Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
against the dollar, which became evident from the summer of 1995: the authorities often intervened to maintain downward pressure on the won to make Korean exports remain competitive with Japanese exports.

## (iii) Malaysia

Throughout this period, the Malaysian authorities pursued a tight monetary policy

amid the continued concern about excess liquidity. The measures included increases in reserve requirements (e.g., in January 1994, February and June 1996) and direct controls (e.g., ceiling on external bank liabilities in January 1994; limit on bank lending in April 1997). Inflation was modest and falling, declining from the range of 5-6 percent in 1994 to the range of 2-3 percent in 1996 and early 1997. The exchange rate was generally stable, narrowly fluctuating around 2.5 ringgit per US dollar, although there sometimes was moderate pressure for appreciation, as from mid-1994 to mid-1995 (when the ringgit appreciated from 2.6 to 2.44), and from late 1996 to early 1997 (Figure 3c). From mid-1995 to early 1996, on the other hand, there was speculation against the ringgit, which was reversed with a recovery of capital inflows in late 1996.

## (iv) Thailand

Particularly from mid-1994, the Thai authorities pursued a tight monetary policy amid

the mounting concern about excess liquidity and inflation. Interest rates rose, reaching the
highest level in 4 years in December 1995. Consumer price inflation remained in the range of 4-6 percent, although there was a temporary pickup in late 1995 and early 1996 to a range exceeding 7 percent. During the 12-month period preceding the Thai crisis of July 1997, however, the stance of monetary policy was kept easy in part to support the deteriorating balance sheets of finance companies (Fane and McLeod 1999). The exchange rate was relatively stable against the US dollar, fluctuating between 24.66 and 25.97 baht per dollar in quarterly average terms (Figure 3d). The baht, however, was subjected to periodic depreciating pressure, as during the Mexican crisis of January 1995, in the aftermath of the Bangkok Bank of Commerce (BBC) scandal and the subsequent downgrading of the credit rating of Thailand's external debt in the summer of 1996, in late 1996 and early 1997 (when there were rumors of an impending devaluation associated with weakening economic fundamentals), and during the financial crisis of March 1997.

(2) Estimating the Expected Future Spot Exchange Rate

Figure 3 depicts, for each East Asian currency, the current US dollar exchange rate and the implied expected onemonth ahead US dollar exchange rate during the period of April 1994-May 1997. Several interesting observations emerge from this set of figures. First, except for the Indonesian rupiah, it appears that whenever the domestic currency depreciated against
the US dollar, the market participants apparently expected the currency to depreciate further

over the coming month. Likewise, whenever the currency appreciated against the US dollar,

there were apparent expectations that the currency would further appreciate. This adaptive

nature of exchange rate expectations is seen in the observation that the dotted line is above

(below) the solid line when the latter moves upward (downward).

Second, in contrast, the dotted line for the Indonesian rupiah almost always exceeded the solid line, indicating that the market participants apparently expected the currency to display trend depreciation. This is consistent with the crawling peg arrangement, under which the rupiah was regularly adjusted downward against the US dollar. Third, for the Thai baht, the market participants were almost consistently expecting the currency to depreciate over the month, from mid-1995 to early 1997, when the expectations of depreciation rose sharply. It appears that the market participants were questioning the sustainability and hence the credibility of the so-called dollar peg policy of the Thai authorities through much of the sample period.

Finally, in general, the periods of expected (as well as actual) depreciation were

associated with monetary easing, as in the case of the Indonesian rupiah and the Korean won in

late 1996 and early 1997. In the case of the Thai baht, it appears that the expectations of
depreciation were fueled by the reported rumors of an impending devaluation from mid-1996 to

early 1997, in connection with the BBC scandal and the financial crisis of March 1997. In

contrast, the periods of expected (as well as actual) appreciation were associated with the

beginning of monetary tightening, as in the case of the Thai baht in early 1995. All in all, these

observations suggest that the market participants held systematic expectations of either

appreciation or depreciation for all four East Asian currencies throughout much of the sample

period, so that the exchange rate policies of these countries can hardly be characterized as dollar

peg policies, at least in terms of the perception of the market participants.

### 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks

In this paper, we have used an unobserved components model to extract the foreign exchange risk premium from the excess ex post returns of East Asian currency assets over US dollar assets and derived the implied expected future spot rates of East Asian currencies against the US dollar. While the rather mechanical unobserved components model may not be the best way of modeling the risk premium, given the limited availability of monthly macroeconomic data needed to take a more structural approach, it may well be the only feasible method. We have used this model to provide one possible quantitative indication of the nature of the exchange rate.
policies of East Asian countries (i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea and Thailand) prior to the onset

of the currency crisis in 1997. Subject to the limitations of the model, the empirical results

obtained for the period January 1994–June 1997, have generally indicated that the risk premium

was substantial and time-varying and that the market participants questioned the credibility of

the so-called dollar peg policies by consistently forming expectations of either appreciation or

depreciation over the coming month.

By way of conclusion, three implications can be stated. First, the presence of a risk premium means that East Asian currency assets and US dollar assets were imperfect substitutes, so that the sterilization and other tight monetary measures adopted in these countries were likely effective in limiting the growth of monetary aggregates arising from the large reserve inflows. Second, the consistently observed expectations of short-term depreciation or appreciation suggest that market participants were questioning the credibility of the exchange rate policies. In this sense, the so-called dollar peg policies were by no means promoting a stable external environment for these East Asian countries. Third, if capital inflows were magnified at all, it was not necessarily by the policy of exchange rate pegging, as frequently argued, but rather by the presence of substantial risk premiums. During much of the period under consideration, the existing interest rate differential over US dollar assets was to a large extent due to the提高的美元利率。
extent offset by expected depreciation, so that what counted for profit-motivated investors was

the magnitude of the risk premiums.

### Appendix I. The Sources and Nature of Interest Rate Data

Data on dollar exchange rates and short-term market interest rates were obtained from the Asian Wall Street Journal, daily issues. They are end-of-month data for the period from January 1994 to June 1997 (or from January 1994 to February 1997 for Korea only), covering the Indonesian rupiah, the Korean won, the Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht. The East Asian currency interest rates are 30-day interbank settlements or nearest comparable rates, while the US dollar interest rate is the 1-month Eurodollar rate. Although both 30-day (or 1-month) and 90-day (or 3-month) rates were available (see Table 1 and Figure 1), we have only used the 30-day (or 1-month) rates in our empirical work so as to avoid autocorrelated residuals resulting from overlapping observations (with the sampling interval shorter than the forecasting horizon) when monthly data are used.

### Appendix II. An Outline of the Kalman Filter Algorithm

Following Harvey (1981, 1989), the Kalman filter algorithm for the unobserved
components model (expressed by equations 4-8) can be presented as follows.

Let $ a(t) $ denote the minimum mean square liner estimator (MMSLE) of the risk premium $ \rho(t) $ based on all available information at time t, including the excess return $ ER(t) $ . Let $ a(t|t-1) $ denote the MMSLE of the risk premium $ \rho(t) $ at time t-1. We assume that all available information is incorporated in $ a(t-1) $ at time t-1, with a known covariance matrix $ P(t-1) $ .

Then, the following set of equations (A1)-(A5) describes the Kalman filter algorithm:

$$ a(t|t-1)=a(t-1)\;, $$

$$ P(t|t-1)=P(t-1)+Q, $$

$$ a(t)=a(t\big|t-1)+P(t\big|t-1)\cdot\left(E R(t)-a(t\big|t-1)\right)/\ f(t), $$

$$ P(t)=P(t|t-1)-P^{2}(t|t-1)\;/\;f\left(t\right), $$

$$ f(t)=P(t|t-1)+R\;, $$

Note here that Q and R are the variances of $ \varepsilon $ (i.e., an innovation for the random walk process for

the risk premium) and v (i.e., a prediction error of the spot exchange rate), respectively.

Equations (A1) and (A2) are prediction equations, while equations (A3) and (A4) are

updating equations. The first two equations predict the mean and variance of the risk

premium $ \rho(t) $ , given the information set at time t-1. The next two equations update the values
of $ a(t) $ and $ P(t) $ in Bayesian fashion, on the basis of newly available current information,

including the current value of $ ER(t) $ and its history (Harvey 1989; and Hamilton 1994).

Equation (A5) gives the variance of the excess return $ ER(t) $ , which is made up of the risk

premium ρ(t) and a prediction error of the spot exchange rate v(t).

Noting the definition of a one period ahead prediction error of the spot exchange rate,

$ v(t)=ER(t)-a(t|t-1) $ , the log likelihood function of the model can be written as,

$$ \ln L=-\frac{T}{2}\ln(2\pi)-\frac{1}{2}\sum_{t=1}^{T}\ln f(t)-\frac{1}{2}\sum_{t=1}^{T}\frac{\nu^{2}(t)}{f(t)}\;. $$

The estimates of Q and R are obtained recursively by maximizing this log likelihood function.

The initial values are set arbitrarily. As the starting value of $ \rho $ required in initializing the

Kalman filter procedure, we use the OLS estimate obtained from the first five observations. To

check for robustness, we have also used different initial values of Q and R as well as the OLS

estimate of $ \rho $ from the full sample. In either case, we have found virtually the same results,

suggesting that estimates are robust with respect to the choice of initial values.

References
Baillie, Richard T. and Tim Bollerslev, “Common Trends in a System of Exchange Rates”,

Journal of Finance 44, March 1989, 167-181.

Baillie, Richard T. and Tim Bollerslev, “The Long Memory of the Forward Premium”, Journal of

International Money and Finance 13, October 1994, 565-571.

Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonard Leiderman, and Carman M. Reinhart, “Inflows of Capital to

Developing Countries in the 1990s", Journal of Economic Perspectives 10, Spring 1996,

123-139.

Cheung, Yin-Wong., "Exchange Rate Risk Premiums", Journal of International Money and

Finance 12, February 1993, 182-194.

Chuhan, Punam, Stijn Claessens and Nlandu Mamingi, “Equity and Bond Flows to Latin

America and Asia: The Role of Global and Country Factors", Journal of Development

Economics 55, April 1998, 439-463.

Crowder, William J., “Foreign Exchange Rate Efficiency and Common Stochastic Trends”,

Journal of International Money and Finance 13, October 1994, 551-564.

Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU), Country Report: Indonesia, quarterly issues, 1 $ ^{st} $

quarter 1994 through 2 $ ^{nd} $ quarter 1997.

Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU), Country Report: Malaysia/Brunei, quarterly issues,
$ 1^{st} $ quarter 1994 through $ 2^{nd} $ quarter 1997.

Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU), Country Report: South Korea/North Korea,

quarterly issues, 1 $ ^{st} $ quarter 1994 through 2 $ ^{nd} $ quarter 1997.

Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU), Country Report: Thailand/Myanmar, quarterly

issues, 1 $ ^{st} $ quarter 1994 through 4 $ ^{th} $ quarter 1994.

Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU), Country Report: Thailand, quarterly issues, 1 $ ^{st} $

quarter 1995 through 2 $ ^{nd} $ quarter 1997.

Engel, Charles, “The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent

Evidence", Journal of Empirical Finance 3, June 1996, 123-191.

Esaka, Taro, “Was It Really a Dollar Peg?: The Exchange Rate Policies of East Asian Countries,

1980-97", Mimeo, Osaka University, February 2000.

Evans, Martin D. D. and Karen K. Lewis, "Do Long-term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates

of the Risk Premia?", Review of Financial Studies 8, Fall 1995, 709-742.

Fane, George and Ross H. McLeod, “Lessons for Monetary and Banking Policies from the

1997-98 Economic Crises in Indonesia and Thailand", Journal of Asian Economics 10,

Fall 1999, 395-413.

Hamilton, James D., Time Series Analysis, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994.
Harvey, Andrew C., Time Series Models, London, Philip Allen, 1981, 101-119.

Harvey, Andrew C., Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and Kalman Filter, New York,

Cambridge University Press, 1989.

Ito, Takatoshi, Eiji Ogawa and Yuri Nagataki Sasaki, "How did the Dollar Peg Fall in Asia?",

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 12, December 1998, 256-304.

Montiel, Peter J., “The Capital Inflow Problem”, working paper, Economic Development

Institute, World Bank, 1998.

Nijman, Theo E., Franz C. Palm and Christian C. P. Wolff, “Premia in Forward Foreign

Exchange as Unobserved Components: A Note", Journal of Business and Economic

Statistics 11, July 1993, 361-365.

Takagi, Shinji, “The Yen and Its East Asian Neighbors, 1980-1995: Cooperation or Competition?”

Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger (eds.), Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly

Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, Chicago and London:

University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1999,

185-210.

Takagi, Shinji and Taro Esaka, “Sterilization and the Capital Inflow Problem in East Asia,

1987-97." Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger (eds.), Regional and Global Capital Flows:
Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, Chicago and London: University of Chicago

Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 2001, 197-226.

Wolff, Christian C. P., “Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A

Signal-Extraction Approach", Journal of Finance42, June 1987, 395-406.

Wolff, Christian C. P., “Measuring the Forward Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Multi-Country

Evidence from Unobserved Components Models", Journal of International Financial

Markets, Institutions and Money 10, January 2000a, 1-8.

Wolff, Christian C. P., “Forward Foreign Exchange Rates and Expected Future Spot Rates”,

Applied Financial Economics 10, July 2000b, 371-377.
Summary Statistics: Interest Rate Differentials and Excess Returns on East Asian Currency Assets, 1994-97

Table 1.

(a) Interest rate differentials over US dollar assets (in percent per year)
Indonesia	Korea	Malaysia	Thailand
1 month	3 month	1 month	3 month	1 month	3 month	1 month	3 month
Sample	94:1-97:6	94:1-97:4	94:1-97:2	94:1-97:4	94:1-97:6	94:1-97:4	94:1-97:6	94:1-97:4
Mean	8.288	8.706	7.882	8.256	0.939	0.923	6.133	6.013
Std Dev	1.855	1.902	1.273	0.778	1.101	1.133	2.000	1.755
Min	4.438	4.438	6.625	6.356	-0.900	-0.958	2.750	2.875
Max	10.28	11.13	12.25	10.36	3.436	3.323	14.75	13.91
t-statistic	28.95	29.67	27.66	68.80	5.526	5.279	19.88	22.21
p-value	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

(b) Excess returns over US dollar assets (in percent per year) 1/
Sample	94:1-97:6	94:1-97:4	94:1-97:2	94:1-97:4	94:1-97:6	94:1-97:4	94:1-97:6	94:1-97:4
Mean	3.621	4.002	5.053	4.642	3.524	2.476	6.102	5.368
Std Dev	6.139	3.562	12.45	9.216	12.65	7.955	9.559	5.200
Min	-9.074	-1.503	-28.19	-15.64	-17.41	-13.92	-9.516	-1.662
Max	18.59	12.90	36.48	25.65	46.60	22.29	54.78	22.35
t-statistic	3.777	7.016	2.469	3.146	1.784	1.944	4.087	6.446
p-value	0.001	0.000	0.018	0.003	0.081	0.059	0.000	0.000

Note: 1/ Adjusted for actual exchange rate changes.

Sources: The Asian Wall Street Journal; authors' estimates.
The Time-Series Property of Excess Returns [ $ ER(t) $ ], 1994-97

Table 2.

Indonesia	Korea	Malaysia	Thailand
-2.564 (5)	-2.663 (7)	-3.066 (6)	-2.285 (2)
[0.296]	[0.252]	[0.115]	[0.442]

Note: The figures are Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics obtained with a constant term and time trend. The figures in parentheses indicate lag length; and those in brackets are p-values.
Table 3.

Summary Statistics from the Estimated Unobserved Components Model

Indonesia	Korea	Malaysia	Thailand
Mean ( $ \rho $ )	0.0028***	0.0042***	0.0032***	0.0050***
Var ( $ \rho $ )	1.26E-05	6.41E-05	5.99E-05	3.02E-05
t-statistic	5.079	3.219	2.675	5.799
Var ( $ \nu $ )	1.39E-05	4.23E-05	5.34E-05	3.14E-05
Q (7)	10.1	10.1	11.2	6.15
log L	147.6	112.8	120.6	131.3

Note: The unobserved components models was estimated by the maximum likelihood method through the Kalman filter technique. Mean ( $ \rho $ ) and Var ( $ \rho $ ) are the mean and the variance of the estimated risk premium. Var ( $ \nu $ ) is the variance of the derived noise. Q (7) is the Box-Pierce portmanteau test statistic calculated from residuals. The critical value of the Q (7) statistic is 12.02 at the 10 percent level. *** indicates the statistic is significant at the 1 percent level.
Figure 1.

1-month and 3-month Interest Rate Differentials: East Asian Currency Assets over US Dollar Assets, 1994-97 (in percent per year)
Figure 1 (continued).

Source: The Asian Wall Street Journal.
Figure 2.

1-month Foreign Risk Premiums relative to the US Dollar, 1994-97
Figure 2 (continued).

Sources: The Asian Wall Street Journal; authors' estimates based on the unobserved components model.
Figure 3. Current and Expected 1-month Future Exchange Rates against the US Dollar, 1994-97
Figure 3 (continued).

Sources: The Asian Wall Street Journal; authors' estimates based on the unobserved components model.
昭 和 51 年 度 特 别 会 计 暂 定 予 算

(昭和51年度特別会計暫定予算参照書添付)

第 77 回 国 会 ( 常 会 ) 提 出
## 総目録

## 昭和51年度特別会計暫定予算

予算総則

甲号歲入歲出暫定予算

(添付)

昭和51年度特別会計暫定予算参照書

昭和51年度特別会計歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書
## 昭和51年度特別会計暫定予算目録
通 商 座 業 省 所 管 22
ア ル コ ー ル 専 壳 事 業 22
輸 出 保 險 22
機 械 類 信 用 保 險 23
運 輸 省 所 管 23
自動車損害賠償責任再保險 23
港 湾 整 備 24
自 動 車 検 查 登 録 25
空 港 整 備 25
郵 政 省 所 管 26
郵 政 事 業 26
郵 便 貯 金 26
簡易生命保険及郵便年金 27
労 働 省 所 管 28
労 働 保 険 28
建 設 省 所 管 29
道 路 整 備 29
治 水 30
都 市 開 発 資 金 融 通 31
## (添 付)

## 昭和51年度特別会計暫定予算参照書目錄

昭和51年度特別会计歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書総理府、大蔵省及び通商産業省所管電源開発促進対策甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書大蔵省所管造幣局甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書印刷局甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書資金運用部甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書国債整理基金甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書貴金属
甲号岁入岁出暂定予算予定计算书65甲号岁入岁出暂定予算予定计算书105石 炭 勘 定65病 院 勘 定105石 油 勘 定69療 養 所 勘 定109大藏省及び建設省所管71あ へ ん113特 定 国 有 财 座 整 備71甲号岁入岁出暂定予算予定计算书113甲号岁入岁出暂定予算予定计算书71国 民 年 金115文 部 省 所 管75甲号岁入岁出暂定予算予定计算书115国 立 学 校75国 民 年 金 勘 定115甲号岁入岁出暂定予算予定计算书75福 祉 年 金 勘 定118厚 生 省 所 管81業 務 勘 定120厚 生 保 険81農 林 省 所 管125甲号岁入岁出暂定予算予定计算书81食 糧 管 理125健 康 勘 定81甲号岁入岁出暂定予算予定计算书125日 雇 健康 勘 定84国内 米 管 理 勘 定125年 金 勘 定88国内 麦 管 理 勘 定128児 童 手 当 勘 定91輸入 食 糧 管理 勘 定130業 務 勘 定94農 產 物 等 安 定 勘 定133船 員 保 険99輸入 飼 料 勘 定135甲号岁入岁出暂定予算予定计算书99業 務 勘 定138国 立 病 院105調 整 勘 定142
甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書143甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書175再保険金支払基金勘定143国有林野事業勘定175農業勘定145治山勘定179家畜勘定147中小漁業融資保証保険183果樹勘定149甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書183臨時畑作勘定151特定土地改良工事187業務勘定153甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書187森林保険155通商產業省所管191甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書155アルコール専売事業191漁船再保険及漁業共済保険159甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書191甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書159輸出保険195漁船普通保険勘定159甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書195漁船特殊保険勘定162機械類信用保険199漁船乘組員給与保険勘定164甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書199漁業共済保険勘定166運輸省所管203業務勘定168自動車損害賠償責任再保険203自作農創設特別措置171甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書203甲号歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書171保険勘定203国有林野事業175保障勘定205
業務勘定207労働保険247港湾整備209甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書247甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書209労災勘定247港湾整備勘定209雇用勘定251特定港湾施設工事勘定215徵収勘定255自動車檢查登錄219建設省所管259甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書219道路整備259空港整備223甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書259甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書223治水267郵政省所管229甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書267郵政事業229治水勘定267甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書229特定多目的ダム建設工事勘定275郵便貯金235都市開発資金融通279甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書235甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書279簡易生命保険及郵便年金239甲号歲入歲出暫定予算予定計算書239保険勘定239年金勘定243労働省所管247
昭 和 51 年 度 特 别 会 計 暫 定 予 算
# 昭 和 51 年 度 特 別 会 計 暫 定 予 算

## 予算総則

( 歲入歲出暫定予算 )

第１条 次に掲げる各特別会計の昭和５１年度歳入歳出暫定予算は、「甲号歳入歳出暫定予算」に掲げるとおりとする。

総理府、大蔵省及び通商産業省所管

電 源 開 発 促 進 対 策

大 藏 省 所 管

造幣局

印刷局

資 金 運 用 部

国債整理基金

貴金

属

外国為替資金

産業投資

賠償等特殊債務処理

地震再保除

大蔵省及び自治省所

管

交付税及び譲与税配付金

大蔵省,通商産業省及び労働省所管

石炭及び石油対策

大蔵省及び建設省所

管

特定国有財產整備

文部省所管

国 立 学 校

厚 生 省 所 管

厚生保険

船 員 保 険

国立病院
農林省所管	あ	へ	ん
国	民	金
食	糧	管理
農業	共	保
森	林	保
漁船	再保	及漁業共漁保
自作農創設特別措置	作農創設特別措置	置
国有林野事業	有林野事業	業
中小漁業融資保證保險	中小漁業融資保證保險	保
特定土地改良工事	特定土地改良工事	事
アルコール専売事業	アルコール専売事業	業
輸出保險	輸出保險	保
機械類信用保險	機械類信用保險	保
自動車損害賠償責任再保險	自動車損害賠償責任再保險	保
港湾整備	港湾整備	備
自動車検査登錄	自動車検査登錄	險
空港整備	空港整備	備
郵政事業	郵政事業	業
郵便貯金	郵便貯金	金
簡易生命保險及郵便年金	簡易生命保險及郵便年金	金
労働省所管	労働省所管	労働省所管	保
建設省所管	道路整備	道路整備	備
治	治	水
都市開発資金融通	都市開発資金融通	通
第3条 各特別会計の歳入歳出暫定予算の内訳として、「歳入歳出暫定予算予定計算書」は、別に添附する。(借入金の限度額)
第4条 次の表の左欄に掲げる各特別会計の中欄に掲げる法律の規定による借入金の限度額は、それぞれ右欄に掲げるとおりとする。
特別会計	根拠規定	限度額
特定国有財産整備	「特定国有財産整備特別会計法」第11条第2項	12,200,000千円
国立病院	「国立病院特別会計法」第8条の2第2項	病院勘定療養所勘定
特定土地改良工事	「特定土地改良工事特別会計法」第14条第2項	2,500,000
(一時借入金等の最高額)
第5条 次の表の左欄に掲げる各特別会計の中欄に掲げる法律の規定による一時借入金、融通証券及び繰替金(「国庫余裕金の繰替使用に関する法律」第1条の規定によるものを含む。)の最高額は、それぞれ右欄に掲げるとおりとする。
特別会計	根拠規定	最高額
外国為替資金	「外国為替資金特別会計法」第4条第2項	3,420,000,000千円
産業投資	「産業投資特別会計法」第13条第3項	2,300,000
交付税及び議与税配付金	「交付税及び議与税配付金特別会計法」第13条第2項	1,287,940,000
石炭及び石油対策	「石炭及び石油対策特別会計法」第12条第2項	石炭勘定
国有林野事業	「国有林野事業特別会計法」第6条第4項	11,500,000
アルコール専売事業	「アルコール専売事業特別会計法」第6条第3項	2,600,000
郵政事業	「郵政事業特別会計法」第17条第2項	247,500,000
2 食糧管理特別会計における「食糧管理特別会計法」第4条ノ2の規定による証券、借入金及び一時借入金の最高額は、1,400,000,000千円とする。(歳入歳出暫定予算の弾力条項)
第6条 次の表の左欄に掲げる特別会計において、中欄に掲げる事由により収入金額が予算額に比して増加するときは、その増加する金額を限度として右欄に掲げる経費を増額することができる。