Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
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## 附 錄

新短期経済予測モデル

暫定版（昭和53年12月15日）

## はじめに

この新短期経済予測モデルの暫定版（昭和53年12月15日）は，53年夏発表の新SNAに基づく国民所得統計の改訂に伴って，それまでの短期経済予測モデルSP－18の再推計を行ったものである。暫定版のため未発表であったが，参考に附するためここに発表することにした。

馬場 孝一・新保 生二・加藤 裕己

大平 純彦・前田 大蔵・新居 玄武

## I 新短期経済予測モデル方程式体系

## (1) 構造方程式

推定期間：昭和41年度から昭和51年度（44・四半期）

（ただし，デフレータ関係については昭和42年度から昭和51年度）

推定法：直接最小自乗法（OLS）

構造方程式における記号は以下の通り。

$\overline{R}^{2}$：自由度修正済決定係数

$s$：標準誤差

$d$：ダービン・ワトソン比

（）内 $t$ 值

$\Delta X = X - X_{-1}$

$\sum_{i=1}^{j} = X_{-i} + X_{-i} - 1 + \cdots + X_{-j}$

(1) 民間最終消費支出

$C = 1196.09 + 0.226295 (YD/PC \times 100) - 0.530793 \left( \frac{\Delta PC}{PC_{-1}} \times \frac{YD}{PC} \times 100 \right)$

(31.4) (5.43) (5.61) (5.61)

$+ 0.714960 C_{-1}$

(12.2)

$\overline{R}^{2} = 0.998 \quad s = 433.07 \quad d = 1.55$

(2) 家計飲食費支出

$ln CF = 2.37093 + 0.574589 ln C - 0.444528 ln (PCF/PC \times 100) + 0.329027 ln CF_{-1}$

(6.33) (7.82) (4.47) (3.80)

$\overline{R}^{2} = 0.997 \quad s = 0.01 \quad d = 1.22$

(3) 民間住宅投資

$IH = 4381.20 - 8.79449 (PH/PC \times 100)_{-1} + 0.127447 \frac{1}{2} + \sum_{0}^{1} (YD/PC \times 100) - 642.640 I_{-1}$

(5.79) (1.17) (34.04) (20) (10.32)

$\overline{R}^{2} = 0.972 \quad s = 234.80 \quad d = 1.22$
(4) 民間企業設備投資

$$ \begin{aligned}IP=&1260.158+0.391789\left(\sum_{1}^{4}(V+M)/4\right)-0.149185\left(\sum_{2}^{3}KP/2\right)\\&-485.944\left(\sum_{0}^{3}I/4\right)\\\end{aligned} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{*}=0.952\quad s=626.30\quad d=0.53 $$

(5) 民間在庫投資

$$ JP=-17201.3+0.146459V_{-1}-0.567028KJP_{-2}+18741.9(PJ/PJ_{-1})_{-1}\atop(3.85)\quad(5.86)\quad(6.50)\quad(4.10) $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.586\quad s=588.2\quad d=1.75 $$

(6) 財貨輸出

$$ \begin{aligned}lnEC=&-0.991185+\frac{2}{\sum_{0}}w_{i}ln\Big(\frac{PEC\times EX}{PEIW}\Big)+1.66660lnTWM+0.581333ln(KJP/V)\\&i=0\quad-0.297948(6.17)\\&1\quad-0.397264(6.17)\\&2\quad-0.297948(6.17)\\&SUM\quad-0.993161\end{aligned} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{*}=0.986\quad s=0.047\quad d=1.07 $$

(7) 財貨輸入

$$ \begin{array}{c}MC=-170.957+0.939290(MCR+MCF+MCM)\ $ 1.07)\qquad(43.35)\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.978\quad s=296.7\quad d=0.58 $$

(8) 原燃料通関輸入

$$ \begin{array}{r l r}&{}&{l n M C R=1.51673+0.362306l n(O+O_{-1})+0.114456l n(O/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}O)+0.607258l n M C R_{1}}\\ &{}&{(4.97)\quad(3.11)}\\ &{}&{}\\ &{}&{\quad\overline{{R}}^{*}=0.985\quad s=0.032\quad d=1.7\mathrm{~;~}}\end{array} $$

(9) 食料品通関輸入

$$ lnMCF=-2.18832+0.432095lnCF+0.722062lnMCF_{-1}\atop(1.90)\quad(2.23)\quad(6.42) $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.936\quad s=0.082\quad d=2.09 $$

(10) 加工製品通関輸入

$$ \begin{aligned}lnMCM=&-8.54003+0.529909ln(IP+JP)+0.986717ln(V+M-IP-JP)\\&\begin{array}{cc}(14.54)&(6.44)\\ \end{array}(13.03)\\&-\sum_{0}^{3}w_{i}ln\left(PEIW/EX/PJ\right)\\&i=0-0.536011(2.74)\\&\quad1-0.623650(4.97)\\&\quad2-0.443283(3.63)\\&\quad3-0.175278(0.91)\\&SUM\quad-1.77822\end{aligned} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{*}=0.964\quad s=0.068\quad d=1.10 $$
(11) 名目サービス輸入・海外への要素所得

$$ \begin{array}{c c c c}{{{MO^{\prime}=-216.736+0.0784678MC^{\prime}+0.00735703V^{\prime}+0.498254MO^{\prime}_{-1}}}}&{{{(3.18)}}}&{{{(5.30)}}}&{{{(3.54)}}}&{{{(6.46)}}}\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.994\quad s=110.0\quad d=2.22 $$

$$ \begin{aligned}(12)\quad& 民間最終消費支出デフレータ \\P C/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}P C=&0.0688215+0.275628P J/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}P J+0.131039\left(\frac{W}{W/L}/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}\left(W/L\frac{V}{L}\right)\right)_{-1}\\&+0.335769(P C/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}P C)_{-1}\\&\quad(4.10)\end{aligned} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{\sharp}=0.948\quad s=0.002\quad d=2.36 $$

(13) 政府最終消費支出デフレータ

$$ PCG\frac{4}{\sum PCG}=-0.0914199+0.966511W\frac{4}{\sum W}+0.362863PC\frac{4}{\sum PC} $$

(14) 民間住宅投資デフレータ

$$ PH/\sum\limits_{1}^{4}PH=-0.0972514+0.404161(PH/\sum\limits_{1}^{4}PH)\\
+0.208460((IH+IP+IG)/\sum\limits_{1}^{4}(IH+IP+IG))_{-1}\\
+0.229709(IH/(IH+IP+IG))+0.594783(PH/\sum\limits_{1}^{4}PH)_{-1}\\
\overline{R}^{2}=0.843\quad s=0.005\quad d=1.17 $$

(15) 民間企業設備投資デフレータ

$$ \begin{array}{c}lnPI=0.154943+0.706084lnPJ+0.0369348ln(IP+IG)+0.181259lnPI_{-1}\ $ 2.13)\quad(8.76)\quad(4.67)\quad(1.95)\end{array} $$

$$ \begin{array}{l}(16)\quad 公的固定資本形成デフレ一夕 \\lnPIG=-0.587563+0.864166lnPI+0.118843lnW+0.145746lnPIG_{ 1}\ $ 8.93)\quad(15.67)\quad(11.52)\quad(2.76)\end{array} $$

(17) 民間在庫デフレータ

$$ \begin{aligned}PJ/\sum\limits_{1}^{4}PJ=&0.135372+(0.426377PMCI\sum\limits_{1}^{4}PMC+0.175629\left(\left(W/\frac{V}{L}\right)/\sum\limits_{1}^{4}\left(W/\frac{V}{L}\right)\right)-1\\=&-0.141286((JKP/O)/\sum\limits_{1}^{4}(KJP/O))-1\end{aligned} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{*}=0.925\quad s=0.004\quad d=1.54 $$

(18) 財貨輸出デフレータ

$$ \begin{array}{r l}&{P E C/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}P E C=0.0858900+0.840079(P J/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}P J)}\\ &{\quad+(2.83)\qquad(12.51)}\\ &{\quad+0.234087((P E I W/E X)/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}P E I W/E S))-1}\\ &{\quad-(3.70)}\\ &{\quad-0.239573(E X/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}E X)-0.000204577(K J P/O)}\\ &{\quad(3.28)}\\ &{\quad(5.59)}\\ &{\quad\overline{{R}}^{*}=0.980\quad s=0.004\quad d=1.06}\end{array} $$
(19) サービス輸出・海外からの要素所得デフレータ

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.991\quad s=2.27\quad d=1.45 $$

(20) 鉱工業生産指数

$$ lnO=-\underset{}{(43.39)}{\overset{8.56281}{\underset{}{(43.39)}}}+\underset{}{(27.41)}{\overset{2.23172}{\underset{}{(27.41)}}}ln\underset{}{(V+M)}{\overset{2}{\underset{}{(0)}}}-\underset{}{(15.91)}{\overset{3}{\underset{}{(15.91)}}}ln\underset{}{(V+M)}{\overset{3}{\underset{}{(15.91)}}}KJP $$

$$ \overline{R}^{\prime}=0.990\quad s=0.026\quad d=1.24 $$

(21) 稼働率指数

$$ \begin{aligned}lnROU=&-5.79900+0.312345lnO-0.551222ln\left(\left(\frac{1}{4}\sum_{1}^{4}\frac{1}{ROW}\frac{V+M}{KP}\right)KP\right)\\&+1.21091lnMH\\&(7.19)\end{aligned} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.968\quad s=0.017\quad d=1.04 $$

(22) 男子労働力人口

$$ NLM=66.6598\quad+0.277391\quad NM+11.8575\quad VA+0.637604\quad NLM_{-1}\atop(2.16)\quad(2.81)\quad(2.37)\quad(5.15) $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.996\quad s=8.544\quad d=1.88 $$

(23) 女子労働力率

$$ \begin{aligned}lnRNLF&=-0.323645-0.00136928T+0.0113930lnVA\\&\quad(3.39)\quad(3.23)\quad(2.17)\\&+0.0556113\left(\left(\left(\frac{HOM-HOM_{-1}}{HOM_{-1}}\right)+\left(\frac{HOM+HOM_{-1}}{HOM_{-1}}\right)_{-1}\right)/2\right)\\&+0.511572lnRNLF_{-1}\\&\quad(3.52)\end{aligned} $$

$$ \begin{aligned}(24)\quad 失業者数 \quad&R\\U=&23.9204-0.000174087V-87.8758\left(\frac{PJ-PJ_{-1}}{PJ_{-1}}\right)+0.158245W+0.593403U_{-1}\\&(3.39)\quad(1.85)\quad(2.83)\quad(4.00)\quad(6.45)\\&\overline{R}^{2}=0.955\quad s=3.702\quad d=2.16\end{aligned} $$

(25) 男子雇用者数

$$ \begin{aligned}25)\quad 勇于雇用者数 &lnLWM=&0.708617+0.0142068\left(\left(\left(\frac{HOM-HOM_{-1}}{HOM_{-1}}\right)+\left(\frac{HOM+HOM_{-1}}{HOM_{-1}}\right)_{-1}\right)/2\right)\\&&+0.0409053ln((V+V_{-1})/2)_{-1}+0.849581lnLWM_{-1}\\&&(3.78)\quad(23.4)\end{aligned} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.979\quad s=0.011\quad d=2.03 $$

(26) 女子雇用者数

$$ \begin{aligned}lnLWF=&2.04045+0.0726126\Biggl(\Biggl(\biggl(\frac{HOM-HOM_{-1}}{HOM_{-1}}\Biggr)+\biggl(\frac{HOM-HOM_{-1}}{HOM_{-1}}\Biggr)_{-1}\Biggr)/2\Biggr)\\&+0.145997ln((V+V_{-1})/2)_{-1}+0.475311lnLWF_{-1}\\&(3.59)\quad(3.33)\\&\overline{R}^{2}=0.979\quad s=0.011\quad d=2.03\end{aligned} $$
(27) 総実労働時間指数

$$ \begin{aligned}lnMH=&2.64939+0.0316915lnV+0.765654lnMH_{-1}\\&(2.68)\quad(2.30)\quad(8.74)\\&+0.0105202((lnMH_{-1})\times\left(\frac{HOM-HOM_{-1}}{HOM_{-1}}\right)+\left(\frac{HOM-HOM_{-1}}{HOM_{-1}}\right)_{-1}\Big)/2\\&(4.35)\\&\quad\overline{R}^{2}=0.922\quad s=0.011\quad d=2.29\end{aligned} $$

(28) 有効求人求職倍率

$$ \begin{array}{l}lnVA=-2.44089-0.261761lnV+0.399296lnV+0.567442ln\left(HOM/\sum\limits_{0}^{2}HOM\right)\\ \quad(1.91)\quad(3.51)\quad(2.82)\quad(8.89)\\ \quad+0.956251lnVA_{1}\\ \quad(25.03)\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{*}=0.985\quad s=0.041\quad d=1.33 $$

(29) 一人当り時間当り雇用者所得

$$ \begin{aligned}(29)\quad 一人当 \quad& 時間当 \quad 雇用者所得 \\WH/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}WH=&-0.0317356+1.15551(PC/\underset{1}{\overset{4}{\sum}}PC)_{-1}\\&+(1.74)\quad(14.81)\\&+0.00100986((YC+AC)/(Y+A)\times100)_{-4}-0.00954623(1/VA)\\&(3.99)\\&\overline{R}=0.923\quad s=0.003\quad d=2.24\end{aligned} $$

$$ \begin{aligned}(30)\quad 一人当り個人企業者所得 \\WU=&42.6997+0.660736W+1.50971(PC-PC_{-1})-28.1417UR\\&(9.64)\quad(24.46)\quad(3.13)\quad(5.83)\\&\overline{R}^{2}=0.987\quad s=4.30\quad d=1.45\end{aligned} $$

$$ \begin{array}{l}(31)\quad 一人当 \emptyset 所定外労働時間指数 ( 製造業 )\\\quad lnHOM=14.1164+0.557586lnV+0.985200ln\left(ROU\frac{\frac{4}{1}}{1}ROU\right)-2.20122lnLW-1\\\quad\quad\quad\quad(8.91)\quad\quad\quad\quad(6.84)\quad\quad\quad\quad(14.60)\\\quad\quad\quad\quad+0.775352lnHOM-1\\\quad\quad\quad\quad(35.53)\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{*}=0.993\quad s=0.021\quad d=1.57 $$

$$ \begin{aligned}(32)\quad& 家計利子賃貸料 \cdot 対家計民間非営利団体財産所得 \\&YRH=-54.0487+0.00404675(I\times M2S)+0.664296YRH_{-1}\\&\quad(0.65)\quad(4.98)\quad(8.91)\\&\quad\overline{R}^{2}=0.995\quad s=264.1\quad d=2.20\end{aligned} $$

$$ \begin{aligned}(33)\quad 家計配当 \quad&DI=49.2895+0.0141024(YC+AC)+0.928794\frac{1}{4}\sum_{1}^{4}DI\\&(0.85)\quad(2.54)\quad(20.65)\quad\frac{1}{4}\sum_{1}^{4}DI\\&\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\overline{R}^{*}=0.939\quad s=123.55\quad d=1.02\end{aligned} $$

$$ \begin{aligned}(34)\quad& 民間法人企業所得 \ ( 家計配当控除前 )\\YC+AC&=-2280.31+0.534682V^{\prime}-0.612770YW-0.02886361(I\times KPN)_{-1}\\&\quad(3.16)\quad(13.49)\quad(7.97)\quad(5.97)\\&\quad+581889\Delta PJ\\&\quad(9.02)\end{aligned} $$
(35) 民間在庫品評価調整額

$$ AP=\begin{array}{c}-36.2013+1.09825(\Delta PJ\times(\frac{1}{8}JP+KJP_{-1})/100\times4\\ (0.44)\quad(42.49)\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.977\quad s=475.38\quad d=2.59 $$

$$ \begin{array}{c}(36)\quad 民間法人企業在庫品評価調整額 \\AC{=}165.105{+}0.821787AP\ $ 1.83)\quad(31.93)\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.959\quad s=525.90\quad d=1.95 $$

(37) 民間法人企業税および罰金

$$ \begin{array}{c}TC=-143.793+0.172137(R\ 1\times(YC+AC-DI)R\ 2\times DI)+0.890971TC_{-1}\ $ 1.18)\quad(4.96)\quad(29.90)\\\overline{R}^{2}=0.975\quad s=310.00\quad d=2.47\\\end{array} $$

(38) 個人税および罰金・強制手数料

$$ TP+TPS=-\underset{(6.39)}{\overset{985.074}{(6.39)}}+\underset{(60.74)}{0.127344}\Big(\frac{1}{4}\underset{0}{\overset{3}{\sum}}(YW+YU+A(U+YR)) $$

$$ \overline{R}^{\sharp}=0.988\quad s=462.87\quad d=0.63 $$

$$ \begin{array}{c}(39)\quad 間接税 \\ln TI=-2.21012+0.715292ln V^{\prime}+0.309554ln M\ $ 18.64)\quad(15.62)\quad(4.96)\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.996\quad s=0.030\quad d=2.31 $$

$$ \begin{array}{c}(40)\quad コール \cdot レート \\IC=5.30114+1.46130IN-1.47468I+0.621065IC_{ Ⅰ }\ $ 7.58)\quad(20.87)\quad(10.97)\quad(14.73)\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.990\quad s=0.229\quad d=1.14 $$

$$ \begin{array}{l}(41)\quad 全国銀行貸出約定平均金利 \\\quad\varDelta I{=}0.000852411{+}0.174850\varDelta IN{+}0.235931\varDelta IN_{-1}{+}0.0738656\varDelta IN_{-2}\\\quad(0.10)\quad(6.24)\quad(6.54)\quad(2.01)\\\quad+0.0721257\varDelta IN_{-3}\\\quad(2.51)\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.932\quad s=0.056\quad d=1.28 $$

$$ \begin{array}{l}(42)\quad 銀行貸出增減 \\LF=805.463+1.36492MQ+0.457580(LN-DN)_{-2}-454.174(IC-I)_{-1}\ $ 1.24)\quad(16.09)\quad(3.60)\\\quad(2.76)\\\quad\overline{R}^{2}=0.858\quad s=1727.24\quad d=1.64\end{array} $$

$$ \begin{array}{l}(43)\quad 現金通貨残高 \\MCCS/P=-9.38285+0.0870820YD/PC+0.1253750O\\\quad(8.29)\quad(17.39)\quad(4.17)\\\quad\overline{R}^{2}=0.985\quad s=1.69\quad d=0.65\end{array} $$

$$ \begin{array}{l}(44)\quad 純通貨 ( 定期性預金 ) 增減 \\M Q=93.7569+0.0999377S P+0.380878L F+0.196690M Q_{-1}\ $ 0.22)\quad(3.12)\quad(3.74)\quad(1.12)\end{array} $$

$$ \overline{R}^{2}=0.872\quad s=1127.95\quad d=2.00 $$

$$ \begin{array}{l}(45)\quad 預金通貨增減 \\MD=-352.463+0.627799LF-0.397575MQ-0.322507(LN-DN)\\\quad(0.74)\quad(6.04)\quad(2.67)\quad(3.63)\\\quad\overline{R}^{2}=0.662\quad s=1270.64\quad d=1.84\end{array} $$
(2) 定義式

(1) 名目民間最終消費支出

$ C' = C \times PC / 100 $

(2) 実質政府最終消費支出

$ CG=CG^{\prime}/PCG \times 100 $

(4) 名目民間企業設備投資

$ IP' = IP \times PI / 100 $

(5) 実質公的固定資本形成

$ IG=IG^{\prime}/PIG \times 100 $

(7) 名目公的在庫投資

$ JG'=(KJG \times PJG - KJG_{-1} \times PJG_{-1})/100 \times 4 - AG $

(8) 输出等

$ E=EC+EO $

(9) 名目輸出等

$ E' = EC' + EO' $

(10) 輸出等デフレータ

$ PE=E^{\prime}/E\times100 $

(11) 名目財貨輸出

$ EC' = EC \times PEC / 100 $

(12) サービス輸出・海外からの要素所得

$ EO=EO^{\prime}/PEO \times 100 $

(13) 输入等

$ M=MC+MO $

(14) 名目输入等

$ M^{\prime}=MC^{\prime}+MO^{\prime} $

(15) 輸入等デフレータ

$ PM=M^{\prime}/M \times 100 $

(16) 名目財貨輸入

$ MC' = MC \times PMC / 100 $

(17) サービス輸入・海外への要素所得

$ MO=MO^{\prime}/PMO \times 100 $

(18) 国民総生産

$ V=C+CG+IH+IP+IG+JP+JG+E-M $

(19) 名目国民総生産

$ V^{\prime}=C^{\prime}+CG^{\prime}+IH^{\prime}+IP^{\prime}+IG^{\prime}+JP^{\prime}+JG^{\prime}+E^{\prime}-M^{\prime} $

(20) GNPデフレータ

$ P=V^{\prime}/V\times100 $
(21) 労働力人口

$ NL=NLF+NLM $

(22) 男子労働力率

$ RNLM=NLM/NM $

(23) 女子労働力人口

$ NLF=RNLF \times NF $

(26) 個人企業者數（含：家族從業者）

(27) 一人当り総実労働時間指数（製造業）

HM=MH/LW

(28) 一人当り所定内労働時間指数（製造業）

$ HSM=1.07645 \times HM-0.07645HOM $

(29) 完全失業率

$ UR=U/NL\times100 $

$$ W=WH\times HM $$

(31) 雇用者所得

$ YW=W \times LW / 10 $

$$ YU=WU\times LU/10 $$

$$ YR=YRH+DI $$

(34) 個人可処分所得

$ YD = YW + YR + YU + BSS + SAG - TP - CSS - TRP $

(35) 国民所得

$$ Y = YW + YU + YRH + YC + YG $$

(36) 在庫品評価調整額

$$ =AP+AG $$

(37) 個人企業在庫品評価調整額

$ AU=AP-AC $

(38) 民間在庫ストック

$ KJP=KJP_{-1}+JP/4 $

(39) 公的在庫ストック

$ KJG=KJG_{-1}+JG/4 $

(40) 租税総額

$ TAX = TP + TC + TI $
(41) 国内需要

$ VD=V+M-E $

(42) 統計上の不突合

$ SD=V'-D-TI+SB-Y $

(43) 固定资本减耗

$ D=DP+DH+DG $

(44) 民間企業固定資本減耗

$ DP=\alpha DP \times KPN_{-1} \times 4 $

(45) 民間住宅固定資本減耗

$ DH=\alpha DH \times KHN_{-1} \times 4 $

(46) 民間企業粗資本ストック

$ KP=KP_{-1}+(IP-R)/4 $

(47) 民間企業純資本ストック

$ KPN=KPN_{-1}+(IP'-DP)/4 $

(48) 民間純住宅ストック

$ KHN=KHN_{-1}+(IH'-DH)/4 $

(49) 個人貯蓄

SP=YD-C

(50) 個人貯蓄累積額

$ SSP=SSP_{-1}+SP/4 $

(51) 民間法人企業貯蓄

SC=YC-TC-DI-TRC

(52) 民間法人企業貯蓄累積額

$ SSC=SSC_{-1}+SC/4 $

(53) 公的貯蓄

$ SG=(TAX+YG+CSS)-(CG^{\prime}+SB+BSS+SAG+TRG) $

$$ 公的 \begin{aligned} バランス \end{aligned} $$

$$ BG=(SG+DG)-(IG^{\prime}+JG^{\prime}) $$

$$ BA=E-M $$

(56) 経常海外余剰（ドル建・名目）

$ BA.D=(E^{\prime}-M^{\prime})\times EX/36 $

(57) 国民経常余剰

$ BNC=E^{\prime}-M^{\prime}+TRA $

(58) 海外からのその他の純経常移転

$ TRA=-TRP-TRC-TRG $

(59) 海外に対する債券の純増

$ BC=BNC+TRAC $

(60) 経常収支（ドル建）

$ BC.D=BC\times EX/36 $
附 錄

(61) 対外金融資産の純増

$ FA=BC+FL $

(62) 現金通貨増減

$ MCC=(MCCS-MCCS_{-1})\times4 $

(63) 預金通貨残高

$ MDS=MDS_{-1}+MD/4 $

(65) 通貨（M1）残高

$ M1S=M1S_{-1}+M1/4 $

(66) 準通貨残高

$$ MQS = MQS_{-1} + MQ / 4 $$

(67) マネー・サプライ（M2）増減

$ M2 = MCC + MD + MQ $

(68) マネー・サプライ（M2）残高

$ M2S=M2S_{-1}+M2/4 $

変 数 記 号 表

$ ^{*} $ は外生変数，丸は原系列その他は季節調整済

記 号	名 称	単 位
A	在庫品評価調整額	時価 10億円
AC	民間法人企業在庫品評価調整額	"
* AG	公的企業 "	"
AP	民間 "	"
AU	個人企業 "	"
BA	海外経常余剰(円建・実質)	45年価格,10億円
BA.D	" (ドル建・名目)	時価 億ドル
BC	海外に対する債券の純増	時価 10億円
BC.D	経常収支	時価 億ドル
BG	公的バランス	時価 10億円
BNC	国民経常余剰	"
* BSS	社会保障給付	"
C	民間最終消費支出(実質)	45年価格,10億円
C"	" (名目)	時価 10億円
CF	家計飲食費	45年価格,10億円
CG	政府最終消費支出(実質)	"
CG"	" (名目)	時価 10億円
* CSS	社会保障負担	"
D	固定資本減耗	"
* DG	公的 "	"
DH	民間住宅 "	"
DI	家計配当	"
* DN	日銀預り金増減	"
DP	民間企業固定資本減耗	"
* D451	異常値ダミー	45年4～6月=1 他は0
* D452	"	45年7～9月=1 他は0