Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
(7)	(8)	(9)
不幸	どちらで もない	まあまあ 幸せ	とても幸 せ	不幸	どちらで もない	まあまあ 幸せ	とても幸 せ	不幸	どちらで もない	まあまあ 幸せ	とても幸 せ
等価所得	-0.026	-0.019	0.000	0.045	-0.034	-0.025	0.000	0.060	-0.034	-0.025	0.000	0.060
等価消費	-0.010	-0.007	0.000	0.017	-0.010	-0.007	0.000	0.018	-0.010	-0.008	0.000	0.018
有配偶ダミー	-0.055	-0.037	0.008	0.084
夫の家事育児時間(平日)	-0.007	-0.005	0.000	0.011	-0.008	-0.006	0.000	0.015	-0.008	-0.006	0.000	0.015
就業ダミー	0.029	0.021	0.001	-0.051	0.029	0.022	0.001	-0.052
常勤ダミー
パート・アルバイトダミー
子供数	-0.003	-0.002	0.000	0.005	-0.008	-0.006	0.000	0.015	-0.009	-0.006	0.000	0.015
就学前子供ありダミー	0.001	0.001	0.000	-0.002
思春期子供ありダミー	0.002	0.001	0.000	-0.003
就学前子供ありダミー×子供数
思春期子供ありダミー×子供数
教育年数	-0.017	-0.012	0.000	0.029	-0.015	-0.011	0.000	0.027	-0.015	-0.011	0.000	0.027
年齢	0.007	0.005	0.000	-0.012	0.007	0.005	0.000	-0.012	0.007	0.005	0.000	-0.012
消費者ローンダミー	0.004	0.003	0.000	-0.007	0.002	0.001	0.000	-0.003	0.002	0.001	0.000	-0.003
住宅ローンダミー	0.007	0.005	0.000	-0.012	0.002	0.001	0.000	-0.003	0.002	0.001	0.000	-0.003
大都市ダミー	0.006	0.004	0.000	-0.010	0.010	0.007	0.000	-0.017	0.010	0.007	0.000	-0.017
中規模都市ダミー	-0.003	-0.002	0.000	0.005	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
(10)	(11)	(12)
不幸	どちらで もない	まあまあ 幸せ	とても幸 せ	不幸	どちらで もない	まあまあ 幸せ	とても幸 せ	不幸	どちらで もない	まあまあ 幸せ	とても幸 せ
等価所得	-0.034	-0.024	0.000	0.058	-0.036	-0.026	0.000	0.062
等価消費	-0.010	-0.007	0.000	0.017	-0.010	-0.007	0.000	0.018	-0.022	-0.015	0.000	0.037
有配偶ダミー
夫の家事育児時間(平日)	-0.009	-0.006	0.000	0.015	-0.008	-0.006	0.000	0.014	-0.009	-0.006	0.000	0.015
就業ダミー	0.030	0.022	0.001	-0.053	0.026	0.019	0.001	-0.045
常勤ダミー	0.038	0.027	-0.003	-0.062
パート・アルバイトダミー	0.027	0.019	-0.002	-0.043
子供数	-0.008	-0.006	0.000	0.013	-0.006	-0.004	0.000	0.011
就学前子供ありダミー
思春期子供ありダミー
就学前子供ありダミー×子供数	-0.003	-0.002	0.000	0.005
思春期子供ありダミー×子供数	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.001
教育年数	-0.015	-0.011	0.000	0.026	-0.015	-0.011	0.000	0.027	-0.023	-0.016	0.000	0.039
年齢	0.006	0.004	0.000	-0.010	0.007	0.005	0.000	-0.012	0.006	0.004	0.000	-0.010
消費者ローンダミー	0.002	0.001	0.000	-0.003	0.002	0.001	0.000	-0.003	-0.002	-0.001	0.000	0.003
住宅ローンダミー	0.001	0.000	0.000	-0.001	0.002	0.002	0.000	-0.004	-0.003	-0.002	0.000	0.004
大都市ダミー	0.012	0.008	-0.001	-0.020	0.011	0.008	0.000	-0.019	0.007	0.005	0.000	-0.011
中規模都市ダミー	0.001	0.001	0.000	-0.002	0.001	0.001	0.000	-0.001	-0.005	-0.003	0.000	0.008
(1)	(2)	(3)
不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらとも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足	不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらとも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足	不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらとも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足
等価所得	-0.027	-0.030	-0.024	0.035	0.047	-0.028	-0.031	-0.025	0.036	0.048	-0.026	-0.029	-0.023	0.033	0.045
等価消費	-0.008	-0.009	-0.007	0.011	0.014	-0.008	-0.009	-0.007	0.011	0.014	-0.008	-0.009	-0.007	0.010	0.014
有配偶ダミー	-0.017	-0.018	-0.014	0.022	0.027	-0.014	-0.015	-0.012	0.018	0.023	-0.022	-0.024	-0.018	0.029	0.035
夫の家事育児時間(平日)
就業ダミー	0.010	0.012	0.009	-0.013	-0.018	0.010	0.011	0.009	-0.013	-0.017
常勤ダミー
パート・アルバイトダミー
子供数	0.004	0.004	0.003	-0.005	-0.006	0.003	0.003	0.003	-0.004	-0.005
就学前子供ありダミー
思春期子供ありダミー
就学前子供ありダミー×子供数
思春期子供ありダミー×子供数
教育年数	-0.007	-0.008	-0.006	0.009	0.012	-0.007	-0.008	-0.006	0.009	0.012	-0.007	-0.008	-0.006	0.009	0.012
年齢	0.003	0.003	0.002	-0.004	-0.005	0.003	0.003	0.003	-0.004	-0.005	0.003	0.003	0.003	-0.004	-0.005
消費者ローンダミー	0.006	0.006	0.005	-0.007	-0.010	0.006	0.007	0.005	-0.008	-0.010	0.006	0.007	0.005	-0.008	-0.010
住宅ローンダミー	0.002	0.002	0.002	-0.002	-0.003	0.002	0.002	0.002	-0.003	-0.004	0.002	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.004
大都市ダミー	0.007	0.008	0.006	-0.009	-0.012	0.007	0.007	0.006	-0.009	-0.011	0.006	0.006	0.005	-0.007	-0.009
中規模都市ダミー	0.004	0.004	0.003	-0.005	-0.006	0.003	0.004	0.003	-0.004	-0.006	0.002	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.004
(4)	(5)	(6)
不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらとも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足	不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらとも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足	不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらとも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足
等価所得	-0.029	-0.033	-0.026	0.037	0.051	-0.027	-0.030	-0.024	0.035	0.047	-0.028	-0.031	-0.025	0.036	0.048
等価消費	-0.008	-0.009	-0.007	0.011	0.014	-0.008	-0.009	-0.007	0.011	0.014	-0.008	-0.009	-0.007	0.011	0.014
有配偶ダミー	-0.016	-0.017	-0.013	0.021	0.026	-0.013	-0.014	-0.011	0.017	0.021
夫の家事育児時間(平日)	-0.002	-0.002	-0.002	0.002	0.003	-0.002	-0.002	-0.001	0.002	0.003
就業ダミー	0.014	0.015	0.013	-0.017	-0.024	0.010	0.012	0.010	-0.013	-0.018	0.010	0.011	0.009	-0.013	-0.017
常勤ダミー
パート・アルバイトダミー
子供数	0.001	0.001	0.001	-0.001	-0.002	0.004	0.004	0.004	-0.005	-0.007
就学前子供ありダミー
思春期子供ありダミー
就学前子供ありダミー×子供数
思春期子供ありダミー×子供数
教育年数	-0.007	-0.008	-0.006	0.009	0.012	-0.007	-0.008	-0.006	0.009	0.012	-0.007	-0.008	-0.006	0.009	0.012
年齢	0.003	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.005	0.003	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.005	0.003	0.003	0.003	-0.004	-0.005
消費者ローンダミー	0.005	0.006	0.004	-0.006	-0.008	0.006	0.006	0.005	-0.007	-0.010	0.006	0.007	0.005	-0.008	-0.010
住宅ローンダミー	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.002	0.002	0.002	-0.002	-0.003	0.002	0.002	0.002	-0.003	-0.003
大都市ダミー	0.009	0.009	0.007	-0.011	-0.014	0.007	0.008	0.006	-0.009	-0.012	0.006	0.007	0.006	-0.008	-0.011
中規模都市ダミー	0.004	0.005	0.004	-0.005	-0.007	0.004	0.004	0.003	-0.005	-0.006	0.003	0.004	0.003	-0.004	-0.006
(7)	(8)	(9)
不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらとも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足	不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらとも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足	不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらとも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足
等価所得	-0.026	-0.029	-0.023	0.033	0.045	-0.029	-0.033	-0.026	0.038	0.051	-0.029	-0.032	-0.026	0.037	0.050
等価消費	-0.008	-0.009	-0.007	0.010	0.014	-0.008	-0.009	-0.007	0.011	0.014	-0.008	-0.009	-0.008	0.011	0.015
有配偶ダミー	-0.021	-0.023	-0.017	0.027	0.034
夫の家事育児時間(平日)	-0.002	-0.002	-0.002	0.002	0.003	-0.002	-0.003	-0.002	0.003	0.004	-0.003	-0.003	-0.002	0.003	0.004
就業ダミー	0.014	0.015	0.012	-0.017	-0.024	0.014	0.015	0.013	-0.017	-0.024
常勤ダミー
パート・アルバイトダミー
子供数	0.003	0.004	0.003	-0.004	-0.006	0.002	0.002	0.001	-0.002	-0.003	0.001	0.001	0.001	-0.001	-0.001
就学前子供ありダミー	0.002	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.004
思春期子供ありダミー	0.008	0.008	0.006	-0.010	-0.013
就学前子供ありダミー×子供数
思春期子供ありダミー×子供数
教育年数	-0.007	-0.008	-0.006	0.009	0.012	-0.007	-0.008	-0.006	0.009	0.012	-0.006	-0.007	-0.006	0.008	0.011
年齢	0.003	0.003	0.003	-0.004	-0.005	0.003	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.005	0.003	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.004
消費者ローンダミー	0.006	0.007	0.005	-0.008	-0.010	0.005	0.006	0.004	-0.007	-0.009	0.005	0.006	0.004	-0.007	-0.009
住宅ローンダミー	0.002	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
大都市ダミー	0.005	0.006	0.005	-0.007	-0.009	0.008	0.009	0.007	-0.011	-0.014	0.008	0.009	0.007	-0.011	-0.014
中規模都市ダミー	0.002	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.004	0.004	0.005	0.004	-0.005	-0.007	0.004	0.005	0.004	-0.005	-0.007
(10)	(11)	(12)
不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足	不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足	不満	どちらか
といえば
不満	どちらも
いえない	どちらか
といえば
満足	満足
等価所得	-0.029	-0.032	-0.026	0.037	0.050	-0.029	-0.033	-0.026	0.038	0.051
等価消費	-0.008	-0.009	-0.008	0.011	0.015	-0.008	-0.009	-0.007	0.011	0.014	-0.019	-0.019	-0.015	0.022	0.031
有配偶ダミー	-0.002	-0.003	-0.002	0.003	0.004
夫の家事育児時間(平日)	-0.003	-0.003	-0.002	0.003	0.004	-0.003	-0.003	-0.002	0.003	0.004
就業ダミー	0.014	0.016	0.013	-0.018	-0.025	0.012	0.012	0.010	-0.014	-0.020
常勤ダミー	0.014	0.015	0.012	-0.018	-0.023
パート・アルバイトダミー	0.014	0.016	0.012	-0.018	-0.023
子供数	0.002	0.002	0.001	-0.002	-0.003	0.004	0.004	0.003	-0.005	-0.006
就学前子供ありダミー
思春期子供ありダミー×子供数	0.002	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.004
思春期子供ありダミー×子供数	0.004	0.004	0.003	-0.005	-0.006
教育年数	-0.007	-0.007	-0.006	0.008	0.011	-0.007	-0.008	-0.006	0.009	0.012	-0.013	-0.014	-0.011	0.016	0.022
年齢	0.003	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.004	0.003	0.003	0.002	-0.003	-0.005	0.002	0.002	0.001	-0.002	-0.003
消費者ローンダミー	0.005	0.006	0.004	-0.006	-0.008	0.005	0.006	0.004	-0.007	-0.009	0.002	0.002	0.002	-0.003	-0.003
住宅ローンダミー	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.004	-0.004	-0.003	0.004	0.006
大都市ダミー	0.008	0.009	0.007	-0.011	-0.014	0.008	0.009	0.007	-0.011	-0.014	0.004	0.004	0.003	-0.005	-0.006
中規模都市ダミー	0.004	0.005	0.004	-0.005	-0.007	0.004	0.005	0.004	-0.005	-0.007	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
(平成 25 年度採択課題)

Ⅲ．研究課題別交付決定額等一覧
(单位円)

研究代表者名	所属研究機関名	役職	研究課題名	交付決定額	平成25年度交付額	平成25年度前倒し交付額	未交付額
藤本 岳洋	神戸大学	准教授	超高速度摄影および高精度数值解析を駆使した破壊制御評価法に関する基礎研究	5,200,000	2,210,000	0	2,990,000
本多 久夫	神戸大学	研究員	3次元細胞モデルを使って生体のキラリティーの由来を明らかにする	5,330,000	1,430,000	0	3,900,000
朴 杓允	神戸大学	その他	植物病理学のための酢酸ウランに代わるノンアイソトープ電子染色剤の新規開発	4,810,000	2,210,000	0	2,600,000
松尾 貴巳	神戸大学	教授	独立行政法人における業績管理システムの有効活用に関する研究	4,030,000	1,430,000	0	2,600,000
松尾 博文	神戸大学	教授	サブライチェーンにおける企業連携の構造特性分析	4,810,000	910,000	0	3,900,000
松尾 博哉	神戸大学	教授	外国人救急医療に対応する多言語医療会話支援支援モデルシステムの開発と臨床応用	5,070,000	2,730,000	0	2,340,000
松嶋 登	神戸大学	准教授	経営学における「リガーvs.レリバンス」問題に対する実践的研究	4,940,000	1,040,000	0	3,900,000
松田 毅	神戸大学	教授	ライブニッツの生物学と生命の哲学の研究	4,160,000	1,170,000	0	2,990,000
松田 宣子	神戸大学	教授	保健師が行う子ども虐待防止介入モデルの開発	4,940,000	1,430,000	0	3,510,000
松永 宣明	神戸大学	教授	バングラデシュにおける企業家能力の形成・発展に関する研究	3,770,000	1,300,000	0	2,470,000
松林 洋一	神戸大学	教授	世界経済の持続的成長と新たな国際政策協調：グローバル・ブルーデンス政策の構想	2,600,000	780,000	0	1,820,000
松本 知之	神戸大学	助教	難治性骨折に対するCD34陽性細胞移植術における有効な新規治療法の開発	4,940,000	1,560,000	0	3,380,000
松本 秀暢	神戸大学	准教授	羽田再国際化とLCC市場参入を活用した日本の拠点空港の国際競争力向上に向けた研究	4,810,000	1,690,000	0	3,120,000
三木 明德	神戸大学	教授	骨骼筋損傷に対する寒冷および温熱療法の影響	4,940,000	1,560,000	0	3,380,000
溝淵 雅巳	神戸大学	研究員	胎児付属物由来の間葉系幹細胞を用いた新生児慢性肺疾患に対する新規治療の開発	4,940,000	1,690,000	0	3,250,000
皆川 健太郎	神戸大学	その他	転写後調節因子TFLによるB細胞リンパ腫発症メカニズムの解明	4,940,000	2,210,000	0	2,730,000
南 陽介	神戸大学	講師	急性骨髓性白血病の微小環境における治療抵抗性機序の解明および克服療法の基礎研究	4,940,000	1,950,000	0	2,990,000
箋原 俊洋	神戸大学	教授	1930年代の日米関係・・・・
(单位円)

研究代表者名	所属研究機関名	役職	研究課題名	交付決定額	平成25年度交付額	平成25年度前倒し交付額	未交付額
前田健	独立行政法人労働者健康福祉機構総合せき損センター（研究部）	研究員	思春期特発性側喬症の原因と進行に関わる因子の解明と新規治療法の開発	4,940,000	1,820,000	0	3,120,000
八尾博史	独立行政法人国立病院機構肥前精神医療センター（臨床研究部）	その他	過剰な食塩摂取による脳梗塞病態増悪の機序に関する実験的研究	5,070,000	2,990,000	0	2,080,000
伊東正博	独立行政法人国立病院機構（長崎医療センター臨床研究センター）	その他	放射線誘発甲状腺がんの発生機序の解明	5,070,000	1,950,000	0	3,120,000
中根俊成	独立行政法人国立病院機構長崎川棚医療センター（臨床研究部）	その他	自己免疫性自律神経節障害における自己抗体測定系の確立と臨床像解析	4,940,000	3,120,000	0	1,820,000
成田智子	独立行政法人国立病院機構長崎川棚医療センター（臨床研究部）	その他	重症筋無力症のアセチルコリン受容体主要免疫原性領域に対する抗体・多施設共同研究	5,070,000	2,990,000	0	2,080,000
臼杵扶佐子	国立水俣病総合研究センター	その他	環境ストレスによるmRNA監視機構の変動と病態への影響に関する研究	3,900,000	1,600,000	0	2,300,000
藍田知史	医療法人徳洲会札幌東德洲会病院付属臨床研究センター	その他	誘導がん幹細胞の大量増幅と、HSP結合抗原パルス樹状細胞による個別化がん免疫誘導	5,070,000	1,690,000	0	3,380,000
水上裕輔	医療法人徳洲会札幌東德洲会病院付属臨床研究センター	その他	がん・骨髓クロストークの可視化による腫癌血管の異常性検出と、治療抵抗性の評価系	5,070,000	1,690,000	0	3,380,000
佐伯晃一	ディナベック株式会社	研究員	発現制御型センダイウイスベクターを用いたインスリン産生細胞の誘導と機能解析	5,070,000	2,990,000	0	2,080,000
長島一郎	大成建設株式会社技術センター	研究員	長周期地震動に対する建物のフィードフォワード振動制御システムの開発	5,200,000	1,300,000	0	3,900,000
伊関崇	株式会社豊田中央研究所	研究員	放射光が解き明かすDLC膜の微細構造	5,070,000	1,690,000	0	3,380,000
向和彦	株式会社豊田中央研究所	研究員	ノントポタクティック無歪みリチウムインサーション材料に関する研究	5,070,000	1,430,000	0	3,640,000
池田徹志	株式会社国際電気通信基礎技術研究所	研究員	遮蔽の定量的評価と場所依存行動モデルによる人物追跡	4,810,000	1,950,000	0	2,860,000
河野泰人	日本電信電話株式会社NTTコミュニケーション科学基礎研究所	研究員	非可換群上の量子フーリエ変換とその応用	2,730,000	1,170,000	0	1,560,000
小早川明良	特定非営利活動法人社会理論・動態研究所	研究員	部落問題についての「科学的」言説批判	3,640,000	2,210,000	0	1,430,000
基盤研究（C）合計	10070件	（うち前倒し請求課題数194件）	46,339,550,183	19,047,518,183	116,728,000	27,292,032,000
ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.185

Business Cycle Fluctuations in Japanese Macroeconomic Time Series: 1980-2000

by

SATOSHI URASAWA

June 2007

Economic and Social Research Institute

Cabinet Office

Tokyo, Japan
# Business Cycle Fluctuations in Japanese Macroeconomic Time Series: $ ^{1} $ 1980-2000

SATOSHI URASAWA $ ^{\dagger} $

## Abstract

This paper provides the robust stylized facts for recent Japanese business cycle fluctuations, by examining the cyclical component of macroeconomic time series based on the frequency domain analysis. The results confirm many of the conventional views on business cycles in Japan. Among the most interesting findings are that non-scheduled hours worked helps to predict the aggregate fluctuations. Distinctively, because of the behavior of non-scheduled cash earnings and bonuses, wages in Japan are very sensitive to changes in the level of economic activity. Also significant, the relationship between money and output has changed dramatically after the collapse of bubble economy in 1991.

JEL numbers: E320

Key words: business cycle fluctuations, Japan, band-pass filter
### I. Introduction

The Japanese economy has experienced many unusual economic developments since the late 1980s, including the collapse of the economic bubble with a precipitous drop in stock and land prices, the subsequent disinflation of domestic prices, and the rapid expansion of nation’s budget deficit. Much recent literature has focused on this particular period covering the causes of the economic stagnation in the 1990s and the monetary, fiscal and supply-side solutions proposed for the recovery. $ ^{2} $

While there is a fair amount of previous work which focuses on particular issues from Japan’s experience, there is little work which deals with the business cycle fluctuations that the Japanese economy has confronted during the past twenty years. $ ^{3} $ This is regrettable since business cycle fluctuations are one of the central concepts in macroeconomics.

Table 1 summarizes the history of business cycles in Japan since World War II. According to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Cabinet Office, the Japanese economy has experienced thirteen business cycles in the past fifty years. $ ^{4} $

Both the original and the cyclical component of real output, which is obtained by applying the approximate band-pass filter, are plotted together with the peaks and
troughs of each business cycle in Figure 1. $ ^{5} $ Not surprisingly, fluctuations in real output capture the main stream of business cycles over the period, 1980:Q1-2004:Q3, including the recession of 1985-86, with the appreciation of the yen, the bubble economy and its collapse of the late 1980s and the early 1990s, and another recession from 1997-99 caused by a financial crisis.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically characterize the business cycle fluctuations, and establish the stylized facts for the Japanese economy since 1980, based on the observable macroeconomic time series. To this end we apply frequency domain analysis of time series, following Stock and Watson (1999). $ ^{6} $

The results of this study provide the robust stylized facts which confirm conventional views on Japanese business cycle fluctuations: for instance, non-scheduled hours worked has played a key role as a buffer for labor inputs, and wages in Japan are significantly related to the economic activities through non-scheduled cash earnings and bonuses. Also, in a business cycle sense, the relationship between money and output has dramatically changed after the collapse of bubble economy in 1991. This finding is potentially useful in understanding the mechanism behind the economic stagnation of
Japan during the 1990s.

By providing Japan’s stylized facts, this study also contributes to the growing comparative literature on the modern. Stock and Watson (1999) have established the stylized facts for the U.S. economy since World War II. In advance of this U.S. work, Englund et al. (1992) have presented the stylized facts for Swedish business cycles over 100 years, applying a combination procedure of the Hodrick-Prescott (1980) filter and the band-pass filter. Backus and Kehoe (1992) are also noteworthy for their explicit comparison of international business cycle properties.

In the next section, we briefly describe the properties of the macroeconomic time series and classic statistics that will be used in this study. In section three, we report our findings, that is the stylized facts for the Japanese business cycle fluctuations based on the empirical characters of each series. Section four concludes the paper by briefly restating the stylized facts we establish in this study. Two appendices explain the technique for isolating a business cycle component of macroeconomic time series, and provide the cyclical regularities of macroeconomic series after World War II.

### I I. Data description and statistics summary

More than 50 quarterly macroeconomic time series have been examined in this study. $ ^{7} $ These series consist of six categories: GDP components, aggregate employment,
wages, deflators and prices, interest rates and stock price, and money and exchange rate.

In order to characterize the business cycle fluctuations based on the macroeconomic time series, we use several classic statistics: standard deviation and first order auto-correlation of the cyclical component of each series $ X_{t} $ , and six orders of cross-correlation of the cyclical component of each series with the cyclical component of real output $ g_{dpt+k} $ , with the k quarter of lead or lag. Standard deviation and cross-correlation of each series tell the scale of its variation and the strength of its relation with the cyclical component of real output respectively. We assume that series $ X_{t} $ is pro-cyclical if its cross-correlation is positive and counter-cyclical if its cross-correlation is negative. Moreover, we tend to think that series $ X_{t} $ has a lagging property if its maximum correlation appears with lagged real output.

### I II. Discussion on the stylized facts for Japan

Overall what we have obtained is quite consistent with conventional views on business cycle fluctuations in Japan. With the exception of the labor input series, the results also tend to follow the familiar characteristics of U.S. business cycle fluctuations. $ ^{8} $

### A. GDP components

Consistent with the permanent income hypothesis, private consumption is least
volatile; investment, exports, and imports are most volatile. All of the series are pro-cyclical, except for government consumption and public investment (see Table 2).

Private consumption is pro-cyclical, possibly with a lead, implying that private consumption might predict fluctuation in output, rather than output predicting consumption as suggested by the traditional Keynesian model. That consumption might have a significant impact on business cycle has also been pointed out in Motonishi and Yoshikawa (1999). In the 1980s, private consumption played an important role in powering Japan's strong economy. In contrast, since 1991 sluggish consumption due to uncertainty over the future has had a very negative force. Table 3 shows that the cyclical component of private consumption precedes output both before and after 1991.

Private non-residential investment is strongly pro-cyclical with a lag, while interestingly, private residential investment is pro-cyclical with a lead of two quarters. $ ^{9} $ It has an intimate relationship with output in each recovery and recession period. In contrast, public investment is counter-cyclical with a lag. This is because public investment in this period is made as a reaction to stabilize the economy.

Exports are contemporaneously pro-cyclical. Imports are strongly pro-cyclical with a lead of two quarters. Again, as the case with consumption, this implies that imports could predict the movement of output.

### B. Aggregate employment

Employment, total hours worked, average hours worked, and labor productivity are
pro-cyclical, while unemployment rate is strongly counter-cyclical with a lag of one quarter. The variations of these series are relatively stable (See Table 4).

Employment is pro-cyclical with a lag of two or more quarters. $ ^{10} $ Since a desired change in labor input tends to be accomplished by adjusting hours worked first, instead of the number of employees, employment would be lagged, and also relatively stable even in both the expansionary phase and recessionary phase in Japan.

Average hours worked (total) is pro-cyclical with a lead, scheduled hours worked doesn’t show clear cyclicality, and interestingly, non-scheduled hours worked is strongly pro-cyclical with a lead and is very volatile. Again, as Saito (1997) has discussed, at the very beginning of an expansionary phase firms tend to increase non-scheduled hours worked first so as to reach their new levels of production. Therefore the correlation between non-scheduled hours worked and output becomes very strong, and the fluctuation in non-scheduled hours worked is large. In other words, in Japan non-scheduled hours worked has been playing a key role buffering labor inputs, and the timing and magnitude of its change are very important in predicting fluctuations in output.

### C. Wages

Cyclicality of wages is a traditional concern of many studies. In consequence we pay particular attention to the cyclical component of wages and examine several different types of series.
Basically, wages are pro-cyclical with a lag of two or three quarters regardless of the type of series. Results also suggest that wages are significantly related to the economic activities in Japan through the non-scheduled cash earnings and bonuses (See Table 5). It is important to note that the strength of the correlation with output in Japan is much larger than what Stock and Watson (1999) find working with U.S. data. $ ^{11} $

It appears the same mechanism that works for labor inputs also works in hours worked can be applied for wages. Non-scheduled cash earnings are very volatile and clearly pro-cyclical with a lead, while scheduled cash earnings are stable and acyclical. This means wages will be adjusted by non-scheduled cash earnings at the first stage of each expansion and/or recession. The high volatility of bonus payments complements reinforces the impact of non-scheduled cash earnings. The bonuses, unlike contractual cash earnings, are closely related to the firm's performance. Thus, like unscheduled cash earnings, it is adjusted relatively easily. This accounts for the contrast with the U.S. case.

### D. Deflators and Prices

Table 6 shows that the contemporaneous correlation coefficients of both the GDP deflator and consumer price index are slightly negative, while as in Yoshizoe et al (2003) the growth rates of these series are pro-cyclical with a lag of three or four quarters, this can be interpreted by the inflation-output tradeoff.

$ ^{11} $ Stock and Watson (1999) conclude that “real wages have essentially no contemporaneous co-movement with the business cycle.” by referring the cross-correlation with output. Since the definition of series in each study is different, the statistics should be interpreted with care.
### E. Interest rates and stock price

Short-term rates such as call rate, and Tokyo inter-bank offered rate (3 Months) are contemporaneously pro-cyclical, or pro-cyclical with a possible lag. Government bonds and long-term prime lending rate are also pro-cyclical. Stock price is pro-cyclical with a lead of four quarters and most volatile (See Table 7).

### F. Money and Exchange rate

Both the level of money stock and monetary base are pro-cyclical with a leading property. At least, in a business cycle sense, there exists a positive relationship between money and output (See Table 8).

An enormous amount of effort has been made to investigate the exact relationship between money and output which is viewed by many as the most important relationship in macroeconomics. A detailed theoretical and empirical discussion on this issue is not the purpose of this paper, but it is useful to look at this relationship in light of the dramatic changes in the economic and monetary environment before and after the collapse of bubble economy in 1991. It is worth asking how the changes that have occurred over this period influenced the character of business cycle fluctuations, and most particularly the relationship between money and output. $ ^{12} $