Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
(Color T.V.)

(1,000)

1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
Thailand	430	500	700	840	900
Malaysia	125	150	200	250	310
Singapore $ ^{*} $	830	850	890	910	940
Indonesia	284	207	410	428	500
Total	1,669	1,707	2,200	2,428	2,650

$ ^{*} $ A tourist demand is included.

(V.T.R)

(1,000)

1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
Thailand	120	140	170	200	250
Malaysia	35	40	60	80	100
Singapore $ ^{*} $	552	515	494	546	560
Indonesia	15	20	25	64	70
Total	722	715	749	890	980

$ ^{*} $ A tourist demand is included.

(Video Camera)

(1,000)

1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
Thailand	2	2	3	5	8
Malaysia	5	11	13	15	17
Singapore $ ^{*} $	37	54	79	85	138
Indonesia	0	0	0	0	1
Total	44	67	95	105	164

* A tourist demand is included.

( V.D.Player)

(1,000)

1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
Thailand	0	0	1	2	5
Malaysia	0	0	0	1	11
Singapore $ ^{*} $	0	0	10	18	61
Indonesia	0	0	0	0	6
Total	0	0	11	21	83

$ ^{*} $ A tourist demand is included.

“A Market Trend of Household Electronics in ASEAN” Electronic Industries Association of Japan
Table : 3 Investment Flow in Asia-Pacific Area

Host Countries	YEAR	Investing Countries	(Mn$)
U.S.A.	JAPAN	NIEs	TOTAL
Malaysia	1986	7(3.3)	23(11.1)	48(23.7)	203(100)
1988	96(12.6)	214(27.9)	271(35.3)	768(100)
1990	69(3.0)	657(28.5)	1100(47.8)	2302(100)
Thailand	1986	41(7.0)	251(43.3)	91(15.7)	579(100)
1988	673(10.8)	3063(49.0)	1709(27.4)	6249(100)
1990	1091(7.7)	2706(19.2)	8794(62.2)	14128(100)
Philippine	1986	22(28.7)	22(28.5)	8(10.2)	78(100)
1988	153(32.3)	96(20.2)	140(29.7)	437(100)
1990	59(6.2)	306(31.8)	384(39.9)	961(100)
Indonesia	1986	128(16.0)	325(40.6)	84(10.5)	800(100)
1988	731(16.6)	256(5.8)	1530(34.7)	4409(100)
1990	153(1.7)	2241(25.6)	2598(29.7)	8750(100)
S. Korea	1986	125(35.4)	138(38.9)	16(4.5)	354(100)
1988	284(22.2)	696(54.3)	15(1.2)	1283(100)
1990	317(39.5)	235(29.3)	21(2.6)	803(100)
Taiwan	1986	138(19.5)	254(36.0)	65(9.2)	706(100)
1988	135(12.7)	432(40.7)	129(12.2)	1061(100)
1990	540(25.9)	827(39.7)	247(11.9)	2082(100)
Singapore	1986	204(37.3)	226(41.3)	n.a	547(100)
1988	291(35.3)	344(41.7)	n.a	824(100)
1990	582(47.6)	391(32.0)	n.a	1223(100)
China	1986	326(14.5)	263(11.7)	1342(59.8)	2244(100)
1988	236(7.4)	515(16.1)	2123(66.5)	3194(100)
1990	284(8.4)	356(10.5)	2162(63.7)	3393(100)

SOURCE : JETRO
## Table:4 Definition of Electric Machinery of Table 5 - Table 12

$$ T.V.SET $$

$$ HS Code.No $$

$$ 8528- $$

$$ CCCN Code No. $$

$$ 8515\bullet21- $$

$$ \begin{aligned}&SITC No.\\&724-1-\end{aligned} $$

VTR

$$ 8521- $$

$$ 9211-3- $$

RADIO

$$ \begin{aligned}&8527\bullet11\\&\quad-8527\bullet39\end{aligned} $$

$$ \begin{aligned}&8515-3\\&\quad-8515\bullet5\end{aligned} $$

TAPE RECORDER

$$ \begin{aligned}&8519\bullet40\\&\quad-8519\bullet91\end{aligned} $$

$$ \begin{aligned}&211-911\\&\quad-9211-933\end{aligned} $$

$$ 891-12- $$

$$ 8519\bullet99-9- $$

$$ 9211-990- $$

$$ 8520- $$

$ ^{*} $ The definition of parts on A.V. machine is according to the classification of Electric Industries Association.

OTHER CONSUMER

ELECTRIC MACHINERY

$$ 8414\bullet51- $$

$$ 8415\bullet11- $$

$$ 725- $$

$$ 8418\bullet21-8418\bullet30 $$

$$ 8415\bullet120- $$

$$ \boxed{8418\bullet99-1} $$

$$ 8415\bullet20-31 $$

$$ 8450\bullet11-8450\bullet19 $$

$$ 8415\bullet41- $$

$$ \boxed{8450\bullet90-} $$

$$ 8440\bullet1- $$

$$ 8451\bullet21- $$

$$ 8440\bullet71- $$

$$ 8509-8510 $$

$$ 8506-8507 $$

$$ 8516- $$

$$ 8512- $$

$$ \begin{aligned}&\boxed{8509-90}\\&\boxed{8510-90}\quad\boxed{8516-91}\end{aligned} $$

$ ^{*} $ The number in dotted line box indicates the parts of other consumer E.Machine.
Table:5 Trade Amount of Household Electric & Electronic Machinery

Table:6 Trade Amount of Household Electric & Electronic Machinery

PARTS Household A.V.
Table:7 Trade Amount of Household Electric & Electronic Machinery

Table:8 Trade Amount of Household Electric & Electronic Machinery
Table:9 Trade Amount of Household Electric & Electronic Machinery

Table: 10 Trade Amount of Household Electric & Electronic Machinery
Table:11 Manufactured Product Export

Household E.E. Machine + A.V. Machine

Table:12 Manufactured Product Export

Household E.E. Machine + A.V. Machine
Table:13 COMPETITIVE INDEX AV PRODUCTS

Table:14 COMPETITIVE INDEX HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
Table: 15 A trend of foreign direct investment of Japanese HEEI to Korea & Thailand

Year of Advancement	Japanese factory in Korea	Japanese factory in Thailand
Household Product	Electric Parts	Household Product	Electric Parts
'60 - '64	2
'65 - '69	2	2	1
'70 - '74	4	29	2
'75 - '79	4	1
'80 - '84	1	4	2	2
'85 - '89	2	15	7	22
- '90	1
'60 - '90	7	55	16	25

“A List of Japanese Overseas Corporation, 1990” Electric Industries Association
Table:16 The result of questionnaires to Japanese electronic companies in Korea and Thailand as of 1989. (The number of companies : Korea=61, Thailand=41)

The share of destination for shipment	(%)
Domestic Market	Japanese Market	Third countries
Korea	55.1	26.7	18.2	79.4% answered
Thailand	28.4	33.4	38.2	60.9% answered

The share of supplier of materials and parts for production (%)
Local Japanese company	Local company	Japanese company	Others
Korea	7.0	38.2	52.1	2.7	39.7% answered
Thailand	6.7	3.9	76.1	13.3	23.9% answered

“A List of Japanese Overseas Corporation, 1990” Electric Industries Association

Table:17 The change of investment amount to ASEAN countries by Japan and Korea

(Mn$)

Year	Malaysia	Thailand	Indonesia	the Philippines	Total
Korea	'86	2.1	0.9	21.5	0.0	24.5
'87	9.0	12.9	15.5	0.7	38.1
'88	8.9	109.0	207.0	0.5	325.4
'89	29.1	170.7	466.1	17.5	683.4
Japan	'86	67.6	250.7	324.6	22.3	665.2
'87	185.0	965.2	512.1	28.8	1,691.1
'88	214.3	3,062.7	256.0	94.6	3,627.6
'89	391.8	3,524.2	768.7	157.7	4,842.4

“Interdependence of Asian Economies”

“JKE Research Report Jan.1992 No.7” Japan-Korea Economic Association
## Table:18 COMPETITIVE INDEX

a low export specialization of the Korean electronics parts industry although the finished products of the Korean HEEI are enjoying a high export specialization and realized a clear formation of the Flying-Wild-Geese development pattern as is shown in Table 13,14. This is because the Korean HEEI's export expansion was realized before the learning effect diffused enough into the local enterprises and they therefore lack technologies in intermediate products, and inter-industrial relations which connect their technologies with the parts production lagged behind, although the level of their technologies were high enough to produce parts.

According to Japan-Korea Economic Bulletin 1990.8 published by the Japan-Korea Economic Association, the Korean industries highly depended for a supply of integrated circuits(IC) on the import from other countries while the Korean IC industry itself was enjoying a net export rate (export rate of 89% and import rate of 88%). This indicates that the Korean electric and electronics industries lack technologies to provide the basic designs of ICs and cannot help relying on the import of the core part of ICs for processing their 1C products. Since 1987, the import from Japan has surpassed that from the U.S. The fact suggests that, in spite of an attempt by the Korean manufacturers to diversify the source of the supply of IC, they had to depend for a supply of the core part of IC on the Japanese.
between trade and investment. The interdependency in more open systems should be realized for a further economic development in the region.

1 Mizuno, Junko, and Yahata, Narumi, “Kankoku kikaisangyo no kigyoukan bungyou kouzou to gijutsu iten” Institute of Developing Economies, pp. 21-24.

2 Suehiro, Akira, “Asia shin kogyouka to nichbei keizai : 3.Thai shin kogyouka to nichbei keizai” compiled by Nakagawa, Nobuyoshi, Osaka City Univ. Economic Research Institute pp.114.

3 Komaki, Teruo, “Kokusaika jidai no Kankoku keizai” Institute of Developing Economies, pp.118.

4 “Japan-Korea Economic Bulletin 1992.1” Japan-Korea Economic Association, pp. 14.

5 Yamazawa, Ippei, “Dynamism of Japanese Economy : 6. Industrial Development and International Division of Labor” compiled by Shinohara, Miyohei, Toyokeizaihinposha, 1991, pp.225.

6 Japan Economic Newspaper, May 18, 1992.
Chapter 7

# CAN WILD GEESE CONTINUE TO FLY OVER THE WORLD? The Theory of Flying Wild Geese Development and Will for Economic Development

### 1. X Zone and the Theory of Flying Wild Geese Development Loose unification

The economy of the Asia-Pacific region is steadily growing. Growth of the Japanese economy has triggered an expansion of the Korean and Taiwanese economies, which, in turn, has stimulated economic growth of ASEAN member countries. Economic interdependence in the region has helped the region grow as a whole. This is characterized by the following two points.

First, the ripple effect of economic growth derives from the economic interdependence through investment and export, not from institutional and legislative unification in the region. In this point, the Asia-Pacific region is taking a different course when it is compared with the European Community (EC), which has started with institutional and legislative unification. In the Asia-Pacific region, a loose unification has facilitated its economic expansion.

Second, in the course of such a loose unification, countries in the Asia-Pacific region have always maintained a stance to give priority over talks with outside countries and have tried to reduce military elements from their cooperation. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) endeavors to offer an opportunity not only to Japan, the United States, and EC, but also to India and countries belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), that is, the former Soviet Union. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (APEC), which is composed of countries in the Pacific Rim, aims at a regional growth as an open organization in the great framework of the world.

Stimulated by the move of the United States toward the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and that of Europe toward EC, Malaysia has recently proposed the idea of the East Asia Economic Caucus (EAEC), which has a character of economic unification to a greater extent than ASEAN. Malaysia has explained that it did not have any other intention than that of facilitating the Uruguay Round. The ASEAN's summit held in January 1992 agreed on a plan to establish the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), a system of reciprocal concession of tariff. This was an ambitious plan, proposing to cut reciprocally tariff for industrial products to below 5% within fifteen years in order to promote trade among member countries. APEC is going to set up its permanent office. Of course, a great effort must be required to surmount many obstacles and realize these plans and ideas. We should note that they have something in common with each other in that they definitely intend to maintain powerful economic growth now observed in the Asia-Pacific region.

## The X zone plan

A group of economists headed by Saburo Ohkita proposed a plan of the “X Zone” a dozen years ago, though it has almost been forgotten. As you will see in Chart 1, the X-shape zone in the Pacific region with Japan in its center covers areas having great growth potential and little time difference. Ohkita and his aides thought that if the countries in the X Zone, each
<the Far East Asia>	<oceania>
1. Japan	19. Australia
2. North and South Korea	20. the Solomon Islands
3. Taiwan	21. the Cocos Islands
<the East Asia>	22. Fiji
4. China	23. Polynesia
5. Hongkong	24. the Gilbert Islands
6. Macao	25. Guam
7. Mongolia	26. Nauru
<the Southeast Asia>	27. New Caledonia
8. Brunei	28. New Guinea
9. Myanmar	29. the New Hebrides
10. Kampuchea	30. New Zealand
11. Indonesia	31. Norfolk Island
12. Laos	32. the Mariana Islands,
13. Malaysia	the Caroline Islands and
14. the Philippines	the Marshall Islands
15. Timor	33. Papua
16. Singapore	34. Tonga
17. Thailand	<Siberia>
18. Vietnam	35. East Siberia
36. Far East Siberia
Fig.1 The development of Major industries in Japan

Ippei Yamazawa, “Economic Development of Japan and International Division of Labor”, Toyokeizaishinbunsha, 1984.

Fig.2 FLYING WILD-GEESE IN THE PACIFIC SYNTHETIC FABRICS

Ippei Yamazawa, “Dynamism of Japanese Economy: Chapter 6 Industrial Development and International Division of Labor” compiled by Miyohei Shinohara, Toyokeizai-shinbunsha, 1991.
Table.1 The number of overseas manufacturing subsidiaries of U.S.-based multinational enter- prises

Area	1901	1913	1919	1929	1939	1950	1959	1967
*Canada	6	30	61	137	169	225	330	443
*Europe & the U.K.	37	72	84	226	335	363	677	1438
France	8	12	12	36	52	54	98	223
Germany	10	15	18	43	50	47	97	211
the U.K.	13	23	28	78	128	146	221	356
Others	6	22	26	69	105	116	261	648
*Southern British Self-governing dominions	1	3	8	25	69	99	184	361
*Central & South America	3	10	20	56	114	259	572	950
*Others	0	1	7	23	28	42	128	454
Total	47	116	180	467	715	988	1891	3646

J.W.Vaupel and J.P.Curhan, The Making of Multinational Enterprise
Table.2 The operation of local subsidiaries of U.S. companies in Latin America (U.S.$MIL)

1957	1966
Amount	% in Sales	Amount	% in Sales
Total Sales	$2,286	100.0%	$6,548	100.0%
Local area	2,203	96.4	5,880	89.8
Overseas : Subsidiaries	83	3.6	347	5.3
Other companies	321	4.9
Local Payment	1,868	81.7	5,369	82.0
Raw materials, service	1,212	53.0	3,274	50.0
Wages and salaries	354	15.5	1,147	17.5
Income tax	149	6.5	464	7.1
Others	153	6.7	484	7.4
Overseas Payment	308	13.5	813	12.4
Raw materials, service	246	10.8	666	10.2
Profit remittance	62	2.7	147	2.2

Council for Latin America, The Effects of United States and Other Foreign Investment in Latin America (New York, 1970/1). U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Business Investments in Foreign Countries (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1960).
Table.3 Economic Indices Latin American countries in 1960s

Year	GDP growth rate (60 - 70)	Industrial Structure Ratio
Primary Industry	Secondary Industry	Tertiary Industry
Argentina	1960	17.4	46.4	36.1
1969	3.7	15.2	51.2	33.6
Brazil	1960	22.1	33.9	44.0
1969	5.8	19.9	36.3	43.8
Mexico	1960	16.6	32.6	50.8
1969	7.2	12.8	36.2	51.0
Peru	1960	24.1	35.4	40.5
1969	4.9	18.2	38.9	42.9
Chile	1960	12.1	46.1	41.8
1969	4.3	10.1	51.5	38.4
Total	1960	20.2	36.9	42.9
1969	5.5	17.3	39.6	43.1

Reproduced from ECLA : Annual Report 1970
Table.4 Unstable policies on foreign capital in Latin America

<Brazil>	<Mexico>	<Peru>
(1960's)	the Latin America Free Trade Alliance (LAFTA) the Central American Common Market (CACM) the Maquiladora Zone	Farm land reform
Farm land reform
(1970's)	*Accommodation policy which attached priority on domestic cooperation *Selective acceptance of foreign capital	*Mexicanization policy *Fade-out principle *Foreign Capital Law
*Exclusion of textile and household electric industry from the subject of industry promotion policy	*Restriction of overseas remittance	*Nationalization principle of basic industry
*the Commission to Study the Impact of Multinational Corporation	*Technology Transfer Law	*Nationalization of 120 enterprises
*Penalty on cartel by foreign capital	*Restriction on foreign capital application	*Social Enterprise Sharing Law
*Reinforcement of prior screening of contract for technology introduction	*50% depreciation of the peso	*Shift to the ex post facto screening
*Encouragement of domestic production on promoted industries	*Streamline of foreign capital acceptance procedure	*Restriction on the right to strike
*Restriction of overseas remittance of profits by foreign corporation (1980's)	*Tax reduction for job creation	*Relaxation of the restriction of J.V contracts *Floating system
*Intervention of IMF	*Financial crisis	*Belaude administration
*Cancellation of the profit remittance restriction	*Intervention of IMF	*Relaxation of the profit remittance restriction .
*Prohibition of foreign capital inflow in computer industry	*Deregulation	*Proclamation of the state of emergency
*Super Trade Law 301 application	*Import liberalization	*Privatization of 5 national banks
*Localization of banking and insurance industry	*Becoming a member of GATT	*Garcia administration
*A bill of exclusion of foreign capital	*the US-Mexico trade and investment conference	*Import restriction
*Moratorium	*Salinas administration	*Nationalization of banking and insurance industry
*Soft Ware Low	*New Maquiladora Law	*Prohibition of profit remittance
*Liveralization of profit remittance	*Technology Introduction Liberalization Law	*Fujimori administration
market economies in Indochina.

In the domino theory which was discussed some years ago, the victory of communism in one country was said to spread to neighboring countries one after another. However, at present, there is a reverse domino phenomenon called an expansion of market economies. This is against the backdrop of successful development policy, which achieved steady growth and expanded the middle stratum of society, while being criticized that it only widened income gap. Such policy may continue to be an object of criticism based on Western point of view. However, in Marx's words, the economy, which is a substructure, determines politics, which is an upper structure. Although there are criticisms against development dictatorship, the success of the system will develop the middle stratum of society and gradually pushes the country toward democracy.

Flying wild geese development creates axis for development, which is called X Zone or the Asia-Pacific Economic Corridor in terms of its geographic spread. This will contribute to economic and political development of the world. The future task for us is to let wild geese fly farther and higher in all regions of the globe.
## Chapter 9: International Partnership and Contribution for the Nation’s Sustainable Development

## [Developing international partnership and coordination mechanism under the initiative of Japan]

MLIT is working to bolster partnership in ASEAN and East Asia as a whole in such sectors as transport, construction, and marine environment management. The ministry is developing a policy network involving transport ministers in world major countries and a network of ministers in charge of infrastructure development in the Asia-Pacific region.

Moreover, MLIT is taking steps to ensure that overseas construction markets are free and fair and find solutions to the water problems in the world.

## [Efforts concerning international standards]

MLIT is addressing a number of issues concerning international standards. Among them are: harmonization of vehicle regulations and mutual recognition of certification; international standardization of railway specifications; promoting of formulation of international standardization concerning vessels and seafarers; international harmonization of civil engineering and construction standards and certification system; international standardization of ITS and geographical information; and mutual recognition of qualifications for engineers among nations. In addition, the ministry is doing all it can to address the issue over the internationally recognized name of the Sea of Japan.

## [International cooperation that takes advantage of Japan’s experience, technology and expertise]

MLIT is pursuing strategic international cooperation in transport and infrastructure development. The ministry is focusing such sectors as the development of broad-based socioeconomic infrastructure, disaster preparedness, the environment and security. Specifically, JCG is supporting Southeast Asian countries in establishing maritime law enforcement agencies.

## [Multilateral and bilateral talks]

MLIT has been participating in multilateral talks and forums, including the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The ministry is also involved in multilateral talks in such sectors as roads, ports, and maritime affairs and in bilateral negotiations regarding Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).
### V I. シミュレーション分析

## 外挿シミュレーション

以上円ドル、マルクドル・レートの推計式を、分散・共分散を考慮にいた「分散・共分散型モデル」（表 15）と、各国間の資産分配効果を導入した「資産分配型モデル」（表 19）という二つの観点から求めてきた。これらのモデルについて、その推計値と実績値をプロットしたものが図 3 - 1 ~ 図 3 - 5 である。いずれのモデルにせよ、事後的には為替レート変動をかなり説明しているといってよいであろう。

次にここで、これら円ドル、マルクドルの為替レート推計式によって外挿シミュレーションを行ってみることにする。なお外挿期間は1986年第3四半期から1988年第1四半期までである。

シミュレーション結果について、R.M.S.E.は表21-1、表21-2に示されており、その実績値及び予測値のプロットが図4-1～図4-5に示されている。

分散・共分散型モデル

図3-1 実質為替レートの推計結果（円ドル）

（注）為替レートはドル建対数値
図3-2 実質為替レートの推計結果（マルクドル）

（注）為替レートはドル建対数値

図3-3 実質為替レートの推計結果（円ドル）

（注）為替レートはドル建対数値
図3-4 実質為替レートの推計結果（円ドル） 資産分配型モデル ロ）

（注）為替レートはドル建対数値

図 3 - 5 実質為替レートの推計結果（マルクドル） 資産分配型モデル

（注）為替レートはドル建対数値
表21-1 外挿シミュレーション（円ドル・レート）

年	期	実績値(円)	分散・共分散型モデル	資産分配型モデル イ)	資産分配型モデル ロ)
推計値	誤差	誤差率(%)	推計値	誤差	誤差率(%)	推計値	誤差	誤差率(%)
86	Q3	155.85	190.13	34.2790	22.00	180.64	24.7965	15.91	181.04	25.1973	16.17
87	Q4	159.97	167.70	7.7301	4.83	160.81	0.8361	0.52	160.72	0.7431	0.46
Q1	152.23	160.66	8.4315	5.54	148.32	-3.9112	-2.57	150.67	-1.5662	-1.03
Q2	144.36	177.69	33.3397	23.10	148.86	4.5067	3.12	156.95	12.5902	8.72
Q3	145.80	170.74	24.9336	17.10	139.20	-6.6066	-4.53	147.71	1.9017	1.30
Q4	134.94	178.21	43.2686	32.07	138.27	3.3306	2.47	149.87	14.9337	11.07
88	Q1	125.62	152.22	26.5996	21.18	119.59	-6.0271	-4.80	128.75	3.1368	2.50
MEAN	145.54	171.05	25.5117	17.97	147.96	2.4179	1.45	153.67	8.1338	5.60
STD.DV	11.15	11.55	12.3224	9.10	17.77	10.0094	6.60	14.59	9.0221	5.97
RMSE	-	-	28.3318	20.14	-	10.2973	6.76	-	12.1473	8.19

（注）1．外挿期間は1986年第3四半期～1988年第1四半期

2. MEAN は外挿期間中の平均値

3. STD.DV は外挿期間中の STANDARD DEVIATION

4. RMSE は外挿期間中の ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERRORS

5. 資産分配型モデル イ）は、定数項を分割したモデル、資産分配型モデル 口）は、定数項を分割しないモデル

表 21-2 外挿シミュレーション（マルクドル・レート）

年	期	実績値(DM)	分散・共分散型モデル	資産分配型モデル
推計値	誤差	誤差率(%)	推計値	誤差	誤差率(%)
86	Q3	2.0749	2.7182	0.643294	31.00	2.3925	0.317646	15.31
87	Q4	1.9994	1.9186	-0.080769	-4.04	1.8425	-0.156900	-7.85
Q1	1.8494	1.8944	0.044948	2.43	1.7625	-0.086883	-4.70
Q2	1.8112	1.8138	0.002591	0.14	1.5939	-0.217291	-12.00
Q3	1.8283	2.5211	0.692789	37.89	1.9425	0.114150	6.24
Q4	1.6870	2.3227	0.635754	37.69	1.8085	0.121530	7.20
88	Q1	1.6742	1.9530	0.278820	16.65	1.5637	-0.110546	-6.60
MEAN	1.8463	2.1631	0.316775	17.40	1.8437	-0.002613	-0.34
STD.DV	0.1374	0.3295	0.312097	16.90	0.2562	0.177383	9.22
RMSE	-	-	0.444692	24.25	-	0.177402	9.23

（注）1．外挿期間は1986年第3四半期～1988年第1四半期

2．MEAN は外挿期間中の平均値

3. STD.DV は外挿期間中の STANDARD DEVIATION

4．RMSE は外挿期間中の ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERRORS
## Chapter 11: Technical R&D Supporting Japan in the 21st Century

## [Promoting technical R&D]

Based on its basic plan on technical R&D, MLIT is promoting cross-sectoral and integrated R&D of technologies in close partnership with the ministries and agencies concerned, universities, independent administrative institutions, and the private sector. The ministry is also promoting the use of technologies thus developed in public works projects and in construction and public transport sectors.

Gist of the MLIT technology basic plan

## [Improving construction management skills]

MLIT is working to improve its cost estimation skills in public works projects and apply ISO management systems. For more efficient infrastructure development, the ministry is also working to upgrade construction mechanization, as well as developing and promoting machinery and construction technologies that are eco-friendly, safe and easy to operate.
1 日時：平成27年2月17日（火）14：00～15：00

2 場所：特定個人情報保護委員会委員会室（三会堂ビル8階）

3 出席者：堀部委員長、阿部委員、嶋田委員、手塚委員、加藤委員

其田事務局長、松元総務課長

## 4 議事の概要

（１）議題１：公的年金業務等に関する事務全項目評価書についての概要説明について

特定個人情報保護委員会議事運営規程第8条の規定により、厚生労働省及び日本年金機構の職員が会議に出席した。

厚生労働省及び日本年金機構から、公的年金業務等に関する事務全項目評価書の概要について説明があった。

加藤委員から「番号制度に対応するためのシステム改修を一次対応と二次対応に分けて実施することについて、その必要性と今後のスケジュールについて説明してほしい」という旨の発言があった。これに対し日本年金機構から「平成28年1月に向けた個人番号の収録及び個人番号による年金相談等に対応するための機能の構築、平成29年1月以降の個人番号を用いた申請・届出に対応する機能及び情報連携を行う機能の構築を計画しており、2段階に分けて実施することにしている」という旨の発言があった。

手塚委員から「住民票コード又は「個人番号登録届」(仮称)から個人番号を入手する場合に、個人番号管理サブシステム以外の年金給付システム等いくつかのシステムを経由するが、それぞれのシステムが個人番号を保有しないことについて説明してほしい」という旨の発言があった。これに対し日本年金機構から「年金給付システム等は地方公共団体情報システム機構に対し個人番号の照会、回答の受領等を瞬時に行い、個人番号を保持するための機能やデータベースを一切持たない」という旨の発言があった。

阿部委員から「機構が保有している住民票コードをもとに地方公共団体情報システム機構に個人番号の照会を行い、基礎年金番号と紐づけ個人番号管理サブシステムに登録することについて、リスク対策を説明してほしい」という旨の発言があった。これに対し日本年金機構から「地方公共団体情報システム機構との情報連携には専用回線を用いること、年金番号と1対1で紐付いている住民票コードにより照会を行い、住民票コードと紐付く個人番号が回答されることなど対象者以外の個人番号を入手するリスクはない」という旨の発言があった。

嶋田委員から「過去3年以内に発生した個人情報に関する重大事故について、講じている再発防止策を説明してほしい」という旨の発言があった。こ