Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
Toyota, T. (1990). “Nihon no Kahei Juyou, 1900-1988 nen.”, (in Japanese: On the Money Demand for the Japanese Economy, 1900-1988), Kokumin Keizai Zashi, 162.

Tseng, Wanda, and Robert Corker (1991), “Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Monetary Policy in Asian Countries.” International Monetary Fund, IMF Occasional Paper 84 (July 1991).

Tsutsui, Y., and M. Hatanaka. (1982). “Nichibei Ryoukoku ni Okeru Kahei Jyuyoukansuu no Anteisei ni Tsuite.”, (in Japanese: On the Stabilities of the Money Demand Function in the Japan and the U.S.), Kikan Riron Keizaigaku 50.

Ueda, Kazuo (1983). Kokusai Makurokeizaigaku to Nihonkeizai (in Japanese: International Macroeconomics and Japanese Economy) Chapter 4, Toyokeizai Shinpousha.

___, (1992). “Kinyuu Seisaku no Seiji Keizaigaku (Political Economy of Monetary Policy).” in ‘Kokusaishuuusi Fukinnkooka no Kinyuu Seisaku (Monetary Policy under Balance of Payment Disequilibrium)’, Toyo Keizai Shimposha.

van Winbergen, Sweder (1986). Exchange Rate Management and Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries, in Sebastian Edwards and Liaquat eds. Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, University of Chicago Press.

Yap, J. T. (1991). “A Perspective on Philippine Economic Performance and Development Strategies.” Working Paper No. 3, Department of Research Cooperation, Economic Research Institute, Economic Planning Agency, Japan, (July 1991).

Ygrubay, Anthony. P. "Government Securities and Monetary Policy." The Central Bank of the Philippines, CB Review (July 1990).

Yoshikawa, Hiroshi. (1993). “Makuro Keizaigaku to Nihonkeizai.”, (in Japanese: Macroeconomics and the Japanese Economy), Tokyo: Toyo Keizai Shinposha.

___, (1992). Nihon Keizai to Makuro Keizaigaku (in Japanese: Japanese Economy and Macro Economics), Toyo Keizai Shimpousha.
___, (1989). “Money Supply to Jittai Keizai (in Japanese: Money Supply and Real Economy).” Tokyo Daigaku Keizaigaku Ronsou 55-3 (October 1989).

White, Halbert (1980). “A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity.” Econometrica Vol. 48.

Woo, W. T., and Nasution A (1989). “Indonesian Economic Policies and Their Relation to External Debt Management.” Vol. 3 in Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance edited by Sachs, J. D. and Collins S. M. op. cit..

World Bank (1993). The East Asian Miracles: Economic Growth and Public Policy. Oxford University Press.

___, (1991). World Development Report 1991. Oxford University Press.

Zialcita, E. P., and Gonzalez, C. M. (1991), “The Conduct of Monetary Policy in the Philippines: 1971-1990”, The Central Bank of the Philippines, CB Review (May 1991).
# ICT and the Future of Industry

## Section 1 ICT and Future Issues for Japan's Economy

In this section, we sort through prevailing views on future issues for Japan’s economy and the role ICT can

### 1. Future issues for Japan's economy

## (1) Continuation of the low birth rate and aging population and the arrival of a society with a declining population

Due to the ongoing low birth rate and aging population, Japan’s working-age population has been in decline since its peak in 1995, and the total population started declining since its highest point in 2008. According to the national census, the country’s total population in 2010 was 127.08 million and the working-age population was 81.03 million. And according to population projections (medium fertility assumption) by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the total population will fall to 116.62 million in 2030 and to 86.74 million in 2060 (a 31.74 percent decline from the 2010 population). The working-age population is forecast to shrink to 67.73 million in 2030 and to 44.18 million in 2060 (a 45.47 percent decline from 2010) (Figure 5-1-1-1).

play.

## (2) Course of action toward mid-to-long-term economic growth

As the birth rate remains low and the population continues to age and decline, we must move ahead with supply-side measures and demand-side measures, as two halves of the same whole, in order to realize mid-to-long-term economic growth. On the demand side, the first priority is to focus on the shrinking labor input and to boost the productivity of enterprises. Additionally, we must expand the labor participation rate through the promotion of employment for women and seniors as well as improve labor quality through enhancements to education and HR development. On the supply side, it is important to advance efforts to capture expanding overseas demand through proactive global expansion by enterprises and to strive to generate sustained demand through the creation of new products and services (product innovation).

Figure 5-1-1-1 Transitions in and future projections of Japan's population

(Source) Figures to 2010 taken from the "National Census," MIC; figures for 2014 taken from "Population Statistics," MIC (figures established on December 1); and figures for 2015 and beyond taken from "Population Projections for Japan (January 2012)," (medium fertility and medium mortality assumption) National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
## Section 2 Global Trends in the ICT Industry

In this section, we categorize trends in the ICT industry’s global markets and verify the position of Japan’s ICT industry in those markets.

### 1. Overall trends

As discussed in Section 3 of Chapter 1, the current structure (an era of co-creation and competition through mobile and cloud) of the ICT industry supports a mixture of business models, with enterprises in each layer expanding into higher and lower layers and collaborating with enterprises in other layers aiming to generate new added value, as the market's diversification and globalization accelerates and as vertical separation and horizontal integration between layers progresses (Figure 5-2-1-1).

Figure 5-2-1-1 Current structure of the ICT industry

(Source) "Study Report on Structural Changes and Future Prospects for the Global ICT Industry," MIC (2015)

### 2. Application layer: Trends in Japan's ICT industry

The content market for smartphones, particularly mobile games, has been growing in Japan. At the same time, efforts seeking to make overseas content and app markets into future growth centers have been observed, exemplified by the overseas expansion of domestic game platform enterprises. Below, we look at two examples of such efforts by Line and GungHo Online Entertainment.

### a. Line

Messenger apps for sending and receiving messages on smartphones are rapidly growing in reach and usage along with the popularity of social media. Messenger apps are expanding in order to further their growth and to battle with other leading apps for users. Line, a messenger app that became hugely popular nearly overnight in Japan, has been aggressive in pushing its overseas expansion, reaching 560 million registered users worldwide in October 2014. In surpassing 500 million users in just over three years since its launch, Line is growing at a pace faster than Facebook, the world's largest social network.

Although Line has many users in Europe and the Americas, currently its growth continues to be predominantly in Asia. The company has also continued to add new features and services since its launch, and the apps, including games, supplied by Line have been downloaded more than 1 billion times to date. And Line’s business as an advertising media platform has been expanding, especially in Asian countries where it is used heavily (Figure 5-2-2-1).

Figure 5-2-2-1 Line's trajectory since launch
Figure 5-2-6-1 State of overseas expansion efforts by Japanese manufacturers

(Source) “Study Report on Structural Changes and Future Prospects for the Global ICT Industry,” MIC (2015)

Figure 5-2-6-2 Overseas sales percentages and operating profit rates of communications device and electronic equipment manufacturers and parts and materials manufacturers

(Source) "Study Report on Structural Changes and Future Prospects for the Global ICT Industry," MIC (2015)

and materials market is expected to manifest itself when it comes to building the next mainstay products after smartphones in the IoT age. For example, domestic manufacturers own the top market shares worldwide in sensor devices, which are a crucial component underpinning the IoT. According to a JEITA study, Japanese manufacturers shipped 883.9 billion yen worth of sensors in 2011, more than half of the global demand of 1.8290 trillion yen. Many Japanese enterprises, such as Rohm and Murata Manufacturing, are highly skilled in sensor technology and are positioned to lead the sensor market both in terms of manufacturing and application. As the smartphone market matures and IoT continues to develop, these companies are expected to bolster their supplies for wearables, connected vehicles, and other new markets.
## Policy Focus: Fund Corporation for the Overseas Development of Japan's ICT and Postal Services

Our economic growth requires us to aggressively capture ASEAN and other overseas demand for communications, broadcasting, and postal services ahead of other countries. An effective means of accomplishing this is to expand overseas by providing ICT services and broadcast content as packages; i.e., providing operational, maintenance, and management services together with constructing infrastructure in the partner country. The personal connections made when deploying Japan's terrestrial digital television broadcasting standard overseas, a project tackled by MIC together with the government, can help expand the market for all of Japan's ICT fields. Active overseas expansion making use of these personal connections is expected.

At the same time, overseas communications, broadcasting, and postal businesses are regulated sectors, and, as such, are subject to government risks and resulting demand risks. This situation makes it difficult for private companies to enter these markets on their own. It is believed that providing assistance to companies in these businesses, in the form of long-term risk management, will be effective to offset the risks.

Given these circumstances, MIC submitted in March 2015 the Fund Corporation for the Overseas Development of Japan's ICT and Postal Services bill to the 189 $ ^{th} $ session of the National Diet. The bill was passed in May 2015. The Act on the Fund Corporation for the Overseas Development of Japan's ICT and Postal Services stipulates the establishment and operational scope of the Fund Corporation to Aid Overseas Communications, Broadcasting, and Postal Services. The Fund Corporation leads the disbursement of the FY 2015 budget of 20 billion yen in industry investments and 7 billion yen in government guarantees, which is earmarked to provide funds, deploy experts, and provide other forms of assistance to companies engaged in overseas telecommunications businesses, broadcasting businesses, or postal services, or related businesses (Figure).

Figure Overview of the Fund Corporation for the Overseas Development of Japan's ICT and Postal Services

## • Establishment of the Fund Corporation

-The Fund Corporation is established with the approval of the Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications.

-The government shall always hold at least 50 percent of the Fund Corporation’s total shares.

## • Main operations of the Fund Corporation

- Provide the following forms of assistance to companies engaged in communications, broadcasting, or postal services overseas:

-Financing (joint investment with the private sector)

-Business planning and operational support

(negotiations with partner country's government, deploy experts in the communications, broadcasting, or postal field, etc.)

## • Management of the Fund Corporation

-Corporate governance regulations under the Companies Act apply, as it is an incorporated company.

-Supervised $ ^{*} $ by the Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications.

$ ^{*} $ Decisions on assistance criteria, approval of assistance decisions, supervision orders, etc.
## Policy Focus: Overseas expansion of ICT infrastructure systems centered on terrestrial digital television

In keeping with the Japanese government’s overall efforts to deploy infrastructure systems overseas, MIC has positioned international expansion in the ICT field as a priority policy and is aggressively pursuing initiatives in this area, such as high-level public-private joint trade promotions.

As part of the government’s strategy to export infrastructure systems, MIC is actively working to incorporate Japan’s terrestrial digital TV standard, disaster-preparedness ICT and other cutting-edge ICT systems, and Japan’s superlative postal systems into the public infrastructure systems of partner countries. It aims to do this by being involved from the proposal formation stage onward through inter-governmental dialogs and other representations.

As more countries adopt Japan’s terrestrial digital TV standard, a certain amount of results are being seen from the overseas expansion, such as an increase in overseas orders for digital broadcast transmitters from Japanese manufacturers.

In 2016, taking advantage of the tenth anniversary since Japan’s terrestrial digital TV standard was first adopted overseas, MIC, in cooperation with private enterprises and other organizations, will put priority on activities to raise awareness and build cooperation on the international proliferation of fiber optics and other ICT technologies and services that Japan has accumulated, centered on terrestrial digital TV.

A major premise of fully manifesting the strengths of Japan’s ICT technologies and services in international markets is ensuring the freedom to distribute information on the Internet. Therefore, MIC will work in partnership with developed countries in the West to continue to ensure freedom on the Internet (Figure).

Figure Overseas expansion to all ICT sectors centered on terrestrial digital television

## Section 3 Perceptions and Predictions by ICT Enterprise Executives in Six Countries

In this section, we perform an international comparison of the state and perceptions of ICT global development using the results of a survey of ICT industry enterprises in six countries: Japan, the United States, Germany, China, South Korea, and India.

### 1. Perceptions of the competitiveness of own country's ICT industry

ICT-related enterprises in the six countries were asked how they rate the international competitiveness of their own country's ICT industry by layer. The results show that, in general, enterprises in the three Asian countries—Japan, China, and South Korea—gave higher competitiveness scores for the lower layers: communications layer, device layer, and component layer. On the other hand, enterprises in the U.S., Germany, and India gave higher competitiveness scores for the higher layers: IT services, platforms, and content and applications.

By country, Japanese enterprises rated the competitiveness of Japan’s ICT industry highest in the communications layer, followed by the content and application
layer, and the component layer. This indicates a strong perception that the ICT industry's competitiveness is driven by the communications layer.

Among U.S. enterprises, the difference in scores for the device and component layer and the communications and higher layers was enormous. Above all, U.S. enterprises feel that the U.S. industry is strongly competitive in the content and application layer. The same tendency appears in Germany, apart from the platform layer. On the opposite side of the U.S. and Germany is China, whose enterprises rate China's competitiveness highly in the communications layer and device layer. This reflects their recognition of China's huge domestic communications market and China's increasing presence in the global device market in recent years (Figure 5-3-1-1).

Figure 5-3-1-1 Perceptions of the competitiveness of own country's ICT industry

(Source) "Study Report on Structural Changes and Future Prospects for the Global ICT Industry," MIC (2015)

### 2. Most important overseas expansion issue

The surveyed ICT enterprises in the six countries were asked what was the most important issue they faced with respect to overseas expansion. Overall, enterprises tended to pick external factors such as “regulatory environment” or “financing environment” most frequently. Japanese enterprises, however, had strong issue recognition with internal factors such as “securing labor and labor liquidity” and “determining management or business strategies.” Compared to enterprises in other countries, Japanese enterprises were far more likely to view labor issues as a problem. This underscores that labor is an urgent issue for Japan’s industry (Figure 5-3-2-1).

Figure 5-3-2-1 Overseas expansion issues (most important issue)

(Source) "Study Report on Structural Changes and Future Prospects for the Global ICT Industry," MIC (2015)

### 3. Promising fields as seen by enterprises in different countries

The surveyed ICT enterprises in the six countries were asked what fields they saw as promising. The most frequent responses in all the countries except Japan were concentrated in the ICT use and application layer or the content and application layer. Enterprises in China, India, and Germany had the greatest interest in “smart towns/smart cities” and “smart infrastructure (electricity, energy, water, gas, etc.).” U.S. and South Korean enterprises were most interested in “applications/software.” Japanese enterprises, on the other hand, showed the most interest in “cloud/virtualization (SDN/NFV)”—elements of the platform layer that have been in the limelight in recent years (Figure 5-3-3-1).

After averaging and adjusting for variances between countries, the interest in the platform layer and the ICT use and application layer markets, with some exceptions, was relatively higher among enterprises in all six countries. At the same time, all enterprises tended to be least interested in the component layer.
Figure 5-4-1-4 The IoT's impact on business

(Source) "Study Report on Structural Changes and Future Prospects for the Global ICT Industry," MIC (2015)

cumulate data, as well as analyze, apply, or respond to the data, all of which is engendered by the IoT.

With respect to the sensor technology that enables the collection of data, Japan holds a relatively large portion of the sensor market. And while Japan is thought to be highly competitive in this market, it is very likely Japanese enterprises will have to compete with Chinese

### 2. Advancement of big data application

It has been several years since the application of big data became a watched trend in the ICT industry. Solutions using big data have now advanced past the experimental phase and are being developed into businesses. Nevertheless, it is difficult to grasp the state of big data use and application by just following individual case studies. In this paragraph, therefore, we analyze the current state of big data application from two sides—a macro study (estimating the volume of big data traffic in Japan) and a micro study (a survey of the current state of big data application by enterprises and other organizations)—based on past surveys up to last year.

## (1) Estimations of the volume of big data distribution in Japan

The data distribution volume in 2014 was estimated to and South Korean enterprises that are very attracted to the sensor domain. Therefore, it is vital to construct an IoT ecosystem as early as possible that includes the data analysis, response, and application domains, through the aggressive pursuit of cross-industry collaborations and tie-ups with overseas enterprises.

be approximately 14.5 exabytes for the total of nine industries (service industry, information and communications industry, transportation industry, real estate industry, finance and insurance industry, wholesale and retail industry, electricity, gas, and water industry, construction industry, and manufacturing industry). Over time, the data distribution volume has risen from approximately 1.6 exabytes in 2005 to an estimated 14.5 exabytes in 2014, a jump of about 9.3 times in nine years (an average annual growth rate of 28.2 percent) (Figure 5-4-2-1).

## (2) Current state of big data application by enterprises

Below, we analyze, based on survey data, what types of data enterprises use in what domains and how they

Figure 5-4-2-1 Transitions in domestic data distribution volumes

(Source) "Study Report on Big Data Distribution Volume Estimates and the State of Big Data Application," MIC (2015)
analyze the data and what extent of benefits have they attained.

### a. Benefit attainment ratio through the application of data

We calculated the attainment ratio of benefits from the percentage of enterprises that use data in each given domain and the percentage that obtained benefits through the application of data. The highest attainment ratio was for “logistics and inventory management,” at 67 percent. Contrarily, “general management” had the highest data application percentage but the lowest benefit attainment ratio. We can read from these results that it is relatively easy to obtain benefits through the use and application of data in the “logistics and inventory management” domain (Figure 5-4-2-2).

### b. Comparison of enterprises that have attained benefits through the application of data versus enterprises that have not

We conjectured there might be some differences in the analytic methods and data used in analyses between enterprises that have attained benefits through the application of data those that have not. To test our conjecture, we compared enterprises that have attained benefits versus enterprises that have not, targeting enterprises that use data analyses for “planning, development, and marketing,” an area that had a relatively high rate of data application across all industries.

We first compared enterprises on their data analysis frequency. A majority of enterprises that have attained benefits analyze data at intervals shorter than one month, whereas a majority of enterprises that have not attained benefits analyze data at intervals of one month or longer (Figure 5-4-2-3). This finding suggests that, in order to attain benefits through the application of data, data should be analyzed at relatively short intervals.

We next compared enterprises on the number of data types used in analyses. Among enterprises that have attained benefits, the most common response was for five or more data types used in analyses. Conversely, a majority of enterprises that have not attained benefits answered they used two or less data types in analyses (Figure 5-4-2-4).

Figure 5-4-2-2 Benefit attainment ratios through the application of data

(Source) "Study Report on Big Data Distribution Volume Estimates and the State of Big Data Application," MIC (2015)

Figure 5-4-2-3 Comparison of benefit attainment (analysis frequency)

(Source) "Study Report on Big Data Distribution Volume Estimates and the State of Big Data Application," MIC (2015)

Figure 5-4-2-4 Comparison of benefit attainment (no. of data types used in analyses)

(Source) "Study Report on Big Data Distribution Volume Estimates and the State of Big Data Application," MIC (2015)
Serial No. 92

September 2001

# 消防研究所报告

通 卷 92 号

2001年9月

## 目次

2000年鳥取県西部地震の際の境港市の石油タンクサイトにおける
強震動の推定とタンクの応答解析
畑山 健，座間 信作 ……(1)

土地条件図に基づく地盤の増幅度の推定
座間 信作，遠藤 真，細川 直史 ……(16)

局所的な応力変動から見た一面せん断試験機中のすべり面の形成について
新井場 公徳 ……(27)

ヒドロキシルアミン水溶液の分解に関する危険性評価
岩田 雄策，古稹 博，山田 實，長谷川 和俊，細谷 文夫 ……(37)

火災被害と頻度に関する研究
鶴田 俊 ……(49)

大規模火災の水と塩類水溶液による延焼阻止（英文）
高橋 哲 ……(57)

所外発表論文 ……(69)

独立行政法人消防研究所