Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
(Note) 1 Only includes couples in their first marriage (results with unknown number of children not included).

2 Total number of couples surveyed (husband & wife): Age group 20-24 years old (1,505 & 922), 25-29 years old (2,687 & 2,533), 30-34 years old (842 & 1,289), 35-39 years old (178 & 420)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: IPSS “Birth Trends Survey (Nation-wide survey regarding marriage and child birth) (Couples survey)”

From such information, we can discern that there are several reasons for Japan’s aging population and low child birth rates. In addition to the decreasing number of young people themselves—the young people being the ones who would be bearing and raising the next generation—due to the increase in people that are unmarried or marry later in life, the number of children couples have also decreasing.

## Column

## Future Prediction of Life Cycle

Rise in pursuit of higher education. Development of people who are unmarried/married later in life. Delayed retirement. Growing average expected life expectancy. These are all indicators of the changes occurring in Japan's society, but when we take a step back to look at each person's life cycle as they are shaped by these changes, how has the “typical” lifecycle been changing? In this column, we will analyze the changes in life cycle by taking a closer look at the generations born in 1950, 1980, and 2000.

For men born in 1950, the average life cycle could be described as follows: start working at age 18, marry at age 28, have his first child at age 29, retire at age 60, live out the rest of his life for 15 years until death at age 75. However, for those born in 1980 and 2000—indeed, the more recent the generation—the milestones of life are more likely to occur later and later in a person's lifespan, due to the rise in percentages of people pursuing higher education, older age of starting employment, marrying later in life, delay in retirement, and growth in average life expectancy. Furthermore, as more people explore alternative lifestyles as they debate whether or not to marry, whether or not to have children, etc., there is no longer a lifestyle followed by a large majority. Instead, there will be several concurrent lifestyles. First of all, the decision of whether or not to marry will be a major demarcation in lifestyle type. For men born in 1950, getting married was part of the average lifestyle, but for generations born in 1980 and 2000, there is a growing number of people who choose to never marry.

Next, among those who do marry, there will be another major lifestyle choice of whether or not to have children. For men born in 1950, having children as part of the average lifestyle, but for generations born in 1980 and 2000, there is a growing number of people who choose to never have children. These same trends are also seen among women.
The population numbers of each life cycle within the graph was calculated from premises below, and reflected in the width of the band

- Single (Never married): Assumption based on average number of unmarried people aged 45-49 and 50-54 from IPSS "Population Statistics (2010 version)" and "Household Projections for Japan (Estimated January 2013)" applied to population of people aged 30; Married couple: Assumption based on average number of married couple only households (Totals from age groups 30-34, 35-39, and 40-44 years old) from "Household Projections for Japan (Estimated January 2013)" applied to population of people aged 30; Family with children: Assumption calculated from percentages of total number of married couples with children households and single-parent with child households (Totals from age groups 30-34, 35-39, and 40-44 years old) from "Household Projections for Japan (Estimated January 2013)" applied to population of people aged 30

## (2) Trend in Residence Areas

## (Population Movement from Rural Areas to Metropolitan Areas Continues but Scale is Decreasing)

After WWII, Japan’s cities at times had an influx of population from rural areas, and at other times sent the population out to rural areas, developing with expansion and contraction of scale. After WWII—particularly during the process of rapid economic growth—with the rise in income levels in urban areas following the changes in the industrial structure, the population density shifted to the three major metropolitan areas from rural regions as people looked for better employment opportunities and higher wages. Since then, from the 1970’s as the period of rapid economic growth came to an end and the income gap between the metropolitan and rural areas lessened, the press of people moving from the rural areas eased, and the excess numbers of people moving to the three major metropolitan areas decreased. In the 1980’s, with the economic expansion, the population influx in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased again, and at the time of the economic bubble burst in 1987, the number of people that moved to Tokyo was over 0.16 million. However, with the recession following the bubble burst the numbers of people moving to Tokyo decreased again, and by the first half of the 1990’s switched to people moving out of Tokyo. However, the latter half of 1990’s saw another influx of people coming into Tokyo, and by 2007 the population level was back to what it was before the bubble burst. Since then, though the scale of the influx has become smaller, the population movement into Tokyo continues (Graphic 86).
(Note) 1 Figures from 1954 to 1972 do not include people moving from Okinawa prefecture.

2 Regions included in each area are as follows. Tokyo area: Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba prefectures; Nagoya area: Aichi, Gifu and Mie prefectures; Osaka area: Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto, and Nara prefectures. Other refers to prefectures not included in the three major metropolitan areas.

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Annual Report on Internal Migration in Japan Derived from the Basic Resident Registers"

There may be several reasons for this type of regional transfer movement occurs. One of the main reasons being economic, with people moving to look for wealthier employment opportunities and higher levels of income. Other reasons include academic pursuits, marriage, buying of property, and other societal reasons related to life cycle. Another possibility is a demographic reason, where the movement of people may depend on the volume of the population in their younger years, when people are most likely to be active in moving around for economic and societal reasons. In regards to the Tokyo area, where the population influx continues, we will analyse the trends in population changes in the Tokyo area by age group, as the trend in the inflow and outflow of young people significantly affects overall population changes.

For Tokyo prefecture, during the first half of the rapid economic growth period between the latter half of the 1950's to the 1960's, there was a major influx of people in their late teens and early 20's. Since then, the influx of this age group into Tokyo has continued, but at a smaller scale, particularly with a significant decline in the number of people in their late teens. While the influx of people in their late teens reached approximately 0.50 million from 1955 to 1960, the number has decreased to around 0.08 million from 2005 to 2010 (Graphic 87). $ ^{Note} $

Graphic 87 Trend in Population Increase by Age Group (Tokyo)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Note As evident from the graph above, by comparing the population of groups of same aged people at two points, we can see that the totals of social and natural increases in the population of young people appears as the change in population level. As the natural increase seems to be minimal compared to the social increase and decrease, we shall treat the change in population as change due to social affects, and analyse the trend in influx and departure of the population accordingly (Graphic 87, 90).
## (Rise in Intention to Enroll in Local Universities)

There are several reasons to explain this decline in the number of young people moving to Tokyo. Aside from the economic reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph, there is also a heightening of locally-oriented spirit in the rural areas. Looking at the trend of the population that move to a different region for academic pursuits, there is a rise in the percentage of students who enroll in universities in the same prefecture or city where they went to high school, contributing to the decline in the percentage of students who move to Tokyo from rural areas (Graphic 88, 89).

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Ministry of Education "School Basic Survey"

2 Figures within () is the number of new students (Unit is people)

Source) Developed by MLIT from: Ministry of Education "School Basic Survey"

## (Decrease of People Moving to One of the Three Prefectures Neighbouring Tokyo)

There has been a change in trend in the departing population, as well as the influx population. From the latter half of the 1960's in the 1970's, a large number of the population between the ages of late 20's to 30's moved out of the Tokyo city area. In the 1970's the number of people leaving Tokyo reached 0.3 million people from the population in their late 20's and 0.2 million people in their early 30's. From the 1980's, though the population departure from Tokyo continued, it was a much smaller scale, until by the later 1990's the number had dropped to 0.051 million people in their late 20's and 0.036 million people in their early 30's, and 0.018 million people in their late 30's. In the 2000's, the population of people in their late 20's to 30's again began to move in to Tokyo, and there developed a pattern of people who "Move to Tokyo in their late teens or early 20's, then move back out of Tokyo in late 20's and 30's", which was a major change in the consistent postwar population movement of the young generation (Graphic 87).

There is a link between this movement of the population departing from Tokyo and the population moving in to the three prefectures neighbouring Tokyo (Chiba, Saitama, Kanagawa). We can observe from the number of people aged late 20's to 30's that moved out of Tokyo in the latter half of 1960's to 1970's, and the population influx of the people in the same age group into the three neighbouring prefectures (Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa), that a majority of the population
Graphic 91 Population Movement from Tokyo to the Three Neighbouring Prefectures

that left Tokyo moved to the neighbouring prefectures. This was also evident in the resident transfer survey results in the “Census”. In particular, the population movement from Tokyo to the neighbouring prefectures around the 1970’s was significant (Graphic 90, 91).

Trend in the Population Increase/Decrease by Age Group (Three Prefectures Neighbouring Tokyo)

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Census"

The population movement of people aged late 20’s to 30’s from Tokyo to the neighbouring three prefectures from the latter half of 1960’s to the 1990’s is related to the trend in buying homes. From the end of WWII to early 1970’s, finding housing in Tokyo became a major challenge due to the enormous population influx into the Tokyo area. This lead to a rapid rise in housing construction and land development in the suburban areas of Tokyo, such as the Tama New Town developments in the Tama area (Construction started in 1966, occupancy started in 1971). This was reflected in the number of new housing starts in the Tokyo area, which reached its peak in 1972, towards the end of the rapid economic growth period, with over 0.6 million homes (Graphic 92). This shows how the population of people aged late teens to early 20’s, who moved to Tokyo for academic or employment reasons, started to move out to the suburbs of Tokyo and to the three neighbouring prefectures to buy housing when they reached ages of later 20’s and 30’s.

(Note) 1 Figures for 1990, 2000, and 2010 created based on “Residency region 5 years ago”. Since the estimates from 1960 are from figures based on “Residency region 1 year ago”, the numbers have been multiplied by 5. Figures for 1970 was based on “Previous residency region for people who moved to current residency after January 1965”, while figures for 1980 was based on “Previous residency region for people who moved to current residency after October 1975”.

2 Regarding the population movement of people aged 30-34, because the census in 1960 did not have a category for people aged 30-34, data from people aged 30-39 was used. For the population movement of people aged 35-39, because the census in 1970 did not have a category for people aged 35-39, data from people aged 35-44 was used.

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

In contrast to this movement, as mentioned in an

earlier paragraph, the characteristic of the population of young people of 2000's in Tokyo, is that there remains an excess influx population of people in their later 20's and 30's. This may be due to an increase in the number of people who moved to Tokyo in their teens and early 20's deciding to stay in Tokyo, and a population of people who moved to Tokyo in their later 20's and 30's. The background for this is that land for building large-scale apartment complexes became easier to purchase, due to falling property value and businesses letting go of their properties. This made the housing supply rise, particularly in Tokyo, which helped the population remain in Tokyo (Graphic 93).
Trend in Number of New Housing Units (Tokyo Area)

Graphic 93 Trend in Average Housing Prices by Major Metropolitan Areas

## (Rise in Percentage of Population Residing in Tokyo)

In recent years, the continuing population influx of the late 20’s to 30’s age group, in addition to the late teens to early 20’s age group, seems to show that in the younger generations, there is a rising percentage of the population who reside in Tokyo as they get older. If we look at the population percentages of people that reside in Tokyo by generation, in generations born before 1966 to 1970, the percentage of Tokyo residents peaks at age 20 to 24 years old, then decreases. In generations born between 1976 to 1980, the percentage of Tokyo residents rises as the population age group gets older (Graphic 94).

Graphic 94 Trend in Percentage of Population Residing in Tokyo by Generation

Source) Developed by MLIT from: MIC "Census"
## (Development of Urban Recurrence of Residential Distribution)

This concentration of population in Tokyo—the “Urban Recurrence” trend—can be seen in the changes in the population distribution of young people in the Tokyo Area.

In this section, we will analyse the trend in the social rise and fall of the population of young people in the past and present in the Tokyo area, in order to compare the trend in residency location change of past and present young people from their teens into their 20's, and from their 20's to 30's.

More specifically, by comparing the distribution of the population that was in their teens in 1985 (born 1966-1975, aged 37-46 in 2012), and that of the population in their 20's in 1995, we will be able to see the trend in the societal rise and fall of the current teens-to-20's population by area. We will also be able to see the trend in the societal rise and fall of the current teens-to-20's population by area by comparing the distribution of the population that was in their teens in 2000 (born 1981-1990, aged 22-31 in 2012) and that of the population in their 20's in 2010. Then by comparing the societal rise and fall trends from these two points in time, we will be able to analyse the differences in the past and present trends in residency location changes of young people in their late teens and 20's.

In the same way, we will compare the population distribution of people in their 20's in 1985 (born 1956-1965, aged 47-56 in 2012) and the population distribution of people in their 30's in 1995, and compare the population distribution of people in their 20's in 2000 (born 1971-1980, aged 32-41 in 2012) and the population distribution of people in their 30's in 2010. Comparing the societal rise and fall trends from these two points in time shall further clarify the trends in residency location changes of people in their 20's and 30's.

## ① Population Movement within the Tokyo Area

In the Tokyo area, there is a clearly visible movement of the current young generation choosing to reside in the city center, compared to previous generations of young people. By the time the people who were in their teens in 1985 reached their 20's in 1995, the population growth concentrated around west Tokyo and extended to places like the Saitama prefecture, which is right next to Tokyo. Within the 23 districts of Tokyo, while growth was seen in places like the Shinjuku and Bunkyo Wards, there was hardly any growth in the three central city wards: Chiyoda, Chuo, and Minato Wards (Graphic 95). In contrast, when the people who were in their teens in 2000 reached their 20's in 2010, the population saw significant growth in all 23 districts of Tokyo, including the three central city wards, and while some population growth could still be seen in the urban areas of Tokyo and in the three prefectures neighbouring Tokyo, compared to before, the areas where population growth is concentrated has grown smaller; for example along certain parts of the railway system (Graphic 96).
This trend of the population concentrating in the urban central areas is more noticeable in the 20’s to 30’s age group than in the teens to 20’s age group. When those were in their 20’s in 1985 had reached their 30’s in 1995, aside from a few districts such as the Edogawa Ward, there was hardly any population growth in the 23 wards of Tokyo, while the population grew in an extensive area of the three neighbouring prefectures (Graphic 97). On the other hand, when those were in their 20’s in 2000 had reached their 30’s in 2010 (the second baby boomer is included in this generation), the most noticeable population growth in Tokyo was in the bay area wards like Koto, Minato, and Chuo Wards, while the population growth in the suburbs of Tokyo and in the neighbouring prefecture was in a much more limited area than before (Graphic 98).

Graphic 95

Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Tokyo Area (1985 teens → 1995 20's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 96

Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Tokyo Area (2000 teens $ \rightarrow $ 2010 20's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Tokyo Area (1985 20's → 1995 30's)

## Graphic 97

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 98

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Tokyo Area (2000 20's → 2010 30's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"
## ② Population Movement within the Nagoya Area

This population movement into city centers is evident not only in Tokyo area, but also in other metropolitan areas and urban parts of regional areas. In the Nagoya area, while there was hardly any population growth when those who were in their teens in 1985 reached their 20's in 1995, by the time those who were in their teens in 2000 reached their 20's in 2010, the population growth was concentrated in the wards near Nagoya station, in areas such as the Naka and Nakamura Wards (Graphic 99, 100).

There is a similar population movement visible in the population of people in their 20's and 30's as well, with the population concentration moving to the city centers. When people who were in their 20's in 1985 reached their 30's in 1995, the population growth was noticeable in Nagoya City, cities near Nagoya, and surrounding cities. In contrast, when people who were in their 20's in 2000 reached their 30's in 2010, the population growth was seen in the districts at the center of Nagoya City, like Naka and Atsuta Wards (Graphic 101, 102).

Graphic 99

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 100

Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Nagoya Area (2000 teens → 2010 20's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

## Graphic 101

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Nagoya Area (1985 20's → 1995 30's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 102

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Nagoya Area (2000 20's → 2010 30's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"
## ③ Population Movement within the Osaka Area

In the Osaka area, when those who were in their teens in 1985 reached their 20's in 1995, in addition to some population growth in some districts, such as the Miyakojima Ward, there was also some population growth apparent in an extensive area of the surrounding cities of Osaka, and neighbouring prefectures like Hyogo and Nara prefectures (Graphic 103). Meanwhile, when those who were in their teens in 2000 reached their 20's in 2010, the population growth was concentrated in the districts at the center of Osaka proper, such as Chuo, Nishi, and Naniwa Wards (Graphic 104).

A similar population movement of the concentration moving to the city center is visible in the population of people in their 20's and 30's as well. When people who were in their 20's in 1985 reached their 30's in 1995, aside from a few districts such as the Miyakojima and Tsurumi Wards, the city center area did not see much population growth. However, when people who were in their 20's in 2000 reached their 30's in 2010, there was a noticeable population growth in the districts at the center of Osaka, like the Chuo, Nishi, and Fukushima Wards (Graphic 105, 106).

Graphic 103

Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Osaka Area(1985 teens → 1995 20's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 104

Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Osaka Area(2000 teens → 2010 20's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Osaka Area (1985 20's → 1995 30's)

Graphic 105

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 106

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Osaka Area (2000 20's → 2010 30's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"
## ④ Population Movement within the Sapporo Area

Next, we will look at the trend in city center residence in cities in other regions. In the Sapporo area, when the people who were in their teens in 1985 reached their 20's in 1995, not including the area around Sapporo train station, there was a population growth centered around places near railways like the JR (Japan Railway) lines and subway lines, which extended over a large area in Higashi, Chuo, Shioishi, and Toyohira Wards. However, when those who were in their teens in 2000 reached their 20's in 2010, it was apparent that the population growth concentration was along subway lines centered around Sapporo station (Graphic 107, 108).

For the population in their 20's and 30's, there is a similar movement of the population concentrating around the central areas. When those in their 20's in 1985 reached their 30's in 1995, there was hardly any growth in areas along the subway lines centered around Sapporo station, but when those who were in their 20's in 2000 reached their 30's in 2010, even in Chuo Ward the most noticeable population growth is particularly evident in the areas near Sapporo station (Graphic 109, 110).

Graphic 107

Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Sapporo Area (1985 teens → 1995 20's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Sapporo Area (2000 teens → 2010 20's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 109

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Sapporo Area (1985 20's → 1995 30's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"

Graphic 110

## Societal Rise and Fall of Young Population in Sapporo Area (2000 20's → 2010 30's)

Source) Developed by the MLIT from: MIC "Census"