Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
## (2) Long-term Economic Downturn

## (Downturn in Economic Growth Rate)

The economy of Japan saw major growth with post-war reconstruction after World War II and the high economic growth period, so that by the end of 1960's Japan stood as number 2 in global economic power. However, due to the economic bubble burst at the beginning of 1990, the real economic growth rate which was at 6.4% in 1988, dropped to -0.5% by 1993, resulting in a major drop in Japan's economic growth.

Graphic 13 Real GDP; Trend in Real Economic Growth Rate

(Note) Values of both Real GDP and Real Economic Growth Rate are on fiscal year basis. For Real GDP, before 1979 based on 1990 standard (68SNA), 1980-1993 on 2000 standard (93SNA), 1994 and beyond based on 2005 standard (93SNA). For Real Economic Growth Rate, before 1980 based on 1990 standard (68SNA), 1981-1994 on 2000 standard (93SNA), 1995 and beyond on 2005 standard (93SNA).

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Cabinet Office "National Accounting"

compared to previous times. From 2002, Japan seemed to be going into a long-term economic expansion process. Then in 2008, due to the impact of the global economic downturn triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Japan was pushed into negative economic growth, and since then the Japanese economy has continued to experience low growth (Graphic 13).

How has the population of young people experienced these changes in macro economy? When looking at the economic growth rate experienced during early life by each generation, it is evident that the current generation of young people have been experiencing a lower economic growth rate than those of the previous generations. The average economic growth rate that people experienced in their 20's and 30's is as follows, according to the person's age in 2012: 6.59% for people aged 69 (born 1943), 3.99% for people aged 59 (born 1953), 2.55% for people aged 49 (born 1963), 0.83% for people aged 39 (born 1973), and 0.84% for people aged 29 (born 1983). Basically, the closer it gets to recent years, the lower the average rate of economic growth seems to become (Graphic 14).

Graphic 14 Economic Growth Rate during Each Generation's Early Life

(Note) 1 Values are by fiscal year basis. For before 1980 based on 1990 standard (68SNA), 1981-1994 on 2000 standard (93SNA), 1995 and beyond on 2005 standard (93SNA).

2 Developed by MLIT from: 2013 January-March Quarterly GDP Preliminary Report (published 16 May 2013) for values from after 1995.

3 Person's age in year 2012 used.

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Cabinet Office "National Accounting"
## (Rise in Unemployment Rate)

Next, we will look at the trend in unemployment rate. Though unemployment rate has been rising for every age group, the unemployment for people aged 20-24 years old has especially seen a steep rise. In 1970, the unemployment rate for this age group was 2.0%, while in 2012 it was 7.9%. The current population of young people is facing a much higher level of unemployment compared to previous generations (Graphic 15).

When the unemployment rates experienced by each generation are broken down into age groups, then compared at the same age point, one can see that the younger generations are experiencing increasingly higher unemployment rates. For example, at the 20-24 years old age point, the unemployment rate for the generation born within 1953-1962 was 3.5% unemployment, 1963-1972 generation was 4.3%, 1973-1982 generation was 7.8%, and 1983-1992 generation was 8.2%. So although unemployment rates at 25-29 years old, and 30-34 years old age points are generally lower for every generation when compared

Graphic 15 Trend in unemployment rate in young people

(Note) Estimate values (2010 Population Census of Japan Criteria) used for the 3 prefectures (Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima) affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011.

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Labor Force Survey"

Graphic 16 Trend in Unemployment Rates by Generation

(Note) Estimate values (2010 Population Census of Japan Criteria) used for the 3 prefectures (Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima) affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011.

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Labor Force Survey"

to the 20-24 years old age point, the younger generations are still experiencing higher levels of unemployment rates at each age point (Graphic 16).

## (The Procession of Deflation)

In regards to the trend in price levels, from 1970 there has been a long-term rise in price levels, which reached its peak in 1998 and then began to fall. Since price levels have been steadily dropping from 1999 through 2012, the current generation of young people will have spent most of their early life in the deflation period (Graphic 17).

Due in some part to the effect of this difficult economic situation, when MLIT asked a question regarding the “image of society 10 years from now” in the Public

Graphic 17 Trend in Consumer Price Index (Entire Country) (Year 2010=100)
Awareness Survey (hereinafter referred to as “Public Awareness Survey”) $ ^{Note} $ conducted in March 2013, the percentage of young people who answered, “A society of uncertainty,” or “A dark society” was higher than that for other age groups (Graphic 18).

Source) MLIT "Public Awareness Survey"

## (3) Internationalization

As interactions between national economies strengthen, and modes of transportation and information and communication technology continue to advance, the transnational movement of people, goods, services, capital, and information has become more and more active.

## (Surge in Travelling and Logistics)

As regards the movement of people, the number of visitor arrivals in Japan has seen long-term increase; recent levels have reached over 8 million visitors (Graphic 19).

Out of these visitors, the percentage of visitors from the USA has been decreasing, while that of visitors from China has more than doubled, having gone from 6.5% in 1998 to 17.1% in 2012 (Graphic 20).

(Note) Values for years up to 2011 are definite values, values for 2012 are estimates calculated by JNTO Source) Developed by MLIT from: Japan National Tourist Organization (JNTO) "Trend in Number of Foreign Visitors"

Graphic 20 Trend in Percentages of Visitor Arrivals in Japan by Country
The trend in the number of Japanese people travelling overseas has been steadily increasing since 1964, when overseas travel—which until then had been restricted to business trips or studying abroad—was opened up to sightseeing trips. In particular, there was a sharp increase from the latter half of 1980's to the 1990's, and for the first time, the number of people going abroad reached over 10 million people. Since then, there have been temporary dips in numbers, due to reasons such as the terrorist attacks on the USA on September 11, 2001, and the SARS outbreak and war against Iraq in 2003. However, in general, the level has been progressively increasing, having reached roughly over 15 million people travelling abroad in recent years (Graphic 21).

In addition, from the 1990's in to 2000's, there has been a major increase in the number of Japanese students that enrolled in a university overseas. Though the numbers have dropped off in the recent years, within the youth population (aged 18-29 years old) there is still a high number of people—3.7 people out of 1000—that study abroad (Graphic 22).

The movement in goods show, when looking at the trade situation with foreign countries, that Japan’s export trade in 1960 was in the range of approximately JPY1.5 trillion, and import was around JPY1.6 trillion. However, from 1973 both import

Graphic 21 Trend in Number of Japanese Travelling Abroad

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Ministry of Justice (MOJ) "Annual Report of Statistics on Legal Migrants"

Graphic 22 Trend in the Number of Japanese Studying Abroad

and export climbed to JPY10 trillion ranges, and by 1980 both had expanded into the JPY30 trillion range. In 2012, export trade is in the JPY64 trillion range, and import is in JPY71 trillion range (Graphic 23).

In terms of trade partners, for a long time USA was Japan’s number one trade partner, but in 2002, China has surpassed the USA, and since then has been Japan’s number one trade partner (Graphic 24).

Graphic 23 Trend in Import and Export Totals of Japan
Source) Developed by MLIT from: MOF "Trade Statistics of Japan"

## (Structuring an International Division of Labor)

The movement of capital has been changing as international competition intensified. In manufacturing, more and more production bases have been setup overseas in order to create the best division of labor on a global scale possible. The overseas production ratio (obtained by dividing sales of overseas affiliates by the sum of domestic corporation sales and sales of overseas affiliates) has been growing, with 18.0% in 2011 (Graphic 25).

## Section 2 Change in Mentality of Young People

## (1) Growing Concern towards the Future

With the difficult economic climate of rising unemployment rates and stagnant economic growth, the number of young people that are concerned and worried about their futures is a much higher today than in previous generations. Although the number of people who have economic concerns—such as, “Current and/or future prospects for earnings and assets,” or anxiety regarding pursuit of higher education, availability of jobs, prospect of marriage, and other concerns in life—are rising in all age groups, the number is especially high in the younger population (Graphic 26).
(Note) 1 In surveys conducted before 1987, the item concerning future economic climate was worded as, "Future prospects for living expenses," but in surveys from 1992 on, the question was framed as, "Future prospects for earnings and assets." The two wordings have been counted as synonymous.

2 The percentage those who answered, “I have concerns about the future” is calculated by adding together the number of people who answered, “Future prospects for earnings and assets,” “My life (higher education, jobs, marriage, etc.)”

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Cabinet Office "Poll regarding Life of Japanese Citizens"

## (2) Heightened Mentality of Provident Preparation for the Future

The concerns regarding the future of the economic situation has created a mentality of “preparing for the future,” and this mentality has become apparent in behaviour. The percentage of young people whose want to focus their lives on, “Saving and investing in preparation for later in life” instead of, “Enjoy daily life to the fullest,” is higher than in previous generations of young people. Even when comparing the average savings ratio per household, the number has gone from 16.6% in 1989 to 21.2% in 2012, a 4.6 jump. For households of people younger than 40, the number has gone from 17% in 1989 to 24.9% in 2012, a 7.9 jump (Graphic 27, 28).

(Note) The graph value is the percentage of “Enjoy daily life to the fullest” subtracted from “save and invest in preparation for later in life”

(Note) 1 Average Savings Ratio=1 month's average savings amount/1 month's disposable income amount.

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Cabinet Office “Poll regarding Life of Japanese Citizens”

2 Survey targeted the working households out of all households.

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Family Income and Expenditure Survey"
Even in regards to consumption—the flip-side of saving—the mentality of controlling spending is apparent. From the fact that a high percentage of over 80% people think, “I don’t want to take out loans or go in to debt for shopping,” and that the percentage of people who answer, “I research product information on the internet before I buy” is higher among people in their 20’s and 30’s, we can see that people do not want to spend beyond their means, and that they use the internet to efficiently collect information before spending money (Graphic 29). In addition, regarding things that can be shared with other people, the percentage of young people who think, “I don’t mind sharing things that have high costs” is higher than other age groups. It is apparent that by not insisting on having one’s own things, they are trying to keep costs down (Graphic 30).

Graphic 29 Values regarding Consumption

Source) MLIT "Public Awareness Survey"

“I research product information on the internet before I buy”

Source) MLIT "Public Awareness Survey"

Graphic 30 Mentality regarding Sharing

As more and more opportunities arise to share things with a third party, such as car share, which of the following statements regarding sharing best fits your thinking?

Source) MLIT "Public Awareness Survey"

## (3) Increase of People Who are Satisfied with Life

Although the current generation of young people are controlling their spending in order to prepare for future needs, this does not mean they have low levels of satisfaction with their lives.

Compared to previous generations, the environment in which the current generation of young people grew up is far more materially comfortable. Since the latter half of the 1950's, consumer goods that had not previously existed were brought, one after another, into Japan's households. Beginning in later 1950's, the three consumer electronics, known as "the three sacred treasures," the black-and-white television, washing machine, and refrigerator began to appear in homes; then in later 1960's the "new three sacred treasures," the colour television, passenger automobile, and air conditioner also became popularized.

In view of the fact that by the 1980's, basically 100% of all households had a refrigerator, a washing machine, and a
colour television, for the current generation of young people, having these things is a given. In addition, taking into account the advent of smartphones, tablet computers, and other new products in recent years, plus the variety and quality of consumer goods, and considering how normal it is to possess such things, from a material prospective, Japan's affluence is continuing to increase (Graphic 31).

Perhaps it is a reflection of such circumstances that the

Graphic 31 Trend in Popularization of Durable Goods

(Note) For values for before 1977, the year end is February, from 1978 on the year end is March. Source) Developed by MLIT from: Cabinet Office "Consumer Confidence Survey", MIC "Communication Usage Trend Survey"

percentage of young people that are satisfied with their lives is rising. According to the “Poll regarding Life of Japanese Citizens,” the percentage of people in their 20’s and 30’s who, when asked regarding their current lifestyle answered, “Satisfied,” or, “Fairly satisfied,” is on the rise, whereas in other age groups the percentage has levelled off or declined. In fact, in 2012 the said percentage of young people who are satisfied with their lives was at the highest it had been in the last 30 years (Graphic 32).

Moreover, when asked, “Do you think, ‘I don’t want to lower my standard of living from where it is now’?” the percentage of young people who answered “Definitely yes” was higher than in other age groups (Graphic 33).

Graphic 32 Trend in the Life Contentment (Year 1977 = 100)

(Note) The ratio of the total individuals responding as “Satisfied” or “Fairly satisfied” in current living conditions are derived from the rate of variability of 1977.

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Cabinet Office “Public Opinion Survey Concerning People’s Lifestyles”

Graphic 33 Preference for Future Standard of Living
Graphic 35 Trends in People Employed by Educational Background

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: Ministry of Education "School Basic Survey"

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: Ministry of Education "School Basic Survey"

## (Decrease in Employment Rate of University Graduates)

If we look at the career paths of university graduates after graduation, we can see that until the beginning of the 1990's the percentage of people that found employment after graduation was 70-80%. However, since the Japanese economic bubble burst, this percentage has been declining. From 81% in 1991, the percentage dropped to 56% by 2000. From 2001 things started to improve, until in 2008, when the Lehman shock hit. Since then, finding employment has again become difficult (Graphic 37).

Graphic 37 Career Paths after Graduating University

Meanwhile, since the economic bubble burst, the percentage of people who were “Working a temporary job and/or not pursuing higher education or employment” after graduating college rose, as employment rates dropped. This number hit its peak in 2003, at 27.1%. Increase in the number of people who either find a temporary job or do not pursue higher education or find employment has been thought to be directly connected to the economic climate and employment situation at the time of graduation. As such, the difficult employment situation (low number of job openings) rose around the early 2000’s and again in later 2000’s. Further, from the fact that, from the 1960’s to the late 1970’s, as well as the
1990's, the number of people that either found temporary work and/or did not pursue higher education or employment rose at the same time as the number of people enrolling in university rose, it seems that the job market has become increasingly competitive among university graduates (Graphic 38).

Graphic 38 Rate of people pursuing university degrees, Percentage of people working a temporary job and/or not pursuing higher education or employment

## (Rise in Percentage of Non-regular Employment)

Next, we will look at the changes in the type of employment found by the people who found employment. When the trend in the percentage of people who found non-regular employment is compared by age groups, the percentage of non-regular employment seems to be growing in the long-term. In particular, for the 15-24 year old age group, there is significant rise in the number from mid-1990's when the economic bubble burst, until the mid-2000's (Graphic 39).

Graphic 39 Trend in Percentage of Non-regular Employment by Age Group

(Note) 1 The percentages are derived from the total of “Permanent/regular employee” and “Temporary/non-regular employee”.

2 The figures for 15-24 years old age group that does not include students is from year 2000.

3 In regards to “Temporary/non-regular employee,” the figures for 2008 is a total from “Part-time or temporary part-time job worker,” “Dispatched worker from temporary labour agency,” “Contract employee and Entrusted employee” and “Other.” Figures for years 2009 and beyond are aggregates from this newly created item. Further, because the results from years 2009 and 2010 were replaced on May 17, 2011, the some of the figures may differ from the numbers that had been previously released. Due to this, the percentages for “Permanent/Regular employee” and “Temporary/Non-regular employee” for years 2009 and 2010 have also been re-calculated and replaced.

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Labor Force Survey"
When analysing the non-regular employment percentage by different age groups, the percentage of men in their early 20’s in non-regular employment has been continually rising; the increase is especially significant in generations born after 1970. In each age group, there is a temporary drop in the percentage of non-regular employment from early 20’s to later 20’s, which shows that after working in non-regular employment, people transition into finding regular employment. For the generation born between 1978-1982, there was a large drop in

non-regular employment from early 20’s to late 20’s, yet the percentage of people in non-regular employment is still higher than in any other generation (Graphic 40).

On the other hand, for women,

by and large, the percentage of women in their early 20’s in non-regular employment is low, but as they get older, the percentage of non-regular employment rises. However, for the generation born between 1978-1982, the percentage of women in their early 20’s in non-regular employment is high, but gradually decreases in their later 20’s. As the participation of women in society advances, it seems there are more women who want to work as a permanent employee. However when looking at the percentages by generation, for women born after 1970, the

percentage of women in their early 20’s in non-regular employment show a large increase, as with the men of the same generation (Graphic 41).

The number of young, unemployed people (15-34 years old population not in the labor force, not engaged in housework or schooling), referred to in Japanese as a “Freeters (job-hopping part-timers)” or “NEETs (Not in Education, Employment, or Training)” person, are also increasing. The number of “Freeters” saw a huge increase after the economic bubble burst, and in 2003 the number of “Freeters” reached 2.17 million. In the following five years this number began to decrease, but after the Lehman shock in 2009, the number started increasing again, hitting 1.8 million in 2012 (Graphic 42). The number of “NEETs” has been increasing since 2002, when it was over 0.6 million people. In 2010 there was a slight drop in the number, but in 2012 the number increased again to 0.63 million (Graphic 43).
When looking at the breakdown of unemployment rates for young people (people 15-34 years old), the majority—over 40% of the total in 2011—cite the reason for being unemployed and/or job hunting as voluntary resignation from their previous job (Graphic 46). In addition, when people who changed jobs are asked, “why did you quit your previous job?” the majority of women in their 10’s-30’s answer that it was due to poor employment conditions, marriage, or child birth. The majority of men in their 10’s-30’s answer that it was due to having doubts about the future of the company, or dissatisfaction with current working conditions and/or income (Graphic 47). The context for this trend of young people quitting their job after a short term of employment is thought to be due to the difficulty in the overall employment situation. This causes many young people to take a job after graduation that they may not necessarily like, just to get some kind of employment, which seems to result in a large number of such young people quitting their jobs in the future. In fact, there seems to be a direct correlation showing that, the lower the number of jobs

Graphic 46 Trend in Voluntary Resignation of Young People by Reason for Job Hunting

(Note) 1 Unemployment rates of young people by job hunting reason (Total men and women aged 15-34 years old) = Unemployment rates of young people by job hunting reason/Young workforce

2 Figures for 2011 do not include numbers from the 3 prefectures affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Labor Force Survey"

Graphic 47 Reason for Quitting Previous Job

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MHLW "2011 Employment Survey"

available at time of graduation, the higher the job turnover rates tend to be among the graduates of that year.

Despite the large number of people who quit their jobs to look for better work environments, there is no guarantee that changing jobs will lead to better pay or better employment status. The difference in income for people who switch jobs show that for age groups 25-34 year olds and 35-44 year olds, the percentage of people whose income actually increased from their previous job is in the higher 20 percentile to upper 30 percentile (Graphic 48).

Graphic 48 Percentage of People Whose Income Increased after Job Change

2 People who changed jobs refers to those who were previously employed, and had quit their job within the last year

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Labor Force Survey"