Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
## (Continuous improvement of employment situation in 2013)

Look at the transition of the unemployment rate and the ratio of active job openings to active job applicants in Figure 3. After the gradual economic recovery, the unemployment rate has fallen below 4.0% in June 2013 for the first time in four years and eight months. The ratio of active job openings to active job applicants has exceeded 1 in November 2013 for the first time in six years and one month. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.6% and the jobs-to-applicants ratio increased to 1.05 in the period from January to March 2014. This shows the steady improvement of employment situation.

In 2013, the number of people who "left their job on account of the employer or business," which can easily be influenced by economic trends, decreased significantly. Looking at trends of the unemployed by reason for remaining to be unemployed, the ratio of those who "are not able to find a job even though they are not fussy about conditions," which is considered to be unemployment due to demand shortage, is declining after 2010.

## Figure 1: Analysis of factors of real GDP growth rate

In 2013, real GDP growth rate increased by 1.5% from the previous year thanks to domestic consumption and public demand. (Seasonally adjusted, %)

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on the "National Accounts" (Second preliminary report. Jan-Mar 2014), Cabinet Office

(Note) 1) Net export = Export - Import

2) Total private fixed asset formation = private housing + private business facilities + increase in private inventory

3) For breakdown by demand item, total contribution level in each item and GDP (expenditure) growth rate do not always correspond.

Figure 2: Changes in production index and activity index

☐ The level is high in general/production/commercial machine in manufacturing and construction, etc. in non-manufacturing.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on "Indices of Industrial Production," "Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity," "Indices of All Industry Activity" Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

(Note) 1) For manufacturing, seasonally adjusted figure in January to March 2008 is set to 100 instead of the usual 2010 = 100. For

non-manufacturing, seasonally adjusted figure in January to March 2008 is set to 100 instead of the usual 2005 = 100.

2) The shadowed part in the graph indicates a recession period. Figures between the period from July to September 2012 and October to December 2012 are provisional.
increased in all age groups. When focused on the decreased ratio of male regular workers aged between 25 and 34, the ratio of female regular workers is increasing at the same level as the decreased ratio of male workers in the period from 2003 to 2013. This means that the total ratio of male and female regular workers had remained unchanged.

The ratio of non-regular workers to employees excluding executive officers has been increasing in recent years. The ratio of regular workers to young male population slightly decreased but there is no sign of considerable decline in the ratio of regular workers to the total male and female population. It is considered that unemployed people who participated in the labour market in the form of non-regular employment in conjunction with changes in economic and social situation have significantly affected the result.

## (The number of employees significantly increased in the present recovery phase)

Using Figure 7, we shall compare production and labour input with those in the past recovery phases.

The characteristic of the present phase is the slight decrease in the number of employees in manufacturing industries. In non-manufacturing industries, the significant rise in the level of activity has increased labour input, especially the number of employees in particular.

In this way, the present recovery phase is characterized by the increased number of employees who significantly contributed to the increase of entire labour input.

Figure 4: Difference in the number of employees from the previous year by industry and occupation in 2013

By industry, the number of employees notably increased in medical and welfare services, wholesale and retail trades, accommodation, and eating and drinking services. By occupation, the number of carrying, cleaning, packaging, and related workers, service workers, and clerical workers increased.

Source: "Labour Force Survey," "Labour Force Survey (detailed tabulation)" Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

## Figure 5: Transition of the number of employees, by employment form

○ The number of non-regular workers is gradually increasing, while the number of regular workers is slightly decreasing due to the influence of population decline.

Source: "Labour Force Survey (detailed tabulation)" Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
○ The ratio of regular workers to population aged between 15 and 64 had slightly increased in the period from 2005 to 2007, and has remained unchanged after that.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on the “Labour Force Survey (detailed tabulation)” Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Figure 7: Relationship between production (activity) level and labour input, in comparison with the past periods of economic recovery

○ The present recovery phase is characterized by the increased number of employees who significantly contributed to the increase of entire labour input.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on "Monthly Labour Survey," MHLW, "Labour Force Survey," Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Indices of Industrial Production" "Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity" and "Indices of All Industry Activity" Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
more balanced and it is considered that we will soon be able to develop an environment that can provide a sustainable wage increase.

## (It is important to improve labour productivity in order to increase real wages)

Figure 13 shows that the increase rate of real wages becomes higher according to the increase rate of real labour productivity. Therefore, it is important to improve labour productivity in order to link the expansion of corporate profits with wage increase for the realization of a virtuous economic cycle.

There are two factors that increase labour productivity: increase in capital-labour ratio and increase in total factor productivity (TFP). TFP can be influenced by various factors including changes in capital quality (introduction of advanced IT technology, etc.) and labour quality (improvement of workers' abilities through educational training). Here, we will focus on IT investment and labour quality.

Figure 14 shows the relationship between the IT capital-labour ratio and labour productivity. The figure shows that labour productivity increases relative to the increase in IT capital-labour ratio in manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, although there are some differences. At the same time, Figure 15 indicates that labour productivity increases as labour quality becomes higher.

In this way, it is necessary to put investment on IT capital and improve labour quality by accumulating human capital through human resources development inside and outside the workplace.

Figure 11: Analysis of factors of year-on-year of employees' real income

In 2013, the increase rate in the number of employees exceeded the downward impact from commodity price increase, and employee's real income increased.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on "Monthly Labour Survey," MHLW and "Labour Force Survey," "Consumer Price Index" Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

(Note) 1) Income of employees is calculated by multiplying the number of employees (excluding agriculture and forestry industry) by total sum of cash earnings and "general index excluding attributed rent of one's own house" is used to determine the deflator of real value.

2) Total sum of cash earnings is the total of the surveyed industries for business establishments with 5 or more employees.
4) Pooled data from 2005 to 2010

5) Figures in brackets are t-value.
## (Consumption tax rise and last-minute demand)

We will check the status of last-minute demand ahead of the consumption tax increase using Figure 17.

For housing, there was a special measure where the former consumption tax rate of 5% was applied to housing whose construction contract was signed by the end of September 2013, even if the house was handed over after April 2014. Therefore, many contracts were signed in the last minute by September 2013 and the construction work expenditures are added up a few months later. According to the number of new houses whose construction started, it is considered that there was the last-minute demand from the summer of 2013.

Automobiles had maintained a high level since the autumn of 2013 until around January 2014. The number of automobiles sold was approximately 5.38 million in 2013, increased from the previous year when the number grew significantly due to the introduction of the Eco-Car Subsidy Program.

In the past, there were some demands for repurchase of home electric appliances with higher unit prices when the eco-point system for home electric appliances was introduced and Japan made a transition to digital terrestrial broadcasting. The demand increased significantly in March 2014.

In March 2014, other demands including retailers of various products, retailers of woven products, clothing and personal belongings, retailers of pharmaceutical and cosmetic products and food and beverage retailers showed rapid increase. It is considered that there was a spike in the demand of daily commodities and food ahead of the consumption tax increase.

## Figure 16: Consumer expenditures and real income of workers' households

From the end of 2012 to early spring of 2013, consumer spending rapidly increased thanks to the improvement in the minds of consumers who look forward to economic recovery. After that, it decreased as the rise of stock prices stagnated but showed a considerable increase in the period from January to March 2014 due to the last-minute demand before consumption tax rate increased.

Source: "Family Income and Expenditure Survey" Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Note) 1) The figures are those of workers' households with 2 or more members.

2) Nominal values, seasonally adjusted.
## Figure 17: Last-minute demand before the increase of consumption tax

○ Last-minute demand increased from the summer of 2013 for housing and after the autumn of 2013 for automobiles.

○ Last-minute demand increased in daily commodities and food in March, 2014.

(1) The number of new house constructions

(2) Commercial sales index by industry

(3) Commercial sales index by industry

(1) Source: "Survey on Construction Statistics" Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

(2)(3) Source: "Census of Commerce" Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry

(Note) Seasonally adjusted
Figure 18: Transition of unemployment rate by regional block

In 2013, the national average unemployment rate has been on a decreasing trend in all blocks with the difference shrinking from national average compared to 2006 when the national average unemployment rate was at the same level.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on the "Labour Force Survey" Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

(Note) 1) Figures are seasonally adjusted.

2) Composition of each block is as follows.

Hokkaido

Hokkaido

Tohoku

Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata, Fukushima

South Kanto

Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa

Kita-Kanto, Koshin

Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Yamanashi, Nagano

Hokuriku

Niigata, Toyama, Ishikawa, Fukui

Tokai

Gifu, Shizuoka, Aichi, Mie

Kinki

Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara, Wakayama

Chugoku

Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi

Shikoku

Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime, Kochi

Kyusyu and Okinawa Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, Miyagi, Kagoshima, Okinawa

3) The shadowed part in the graph indicates a recession period. Figures between the period from July to September 2012 and October to December 2012 are provisional.

Figure 19: Changes in the average wage at job offer in three prefectures that were affected by the earthquake

○ Comparing with the average wage at job offer in April 2011, total sum in all occupations increased in December 2013 and the increase amount was in particular large in block fixing and construction machine operation workers, construction and mining workers, and construction, civil and measurement engineers.

Source: “Report on Employment Service,” Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

(Note) 1) Categories are those in the "Occupational Classification developed by the Ministry of Labour (revised in 1999)" before December 2011, and those in the "Occupational Classification developed by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (revised in 2011)" after March 2012.

2) March 2012 = 100 for "Sales workers" and "manufacturing process workers"
Figure 20: Analysis of factors of year-on-year of total sum of cash earnings by regional block (2013)

☐ The total sum of cash earnings increased in all regional blocks except for Hokkaido and Kinki.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on "Monthly Labour Survey (nationwide)" and "Monthly Labour Survey (regional)," MHLW.

(Note) 1) Total of the surveyed industries; business establishments with 5 or more employees (general workers)

3) Nationwide values are the result of nationwide Monthly Labour Survey and not the average or total of regional survey results by prefecture.

2) Calculated by adding weight of number of general workers to values of each prefecture.
the number of part-time workers who were labour union members was 914,000 persons in 2013 (up by 77,000 persons and by 9.2% from the last year); the ratio of part-time workers to all labour union members increased from 8.5% last year to 9.3%, and the estimated unionization rate of part-time workers was 6.5%, showing the increase tendency. Improvement of personal treatment for non-regular workers was also listed in the demands of the shunto (annual spring wage offensive) of 2014. The labour side strengthened its activities.

Figure 21: Results of wage increase

☐ In the shunto (annual spring wage offensive) in 2014, many companies agreed to raise wages.

Source: "Situation of Demands and Conclusions of Negotiations for Wage Increase in Major Private Companies (Springtime)" MHLW, "Settlement Results of the Labour-Management Negotiations in the Springtime in Large-Scale Businesses (weighted average)(final results)" Japan Business Federation, "Results of Final Responses to the Policy for Spring Struggle for a Better Life" Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Note) 1) In principle, major companies surveyed for the "Situation of Demands and Conclusions of Negotiations for Wage Increase in Major Private Companies (Springtime)" before 2003 are those having a labour union with a capital of 2 billion yen or more and 1,000 or more employees, of those which are listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange or Osaka Securities Exchange. Companies surveyed after 2004 is basically those having a labour union with a capital of 1 billion or more and 1,000 or more employees (weighted average).

2) Calculation for RENGO is the union total and includes unions of small and medium-sized enterprises with less than 299 employees.

3) Companies surveyed by KEIDANREN (large-scale businesses) are basically those that are listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and with 500 or more employees.

Figure 22: Transition of the estimated membership ratio of part-time workers

○ The ratio of the part-time workers who are labour union members to all labour union members tends to increase.

Source: "Basic Survey on Labour Unions" Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; "Labour Force Survey" Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

(Note) 1) The "total number of labour union members" and "ratio of the part-time workers who are labour union members to all labour union members" are those under the table for unit labour unions.
Under the table covering the unit labour unions, each unit-treated union which is a sub-organization of a single organization union or unit organization union, is considered as one union upon tabulation.

The unit organization union is a labour union which workers join as individuals under the union rules and which does not internally have sub-organizations (such as branches) operating independently.

The single organization union is a labour union which workers join as individuals under the union rules and which internally has sub-organizations (such as branches).

2) "Part-time workers" means the workers who are other than regular employees and staff, and whose scheduled working hours per day are shorter than those of the full-time workers in the business establishment, or whose scheduled working hours per week are shorter than those of full-time workers in the business establishment even if the scheduled working hours per day are the same as those of the full-time workers, or who are called part-timers, part-time employees, etc. in the business establishment.

3) "Estimated membership ratio" means the value obtained by dividing the number of part-time workers who are labour union members, by the number of short-time employees; the number of short-time employees is that of the employees whose working hours are less than 35 hours per week, and is based on the Labour Force Survey (June each year).

4) The estimated membership ratio of part-time workers in 2011 is not represented, as the number of short-time employees, which is used as the denominator and is based on the Labour Force Survey (June 2011), is not published due to the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Figure 23: Changes in import import penetration ratio by industry

o Industries whose import penetration ratio increased considerably after 2000 are textile mill products, manufacturing of timber/wooden products/furniture and manufacturing of electric machinery.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on the "Japan Industrial Productivity (JIP) Database 2013" The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry

(Note) 1) The industrial classification complies with the correspondence relationship between JIP section classification and SNA industrial classification.

2) Figure only shows industries with an import penetration ratio (nominal import/nominal production) exceeding 10% as of 2010.

Figure 24: Relationship between import penetration ratio and added value (changes from 2000 to 2010)

○ Added value decreases as import penetration ratio increases.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on the "Japan Industrial Productivity (JIP) Database 2013" The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry

(Note) 1) Figure only shows manufacturing industries that are classified in JIP database.

2) Added value is defined as output - intermediate input.

4) It should be noted that this relationship is affected by industrial category, etc.

3) Figures in brackets are t-value.

Figure 25: Relationship between added value and the number of employees (changes from 2000 to 2010)

☐ The number of employees significantly falls as the decreased rate of industry's added value becomes higher.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on the "Japan Industrial Productivity (JIP) Database 2013" The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry

(Note) 1) Figure only shows manufacturing industries that are classified in JIP database.

2) Added value is defined as output - intermediate input.

4) It should be noted that this relationship is affected by industrial category, etc.

3) Figures in brackets are t-value.
## Figure 26: Decrease level of the number of employees in manufacturing industry (changes from 2000 to 2010)

In all manufacturing industries, the number of employees decreased from 2.32 million in the period between 2000 and 2010. The top 5 manufacturing industries with higher decrease rate of added value account for about 70% of the total number of employees decreased.

Source: Prepared by the Office of Counselor for Labour Policy, MHLW, based on the "Japan Industrial Productivity (JIP) Database 2013" The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry

(The number of clerical and manufacturing process jobs is decreasing, while the number of professional and engineering jobs is increasing)

It is pointed out that the technical revolution including IT may change occupational structures. For example, streamlining operations and replacing manual operations with automated operations may decrease the number of employment opportunities. Standardization and equalization of internal operations may cause decline in enterprise-specific human capital, resulting in a decrease in the demand of regular workers and an increase in the demand of non-regular workers.

According to Figure 27 that shows changes in occupational structures between 2007 and 2012, the number of regular employees decreased in almost all occupations except for professional and engineering. On the other hand, looking at the characteristics of non-regular employment, the number of employees decreased in machine assembly and production process and labour services, while the number increased in other occupations.

Looking at the relationship between occupation and IT capital-labour ratio, the ratio of professional and engineering workers is higher and the ratio of manufacturing process workers is lower in occupations with higher IT capital-labour ratio. The tendency is higher in manufacturing industry (main document Chapter 2 - (1) - Figure 12).

## (Uncertainty of management may have influence on the ratio of part-time workers)

It is considered that increase in the uncertainty of management gives companies an incentive to perform elastic adjustment of employment, thus increase the demand of non-regular employment. Therefore, we will now look at the changes in the standard deviation of sales increase rate by manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry and part-time job offer ratio (ratio of part-time job to total new job offers) that shows the demand of part-time employment by companies, based on the "standard deviation" of sales increase rate as an index of changes in business earnings in Figure 28.

The standard deviation of sales increase rate continued to rise since the collapse of the bubble economy, but the rate slightly slowed down in the long period of economic expansion since 2002. However, the standard deviation showed additional increase after the financial crisis, followed by a decrease trend. The rate of part-time job offers has been changing in a certain correlation with the standard deviation of sales increase rate. In this way, the uncertainty of business management is likely to have an influence on labour demands.