Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
Figure 1-1-8

Demographic Shift to the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas and the Disparities in Income and the Ratio of Active Job Openings to Active Job Applicants

(Notes) 1 The excess in-migrants ratio is calculated as “(in-migrants—out-migrants)/population of Japanese”, income disparity is calculated as “the 3 major metropolitan area average of the income of one prefectural resident/national average (excluding the 3 major metropolitan areas)”, employment disparity is calculated as (the ratio of active job openings to active job applicants) is “the 3 major metropolitan area average of the ratio of active job openings to active job applicants/national average (excluding the 3 major metropolitan areas)”.

2 The numbers of the graph are the correlation coefficient of the excess in-migrants ratio for each period and the disparity index.

Source) Developed by MLIT based on “Basic Resident Register Demographic Shift Report” by MIC, “General Public Employment Placement Conditions (Employment Stabilization Statistics) by MHLW, “Prefectural Resident Economy Calculations” by the Cabinet Office.

## (Demographic Shift Conditions in Rural Areas According to Age)

In the rural areas, there is a correlation between the change in life stages and demographic shift (Figure 1-1-9).

The first major demographic shift period is the population exodus that happens when students leave to go to university. From 1985 to 1990, there was a population drain of 185 thousand people, but since then there has been a yearly decrease so that from 2005 to 2010, 112 thousand people left, a marked decrease in the number of people leaving to about 60 percent of the peak period.

Also, previously those who moved away from the rural areas to pursue higher education returned after graduation to find employment, turning into excess in-migrants, but after 2000, those who moved away from the rural areas more often than not stayed in the metropolitan areas to find employment, changing the trend to additional excess out-migrants.

On the other hand, looking at the retirement period, the population influx to the rural areas has increased by ten thousand people from the periods of 1985 to 1990 and 2005 to 2010, and in recent years there seems to be a trend of returning to rural areas at retirement.

Figure 1-1-9

Demographic Shift Conditions in Rural Areas According to Age

(Notes) 1 For each age, the demographic shift indicates the move from 5 years before.

2 For the graph numbers of the shift for each life stage, it is the average of college entrance ages 19~21, employment ages 24~26 and retirement ages 58~62.

3 The rural area is the total for all prefectures excluding the 3 major metropolitan areas.

Source) Developed by MLIT based on “National Census” by MIC, “Life Table by Prefectures” by MHLW.
## (Demographic Shift within the Rural Block)

In terms of the demographic shift within the rural block, a comparison of the 4 blocks in which there are rural core cities (“Hokkaido (Sapporo City)”, “Tohoku Area: Miyagi Prefecture (Sendai City)”, “Chugoku Area: Hiroshima Prefecture (Hiroshima City)” and “Kyushu Area: Fukuoka Prefecture (Fukuoka City)” is shown in the chart below (Figure 1-1-10).

Looking at the demographic shift from 1955 to 2014, each of the core cities all show the tendency towards excess immigrants. However, within each block there is an excess out-migrants tendency.

Figure 1-1-10 Demographic Shift within Prefectures/Blocks with Rural Core Cities

Tokyo Area: Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa

(Notes) 1 The above-mentioned district divisions are as follows:

Osaka Area: Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara

Rural Areas: Districts excluding the 3 major metropolitan areas

Nagoya Area: Gifu, Aichi, Mie

The 3 Major Metropolitan Areas: Tokyo Area, Nagoya Area, Osaka Area

Chugoku Area: Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi

Tohoku Area: Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata, Fukushima, Niigata

Kyushu Area: Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, Miyazaki, Kagoshima

2 Japanese migrants are used for excess in-migrants, and total population is used for population.

Source) Developed by MLIT based on "Basic Resident Register Demographic Shift Report" and "Population Projections" by MIC.

## (In-migrants/Out-migrants by Prefecture and Total Fertility Rates)

In looking at the excess in-migrants/out-migrants by prefecture (Bar Figure: Left Axis) for 2013 and 2014, the excess in-migrants are extremely large for Tokyo, making it very clear that the population is heavily concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area (Figure 1-1-11).

Other than Tokyo, in the metropolises of Miyagi Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture, Chiba Prefecture, Kanagawa Prefecture, Aichi Prefecture, Osaka Prefecture (2013 only) and Fukuoka Prefecture, there was an excess of out-migrants, while other districts show a decrease. Especially in 2014, in addition to excess in-migrants decreasing in prefectures outside of Tokyo Area, Osaka Prefecture had an excess of out-migrants, which shows that the population concentration in the Tokyo Area is progressing right from the surrounding areas.

Looking at the birth rate (Line Graph: Right Axis) for 2013, the rate is extremely low in Tokyo and tends to be low for all the other prefectures that also have excess in-migrants.
Source) Developed by MLIT based on MIC: "Basic Resident Register Demographic Shift Report" (Excess In-migrants/Out-migrants) and MHLW: "Vital Statistics (Total Fertility Rate)"

Based on the above, it can be said due to causes such as the post-WWII economic growth, Japan’s population, lead by its younger generation, are being drawn to the Tokyo Area—with its good income and employment conditions—from the Rural Areas, and although there are minor fluctuations due to social and economic conditions, the tendency to concentrate in Tokyo is continuing.

In order to slow down the population decline, it is important to remedy the tendency to concentrate everything in Tokyo and promote the shift of people to the rural areas where the birth rate is relatively high.
## Total Fertility Rate and Women’s Employment

## (1) Current State/Tendency of Total Fertility Rate

Looking at the TFR Note 6 for 2013 by prefecture, it is high in Okinawa, Minami Kyushu and Sanin while being lowest in Minami Kanto, Kinki and Hokkaido (Figure 1-112).

Comparing the birth rate with the rate of unmarried people between ages 20 and 49 in the prefecture shows that areas with low birth rates tend to have high rates of unmarried people (Figure 1-1-13) Note 7.

TFR and Rate of Unmarried Men and Women Ages 20 to 49 (2010)

Source) Developed by MLIT from “National Census” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW
Also, for the average age for the first marriage, nationally the husband is one or two years older than the wife, with the distribution showing the same tendency for both the husband and wife, and in regions with a low birth rate such as Minami Kanto area, and Kyoto, Osaka prefectures the age for getting married for the first time tends to be higher (Figure 1-1-14).

## (2) Relationship of Total Fertility Rate and Women's Employment

Within the progressing population decline and the expected decrease in the population of the child bearing age group, women hold the greatest potential, and that social participation by women is thought to be effective even for building up rural societies that are maintainable. Recognizing that it is vital to improve the birth rate in this social environment, we will analyze the relationship between birth rates and the employment of women using the data from each prefecture as the base.

## (Comparisons of Male/Female and Married/Unmarried)

First, if we compare the rate of employment Note 8 for men and women between the ages of 20 and 49 with whether they are married or not, for unmarried people, whether men or women, the employment rate exceeds 70%, and there is no difference in the national employment rate of unmarried men and women (Figure 1-1-15).

However, in the married person category, the employment rate for men is over 96%, even in Okinawa where the employment rate for men is lowest, while for women there is a large gap between the lowest employment rate of 55.3% in Hyogo Prefecture, to the highest rate of 80.2% in Yamagata Prefecture, and there is a tendency for women's employment rate to be low in areas where the birth rate is low (Figure 1-1-16).
Figure 1-1-15 TFR and Employment Rate of Men and Women Ages 20 to 49 (without spouse) (2012)

* Horizontal dotted line is National Numbers Men: Blue Women: Pink Source) Developed by MLIT from “Employment Structure Basic Survey” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

Figure 1-1-16 TFR and Employment Rate of Men and Women Ages 20 to 49 (with spouse) (2012)

• Men: Ages 20 to 49 Employed Rate • Women: Ages 20 to 49 Employed Rate

* Horizontal dotted line is National Numbers Men: Blue Women: Pink Source) Developed by MLIT from “Employment Structure Basic Survey” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

Hereafter, while following the birth rate and its related factors, we will conduct the analysis with a focus on the employment rate of women with spouse.

## (Tendencies of Each Area)

In order to look at the birth rate and employment tendencies of each area, we will plot only the employment rate of women with spouse from Figure 1-1-16 to at it closely (Figure 1-1-17). Looking at this figure, there is an obvious distribution tendency that many of the Metropolitan Area prefectures such as Tokyo are in the lower left where both the birth rate and the employment rate of women with spouse are lower than the national average, while many of the Rural Area prefectures such as Chugoku Area tend to be in the upper right, where both rates are higher than the national average. In other words, it is evident that while the birth rate and employment rate of women with spouse are low in the Metropolitan Area prefectures, the birth rate and employment rate of women with spouse both tend to be higher in the Rural Area prefectures.

## (Relationship with a Woman’s Life Stage)

Next, under the assumption that a woman’s lifestyle changes greatly between the “marriage” phase and “childbirth, child-rearing” phase, we will consider the relationship between these factors and employment rate/birth rate.

First, by combining only the data on women from Figure 1-1-15 and Figure 1-1-16, it becomes clear that areas with lower birth rates have a greater difference between the employment rates of women without spouse and women with spouse (Figure 1-1-18).
Next, looking at the average working hours Note 9 of employed people over the age of 15 on a weekday by men and women, and by different life stages, the working hours for men becomes longer in the “child-rearing stage Note 10” than in the “single stage Note 11” but there is no significant difference in the tendencies of the average working hours by regions.

On the other hand, the average working time for women becomes shorter in the “child-rearing stage” than in the “single stage” and, along with the large decrease of working hours in the regions with low birth rates, the distribution tendencies change a great deal (Figure 1-1-19). When analyzed in conjunction with Figure 1-1-18, regions with a lower birth rate not only have lower employment rate in general for women, but also an added factor that even the employed women have shorter working hours.

In other words, we can infer that in regions with a lower birth rate there is a large possibility that many women quit working or change to jobs with shorter working hours after getting married or giving birth.

Figure 1-1-18 TFR and Employment Rate of Women Ages 20 to 49 (With/Without Spouse) (2012)

Employed Rate of Women with Spouse Ages 20 to 49

Employed Rate Ages 20 to 49 (excluding women with spouse)

Line shape (Employed Rate of Women with Spouse Ages 20 to 49)

Line shape (Employed Rate Ages 20 to 49 (excluding women with spouse))

* Dotted line is approximate curve (linear approximation) of the data.

Source) Developed by MLIT from “Employment Structure Basic Survey” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

Figure 1-1-19 Total Fertility Rate and Average Working Hours of Employed People Over Age 15 (Weekday Men Women According to Life Stage) (2011)

Source) Developed by MLIT from "Civil Life Basic Survey" by MIC, "Vital Statistics" by MHLW

Furthermore, in order to take a more detailed look at the relationship between the birth rate and the employed rate of women with spouse (hereafter referred simply as “employment rate” in the text of this section), we will take examples from the Metropolitan Areas and the Rural Areas, Tokyo/Osaka and Shimane/Fukui prefecture respectively, for comparison and analysis.

First, looking at the birth rate of each age range $ ^{Note\ 12} $ and the employment rate of women, in areas where the birth rate and employment rate are both low, the graph shows a tendency towards a “M-shaped” curve because the employment rate becomes extremely low for the last half of the 20s to the 30s which are seen to be related to child-bearing and child-rearing. In the areas where both the birth rate and employment rate are high, this “M-shaped” curve is not seen (Figure 1-1-20).
Further, in looking at the employment conditions (ratio of regular employment to non-regular employment), areas with the higher birth rates have a higher rate of regular employment for both men and women. Also, in areas where the birth rate is low, in the age range of the latter half of 30s—age at which women are assumed to be in their child-rearing years—there is a reversal of the ratio between regular and non-regular employment, while in areas with high birth rates, women with regular employment maintain a level around 50% up to their early 50s (Figure 1-1-21). The context for the increase in those with non-regular employment with the increase in one’s age in the former areas (where the birth rate is low), is that when the women re-enter the work force after full-time child-rearing has ended, there seems to be a tendency to choose jobs with shorter working hours, or that there is a tendency that only non-regular jobs available.

Figure 1-1-21

Comparison of Birth Rate by Age Range and Condition of Employment

Source) Developed by MLIT based on “National Census” by MIC and “Vital Statistics” by MHLW.

From the above information, it can be inferred that in the prefectures with a high employment rate, the rate of leaving jobs for childbirth and child-rearing is low, and due to having an environment where women can continue in regular employment, results in lowering the opportunity cost incurred for childbirth and child-rearing. On the other hand, in the prefectures with a low employment rate, it can be inferred that for some reason, there are obstacles to pursuing both “childbirth and child-rearing” and “work” so that women are compelled to make a choice between the two.
(Causal Analysis ~“Childbirth/Child-rearing” or “Work”~)

What then are the factors that make it possible for women to give birth and raise children without quitting their jobs?

In general, the main reasons suggested are things like the rate of multi-generational families and the rate of available childcare facilities $ ^{13} $ . These two factors are thought to directly influence the rate of employment for women (Figure 1-1-22).

Another consideration is that the birth rate and employment rate are low in places like Kanagawa, Nara, Tokyo, and Osaka, all prefectures that require longer time for commuting to work, while the employment rate and birth rate are both higher in prefectures like Shimane, Fukui and Miyazaki with shorter commute times. (Figure 1-1-23). In Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures, although the rate of multi-generational families and available childcare facilities are not high, the average commute time is shorter, making it clear that the proximity of workplace and home also affects the employment rate for women.

Figure 1-1-22

Employment Rate of Women and Rate of Multi-generational Families/Potential Acceptance Rate of Fixed Number of Children by Childcare Facilities (2010)

Source) Developed by MLIT from "National Census" by MIC and "Social Welfare Facilities Survey" by MHLW.

Figure 1-1-23

Employment Rate for Women Aged 15 to 64 and Commute Time (Average Time for Workers)

Weekday Average Working Hours of Regularly Employed Women (Commute)

Source) Developed by MLIT from “Civil Life Basic Survey (2011)” and “National Census (2010)” by MIC
To add an explanation to the scatter diagram in Figure 1-1-17 based on the above factors, areas with a birth rate and employment rate for women that are lower than the national average—showing in the bottom left quadrant of the chart—are areas where combining child-rearing and working is difficult. In the same way, we can infer that areas showing in the upper right quadrant of the chart with birth rate and employment rate for women that are higher than the national average are areas where combining child-rearing with working is easier. (Figure 1-1-24) Note $ ^{14} $ .

Relationship between TFR and Employment Rate of Women (with Spouse) Ages 20 to 49 (2012)

Source) Developed by MLIT from "Employment Structure Basic Survey" by MlC, "Vital Statistics" by MHLW.

(Conclusion)

As seen above, factors such as the rate of multi-generational families and acceptance rate of fixed number of children by childcare facilities and the proximity of work to the home seem to be related to whether women can continue working while having and raising children.

In the Rural Areas where this kind of environment seems relatively obtainable, it is important to build an attractive community that will make it easy for young people and women to come from the city by enhancing these attractive qualities and securing the employment environment.

On the other hand, in the Metropolitan Areas, in view of combining child-rearing and work, it is important to improve the above factors, for example by building urban communities that make it possible to have work and home in closer proximity.

Either way, as the population decline progresses in the future, if there is a demand for work opportunities for women, it will be important to build an environment that both women and men are able to combine work and child-rearing by promoting various flexible ways of working to further improve work-life balance, and one which does not force women to choose between “childbirth/child-rearing” and “work”.
population decline was only 32.1% in the Urban Areas, while in the Rural Areas Note $ ^{17} $ it was up to 49.5%, almost half the respondents, showing there is a discrepancy between the Urban Areas and the Rural Areas with how the effects of the population decline are actually experienced (Figure 1-2-2). However, for both the Urban Areas and the Rural Areas, there seems to be a gap between the sense of crisis as seen in Figure 1-2-1 and having an actual sense of experiencing the effects.

## The Effects of Population Decline on the Cities and Daily Life in Rural Areas

The following are some of the main areas that are expected to be specifically affected in the cities and daily life of rural areas if the population decline continues to progress.

### (1) Reduction of Services Related to Daily Life (Stores, Restaurants, Recreation, Medical Facilities, etc.)

The various services necessary for conducting our daily lives are provided based on a certain population size. The necessary population size varies depending on the type of service, and Figure 1-2-3 shows the distribution condition of these services. For example, for a general hospital with over 80% placement probability to be placed in a city, the population size has to exceed 27,500 people (population of over 5,500 people necessary for over 50% probability of placement). When the population decline cuts into the population base necessary to establish daily life-related services, the service industries will progressively withdraw from the district, causing daily life to become more inconvenient by making it difficult to get the products and services necessary for daily living.

Figure 1-2-3 Population Size and Location of Service Facilities (Excluding the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas)

Note 17 In the “Public Awareness Survey”, the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas are called Urban Areas and all areas outside of the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas are called the Rural Areas.
In addition, the tertiary industries such as service industries make up over 60% of employment in the Rural Areas. The withdrawal of these service industries will lead to a decrease in employment opportunities in the region, which could lead to further Population Decline (Figure 1-2-4).

Figure 1-2-4 The Industry Type Ratio of Rural Areas (2010)

(Notes) 1 For expediency, the industries included in “Service Industry” includes “Academic Research, Specialty/Technical Service Industry”, “Accommodations, Food and Beverage Service Industry”, “Daily Life-Related Services, Entertainment Industry”, “Education, Learning Support Services”, “Combined Services Industry” and “Service Industry (those not included in any other category)”.

2 Rural Areas: All areas excluding the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas (Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Gifu, Aichi, Mie, Kyoto, Osaka, Nara, Hyogo)

Source) Developed by MLIT from "2010 National Census" by MIC

## (2) Falling Standard of Administrative Services Due to Decrease in Tax Income

A decline in population also has a major impact on the finances of the local government. With population decline and its resulting shrinkage of economic/industrial activities, the tax income of the local public entities will decrease. Meanwhile, social security expenses are expected to rise because of the growing elderly population, so that condition are expected to become even tougher on local governments. Should these conditions continue, it is projected that social services that had been previously provided will be abolished or more fees charged, making daily life more inconvenient as a result.

In addition, under these difficult financial conditions of local governments, the issue of aging infrastructures, such as the public facilities, roads, bridges and sewage systems built in the high economic growth period, will also need to be addressed.

## (3) Down-Sizing, Withdrawal of the Local Public Transportation

Until now, local public transportation has mostly been supported by private businesses. However, if the decrease in the population of children, students and working-aged people progresses because of the population decline, the number of commuters will decrease. This will make it difficult for private businesses to offer transportation services based on profit performance, and it is predicted that the unprofitable routes of local railways and bus lines will either be shutdown or decrease the frequency of service. In Rural Areas, with the growth of the aging population, there is a growing need for public transportation as the means of mobility for the elderly people who cannot drive cars. Therefore, the deterioration of local public transportation services has an even greater effect on daily life than in the past.
The various effects of population decline on the cities and daily life of the Rural Areas may lead to a vicious cycle of further reducing the population of these regions, due to the diminishing quality of life and attractiveness. Figure 1-2-7 is an illustration of this cycle.

Since the effects and the degree of said effects will depend on the characteristics of the locale, the process depicted in the illustration will not apply to all districts. However, it is important to not just have a vague sense of crisis regarding population decline, but to share an awareness that this is an imminent problem that may occur in one’s own resident district. Then, based on that shared awareness, work on facing the problems caused by population decline as a unified district.

As outlined in the following chapters, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism understands the importance of realizing prosperous living that extends to future generations, and will work to promote the building of attractive districts by making cities more compact to consolidate administrative functions, and securing local daily life services by strengthening the transportation network.