Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
表6-1 規模の経済性の指標測定結果

産業分類	OLS	操作変数法	利益率	マークアップ率(操作変数法による)	馬場(1995)の操作変数による結果
規模の経済性指標	標準偏差	規模の経済性指標	標準偏差	規模の経済性指標	標準偏差	規模の経済性指標	利益率	規模の経済性指標
食料品	0.479	0.110	***	0.543	0.119	***	0.067	0.581	0.688	***	0.070
繊維	0.677	0.149	***	0.884	0.342	***	-0.057	0.836	0.259	-0.019
パルプ・紙	1.194	0.084	***	1.299	0.089	***	0.050	1.367	1.475	***	0.027
化学	1.266	0.073	***	1.275	0.097	***	0.108	1.429	0.571	0.062
石油・石炭	0.609	0.148	***	0.788	0.677	0.077	0.855	0.124	0.046
窯業・土石	1.297	0.085	***	1.346	0.094	***	0.095	1.486	1.230	*	0.028
一次金属	1.406	0.115	***	1.633	0.113	***	0.033	1.688	1.370	***	0.040
金属製品	1.296	0.065	***	1.366	0.102	***	0.067	1.464	1.576	***	0.016
一般機械	1.248	0.085	***	1.247	0.117	***	0.073	1.345	1.097	***	0.049
電気機械	1.172	0.044	***	1.280	0.102	***	0.101	1.425	1.247	***	0.066
輸送機械	0.943	0.104	***	0.912	0.166	***	0.012	0.924	1.237	***	0.030
精密機械	1.381	0.082	***	1.498	0.121	***	0.062	1.597	2.072	***	0.017
その他の製造業	1.145	0.074	***	1.265	0.087	***	0.042	1.320	1.082	***	0.068
農林水産業	0.704	0.174	***	1.347	1.232	-0.045	1.289	0.593	0.108
鉱業	0.732	0.121	***	1.059	0.244	***	0.144	1.237	1.440	**	0.135
建設業	1.293	0.072	***	1.373	0.047	***	0.063	1.466	1.027	***	0.113
電気・ガス・水道	0.442	0.170	***	1.553	0.874	*	-0.060	1.466	0.998	***	-0.024
卸売・小売	0.600	0.298	**	0.540	0.447	0.049	0.567	2.016	***	0.143
金融・保険	1.077	0.230	***	1.249	0.450	***	0.239	1.642	2.061	*	0.220
不動産	0.391	0.223	*	0.776	0.253	***	-0.118	0.694	0.550	0.562
運輸・通信	0.792	0.225	***	1.811	0.719	**	-0.147	1.579	1.126	-0.034
サービス(公務除く)	0.432	0.234	*	1.528	0.449	***	-0.064	1.437	0.922	***	0.147

注 $ ^{1} $ ）1*, **, ***:10%, 5%, 1%水準で有意 2) 操作変数として経済全体GDPと防衛費成長率を用いた 3) 馬場(1995)の研究の分析期間1972年から1992年までである
### 6.3 既存研究との比較

規模の経済性を日本の産業別に推計した代表的な既存研究として馬場(1995)、張(2001)、中島・吉岡(1989)等がある。またここでもマークアップと同様に馬場(1995)の推計結果は表6-1に報告している。馬場(1995)の研究は、使用された操作変数が異なるのみで、他の推計方法は全く我々と同じである。推計結果を比較して見ると、輸送機械、サービス、電気・ガス・水道を除けば大体我々と同じ結果となっている。この3つの産業では、我々の研究とは規模の経済性の有無が逆になっている。張(2001)は短期費用関数の推計することにより日本の産業別規模の弾力性を計測している。彼は食料品以外のすべての日本製造業で大きな規模の経済性が存在していることを示した。彼の研究で規模の弾力性が一番高い産業は化学で1.41、低い産業は食料品で0.55である。この範囲は我々の推計結果と一致している。

中島・吉岡(1989)の分析対象期間は1964年－1982年である。彼らの研究では繊維産業が規模の不経済性を示しているが、食料品、化学、金属製品、一般機械、電気機械、輸送機械、精密機械では規模に関する弾力性が1を超えていることを示した。この結果も我々の推計結果と整合的であるものと考えられる。

Nakajima, Nakajima and Yoshioka (1998) の工業統計表における 1964 年から 1988 年までの規模別データを用いて規模の経済性を推計した研究においても、繊維産業以外の産業で規模に関する弾力性が 1 より大きいことを見出している。

既存研究を含めて我々の研究は日本の産業では規模の経済性が存在していることを確認している。規模の経済性を考慮しないままに技術進歩率の代理変数である TFP 上昇率の推計を行うと上方バイアスが発生する。張(2001)の研究では1994年－1995年における規模の経済性を含めて修正した TFP 上昇率は通常の TFP 上昇率の約半分になっていることを示している。

### 7. 結論

本稿の前半で議論したデータと計測方法の比較から、Fukao, Inui, Kawai and Miyagawa (2003) による JIP データベースによる推計は、労働や資本の質の変化に関して十分な注意を払われ作成されていることから、現時点では最も正確な 1990 年代における TFP 上昇率 $ ^{37} $ が推計されているものと考えられる。しかし、先述のとおり、非製造業の労働インプットの伸び率が過大推計されている可能性が考えられ、これにより TFP 上昇率の推計に下方バイアスがかかっているものと推察される。

また表 7-1 では、新古典派的な想定による TFP 上昇率に加えて、当該論文後半部で検討したマークアップ率（Roger の方法による）の影響を除いた TFP 上昇率、規模の経済の影響を除いた TFP 上昇率、労働の質、稼働率の影響を考慮にいた TFP 上昇率をそれぞれ、1980 年代（1983-1991 年）、1990 年代（1991-1998 年）について計算した。ここでの結果にみられ
るとおり、規模の経済のケースを除くと、他の3つのケースでは1990年代のTFP上昇率は低下している $ ^{38} $ 。製造業、非製造業別にみると、1990年代において製造業でのTFP上昇率の低下幅が非製造業に比して大きい（労働の質、稼働率の影響を考慮にいたTFPのケースでは、TFPはむしろ非製造業は上昇している）。ただ、全てのケースに関して、TFP上昇率の低下幅は0.2%～0.5%の範囲に留まっており、1990年代はTFP上昇率の低下をみたとしても、その低下幅はHayashi and Prescott（2002）、内閣府(2001、2002)等が指摘する低下幅に比べ小さいものと考えられる。また、規模の経済を考慮にいた際には、1990年代のTFP上昇率（修正ソロー残差）はKawamoto(2004)の研究では下がっていないし、我々の研究ではむしろ上昇していたものになっている点については十分留意すべきである。すなわち、我々の研究あるいは日本の既存研究では規模の経済があると指摘されており、規模の経済を考慮に入れていないTFP上昇率（修正ソロー残差）の研究はバイアスが生じている可能性が高く、今後当該問題に関する一層の研究の蓄積が望まれる $ ^{39} $ 。

表7－1 JIPデータベースを使用したTFP上昇率の推計（単位：%）

産業	製造業	非製造業
コストシェアによる成長会計
1983－1991	0.47	0.80	0.15
1991－1998	0.02	0.25	0.09
レベニューシェアによる成長会計
1983－1991	0.52	1.08	0.05
1991－1998	0.04	0.04	0.04
マークアップ率を考慮した場合（レベニューシェア）
1983－1991	0.97	1.25	0.45
1991－1998	0.57	0.25	0.32
規模の経済を考慮した場合（コストシェア）
1983－1991	-0.59	-0.11	-0.99
1991－1998	-0.18	0.09	-0.34
労働の質と資本稼働率考慮した場合（コストシェア）
1983－1991	0.18	0.66	-0.23
1991－1998	0.02	0.11	0.07

（注）政府サービス、対家計民間非営利サービス及び帰属家賃部門を除いた推計である
## 参考文献

鎌田康一郎・増田宗人「マクロ生産関数に基づくわが国のGDP ギャップー統計の計測誤差が与える影響ー」2000，日本銀行調査統計局 Working Paper Series 00-14.

清水谷諭・寺井晃「デフレ期待と実質資本コストーミクロデータによる90年代の設備投資関数の推計ー」『経済分析』2003, vol171, pp.85-107.

張 星源 「稼働率内生型モデルによる TFP 成長率の計測」『経済研究』2001, vol52, pp.359-366.

仲田雄作 「全要素生産性(TFP)の理論と計測方法について」『経済統計研究』1989, vol 17, pp49-87.

中村洋一『SNA 統計入門』日本経済新聞社, 1999.

内閣府『経済財政白書－改革なくして成長なし』，2001.

内閣府『経済財政白書－改革なくして成長なしⅡ－』,2002.

中島隆信・粕谷宗久・オ田友美・種村知樹「セクター別生産性変化の分析と構造変化の検証」2001，日本銀行調査統計局 Working Paper Series 01-14.

中島隆信『日本経済の生産性分析』東洋経済新報社,2001.

中島隆信・吉岡完治「TFPの上昇要因分解」『三田商学研究』1989, vol32, pp.58-84.

中西泰夫・乾友彦「サービス産業の生産性と研究開発・IT・規制」宮川努編『産業空洞化と日本経済』日本経済研究センター，2003.

西村清彦『価格革命のマクロ経済学』日本経済新聞社,1996.

西村清彦・峰滝和典『情報技術革新と日本経済－「ニュー・エコノミー」の幻を超えて』有斐閣, 2004.

服部恒明・宮崎浩伸「産業別の技術進歩率の計測と経済成長の要因分析－1970年代後半以降の実証研究－」『電力経済研究』2000, vol44, pp.1-16.

林文夫 「構造改革なくして成長なし」 岩田規久男・宮川努編『失われた10年の真因は何か』東洋経済新報社,2003.

馬場直彦「内外価格差の発生要因について」『金融研究』1995, vol14, pp.71－97.

樋口美雄、中島隆信、中東雅樹、日野健「財政支出の推移と地域雇用」『フィナンシャル・レビュー』2003, vol67, pp.120-149.

深尾京司・宮川努、河井啓希、乾友彦ほか「産業別生産性と経済成長：1970-98年」『経済分析』2003, vol170.

深尾京司・権赫旭「日本の生産性と経済成長：産業レベル・企業レベルデータによる実証分析」『経済研究』2004, vol55, pp.261-281.

増田宗人 「資本ストック統計の見方－市場評価資本ストックの試算－」日本銀行調査統計局 2000, Working Paper Series 00-5.

松岡幹裕 「日本経済が直面するもう1つのSARS」『エコノミクス』 2003, Deutsche Bank Group.
宮川努「失われた10年」と産業構造の転換」、岩田規久男・宮川努編『失われた10年の真因は何か』東洋経済新報社,2003.

宮川努・伊藤由樹子・原田信行「産業別IT投資と産業間の波及効果」『情報化と企業行動』日本経済研究センター,2000.

宮川努・真木和彦「GDPギャップ計測の課題と新たな方向性」日本銀行調査統計局 2001, Working Paper Series 01-15.

吉川洋・松本和幸「Ⅲ．日米経済－1980年代と1990年代」『フィナンシャル・レビュー』2001, vol58, pp.3-17.

Baily, M. “Productivity Growth and Material Use in US Manufacturing,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 1986, 101, pp.185-196.

Basu, S. “Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare,” American Economic Review 1995, 85, pp.512-531.

Basu, S. “Procyclical Productivity Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 1996, 111, pp.719-751.

Basu, S. and J. G. Fernald “Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications,” Journal of Political Economy 1997, 105, pp249-283.

Basu, S. and J. G. Fernald “Aggregate Productivity and Aggregate Technology,” European Economic Review 2002, 46, pp.963-991.

Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, and S. Rebelo “Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle,” Journal of Political Economy 1993, 101, pp.245-273.

Burno, M. “Raw Materials, Profits and Productivity Slowdown,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 1984, 99, pp.197-200.

Carlsson, M. “Measures of Technology and the Short-run Response to Technology Shocks,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2003, 105, pp. 555-579.

Domar, E. “On the Measurement of Technological Change,” Economic Journal 1961, 71, pp.709-729.

Fukao, K, T. Inui, H. Kawai, T. Miyagawa “Sectoral Productivity and Economic Growth in Japan,1970-98:An Empirical Analysis Based on the JIP Database,” ESRI Discussion Paper no. 68, 2003.

Griliches, Z. "Introduction," in Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, edited by Zvi Griliches, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1992.

Hall, R. "The relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy 1988, 96, pp921-947.

Hall, R. “Invariance Properties of Solow’s Productivity Residuals,” in Growth / Productivity / Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Bob Solow’s Birthday, edited by Peter Diamond, Cambridge, Mass: MIT press, 1990.
Hayashi, F. and E. Prescott “The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade,” Review of Economic Dynamics 2002, 5, pp.206-235

Hulten, C. “Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs,” Review of Economic Studies 1978, 45, pp.511-518.

Jorgenson, D and K. Motohashi “Economic Growth of Japan and the United States in the Information Age,” RIETI Discussion Paper Series 03-E-015, 2003.

Jorgenson, D. and K. Stiroh “Industry-level Productivity and Competitiveness Between Canada and the United States,” American Economic Review 2000, 90, pp.161-167.

Kawamoto, Takuji “What Do the Purified Solow Residuals Tell Us about Japan’s Lost Decade?,” Bank of Japan IMES Discussion Paper Series 2004, no.2004-E-5, Bank of Japan, Tokyo.

Laitner, J. and D. Stolyarv “Aggregate Returns to Scale and Embodied Technical Change: Theory and Measurement Using Stock Market Data,” Journal of Monetary Economics 2004, 55, pp.191-233.

McLachlan, R., C. Clark, and I. Monday “Australia’s Service Sector: A Study in Diversity,” Productivity Commission Staff Research Paper, AusInfo, Canberra, 2002.

Nakajima, T., M. Nakajima and K. Yoshioka "An Index Number Method For Estimating Scale Economies and Technical Progress Using Time Series of Cross-section Data: Sourcing of Total Factor Productivity Growth for Japanese Manufacturing, 1964-1988," Japanese Economic Review, 1998, 49, pp310-334.

Norrbin, S. “The Relation Between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry: A Contradiction,” Journal of Political Economy 1993, 101, pp. 1149-1164.

Nishimura, K., Y. Ohkusa, and K. Ariga “Estimating the Mark-up over Marginal Cost: a Panel Analysis of Japanese Firms 1971-1994,” International Journal of Industrial Organization 1999, 17, pp.1077-1111.

OECD Measuring Productivity OECD Manual, Measurement of Aggregate and Industry-level Productivity Growth, 2001.

Oliveira Martins, J., S. Scarpetta, and D. Pilat “Mark-up Ratios in Manufacturing Industries: Estimates for 14 OECD Countries,” Economics Department Working Paper no.162. OECD, 1996.

Roeger, W. “Can Imperfect Competition Explain the Difference between Primal and Dual Productivity Measures? Estimates for US Manufacturing,” Journal of Political Economy 1995, 103, pp.316-330.

Schreyer, P. “The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries,” STI Working paper 2000/2, OECD, 2000.

Takahashi, Y. and Makino, T. “Labor Input Data of the JIP Database, “ Hitotsubashi University Research Unit for Statistical Analysis in Social Sciences: A 21^{st}-Century COE Program,
Discussion Paper Series, no.28, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, 2004.

Van Biesebroeck “Robustness of Productivity Estimates,” NBER Working Paper, no.10303, 2004.

Wolff, E “The Productivity Paradox: Evidence from Indirect Indicators of Service Sector Productivity Growth,” Canadian Journal of Economics 1999, 32, pp.281-308.
WHITE PAPER ON LAND, INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND TOURISM IN JAPAN, 2007

(Outline)

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
## WHITE PAPER ON LAND, INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND TOURISM IN JAPAN, 2007 (Outline)

## Preface

Chapter 1 Global warming and Public Life in Japan.....3
(1) Present state and future projection of global warming
(2) Effect of global warming on public life
(3) Measures required in daily life

Chapter 2 Issues Concerning the Mitigation of Global Warming in Daily Life .....10
(1) Issues in the transport sector to mitigate global warming
I. Issues concerning reducing $ CO_{2} $ emissions in domestic transportation
II. Reducing $ CO_{2} $ emissions from international transport
(2) Easing global warming in the housing and construction industries
(3) Challenges concerning easing global warming in the development of cities and regions

Chapter 3 The Direction of the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Policy in the Global Warming Era.....30
(1) Observation and prediction of climate change caused by global warming
(2) Activity to adapt to the effects of climate change
(3) Activities to achieve the goals of the Kyoto Protocol

## Part II Trends in MLIT policies

Chapter 1: New MLIT Policies Accommodating the Needs of the Times.....34

Chapter 2: Realizing a Tourism-based Country of Beauty.....37

Chapter 3: Promoting Regional Revitalization.....40

Chapter 4: Setting the Stage for Independent and Vibrant Life.....44

Chapter 5: Forging an Open Economic Society with a Competitive Edge.....48

Chapter 6: Building a Safe and Peaceful Society.....53

Chapter 7: Creating and Conserving a Beautiful and Favorable Environment.....58

Chapter 8: International Partnership and Contribution for the Nation’s Sustainable Development.....63

Chapter 9: Use of ICT Technology and Promotion of Technical R&D.....64
## Preface

While global warming is an issue of worldwide scale, it is at the same time an immediate issue closely related to public life in Japan. The emissions of carbon dioxide, one of the causes of global warming, has increased as our life has become more affluent. Furthermore, it is feared that climate change caused by global warming may lead to an increase in the occurrences of natural disasters and seriously affect public life.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, responsible for the areas of administration closely related to our everyday life through residence and community development, the maintenance of transportation networks, disaster prevention and the provision of meteorological information and also information on global warming, is fully promoting measures to cope with global warming.

In Part I of this White Paper, by taking up the theme of “Global Warming in Progress and Public Life in Japan,” we have tried to plainly demonstrate the effect of global warming on public life in Japan as well as identify issues concerning the counter measures to be taken in public life. From the viewpoint of putting the measures against global warming into practice on a long-term basis, emphasis is being placed on the measures to enable a lifestyle that, without sacrificing quality, is as friendly to the global environment as possible.

In Part II, trends in the fields of the MLIT’s policies are reported in terms of their respective political issues.
Part I

# Global Warming in Progress and Public Life in Japan

~ Development of MLIT Policies toward

Measures against Global Warming ~
## Chapter 1 Global Warming and Public Life in Japan

## (1) Present state and future projection of global warming

## ○State of global warming on a global basis

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global mean temperature has risen by $ 0.74^{\circ} $ C in the last 100 years. The Panel has shown multiple projections of surface temperatures. For example, the global temperature is expected to rise by another $ 4.0^{\circ} $ C during the next 100 years in the scenario with the largest volume of greenhouse gas emissions and by another $ 1.8^{\circ} $ C even in the scenario with the smallest volume of emissions, leading to the conclusion that the rise in global average temperature cannot be avoided in either of the scenarios.

Projections of Surface Temperature in the 2000–2100 Period Based on the Scenarios for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Note: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report shows following six scenarios.

A1: Society of very rapid economic growth (A1F1: fossil energy intensive, A1T: non-fossil energy intensive, A1B: balance-across-all resources intensive) A2: Heterogeneous society, B1: Society of sustainable growth, B2: Society of regional coexistence Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

## ○State of global warming in Japan

According to the observation data of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the annual mean surface temperature in Japan has risen by $ 1.07^{\circ} $ C in the last 100 years. The annual mean surface temperature in Japan 100 years from now is projected to be 2 to $ 3^{\circ} $ C higher than present. The temperature increase is projected to be larger in higher latitudes and larger in winter than in summer.

Source: “Global Warming Projection Vol.6,” Japan Meteorological Agency, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Japan
## (2) Effect of global warming on public life

## ○ Increasing risk of flood and sediment related disasters

## (A country that is vulnerable to flood and sediment related disasters)

With approximately 70% of its total area occupied by mountainous regions and hilly terrain, Japan’s land area is the site of considerable volcanic and seismologic activity and is also vulnerable to typhoons and heavy rain. Furthermore, it is easily affected by flooding, as approximately one half of the total population and three quarters of the total assets are concentrated in about 10% of the total area, which would be below water level if rivers overflowed.

An increasing number of areas have become more vulnerable to sediment related disasters because of residential area developments. As a result of the geological weakness, an average of about 1,000 cases of sediment related disasters occur in Japan each year, the number of which has been increasing in recent years in comparison.

Changes in the number of sediment related disasters

## (Increasing Heavy Rainfall)

Flood and sediment related disasters are caused by concentrated downpours and other heavy rain. Rainfall measurements in the last 30 years reveal that the number of heavy rainfall with daily precipitation exceeding 200 mm has been increasing. A projection made by the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that in comparison between the present and 100 years from now, the annual number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 200 mm a day will increase in almost all areas of Japan and that the maximum daily precipitation (the volume of rainfall of the day with the largest daily precipitation in a year) will increase by 10 to 30% in a large number of areas.

Long-term trend of heavy rainfall analyzed using AMeDAS data (1976–2006)

Change of Number of Days

with Daily Precipitation Exceeding 200 mm

(Difference between averages in 2081-2100 and in 1981-2100)

(Future increase of flood and sediment related disaster risk owing to the increase in concentrated downpours)

Fluctuation in rainfall affects the flood safety level of rivers. The Arakawa River, for example, is maintained to attain a flood
safety level (1/200) capable of coping with rainfall that could happen only once every 200 years. In the Kanto area, however, the maximum daily rainfall is expected to increase by 10% in 100 years from now and the flood safety level at that time will be lowered to 1/120. Furthermore, with respect to sediment related disasters, occurrences of disasters outside of the sediment related disaster hazard areas, an increase in the volume of sediment as well as an expansion of the areas where there is a fear of reaching by debris flow.

Effects of Fluctuation in Rainfall 100 Years from Now on the Flood Safety Level of the Arakawa River

1	Hokkaido	1.24
2	Tohoku	1.22
3	Kanto	1.11
4	Hokuriku	1.14
5	Chubu	1.06
6	Kinki	1.07
7	Southern Kii	1.13
8	San-in	1.11
9	Setouchi	1.10
10	Southern Shikoku	1.11
11	Kyushu	1.07

Note:

The prospective future rainfall has been obtained by applying the quotient (median) of $ (2080 - 2099 \text{ Average}) / (1979 - 1998 \text{ Average}) $ . Safety level 1/200 is the level calculated from the annual maximum daily rainfall of the respective research points derived using the climate model GCM20 (IPCC's A1B scenario) with the calculation area covering the entire globe.

Notes:

• Flood maintenance capable of coping with rainfall that could happen only once every 200 years.

• Trial calculation of variation of the currently targeted safety level (1/200) and currently secured safety level (1/30) in the situation where the rainfall is increased by 10% in Arakawa River. (Maintenance to be performed in the future is not considered.)

On the other hand, the Central Disaster Prevention Council calculates that if the Arakawa River were to burst its banks, in the worst case, the central part of the Tokyo metropolitan area could be affected.

Floods Envisioned in the Case of the Arakawa River Bursting its Banks

Extent of floods due to burst banks	Including floods due to overflow of the river
Flooded area (ha)	5,300	12,000
Flooded population (people)	710,000	1,300,000
Inundation above floor level (households)	310,000	480,000
Inundation below floor level (households)	12,000	82,000

Note: Projected flood damage based on the assumption of the Arakawa River's right bank bursting at the 21.0km point (Point ✗ at Iwabuchi, Kita-ku,

Tokyo) in a scale of overflowing water that is likely to happen only once every 200 years.

Source: Expert Panel on Measures against Large Scale Floods, Central Disaster Prevention Council (published in October 2007)

## ○ Increasing risk of drought

Looking at the fluctuation in the rainfall in Japan reveals that the gaps between the years with a larger amount of precipitation
and those with a smaller amount of precipitation tend to widen. As the range of fluctuation in annual rainfall is projected to continue to increase, the risk of drought as well as that of floods are considered to become higher.

Transition in Annual Rainfall (1900~2006)

Source: Compiled from the materials of the Japan Meteorological Agency, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Japan

## ○ Increasing Risk of Tidal Wave Disaster

Furthermore, snowfall is expected to decrease especially in the areas along the Japan Sea as the warming continues. The volume of water from melted snow and rainfall put together reaching the land surface may possibly decrease, particularly in spring, and dams may become dry if rainfall after spring is not sufficient.

The increasing risk of drought coupled with a rise in temperature may possibly affect food production and the state of land use in our country. Also, there is concern that a rise in the temperature of enclosed waters, including lakes, resulting from drought and global warming, will cause deterioration of their water quality.

Comparison of Water Volume of the 1st Grade Water System Reaching the Land Surface in the Present (1979–1998) and Future (2080–2099) Periods during Spring (March–June)

Source: “Water Resources in Japan, 2007,” Ministry of Land Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Japan

## ○ Increasing risk of strom surge disaster

According to IPCC, the sea level in the last decade of the 21st century (2090–2099) is projected to exceed the average sea
level of the period from 1980 to 1999 by up to 59cm.

On the other hand, the Japan Meteorological Agency reports that near-20-year (bidecadal) variation dominates the sea level variation around Japan for the last 100 years. Since the middle of the 1980s, however, the sea level has continued to rise and in 2004 reached a level 71 mm higher than the average of the period from 1971 to 2000, marking the highest level since 1960.

Transition in Global Average Sea Level

Source: Report of Working Group I in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

An analysis by study groups including those of the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency has revealed that while the number of developing tropical cyclones was projected to decrease by 30% on a global average in the future, extremely intense tropical cyclones with a maximum wind speed of over 45m/s were projected to develop more frequently.

Projected Annual Average Number of Global Tropical Cyclones Organized by Their Intensity (Maximum Wind Speed)

Source: Compiled from “Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20km-mesh global atmospheric model: Frequency and wind intensity analysis” J. Meteor. Soc. Japan Vol.84, pp. 259-276 (2006) by Ouchi et al.

The rise in sea level and increasing strength of the tropical cyclones as mentioned above will result in an increased risk of storm surge disasters. Assuming the sea level rises by 59cm, the area and population of sea-level areas of the three major bays of Japan will increase by about 50%. Simulation of a Muroto-class typhoon striking the metropolitan area in such a situation shows