1.08928	2.42014
KRBPEQ	KREX (-1)	12044.8	8532.82	1.41159
KRDPR (-1)	-32.4654	47.4266	-.684540
KRBP (-1)	-.241292	.175152	-1.37762
KRY (-1)	2199.75	6490.16	.338936
C	404.024	746.961	.540890
KRYEQ	KREX (-1)	.047624	.174964	.272194
KRDPR (-1)	-.835526E-03	.972475E-03	-.859175
KRBP (-1)	.211125E-05	.359146E-05	.587853
KRY (-1)	-.444099	.133080	-3.33709
C	.047007	.015316	3.06909

Dependent variable: KREX
Std. error of regression = .016511
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.03409
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.32505

Dependent variable: KRDPR
Std. error of regression = 1.44707
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.26756
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.30265

Dependent variable: KRBP
Std. error of regression = 992.313
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.94403
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .668566

Dependent variable: KRY
Std. error of regression = .020347
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.68733
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .368384

Forecast error variance decomposition

KREX	KRDPR	KRBP	KRY
KREX	96.97710	0.61202	0.097537	2.31334
$ \rightarrow $ 90.48151	$ \rightarrow $ 7.08091	$ \rightarrow $ 0.34499	$ \rightarrow $ 2.09259
KRDPR	0.37927	95.60853	2.67718	1.33502
$ \rightarrow $ 5.71995	$ \rightarrow $ 89.02447	$ \rightarrow $ 3.06037	$ \rightarrow $ 2.19521
KRBP	17.02325	0.84485	81.98040	0.15149
$ \rightarrow $ 17.40038	$ \rightarrow $ 0.87898	$ \rightarrow $ 81.53975	$ \rightarrow $ 0.18089
KRY	14.26107	0.58572	2.60718	82.54602
$ \rightarrow $ 13.77420	$ \rightarrow $ 0.76584	$ \rightarrow $ 3.14334	$ \rightarrow $ 82.31662
Dependent variable: KRY

Std. error of regression = .027109

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.06337

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.78361

Dependent variables: KREX KRPW KRBP KRY (Equation 2-6)

Current sample: 1970:3 to 1990:4

Number of observations: 82

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -7.03366

Log of likelihood function = -132.965

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
KREXEQ	KREX (-1)	.085418	.119488	.714866
KRPW (-1)	.039720	.134059	.296283
KRBP (-1)	-.360586E-05	.684335E-05	-.526915
KRY (-1)	-.162518	.166689	-.974978
C	.012508	.695470E-02	1.79854
KRPWEQ	KREX (-1)	.143880	.081533	1.76469
KRPW (-1)	.562781	.091476	6.15223
KRBP (-1)	-.154963E-05	.466958E-05	-.331855
KRY (-1)	-.056820	.113741	-.499555
C	.011029	.474556E-02	2.32413
KRBPEQ	KREX (-1)	1483.31	2095.65	.707803
KRPW (-1)	-1780.81	2351.22	-.757395
KRBP (-1)	-.253321	.120023	-2.11060
KRY (-1)	160.851	2923.50	.055020
C	11.8423	121.976	.097087
KRYEQ	KREX (-1)	-.030850	.080392	-.383742
KRPW (-1)	-.188437	.090196	-2.08919
KRBP (-1)	.111928E-05	.460426E-05	.243096
KRY (-1)	-.258245	.112150	-2.30268
C	.031542	.467918E-02	6.74093

Dependent variable: KREX
Std. error of regression = .040292
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.10342
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .437538

Dependent variable: KRPW
Std. error of regression = .027493
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.01706
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.36633

Dependent variable: KRBP
Std. error of regression = 706.669
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.02847
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .288344

Forecast error variance decomposition

KREX	KRPW	KRBP	KRY
KREX	98.51755	0.063798	0.33528	1.08336
$ \rightarrow $ 98.25572	$ \rightarrow $ 0.29402	$ \rightarrow $ 0.33841	$ \rightarrow $ 1.11185
KRPW	14.75657	84.94232	0.097630	0.20349
$ \rightarrow $ 17.74815	$ \rightarrow $ 81.79838	$ \rightarrow $ 0.14317	$ \rightarrow $ 0.31030
KRBP	1.81247	0.39804	97.78618	0.0033064
$ \rightarrow $ 1.95035	$ \rightarrow $ 0.46192	$ \rightarrow $ 97.57384	$ \rightarrow $ 0.013889
KRY	5.92193	3.17276	0.26253	90.64277
$ \rightarrow $ 6.35254	$ \rightarrow $ 3.73766	$ \rightarrow $ 0.26953	$ \rightarrow $ 89.64027
## V ector Auto Regression (Indonesia)

*****

Dependent variables: IEX IBP IY7 (Equation 3-1)

Current sample: 1976:3 to 1983:4

Number of observations: 30

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -2.21746

Log of likelihood function = -74.0355

Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
Variable
IEXEQ	IEX (-1)	.011644	.055521
IBP (-1)	-.464211E-04	-1.23460
IY7 (-1)	-1.12503	-.354167
C	.050860	.867050
IBPEQ	IEX (-1)	1267.17	1.18584
IBP (-1)	-.474878	-2.47884
IY7 (-1)	10715.1	.662061
C	-260.506	-.871645
IY7EQ	IEX (-1)	-.752347E-02	-1.22156
IBP (-1)	.856440E-06	.775651
IY7 (-1)	.911772	9.77438
C	.124755E-02	.724240

Dependent variable: IEX

Std. error of regression = .115398

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.04511

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .918777

Dependent variable: IBP

Std. error of regression = 587.956

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.13798

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .776926

Dependent variable: IY7

Std. error of regression = .338877E-02

Durbin-Watson statistic = .784473

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .797432

Forecast error variance decomposition

IEX	IBP	IY7
IEX	94.80277	5.10432	0.092915
$ \rightarrow $ 92.99678	$ \rightarrow $ 6.04355	$ \rightarrow $ 0.95967
IBP	8.85753	90.85644	0.28604
$ \rightarrow $ 9.14176	$ \rightarrow $ 90.15458	$ \rightarrow $ 0.70366
IY7	9.82715	9.11450	81.05835
$ \rightarrow $ 12.34949	$ \rightarrow $ 11.14568	$ \rightarrow $ 76.50483
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.05325

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.67819

*****

## V ector Auto Regression (Indonesia)

Dependent variables: IEX IBP IY8 (Equation 3-2)

Current sample: 1983:3 to 1989:4

Number of observations: 26

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -.825416

Log of likelihood function = -80.3982

Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
Variable
IEXEQ	IEX (-1)	.514060E-02	.023873
IBP (-1)	-.486778E-04	-1.21594
IY8 (-1)	.140350	.166407
C	.029343	1.46694
IBPEQ	IEX (-1)	227.396	.302428
IBP (-1)	-.122397	-.875583
IY8 (-1)	4777.32	1.62215
C	-36.4682	-.522121
IY8EQ	IEX (-1)	.037783	.939180
IBP (-1)	-.107652E-04	-1.43934
IY8 (-1)	-.333147	-2.11426
C	.017933	4.79857

Dependent variable: IEX

Std. error of regression = .088081

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.26657

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .746467

Dependent variable: IBP

Std. error of regression = 307.565

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.55122

Dependent variable: IY8

Std. error of regression = .016456

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.28113

Forecast error variance decomposition

IEX	IBP	IY8
IEX	97.05926	2.88427	0.056467
$ \rightarrow $ 96.73659	$ \rightarrow $ 2.94782	$ \rightarrow $ 0.31559
IBP	6.67102	88.36884	4.96014
$ \rightarrow $ 6.67788	$ \rightarrow $ 87.37557	$ \rightarrow $ 5.94655
IY8	9.70307	6.77515	83.52178
$ \rightarrow $ 10.09446	$ \rightarrow $ 6.85020	$ \rightarrow $ 83.05534
## V ector Auto Regression (Indonesia)

*****

Dependent variables: IEX IMR IBP IY7 (Equation 3-3)

Current sample: 1978:2 to 1983:4

Number of observations: 23

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = 5.48148

Log of likelihood function = -162.224

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
ISEQ	IEX (-1)	-.056830	2.11099	-.026921
IMR (-1)	-.824699E-02	.073272	-.112553
IBP (-1)	-.553772E-04	.379251E-03	-.146017
IY7 (-1)	-1.65965	35.1522	-.047213
C	.180192	1.31435	.137095
IMREQ	IEX (-1)	-.529453	4.89504	-.108161
IMR (-1)	.688329	.169906	4.05124
IBP (-1)	.635292E-03	.879421E-03	.722397
IY7 (-1)	-66.3584	81.5122	-.814092
C	5.53451	3.04777	1.81592
IBPEQ	IEX (-1)	1064.23	1280.59	.831046
IMR (-1)	-32.5937	44.4490	-.733282
IBP (-1)	-.513406	.230065	-2.23156
IY7 (-1)	4834.61	21324.4	.226717
C	270.860	797.327	.339710
IY7EQ	IEX (-1)	-.645958E-02	.736418E-02	-.877162
IMR (-1)	.119072E-03	.255609E-03	.465836
IBP (-1)	.107647E-05	.132302E-05	.813646
IY7 (-1)	.912776	.122629	7.44342
C	-.633820E-03	.458512E-02	-.138234

Dependent variable: IEX

Std. error of regression = 1.12153

Durbin-Watson statistic = .329152

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = -5.89958

Dependent variable: IMR
Std. error of regression = 2.60064
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.56567
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 27.1603

Dependent variable: IBP

Std. error of regression = 680.353

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.21594

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = -.226028

Dependent variable: IY7
Std. error of regression = .391245E-02
Durbin-Watson statistic = .759535
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 52.2935

Forecast error variance decomposition

IEX	IMR	IBP	IY7
IEX	99.87714	0.0075960	0.11217	0.0030986
$ \rightarrow $ 99.82882	$ \rightarrow $ 0.028481	$ \rightarrow $ 0.13731	$ \rightarrow $ 0.0053874
IMR	28.70037	69.56317	1.16502	0.57144
$ \rightarrow $ 40.73304	$ \rightarrow $ 45.41272	$ \rightarrow $ 2.02957	$ \rightarrow $ 11.82467
IBP	72.41632	1.75841	25.80931	0.015967
$ \rightarrow $ 77.45088	$ \rightarrow $ 1.56245	$ \rightarrow $ 20.86611	$ \rightarrow $ 0.12057
IY7	64.20241	0.84540	3.62981	31.32238
$ \rightarrow $ 68.92995	$ \rightarrow $ 2.41063	$ \rightarrow $ 4.01482	$ \rightarrow $ 24.64459
Dependent variables: OP IEX IBP IY7 (Equation 3-4)

Current sample: 1976:3 to 1983:4

Number of observations: 30

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -7.62469

Log of likelihood function = -21.8903

OPEQ	Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
OP (-1)	.714139	.154359	4.62648
IEX (-1)	-.011887	.106613	-.111497
IBP (-1)	.452522E-04	.186380E-04	2.42796
IY7 (-1)	-1.01276	1.77597	-.570257
C	.027934	.030049	.929634
IEXEQ	OP (-1)	-.147702	.317035	-.465884
IEX (-1)	-.012087	.218969	-.055201
IBP (-1)	-.451276E-04	.382802E-04	-1.17888
IY7 (-1)	-.331465	3.64762	-.090871
C	.043330	.061717	.702074
IBPEQ	OP (-1)	987.117	1610.23	.613027
IEX (-1)	1425.77	1112.16	1.28199
IBP (-1)	-.483522	.194427	-2.48691
IY7 (-1)	5411.60	18526.4	.292102
C	-210.179	313.462	-.670508
IY7EQ	OP (-1)	.015995	.878604E-02	1.82052
IEX (-1)	-.495347E-02	.606833E-02	-.816282
IBP (-1)	.716363E-06	.106086E-05	.675263
IY7 (-1)	.825834	.101087	8.16952
C	.206304E-02	.171037E-02	1.20620

Dependent variable: OP

Std. error of regression = .057051

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.29756

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.30207

Dependent variable: IEX

Std. error of regression = .117176

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.04335

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .666422

Dependent variable: IBP

Std. error of regression = 595.143

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.11421

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .630783

Dependent variable: IY7

Std. error of regression = .324732E-02

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.01213

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.68370

Forecast error variance decomposition

OP	IEX	IBP	IY7
OP	88.38336	1.35863	10.11335	0.14466
$ \rightarrow $ 85.72538	$ \rightarrow $ 3.28038	$ \rightarrow $ 9.16124	$ \rightarrow $ 1.83301
IEX	5.14116	90.67983	4.17282	0.0061960
$ \rightarrow $ 5.91206	$ \rightarrow $ 89.19689	$ \rightarrow $ 4.87178	$ \rightarrow $ 0.019266
IBP	2.08000	12.08864	85.77467	0.056693
$ \rightarrow $ 2.60415	$ \rightarrow $ 11.95811	$ \rightarrow $ 85.37728	$ \rightarrow $ 0.060461
IY7	32.85932	2.43423	2.51095	62.19550
$ \rightarrow $ 62.28785	$ \rightarrow $ 1.08200	$ \rightarrow $ 6.22889	$ \rightarrow $ 30.40126
Dependent variables: IEX IMR IBP IY8 (Equation 3-5)

Current sample: 1983:3 to 1989:4

Number of observations: 26

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = 1.98094

Log of likelihood function = -140.741

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
IEXEQ	IEX (-1)	-.020511	.213091	-.096253
IMR (-1)	-.571837E-02	.443465E-02	-1.28947
IBP (-1)	-.565823E-04	.399170E-04	-1.41750
IY8 (-1)	.278851	.837902	.332797
C	.106295	.062847	1.69133
IMREQ	IEX (-1)	.024383	9.34615	.260888E-02
IMR (-1)	.359908	.194504	1.85039
IBP (-1)	.286865E-02	.175076E-02	1.63852
IY8 (-1)	-45.9714	36.7503	-1.25091
C	9.14336	2.75646	3.31707
IBPEQ	IEX (-1)	242.757	772.137	.314396
IMR (-1)	3.42441	16.0690	.213106
IBP (-1)	-.117663	.144640	-.813492
IY8 (-1)	4694.38	3036.15	1.54616
C	-82.5502	227.726	-.362498
IY8EQ	IEX (-1)	.029116	.036055	.807544
IMR (-1)	-.193210E-02	.750345E-03	-2.57496
IBP (-1)	-.134360E-04	.675397E-05	-1.98934
IY8 (-1)	-.286351	.141773	-2.01978
C	.043933	.010634	4.13146

Dependent variable: IEX

Std. error of regression = .086784

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.25490

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.06688

Dependent variable: IMR

Std. error of regression = 3.80634

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.97964

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.20897

Dependent variable: IBP
Std. error of regression = 314.463
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.69399
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.64216

Dependent variable: IY8
Std. error of regression = .014684
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.95259
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.28280

Forecast error variance decomposition

IEX	IMR	IBP	IY8
IEX	90.42690	5.24526	4.19601	0.13183
→88.88046	→6.65933	→4.30409	→0.15612
IMR	3.33416	87.87681	7.05827	1.73076
→3.16371	→87.64128	→7.45179	→1.74322
IBP	5.89446	2.04862	89.20467	2.85225
→5.73937	→4.27335	→86.63675	→3.35053
IY7	2.93217	40.30351	9.62967	47.13465
→3.11606	→40.17294	→9.86935	→46.84165
Dependent variables: OP IEX IBP IY8 (Equation 3-6)

Current sample: 1983.3 to 1989:4

Number of observations: 26

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -5.36286

Log of likelihood function = -45.2715

OPEQ	Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
OP (-1)	.569287	.210893	2.69941
IEX (-1)	.695777	.316651	2.19729
IBP (-1)	-.510794E-04	.625793E-04	-.816234
IY8 (-1)	-.245079	1.20006	-.204223
C	-.020738	.028006	-.740481
IEXEQ	OP (-1)	-.506073	.107921	-4.68931
IEX (-1)	-.230643	.162040	-1.42337
IBP (-1)	.185215E-04	.320238E-04	.578368
IY8 (-1)	-.396239	.614106	-.645230
C	.033067	.014331	2.30732
IBPEQ	OP (-1)	604.663	522.779	1.15663
IEX (-1)	509.114	784.940	.648602
IBP (-1)	-.202687	.155126	-1.30659
IY8 (-1)	5418.44	2974.79	1.82145
C	-40.9178	69.4229	-.589400
IY8EQ	OP (-1)	-.043475	.027243	-1.59582
IEX (-1)	.017527	.040905	.428487
IBP (-1)	-.499228E-05	.808404E-05	-.617548
IY8 (-1)	-.379244	.155024	-2.44636
C	.018252	.361780E-02	5.04518

Dependent variable: OP

Std. error of regression = .123132

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.94369

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.00756

Dependent variable: IEX

Std. error of regression = .063011

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.92181

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 8.30230

Dependent variable: IBP

Std. error of regression = 305.230

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.78850

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.17286

Dependent variable: IY8

Std. error of regression = .015906

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.92600

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.76301

Forecast error variance decomposition

OP	IEX	IBP	IY8
OP	89.95419	9.30896	0.67191	0.064939
$ \rightarrow $ 88.88546	$ \rightarrow $ 9.96551	$ \rightarrow $ 0.68187	$ \rightarrow $ 0.46716
IEX	46.14796	52.92192	0.46187	0.46824
$ \rightarrow $ 46.09469	$ \rightarrow $ 52.27435	$ \rightarrow $ 0.58278	$ \rightarrow $ 1.04818
IBP	26.73168	3.31302	63.58154	6.37376
$ \rightarrow $ 26.45872	$ \rightarrow $ 3.65225	$ \rightarrow $ 60.92562	$ \rightarrow $ 8.96341
IY8	10.20779	1.01230	3.66695	85.11296
$ \rightarrow $ 11.21865	$ \rightarrow $ 3.20871	$ \rightarrow $ 3.80668	$ \rightarrow $ 81.76595
Dependent variables: IEX IPW IBP IY7 (Equation 3-7)

Current sample: 1976:3 to 1983:4

Number of observations: 30

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -8.88142

Log of likelihood function = -3.03928

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
ISEQ	IEX (-1)	.056884	.233819	.243283
IPW (-1)	-.278963	.595395	-.468534
IBP (-1)	-.389789E-04	.413500E-04	-.942658
IY7 (-1)	-1.05170	3.22912	-.325691
C	.061180	.063502	.963438
IPWEQ	IEX (-1)	.136523	.083025	1.64436
IPW (-1)	.438809	.211414	2.07559
IBP (-1)	-.329075E-04	.146826E-04	-2.24125
IY7 (-1)	.726976	1.14660	.634025
C	.692605E-02	.022548	.307163
IBPEQ	IEX (-1)	291.584	1099.29	.265248
IPW (-1)	6015.73	2799.22	2.14908
IBP (-1)	-.635365	.194405	-3.26826
IY7 (-1)	9133.76	15181.5	.601636
C	-483.056	298.551	-1.61800
IY7EQ	IEX (-1)	-.013541	.625037E-02	-2.16639
IPW (-1)	037104	.015916	2.33126
IBP (-1)	-.133422E-06	.110535E-05	-.120706
IY7 (-1)	.902018	.086320	10.4498
C	-.125102E-03	.169751E-02	-.073698

Dependent variable: IEX

Std. error of regression = .117171

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.06675

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .667306

Dependent variable: IPW

Std. error of regression = .041605

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.20175

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.21899

Forecast error variance decomposition

IEX	IPW	IBP	IY7
IEX	96.11778	1.12057	2.69296	0.068696
$ \rightarrow $ 92.08018	$ \rightarrow $ 2.50288	$ \rightarrow $ 4.35505	$ \rightarrow $ 1.06189
IPW	46.48425	42.80371	10.52843	0.18361
$ \rightarrow $ 46.63732	$ \rightarrow $ 42.23556	$ \rightarrow $ 10.40615	$ \rightarrow $ 0.72097
IBP	11.29309	6.25169	82.28172	0.17350
$ \rightarrow $ 11.97106	$ \rightarrow $ 6.36860	$ \rightarrow $ 80.85637	$ \rightarrow $ 0.80398
IY7	7.25790	17.72396	0.04899	74.96914
$ \rightarrow $ 1.53347	$ \rightarrow $ 37.49315	$ \rightarrow $ 1.31866	$ \rightarrow $ 59.65473
Dependent variables: IEX IPW IBP IY8 (Equation 3-8)

Current sample: 1983:3 to 1989:4

Number of observations: 26

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -8.19770

Log of likelihood function = -8.41855

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
ISEQ	IEX (-1)	-.438912E-02	.221697	-.019798
IPW (-1)	-.281346	.848720	-.331495
IBP(-1)	-.317831E-04	.653277E-04	-.486518
IY8(-1)	.244200	.916233	.266526
C	.033459	.023898	1.40005
IPWEQ	IEX (-1)	.141300	.051774	2.72917
IPW (-1)	.138161	.198206	.697059
IBP (-1)	-.644268E-05	.152563E-04	-.422296
IY8 (-1)	-.129636	.213973	-.605851
C	.012420	.558109E-02	2.22544
IBPEQ	IEX (-1)	182.385	772.444	.236115
IPW (-1)	-1328.85	2957.14	-.449370
IBP (-1)	-.042600	.227617	-.187155
IY8 (-1)	5267.82	3192.37	1.65013
C	-17.0293	83.2671	-.204514
IY8EQ	IEX (-1)	.036541	.041474	.881043
IPW (-1)	-.036674	.158776	-.230978
IBP (-1)	-.856296E-05	.122213E-04	-.700657
IY8 (-1)	-.319610	.171406	-1.86464
C	.018469	.447082E-02	4.13101

Dependent variable: IEX

Std. error of regression = .089919

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.28551

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .514140

Dependent variable: IPW

Std. error of regression = .020999

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.36156

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.03341

Dependent variable: IBP

Std. error of regression = 313.300

Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.70592

F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.70643

Dependent variable: IY8
Std. error of regression = .016822
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.02873
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .8351.19

Forecast error variance decomposition

IEX	IPW	IBP	IY8
IEX	97.25741	1.58911	0.98225	0.17123
$ \rightarrow $ 97.10334	$ \rightarrow $ 1.59306	$ \rightarrow $ 0.99446	$ \rightarrow $ 0.30915
IPW	29.04970	70.01003	0.25642	0.68384
$ \rightarrow $ 29.25300	$ \rightarrow $ 69.55513	$ \rightarrow $ 0.46454	$ \rightarrow $ 0.72734
IBP	7.01208	25.83342	61.15956	5.99494
$ \rightarrow $ 7.07055	$ \rightarrow $ 25.69354	$ \rightarrow $ 60.65063	$ \rightarrow $ 6.58528
IY8	9.73128	2.92220	4.02223	83.32430
$ \rightarrow $ 10.36166	$ \rightarrow $ 2.91797	$ \rightarrow $ 4.00647	$ \rightarrow $ 82.71391