Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Fukuoka Area (2000 teens $ \rightarrow $ 2010 20's)

## ⑤ Population Movement within the Fukuoka Area

In the Fukuoka area, when those who were in their teens in 1985 reached their 20's in 1995, the population growth straddled the railway line and the areas nearby, over places like Nishi, Chuo, Minami, Hakata, and Higashi Wards. When those who were in their teens in 2000 reached their 20's in 2010, the population growth was concentrated in particular near the Nishitestu Fukuoka (Tenjin) train station and the Hakata train station (Graphic 111, 112).

When those in their 20’s in 1985 reached their 30’s in 1995, there was hardly any population growth in places like the Chuo Ward or the Hakata Ward, but when those who were in their 20’s in 2000 reached their 30’s in 2010, there was some population growth apparent in a part of the area near Hakata train station (Graphic 113, 114).

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 112

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Fukuoka Area (1985 20's → 1995 30's)

Graphic 113

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 114

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Fukuoka Area (2000 20's → 2010 30's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"
## (Rise in People Residing Near Train Stations)

When looking at the change in the population distribution throughout each metropolitan area, we observed a marked population increase along railway lines. From this we can infer that there are a growing number of people who prefer to live near a train station to make everyday travel and commuting to work or school more convenient. In order to analyse this more closely, we will look at how the percentage of people who reside near a train station has changed by each metropolitan area. Specifically, we calculated the percentages of people who reside within 500m from the center of a train station in the Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka, Sapporo, and Fukuoka areas, out of the population of young people (age in their teens, 20's, 30's), at two points in time: years 2000 and 2010.

As a result, we found that for the Tokyo area, the percentage of people who reside within 500m of a train station increased from 2000 to 2010 as follows: for people in their teens, 21.2% to 22.4%, for people in their 20's, 25.8% to 28.9%, for people in their 30's, 25.6% to 28.0%. This shows that there are more and more young people residing in areas near a train station. Similar trends were found in the Nagoya, Osaka, Sapporo, and Fukuoka areas. In particular, the people in their 20's living in the Fukuoka area, went from 23.4% in 2000 to 31.6% in 2010; an 8.2% increase (Graphic 115).

Graphic 115 Percentages of People who Reside within 500m of a Train Station

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"
## (3) Residence-related Trends

## (National homeownership rate in decline, homeownership rate in Tokyo area recovering)

Though the overall homeownership rate has declined from 1983 to 1993, since 2008, the rate seems to be recovering. Throughout this period, the rate has maintained a level at about 60%. If we look at the rate by age groups, homeownership rate for people under the age of 40 has been in an overall decline since 1983. Homeownership rate for people in their 30's has seen a particularly significant drop, from 53.3% in 1983 to 39.0% in 2008 (Graphic 116).

In the Tokyo area, the homeownership rate for people in their 30's dropped from 46.0% in 1983 to 31.3% in 1998. However, since then the rate started to recover, and by 2008 had risen to 36.8%. Homeownership rate for people under age 30 also decreased from 1983 to 1993, but have been recovering since then (Graphic 117).

Within the Tokyo area, the homeownership rate seems to be back on the rise, most noticeably in Tokyo proper. While homeownership rate for people in their 30's in Tokyo and the neighbouring three prefectures increased 4.4 percentage points from 1998 to 2008 (from 37.8% to 42.2%), in Tokyo proper, the increase was 7.0 percentage points (from 21.8% to 28.8%), showing that the margin of increase was greater in Tokyo proper (Graphic 118, 119).

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Housing Survey", "Housing and Land Survey"

Graphic 117 Trend in Homeownership Rate by Age Group (Tokyo Area)

(Note) Tokyo Area: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa prefectures

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Housing Survey", "Housing and Land Survey"
Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Housing Survey", "Housing and Land Survey"

(Note) Neighbouring prefectures: Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Housing Survey", "Housing and Land Survey"

We can see that the recovering homeownership rate in the Tokyo area was supported by the high levels in housing supply from late 1990's to 2000's. The number of new housing construction for privately-owned homes (total number of custom homes and homes built for sale) from late 1990's to 2000's amounted to around 0.25 million units a year, in response to the eagerness of people in the Tokyo area to purchase a home. From late 1990's to 2000's, out of the all the homes built, the supply of homes built for sale (apartments) increased in particular. The percentage of homes built for sale out of all the newly built homes was over 40% of the total (Graphic 120). As a result, the percentage of houses for rent in the new housing constructed in the Tokyo area went from close to 60% in early 1990's down to around 32% by 2000 (Graphic 121).

Meanwhile, unlike the Tokyo area, the national number for housing supply dropped approximately 0.69 million units after the economic bubble burst. At one point in mid-1990's this was starting to recover, but again in 2000's the number dropped by 0.70 million units, basically as many as when the economic bubble burst. Furthermore, the percentage of condominium apartments out of the total number of privately-owned homes is much lower overall in comparison to the Tokyo area.

Graphic 120 Trend in Number of Newly Built Private Homes

(Note) Tokyo Area: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa prefectures

Source) MLIT "Building Starts"
## Graphic 121

Trend in Number of Newly Built Rental Homes

(Note) Tokyo Area: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa prefectures

Source) MLIT "Building Starts"

In the Tokyo area, as housing supply level rose from mid-1990's to 2000's, we can see that the type of housing supplied was different from the type of housing previously in supply. If we look at the number of apartment units sold by the number of rooms in the home, since the beginning of 2000's, in the Tokyo area the sales percentage of smaller 1 or 2 rooms is growing steadily, while the sales percentage of places with more than 4 rooms are in decline (Graphic 122). This is attributed to the rise in number of one-person households and couple-only households, as fewer members in households require less space in a home. In fact, the percentage of one-person or couple-only households out of overall households is especially high in the Tokyo area compared to the rest of the country, and

Graphic 122 Number of Condominium Units Sold by Type (Tokyo Area)

(Note) 1 Living room, dining room, and kitchen are not included in the number of rooms.

2 Studios are included in the "1 room" category.

3 Tokyo Area: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa prefectures.

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Real Estate Economic Institute Co., Ltd. "Condominium Market Trends Nationwide"

the number of people in a household is particularly decreasing (Graphic 123).
Graphic 123 Trend in Household Composition (Age of head of household: 30's)

(Note) Tokyo Area: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa prefectures

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Census"

The reason for this recovering homeownership rate in the Tokyo area while the national homeownership rate of people in their 30's decline, can be attributed to many aspects, such as change in people's attitude regarding home ownership, demographics movement, changes in the housing purchase environment in the Tokyo area, etc.

## ① Change in People’s Attitude regarding Home Ownership

In a public awareness survey, there were questions regarding where the person would like to live—apart from his or her family home—in the near future (5-10 years from now) and where he or she would like to live after retirement. Results showed that among people aged 20's to 30's, there were a high percentage of people who chose the Tokyo area (Graphic 124, Graphic 125). The results from the “Public Opinion Survey regarding the Future of the Country” conducted in 1994 and 2001 showed that the percentage of young people (aged 20's to 30's) who choose a main city in the three major metropolitan areas (23 districts of Tokyo and government designated cities) as the ideal place for residence is on the rise. Even when comparing the past and present young population, we can see that the inclination to reside in a city has heightened (Graphic 126). There is a possibility that the heightened inclination to reside in a city has led to the rising number of people who purchase a home in the Tokyo area.

Source) MLIT "Public Awareness Survey"

Source) MLIT "Public Awareness Survey"
## ② Affect of Demographics

As a demographic, the main home owners are people in their later 30's and 40's, whose population had increased. The rise in the population growth of people in their 30's may have affected the rise in the percentage of home owners of people who are in their 30's. In particular, after 2008, when the second baby boomer generation (born 1971-1974, aged 34-37 in 2008), who accounts for a large part of the total population, reached their later 30's, as the population of people in their 30's increased, the percentage of home owners in their 30's also increased. It seems possible that the increasing population percentage of people in their 30's—the popular age for purchasing a home—is driving up the statistics for home owners who are in their 30's. In fact, while the national number of people aged 35-39 years old has grown, going from 8.115 million people in 2000 to 9.786 million people in 2010, a 21% increase, the number of people in that age group in the Tokyo area went from 2.353 million in 2000 to 3.06 million in 2010, a 30% increase. This means the 35-39 year old population has increased at a higher rate in the Tokyo area than the national rate (Graphic 127). Even for the percentage of people aged 35-39 years old within the population of people in their 30's, the growth margin in the Tokyo area is higher than the national rate, having gone from 46.3% in 2000 to 54.1% in 2010, a 7.8% increase, while nationally the percentage has gone from 48.0% in 2000 to 54.0% in 2010, a 6% increase (Graphic 128).

Graphic 127 Trend in Demographics by Age Group

(Note) Tokyo Area: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa prefectures

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"
Graphic 128 Breakdown of Population in their 30's

(Note) Tokyo Area: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, and Kanagawa prefectures

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Census"

## ③ Changes in the Home Purchasing Environment

## (A) House prices

The change in house prices in the Tokyo area is also thought to have contributed to the recovering trend in the homeownership rate of young people. From the latter half of the 1980's to the beginning of 1990's, the steep rise in land prices nationwide drove the house prices up as well. This trend was especially noticeable in the Tokyo area, and when the drop in house prices occurred in the mid-1990's, the drop was even lower in the Tokyo area. From this, we can infer that in the Tokyo area, comparing the period from late 1980's to the beginning of 1990's and the 2000's, the house prices saw a bigger drop relative to the rest of the country, which may have prompted more people to purchase a home (Graphic 129).

## (B) Mortgage Rates

The fall in mortgage rates may also be another reason that prompted the young people in the Tokyo area to purchase housing. Mortgage rates reached 8.5% in 1990, during the economic bubble, but dropped to 2.5% in 1998, and remained at around the same level since then (Graphic 130).

Graphic 129 Trend in Condominium Prices

(Note) Condominium prices: Selling price of condominiums sold nationwide from January to December in a year (As a rule, refers to mid-to-high-rise co-sale private housing with more than three stories. Does not include investment properties, fixed-term lease properties, rental properties, non-residential properties, non-condominium units, shops, or offices).

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Real Estate Economic Institute Co., Ltd. "Condominium Market Trends Nationwide"

Graphic 130 Trend in Mortgage Rates

(Note) 1 Medium value from variable interest rates from commercial banks (Long-term prime rate-linked floating rate used for before 1993)

2 Interest rates from the beginning of the last month (End of the year interest rates used for before 1993)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: Bank of Japan "Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly"
## (Intention to Own a Home Remains at High Levels)

The homeownership rate of young people continues to decline nationwide, but when looking at the intention to own land and/or building, though there is a gradual decline in the percentage of people who want to own both land and building, the level of intention remains at high levels of around 80%. Meanwhile, the percentage of people who don’t mind renting (rented houses) is slowly but steadily rising (Graphic 131).

Source) MLIT "Public Opinion Survey on Land Issues" for 1993, "Survey on citizens' perception on land issues" for 1998 and after

## (Increase in Percentage of People Residing in Private Rental Housing)

If we look at the trend in young people’s households by the home owned, while the homeownership rate is declining as we mentioned in the previous paragraph, the percentage of households that reside in a rented houses is growing. In particular, the percentage of privately-rented housing is rising. The percentage of households residing in housing owned by a public corporation has decreased from 9.8% to 5.2%, and those in issued houses from 8.3% to 6.8% since 1983 to 2008, while the percentage of

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Housing Survey", "Housing and Land Survey"

households residing in privately-rented housing has risen, from 39.7% to 59.7% (Graphic 132). When looking at the percentage of people moving into public housing or Urban Renaissance Agency rental housing by age group, the percentage of young people (under 40 years old) out of the total number of people moving into such housing is decreasing yearly (Graphic 133, 134).

Graphic 133 Age of Head of Household for People Residing in Public Housing

(Note) Does not include people of unknown age Source) MLIT

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Urban Renaissance Agency “The Residents Census in UR Rental Housing”
Graphic 139 Trend in Disposable Income

(Note) 1 Estimates from working households

2 Total households: calculated by the weighted average disposable income of single person households and rent payment of households with more than two people

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure"

## (Difference in Quality between Privately-owned Homes and Rental Housing)

In this section we will compare the differences between privately-owned homes and the rental housing where many young people reside.

## ① Evaluation of Privately-owned Homes and Rental Housing

Looking at the evaluation of housing (all ages), the dissatisfaction rate for home owners (percentage of people who answered, “Somewhat dissatisfied”, “Very dissatisfied”) is 28%, whereas for people in privately-rented housing the rate was at a much higher 42% (Graphic 140). When the dissatisfaction regarding housing was broken down in items of dissatisfaction, the dissatisfaction rate for people in rental housing was higher as a whole, in comparison to private home owners, especially for sound insulation-related items (Graphic 141).

Source) MLIT "2008 Comprehensive Survey on Housing and Living Environments"

Graphic 141 Dissatisfaction Rate for Housing by Item

Source) MLIT "2008 Comprehensive Survey on Housing and Living Environments"
Graphic 143 Housing Stock for Households of Young People (Head of household under 40 years old) with more than Two People

(Note) Square footage is the value (average value) calculated by multiplying the middle square footage of total square footage of each footage division by the number of housing units, and dividing that by total square footage by the total number of housing units. (30-49m² is 40m², 50-69m² is 60m², 70-99m² is 85m², 100-149m² is 125m², but under 29m² is calculated as 29m², and over 150m² as 150m²) Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC “2008 Housing and Land Survey”

Comparison of Floor Space Area by Number of Units and Number of Households by Number of People in a Household Residing in Privately-rented Housing where Head of Household is Under 40 Years Old
## ③ Barrier-free Capability, Energy-saving Performance

Rates that indicate how cooperative residential buildings are becoming barrier-free show that the percentage of cooperative residences that have a special ramps for things like baby strollers in shared spaces—such as the entrance—is at 41.2% for privately-owned homes and 8.9% for rental housing (Graphic 145). In terms of energy-saving performance, the percentage of privately-owned homes with double-glazed windows or double sash is 27.6%; for rental housing the percentage is 12.0% (Graphic 146).

## (Creating an Optimal Environment for Raising Children)

The residence itself is not the only thing that enriches everyday life. The environment around the residence must also be well-developed. When a survey asked what the important elements are for raising children, 36.9% listed the following: "Playgrounds for children, such as parks", "Safety of nearby roads for pedestrians", "Accessibility to kindergarten, elementary school", "Availability of child care support services", "Accessibility to child care, nursery". This shows that people are looking for residences that have facilities that support the raising of children in the surrounding area $ ^{Note} $ (Graphic 147).

Graphic 147 Important Elements for Raising Children

30-39 years old | | | | | | | | | | | | |

(Note) Targeted households of people aged 30-39 years old raising children

Source) MLIT "2008 Comprehensive Survey on Housing and Living Environments"

Note Regarding the number of wait-listed children for getting in to a nursery, the number was starting to increase from 17,926 children in 2007, but in 2011, the number saw the first declining trend in four years. In 2012, the number had continued decreasing since the previous year, and became 24,825 children. As one of the measures to solve this issue, the nurseries have been working to increase their capacity, and in 2012 the capacity reached 2.24 million children, which shows a consistent increase from 2.03 million children capacity in 2004.
## Section 3 Changes in People's Activities

## (1) Trend in Outings

## (The Steady Rate of Outings)

The “Nationwide Person Trip Survey” $ ^{Note} $ tracks the outings rate (percentage of the residential population who go out) from 1987 to 2010 by age groups. On a weekday, in the three major metropolitan areas and in provincial city areas, the outings rate for age groups of people older than 40’s increase the older they get, while the outings rate of the younger generations have stayed fairly level (Graphic 148, 149). On holidays, in the three major metropolitan areas the trend is similar to weekdays, with outings rate getting higher as the age group gets older, and staying level for younger generations (Graphic 150). In the provincial city areas, the outings rate on holidays from 1987 to 1999 declined for all ages, including the younger generations, but from 1999 to 2010 the rate appeared to be recovering (Graphic 151).

Source) MLIT "Nationwide Person Trip Survey"

Source) MLIT "Nationwide Person Trip Survey"

(Number of trips taken have declined in three major metropolitan areas, but remain level in provincial city areas)

Next, we will look at the number of trips (when a person goes from one place to another for some specified reason or goal) taken in 1 day per person. For weekdays in the three major metropolitan areas, the number of trips taken by the younger generations has been decreasing from 1987 to 2010. However, considering the fact that the outings rate has not changed in spite of the declining number of trips, it may be that the number of errands or goals taken care of in one outing
has decreased. For weekdays in the provincial city areas, both the outings rate and the number of trips have remained level for the younger generation from 1999 to 2010 (Graphic 152, 153).

Graphic 152 Number of Trips taken in 1 day per Person in the Three Major Metropolitan Areas (Weekday)

If we look at the number of trips taken by young people on a weekday in the three major metropolitan areas, the trip number for commuting reasons is rising for women, while the number of trips for personal reasons have dropped significantly, showing that the social advancement of women has led to a shift from personal trips to commuting trips, and that other trips that were for multiple reasons and combined with personal errands has also decreased. For men, the number of personal trips decreased significantly from 1987 to 1999, but from 1999 to 2000 the numbers have been recovering (Graphic 154).

The changes in the number of trips taken by young people on a weekday in the provincial city areas show a similar pattern. The women’s number of trips for commuting has been increasing while personal trip numbers have been decreasing, and the number of personal trips have been increasing for men. In the provincial city areas, the growth in the number of personal trips for men is more significant than the drop in the number of personal trips for women, which means that the total number of personal trips for both men and women has increased. In this way, the weekday pattern of women’s number of commuting trips increasing and personal trips decreasing, and the men’s number of personal trips recovering, can be seen in both the three major metropolitan and provincial city areas (Graphic 155).

Graphic 154 Number of Trips in the Three Major Metropolitan Areas by Trip Reason (Weekday)

Source) MLIT "Nationwide Person Trip Survey"
Graphic 155 Number of Trips in the Provincial City Areas by Trip Reason (Weekday)

Source) MLIT "Nationwide Person Trip Survey"

Similar to weekdays, the number of trips taken by young people in the three major metropolitan areas on holidays has been declining from 1987 to 2010. The outings rate has not changed, though the number of trips has decreased, which may be due to the fact that the number of errands or goals taken care of in one outing has decreased (Graphic 156). The number of trips taken by young people in the provincial city areas on holidays has declined from 1987 to 1999, as has the outings rate, but from 1999 to 2010 the numbers appear to be recovering (Graphic 157).

Graphic 156 Number of Trips in 1 Day per Person in the Three Major Metropolitan Areas (Holiday)

Graphic 157 Number of Trips in 1 Day per Person in the Provincial City Areas (Holiday)

The decrease in the number of trips taken by young people in the three major metropolitan areas on holidays can be attributed to the decrease in the number of personal trips for both men and women. In contrast, the recovering numbers for trips taken by young people in provincial city areas on holidays can be attributed to the increase in personal trip numbers for men and women. From this we can see that there is a difference in trend for going on outings between young people in the three major metropolitan areas and the young people in provincial city areas (Graphic 158, 159).
Number of Trips in the Three Major Metropolitan Areas by Trip Reason (Holiday)

Source) MLIT "Nationwide Person Trip Survey"

Number of Trips in the Provincial City Areas by Trip Reason (Holiday)

Source) MLIT "Nationwide Person Trip Survey"