Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
Source) MLIT

View of Eruptions and Changes in Nishinoshima Island

Expanding sphere of Nishinoshima Island (December 25, 2014)

View of eruptions (December 25, 2014)

Change chart of Nishinoshima Island (until December 25, 2014)

## Section 7

## Driving the Implementation of Water Cycle

The Basic Act on Water Cycle was resolved in March 2014 and came into effect in July. The act sets fifth guiding principles of water cycle, such as actively promoting approaches to maintaining or restoring sound water cycle, measures designed to implement these principles and which stipulates the state and local public entities' liabilities, etc. in the light of the fact that water nourishes life on earth in its process of cycle, playing a significant role in the national livelihood and industrial activities. At the same time, the Headquarters for Water Cycle Policy was inaugurated in the Cabinet, when a framework for the state working in accord to tackle a host of tasks, including the preparation of a basic plan for water cycle aimed at driving the implementation of water cycle, in a comprehensive, integrated manner was in place. The Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Akihiro Ohta Note, was appointed the first minister in charge of Water Cycle Policy in May of the same year.

In July, the Headquarters for Water Cycle Policy had its first meeting, at which Director-General Shinzo Abe, the PM, spoke to the effect: “Since ancient times, water has nourished fields and sustained social and cultural prosperity and is still offering “great blessings” to us, but at times, water could bring out “disaster,” such as landslides and drought. In order for us to enjoy the “blessings” of water eternally, it would be of vital importance to maintain sound water cycle with the impact of human activities upon water taken into consideration. It is my hope that the government will approach this goal in a unified fashion with the Headquarters for Water Cycle Policy acting as a command center.”

Since a basic plan for water cycle is scheduled to win a cabinet council decision at the earliest timing before the summer of 2015, the MLIT is committed to promoting the steady implementation of the water cycle policy.
Efficient, Prioritized Deployment of Measures

## 1 Automating, Streamlining and Upgrading Construction Production System Workflow

As Japanese workforce continues to shrink as a whole, the need augments to automate, streamline and upgrade construction management system workflow for higher productivity while endeavoring to improve the cost structures in the successive stages of social infrastructure development planning, engineering, construction and management in order to develop social infrastructures efficiently and effectively for maximized social infrastructure stock effects and to assure their quality in the future. The MLIT promotes a variety of approaches that help improve productivity from perspectives of developing and utilizing new technologies and methods, leveling construction timings and maintaining fair construction periods, expediting communication, making efficient use of technicians and craftspersons.

## 2 Assuring Public Works Quality and Fostering and Maintaining Bearers

(1) Amendments to the Three Public Work Bearers Acts

The 186th session of the Diet in 2014 approved amendments to the “Act for Promoting the Assurance of Quality of Public Works (Quality Assurance Act)”, the “Act for Promoting Proper Tendering and Contracting for Public works (Tendering and Contracting Act)” and the “Construction Business Act (the so-called Three Public Work Bearers Acts)” with a view to assuring the present and future quality of public works and fostering and maintaining bearers of public works from medium- to long-term perspectives.

In September of the same year, amendments to the basic policies based on the Quality Assurance Act and to the rationalization guidelines based on the Tendering and Contracting Act were decided at a cabinet meeting. The basic
metropolitan airport, a gateway to Japan, facilitating the ease of access, making barrier-free towns, providing multilingual versions of guidance signs and maps, installing free public LAN, delivering special license plates to commemorate the Games and so on.
付 属 資 料 II

日本モデルの方程式体系及び変数一覧表
## 1 構造方程式

〔支出ブロック〕

## （1） 民間最終消費支出（実質）

C/(YD/PC*100)=0.15537+(&1(I),I=0,2)*(RBOND-GR(PC,1)*400)+0.014474*(NW.-1/YD)+0.78122*(C.-1/(YD/PC*100))
(3.1148)
(4.9944)
(11.814)
-0.0070267*(D864)+0.0072454*(D822)+0.0072766*(D824)+0.0073064*(DEL(D854,1))
(2.9322)
(3.0085)
(3.0550)
(4.4898)
SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=100.00 K2=100.00 LAG &1
0 -0.489E-04 (-1.7148)
1 -0.246E-04 (-2.2779)
2 -0.214E-06 (-0.0093597)
SUM=-0.737E-04
R2C=0.95499 SE=0.0022937 DW=1.8833 (1981.2-1989.1)

## （2） 民間住宅投資（実質）

IHP-RHP=-10130 - 0.17708*(KHP.-1)+(&1(I),I=0,6)*(YD/PC*100)
(5.4413)(2.3101)
+(&2(I),I=0,4)*(RBOND-GRY(PIHP@)*100)*PIHP@/PC*KHP.-1)-2976.2*(D832C872)+1116.5*(DEL(D881,1))

R2C=0.93093 SE=546.32 DW=1.2374 (1980.1-1989.1)

## （3） 民間企業設備投資（実質）

IFP-RFP=-40010.-0.047677*(KFP.-1)+(&1(I),I=0,2)*(GNP)+(&2(I),I=0,2)*(KFP.-1*UCCPF/PGNP@)
(3.6342)(1.1152)
-8307.1*(D874)*4513.7*(D884)
(6.4193) (3.3173)

SHILLER DEGREE=0 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=18000.
LAG &1
0 0.12254 (2.0462)
1 0.14169 (2.8740)
2 0.081348 (1.7551)
SUM=0.34558

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=100000.
LAG &2
0 -0.050744 (-2.5208)
1 -0.025662 (-2.6904)
2 -0.0023615 (-0.21286)
SUM=-0.078767
R2C=0.95825 SE=1203.1 DW=1.6828 (1980.1-1988.4)

## （4） 民間在庫品增加（実質）

IIP=4211.9+ 129.89*(0)+0.060879*(MG-XG)-0.10734*(C)

(3.3695)(5.2735) (3.7732) (4.6248)

R2C=0.46175 SE=499.60 DW=2.0401 (1979.1-1988.4)

## (5) 財貨輸出（実質、SNAベース）

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{XG})=-1.1334+0.98225^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{TL\_X\&JA})) $

$ (1.7012)(17.644) $

R2C=0.90917 SE=0.014000 DW=1.9162 (1981.1-1988.4)

## (6) 財貨輸入（実質、SNAベース）

$ \log(MG)-log(MGC)=-1.5380-0.051616*(D861C884) $

$ (155.70)(4.3695) $

R2C=0.31144 SE=0.017274 DW=1.8213 (1979.1-1989.1)

## (7) サービス輸出及び海外からの要素所得（名目、円建）

$ \mathrm{LOG(XSV)}=-7.0794+1.0253^{*}(\mathrm{LOG(BPXS)})+0.97346^{*}(\mathrm{LOG(FXS)}) $

$ (17.616)(50.026) $ $ (26.349) $

R2C=0.98884 SE=0.017429 DW=1.9299 (1979.1-1989.1)

## (8) サービス輸入及び海外への要素所得（名目、円建）

$ \log(\text{MSV})=-7.4788+1.0658^{*}(\log(\text{BPMS}))+0.94205^{*}(\log(\text{FXS})) $

(11.475) (29.720) (17.601)

R2C=0.96419 SE=0.019186 DW=2.4340 (1979.1-1989.1)

〔労働、生産、稼働率ブロック〕

## （9） 労働力人口

$ \log(LF)=0.25024+0.12374*(log(WI/CPI*100))+0.63106*(log(POP.-20))+0.013032*(D831C)+0.0077583*(D824) $

$ (1.4182)(1.9053) $

$ (5.6441) $

$ (5.1035) $

$ (3.4461) $

$ -0.0023025*(D864) $

$ (1.3145) $

R2C=0.96924 SE=0.0019948 DW=1.8439 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (10) 就業者数

DEL(LOG(LE),4)=-0.11408*(DEL(LOG(W/PGNP@.-1),4))+(&1(I),I=0,4)*(DEL(LOG(GNP),4))+0.010409*(D831C833)

(2.2792)

(6.7898)

-0.0080646*(D841C842)-0.0078608*(D852C854)

(4.1357)

(4.9734)

##### SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=0.100000

LAG &1

0 0.15305 (4.9466)

1 0.10661 (5.7242)

2 0.060213 (3.4594)

3 0.019604 (1.2465)

4 -0.016032 (-0.57764)

SUM=0.32345

R2C=0.95122 SE=0.0025811 DW=1.6958 (1979.1-1989.1)

## (11) 自营業者数

LSE/LE=0.39526+(&1(I),I=0,2)*(WI/PC)-0.0068327*(D833C)-0.0036098*(D854C862)-0.00053119*(TIME)

(17.732)

(4.3424)

(3.0967)

(2.6504)
SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=10.000
LAG &1
0 -0.0017530 (-2.1685)
1 -0.887E-03 (-2.2142)
2 -0.196E-04 (-0.11463)
SUM=-0.0026596
2C=0.97914 SE=0.0017219 DW=2.1853 (1980.3-1989.1)

## (12) 鉱工業生産指数

$ \mathrm{LOG}(0)=-4.6114-0.81431^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{KIIP}.-1))+1.0943^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{A}))+0.44285^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{XG})) $

$ (4.1550)(3.2929) $

$ (8.8321) $

$ (18.664) $

+(&1(I),I=0,4)*(RBOND-GR(DPI,4)*100))

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=200.00
LAG &1
0 -0.485E-03 (-1.1537)
1 -0.362E-03 (-1.1639)
2 -0.239E-03 (-1.1597)
3 -0.119E-03 (-1.1132)
4 -0.395E-06 (-0.0094188)
SUM=-0.0012053

R2C=0.99392 SE=0.0084741 DW=2.1539 (1981.1-1988.4)

## (13) 稼働率指数（製造業）

$ \log(CU)-log(0/LE)=7.7306-0.42549*(log(KFP.-1/LE)) $
$ (36.239)(18.043) $
R2C=0.91025 SE=0.0070212 DW=1.6079 (1981.1-1989.1)

## 〔賃金、価格ブロック〕

## (14) 一人当り俸給、賃金

GRY(WI)=0.032808+(&1(I),I=0,2)*(LOG(UR))+(&2(I),I=0,8)*(GRY(PC@))-0.017813*(D801C813)-0.018261*(D833)
(2.3896)
(3.9354)
(2.1798)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=10.000
LAG &1
0 -0.017150 (-1.6997)
1 -0.0085476 (-1.6954)
2 0.4470E-04 (0.055345)
SUM=-0.025653

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000 K2=1.0000 LAG &2
0 0.26072 (9.6891 )
1 0.21653 (13.826 )
2 0.17350 (20.162 )
3 0.13312 (15.928 )
4 0.096712 (8.6524 )
5 0.065219 (5.0509 )
6 0.038825 (3.1079 )
7 0.016725 (1.7025 )
8 -0.0028169 (-0.35532 )
SUM=0.99853

## (15) 国内卸壳物価指数（消費税除<）

DPI@/DPI@.-4=-0.29245+(&1(I),I=0,12)*(ULC/ULC.-4)+(&2(I),I=0,3)*(PMU/PMU.-4)+(&3(I),1=0,5)*(CU/100)(1.1058)
#### +0.051581*(D801C804) (6.1962)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000
LAG &1
0 0.070808 (1.4077)
1 0.074926 (1.9038)
2 0.078888 (2.4318)
3 0.082569 (2.8660)
4 0.085528 (3.1777)
5 0.087319 (3.4305)
6 0.086976 (3.6420)
7 0.083363 (3.7483)
8 0.075917 (3.6767)
9 0.064190 (3.4094)
10 0.047955 (2.9838)
11 0.028006 (2.3716)
12 0.0054817 (0.58787)
SUM=0.87193

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000
LAG &2
0 0.063354 (7.6781)
1 0.049079 (8.8547)
2 0.032436 (6.2436)
3 0.012410 (2.1598)
SUM=0.15728

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000
LAG &3
0 0.084422 (2.7720)
1 0.068568 (3.2150)
2 0.052407 (3.1940)
3 0.035511 (2.5906)
4 0.017622 (1.6512)
5 -0.736E-03 (-0.079288)
SUM=0.25779

R2C=0.97035 SE=0.0095390 DW=1.5718 (1979.1-1989.1)

## (16) 民間企業在庫残高デフレーター（消費税除く）

GF(PIIP@)=0.86486*(GF(DPI@))+0.065912*(GF(PMU))+0.067932*(GF(PXG))
(42.795)
(8.8086)
(2.8363)
R2C=0.99998 SE=0.0035864 DW=1.9819 (1979.1-1989.1)

## (17) 消費者物価指数（消費税除<）

$ \log(\text{CPI@})=-2.0166+(\&1(\text{I}),\text{I}=0,12)^{*}(\log(\text{W}))+(\&2(\text{I}),\text{I}=0,5)^{*}(\log(\text{DPI@}))-0.0043716^{*}(\text{D882C891}) $

(3.6493)

(1.6790)
SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000
LAG &1
0 0.094168 (5.0779)
1 0.085100 (6.1595)
2 0.076082 (7.7421)
3 0.067255 (9.8375)
4 0.058740 (11.122)
5 0.050566 (9.5631)
6 0.042739 (7.0573)
7 0.035205 (5.1991)
8 0.027888 (3.9626)
9 0.020800 (3.1174)
10 0.013884 (2.4883)
11 0.0069917 (1.8373)
12 0.8591E-04 (0.034723)
SUM=0.57950
R2C=0.95696 SE=0.0024822 DW=1.8120 (1981.2-1989.1)

## (18) 民間最終消費支出デフレーター（消費税除く）

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PC}@)=0.052474+0.98767^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{CPI}@))-0.0097833^{*}(\mathrm{D874C891}) $

(0.83092) (73.667) (8.0196)

R2C=0.99503 SE=0.0023683 DW=1.6466 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (19) 民間企業設備投資デフレーター（消費税除く）

GRY(PIFP@)=-0.013952+(&1(I),I=0,3)*(GRY(DPI)+(&2(I),I=0,4)*(GRY(W))

(3.4269)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=0.100000 LAG &1
0 0.25836 (6.6884)
1 0.15478 (6.9086)
2 0.048290 (2.3291)
3 -0.05550 (-2.1031)
SUM=0.40592

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000
LAG &2
0 0.090526 (2.0951)
1 0.067958 (2.1233)
2 0.045296 (2.1127)
3 0.022590 (1.9911)
4 -0.101E-03 (-0.020792)
SUM=0.22627

R2C=0.84790 SE=0.0048768 DW=1.0124 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (20) 民間住宅投資デフレーター（消費税除く）

GRY(PIHP@)=0.013756+(&1(I),I=0,1)*(GRY(DPI@))+0.023364*(D872C881)
(8.0405) (5.4165)
SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=0.100000 LAG &1
0 0.28868 (5.4824)
1 0.27540 (5.0431)
SUM=0.56409
R2C=0.70387 SE=0.0077225 DW=1.8610 (1981.4-1989.1)

## (21) 政府最終消費支出デフレーター（消費税除く）

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PCG}@)=-1.0438+(\&1(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,3)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{W}))+(\&\mathrm{2}(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,3)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{DPI}@)-0.035594^{*}(\mathrm{D824})-0.081076^{*}(\mathrm{D864})) $

(2.3500) (5.1527) (10.987)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=10.000 LAG &1
0 0.27817 (2.1839 )
1 0.19080 (4.2150 )
2 0.10344 (2.7131 )
3 0.016073 (0.13377 )
SUM=0.58849
SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=10.000
LAG &2
0 0.092242 (1.4236)
1 0.063016 (2.1886)
2 0.033787 (2.8502)
3 0.0045568 (0.098673)
SUM=0.19360

R2C=0.98432 SE=0.0067284 DW=1.3744 (1980.1-1989.1)

## (22) 公的固定資本形成デフレーター（消費税除く）

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PIG@})=1.6242+(\&\mathrm{I}(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,3)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{DPI@})+(\&\mathrm{I}(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,3)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{W}))+0.00048216^{*}(\mathrm{CU}) $

(7.6017) (1.5520)

$$ \begin{aligned}&.LOG(PIG@)=1.6242+(\&1(I),I=0,3)*(LOG(DPI@)+(\&2(I),I=0,3)*(LOG(\\\ &(7.6017)\\ &\\ &SHILLER\quad DEGREE=1\quad S.C=N\quad E.C=Y\quad K1=1.0000\\ &LAG\quad\&1\\ &0\quad0.23042\quad(13.975\quad)\\ &1\quad0.15321\quad(14.296\quad)\\ &2\quad0.076181\quad(13.252\quad)\\ &3\quad-0.533E-03\quad(-0.14840\quad)\\ &SUM=0.45928\\ &\\ &SHILLER\quad DEGREE=1\quad S.C=N\quad E.C=Y\quad K1=1.0000\\ &LAG\quad\&2\\ &0\quad0.051278\quad(5.5532\quad)\\ &1\quad0.034163\quad(6.0662\quad)\\ &2\quad0.017020\quad(4.9089\quad)\\ &3\quad-0.119E-03\quad(-0.033013\quad)\\ &SUM=0.10234\\ &\\ &12C=0.85310\quad SE=0.0036053\quad DW=2.1207\quad(1979.1-1989.1)\\ \end{aligned} $$

## (23) 財貨輸出デフレーター（円建、SNAベース）

$ \log(PXG)-\log(FXS)=-5.5437+1.0082*(log(PXGBP)) $
(24.776)(21.313)
R2C=0.93405 SE=0.016199 DW=2.2794 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (24) サービス輸出デフレーター（円建、SNAベース）

GF(PXS)=0.46669*(GF(PXG))+0.060472*(GF(FRT))+0.48353*(GF(DPI@))+0.027249*(D873)
(8.0954)
(2.6327)
(7.9162)
(2.1272)

R2C=0.99985 SE=0.012468 DW=1.5045 (1979.1-1988.4)

## (25) 財貨輸入デフレーター（円建、SNAベース）

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PMG})-\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{FXS})=-4.8840+0.88478^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PMGCC})) $

$ (14.460)(11.754) $

R2C=0.81082 SE=0.018693 DW=1.8505 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (26) サービス輸入デフレーター（円建、SNAベース）

GF(PMS)=0.26466*(GF(PMG))+0.22397*(GF(FRT))+0.24487*(GF(PXGF&))+0.28005*(GF(FXS))

(11.098) (7.9472) (8.7003) (10.501)

R2C=0.99986 SE=0.012275 DW=1.5780 (1979.1-1988.4)

## 〔分配ブロック〕

## (27) 家計配当

$ \mathrm{LOG(YDV)=+(}\&\mathrm{1(I),I=1,4)^{*}(}\mathrm{LOG(YC+IVAC)} $

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=1.0000
LAG &1
1 0.23200 (2.4058)
2 0.21805 (5.5870)
3 0.19456 (4.7997)
4 0.19767 (2.0726)

SUM=0.84228

R2C=0.99774 SE=0.061411 DW=1.6566 (1981.1-1988.4)

## (28) 家計利子賃貸料・対家計民間非営利団体財産所得

$$ DEL(YPR,1)=3627.0+0.21769*(RT*(DT.-1+CD.-1)/100-YPR.-1)\cdot(3.0385)(2.9855) $$

R2C=0.19826 SE=649.55 DW=2.0780 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (29) 民間法人企業所得（配当控除前）

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{YC})-\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{Y})=-3.4121+(\&\mathrm{I}(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,6)^{*}(\mathrm{CU})-0.20057^{*}(\mathrm{D}812\mathrm{C}813)+0.11207^{*}(\mathrm{D}863\mathrm{C}864) $

(11.163) (4.1570) (2.3233)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=

LAG &1

0 0.0038942 (3.2452)

1 0.0031183 (3.9045)

2 0.0023797 (3.6684)

3 0.0017075 (2.6607)

4 0.0011108 (1.8161)

5 0.00056749 (1.1568)

6 0.1448E-04 (0.099823)

SUM=0.012820

R2C=0.52539 SE=0.064931 DW=1.3191 (1979.1-1989.1)

## (30) 個人企業所得

$ YSE+IVAS=-6399.7+0.70977*(W*LSE) $

$ (2.5945)(17.581) $

R2C=0.90591 SE=872.57 DW=1.6032 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (31) 固定資本減耗（民間計）

CCAP/4.0=1451.1+0.022618*(KFPNV.-1+KHPNV.-1)+426.99*(D852C)+145.27*(D872C)

(7.1022)(34.389)

(7.9716)

(2.7520)

R2C=0.99790 SE=70.242 DW=1.4950 (1982.1-1989.1)

## (32) 固定資本減耗（民間企業設備）

CCAC/4.0=1551.8+0.026262*(KFPNV.-1)+392.71*(D852C)+120.65*(D872C)

(8.5301)(28.296) (7.3206) (2.3584)

R2C=0.99717 SE=67.941 DW=1.5041 (1982.1-1989.1)

## (33) 固定資本減耗（公的計）

CCAG/4.0=68.071+0.0043084*(GNPV.-4)-0.012312*(DEL(IGV,4))-398.32*(D852C)-144.13*(D872C)-113.80*(D884C891)

(0.99964)(16.726) (3.8571) (26.968) (9.9884) (6.5896)

R2C=0.97792 SE=19.010 DW=1.7174 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (34) 民間企業在庫品評価調整額

IVAP=222.00+0.99423*(DEL(PIIP,1)*(IIP/2+KIIP.-1*4)/100)

(3.0574)(35.029)

R2C=0.97456 SE=366.38 DW=2.1581 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (35) 民間法人企業在庫品評価調整額

IVAC=0.97623*(IVAP)

(749.51)

R2C=0.99994 SE=18.487 DW=1.7342 (1981.1-1989.1)
## (36) 社会保障及びその他雇主負担

YOLI=+(&1(I),I=0,6)*(CSS)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=S K1=50000.

LAG &1

0 0.25061 (11.136)

1 0.20757 (19.012)

2 0.16507 (24.016)

3 0.12388 (12.527)

4 0.085725 (7.2302)

5 0.049844 (4.5858)

6 0.018998 (2.7261)

SUM=0.90169

R2C=0.99952 SE=505.36 DW=1.5167 (1981.1-1989.1)

〔財政ブロック〕

## (37) 個人税及び罰金，強制手数料

$ \log(\text{TYP}+\text{TPS})=-2.8633+(\&1(\text{I}),\text{I}=0,2)*(\log(\text{YW}+\text{YPR}+\text{YDV}+\text{YSE}+\text{IVAS}))+0.0036454*(time) $

(1.5337) (1.6822)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=10.000 LAG &1

0 0.69132 (6.2837)

1 0.34565 (6.2849)

2 -0.541E-05 (-0.0019960)

SUM=1.0370

R2C=0.98455 SE=0.027099 DW=2.0697 (1978.2-1988.4)

## (38) 民間法人企業税及び罰金

TYC+IFPV*TINCR=+(&1(I),I=0,2)*(T1*(YC+IVAC-YDV)+T2*YDV)+1982.0*(D852C)+2893.5*(D873C)

(4.8578) (6.2663)

R2C=0.99692 SE=899.16 DW=1.8092 (1981.2-1989.1)

## (39) 関税

$ \log(\text{TIM})=-8.3111+0.73328^{*}(\log(\text{TCT}*\text{TTCR}*\text{MG}*\text{PMG}))-0.087274^{*}(\text{D861C862}) $

$ (8.2548)(14.877) $

$ (4.6073) $

R2C=0.90393 SE=0.024965 DW=1.8626 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (40) 間接税（関税を除く）

$ \log(\text{TIC-VATCOM})=-6.2393+1.2891^{*}(\log(\text{GNPV})) $

(13.409)(34.861)

R2C=0.96811 SE=0.038079 DW=1.5609 (1979.1-1989.1)

## (41) 一般政府利子支払

INTG=-14697.+0.0065809*(S&RBOND*SBPUB.-1)+266.90*(TIME)

(9.8534) (8.0229) (25.438)

R2C=0.96370 SE=378.29 DW=2.7253 (1981.4-1989.1)

## (42) 社会保障給付
R2C=0.98874 SE=797.11 DW=1.8991 (1979.1-1989.1)

BSS=-17364.+0.35971*(WI*(POP-LF))+0.56590*(WI*U)
(18.038)(20.406)
(2.1335)

## (43) 社会保障负担

CSS= $ -12194.+0.25857*(YWI) $
(10.858) (32.635)
R2C=0.96377 SE=1314.7 DW=2.0634 (1979.1-1989.1)

## 〔国内金融ブロック〕

## (44) 現金通貨

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{CURP})-\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PGNP})=-10.812+(\&1(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,2)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{GNP}))+(\&2(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,4)^{*}(\mathrm{RBRA}) $

(5.1370)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=10.000
LAG &1
0 0.86387 (7.9707)
1 0.43194 (7.9713)
2 0.1148E-04 (0.0070833)
SUM=1.2958

R2C=0.92130 SE=0.016202 DW=2.1355 (1981.2-1989.1)

## (45) 要求払預金

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{DD})-\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PGNP})=-1.7686+0.65960^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{GNP}))+(\&\mathrm{I}(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,3)^{*}(\mathrm{RBRA}) $

(0.99441)(4.8017)

R2C=0.87526 SE=0.019582 DW=2.0683 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (46) 定期性預金

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{DT})-\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PGNP})=-13.659+(\&1(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,3)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{GNP}))+(\&\mathrm{2}(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,5)^{*}(\mathrm{RBRA}) $ (10.909)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=10.000 LAG &1
0 0.41384 (2.0852)
1 0.42165 (6.1152)
2 0.42947 (5.9637)
3 0.43728 (2.1680)
SUM=1.7022

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=10.000 LAG &2
0 -0.0073208 (-2.9791)
1 -0.0062274 (-3.4736)
2 -0.0051308 (-3.5268)
3 -0.0040165 (-3.2455)
4 -0.0029638 (-2.7136)
5 -0.0020616 (-1.4666)
SUM=-0.027721

R2C=0.98296 SE=0.0086400 DW=2.3702 (1981.2-1989.1)

## (47) 通貨当局對外純資產

NFA=-1072.2+1.0565*(GFX*(FXS+FXS.-1)/2/1000.0)
(2.8154)(21.388)

## (48) 通貨当局預金通貨銀行向け信用

RESB/GNPV=0.031309-0.0029838*(RDIS)-0.6221E-04*(GR(FXS,1)*400)+0.0067529*(D872)

(6.9743) (2.6403) (3.7523) (4.7622)

R2C=0.63526 SE=0.0017949 DW=1.8541 (1982.1-1989.1)

## (49) 現先レート

RBRA=24.435+(\&1(I),I=0,4)*(GR(DPI,1)*400)+(\&2(I),I=0,2)*((MBU+RESB-RESR)/GNPV*100)(15.513)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=10.000
LAG &1
0 0.067627 (3.0194)
1 0.049270 (3.3383)
2 0.039891 (2.6041)
3 0.041904 (3.3473)
4 0.030263 (2.3320)
SUM=0.22895

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=10.000
LAG &2
0 -1.6506 (-11.492)
1 -0.82817 (-11.650)
2 -0.0038652 (-0.12235)
SUM=-2.4826

R2C=0.88229 SE=0.31670 DW=1.7291 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (50) 利付国債利回り

RBOND=1.3135+(\&1(I),I=0,6)*(RBRA)+(\&2(I),I=0,7)*(GR(DPI,1)*400)+2.3138*(D863C873)-1.0809*(D844C851)
(7.9343)
(8.3974)
(3.1368)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=20.000 K2=20.000 LAG &1
0 0.24111 (4.4261)
1 0.21861 (8.1967)
2 0.19279 (11.383)
3 0.15958 (6.6797)
4 0.11639 (4.2002)
5 0.062814 (2.5763)
6 0.0034557 (0.15735)
SUM=0.99475

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=20.000 K2=20.000 LAG &2
0 0.18419 (7.8002)
1 0.16146 (12.334)
2 0.14096 (9.3466)
3 0.11837 (7.7226)
4 0.086117 (6.1446)
5 0.050346 (3.7365)
6 0.013997 (1.1231)
7 -0.019888 (-1.1596)
SUM=0.73555
R2C=0.89174 SE=0.45752 DW=2.0446 (1982.1-1989.1)

## 〔国際収支、為替レートブロック〕

## (51) 財貨輸出（実質）

$ \log(XGBP)=1.0042*(log(TL\_X\&JA)) $
(2783.9)
R2C=1.00000 SE=0.010032 DW=2.1794 (1981.1-1988.4)

## (52) 鈊物性燃料輸入（実質）

$ \log(\text{MMFC})=8.6801+(\&1(\text{I}),\text{I}=0,3)^{*}(\log(0))+(\&2(\text{I}),\text{I}=0,4)^{*}(\log(\text{PMFC}*\text{FXS}/\text{DPI})))-0.011105^{*}(\text{TIME}) $
$ (14.302) $
$ (4.9420) $
$ +0.050214^{*}(\text{D834C843}) $
$ (2.9603) $

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=10.000
LAG &1
0 0.65645 (3.9789)
1 0.36110 (5.4105)
2 0.064977 (0.93605)
3 -0.23195 (-1.3790)
SUM=0.85057

R2C=0.86974 SE=0.022112 DW=2.1777 (1981.1-1988.4)

## (53) 食料・原料品輸入（実質）

$ \log(MRFC)=2.7405+0.75424*(LOG(GNP+M))+(\&1(I),I=0,7)*(LOG(PRFC*FXS/DPI@)) $
$ (2.2197)(9.4646) $

R2C=0.98491 SE=0.015757 DW=2.0631 (1981.1-1988.4)

## (54) 製品輸入（実質）

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{MMGC})=-8.8215+(\&1(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,4)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{GNP}+\mathrm{M}))+(\&2(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,4)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PMGC}*\mathrm{FXS}/\mathrm{DPI}@))+(1.6012) $

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000
LAG &1
0 0.76855 (4.7805)
1 0.56842 (5.3103)
2 0.37229 (4.7257)
3 0.18067 (2.9479)
4 -0.0063278 (-0.10641)
SUM=1.8836
R2C=0.97586 SE=1912.0 DW=2.3244 (1980.1-1988.4)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000
LAG &2
0 -0.37357 (-3.1408)
1 -0.25526 (-3.2451)
2 -0.14821 (-2.2793)
3 -0.058408 (-1.0567)
4 0.018159 (0.33277)
SUM=-0.81729

R2C=0.89094 SE=0.059616 DW=2.0018 (1980.1-1988.4)

## (55) 財貨輸入（名目，ドル建，国際収支ベース）

LOG (BPMG)=0.99065*(LOG(MGCV))

(994.91)

R2C=0.99996 SE=0.013015 DW=1.7928 (1980.1-1988.4)

## (56) 財貨輸出デフレーター（ドル建）

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PXGBP})=4.4318+(\&1(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,3)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{FXS}))+0.72535^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{DPI@}))+0.23909^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PXGF}\& $ ) (9.6451) (5.4597) (2.4366)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000
LAG &1
0 -0.29364 (-10.187)
1 -0.19274 (-10.653)
2 -0.095371 (-7.3779)
3 -0.723E-03 (-0.054295)
SUM=-0.58247
2C=0.96030 SE=0.014729 DW=2.0649 (1979.1-1988.4)

## (57) 投資收益受取（ドル建）

BPXSIIV=7612.0+0.46057*(S&RLUS/100.0*KLA.-1)+4836.4*(TIME871)

(5.3265)(9.6736)

(10.817)

## (58) 投資収益支払（ドル建）

BPMSIIV=12427.+0.42213*(S&RBOND*FXS/FXS.-1)/100.0*KLL.-1)+5532.2*(TIME871)

(3.6142)(1.1318)

(13.794)

R2C=0.93941 SE=1428.6 DW=1.5203 (1982.1-1989.1)

## (59) サービス収支受取（投資収益を除く）

$ \mathrm{LOG(BPXSOV)}=-4.0505+(\&1(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,3)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG(FRT)})+(\&2(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,8)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG(BPXG})) $ (3.3140)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=20.000

LAG &1

0 0.25834 (2.8754)

1 0.21175 (4.7467)

2 0.16516 (3.5084)

3 0.11854 (1.2673)

SUM=0.75379

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=20.000

LAG &2

0 0.12453 (2.6829)

1 0.11732 (3.3784)

2 0.11009 (4.7207)

3 0.10281 (8.0435)

4 0.095476 (12.241)

5 0.088088 (5.7508)

6 0.080656 (3.0802)

7 0.073200 (1.9444)

8 0.065733 (1.3324)

SUM=0 85790
R2C=0.85253 SE=0.028823 DW=1.8849 (1980.1-1989.1)

## (60) サービス収支支払（投資収益除く）

OG(BPMSOV)=+(&1(I),I=0,2)*(LOG(FRT))+(&2(I),I=0,3)*(LOG(BPMG))*(&3(I),I=0,8)*(LOG(YD/FXS))

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=20.000

LAG &1

0 0.29693 (3.0457 )

1 0.14848 (3.0459 )

2 0.2663E-04 (0.019000 )

SUM=0.44543

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=20.000

LAG &2

0 0.12643 (3.3425 )

1 0.084274 (3.3450 )

2 0.042133 (3.3394 )

3 0.8604E-05 (0.0061399 )

SUM=0.25285

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=20.000

LAG &3

0 0.11462 (4.4375 )

1 0.10771 (5.7613 )

2 0.10077 (8.4566 )

3 0.093774 (14.809 )

4 0.086674 (13.590 )

5 0.079475 (6.6518 )

6 0.072206 (3.8724 )

7 0.064905 (2.5287 )

8 0.057598 (1.7520 )

SUM=0.77773

2C=0.99997 SE=0.028031 DW=1.5723 (1981.1-1989.1)

## (61) 対外直接投資資産増（ドル建）

$ \mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{BPDA})=-9.9515+(\&1(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,4)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{BPXG}))+(\&\mathrm{2}(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,4)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{FXS}))+0.38230^{*}(\mathrm{D864})-0.36738^{*}(\mathrm{D871}) $

(1.9345)

(2.5755)

(2.5332)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=10.000
LAG &1
0 0.51698 (1.6735)
1 0.47750 (2.7913)
2 0.43805 (6.9591)
3 0.39871 (2.8703)
4 0.35939 (1.3086)
SUM=2.1906

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=N K1=5.0000
LAG &2
0 -0.58632 (-2.5764)
1 -0.43277 (-3.3355)
2 -0.27972 (-4.7847)
3 -0.12711 (-1.2166)
4 0.025316 (0.12620)
SUM=-1.4006

## (62) 対外長期資産残高（対外直接投資を除く、ドル建）

$ \log(\text{KLSA}*\text{FXS}/\text{NW})=2.8719+0.94829*(\text{SUM}(\log((1+\text{US\_RL}/400)/(1+\text{RBOND}/400)*\text{FXS}/\text{FXS}.-1),0,1)/2)+0.021513*(\text{TIME}) $
$ (4.3360)(6.0450) $
$ (3.0398) $
$ +0.045031*(D844C853) $
$ (2.1890) $
R2C=0.63980 SE=0.027047 DW=1.6494 (1981.1-1988.4)

## (63) 対外長期負債残高（ドル建）