Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
Table 2 (1): Impact of the 1998 Tax Cuts on Total Consumption (normalized by average monthly income)

Dependent var.	Exc. durables	Exc. durables	Exc. durables	Exc. durables
Specification	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)
TaxcutNh,t+1Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	1.30*(0.69)	1.29*(0.70)	0.96(0.65)	0.83(0.65)
TaxcutNh,tMonthly Incomeh,τ-1	0.99(0.80)	1.40*(0.82)	0.72(0.77)	0.83(0.77)
TaxcutNh,t-1Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	-1.80**(0.82)	-1.84**(0.85)	-1.35*(0.79)	-1.02(0.79)
TaxcutNh,t-2Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	0.98(0.87)	0.93(0.91)	0.71(0.83)	0.36(0.84)
TaxcutIh,6Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	-0.50(0.86)	-0.30(0.90)	-0.68(0.83)	-0.93(0.84)
Lags of Current Income and bonus	No	Yes	No	Yes
Control Year	No	No	Yes	Yes
F test(Prob.>F)	2.64(0.03)	2.94(0.02)	1.56(0.18)	1.20(0.31)
Sum of TaxcutN	1.48(1.35)	1.77(1.40)	1.04(1.24)	1.00(1.25)
Adj.R²s.e.e	0.060.36	0.070.36	0.050.35	0.060.34
Number of Observation	2,221	2,221	18,331	18,331

Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. The dependent variable is change in the log of monthly total consumption except durables. The estimated elasticity to the tax cuts is the coefficient on tax cuts relative to monthly pre-tax income in the previous year. All regressions also include a quadratic in the age of the household head, number of family members, change in number of family members and indicator variable for each year and month. In addition, specification (2) includes four lags of (i)current income minus tax cut and bonus amount relative to the monthly income in previous year and (ii) bonus relative to monthly income. The null hypothesis for F test is all coefficients on national income tax cut relative to monthly income are zero. Sum of TaxcutN refers the sum of the coefficients on national tax cuts and the standard errors.
Table 2 (2): Impact of the 1998 Tax Cuts on Total Consumption (normalized by consumption in the first month)

Dependent var.	Exc. durables	Exc. durables	Exc. durables	Exc. durables
Specification	(3)	(4)	(3)	(4)
TaxcutNh,t+1	1.28**	1.33**	1.15**	1.15**
Consumptionh	(0.29)	(0.29)	(0.27)	(0.28)
TaxcutNh,t	-0.06	0.03	-0.13	-0.07
Consumptionh	(0.35)	(0.36)	(0.34)	(0.34)
TaxcutNh,t-1	-0.52	-0.49	-0.40	-0.29
Consumptionh	(0.32)	(0.34)	(0.31)	(0.31)
TaxcutNh,t-2	0.30	0.18	0.22	0.06
Consumptionh	(0.33)	(0.36)	(0.32)	(0.33)
TaxcutIh,6	-0.29	-0.35	-0.32	-0.51
Consumptionh	(0.29)	(0.31)	(0.28)	(0.29)
Lags of Current Income and bonus	No	Yes	No	Yes
Control Year	No	No	Yes	Yes
F test (Prob.>F)	5.97	6.06	4.95	4.77
(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
Sum of TaxcutN	1.00*	1.05*	0.85	0.85*
(0.53)	(0.60)	(0.50)	(0.51)
Adj.R²	0.06	0.07	0.05	0.06
s.e.e	0.36	0.36	0.35	0.34
Number of Observation	2,221	2,221	18,331	18,331

Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. The dependent variable is change in the log of monthly total consumption except durables. The estimated elasticity to the tax cuts is the coefficient on tax cuts relative to consumption in January. All regressions also include a quadratic in the age of the household head, number of family members, change in number of family members and indicator variable for each year and month. In addition, specification (4) includes four lags of (i) current income minus tax cut and bonus amount relative to consumption in January and (ii) bonus relative to consumption in January. The null hypothesis for F test is all coefficients on national income tax cut relative to monthly income are zero. Sum of TaxcutN refers the sum of the coefficients on national tax cuts and the standard errors.
Table 3 (1): Impact of the 1998 Tax Cuts on Consumption by Type of Goods (normalized by average monthly income)

Dependent var.	Semi-durables	Semi-durables	Non-durables	Non-durables	Services	Services
Specification	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)	(1)	(2)
TaxcutNh,t+1Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	-1.52(2.34)	-2.49(2.35)	0.03(0.43)	-0.05(0.43)	3.38**(1.26)	3.32**(1.26)
TaxcutNh,tMonthly Incomeh,τ-1	2.99(2.69)	3.32(2.69)	0.84*(0.49)	0.90*(0.50)	-0.29(1.47)	-0.23(1.47)
TaxcutNh,t-1Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	0.73(2.79)	1.65(2.80)	-1.26**(0.51)	-1.13**(0.52)	-2.83*(1.53)	-2.50(1.53)
TaxcutNh,t-2Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	-3.02(3.00)	-4.72(3.07)	0.86(0.55)	0.56(0.56)	2.62(1.59)	2.50(1.62)
TaxcutIh,6Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	3.91(2.98)	2.09(3.04)	-0.01(0.54)	-0.32(0.56)	-0.69(1.57)	-0.76(1.60)
Lags of Current Income and bonus	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
F test(Prob.>F)	0.63(0.64)	1.18(0.32)	2.12(0.08)	1.69(0.15)	3.00(0.02)	2.70(0.03)
Sum of TaxcutN	-0.81(4.51)	-2.23(4.57)	0.47(0.82)	-0.04(1.04)	2.88(2.38)	3.09(2.40)
Adj.R²s.e.e	0.031.22	0.031.22	0.060.23	0.060.23	0.020.66	0.030.65
Number of Observation	17,671	17,671	18,490	18,490	18,304	18,304

Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. The dependent variable is change in the log of monthly consumption by type of goods. The estimated elasticity to tax cuts is the coefficient on tax cuts relative to monthly pre-tax income in the previous year. All regressions also include a quadratic in the age of the household head, number of family members, change in number of family members and indicator variable for each year and month. In addition, specification (2) includes four lags of (i) current income minus tax cut and bonus amount relative to the monthly income in previous year and (ii) bonus relative to the monthly income. $ * $ * indicates 5% level significance and $ * $ does 10% level. The null hypothesis for F test is all coefficients on national income tax cut relative to monthly income are zero. Sum of TaxcutN refers the sum of the coefficients on national tax cuts and the standard errors.
Table 3 (2): Impact of the 1998 Tax Cuts on Consumption by Type of Goods (normalized by consumption in the first month)

Dependent var.	Semi-durables	Semi-durables	Non-durables	Non-durables	Services	Services
Specification	(3)	(4)	(3)	(4)	(3)	(4)
TaxcutNh,t+1	0.59(0.98)	0.28(0.98)	0.25(0.18)	0.21(0.18)	2.23**(0.57)	2.25**(0.58)
Consumptionh	0.07(1.06)	0.17(1.07)	0.21(0.20)	0.20(0.20)	0.04(0.57)	0.19(0.57)
TaxcutNh,t	0.61(1.09)	0.92(1.10)	-0.43**(0.20)	-0.40**(0.20)	-0.87(0.58)	-0.75(0.59)
Consumptionh	-0.25(1.16)	-0.99(1.18)	0.44**(0.21)	0.32(0.21)	0.57(0.61)	0.39(0.62)
TaxcutIh,6	0.73(1.01)	-0.16(1.05)	-0.02(0.18)	-0.16(0.19)	-0.36(0.53)	-0.56(0.55)
Consumptionh
Lags of Current Income and bonus	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
F test(Prob.>F)	0.20(0.94)	0.37(0.83)	2.57(0.04)	1.86(0.11)	4.54(0.00)	4.57(0.00)
Sum of TaxcutN	1.01(1.82)	0.37(1.86)	0.47(0.33)	0.34(0.33)	1.97*(0.97)	2.08**(0.98)
Adj.R²	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02
s.e.e	1.22	1.22	0.23	0.23	0.66	0.66
Number of Observation	17,671	17,671	18,490	18,490	18,304	18,304

Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. The dependent variable is change in the log of monthly consumption by type of goods. The estimated elasticity to tax cuts is the coefficient on tax cuts relative to consumption in January. All regressions also include a quadratic in the age of the household head, number of family members, change in number of family members and indicator variable for each year and month. In addition, specification (4) includes four lags of current income minus tax cut and bonus amount relative to consumption in January and (ii) bonus relative to consumption in January. $ *\* $ indicates 5% level significance and $ * $ does 10% level. The null hypothesis for F test is all coefficients on national income tax cut relative to monthly income are zero. Sum of TaxcutN refers the sum of the coefficients on national tax cuts and the standard errors.
Table 4 (1): Impact of the 1998 Tax Cuts by Income Levels (normalized by average monthly income)

Dependent var.	All	All	Semi-durables	Semi-durables
Specification	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Annual income	Above Mean	Below mean	Above Mean	Below mean
TaxcutNh,t+1	-0.42	1.86**	3.05	-4.88
Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	(1.14)	(0.82)	(3.77)	(3.10)
TaxcutNh,t	1.94	-0.90	-4.03	7.59**
Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	(1.18)	(1.08)	(3.93)	(3.85)
TaxcutNh,t-1	-1.63	-0.98	-1.12	2.13
Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	(1.22)	(1.09)	(4.07)	(4.03)
TaxcutNh,t-2	0.64	1.58	-0.23	-5.52
Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	(1.32)	(1.16)	(4.45)	(4.39)
TaxcutIh,6	0.76	-2.49*	5.99	3.52
Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	(1.22)	(1.43)	(4.11)	(5.43)
F test (Prob.>F)	1.00	1.76	0.42	1.74
(0.41)	(0.13)	(0.80)	(0.14)
Sum of TaxcutN	0.52	1.55	-2.34	-0.69
(2.29)	(1.51)	(7.71)	(5.79)
Adj.R²	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.03
s.e.e	0.36	0.33	1.21	1.23
Number of Observation	7,923	10,408	7,830	9,841

Dependent var.	Non-durables	Non-durables	Services	Services
Specification	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Annual income	Above mean	Below mean	Above Mean	Below mean
TaxcutNh,t+1Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	-0.12(0.70)	0.14(0.57)	-0.15(2.13)	5.59**(1.61)
TaxcutNh,tMonthly Incomeh,τ-1	0.36(0.72)	1.12(0.71)	3.04(2.22)	-3.19(2.06)
TaxcutNh,t-1Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	-0.49(0.75)	-2.12**(0.74)	-4.11*(2.30)	-2.49(2.18)
TaxcutNh,t-2Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	1.24(0.81)	0.95(0.81)	1.82(2.50)	4.38*(2.24)
TaxcutIh,6Monthly Incomeh,τ-1	0.50(0.75)	-0.12(1.00)	1.11(2.31)	-2.79(2.74)
F test(Prob.>F)	0.69(0.60)	2.25(0.06)	1.18(0.32)	4.01(0.00)
Sum of TaxcutN	0.99(1.40)	0.08(1.05)	0.60(4.31)	4.29(2.92)
Adj.R²s.e.e	0.060.22	0.050.23	0.020.68	0.010.63
Number of Observation	8,072	10,418	7,962	10,342
Table 4 (2): Impact of the 1998 Tax Cuts by Income Levels (normalized by consumption in the first month)

Dependent var.	All	All	Semi-durables	Semi-durables
Specification	(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)
Annual income	Above Mean	Below Mean	Above Mean	Below mean
TaxcutNh,t+1	1.11**	1.27**	3.61**	-1.51
Consumptionh	(0.46)	(0.36)	(1.51)	(1.34)
TaxcutNh,t	-0.01	-0.53	-3.69**	2.47*
Consumptionh	(0.47)	(0.55)	(1.57)	(1.50)
TaxcutNh,t-1	-0.21	-0.45	0.27	1.07
Consumptionh	(0.49)	(0.42)	(1.63)	(1.53)
TaxcutNh,t-2	0.46	0.33	-1.23	0.91
Consumptionh	(0.51)	(0.44)	(1.74)	(1.64)
TaxcutIh,6	-0.10	-1.32	1.08	-1.04
Consumptionh	(0.34)	(0.86)	(1.16)	(3.37)
F test	1.73	3.45	2.51	1.26
(Prob.>F)	(0.14)	(0.01)	(0.04)	(0.28)
Sum of TaxcutN	1.36	0.62	-1.03	2.94
(0.84)	(0.66)	(2.87)	(2.46)
Adj.R²	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.03
s.e.e	0.36	0.33	1.21	1.23
Number of Observation	7,923	10,408	7,830	9,841

Dependent var.	Non-durables	Non-durables	Services	Services
Specification	(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)
Annual income	Above Mean	Below Mean	Above Mean	Below mean
TaxcutNh,t+1	0.36	0.19	1.80**	2.52**
Consumptionh	(0.28)	(0.24)	(0.85)	(0.84)
TaxcutNh,t	-0.17	0.40	0.47	-0.05
Consumptionh	(0.29)	(0.28)	(0.89)	(0.78)
TaxcutNh,t-1	-0.03	-0.81**	-1.08	-1.10
Consumptionh	(0.30)	(0.28)	(0.92)	(0.78)
TaxcutNh,t-2	0.37	0.67*	0.90	0.32
Consumptionh	(0.31)	(0.30)	(0.97)	(0.84)
TaxcutIh,6	0.12	-0.40	-0.33	0.67
Consumptionh	(0.21)	(0.60)	(0.65)	(1.65)
F test	0.78	3.18	1.76	2.75
(Prob.>F)	(0.54)	(0.01)	(0.13)	(0.03)
Sum of TaxcutN	0.53	0.45	2.10	1.68
(0.52)	(0.44)	(1.59)	(1.28)
Adj.R²	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01
s.e.e	0.22	0.23	0.68	0.63
Number of Observation	8,072	10,418	7,962	10,342

Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. See the note of Table 2 (1) and 3 (1).
Table 5: Impact of the 1998 Tax Cut and the 1999 Coupon Program

5-(1) Month to Month Specification (Normalized by income in the previous year)

First	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth
a) The 1998 Tax Cut (The February Tax Cut)
January-June Panel
Specification (5-1)
February	March	April	May	June
nat'l	Local
Total Consumption: (N=4,190)	-0.24 (1.16)	1.13 (0.77)	0.32 (0.67)	0.61 (0.59)	-0.05 (0.56)	1.82 (0.88)
s.e.e.	0.33	0.36	0.36	0.35	0.35
R squared (adj)	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.02
Semi-durables: (N=3,867)	-4.70 (4.45)	0.55 (2.89)	-0.66 (2.39)	0.92 (2.20)	1.71 (2.05)	1.22 (3.11)
s.e.e.	1.28	1.29	1.23	1.21	1.22
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
Non-durables: (N=4,236)	0.36 (0.78)	0.32 (0.49)	0.17 (0.46)	0.02 (0.43)	-0.16 (0.42)	0.36 (0.66)
s.e.e.	0.24	0.23	0.25	0.25	0.27
R squared (adj)	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04
Services: (N=4,157)	0.41 (2.32)	2.50 (1.40)	-0.26 (1.22)	0.27 (1.08)	-0.78 (0.98)	3.37 (1.65)
s.e.e.	0.63	0.64	0.65	0.63	0.62
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Specification (5-1) without adjusting income other than tax cut
February	March	April	May	June
nat'1	Local
Total Consumption: (N=4,190)	-0.96 (1.17)	0.90 (0.77)	0.31 (0.67)	0.57 (0.59)	-0.11 (0.56)	1.79 (0.88)
s.e.e.	0.34	0.36	0.36	0.35	0.35
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02
Semi-durables: (N=3,867)	-5.38 (4.45)	0.31 (2.88)	-0.74 (2.38)	0.96 (2.19)	1.32 (2.05)	1.11 (3.11)
s.e.e.	1.28	1.30	1.23	1.21	1.22
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
Non-durables: (N=4,236)	0.18 (0.79)	0.28 (0.49)	0.19 (0.46)	0.02 (0.43)	-0.17 (0.42)	0.36 (0.66)
s.e.e.	0.24	0.23	0.25	0.25	0.27
R squared (adj)	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04
Services: (N=4,157)	-0.10 (2.33)	2.34 (1.40)	-0.21 (1.22)	0.22 (1.08)	-0.81 (0.98)	3.37 (1.65)
s.e.e.	0.63	0.64	0.65	0.63	0.62
R squared (adj)	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
b) The Shopping Coupon Program (1999)
January-June Panel (Specification (5-2))
March	April	May	June	July
Total	0.51	-0.02	-0.47	-0.72
Consumption:	(0.34)	(0.34)	(0.32)	(0.33)
(N=5,211)
s.e.e.	0.35	0.35	0.33	0.34
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00
Semi-durables:	1.56	1.09	-2.26	-2.18
(N=4,900)	(1.34)	(1.29)	(1.28)	(1.28)
s.e.e.	1.34	1.29	1.28	1.28
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
Non-durables:	-0.03	-0.33	-0.18	-0.49
(N=5,280)	(0.22)	(0.22)	(0.23)	(0.23)
s.e.e.	0.23	0.22	0.24	0.24
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01
Services:	0.40	0.04	-0.45	-1.01
(N=5,208)	(0.64)	(0.64)	(0.61)	(0.61)
s.e.e.	0.66	0.66	0.63	0.63
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00

February-July Panel (Specification (5-2))
Total Consumption: (N=5,275)	0.27 (0.34)	0.18 (0.34)	0.22 (0.32)	-0.14 (0.33)	-0.29 (0.36)
s.e.e.	0.36	0.36	0.33	0.35	0.37
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01
Semi-durables: (N=4,897)	2.22 (1.38)	1.61 (1.32)	1.09 (1.29)	-0.49 (1.30)	-0.80 (1.33)
s.e.e.	1.33	1.27	1.24	1.25	1.28
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
Non-durables: (N=5,360)	0.25 (0.23)	0.31 (0.22)	0.11 (0.23)	0.10 (0.23)	0.19 (0.26)
s.e.e.	0.24	0.23	0.24	0.24	0.27
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02
Services: (N=5,237)	-0.03 (0.64)	-0.03 (0.64)	0.30 (0.60)	0.26 (0.61)	-0.31 (0.66)
s.e.e.	0.66	0.66	0.62	0.63	0.68
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

## (The 1998 tax cut)

Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. Data are January-June panels from 1990 to 1999. The dependent variable is the log of the ratio of consumption in each month after February to the consumption in January. The estimated elasticity to tax cut is the coefficient on tax cuts relative to monthly pre-tax income in the previous year. All regressions also include a quadratic in the age of the household head, the number of family members (the number of children under 15 and others respectively for the shopping coupons), and indicator variables for year. A household is eliminated if the number of family members is changed. Total consumption exclude durables.

## (The 1999 shopping coupon program)

Notes: Sample are panels from January-June and February-July from 1990 to 1999. Standard errors in parenthesis. The dependent variable is the log of consumption in each month relative to consumption in February and the estimated elasticity is the coefficient on the amount of the shopping coupon (computed as the number of children x 20,000 yen) relative to monthly income in the previous year. All regressions also include a quadratic in the age of the household head, the number of children under the age of 15, the number of other family members, and indicator variables for year. Total consumption excludes durables.
5-(2) Month to Month Specification (Normalized by consumption in the first month)

First	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth
a) The 1998 Tax Cut (The February Tax Cut)
January-June Panel
Specification (6-1)
February	March	April	May	June
Total Consumption:	0.38	0.73	0.32	0.48	0.14	0.01
(N=4,190)	(0.36)	(0.25)	(0.23)	(0.19)	(0.20)	(0.001)
s.e.e.	0.33	0.34	0.34	0.32	0.33
R squared (adj)	0.05	0.10	0.12	0.16	0.15
Semi-durables:	-0.05	0.45	-0.25	0.50	0.93	0.02
(N=3,867)	(1.21)	(0.92)	(0.82)	(0.78)	(0.80)	(0.002)
s.e.e.	1.27	1.28	1.21	1.19	1.20
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.03
Non-durables:	0.16	0.16	-0.04	0.10	0.03	0.01
(N=4,236)	(0.21)	(0.15)	(0.15)	(0.14)	(0.15)	(0.005)
s.e.e.	0.24	0.23	0.25	0.25	0.26
R squared (adj)	0.03	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.08
Services:	1.47	1.46	0.70	0.64	0.07	0.02
(N=4,157)	(0.69)	(0.46)	(0.42)	(0.37)	(0.37)	(0.001)
s.e.e.	0.63	0.63	0.63	0.60	0.60
R squared (adj)	0.02	0.05	0.06	0.08	0.07

Specification (6-1) without adjusting income other than tax cut
February	March	April	May	June
Total Consumption: (N=4,190)	1.10 (0.36)	1.37 (0.26)	1.06 (0.24)	1.25 (0.21)	0.72 (0.21)	0.76 (0.25)
s.e.e.	0.34	0.36	0.36	0.34	0.35
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02
Semi-durables: (N=3,867)	0.85 (1.21)	1.59 (0.92)	0.95 (0.82)	1.90 (0.79)	2.01 (0.81)	-0.11 (0.87)
s.e.e.	1.28	1.30	1.23	1.21	1.22
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
Non-durables: (N=4,236)	0.41 (0.21)	0.45 (0.15)	0.27 (0.15)	0.43 (0.14)	0.30 (0.15)	0.17 (0.18)
s.e.e.	0.24	0.23	0.25	0.25	0.27
R squared (adj)	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04
Services: (N=4,157)	2.26 (0.69)	2.27 (0.47)	1.64 (0.42)	1.60 (0.38)	0.76 (0.38)	1.45 (0.45)
s.e.e.	0.63	0.64	0.65	0.63	0.62
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01
b) The Shopping Coupon Program (1999)
January-June Panel (Specification (6-2))
March	April	May	June	July
Total Consumption: (N=5,211)	0.54 (0.16)	0.30 (0.16)	0.12 (0.15)	-0.02 (0.15)
s.e.e.	0.35	0.35	0.33	0.34
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
Semi-durables: (N=4,900)	1.08 (0.63)	1.14 (0.60)	0.07 (0.60)	-0.36 (0.60)
s.e.e.	1.34	1.29	1.28	1.28
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
Non-durables: (N=5,280)	0.05 (0.10)	-0.02 (0.10)	0.01 (0.11)	-0.22 (0.11)
s.e.e.	0.23	0.22	0.24	0.24
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01
Services: (N=5,208)	0.70 (0.30)	0.42 (0.30)	0.30 (0.28)	0.02 (0.29)
s.e.e.	0.66	0.66	0.63	0.63
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00

February-July Panel (Specification (6-2))
Total	0.45	0.49	0.45	0.44	0.31
Consumption:	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.13)	(0.14)	(0.15)
(N=5,275)
s.e.e.	0.36	0.36	0.33	0.35	0.37
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
Semi-durables:	0.94	1.23	0.94	0.27	0.64
(N=4,897)	(0.63)	(0.61)	(0.59)	(0.60)	(0.61)
s.e.e.	1.33	1.27	1.24	1.25	1.28
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
Non-durables:	0.13	0.27	0.13	0.22	0.19
(N=5,360)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.09)	(0.10)	(0.11)
s.e.e.	0.24	0.23	0.24	0.24	0.27
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.02
Services:	0.80	0.65	0.72	0.98	0.40
(N=5,237)	(0.27)	(0.26)	(0.25)	(0.25)	(0.27)
s.e.e.	0.66	0.66	0.62	0.63	0.68
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

## (The 1998 tax cut)

Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. Data are January-June panels from 1990 to 1999. The dependent variable is the log of the ratio of consumption after February to the consumption in January. The estimated elasticity to tax cut is the coefficient on tax cuts relative to consumption in January. All regressions also include a quadratic in the age of the household head, the number of family members (the number of children under 15 and others respectively for the shopping coupons), and indicator variables for year. A household is eliminated if the number of family members is changed. Total consumption excludes durables.

## (The 1999 shopping coupon program)

Notes: Sample are panels from January-June and February-July from 1990 to 1999. Standard errors in parenthesis. The dependent variable is the log of consumption in each month relative to consumption in February and the estimated elasticity is the coefficient on the amount of the shopping coupon (computed as the number of children x 20,000 yen) relative to consumption in February. All regressions also include a quadratic in the age of the household head, the number of children under the age of 15, the number of other family members, and indicator variables for year. Total consumption excludes durables.
5-(3) Cumulative specification (normalized by income in the previous year)

First	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth
a) 1998 Tax Cut (The February Tax Cut)
January-June Panel
Specification (7-1)
Feb.	Feb.-Mar.	Feb.-Apr.	Feb.-May
Total Consumption (N= 4,274)	-0.38 (1.15)	0.39 (0.64)	0.03 (0.54)	0.12 (0.48)
s.e.e.	0.33	0.30	0.30	0.29
R squared (adj)	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.02
Semi-durables (N=4,121)	-4.83 (4.35)	-2.01 (2.42)	-2.09 (1.99)	-0.57 (1.79)
s.e.e.	1.28	1.11	1.05	1.01
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00
Non-durables (N=4,295)	0.44 (0.78)	0.42 (0.43)	0.29 (0.37)	0.19 (0.34)
s.e.e.	0.24	0.21	0.20	0.20
R squared (adj)	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.04
Services (N= 4,267)	0.91 (2.18)	0.76 (1.18)	-0.06 (0.98)	0.02 (0.88)
s.e.e.	0.63	0.56	0.54	0.52
R squared (adj)	0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00

Specification (7-1) without adjusting income other than tax cut

Feb.	Feb.-Mar.	Feb.-Apr.	Feb.-May	Feb.-Jul.
Total Consumption (N= 4,274)	-1.10 (1.16)	0.29 (0.64)	0.10 (0.54)	0.21 (0.48)	0.21 (0.35)
s.e.e.	0.34	0.30	0.30	0.29	0.28
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02
Semi-durables (N= 4,121)	-5.49 (4.35)	-2.18 (2.42)	-1.98 (1.99)	-0.10 (1.78)	-0.43 (1.27)
s.e.e.	1.29	1.11	1.05	1.01	1.00
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
Non-durables (N= 4,295)	0.26 (0.79)	0.39 (0.43)	0.29 (0.37)	0.22 (0.34)	0.20 (0.25)
s.e.e.	0.24	0.21	0.20	0.20	0.20
R squared (adj)	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.05
Services (N=4,267)	0.07 (2.19)	0.74 (1.18)	0.16 (0.98)	0.20 (0.88)	0.34 (0.63)
s.e.e.	0.64	0.56	0.54	0.52	0.51
R squared (adj)	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
b) Shopping Coupon Program (1999)
January-June Panel (Specification (7-2))
Mar.	Mar.-Apr.	Mar.-May	Mar.-Jun.	Mar.-Jul.
Total Consumption: (N=5,305)	0.53 (0.34)	0.34 (0.30)	0.10 (0.28)	-0.10 (0.27)
s.e.e.	0.35	0.31	0.29	0.28
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.01
Semi-durables: (N=5,147)	1.49 (1.33)	1.44 (1.16)	0.59 (1.10)	-0.07 (1.08)
s.e.e.	1.35	1.17	1.12	1.09
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
Non-durables: (N=5,348)	-0.01 (0.22)	-0.14 (0.19)	-0.15 (0.18)	-0.21 (0.18)
s.e.e.	0.23	0.19	0.19	0.18
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01
Services: (N=5,297)	0.50 (0.64)	0.53 (0.56)	0.15 (0.53)	-0.15 (0.52)
s.e.e.	0.67	0.58	0.55	0.54
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01
February-July Panel(Specification (7-2))
Total Consumption: (N=5,401)	0.28 (0.34)	0.28 (0.30)	0.31 (0.28)	0.20 (0.28)	0.05 (0.27)
s.e.e.	0.36	0.32	0.30	0.29	0.29
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
Semi-durables: (N=5,207)	2.37 (1.33)	2.31 (1.16)	2.25 (1.09)	1.76 (1.06)	1.26 (1.05)
s.e.e.	1.34	1.17	1.10	1.07	1.06
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
Non-durables: (N=5,436)	0.21 (0.22)	0.28 (0.19)	0.21 (0.18)	0.15 (0.18)	0.14 (0.18)
s.e.e.	0.24	0.20	0.19	0.19	0.19
R squared (adj)	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02
Services: (N=5,385)	0.00 (0.64)	-0.11 (0.56)	-0.01 (0.53)	0.07 (0.52)	-0.15 (0.52)
s.e.e.	0.67	0.59	0.56	0.55	0.54
R squared (adj)	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01

Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. Data are panels from 1990 to 1999. The dependent variable is the log of the ratio of the sum of consumption after March to consumption in January (tax cut) or February (coupon program). The estimated elasticity in the tax cut is the coefficient on tax cuts (see the text) relative to monthly pre-tax income in the previous year and that in the shopping coupons is the coefficient on coupons (computed as number of children x 20,000 yen) relative to monthly pre-tax income in the previous year. All regressions also include a quadratic in the age of the household head, the number of family members (the number of children under 15 and others respectively for the shopping coupons), and indicator variables for year. A household is eliminated if the number of family members is changed. Total consumption excludes durables.