Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
models to evaluate monetary policy under alternative circumstances.

## (2) Increasing relationship between economic indicators and monetary variables

In the countries for whom we divided the estimation period into two parts, which are Japan, Korea and Indonesia, F-statistics of each VAR estimation improved in the second period. This result shows that the relationship between macroeconomic variables and monetary variables are increasing and suggesting that background of effectiveness of the monetary variables is increasing. This result is supported by the improving significance of the VAR estimation of Japan and Korea, measured by Schwartz-Bayes Information Criterion.

## (3) Lack of common results

From the results of our study, we could not find common relationship in all countries between monetary variables and real economic growth rate, and rate of inflation. On the contrary, we find apparent differences between countries.

The most striking finding was that the results of Japan and Korea were quite different. It has been widely believed that economic development of East Asian countries has a common character, and sound macroeconomic management was considered as one element of high and stable economic growth. However, as far as this empirical study is concerned, the results of the monetary policies had completely different conclusions. In the case of Japan, the importance of the role of interest rate on the economic growth is apparent. But in the case of Korea, we recognized the strong independent feature of money supply and interest rate.

In a country like Indonesia, where the economic performance is strongly affected by an exogenous factor like oil, we found the dominance of oil price in determining the economic feature. Even though this is a naturally expected result, we found it important to confirm it by the VAR model. As the relative importance of oil declines, monetary variables started to influence other economic variables.

In the case of the Philippines, results from the VAR Model were quite different from what we have expected. However, these results suggest us that confusion of the monetary from the traditional viewpoint might be one element of the economic turmoil in the Philippines.

## (4) Strong relationship between inflation and interest rate

In the second period of Japan, second period of Korea, and in the Philippines, we recognized strong causality from inflation on the interest rate. One candidate explanation of this relationship between the two variables can be considered as the existence of Fisher Effect in the 1980's. In the case of Japan and Korea, the exchange rate might be the factor
deriving this result, but it is difficult to deny the existence of inflationary expectations.
Table 4-1 Japan: 1962 Q3 - 1973 Q1

JMR	JM2	JPW	JY
JMR	89.49	3.79	1.23	5.49
$ \rightarrow $ 75.35	$ \rightarrow $ 12.58	$ \rightarrow $ 0.71	$ \rightarrow $ 11.36
JM2	1.03	92.06	1.86	5.05
$ \rightarrow $ 1.12	$ \rightarrow $ 91.52	$ \rightarrow $ 1.85	$ \rightarrow $ 5.52
JPW	0.75	8.56	90.67	0.02
$ \rightarrow $ 2.10	$ \rightarrow $ 8.63	$ \rightarrow $ 88.81	$ \rightarrow $ 0.47
JY	5.98	5.08	1.86	87.08
$ \rightarrow $ 10.25	$ \rightarrow $ 5.61	$ \rightarrow $ 1.85	$ \rightarrow $ 82.29

Table 4-2 Japan: 1973 Q2 - 1990 Q1

JMR	JM2	JPW	JY
JMR	92.48	0.01	6.92	0.58
$ \rightarrow $ 65.25	$ \rightarrow $ 5.11	$ \rightarrow $ 25.83	$ \rightarrow $ 3.82
JM2	7.34	84.66	1.70	6.30
$ \rightarrow $ 7.15	$ \rightarrow $ 82.37	$ \rightarrow $ 3.06	$ \rightarrow $ 6.42
JPW	17.18	10.13	68.31	4.38
$ \rightarrow $ 21.43	$ \rightarrow $ 12.62	$ \rightarrow $ 60.06	$ \rightarrow $ 5.89
JY	7.26	0.25	14.08	78.41
$ \rightarrow $ 10.22	$ \rightarrow $ 0.95	$ \rightarrow $ 15.69	$ \rightarrow $ 73.14
JMR	JM2	JEX	JY
JMR	86.64	0.75	12.59	0.02
$ \rightarrow $ 55.71	$ \rightarrow $ 5.54	$ \rightarrow $ 38.53	$ \rightarrow $ 0.22
JM2	2.61	94.23	0.01	3.15
$ \rightarrow $ 2.63	$ \rightarrow $ 94.10	$ \rightarrow $ 0.12	$ \rightarrow $ 3.16
JEX	2.14	1.72	96.05	0.09
$ \rightarrow $ 2.38	$ \rightarrow $ 2.59	$ \rightarrow $ 94.80	$ \rightarrow $ 0.23
JY	12.56	0.05	0.01	87.38
$ \rightarrow $ 15.51	$ \rightarrow $ 0.52	$ \rightarrow $ 3.29	$ \rightarrow $ 80.69

JMR: Call Rate

JM2: M2+CD

JPW: Wholesale Price Index

JY: GDP at 1985 Prices

JEX: Nominal Exchange Rate (Yen/$US)

(note) The figures in the upper row are the percentage of variance in the 2nd period, and figures in the lower row are those after 20th periods.

Table 4-4 Korea: 1970 Q3 to 1979 Q4

KRDR	KRM2	KRPW	KRY
KRDR	98.54	1.13	0.24	0.09
$ \rightarrow $ 94.29	$ \rightarrow $ 3.32	2.20	$ \rightarrow $ 0.18
KRM2	1.37	93.87	4.14	0.61
$ \rightarrow $ 1.58	$ \rightarrow $ 93.31	4.36	$ \rightarrow $ 0.75
KRPW	0.34	7.79	90.34	1.53
$ \rightarrow $ 1.98	$ \rightarrow $ 9.47	87.05	$ \rightarrow $ 1.49
KRY	1.20	12.78	2.94	83.07
$ \rightarrow $ 1.24	$ \rightarrow $ 12.71	4.02	$ \rightarrow $ 82.03
KRMR	KRM2	KRPW	KRY
KRMR	95.45	2.13	2.28	0.14
$ \rightarrow $ 85.54	$ \rightarrow $ 2.34	$ \rightarrow $ 11.96	$ \rightarrow $ 0.16
KRM2	3.46	94.07	2.27	0.19
$ \rightarrow $ 5.13	$ \rightarrow $ 92.13	$ \rightarrow $ 2.45	$ \rightarrow $ 0.29
KRP	4.76	5.24	89.71	0.28
$ \rightarrow $ 11.35	$ \rightarrow $ 4.69	$ \rightarrow $ 83.69	$ \rightarrow $ 0.27
KRY	2.72	3.56	1.98	91.74
$ \rightarrow $ 3.48	$ \rightarrow $ 4.38	$ \rightarrow $ 2.63	$ \rightarrow $ 89.50

Table 4-6 Korea: 1980 Q2 to 1990 Q1

KRMR	KRM2	KREX	KRY
KRMR	97.36	2.57	0.05	0.12
$ \rightarrow $ 96.09	$ \rightarrow $ 3.47	$ \rightarrow $ 0.42	$ \rightarrow $ 0.00
KRM2	6.63	91.77	1.43	0.14
$ \rightarrow $ 8.49	$ \rightarrow $ 89.91	$ \rightarrow $ 1.42	$ \rightarrow $ 0.17
KREX	17.21	0.09	82.52	0.16
$ \rightarrow $ 26.32	$ \rightarrow $ 0.59	$ \rightarrow $ 72.96	$ \rightarrow $ 0.16
KRY	3.10	3.38	8.35	85.16
$ \rightarrow $ 4.57	$ \rightarrow $ 3.97	$ \rightarrow $ 8.44	$ \rightarrow $ 83.00
KRDR	KRM2	KRPW	KRY
KRDR	96.47	0.34	3.18	0.02
$ \rightarrow $ 90.70	$ \rightarrow $ 0.41	$ \rightarrow $ 8.88	$ \rightarrow $ 0.01
KRM2	11.73	82.71	5.56	0.00
$ \rightarrow $ 13.24	$ \rightarrow $ 81.12	$ \rightarrow $ 5.63	$ \rightarrow $ 0.01
KRPW	16.31	5.98	77.68	0.03
$ \rightarrow $ 28.55	$ \rightarrow $ 4.91	$ \rightarrow $ 66.51	$ \rightarrow $ 0.03
KRY	12.10	1.53	4.56	81.81
$ \rightarrow $ 12.73	$ \rightarrow $ 1.90	$ \rightarrow $ 5.28	$ \rightarrow $ 80.08

KRDR: Discount Rate

KRMR: Money Market Rate

KRM2: M2

KRPW: Wholesale Price Index

KREX: Nominal Exchange Rate (Won/$US)

KRY: GDP at 1985 Prices

Table 4-8 Indonesia: 1977 Q1 to 1983 Q2

IDPR	IM2	IPW	IY7
IDPR	98.22	0.19	1.47	0.12
$ \rightarrow $ 94.83	$ \rightarrow $ 0.34	$ \rightarrow $ 2.52	$ \rightarrow $ 2.31
IM2	5.16	92.97	0.60	1.27
$ \rightarrow $ 4.83	$ \rightarrow $ 82.51	$ \rightarrow $ 6.83	$ \rightarrow $ 5.82
IPW	5.66	17.25	77.08	0.01
$ \rightarrow $ 6.50	$ \rightarrow $ 20.32	$ \rightarrow $ 72.64	$ \rightarrow $ 0.54
IY7	3.73	2.36	17.05	76.86
$ \rightarrow $ 4.87	$ \rightarrow $ 8.52	$ \rightarrow $ 33.85	$ \rightarrow $ 52.75
Table 4-9 Indonesia: 1977 Q1 to 1983 Q2 (Oil Price)

IMR	IM2	OP	IY7
IMR	99.86	0.05	0.00	0.09
$ \rightarrow $ 96.45	$ \rightarrow $ 0.09	$ \rightarrow $ 2.84	$ \rightarrow $ 0.62
IM2	4.63	86.72	8.50	0.15
$ \rightarrow $ 3.74	$ \rightarrow $ 68.76	$ \rightarrow $ 27.27	$ \rightarrow $ 0.23
OP	1.76	0.20	98.01	0.02
$ \rightarrow $ 1.55	$ \rightarrow $ 0.17	$ \rightarrow $ 98.01	$ \rightarrow $ 0.26
IY7	1.67	0.15	46.81	51.37
$ \rightarrow $ 4.85	$ \rightarrow $ 0.06	$ \rightarrow $ 74.47	$ \rightarrow $ 20.62

Table 4-10 Indonesia: 1984 Q3 to 1989 Q2

IMR	IM2	IPW	IY8
IMR	93.33	5.07	1.59	0.01
$ \rightarrow $ 89.34	$ \rightarrow $ 4.63	$ \rightarrow $ 5.33	$ \rightarrow $ 0.70
IM2	0.63	83.24	15.78	0.35
$ \rightarrow $ 3.44	$ \rightarrow $ 72.96	$ \rightarrow $ 16.69	$ \rightarrow $ 6.92
IPW	8.12	29.55	51.78	10.55
$ \rightarrow $ 7.39	$ \rightarrow $ 31.07	$ \rightarrow $ 50.88	$ \rightarrow $ 10.65
IY8	28.17	9.74	8.12	53.97
$ \rightarrow $ 26.27	$ \rightarrow $ 14.27	$ \rightarrow $ 8.96	$ \rightarrow $ 50.49
Table 4-11 Indonesia: 1984 Q3 to 1989 Q2 (Oil Price)

IMR	IM2	OP	IY8
IMR	91.72	7.74	0.48	0.07
$ \rightarrow $ 91.84	$ \rightarrow $ 6.77	$ \rightarrow $ 1.31	$ \rightarrow $ 0.07
IM2	8.46	74.29	17.22	0.03
$ \rightarrow $ 8.81	$ \rightarrow $ 73.28	$ \rightarrow $ 17.51	$ \rightarrow $ 0.40
OP	14.38	19.19	65.12	1.31
$ \rightarrow $ 21.99	$ \rightarrow $ 18.96	$ \rightarrow $ 57.85	$ \rightarrow $ 1.20
IY8	13.77	9.32	26.85	50.06
$ \rightarrow $ 13.75	$ \rightarrow $ 19.34	$ \rightarrow $ 24.46	$ \rightarrow $ 42.45

IMR: Money Market Rate

IPW: Wholesale Price Index

IM2: M2

OP: Oil Price

IY7: GDP at 1973 Prices

IY8: GDP at 1983 Prices

Table 4-12 Philippines: 1982 Q3 to 1990 Q1

PHTBR	PHM2	PHPW	PHY
PHTBR	90.19	0.13	7.59	2.09
$ \rightarrow $ 41.06	$ \rightarrow $ 37.57	$ \rightarrow $ 20.06	$ \rightarrow $ 1.31
PM2	0.58	98.98	0.38	0.06
$ \rightarrow $ 1.88	$ \rightarrow $ 97.02	$ \rightarrow $ 0.98	$ \rightarrow $ 0.12
PHPW	7.18	53.88	38.18	0.76
$ \rightarrow $ 9.16	$ \rightarrow $ 58.30	$ \rightarrow $ 31.92	$ \rightarrow $ 0.62
PHY	2.50	11.36	28.28	57.87
$ \rightarrow $ 2.84	$ \rightarrow $ 13.38	$ \rightarrow $ 29.62	$ \rightarrow $ 54.16

PHTBR: Treasury Bond Rate

PHM2: M2

PHP: Wholesale Price Index

PHY: GNP at 1985 Prices
### 1. Japan

(1) Equation 4-1

Current sample: 1962:3 to 1973:1

Number of observations: 43

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -26.8044

Estimated	Standard
Variable	Coefficient	Error	t-statistic
JMREQ. JMR (-1)	.900127	.064154	14.0307
JM2 (-1)	-12.0822	8.76339	-1.37872
JPW (-1)	-8.36899	11.4180	-.732966
JY (-1)	21.0148	9.30956	2.25734
C	.804815	.760451	1.05834
JM2EQ. JMR (-1)	-.109361E-03	.113376E-02	-.096458
JM2 (-1)	.280703	.154871	1.81250
JPW (-1)	-.232457	.201784	-1.15201
JY (-1)	-.259612	.164523	-1.57797
C	.042228	.013439	3.14222
JPWEQ. JMR (-1)	.129800E-02	.897450E-03	1.44632
JM2 (-1)	.259947	.122591	2.12044
JPW (-1)	-.244403	.159726	-1.53015
JY (-1)	.012519	.130231	.096129
C	-.393954E-02	.010638	-.370330
JPYEQ. JMR (-1)	-.217886E-02	.113251E-02	-1.92392
JM2 (-1)	-.118461	.154700	-.765746
JPW (-1)	.045889	.201561	.227667
JY (-1)	.012616	.164341	.076768
C	.043349	.013424	3.22916
(2) Equation 4-2

Current sample: 1973:2 to 1990:1

Number of observations: 68

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
JMREQ. JMR (-1)	.794903	.054958	14.4637
JM2 (-1)	-10.2615	12.1704	-.843152
JPW (-1)	39.4336	10.0942	3.90657
JY (-1)	14.0934	14.1824	.993724
C	.979189	.497560	1.96798
JM2EQ. JMR (-1)	-.470657E-03	.572650E-03	-.821894
JM2 (-1)	.117429	.126812	.926007
JPW (-1)	.238106	.105178	2.26384
JY (-1)	.349625	.147776	2.36591
C	.018615	.518443E-02	3.59049
JPWEQ. JMR (-1)	.109012E-02	.695514E-03	1.56737
JM2 (-1)	.180985	.154020	1.17507
JPW (-1)	.637587	.127744	4.99111
JY (-1)	.396426	.179482	2.20872
C	-.011271	.629677E-02	-1.78999
JPYEQ. JMR (-1)	-.624704E-03	.492558E-03	-1.26828
JM2 (-1)	.058510	.109076	.536415
JPW (-1)	-.127971	.090468	-1.41455
JY (-1)	-.237564	.127108	-1.86899
C	.016539	.445933E-02	3.70895
(3) Equation 4-3

Current sample: 1973:2 to 1990:1

Number of observations: 68

Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
Variable
JMREQ. JMR (-1)	.908208	.041915	21.6678
JM2 (-1)	13.6799	10.3511	1.32159
JEX (-1)	12.6329	2.72781	4.63115
JY (-1)	-2.67720	12.8667	-.208072
C	.415205	.445497	.932004
JM2EQ. JMR (-1)	.323670E-03	.471752E-03	.686102
JM2 (-1)	.252442	.116501	2.16686
JEX (-1)	.197265E-02	.030701	.064253
JY (-1)	.237595	.144814	1.64069
C	.014242	.501405E-02	2.84036
JEXEQ. JMR (-1)	-.624733E-03	.179531E-02	-.347981
JM2 (-1)	.594092	.443358	1.33998
JEX (-1)	.423381	.116837	3.62368
JY (-1)	.154592	.551105	.280513
C	-.015821	.019082	-.829149
JPYEQ. JMR (-1)	-.105565E-02	.396360E-03	-2.66336
JM2 (-1)	-.013704	.097883	-.140006
JEX (-1)	.165666E-02	.025795	.064225
JY (-1)	-.176959	.121671	-1.45441
C	.018925	.421273E-02	4.49235
### 2. Korea

## (1) Equation 4-4

Current sample: 1970:3 to 1979:4

Number of observations: 38

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -20.2441 Log of likelihood function = 205.336

Estimated	Standard
Variable	Coefficient	Error	t-statistic
KRDREQ. KRDR (-1)	.846657	.057961	14.6075
KRM2 (-1)	4.30461	6.31179	.681996
KRP (-1)	-1.92746	4.42501	-.435584
KRY (-1)	1.37595	5.47261	.251424
C	1.71770	1.06626	1.61095
KRM2EQ. KRDR (-1)	-.148907E-02	.165630E-02	-.899033
KRM2 (-1)	-.049798	.180368	-.276090
KRPW (-1)	-.163572	.126451	-1.29356
KRY (-1)	-.079183	.156387	-.506323
C	.101572	.030470	3.33351
KRPWEQ. KRDR (-1)	-.260695E-02	.207090E-02	-1.25885
KRM2 (-1)	-.211136	.225516	-.936233
KRPW (-1)	.367667	.158103	2.32549
KRY (-1)	-.167003	.195533	-.854090
C	.079459	.038097	2.08572
KRYEQ. KRDR (-1)	-.371686E-03	.170863E-02	-.217534
KRM2 (-1)	.370827	.186067	1.99298
KRPW (-1)	-.124433	.130446	-.953905
KRY (-1)	-.110175	.161329	-.682925
C	.815030E-02	.031433	.259294
Dependent variable: KRDR
Std. error of regression = .917345
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.12080
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .334007
Dependent variable: KRM2
Std. error of regression = .026214
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.98782
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .723957
Dependent variable: KRPW
Std. error of regression = .032776
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.69365
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.03627
Dependent variable: KRY
Std. error of regression = .027043
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.22318
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.04187
## (2) Equation 4-5

Current sample: 1980:2 to 1990:1

Number of observations: 40

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
KRMREQ. KRMR (-1)	.824025	.060461	13.6291
KRM2 (-1)	-10.0336	6.50674	-1.54204
KRPW (-1)	15.4276	8.71647	1.76994
KRY (-1)	2.47105	7.22165	.342173
C	2.19152	.789869	2.77454
KRM2EQ. KRMR (-1)	.363247E-02	.152208E-02	2.38652
KRM2 (-1)	-.151215	.163805	-.923139
KRPW (-1)	-.270265	.219435	-1.23164
KRY (-1)	.056117	.181803	.308672
C	.686310E-02	.019885	.345145
KRPWEQ. KRMR (-1)	.178127E-02	.874374E-03	2.03719
KRM2 (-1)	-.107616	.094100	-1.14364
KRPW (-1)	.438884	.126056	3.48165
KRY (-1)	.040705	.104438	.389753
C	-.014848	.011423	-1.29986
KRYEQ. KRMR (-1)	-.233900E-02	.127683E-02	-1.83189
KRM2 (-1)	.171535	.137411	1.24833
KRPW (-1)	-.101731	.184077	-.552656
KRY (-1)	-.414768	.152509	-2.71963
C	.055217	.016681	3.31023
Dependent variable: KRMR
Std. error of regression = 1.01419
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.85055
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.71189
Dependent variable: KRM2
Std. error of regression = 0.025532
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.96943
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.11143
Dependent variable: KRPW
Std. error of regression = .014667
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.24643
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.72352
Dependent variable: KRY
Std. error of regression = .021418
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.15658
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.81968
## (3) Equation 4-6

Current sample: 1980:2 to 1990:1

Number of observations: 40

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
KRMREQ. KRMR (-1)	.891188	.052662	16.9229
KRM2 (-1)	-9.20701	6.76240	-1.36150
KREX (-1)	2.34348	6.26709	.373935
KY (-1)	.894441	7.57492	.118079
C	1.50486	.746764	2.01518
KRM2EQ. KRMR (-1)	.313531E-02	.127482E-02	2.45941
KRM2 (-1)	-.158983	.163702	-.971173
KREX (-1)	-.179059	.151712	-1.18026
KRY (-1)	.049661	.183372	.270823
C	.011673	.018077	.645710
KREXEQ. KRMR (-1)	.257228E-02	.883319E-03	2.91206
KRM2 (-1)	.019203	.113429	.169296
KREX (-1)	.189781	.105121	1.80536
KRY (-1)	-.036233	.127058	-.285173
C	-.030310	.012526	-2.41978
KRY. KRMR (-1)	-.291331E-02	.107212E-02	-2.71733
KRM2 (-1)	.164785	.137673	1.19693
KREX (-1)	.011243	.127589	.088115
KRY (-1)	-.397780	.154215	-2.57939
C	.061141	.015203	4.02165
Dependent variable: KRMR
Std. error of regression = 1.05650
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.73247
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .661877
Dependent variable: KRM2
Std. error of regression = 0.25575
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.11432
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.06467
Dependent variable: KREX
Std. error of regression = .017721
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.09011
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.15715
Dependent variable: KRY
Std. error of regression = .021509
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.10850
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.68911
## (4) Equation 4-7

Current sample: 1980:2 to 1990:1

Number of observations: 40

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
KRDREQ. KRDR (-1)	.742031	.080512	9.21642
KRM2 (-1)	-7.01070	7.51658	-.932698
KRPW (-1)	21.2778	12.5703	1.69270
KRY (-1)	-1.00168	8.32867	-.120269
C	1.84048	.700066	2.62901
KRM2EQ. KRDR (-1)	.456822E-02	.172174E-02	2.65325
KRM2 (-1)	-.094609	.160742	-.588576
KRPW (-1)	-.483496	.268814	-1.79862
KRY (-1)	.374868E-02	.178108	.021047
C	.017759	.014971	1.18626
KRPWEQ. KRDR (-1)	.281105E-02	.951122E-03	2.95551
KRM2 (-1)	-.077119	.088797	-.868490
KRP (-1)	.259540	.148498	1.74776
KRY (-1)	.013645	.098390	.138678
C	-.013306	.827019E-02	-1.60885
KRYEQ. KRDR (-1)	-.234201E-02	.148487E-02	-1.57725
KRM2 (-1)	.137961	.138628	.995192
KRPW (-1)	-.042958	.231833	-.185296
KRY (-1)	-.382496	.153605	-2.49013
C	.044210	.012911	3.42411
Dependent variable: KRDR
Std. error of regression = 1.17468
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.23997
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.15813
Dependent variable: KRM2
Std. error of regression = .025120
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.10426
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.56656
Dependent variable: KRPW
Std. error of regression = .013877
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.19854
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.29165
Dependent variable: KRY
Std. error of regression = .021665
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.15388
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.46917
### 3. Indonesia

## (1) Equation 4-8

Current sample: 1977:1 to 1983:2

Number of observations: 26

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -26.6994 Log of likelihood function = 232.103

Estimated	Standard
Variable	Coefficient	Error	t-statistic
IMREQ. IDPR (-1)	.605647	.088093	6.87510
IM2 (-1)	1.76444	4.73371	.372738
IPW (-1)	-6.02154	7.61341	-.790912
IY7 (-1)	8.13289	19.0877	.426080
C	2.34302	.678632	3.45257
IM2EQ. IMR (-1)	-.508736E-02	.412388E-02	-1.23364
IM2 (-1)	.264759	.221599	1.19477
IPW (-1)	.136436	.356406	.382811
IY7 (-1)	1.13748	.893551	1.27299
C	.056839	.031769	1.78916
IPWEQ. IR (-1)	-.166045E-02	.226119E-02	-.734323
IM2 (-1)	.171161	.121507	1.40866
IP (-1)	.322149	.195424	1.64847
IY (-1)	-.042433	.489950	-.086607
C	.021718	.017419	1.24675
IY7EQ. IR (-1)	.383469E-03	.445924E-03	.859943
IM2 (-1)	-.023664	.023962	-.987553
IP (-1)	.107372	.038539	2.78606
IY (-1)	.852997	.096622	8.82822
C	-.224436E-02	.343523E-02	-.653338
## (2) Equation 4-9

Current sample: 1977:1 to 1983:2

Number of observations: 26

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -23.9443	Log of likelihood function =
Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
IMREQ. IMR (-1)	.606649	.093168	6.51136
IM2 (-1)	.587406	4.58492	.128117
OP (-1)	-.136011	1.78169	-.076338
IY7 (-1)	7.94720	22.2484	.357203
C	2.23677	.674874	3.31435
IM2EQ. IMR (-1)	-.339274E-02	.409707E-02	-.828090
IM2 (-1)	.249014	.201623	1.23505
OP (-1)	.118231	.078350	1.50901
IY7 (-1)	.428893	.978376	.438372
C	.057773	.029678	1.94668
OPEQ. IMR (-1)	-.167341E-02	.010220	-.163735
IM2 (-1)	-.026250	.502951	-.052191
OP (-1)	.753893	.195446	3.85730
IY7 (-1)	-.454072	2.44057	-.186052
C	.027315	.074031	.368961
YEQ. IMR (-1)	.688816E-03	.469350E-03	1.46760
IM2 (-1)	-.010659	.023097	-.461464
OP (-1)	.024098	.897562E-02	2.68477
IY7 (-1)	.722153	.112080	6.44317
C	-.627161E-03	.339981E-02	-.184470
Dependent variable: IMR
Std. error of regression = .608165
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.99501
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .073606
Dependent variable: IM2
Std. error of regression = .026744
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.10234
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.60873
Dependent variable: OP
Std. error of regression = .066714
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.83010
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .040008
Dependent variable: IY7
Std. error of regression = .306375E-02
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.21810
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.62880
## (3) Equation 4-10

Current sample: 1984:3 to 1989:2

Number of observations: 20

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -22.6459	Log of likelihood function =
Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
IMREQ. IMR (-1)	.651790	.172158	3.78600
IM2 (-1)	-21.9805	14.1031	-1.55855
IPW (-1)	39.8632	41.9167	.951010
IY8 (-1)	-1.92016	24.9438	-.076979
C	5.04099	2.49844	2.01765
IM2EQ. IMR (-1)	.935075E-03	.241283E-02	.387542
IM2 (-1)	-.510126	.197659	-2.58084
IPW (-1)	-1.75363	.587472	-2.98505
IY8 (-1)	.153587	.349593	.439331
C	.098936	.035016	2.82544
IPWEQ. IMR (-1)	.211221E-03	.722062E-03	.292525
IM2 (-1)	.153808	.059151	2.60025
IPW (-1)	.085061	.175806	.483832
IY8 (-1)	.272763	.104619	2.60721
C	.447389E-03	.010479	.042694
IY8EQ. IMR (-1)	-.139596E-03	.150052E-02	-.093032
IM2 (-1)	.043950	.122922	.357547
IPW (-1)	-.599399	.365343	-1.64065
IY8 (-1)	-.337155	.217409	-1.55079
C	.025575	.021776	1.17443
Dependent variable: IMR
Std. error of regression = 1.88437
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.98230
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.29380
Dependent variable: IM2
Std. error of regression = 0.264100
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.57479
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.09996
Dependent variable: IPW
Std. error of regression = .790339E-02
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.60981
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 5.90256
Dependent variable: IY8
Std. error of regression = .016424
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.60020
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = .995128
## (4) Equation 4-11

Current sample: 1984:3 to 1989:2

Number of observations: 20

Schwarz Bayes. Info. Crit. = -17.2995	Log of likelihood function =
Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
IMREQ. IMR (-1)	.697872	.194693	3.58447
IM2 (-1)	-23.0223	14.3671	-1.60243
OP (-1)	-1.58770	3.48106	-.456098
IY8 (-1)	-5.96290	26.4268	-.225638
C	5.17178	2.70195	1.91409
IM2EQ. IMR (-1)	.360406E-02	.283719E-02	1.27029
IM2 (-1)	-.439590	.209367	-2.09962
OP (-1)	-.125781	.050728	-2.47951
IY8 (-1)	-.060170	.385109	-.156241
C	.030455	.039374	.773482
IPWEQ. IMR (-1)	.015921	.013780	1.15538
IM2 (-1)	1.25823	1.01686	1.23737
OP (-1)	.381013	.246378	1.54645
IY8 (-1)	1.65146	1.87041	.882940
C	-.303870	.191235	-1.58898
IY8EQ. IMR (-1)	.170574E-02	.136021E-02	1.25403
IM2 (-1)	.072968	.100375	.726953
OP (-1)	-.081860	.024320	-3.36595
IY8 (-1)	-.488023	.184629	-2.64326
C	-.010295	.018877	-.545389
Dependent variable: IMR
Std. error of regression = 1.92703
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.73677
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.01822
Dependent variable: IM2
Std. error of regression = .028082
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.47075
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.16411
Dependent variable: OP
Std. error of regression = .136389
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.60857
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 1.62594
Dependent variable: IY8
Std. error of regression = .013463
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.69666
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.92222
### 4. Philippines

Equation 4-12

Current sample: 1982:3 to 1990:1

Number of observations: 31

Log of likelihood function = 118.112

Variable	Estimated Coefficient	Standard Error	t-statistic
PHTBREQ. PHTBR (-1)	.646850	.093431	6.92326
PHM2 (-1)	-10.9542	10.4150	-1.05177
PHPW (-1)	92.9516	19.5523	4.75401
PHY (-1)	33.1530	23.6973	1.39902
C	3.82373	1.87460	2.03975
PHM2EQ. PHTBR (-1)	-.198634E-02	.197063E-02	-1.00797
PHM2 (-1)	-.026452	.219670	-.120417
PHPW (-1)	.290922	.412392	.705450
PHY (-1)	.082010	.499818	.164080
C	.075610	.039539	1.91230
PHPWEQ. PHTBR (-1)	-.748290E-03	.708785E-03	-1.05574
PHM2 (-1)	.210343	.079010	2.66225
PHPW (-1)	.694169	.148327	4.68000
PHY (-1)	.153360	.179772	.853084
C	.012281	.014221	.863563
PHY PHTBR (-1)	-.116535E-02	.769808E-03	-1.51382
PHM2 (-1)	-.090198	.085812	-1.05111
PHPW (-1)	-.139237	.161097	-.864306
PHY (-1)	-.517944	.195249	-2.65274
C	.037696	.015445	2.44057
Dependent variable: PHTBR
Std. error of regression = 3.46935
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.71810
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 7.76583
Dependent variable: PHM2
Std. error of regression = 0.73175
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.03801
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 0.389856
Dependent variable: PHPW
Std. error of regression = .026319
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.53734
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 3.78425
Dependent variable: PHY
Std. error of regression = .028585
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.11782
F-stat. (block exogeneity) = 2.02899