Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
### TABLE 2.23: KOREAN REACTION FUNCTION DISCOUNT RATE, 1980: IV - 1990: IV

CONSTANT	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	IP(-1)	IP(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)	DR(-1)	ρ	R²	DW
-.031	.109	.681	.386	.106	1.812
(-.722)	(.111)	(.737)	(2.365)
.002	.758	-2.458	.323	.186	1.912
(.146)	(.361)	(-1.498)	(2.102)
-.024	.00003	-.00002	.358	.034	1.818
(-.999)	(1.148)	(-.666)	(2.243)
.023	.740	-3.014	.317	.201	1.791
(.766)	(.397)	(-1.768)	(2.092)
.026	-.663	-1.971	.330	.179	1.818
(.836)	(-.519)	(-1.714)	(2.149)
-.015	-.00001	.00001	.417	.096	1.841
(-.450)	(-.418)	(.433)	(2.607)
-.023	.189	.125	.386	.104	1.856
(-.564)	(.225)	(.158)	(2.318)
-.011	.871	-1.166	.413	.104	1.856
(-.501)	(.501)	(-.717)	(2.519)

See Table 2.1

### TABLE 2.24: KOREAN REACTION FUNCTION MONEY SUPPLY, 1980: IV - 1990: IV

CONSTANT	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	IP(-1)	IP(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)	M(-1)	ρ	R²	DW
.033	-.099	-.166	.369	.144	2.065
(3.794)	(-.861)	(-1.494)	(2.412)
.027	.131	.142	.316	.162	2.048
(3.798)	(.495)	(.694)	(1.994)
.026	-.000002	.000001	.406	.096	2.043
(3.483)	(-.556)	(.352)	(2.559)
.025	.235	.079	.292	.201	1.791
(3.639)	(.979)	(.365)	(1.778)
.024	.105	.254	.312	.185	2.052
(3.414)	(.653)	(1.768)	(2.104)
.022	.000003	-.000002	.416	.119	2.043
(2.960)	(.856)	(-.681)	(2.599)
.031	-.063	-.094	.367	.122	2.086
(3.631)	(-.635)	(-.967)	(2.353)
.026	.223	-.172	.397	.116
(3.582)	(1.082)	(-.859)	(2.535)

See Table 2.1
### TABLE 2.25: INDONESIAN REACTION FUNCTION MONEY SUPPLY, 1976: IV - 1983: IV

CONSTANT	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)	M(-1)	p	R²	DW
.033	.809	-.216	.297	.044	1.946
(2.088)	(.511)	(-.133)	(1.611)
.035	.144	.108	.234	.127	1.956
(3.798)	(1.187)	(.861)	(1.294)
.044	.00001	-.000004	.297	.082	1.813
(3.395)	(1.196)	(-.482)	(1.630)
.032	.064	.307	.278	.058	1.924
(2.248)	(.171)	(365)	(1.422)
.030	.110	.632	.027	.303	1.994
(2.750)	(.250)	(1.314)	(.149)
.031	.00002	-.00001	.329	.053	1.888
(2.095)	(1.952)	(-1.714)	(1.861)
.035	.038	.007	.332	.031	1.970
(3.142)	(.573)	(.107)	(1.849)

See Table 2.1

### TABLE 2.26: INDONESIAN REACTION FUNCTION MONEY SUPPLY, 1983: IV - 1990: I

CONSTANT	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)	M(-1)	p	$ \overline{R}^{2} $	DW
.082	-.029	-.146	-.365	.029	1.901
(5.852)	(-.072)	(-.570)	(1.611)
.092	.429	.114	-.489	.126	1.958
(5.700)	(-1.448)	(.665)	(-2.326)
.094	-.00002	.00005	-.379	.208	1.760
(6.081)	(-1.167)	(2.321)	(-2.094)
.101	-.933	-.025	-.433	.119	1.883
(4.701)	(-1.637)	(-.045)	(-2.188)
.083	-.263	.108	-.381	.084	1.863
(5.674)	(-1.215)	(.578)	(-1.927)
.0446	.00002	-.00001	-.407	.072	1.962
(.828)	(1.195)	(-.936)	(-2.049)
.091	-.209	-.029	-.457	.172	1.954
(6.710)	(-1.996)	(-.411)	(-2.394)

See Table 2.1
### TABLE 2.27: PHILIPPINE REACTION FUNCTION DISCOUNT RATE, 1981: IV - 1990: I

CONSTANT	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)	DR(-1)	ρ	R²	DW
.003	.095	.144	.781	-.430	.252	1.947
(.511)	(.219)	(.384)	(4.396)	(-2.161)
-.021	.429	.351	.052	.336	2.196
(-1.591)	(1.167)	(1.304)	(.241)
-.006	.00007	-.0001	.472	.352	2.125
(-.567)	(1.814)	(-2.739)	(3.227)
-.021	.913	-.013	.094	.361	1.937
(-1.624)	(2.572)	(-.041)	(.461)
-.024	.746	.324	.010	.384	1.975
(-1.909)	(2.946)	(1.315)	(.0476)
.007	-.00003	.00003	.725	-.421	.585	1.832
(.411)	(-1.258)	(1.256)	(4.679)	(-2.191)
-.003	-.186	.437	.495	.335	2.151
(-.242)	(-.875)	(2.642)	(2.568)

See Table 2.1

### TABLE 2.28: PHILIPPINE REACTION FUNCTION MONEY SUPPLY, 1981: IV - 1990: I

CONSTANT	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)	M(-1)	ρ	R²	DW
.018	.169	.246	.556	-.458	.222	2.004
(1.570)	(.368)	(.574)	(2.692)	(-2.305)
.046	.731	-.472	-.161	.020	1.911
(3.220)	(1.882)	(-1.391)	(-.781)
.032	-.00005	-.00002	-.103	.055	1.967
(2.378)	(-.884)	(-.446)	(-.554)
.0429	.148	-.042	.029	-.090	1.967
(2.709)	(.327)	(-.099)	(.144)
.042	.176	-.029	.014	-.082	1.955
(2.709)	(.615)	(-.108)	(.071)
.057	-.00005	.00003	.103	-.011	2.067
(2.343)	(-1.576)	(1.159)	(.571)
.042	.171	.100	-.041	-.059	1.949
(2.938)	(.709)	(.489)	(-.192)

See Table 2.1
TABLE 2.29: JAPANESE REACTION FUNCTION

PERIOD	DEPENDENT VARIABLE	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	IP(-1)	IP(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)
1962:IV - 1973:I	DR	*	***	***	*	***
1962:IV - 1973:I	M2	**	***	**	*
1974:I - 1990:I	DR	***
1973:I - 1990:I	M2	****

$ ^{*} $ : Significance at the 20% level.

** : Significance at the 10% level.

*** : Significance at the 5% level.

**** : Significance at the 1% level.

TABLE 2.30: KOREAN REACTION FUNCTION

PERIOD	DEPENDENT VARIABLE	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	IP(-1)	IP(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)
1970:IV - 1979:IV	DR	**	***
1970:IV - 1979:IV	M2	***	*	*
1980:IV - 1990:I	DR
1980:IV - 1990:I	M2	*

$ ^{*} $ : Significance at the 20% level.

**: Significance at the 10% level.

*** : Significance at the 5% level.

****: Significance at the 1% level.

TABLE 2.31: INDONESIAN REACTION FUNCTION

PERIOD	DEPENDENT VARIABLE	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	IP(-1)	IP(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)
1976:IV - 1983:IV	M2	**
1983:IV - 1990:I	M2	*	***	*	***

$ ^{*} $ : Significance at the 20% level.

** : Significance at the 10% level.

*** : Significance at the 5% level.

**** : Significance at the 1% level.

TABLE 2.32: PHILIPPINE REACTION FUNCTION

PERIOD	DEPENDENT VARIABLE	GNP(-1)	GNP(-2)	PW(-1)	PW(-2)	BP(-1)	BP(-2)	PC(-1)	PC(-2)	DEF(-1)	DEF(-2)	R(-1)	R(-2)	IP(-1)	IP(-2)	E(-1)	E(-2)
1981:IV - 1990:I	DR	***	***	****	***
1981:IV - 1990:I	M2	*

$ ^{*} $ : Significance at the 20% level.

**: Significance at the 10% level.

*** : Significance at the 5% level.

**** : Significance at the 1% level.
### 2.7 Response Function with the Rolling Regression Method

As mentioned above, the Bayesian estimation method employed in the study Asako and Kanoh (1989) resulted in several insights on the objectives of the Japanese monetary policy. Let us briefly review their findings. They revealed that (1) business cycle measured by the fluctuations of the growth rate of real GNP sustained its importance throughout most of the period (1968:II - 1986:II). (2) However, the importance of the inflationary consideration depends on the period. It was highly significant in the interim period between the two oil crises, but not so much in the early 80's. (3) The movements of the exchange rate have increased their significance in the 1980's.

These findings also indicate a limitation of the standard method used in this study. Especially their findings highlight the issue of the continuous change of the importance of the macroeconomic conditions over time. We suspect that the same reasoning might be applicable for the experiences of the other countries: Korea, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Hence we investigate this possibility for four countries.

Though we try to evaluate the possibility of the relevance of the macroeconomic conditions over time, applying Asako's Bayesian method directly to our study is beyond the scope of our paper. Thus, as a first step, we employ a much simpler moving regression method for that purpose. In carrying out rolling regressions, we use the data of the past three years (an admittedly arbitrary choice) to estimate the response function in each period. Using the data of 12 consecutive quarters raised a serious problem for the estimation of the response function for the discount rate: since the changes of the discount rates are discontinuous, the rolling regression method in this setting was not appropriate for the analyses of the discount rate changes. Hence we report the estimated results only for the money supply.

For saving spaces, only estimated results for the first period for Japan are summarized in Tables 2.33 - 2.37. $ ^{10} $ New findings can be summarized as follows.

## (i) JAPAN

For the first period, the most influential macroeconomic condition throughout the period for the implementation of the Japanese monetary policy is the business cycle condition measured by the fluctuations of the industrial production indexes. Regarding the inflationary considerations, though the movements of the GNP price deflator had strong impact in the latter half of the 1960's, wholesale price index was significant in the early
1970's as well. It is quite interesting to see that relevance of the trade considerations depends on the variables considered. As the balance of payments is concerned, significance is only revealed in the 1965. However, reserve outstanding was influential in 1969 and 1970. On the whole, the relevances of the macroeconomic conditions in this period apparently show considerable variability.

For the second period, the former results revealed significance of none of the macroeconomic variables in the response function for the money supply. Nevertheless, the importance of the inflationary consideration was revealed for the early I980's, most strongly with wholesale price indexes, but weakly with consumer price indexes and GNP deflators as well. Moreover, the trade consideration both with balance of payments and reserve outstanding surprisingly retained its significance by this estimation method.

These findings, however, suggest that, in line with Asako and Kanoh (1989), consequential macroeconomic variables for the Japanese monetary policy have been changed continuously during these years.

## (ii) Korea

For the first period, as for our former results, stop-and-go character of the Korean monetary policy is apparently confirmed in these results. Especially the balance of payments retains its significance throughout the period. It is interesting to see that unlike the former result, the movements of the consumer price indexes had some influence in the latter half of the period. This result also echoes with the view of the variability of the macroeconomic objectives of the monetary policy.

For the second period, in our previous results, as Japan, the response function of the money supply did not reveal relevance of any macroeconomic variables. In the new results, it is interesting that stop-and-go character still remains in 1984. Furthermore, in terms of significance of the IP variables, stabilization aspects of the Korean monetary policy can be discerned in 1983. The anti-inflationary aspects with the GNP deflators can be revealed in 1988. These results may also support our view of changing relevances.

## (iii) Indonesia

For the first period, the former results of the response function, none of the macroeconomic variables revealed their importance. On the contrary, in these results, stabilization character of the monetary policy is weakly revealed in 1979. Moreover, monetary policy responded quite strongly to the movements of the trade balance in 1980. Hence the variability of the macroeconomic objective might be supported in this case.

For the second period, earlier result only revealed the significance of the inflationary
consideration with the wholesale price indexes. Nonetheless, the rolling regression method produced many insights here. The inflationary considerations either by using consumer price indexes or GNP deflators substantially increased its significance from 1987. The exchange rate aspects were also taken seriously in the late 1980's.

Hence for the second period, it is possible to claim that monetary policy in Indonesia has regained its stabilization aspects only in the late 1980's.

## (iv) The Philippines

The results for this country are the most puzzling. None of the macroeconomic variables were significant with the expected signs throughout the period, most of the variables were constantly significant with wrong signs.

An idea to reconcile this finding would be the potential time-lag problem concerning the macroeconomic conditions. Nevertheless, this is inconsistent with the conclusion regarding lag issue for this country in the last section. This issue requires further investigations at this point.

#### 2.7. Concluding Remarks

Tentative conclusions obtained in this chapter may be summarized as follows: The monetary policy of Japan and Korea is largely characterized as stop-and-go policy for their first sample period either by standard estimation method or rolling regression method. For the second sample period, the results with standard estimation method, especially the discrepancy between the results for the discount rate and money supply, suggest a strong influence of the financial innovation. Moreover, the information lag problem was not apparently serious for the two economies. The results with moving regression estimation method, however, highlight the changing relevance of the macroeconomic variables over the sample periods for these countries.

Although standard analyses yielded poor results for Indonesia, the time lag in obtaining information on macroeconomic conditions of the economy could be of consequence for this economy; the significance of the trade consideration and exchange rate movements were found by substituting lagged values. Furthermore, the moving regression method supports the view that the main objective of the monetary policy has been changed throughout the two periods.

In contrast, the standard analyses characterize the Philippines monetary policy as systematic stabilization policy. Quite naturally the time lag problem should not be so serious. However, the results with rolling regression method are hard to understand at this stage. Although the information problem and the moving regression estimation added some useful
insights concerning the conduct of the monetary policy in these countries, these results are still quite unsatisfactory under usual standard and merit further investigation.

Finally, before closing this chapter we have to mention a critical limitation of this study. That is, we have excluded a potentially important factor for the implementation of the monetary policy in the developing countries: influence of fiscal policy. For many developing countries with immature tax administration systems, massive fiscal deficit has been, to some extent, financed by money printing. $ ^{11} $ Besides the fiscal deficit problem, it is well-known that monetary policy in developing countries is closely linked to fiscal policy in general. For instance, the Chairman of the Monetary Board of the Bank of Korea is the Finance Minister. He approves its budget and has the power to veto the Board's decision. Sometimes it is even claimed that authorities in developing economies do not pose two independent policy instruments for short-run stabilization purposes. $ ^{12} $ Though four countries examined here were successful in avoiding this practice and we had a data problem with incorporating this factor in this study, without doubt further empirical investigation of this issue is in order. $ ^{13} $
DEP.VAR. GNP

Period 62:III - 73:I

TERM	constant	s. e.	GNP	s. e.	M2(-1)	s. e.	D-W	R2	D-H(ALT)
65.2	0.022	0.012	-0.410	0.262	0.707	0.200	2.091	0.576	-0.670
65.3	0.017	0.010	-0.320	0.229	0.739	0.172	2.482	0.651	-0.790
65.4	0.018	0.010	-0.300	0.237	0.723	0.179	1.930	0.601	-0.710
66.1	0.023	0.005	-0.260	0.113	0.555	0.095	2.848	0.777	-1.300
66.2	0.025	0.007	-0.300	0.142	0.511	0.177	2.175	0.433	-0.540
66.3	0.038	0.013	-0.110	0.149	0.086	0.292	2.096	-0.130	-0.910
66.4	0.051	0.014	-0.170	0.146	-0.240	0.316	1.767	-0.040	-0.500
67.1	0.045	0.014	-0.110	0.154	-0.100	0.317	2.218	-0.160	-0.650
67.2	0.050	0.015	-0.130	0.171	-0.230	0.368	1.705	-0.120	0.670
67.3	0.050	0.014	-0.120	0.171	-0.240	0.327	1.842	-0.120	0.950
67.4	0.054	0.013	-0.160	0.150	-0.310	0.306	1.864	-0.020	0.702
68.1	0.053	0.016	-0.160	0.182	-0.300	0.349	1.819	-0.090	0.456
68.2	0.052	0.015	-0.140	0.197	-0.280	0.336	1.864	-0.110	0.821
68.3	0.057	0.016	-0.230	0.209	-0.370	0.367	1.602	-0.030	1.180
68.4	0.055	0.012	-0.170	0.179	-0.400	0.272	1.984	0.060	1.181
69.1	0.055	0.008	0.153	0.091	-0.640	0.219	1.927	0.423	0.202
69.2	0.050	0.013	0.000	0.115	-0.370	0.338	1.357	-0.080	0.099
69.3	0.042	0.012	-0.050	0.122	-0.090	0.316	1.568	-0.190	1.357
69.4	0.035	0.013	-0.080	0.125	0.124	0.337	1.805	-0.150	0.323
70.1	0.033	0.012	-0.070	0.122	0.176	0.329	1.669	-0.160	0.117
70.2	0.032	0.011	-0.080	0.106	0.230	0.284	1.797	-0.090	0.188
70.3	0.030	0.013	-0.050	0.098	0.255	0.322	1.927	-0.120	0.050
70.4	0.031	0.012	-0.040	0.099	0.242	0.321	2.003	-0.130	-0.060
71.1	0.033	0.013	-0.120	0.091	0.257	0.335	1.821	0.037	0.303
71.2	0.021	0.016	-0.180	0.108	0.640	0.376	1.522	0.318	0.028
71.3	0.019	0.009	-0.140	0.086	0.691	0.197	1.314	0.591	0.564
71.4	0.019	0.010	-0.140	0.089	0.653	0.206	1.460	0.554	0.096
72.1	0.021	0.009	-0.230	0.115	0.643	0.193	1.587	0.583	0.571
72.2	0.021	0.010	-0.220	0.124	0.638	0.207	1.813	0.551	0.205
72.3	0.020	0.011	-0.200	0.133	0.663	0.215	1.548	0.518	0.602
72.4	0.010	0.017	-0.160	0.211	0.893	0.337	1.003	0.366	1.506
73.1	0.033	0.015	-0.190	0.306	0.422	0.285	1.947	0.034	-0.090

Note: s. e. indicates standard error of corresponding variables. D-H(ALT)=Durbin's H (alternative measure) statistic.
DEP.VAR. PW

TERM	constant	s. e.	PW	s. e.	M2(-1)	s. e.	D-W	R2	D-H(ALT)
65.2	0.000	0.008	-1.010	0.314	1.028	0.174	1.982	0.750	-0.290
65.3	0.001	0.008	-0.870	0.359	0.992	0.172	1.893	0.743	0.213
65.4	0.000	0.008	-1.050	0.406	1.085	0.199	1.282	0.730	1.114
66.1	0.011	0.007	-0.390	0.346	0.722	0.180	1.548	0.691	0.932
66.2	0.011	0.010	-0.570	0.356	0.710	0.261	1.539	0.337	0.654
66.3	0.034	0.013	0.000	0.325	0.121	0.326	2.074	-0.200	0.476
66.4	0.044	0.014	-0.010	0.322	-0.150	0.372	1.460	-0.190	0.700
67.1	0.040	0.013	0.066	0.303	-0.050	0.336	2.112	-0.220	0.719
67.2	0.043	0.014	-0.270	0.390	-0.110	0.370	1.730	-0.130	0.769
67.3	0.044	0.012	-0.430	0.410	-0.100	0.316	1.972	-0.050	-0.090
67.4	0.046	0.011	-0.540	0.389	-0.140	0.292	1.844	0.046	0.254
68.1	0.045	0.011	-0.580	0.364	-0.100	0.298	1.936	0.075	0.200
68.2	0.044	0.011	-0.540	0.352	-0.100	0.294	1.984	0.068	0.029
68.3	0.047	0.014	0.063	0.389	-0.270	0.380	1.610	-0.160	1.261
68.4	0.052	0.010	0.371	0.352	-0.470	0.288	2.290	0.077	-1.150
69.1	0.061	0.008	0.507	0.246	-0.760	0.222	2.624	0.485	-2.570
69.2	0.051	0.012	0.205	0.358	-0.400	0.338	1.446	-0.040	-0.210
69.3	0.043	0.013	0.187	0.397	-0.190	0.364	1.704	-0.180	-0.160
69.4	0.040	0.013	0.362	0.358	-0.090	0.378	2.080	-0.090	-1.120
70.1	0.039	0.013	0.374	0.348	-0.070	0.370	1.793	-0.060	-0.720
70.2	0.038	0.011	0.371	0.259	-0.040	0.306	1.994	0.051	-0.500
70.3	0.036	0.012	0.377	0.258	0.010	0.332	2.058	0.068	-0.230
70.4	0.036	0.013	0.321	0.261	0.024	0.343	1.981	0.009	-0.170
71.1	0.032	0.015	0.083	0.286	0.200	0.407	1.743	-0.150	-0.190
71.2	0.013	0.016	-0.320	0.265	0.752	0.396	1.676	0.220	-1.260
71.3	0.015	0.006	-0.560	0.140	0.758	0.132	2.348	0.809	-1.190
71.4	0.018	0.007	-0.540	0.161	0.679	0.150	2.288	0.750	1.090
72.1	0.018	0.010	-0.300	0.179	0.631	0.205	1.288	0.539	1.210
72.2	0.018	0.010	-0.300	0.171	0.636	0.209	1.490	0.543	0.991
72.3	0.017	0.011	-0.220	0.188	0.676	0.224	1.327	0.478	1.108
72.4	0.006	0.016	0.045	0.286	0.930	0.343	0.918	0.328	1.609
73.1	0.028	0.016	-0.140	0.308	0.467	0.321	1.876	0.016	0.113

See Table 2.33
Period 62:III - 73:I

DEP.VAR. BP

TERM	constant	s. e.	BP	s. e.	M2(-1)	s. e.	D-W	R2	D-H(ALT)
65.2	0.016	0.006	0.006	0.001	0.577	0.130	2.761	0.835	-1.640
65.3	0.016	0.006	0.006	0.002	0.590	0.132	2.482	0.823	-0.940
65.4	0.015	0.005	0.007	0.002	0.607	0.109	2.800	0.862	-1.120
66.1	0.016	0.005	0.005	0.004	0.588	0.112	2.662	0.699	-0.840
66.2	0.022	0.008	0.005	0.005	0.409	0.199	1.968	0.235	-0.350
66.3	0.038	0.010	0.009	0.005	0.021	0.262	2.466	0.112	-0.630
66.4	0.054	0.012	0.010	0.005	-0.440	0.304	1.463	0.195	0.331
67.1	0.045	0.011	0.006	0.005	-0.180	0.302	1.922	-0.010	0.278
67.2	0.046	0.013	0.009	0.006	-0.240	0.331	1.539	0.055	0.966
67.3	0.047	0.011	0.009	0.006	-0.280	0.302	1.530	0.031	1.710
67.4	0.049	0.011	0.008	0.006	-0.300	0.294	1.508	0.035	1.676
68.1	0.048	0.012	0.009	0.006	-0.290	0.314	1.398	0.028	2.267
68.2	0.051	0.012	0.009	0.006	-0.380	0.310	1.420	0.078	1.933
68.3	0.052	0.014	0.009	0.007	-0.440	0.371	1.597	0.023	0.354
68.4	0.049	0.010	0.004	0.006	-0.370	0.276	2.037	0.017	0.692
69.1	0.056	0.009	0.004	0.004	-0.580	0.236	2.042	0.309	-0.350
69.2	0.050	0.012	0.003	0.005	-0.370	0.332	1.483	-0.040	-0.430
69.3	0.042	0.011	0.004	0.005	-0.150	0.310	1.770	-0.120	-0.590
69.4	0.036	0.012	0.007	0.005	0.015	0.315	2.339	0.016	-1.320
70.1	0.037	0.012	0.006	0.005	-0.030	0.328	2.182	0.003	-2.600
70.2	0.034	0.011	0.003	0.005	0.105	0.312	2.145	-0.110	-2.280
70.3	0.031	0.013	0.004	0.005	0.162	0.331	2.420	-0.080	-2.500
70.4	0.031	0.012	0.004	0.005	0.160	0.325	2.456	-0.080	-2.570
71.1	0.032	0.013	0.006	0.005	0.136	0.351	2.354	0.014	-3.180
71.2	0.009	0.017	0.007	0.008	0.740	0.409	1.765	0.169	-0.600
71.3	0.014	0.009	0.002	0.006	0.707	0.251	1.522	0.475	0.229
71.4	0.006	0.012	-0.000	0.005	0.943	0.325	1.177	0.482	2.210
72.1	0.006	0.013	-0.000	0.004	0.958	0.321	1.229	0.464	2.183
72.2	0.006	0.013	-0.000	0.004	0.954	0.326	1.132	0.454	2.236
72.3	0.006	0.013	-0.000	0.004	0.987	0.327	1.033	0.470	2.723
72.4	0.009	0.020	0.001	0.006	0.837	0.513	0.943	0.331	2.026
73.1	0.036	0.018	0.003	0.006	0.213	0.472	1.787	0.020	0.594

See Table 2.33
Period 62:III - 73:I

DEP.VAR. PC

TERM	constant	s. e.	PC	s. e.	M2(-1)	s. e.	D-W	R2	D-H(ALT)
65.2	0.010	0.011	-0.170	0.290	0.828	0.253	1.377	0.480	0.769
65.3	0.009	0.009	-0.150	0.240	0.834	0.209	1.688	0.594	0.779
65.4	0.010	0.009	-0.140	0.244	0.802	0.224	1.410	0.544	-0.730
66.1	0.020	0.005	0.261	0.145	0.398	0.137	2.345	0.741	-0.770
66.2	0.020	0.009	0.289	0.254	0.388	0.198	2.066	0.253	-0.790
66.3	0.029	0.012	0.323	0.266	0.135	0.276	2.335	-0.030	-0.800
66.4	0.038	0.012	0.396	0.248	-0.130	0.290	1.827	0.070	-0.200
67.1	0.040	0.011	0.227	0.246	-0.110	0.305	2.053	-0.120	-0.010
67.2	0.043	0.015	0.139	0.344	-0.180	0.366	1.745	-0.170	0.405
67.3	0.046	0.012	0.154	0.303	-0.240	0.340	1.928	-0.150	0.369
67.4	0.048	0.012	0.261	0.295	-0.330	0.325	1.970	-0.060	0.160
68.1	0.045	0.013	0.006	0.248	-0.170	0.350	1.801	-0.190	1.562
68.2	0.045	0.012	-0.030	0.249	-0.180	0.333	1.821	-0.170	1.568
68.3	0.046	0.014	0.093	0.270	-0.280	0.378	1.610	-0.150	1.306
68.4	0.048	0.010	0.128	0.225	-0.370	0.279	2.084	-0.000	0.438
69.1	0.057	0.009	0.047	0.184	-0.580	0.246	1.909	0.249	-0.410
69.2	0.051	0.013	-0.050	0.233	-0.370	0.339	1.345	-0.080	0.332
69.3	0.041	0.012	0.006	0.224	-0.100	0.320	1.643	-0.210	0.702
69.4	0.035	0.013	0.099	0.196	0.045	0.355	1.912	-0.180	-0.800
70.1	0.031	0.013	0.097	0.183	0.139	0.325	1.762	-0.160	-0.480
70.2	0.031	0.011	0.094	0.130	0.176	0.282	1.849	-0.100	-0.380
70.3	0.026	0.012	0.128	0.134	0.267	0.312	1.979	-0.050	-0.030
70.4	0.028	0.012	0.101	0.133	0.244	0.314	1.965	-0.090	-0.040
71.1	0.027	0.013	0.211	0.142	0.247	0.329	1.670	0.069	0.437
71.2	0.008	0.016	0.212	0.195	0.759	0.400	1.250	0.202	0.725
71.3	0.011	0.010	0.087	0.167	0.760	0.218	1.131	0.482	1.006
71.4	0.012	0.010	0.074	0.171	0.731	0.222	1.206	0.449	2.217
72.1	0.012	0.011	0.095	0.174	0.711	0.229	1.143	0.411	1.760
72.2	0.011	0.012	0.098	0.179	0.735	0.237	1.093	0.410	2.047
72.3	0.011	0.012	0.119	0.180	0.749	0.235	1.041	0.425	2.220
72.4	0.002	0.017	0.236	0.284	0.946	0.332	0.934	0.374	1.894
73.1	0.026	0.017	0.190	0.389	0.438	0.295	1.774	0.019	0.326

See Table 2.33