Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
(3) - 2 その他の外生変数の変化による影響

ここでは，主に経済の開放化に伴って付け

加わる外生変数が変化した場合の影響を，

各々の為替相場制の下で検討する。

## (3) - 2 - 1 固定為替相場制

まず，国民所得及び政府赤字の二変数が変化した場合，利子率，マネー・サプライは閉鎖経済化で検討したもの（II-1-6図，II-1-7図）と同じ方向の影響を受ける。しかし，すでに見たように，開放体系下では，必要準備の供給の利子弾力性が，大きなものとなっているので，利子率の変化幅は小さく，マネー・サプライの変化幅は大きなものとなる。

i） 経常収支の黒字化 これは二つのチャンネルを通して金融セクターに影響を及ぼす。一つは，(23)式から明らかなように必要準備の供給の増加である。もう一つは，経常収支の黒字は正味資産を増大させるので，これを通じて通貨需要の増加である。前者の影響が大きいので，利子率は下落し，マネー・サプライは増大することになる（II・1・14図）。

Ⅱ-1-13図 介入関数による反応を考慮した場合の売りオペの効果

Ⅱ - 1 - 14図 経常収支の黒字化

Ⅱ-1-15図 外国債券の期待収益率の上昇
ii）外国債券の期待収益率の上昇外国債券の期待収益率の上昇は，外国債券に対する需要を増大させ資本流出で促し，必要準備の供給は減少する。一方通貨需要も，通貨が外国債券に代替されることで減少する。この結果，マネー・サプライは減少するが，利子率が上昇するかどうかは資本流出の大きさ（ $ RESR^{S} $ のシフトの大きさ）に依存する（II-1-15図），しかし一般的には $ RESR^{S} $ のシフトの方が大きいと考えられるので利子率は上昇する。

いずれの場合にも，資本移動が完全に自由な場合には，利子率は外国のそれと等しくなるように経済が調整する。

(3) -2 - 2 变動為替相場制

まず，国民所得と政府赤字が増加した場合その国内金融に与える効果は，金融政策の効果と同様に閉鎖経済下で検討したものと等しい。またこれらの影響に加えて利子率が上昇（下落）すると同時に為替レートが高（安く）なる。

では，経常収支等の外国にかかわりのある変数が変化した場合はどうであろうか。

i） 経常収支の一時的な黒字化 経常収支の黒字化は，対外純資産の供給を増やすと同時に，正味資産を増加させる。正味資産の増加は，国内通貨と対外資産に対する需要を増大させる。この結果，自国の利子率は、上昇し，為替レートはaprieciateすると考えられるが，為替レートの変化幅は，対外純資産需要に対する正味資産の弾力性に依存する（II-1-16図）。

ii）期待為替レートの変化 為替レートが安くなるという期待が生じると自国の金融資産から外国債券への代替が生じることになる。これにより必要準備の供給は減少し需要も減少する。この時，供給の方が一般的には大きく変化すると思われるので自国の利子率は上昇することになる。一方為替レートは上記の代替行為の結果depreciateする。この大きさも期待の変化にともなう外国資産への代替の大きさに依存することになるが，自国の利子率が上昇したことがその幅を小さくしている（II-1-17図）。これと同様に外国の利子率が変化した場合も

Ⅱ - 1 - 16図 経常収支の一時的黑字化

Ⅱ - 1 - 17図 期待為替レートの変化
考えられる。

以上の分析は期待が外そう的なごく短期を分析したものであることに留意する必要がある。

## (4) 先物為替レートと内外利子率

今まで開放経済体系下の国内金融市場の動きを検討してきた。その中で，ある程度明らかになったように自国の金融市場の動きは外国の金融情勢から独立ではない。しかし外国の利子率が上昇したからといって，そのすべてが資本の流出につながり，自国の金融市場を引締まった情態にするわけではない。つまり，その緩衡帯として，先物為替市場を考えることができる。先物為替市場は，国内金融市場と資本の流出入と密接に緒びついている。そこで先物為替市場と自国および外国の利子率の相互関係を検討する。

(4) - 1 先物市場の均衡ここでは経済主体をその機能によって三つに分類し，輸出入業者（traders），裁定業者（arbitrageurs），投機業者（speculators）とする。また簡単化のために，先物相場は3ヵ月先物だけが存在し，輸出入業者は，現在契約した輸出入の実行を3ヵ月後に行ない，その時に支払いを行なう。また，その取引はすべて先物でカバーされているとする。そこで直物為替市場と先物為替市場での需給の関係についてみてみよう。

まず，直物市場では，裁定業者による超過需要が発生し，投機業者による超過供給が発生している。輸出入業者は先物力バー取引を行っているため直接的に直物市場に参加する形ではあらわれない。結局，裁定業者と投機業者の間で需給がバランスする必要がある。

次に先物市場では裁定業者が外国為替を売却し，この時，輸出入業者も貿易によって得るであろう3カ月後の純債権を売ることになる。これらの超過供給はすべて残る主体である投機業者が購入する。投機業者は先物市場で購入した外国為替を，次の期の直物市場で売却して，先物レートと直物レートの差から為替差益を得ようとする。

したがって，先物市場においては，一方で輸出入業者と裁定業者が超過供給を形成し，他方で，投機業者が超過需要を形成しているといえる。輸出入業者と裁定業者の超過供給（TA）の説明要因は，輸出契約（X），輸入契約（M），自国利子率，外国の利子率，先物プレミアムである。

$$ TA=f\left(X,M,RB,RF,f_{p}\right) $$

TAは輸出（入）契約が増大すれば増加（減少）し，自国の利子率（カバー付外国の利子率）の上昇により減少（増加）する。

次に投機業者による先物外国為替の超過需要は，投機的プレミアムと先物プレミアムの関数として表現でき

$$ S=\begin{array}{c}+\\ f\left(s_{p}\quad,\quad f_{p}\right)\end{array} $$

投機的プレミアム（先物プレミアム）の上昇は超過需要を増加（減少）させる。先物市場の均衡はこの両者が一致する点で達成される

Ⅱ-1-18図 先物市場の均衡
# Building a Competitive Economic Society

Section 1

Constructing Traffic Networks

## 1 Constructing Highways

Since the First Five-Year Road Construction Plan formulated in 1950, Japanese highways have been continually constructed. For example, the construction of national highway networks, including expressways, has provided a major impetus in the rejuvenation of regional economies by encouraging plant locations near expressway interchanges. Additionally, it has helped enhance the quality and safety of national life by making broad-area medical services accessible to rural areas and allowing broad rerouting to avoid highway disruption by natural disasters.

In the meantime, the speed of interurban transportation, an indicator of the speediness of interurban travel, tends to lag in the areas in which trunk road networks are underdeveloped. While European and U.S. freeways each have at least four lanes on average, freeways that have only one lane in either direction account for 30% or more of all freeways in Japan.

Freeways are less vulnerable to accidents involving human casualties than general highways with a probability of about 1 in 10. In addition, they have about two-thirds of the carbon dioxide emissions and about seven times more cars running per lane. Freeways are not only “safe and clean” but serve as a “path to life” in times of disaster. The MLIT is committed to firmly linking freeway networks together and promoting a framework to use them wisely.
Column

# 50th Anniversary of Tokaido Shinkansen

In October 2014, the Tokaido Shinkansen line had its 50 $ ^{th} $ anniversary of founding since it opened in 1964 between Tokyo and Shin-Osaka as a “dream superexpress train.”

Linking Japan’s three largest metropolitan zones of Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka with one another, Tokaido Shinkansen has carried as many as 56 billion passengers during the following 50 years, escalating people’s opportunities for exchanges to make for further national economic advances and broader spheres of national livelihood as a lifeblood system of rapid transport.

Tokaido Shinkansen started out with two services an hour or 60 services a day but grew to offer a maximum of 15 services a day or 324 a day. Its maximum speed also advanced from 200 km/hour in its initial days of opening to 285 km/hour, trimming the time to travel between Tokyo and Shin-Osaka from 4 hours to 2 hours 22 minutes at the shortest for faster transit and better convenience (train schedules revised in March 2015).

Furthermore, Tokaido Shinkansen has not only suffered a single instance of passenger death accidents but also boats of excellent records of safety and punctuality, with its average delays held to less than 1 minute, despite its extremely tight train service schedules of 15 services an hour. It is also characterized by extremely low carbon dioxide emissions when compared with other means of transport.

The growth of Tokaido Shinkansen has influenced the subsequent development of other New Shinkansen lines. In the wake of Tokaido Shikansen, the Sanyo, Tohoku, Joetsu, Hokuriku (Nagano) and Kyushu Shikansen lines have been developed in sequence. Among them, Hokuriku Shinkansen line (between Nagano and Kanazawa) came into service on March 14, 2015. Hokkaido Shinkansen (between Shin-Aomori and Shin-Hakodate Hokuto) is scheduled to follow suit at the end of FY2015, when the nation will be united as one by Shinkansen lines, from Hokkaido down to Kyushu.

The Hokkaido Shinkansen line (between Shin-Hakodate Hokuto and Sapporo) is scheduled to complete and open five years ahead of the end of FY2035 as originally scheduled, the Hokuriku Sinkansen line (between Kanazawa and Tsuruga) three years ahead of the end of FY2025 as originally scheduled. In the meantime, the completion and opening schedules of the Kyushu Shinkansen line (between Takeo Spa and Nagasaki) will be moved up from FY2022 to the extent possible.

The nation’s network of Shinkansen lines promises a further leap as the construction of the Chuo Shinkansen line (between Tokyo and Nagoya) running on a superconducting maglev method of train operation started in December 2014.

Coin made in commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the opening of Shinkansen

0-Series Shinkansen, Mt. Fuji and cherry blossoms

Source) Ministry of Finance

0-Series Shinkansen (in rainbow color)

(2) Driving technical development

a. Superconducting maglev trains

Running tests for superconducting maglev trains had been carried out on the Yamanashi Test Line since 1997. The Superconducting Magnetic Levitation Technological Practicality Evaluation Committee that met in July 2009 concluded
that the “development of the technologies prerequisite to driving superconducting maglev trains to the stage of practical usefulness, including their operation as super-fast mass transit system, are in sight.” Since August 2013, a running test has been in progress on the entire Yamanashi Maglev Test Line to make a final verification of the practical specifications of the cars, propulsion coils and more.

### b. Free Gauge trains

Technological development of free gauge trains capable of through operation from Shinkansen railway line to conventional railway line and vice versa is underway for completion scheduled for service on Kyushu Shinkansen and Hokuriku Shinkansen. Efforts started in FY2014 will be carried forward to drive technological development for verifying the durability of free gauge trains on the Kyushu Shinkansen (Nagasaki route). In addition, technological development activity meant to address snow hazards (snow and cold resistance) will get into full swing for running on the Hokuriku Shinkansen.

## 3 Constructing Aviation Networks

The Basic Policy Committee, Aviation Group, Transport Policy Council had explored the future directions of Japan’s aviation in recurring sessions of discussions since October 2012 and finally came up with a report in June 2014. The report sets forth mid- and long-term directions in the three areas of aviation: laying a firm ground for building an aviation network, building an enhanced aviation network and developing aviation demand, and providing quality aviation and airport services.

## (1) Expanding aviation networks

### a. Enhancing metropolitan airports functionalities

To beef up Japan’s competitiveness in the global arenas of business and tourism, enhancements to the functions of the metropolitan airports, a prime impetus to propel Japan’s growth, are contemplated. Annual total number of arrival and departure slots at Tokyo International Airport and Narita International Airport to 750,000 has been achieved in March 2015.

Additions to the international passenger terminal building at Tokyo International Airport (Haneda) elevated the number of boarding/alighting slots on the international lines by 30,000 to 450,000 a year from March 2014, allowing around-the-clock deployment of long-haul Asian routes and high-demand business routes bound for the U.S. and Europe. In December of the same year, an extension to Runway C was commissioned into service. Efforts will continue to develop an international and domestic line connecting tunnel to augment the international and domestic line transit functionality.

Source) MLIT

Figure II-6-1-5 Trend in Number of Passengers and Number of Arrivals and Departures at Tokyo International Airport

(Note) End of FY2013 Source) MLIT
Narita international Airport realized 300 thousand arrival and departure slots a year in March 2015 thanks to the development, etc. of an LCC terminal. Efforts will continue to consolidate its position as a hub airport in Asia by making further enhancements to the network of international and domestic airlines, including LCCs.

Even after the attainment of 750,000 arrival and departure slots, approaches will still be underway to build up the functionalities of the metropolitan airports, including their competitiveness, deliver the potentials of global growth to Local Areas, realize the governmental goal of 20 million foreign visitors to Japan and stay best prepared for the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Technical discussions had been held at a committee composed of scholars and experts to explore ways to enhance the functionalities of the metropolitan airports. The committee came up with an interim report in July 2014, stating, above anything, that the number of arrival and departure slots could be increased by as many as 79 thousand by 2020 by reviewing runway operations and flight routes at Haneda International Airport, boosting the control functionalities of Narita International Airport and so on. Subsequently, a council composed of representatives of the local public entities concerned, airlines and the

Source) MLIT

Figure II-6-1-7 Trend in Number of Passengers and Number of Arrivals and Departures at Narita International Airport

like was set up in August of the same year to embark on continuing consultation with the parties concerned.

### b. Driving the Open Skies strategically

The Ministry has strategically pursued the Open Skies Note $ ^{1} $ , including metropolitan airports, to respond to changes in the competitive climate resulting from global trends towards air services liberalization while accommodating vigorous economic leaps in Asian and other overseas nations. Open Skies with a total of 27 nations and regions $ ^{2} $ were realized by March 2015. Discussions with ASEAN started in October 2014 with a view to concluding an air service agreement between Japan and ASEAN.
Approaches to enhancing the convenience of business jet passengers at Narita Airport

(1) A new access route constructed between the business jet parking spot and the dedicated business jet terminal has trimmed the time needed to travel between the spot and terminal (from about 16 minutes to about 8 minutes).

(2) An additional spot accessible to business jets constructed in an area near the dedicated business jet terminal could offer a further cut in the travel time (from about 8 minutes to about 5 minutes).

(1) Effective September 30, 2014, a dedicated business jet traffic line has been commissioned into service, with one spot before the international passenger terminal allotted to business jets on a priority basis, to cut the time spent by business jet users traveling within the airport by about 30 minutes.

(2) Fully integrated security and privacy assurance from the terminal car approach to the aircraft side

## (3) Constructing air traffic system

### a. Building a new air traffic systems

In FY2010, air traffic experts from the industrial, academic and governmental sectors formulated a long-term vision for future air traffic systems as CARATS (Collaborative Actions for Renovative Air Traffic Systems) with a view to realizing a globally interoperable air traffic systems and addressing increases in long-term demand for air traffic capacity and diversified needs for. Studies are underway to make this vision come true in conjunction with the ICAO’s Global Air Navigation Plan (GANP).

Specifically, the possible installation and deployment of high-standard area navigation (RNAV) and RNAV for small aircraft have been debated in order to cut flight duration and fuel consumption by shortening flight path and to achieve further improvement of the flying rate through relaxing the landing limit imposed due to the land features and weather conditions. In addition, plans on how to optimize the order and time of aircraft arrivals and departures and how to mitigate delay on the ground have been explored in an integrated manner to make effective use of limited resources, such as airport runways and arrival and departure slots, and provided added punctuality. New networks for sharing air traffic information around the world are also being probed.
### b. Pursuing enhancing metropolitan airport capacities

As continual effort directed at expanding the capacities of the metropolitan airports and airspaces, a yearly arrival/departure capacity of 447 thousand times was achieved at Tokyo International Airport (Haneda) in March 2014. At Narita International Airport as well, simultaneous parallel departure procedure has been introduced since October 2011 to enhance annual capacity without expanding noise-impacted zone and achieved a yearly capacity of 300,000 arrivals/departures in March, 2015 with the two runways currently in service by the familiarization with this method of aircraft operation and deployment of equipment which can monitor aircrafts with high precision.

Specific studies will proceed towards to pursue further functional enhancements to the metropolitan airports.

## (4) Strategic promotion of international aviation measures

The Asia-Pacific region is considered to grow into the world’s largest aviation market before not too long. In the circumstances, what is of strategic importance to Japan is not only to contribute to strengthening of the aviation networks in this region but also to actively capture the impetus of the emerging countries in which numerous aviation projects are in progress.

Because unified public and private approaches are essential to winning orders, efforts have been made to collect information and consolidate bilateral ties at the primary initiative of the Council for the International Deployment of Aviation Infrastructures.

Activities in FY2014 include conducting a top sales campaign in Mongol (April 2014) and holding a business seminar in the Philippines (February 2015).

## 4 Facilitating Traffic Access to Airports

Plans are presently being pursued to construct the Downtown Through Line to directly connect the center of Tokyo to the metropolitan airports to allow transfer-free swift travel, which will make Tokyo International Airport (Haneda) and Narita International Airport more readily accessible to downtown Tokyo and consolidate the location competitiveness of the center of Tokyo, thereby facilitating the attraction of global businesses into Tokyo and revitalizing the Japan’s economy.

In addition, ways to improve access to Kansai International Airport have been surveyed and explored.
## (2) Railway vehicle industry

The volume of newly built railway vehicles by value moved flatwise for domestic shipment and varied depending on the status of orders for overseas shipment. Production by value in FY2013 stood at 192.6 billion yen (1,692 vehicles), 80% (154.2 billion yen) of which was domestic-bound and 20.0% (38.4 billion yen) was export-bound, former rising 2.9% over FY2012 and the latter 10.7% over FY2012.

Production of railway vehicle parts (such as power generators and bogies) was 252.4 billion yen by value, that of signal protection devices (such as automatic train control devices and electrical interlocking devices) was 132.5 billion yen.

Rolling stock builders and others are working to develop rolling stocks that fill diverse social needs, such as speed, safety, passenger comfort, low noise and being barrier-free, by partnering with railway operators and also to set up and even expand local production and service sites in the U.S., U.K. and elsewhere with the recent order taking for overseas projects as an impetus.

## Trends in Motor Truck Transport Business and Measures

## (1) Passenger vehicle transport business

### a. Motor bus business

Demand for motor bus transportation, which is represented by the number of passengers carried and operating revenues, remained on the decline in pace with changes in the urban structure, such as a hollowing of the central area of a city, and increased ownership of private cars with the progress of motorization. While business activity remains sluggish, the climate surrounding the motor bus business remains extremely harsh.

(Notes) 1 Numeric data above has been collected from the bus operators who own a fleet at least 30 motor buses. The parenthesized value for each fiscal year denotes the total number of bus operators who own a fleet at least 30 buses for that fiscal year.

2 The number of passengers carried in the three major metropolitan areas is an aggregate total for Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Aichi, Mie, Gifu, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo.
### b. Chartered bus business

Since deregulations in February 2000, the chartered bus business has sponsored low-cost, diversified bus tours in its effort to deliver better user services, but competition is stiffening with increase in the population of operators in play. Further, as group tours continue to get downsized and travel goods are lower-priced, transportation revenues have been declining. In addition, upsurges in the fuel charges continue to toughen the business climate surrounding the chartered bus business.

On the basis of the discussions at the Review Panel on the Future of the Bus Service that met in the wake of the April 2012 Kanetsu Expressway rapid tour bus

accident, the Rapid and Chartered Bus Safety and Confidence Recovery Plan was worked out to carry on two-year efforts intended to add to the safety of rapid and chartered buses in FY2013 and FY2014.

### c. Taxi business

As for the taxi business, amendments to the “Act on Special Measures Concerning Rationalization and Revitalization of General Passenger Vehicle Transportation Businesses in Designated Districts” enforced in October 2009 were passed as a lawmaker-initiated legislation at the 185th extraordinary session of the Diet in 2013 to upgrade the drivers’ working conditions, enhance the level of taxi services and so on, and came into effect in January 2014.

The MLIT seeks to resolve the problems of the oversupply of taxes and upgrade services and safety on the basis of statutory regulations and collateral resolutions made at both Houses of the Diet.

## (2) Replacement driver service

The replacement driver service is used as an alternate means of transport for drunken drivers. As of the end of December 2014, 8,890 replacement driver service providers are in operation. Keen to add to further soundness of the replacement driver service, the MLIT has formulated “Measures for Making the Replacement Driver Service More Sound for Added Safety and Security” in collaboration with the National Police Agency in March 2012 as part of its continuing effort to drive various relevant measures.
## Trends in Maritime Industries and Measures

## (1) Achieving stable marine transportation

### a. Achieving Japanese-flagged vessels and Japanese seafarers

As Japan is a nation with limited resources surrounded by the sea in all its sides, international shipping, which depends on 99.7% of the Japan's trade, plays a significant role to its industrial infrastructure, lifeline for Japanese economy and national life. Japanese-flagged vessels and seafarers over which Japan has regal jurisdiction are necessary to maintain at a certain level at all times because of requiring economic security assurance, but rooting cost competitions of international trade, those have been decreased to the amount gradually.

Dealing with the situation, the MLIT has set forward intentional increasing in Japanese-flagged vessels and Japanese seafarers through the tonnage tax system Note to those operators who are allowed under the Japanese-flagged vessels and Japanese Seafarers Securing Plan based on the Marine Transportation Law since 2008.

Consequently, Japanese vessels and Japanese seafarers has been turned into increasing. On the other hand, causing the terrible Great East Japan Earthquake and the nuclear power plant accident, the significance of economic security assurance through Japanese merchant

Figure II-6-3-6

Number of Japanese Seafarers Aboard International Vessels, Japanese Merchant Fleet

fleets have been rising more than before.

Among of the situation, the amended Marine Transportation Law came into force in September 2012, establishing a “deemed-Japanese-flagged vessel” system. The deemed-Japanese-flagged vessel means a foreign-flagged vessel operated by Japanese shipping firm and owned by their overseas subsidiaries which can change its flag to Japan immediately in case of issuing the “Order to Engage in Voyage” based on Marine Transportation Law. “Deemed-Japanese-flagged vessel” has been added to the objective of vessels which applied the tonnage tax system since April 2013.

Japan will promote to support the increased Japanese-flagged vessels and secure the deemed-Japanese-flagged vessels to perform a complementary role of Japanese-flagged vessels.

### b. Acquiring and fostering seafarers (Seamen)

Acquiring and fostering Japanese ship’s seafarers, human resources of marine transportation, is of essential importance to boosting Japan’s economy and maintaining and upgrading national life. Yet, the number of Japanese overseas ship