Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
5 - 0.053070 (-4.9979)
6 - 0.035732 (-4.2094)
7 - 0.018060 (-3.1658)
8 - 0.234E - 03 (-0.061161)

SUM = -0.61844

R2C = 0.79611 SE = 0.0038285 DW = 2.3408 (1984.4 - 1992.4)

## (18) 稼働率指数（製造工業）

$ \log(CU)=6.8256+(\&1(I),I=0,2)*(LOG(GDP/GDP))+(\&2(I),I=0,4)*(LOG(KFP.-1/LE))+0.035565*(DC853) $

(19.248)

-0.023396*(D864)+0.020502*(D901C914)

(2.9100)

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N EC=Y K1=1.0000

LAG &1

0 1.1376 (10.204)

1 0.56904 (10.199)

2 0.00045538 (0.049467)

SUM=1.7071

SHILLER DEGREE=1 S.C=N E.C=Y K1=1.0000

LAG &2

0 -0.094376 (-4.5614)

1 -0.070703 (-5.5461)

2 -0.047097 (-4.8084)

3 -0.023619 (-2.7185)

4 -0.152E-03 (-0.016457)

SUM = -0.23595

R2C=0.80519 SE=0.0092143 DW=1.7711 (1983.2-1992.4)

## [賃金、価格ブロック]

## (19) 雇用者一人当たり俸給・賃金

GRY(WI) = 0.041190 + (\&1(I),I = 0,2)*(UR) + (\&2(I),I = 0,8)*(GRY(PC@)) - 0.011727*(D851C854)
(4.5449)
+ 0.015571*(D881C902) - 0.024551*(D922C)
(7.0685)

SHILLER DEGREE = 1 S.C = N E.C = Y K1 = 10.000
LAG &1
0 - 0.0062613 (- 2.5692 )
1 - 0.0031258 (- 2.6024 )
2 0.9469E - 05 (0.017522 )

SUM = - 0.0093776

SHILLER DEGREE = 1 S.C = N E.C = Y K1 = 1.0000
LAG &2
0 0.23023 (11.513 )
1 0.19901 (17.059 )
2 0.16810 (27.821 )
3 0.13777 (23.979 )
4 0.10826 (13.300 )
5 0.079741 (8.3293 )
6 0.052198 (5.6571 )
7 0.025447 (3.5807 )
8 - 0.780E - 03 (- 0.14440 )

SUM = 0.99997

R2C = 0.76146 SE = 0.0054144 DW = 2.1134 (1984.1 - 1992.4)

## (20) 国内卸壳物価指数（消費税除<）

GRY(DPI@) = -0.19656 + (\&1(I), I = 0, 12)*(GRY(ULC)) + (\&2(I), I = 0, 3)*(GRY(PMU)) + (\&3(I), I = 0, 5)*(CU / 100)
(5.8923)
-0.0090676*(D852C861) + 0.0081789*(D892C893) - 0.010751*(D902C903)
(3.5946)
(2.9780)
(3.9278)

SHILLER DEGREE = 1 S.C = N E.C = Y K1 = 1.0000
LAG &1
0 0.026388 (1.0591)
1 0.030750 (1.4949)
2 0.034971 (2.0051)
3 0.038535 (2.4980)
4 0.041328 (2.8909)
5 0.042821 (3.1307)
6 0.042586 (3.2188)
7 0.040286 (3.1817)
8 0.035654 (3.0356)
9	0.029037	(2.8197	)
10	0.020702	(2.5381	)
11	0.011239	(2.1165	)
12	0.0011566	(0.35589	)
SUM = 0.39540
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 1.0000
LAG	&2
0	0.064039	(12.299	)
1	0.044851	(13.273	)
2	0.024481	(8.9332	)
3	0.0027890	(0.96097	)
SUM = 0.13616
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 1.0000
LAG	&3
0	0.067485	(5.3158	)
1	0.053114	(5.7769	)
2	0.038824	(5.6064	)
3	0.024868	(4.6087	)
4	0.011557	(2.9542	)
5	- 0.0011562	(- 0.35820	)
SUM = 0.19469
R2C = 0.90596	SE = 0.0032797	DW = 1.6531	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (21) 民間企業在庫投資デフレータ（消費税除く）

## (22) 消費者物価指数（消費税除<）

$ \log(\text{CPI@}) = -1.6222 + (\&1(\text{I}),\text{I}=0,12)*(\log(\text{W})) + (\&\&2(\text{I}),\text{I}=0,5)*(log(\text{DPI@})) $ (5.6281)
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 1.0000
LAG	&1
0	0.083590	(5.0887	)
1	0.075947	(6.5409	)
2	0.068339	(8.9811	)
3	0.060790	(12.504	)
4	0.053317	(12.670	)
5	0.046026	(8.7539	)
6	0.038952	(5.9355	)
7	0.032051	(4.2912	)
8	0.025318	(3.2660	)
9	0.018776	(2.5715	)
10	0.012449	(2.0555	)
11	0.0062304	(1.5257	)
12	0.7745E - 04	(0.030003	)
SUM = 0.52186
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = N	K1 = 1.0000
LAG	&2
0	0.082951	(3.1348	)
1	0.075867	(4.5206	)
2	0.068899	(7.8518	)
3	0.062164	(7.1548	)
4	0.055631	(3.3417	)
5	0.049169	(1.8681	)
SUM = 0.39468
R2C = 0.97771	SE = 0.0025912	DW = 1.8496	(1983.2 - 1992.4)

## (23) 消费者物価指数（保健医療）

LOG(MPI) = 1.8456 + (&1(I),I = 0,3)*(LOG(CPI)) + 0.063401*(D844C) + 0.028421*(D864C) - 0.018730*(D911C921)
(10.126)	(16.067)	(8.3782)	(4.4347)
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 1.0000
LAG	&1
0	0.29036	(13.272	)
1	0.19376	(13.975	)
2	0.097049	(11.967	)
3	0.00019625	(0.027772	)
SUM = 0.58137
R2C = 0.98417	SE = 0.0070758	DW = 1.4766	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (24) 民間最終消費支出デフレータ（消費税除く）
$$ \begin{array}{c}\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{PC}@)=0.75682+\&\mathrm{I}(\mathrm{I}),\mathrm{I}=0,3)^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{CPI}@))\ $ 3.6743)\\\text{SHILLER}\quad\text{DEGREE}=1\quad\text{S.C=N}\quad\text{E.C=Y}\quad\text{K1}=1.0000\\\text{LAG}\quad\&\text{1}\\\text{0}\quad0.42370\quad(18.686\quad)\\\text{1}\quad0.28236\quad(18.765\quad)\\\text{2}\quad0.14111\quad(18.444\quad)\\\text{3}\quad-0.722E-04\quad(-0.031446\quad)\\\text{SUM}=\quad0.84709\\\text{R2C=0.88243}\quad\text{SE}=0.0022980\quad\text{DW}=1.8149\quad\text{(1981.1-1992.4)}\end{array} $$

## (25) 民間企業設備投資デフレータ（消費税除く）

$$ \begin{aligned}&GRY(PIFP@)=-0.010423+(&\&1(I),I=0,3)^{*}(GRY(DP1@))+(\&2(I),I=0,4)^{*}(GRY(W))-0.012764\star(D891C894)\\&\quad(2.9642)\quad(4.7117)\\&SHILLER\quad DEGREE=1\quad S.C=N\quad E.C=Y\quad K1=0.100000\\&LAG\quad\&1\\&0\quad0.17787\quad(7.6964\quad)\\&1\quad0.11422\quad(7.4423\quad)\\&2\quad0.047508\quad(2.8909\quad)\\&3\quad-0.014263\quad(-0.70742\quad)\\&SUM=0.32533\\&SHILLER\quad DEGREE=1\quad S.C=N\quad E.C=Y\quad K1=1.0000\\&LAG\quad\&2\\&0\quad0.12391\quad(3.4776\quad)\\&1\quad0.093183\quad(3.5072\quad)\\&2\quad0.062299\quad(3.4767\quad)\\&3\quad0.031239\quad(3.2798\quad)\\&4\quad0.00012556\quad(0.033041\quad)\\&SUM=0.31076\\&R2C=0.88391\quad SE=0.0038149\quad DW=1.8641\quad(1980.1-1992.4)\end{aligned} $$

## (26) 民間住宅投資デフレータ（消費税除く）

$$ \begin{aligned}&GRY(PIHP@)=0.020879+(&\&1(I),I=0,2)*(GRY(DPI@))+0.036709*(GRY(PMG))-0.030808*(D803C813)\\&\quad(6.5564)\quad(2.4737)\quad(5.1841)\\&\quad-0.014706*(D883C892)\\&\quad(2.5916)\\&SHILLER\quad DEGREE=1\quad S.C=N\quad E.C=Y\quad K1=0.30000\\&LAG\quad\&1\\&0\quad0.32139\quad(6.6430\quad)\\&1\quad0.15060\quad(6.6680\quad)\\&\quad2\quad-0.016903\quad(-0.70671\quad)\\&SUM=0.45509\\&R2C=0.71759\quad SE=0.0074677\quad DW=2.0639\quad(1980.1-1992.4)\end{aligned} $$

## (27) 政府最終消費支出デフレータ（消費税除く）

$ \log(\text{PCG@}) = -2.5392 + (\&1(\text{I}), \text{I}=1,4)*(\log(\text{W})) + (\&\text{2}(\text{I}), \text{I}=0,4)*(\log(\text{DPI@})) + 0.030888*(D904C) $
(29.625)	(7.9836)
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 1.0000	K2 = 1.0000
LAG	&1
1	0.33984	(28.012 )
2	0.22654	(43.308 )
3	0.11310	(18.930 )
4	- 0.123E - 03	(- 0.013286 )
SUM = 0.67936
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 1.0000	K2 = 1.0000
LAG	&2
0	0.13193	(9.0784 )
1	0.098122	(15.424 )
2	0.064593	(10.085 )
3	0.031581	(4.0593 )
4	- 0.943E - 03	(- 0.10267 )
SUM = 0.32528
R2C = 0.98494	SE = 0.0093013	DW = 2.2618	(1993.1 - 1992.4)

## (28) 公的総固定資本形成デフレータ（消費税除く）

$$ \begin{aligned}LOG(PIG@)=&\quad-2.1869+(\&1(I),I=0,2)^{*}(LOG(DPI@))+(\&2(I),I=0,2)^{*}(LOG(W))+0.012123^{*}(D891C)\\&(4.7379)\\ SHILLER\quad&\quad DEGREE=1\quad&S.C=N\quad&E.C=Y\quad&K1=1.0000\\ LAG\quad&\quad\&1\\0\quad&\quad0.41180\quad&(9.8897\quad)&&\\1\quad&\quad0.20591\quad&(9.9084\quad)&&\end{aligned} $$
2 0.2036E - 04 (0.0056142)

SUM = 0.61772

SHILLER DEGREE = 1 S.C = N E.C = Y K1 = 1.0000

LAG &2

0 0.31431 (15.927 )

1 0.15729 (16.123 )

2 0.00027231 (0.075117 )

SUM = 0.47186

2C = 0.93926 SE = 0.0036293 DW = 2.0358 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (29) 財貨輸出デフレータ（円建）

$ \log(PXG) - \log(FXS) = -5.4476 + 0.99621*(log(PXGBP)) - 0.011335*(time901) + 0.025918*(d861) + 0.026133*(d871) $

$ (20.754)(18.433) $

$ (5.6944) $

$ (2.9395) $

$ (2.9514) $

- 0.020099*(D892)

(2.2904)

R2C = 0.91253 SE = 0.011118 DW = 2.2708 (1984.1 - 1992.4)

## (30) サービス輸出デフレータ（円建、SNAベース）

GF(PXS) = 0.70292*(GF(PXG)) + 0.066500*(GF(FRT)) + 0.23147*(GF(CPI@)) - 0.029569*(D862C864)

(5.8181) (1.2108) (1.6849) (2.1813)

R2C = 0.99840 SE = 0.017135 DW = 1.7577 (1980.2 - 1992.4)

(31) 財貨輸入デフレータ（円建）

$ \log(\mathrm{PMG}) - \log(\mathrm{FXS}) = -4.8961 + 0.887070 \times (\log(\mathrm{PMGC})) + 0.024773 \times (\mathrm{D881C882}) \\

\quad (17.839) \quad (14.999) \quad (2.4350) $

R2C = 0.85521 SE = 0.013551 DW = 1.8469 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

(32) サービス輸入デフレータ（円建、SNAベース）

GF(PMS) = 0.34422*(GF(PMG)) + 0.052359*(GF(FRT)) + 0.050410*(GF(PXGF&)) + 0.56788*(GF(FXS))

(7.9150) (1.4472) (1.6715) (13.948)

R2C = 0.99983 SE = 0.012957 DW = 1.9185 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

[分配プロック]

## (33) 家計配当

(5.4756)
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = N	K1=1.0000
LAG	&1
1	0.039508	(0.47737	)
2	0.14627	(2.9312	)
3	0.26700	(5.7564	)
4	0.40641	(4.5354	)
SUM = 0.85918
R2C = 0.99201	SE = 0.10169	DW = 2.2071	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (34) 家計利子賃貸料・対家計民間非営利団体財産所得

DEL(YPR,1) = 7274.0 + 0.41990*(((RT. - 1 + RT)/2)*(DT. - 1 + CD. - 1)/100 - YPR. - 1) - 1600.7*(D884) + 2372.8*(D904)

(6.8016) (6.6454)

- 2094.1*(D914)

(2.5923)

R2C = 0.68697 SE = 788.32 DW = 2.0451 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (35) 企業所得（配当控除前）

$ \log(YC) - \log(Y) = -2.3462 + (\&1(I), I = 0, 2)*(GR(GDPV@, 1)*400) + 0.15942*(D882) - 0.30961*(D914) $

$ (25.239) $

$ -0.41149*(D922) $

$ (5.3711) $

SHILLER DEGREE = 1 S.C = N E.C = Y K1=10.000

LAG &1

0 0.019361 (4.0873 )

1 0.011274 (2.2612 )

2 -0.0029324 (-0.69822 )

SUM = 0.027702

R2C = 0.55144 SE = 0.098046 DW = 2.0965 (1980.4 - 1992.4)

## (36) 社会保障及びその他の雇主負担

YOLI = +(&1(I),I=0,4)*(CSS) - 1974.3*(D862) - 2477.8*(D922C923)

(2.5433) (3.5396)

SHILLER DEGREE = 1 S.C = N E.C = S K1 = 50000.

LAG &1
0 0.31356 (14.031)

1 0.25004 (28.666)

2 0.17846 (17.461)

3 0.10455 (7.8695)

4 0.042015 (4.1068)

SUM = 0.88863

R2C = 0.99751 SE = 837.90 DW = 2.1635 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

(37) 個人企業所得

YSE + IVAS = -18813. + 0.95214*(W*LSE) - 2075.0*(D831)

(4.2998) (14.005) (1.8868)

R2C = 0.81054 SE = 1216.9 DW = 2.0904 (1981.1 - 1992.4)

(38) 民間固定資本減耗（民間計）

$$ \text{CCAP}/4.0 = 157.70 + 0.027083 \times (\text{KFPNV.}-1 + \text{KHPNV.}-1) $$

$$ (0.72966)(58.107) $$

$$ \text{R2C} = 0.98858 \quad \text{SE} = 160.05 \quad \text{DW} = 2.1002 \quad (1983.1 - 1992.4) $$

(39) 民間企業設備固定資本減耗

CCAC / 4.0 = 631.99 + 0.031584*(KFPNV. - 1)

(2.7837) (42.618)

R2C = 0.97897 SE = 162.78 DW = 2.1426 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

(40) 固定資本減耗（公的計）

CCAG / 4.0 = 388.41 + 0.0026957*(JA_KIGV. - 1) + 479.52*(DC851) + 124.00*(D852C871) - 23.397*(D884C891)

(32.223) (61.564) (77.796) (25.133) (3.8405)

R2C = 0.99554 SE = 8.0517 DW = 1.5360 (1983.2 - 1992.4)

(41) 民間企業在庫品評価調整額

IVAP = 68.430 + 1.0226*(DEL(PIIP,1)*(IIP/2 + KIIP. - 1*4)/100)

(1.2708) (47.212)

R2C = 0.98280 SE = 399.23 DW = 2.0313 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

(42) 民間法人企業在庫品評価調整額

IVAC = 0.97954*(IVAP)

(756.86)

R2C = 0.99993 SE = 21.410 DW = 1.7550 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

[財政プロック]

## (43) 個人税及び罰金、強制手数料

$ \log(\text{TYP} + \text{TPS}) = -7.5520 + (\&1(I), I = 0, 2)*( \log(\text{YW} + \text{YPR} + \text{YDV} + \text{YSE} + \text{IVAS})) $

(12.809)

SHILLER DEGREE = 1 S.C = N E.C = Y K1 = 10.000

LAG &1

0 0.95362 (30.264)

1 0.47679 (30.367)

2 - 0.371E - 04 (-0.011674)

SUM = 1.4304

R2C = 0.95956 SE = 0.031808 DW = 2.1032 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (44) 民間法人企業税及び罰金

$$ \begin{array}{c|ccc}

& \text{LOG(TYC + IFPV*TINCR)} = & & (\&1(I), I = 0, 2)*(\text{LOG}((\text{TRR}(YC + IVAC - YDV) + \text{THH}*YDV))) \\

\hline

& \text{SHILLER} & \text{DEGREE} = 1 & S.C = N & E.C = N & K1 = 1.0000 \\

\hline

& \text{LAG} & \&1 & & & \\

\hline

& 0 & 0.37783 & (5.7739 & ) \\

\hline

& 1 & 0.36180 & (15.546 & ) \\

\hline

& 2 & 0.28704 & (4.3514 & ) \\

\hline

\text{SUM} = & 1.0267 & & & & \\

\hline

& R2C = 0.98791 & \text{SE} = 0.077920 & \text{DW} = 1.8497 & (1983.1 - 1992.4) \\

\end{array} $$

(45) 関税

$ \log(\mathrm{TIM}) = -13.413 + 0.98363 \times (\log(\mathrm{TCT} \times \mathrm{TTCR} \times \mathrm{MG} \times \mathrm{PMG})) - 0.30179 \times (\mathrm{D891C892}) - 0.59305 \times (\mathrm{D902}) + 0.20070 \times (\mathrm{D921}) $

$ (6.8969)(10.350) $

$ (5.8748) $

$ (8.1657) $

$ (2.7838) $

R2C = 0.82335 SE = 0.069730 DW = 1.8264 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

(46) 間接税（除く関税）

$ \log(\text{TIC - VATCOM}) = -0.96127 + 0.86807 \times (\log(\text{GDPV@})) + 0.12586 \times (\text{D871C891}) \times (1.6873) \times (19.457) \times (6.5618) $

R2C = 0.91115

SE = 0.051181

DW = 2.2229

(1982.1 - 1992.4)
$$ \begin{aligned}&LOG(CURP/PGDP)=-8.7322\quad+(&\&1(I),I=0,3)^{*}(LOG(GDP/(1+RCD/400.0)))+0.33371^{*}(LOG(NWC.-1/PGDP))\\&\quad(11.626)\quad(8.9939)\\&SHILLE\quad DEGREE=1\quad S.C=N\quad E.C=Y\quad K1=1.0000\\&LAG\quad\&1\\&0\quad0.43344\quad(9.3651\quad)\\&1\quad0.28904\quad(10.131\quad)\\&2\quad0.14475\quad(8.5377\quad)\\&3\quad0.00034073\quad(0.020479\quad)\\&SUM=0.86756\\&R2C=0.97705\quad SE=0.016663\quad DW=2.0604\quad(1983.1-1992.4)\end{aligned} $$

## (47) 一般政府利子支払

INTG = -8312.5 + 0.59218*(JARL3*SBG. - 1 / 100) + 229.24*(TIME)

(5.1929) (6.6438) (16.830)

R2C=0.96830 SE=258.02 DW=2.1065 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (48) 社会保障給付

BSS = -7545.8 + 0.35420*(WI*(POP60 + U)) + 1.1721*(POPAL*MPI)

(1.8485) (14.059) (2.3292)

R2C=0.98037 SE=1394.3 DW=2.0135 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (49) 社会保障负担

CSS = -10672. + 0.24425*(YWI)

(6.9203) (27.987)

R2C=0.95251 SE=2122.9 DW=2.3027 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

[金融プロック]

## (50) 現金通貨

## (51) 要求払預金

## (52) 定期性預金

$ \log(\text{DT/PGDP}) = -11.098 + (\&1(\text{I}), \text{I} = 0, 3) \times (\log(\text{GDP} / (1 + \text{RCD} / 400.0))) + 0.30459 \times (\log(\text{NWC. - 1/PGDP})) $

(9.8845)

(5.8555)

SHILLER DEGREE = 1 S.C = N E.C = Y K1 = 1.0000

LAG &1

0 0.62873 (10.513)

1 0.41937 (10.804)

2 0.20969 (10.122)

3 0.00024917 (0.019101)

SUM = 1.2580

R2C = 0.94371 SE = 0.013064 DW = 2.3301 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (53) 通貨当局對外純資產

NFA = 84.290 + 0.98020*(NFA. - 1) + 0.94986*(DEL(GFX*(FXS + FXS. - 1) / 2.0 / 1000.0,1)) - 1504.9*(D883)

(0.33516) (28.799)

(6.8846)

(2.6682)

R2C = 0.96069 SE = 523.65 DW = 2.1024 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

(54) C D レート（3 カ月物）

$$ \text{RCD} = 1.7096 + (\&1(\mathrm{I}), \mathrm{I} = 0, 3)^{*} \left( \frac{\text{(MBU - CURP - RESR)}}{\text{GDPV} \times 100} \right) + 0.74389 \times \left( \frac{\text{RDIS}}{+ (\&2(\mathrm{I}), \mathrm{I} = 0, 4) \times \left( \frac{\text{GRY(CPI)} \times 100}{7.1861} \right)} \right) $$

$$ \quad \text{(4.5530)} $$

$$ \quad \text{-1.6457 \times \left( \frac{\text{D913C}}{9.4588} \right)} $$
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 100.00
LAG	&1
0	- 0.13415	(- 2.8472 )
1	- 0.089524	(- 2.8552 )
2	- 0.044865	(- 2.8460 )
3	- 0.152E - 03	(- 0.053531 )
SUM =	- 0.26869
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 100.00
LAG	&2
0	0.17930	(3.9125 )
1	0.13432	(3.9077 )
2	0.089395	(3.8733 )
3	0.044526	(3.7543 )
4	- 0.275E - 03	(- 0.096824 )
SUM =	0.44726
2C = 0.95301	SE = 0.28420	DW = 1.8161	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (55) 利付国債利回り（10年物）

RBOND = 1.6663 + ( &1(I),I = 0,5)*(RCD) + 0.17019*(GR(DPI,1)*400) - 0.13841*(BG / GDPV*100) - 1.2098*(D861)
(4.5874)	(7.4391)	(5.8222)	(3.8390)
- 1.0701*(D892) - 1.1459*(D893) - 0.96651*(D904C921)
(2.8279)	(3.6186)	(4.2813)
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1=20.000
LAG	&1
0	0.28148	(10.692 )
1	0.22172	(13.504 )
2	0.16328	(9.9900 )
3	0.10691	(6.2396 )
4	0.051655	(3.5383 )
5	- 0.0030203	(- 0.22225 )
SUM = 0.82202
R2C = 0.92461	SE = 0.30187	DW = 1.8639	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (56) 公定歩合

RDIS = - 4.4878 + (\&1(I),I = 0,3)*(CPI@ / CPI@. - 4 - 1)*100) + 0.87892*(LOG(FXS)) + (\&2(I),I = 0,3)*(RCD) (2.7250) (2.5282)
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1=1,0000
LAG	&1
0	0.040089	(0.61037 )
1	0.13031	(2.4190 )
2	0.094835	(1.8988 )
3	0.040148	(0.72070 )
SUM = 0.30539
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 10.000
LAG	&2
0	0.31075	(6.9295 )
1	0.20774	(7.0229 )
2	0.10559	(5.6116 )
3	0.0045851	(0.29016 )
SUM = 0.62867
R2C = 0.87784	SE = 0.16484	DW = 1.7981	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## [国際収支・為替レートブロック]

## (57) 財貨輸出（実質、ドル建）

LOG(XGBP) = 0.22197 + 0.98073*(LOG(TL_X&JA))
(2.9060)	(155.43)
R2C = 0.99839	SE = 0.0043712	DW = 2.2453	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (58) 鉱物性燃料輸入（実質、ドル建）

LOG(MMFC) = 7.0375 + ( &1(I),I = 0,4)*(LOG(0)) + (&2(I),I = 0,4)*(LOG(PMFC*FXS / DPI@)) + 0.091425*(DC843) (20.423) + 0.080866*(D922C) (4.9374)
(4.1441)
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 1.0000
LAG	&1
0	0.37913	(7.4254 )
1	0.27206	(10.442 )
2	0.16908	(7.2931 )
3	0.073636	(2.9284 )
$$ \begin{aligned}&4&-0.014961(-0.51413\quad)\\&SUM&=0.87895\\&SHILLER&&DEGREE=1&S.C=N&E.C=Y&K1=10.000\\&LAG&&&\\&0&-0.0099572&(-1.2076\quad)\\&1&-0.0079626&(-1.4333\quad)\\&2&-0.0057948&(-1.4162\quad)\\&3&-0.0033028&(-1.0572\quad)\\&4&-0.592E-03&(-0.20010\quad)\\&SUM&=0.027610\\&R2C=0.92616&SE=0.030236&DW=2.1942&(1983.1-1992.4)\\ \end{aligned} $$

## (59) 食料・原料品輸入（実質、ドル建）

$$ \begin{aligned}&LOG(MRFC)=1.2266+0.84684*(LOG(GDP+M))+(&\&1(I),I=0,7)*(LOG(PRFC*FXS/DPI@))\\&\quad(2.6600)(31.022)\\&SHILLER\quad DEGREE=1\quad S.C=N\quad E.C=Y\quad K1=1.0000\\&LAG\quad\&1\\&0\quad-0.0092045\quad(-0.44424\quad)\\&1\quad-0.026705\quad(-2.5524\quad)\\&2\quad-0.042678\quad(-3.8608\quad)\\&3\quad-0.054928\quad(-4.4656\quad)\\&4\quad-0.059730\quad(-5.1020\quad)\\&5\quad-0.054284\quad(-5.0411\quad)\\&6\quad-0.037001\quad(-3.7069\quad)\\&7\quad-0.012121\quad(-0.93631\quad)\\&SUM=-0.29665\\&R2C=0.98929\quad SE=0.015615\quad DW=2.0229\quad(1983.1-1992.4)\end{aligned} $$

## (60) 加工製品輸入（実質、ドル建）

(61) 財貨輸入（名目、ドル建、IMFベース）

$ \begin{array}{c|c}

\mathrm{LOG(BPMG)} = 0.98971 * (\mathrm{LOG(MGCV)}) + 0.039828 * (\mathrm{D894C902}) - 0.034131 * (\mathrm{D904}) \\

(726.15) & (3.1365) & (2.6505) \\

\hline

R2C = 0.99992 & SE = 0.016802 & DW = 1.6997 & (1983.1 - 1992.4)

\end{array} $

$$ \begin{aligned}&(62)\quad 財貨輸出デフレータ ( ドル建 )\\&\quad\begin{array}{c}\text{LOG(PXGBP)}=5.0000+(\&1(I),I=0,4)^{*}(\text{LOG(DPI@/FXS)})+(\&2(I),I=0,4)^{*}(\text{LOG(PXGF\&)})-0.024929^{*}(\text{D871})\\\quad(180.23)\\+0.053620^{*}(\text{D921C})\ $ 6.2711)\end{array}\quad(1.9233)\\&\quad\begin{array}{c}\text{SHILLER}\quad\quad\text{DEGREE}=1\quad\quad\text{S.C=N}\quad\quad\text{E.C=Y}\quad\quad\text{K1}=1.0000\\\quad\text{LAG}\quad\quad\&1\\0\quad\quad0.21818\quad\quad(11.199\quad\quad)\quad\\1\quad\quad0.14794\quad\quad(12.919\quad\quad)\end{array}\end{aligned} $$
(63) サービス輸出及び海外からの要素所得（うち、投資収益受取・名目、ドル建、IMFベース）

BPXSIIV = -17928. +1.2081*(USRL/100.0*KLA. - 1) +4235.7*(D893C894) +4501.9*(D904C912)

(2.3250) (15.717) (1.8688) (1.9952)

R2C = 0.86651 SE = 3007.3 DW = 2.0855 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

(64) サービス輸入及び海外への要素所得（うち、投資収益支払・名目、ドル建、IMFベース）

BPMSIIV = 5699.9 + 0.50556*(SUM(RBOND,0,7) / 8.0 / 100.0*KLL. - 1) + 4261.5*(TIME8690) - 9374.4*(D922C)

(1.4578) (2.0690)

(10.658) (3.9861)

R2C = 0.90896 SE = 2285.4 DW = 1.8562 (1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (65) サービス輸出及び海外からの要素所得（うち、投資収益受取以外・名目、ドル建、IMFベース）

SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = N	K1 = 20.000
LAG	&1
0	0.22801	(2.0211	)
1	0.20639	(3.2617	)
2	0.18475	(3.0687	)
3	0.16311	(1.5151	)
SUM = 0.78226

SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = N	K1 = 20.000
LAG	&1
0	0.15378	(2.8459 )
1	0.14221	(3.4733 )
2	0.13064	(4.6430 )
3	0.11906	(7.3794 )
4	0.10749	(12.146 )
5	0.095937	(6.1456 )
6	0.084413	(3.0678 )
7	0.072911	(1.8105 )
8	0.061425	(1.1521 )
SUM = 0.96786
C = 0.93476	SE = 0.029122	DW = 1.9102	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (66) サービス輸入及び海外への要素所得（うち、投資収益支払以外・名目、ドル建、IMFベース）

SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 30.000
LAG	&2
0	0.16129	(3.1876 )
1	0.12095	(3.1881 )
2	0.080621	(3.1871 )
3	0.040317	(3.1812 )
4	0.1811E - 04	(0.017737 )
SUM = 0.40319
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 20.000
LAG	&3
0	0.16301	(10.845 )
1	0.14283	(11.275 )
2	0.12265	(11.475 )
3	0.10243	(11.345 )
4	0.082134	(10.855 )
5	0.061732	(10.064 )
6	0.041226	(9.0276 )
7	0.020658	(7.4098 )
8	0.5457E - 04	(0.035644 )
SUM = 0.73672
R2C = 0.96218	SE = 0.030632	DW = 1.6768	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (67) 对外直接投资残高（資產）

SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 1.0000
LAG	&1
0	0.67155	(13.804	)
1	0.43424	(13.605	)
2	0.20702	(9.7728	)
3	- 0.0094979	(- 0.50125	)
SUM = 1.3033
SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 10.000
LAG	&2
0	- 0.020321	(- 7.7303	)
1	- 0.013520	(- 11.797	)
2	- 0.0066856	(- 5.2104	)
3	0.00014872	(0.074795	)
SUM = - 0.040377
R2C = 0.87934	E = 0.019887	DW = 1.6932	(1983.2 - 1992.4)

## (68) 对外直接投資を除く対外長期資産残高

## (69) 对外長期負債残高
$$ \begin{aligned}4\quad&-0.072856\quad(-1.5715\quad)\\5\quad&-0.043905\quad(-1.3287\quad)\\6\quad&-0.010296\quad(-0.45135\quad)\\ SUM&=0.43400\\ SHILLER\quad&DEGREE=1\quad S.C=N\quad E.C=Y\quad K1=10.000\\ LAG\quad&\&2\\0\quad&-0.21708\quad(-4.9427\quad)\\1\quad&-0.14473\quad(-4.9487\quad)\\2\quad&-0.072381\quad(-4.9239\quad)\\3\quad&-0.296E-04\quad(-0.012428)\\ SUM&=0.43423\\ C=0.92049\quad&SE=0.023813\quad DW=1.7439\quad(1983.1-1992.4)\end{aligned} $$

## (70) 对外短期純負債残高

$$ \begin{array}{l}\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{KSNL}/\mathrm{US\_{F}NW})=16.099-0.069210^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}((1+\mathrm{US\_{R}S}/400)/(1+\mathrm{RCD}/400)^{*}FXS/\mathrm{FXS.}-1))\\ \quad(4.1642)(0.34494)\\ \quad-1.7922^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{US\_{F}NW}))+0.36774^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{KSNL.}-1/\mathrm{US\_{F}NW.}-1))\\ \quad(3.8956)\\ \mathrm{R2C}=0.73700\quad\mathrm{SE}=0.062788\quad\mathrm{DW}=2.2688\quad(1983.1-1992.4)\end{array} $$

## (71) 直物為替レート

## (72) 日本の実質輸入

$$ \begin{aligned}&\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{TL\_M\&JA})=0.98536^{*}(\mathrm{LOG}(\mathrm{MGC}))\\ &\quad(1161.9)\\ &\mathrm{R2C}=0.99997\quad\quad\quad\mathrm{SE}=0.029586\quad\quad\mathrm{DW}=2.2355\quad\quad\quad(1983.1-1992.4)\\ \end{aligned} $$

## (73) 日本の輸出価格

## (74) 財貨輸入デフレータ（ドル建）

$$ \mathrm{LOG(PMGCC)}=4.6012+1.0864^{*}(\mathrm{LOG(TL\_{P}M\&JA)})-0.039554^{*}(\mathrm{D862C863}) $$
(419.83)	(10.690)	(2.3502)
R2C = 0.78085	SE = 0.020130	DW = 1.9395	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (75) 鉱物性燃料輸入デフレータ（ドル建）

SHILLER	(16.681)
DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y
LAG	&1
0	0.50776	(14.977	)
1	0.30758	(14.375	)
2	0.11686	(5.3384	)
3	- 0.030240	(- 1.0989	)
SUM = 0.90196
R2C = 0.95582	SE = 0.050002	DW = 2.1951	(1983.1 - 1992.4)

## (76) 食料・原料品輸入デフレータ（ドル建）

## (77) 日本の実質輸出

SHILLER	DEGREE = 1	S.C = N	E.C = Y	K1 = 10.000
LAG	&2
0	- 0.13875	(- 7.7901 )
1	- 0.12781	(- 8.0964 )
2	- 0.11685	(- 8.2814 )
3	- 0.10586	(- 8.2957 )
4	- 0.094782	(- 8.1201 )
5	- 0.083584	(- 7.7760 )
6	- 0.072211	(- 7.3130 )
7 - 0.060622 (-6.7869)

8 - 0.048808 (-6.2424)

9 - 0.036791 (-5.7022)

10 - 0.024617 (-5.1490)

11 - 0.012338 (-4.3674)

12 - 0.147E - 04 (-0.011107)

R2C = 0.98567 SE = 0.013278 DW = 2.0279 (1983.1 - 1992.4)
### 2 \. 定義式

[支出ブロック]

(1) 減価償却の現在価値

PVDP = -1 / LNA*LOG(RESID) / (RBOND) / 100.0 - 1 / LNA*LOG(RESID))*(1 - RESID*EXP(-RBOND / 100.0*LNA))

(2) 資本の使用者費用

UCCPF = PIFP@*(RRFP + (1.0D0 - TRR)*RBOND / 100.0D0 - SUM(GRY(PIFP@),0,1) / 2)*(1.0D0 - TINCR - TRR*PVDP) / (1.0D0 - TRR)

(3) 資本の使用者費用（含新株発行コスト）

UCCPF@ = (1 - REQU)*UCCPF + REQU*PIFP@ / PER

(4) 民間最終消費支出（名目）

CV = C*PC / 100.0

(5) 民間固定資本形成（名目）

IHPV = IHP*PIHP / 100.0

(6) 民間住宅除却

RHP = RRHP*KHP. - 1

(7) 民間住宅ストック（実質）

KHP = KHP. - 1 + (IHP - RHP) / 4.0

(8) 民間企業粗資本ストック（実質）

KFP = (IFP - RFP) / 4.0 + KFP - 1

(9) 民間企業固定資本除却

RFP = RRFP*KFP. - 1

(10) 民間企業設備固定資本形成（名目）

IFPV = IFP*PIFP / 100.0

(11) 民間企業在庫品增加（名目）

IIPV = (KIIP*PIIP - KIIP. - 1*PIIP. - 1) / 100.0*4.0 - IVAP

(12) 民間企業在庫ストック（実質）

KIIP = KIIP - 1 + IIP / 4.0

(13) サービス輸出（実質、円建）

XS = XSV / PXS*100.0

(14) 輸出等（実質、円建）

$ X = XG + XS $

(15) 財貨輸出（名目、円建）

XGV = XG*PXG / 100.0

(16) 输出等（名目、円建）

XV = XGV + XSV

(17) サービス輸入（実質、円建）

MS = MSV / PMS*100.0

(18) 輸入等（実質、円建）

$ M = MG + MS $

(19) 財貨輸入（名目、円建）

MGV = MG*PMG / 100

(20) 输入等（名目、円建）

MV = MGV + MSV

(21) 国内総生産（実質）
$$ \mathrm{G D P}=\mathrm{C}+\mathrm{C G}+\mathrm{I H P}+\mathrm{I F P}+\mathrm{I G}+\mathrm{I I P}+\mathrm{I I G}+\mathrm{X}-\mathrm{M} $$

(22) 国内総生産（名目）

GDPV = CV + CGV + IHPV + IFPV + IGV + IIPV + IIGV + XV - MV

(23) 国内総生産（名目、消費税収分を除く）

GDPV@ = (C*PC@ + CG*PCG@ + IHP*PIHP* + IFPCPIFP + *IG*PIG@ + XG*PXG + XS*PXS) / 100.0 + IIPV + IIGV - MV

(24) 経常海外余剰（実質）

BFR = X - M

(25) 经常海外余剩（名目）

BFV = XV - MV

(26) 財貨貿易収支（実質）

BTR = XG - MG

(27) 財貨貿易収支（名目）

BTV = XGV - MGV

(28) サービス貿易収支（実質）

BSR = XS - MS

(29) サービス貿易収支（名目）

BSV = XSV - MSV

(30) 政府支出（実質）

G = CG + IG + IIG

(31) 政府支出（名目）

GV = CGV + IGV + IIGV

(32) 国内総需要（実質）

A = GDP - X + M

(33) 国内総需要（名目）

AV = A*PA / 100

(35) 家計貯蓄

SHT = SP + CCAH

(36) 民間企業投資（名目）

ICPV = IFPV + IIPV

(37) 実質長期金利（消費デフレータ上昇率を控除）

RRLPC = RBOND - GR(PC,1)*400

(38) 実質長期金利（設備投資デフレータ上昇率を控除）

RRLPIF = RBOND - SUM(GRY(PIFP@)*100.0,0,1) / 2

(39) 実質長期金利（住宅投資デフレータ上昇率を控除）

RRLPIH = RBOND - GRY(PIHP@)*100.0

(40) 経常海外余剰（実質）対GDP比

BFR@GDP = BFR / GDP*100.0

[労働、生産、稼働率プロック]

(41) 労働力人口

LF = RLP*(POP15. - 20) / 100.0

(42) 潜在動労時間

HP = EXP(9.7965D0 + 0.0020685D0*100 - 0.13410D0*LOG(GDP / LE) - 0.11843D0*LOG(GDP - 1 / LE - 1) - 0.10252D0*LOG(GDP - 2 / LE - 2)