These results suggest that we will get a relatively large share of elderly who will not have the means to pay for the health and social services they will need. Today family members and kin provide a large share of the help to elderly. Wives in particular help their husbands and daughters help their old mothers. Will this resource be available also in the future and help to ease the expected increased pressure on the public sector? To answer this question we have simulated the domestic migration between different parts of the country and measured how closely children live to their parents. A necessary condition for being able to help one's parents on a more regular basis is that the child lives within commuting distance to the parent. Figure 3.5.10 shows how the share of elderly who live in commuting distance from the nearest child will decrease. The explanation to this result is that geographical mobility has increased. Young people move to get education and never return home, and young people also leave the rural areas and move into the major metropolitan areas, where it is easier to find a good job. When we looked more closely at the numbers behind Figure 3.5.10 we found that the share of single fathers and mothers who lived close to their children was smaller than the share of couples. Unfortunately singles are in more need of help than couples. Our simulations thus suggest that we cannot expect children to do more for their parents than they already are. On the contrary, they can rather be expected to do less.

#### 3.5.6 Conclusions

- If the same share of elderly as currently will get access to health care and social care in the future, the supply of these services would have to increase at the same rate as the age groups concerned. (Inpatient care by 70 per cent, home help by 50 per cent and institutionalized care by 80 per cent.)

- The expenditures for these services tend to increase faster than the tax revenues from households. This will imply reallocation of resources within the public sector, higher taxes or increased user-fees.

The income standard of those who are retired will decrease as they age relative to the working generations. Younger birth cohorts will get lower relative incomes than older cohorts unless they retire later.

- A large share of the very old will get so low incomes that they become poor. This group will not have the means to pay for care.

The baby boom cohorts of the 1940s are relatively wealthy and they will according to our simulations keep their wealth also when they age. This is a potential source to fund increasing care expenditures, but a large share of this wealth is tied up in housing.

We will, however, have a relatively large group of care needing elderly who both have low incomes and very little wealth. This group will not be able to afford higher charges for care.

We should not expect that children and other relatives step in and substitute for public care.

- Increased immigration is not very effective in balancing the increased burden of care for our elderly.

- Much more effective is an increase in the average retirement age, the ability to maintain high economic growth and good public health.