Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
第2節 広報体制の充実……504
1 新しい情報発信手段の活用……504

第3節 情報化の推進……505
1 情報化の推進……505
2 情報化の推進に向けた主な取組み……505
3 個人情報保護……507

第4節 行政機関における情報公開・個人情報保護等の推進……508
1 行政機関情報公開法の施行……508
2 行政機関個人情報保護法の施行……509
3 公益通報者保護法の施行……509
4 「国民の皆様の声」の集計報告……510
5 厚生労働行政モニターについて……510

第5節 政策評価などの取組み……511
1 政策評価の取組み……511
2 独立行政法人評価の取組み……511
3 アフターサービスの推進……512
## コラム

国立社会保障・人口問題研究所について ……12
人口減少・少子化に対する国民の意識 ……19
「合計特殊出生率」と「国民希望出生率」について ……22
世界の人口問題への対応 ……51
大学における「婚育」教育～明治大学における「婚育」講義 ……77
少子化対策の一環としての婚活支援事業 ……86
不姫について ……103
都市部の保育所設置をめぐる状況と対応
～地域とのつながりの中で子どもを育む世田谷区太子堂なごみ保育園～ ……151
国立大学法人福井大学～高い地元就職率達成のための取組み～ ……166
「移住者誘致の先駆け」 ～北海道伊達市の取組み～ ……173
公共交通を軸とした「コンパクト」なまちづくりをめざす富山市 ……175
地域で広域的に必要な生活機能を確保し、人口減少を食い止める
～飯田市を中心とした南信州定住自立圏と下條村～ ……177
名張版ネウボラ ～名張市の妊娠・出産包括支援の取組み～ ……222
女性の健康づくり ……226
京都市～平成26年度に新たに待機児童ゼロを達成した政令指定都市～ ……232
福岡市保育士・保育所支援センター ～保育士就労支援の取組み～ ……235
子育て・介護と仕事との両立支援
～群馬県桐生市・有限会社COCO－LOの取組み～ ……246
男性従業員の育児と仕事の両立支援 ～アース・クリエイト有限会社の取組み～ ……247
福井県 ～高い合計特殊出生率、共働き世帯割合日本一の県～ ……249
地域包括ケアシステムと地域における保健師の活動 ……258
「地域を見守る」社会貢献活動 ～明治安田生命保険相互会社の取組み～ ……258
高知県で整備が進む地域福祉の拠点「あったかふれあいセンター」 ……261
明石市における離婚後の「こども養育支援」に関する取組み ……282
ニート等の若者の就職を目指す地域若者サポートステーション「サポステ佐賀」…294
戦中・戦後の労苦を次世代に伝える昭和館・しようけい館 ……362
# 平成25年度補正予算による継続課題に係る継続評価書

研究機関 : (株)日立製作所

研究開発課題

： 超高速・低消費電力光ネットワーク技術の研究開発

課題 I (c) プロトコル無依存リンク多重化技術

研究開発期間 ： 平成 24 ～ 26 年度

代表研究責任者：坂本健一

☑ 総合評価：適

(評価点 20 点／ 25 点中)

(総論)

引き続き研究開発を推進することが適当。

(コメント)

● 計画通りに進捗しており、今後も十分な成果が期待できるが、成果発表の積み増しを望む。

● ここまで方式の検討が中心であり, 実動作の検証が始まったばかりであることから, 実証システムの構築に当たっては, 十分な動作確認を行うことが必要と思われる。

● 目標は達成見込みとのことであるが、検討会では具体的な説明が乏しかった。最終年度の実証・連携実験における成果を期待する。
## (1) 当該年度における研究開発の目標達成(見込み)状況

$$ \left(5\sim1{ of}5{ 段階評価 }\right)\ :\ 評価 4{( 評価点 )} $$

(総論)

計画通りの成果が得られ、一部に進歩的な成果等が認められる。

(コメント)

計画通りの成果が得られているが、国内のみならず、海外での研究発表を期待する。

● ほとんどの課題において方式検討が終了し, ハードウェア実装の初期段階に到達している。

● 目標は達成見込みとのことであるが、具体的な説明が乏しかった。

## (2) 当該年度における研究資金使用状況

$ 5\sim1 $ の5段階評価）：評価4(評価点)

(総論)

予算計画書あるいは適切な理由に基づく支出変更理由に則り、有効、効率的かつ適正な執行が行われている。さらに、資金管理などの面で優れた取り組みが認められる。

(コメント)

研究費は、ほぼ当初の予算計画通り執行されている。

## (3) 研究開発実施計画

（5～1の5段階評価）：評価4（評価点）

(総論)

実行可能であり有効かつ効率的な計画である。

(コメント)

動作検証・性能検証、課題間連携を含めて、実行可能な計画になっている。

これまでの検討結果を実装して実証実験を行う計画であり,十分実現可能な内容となっている。

● 実証・連携実験における更なる成果発表を期待する。
## (4) 予算計画

（5～1の5段階評価）：評価4（評価点）

(総論)

有効かつ効率的な予算計画が組まれており、積算額も妥当である。

(コメント)

● 目標達成に向けて有効かつ効率的な予算計画が組まれており, 積算額も含めて妥当である。

## (5) 实施体制

$ 5\sim1 $ の5段階評価）：評価4(評価点)

(総論)

適切な実施体制が組まれており、計画通りの事業進捗が見込まれる。

(コメント)

課題間の連携を含めて、適切な実施体制になっている。

● 適切な実施体制が組まれており, 計画通りの進捗が見込まれる。
ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.212

# Environmental Latecomer’s Effects in Chinese Provinces

by

Hiroyuki Taguchi and Harutaka Murofushi

March 2009

Economic and Social Research Institute

Cabinet Office

Tokyo, Japan
# Environmental Latecomer’s Effects in Chinese Provinces $ ^{*} $

by

Hiroyuki Taguchi and Harutaka Murofushi $ * $ *
## Abstract

This study examines, with a focus on regional environmental states in China, whether regional latecomers enjoy the spillover effects of nation-wide progress in environmental management and technology, or stay behind from environmental progress, or even suffer the “pollution heaven” effects through the relocation of polluters towards those regions, using the analytical framework of the environmental Kuznets curve.

The study’s main findings are as follows. First, the provincial panel data proved the validity of the EK curve hypothesis in industrial emissions in China. Second, the regional latecomer’s advantage was verified in the case of waste water, while its disadvantage was identified in waste gas and solid waste. Third, as for nation-wide technological progress, the national latecomer’s advantage was identified in the case of waste water, sulfur dioxide, and soot. We speculate that the contrasting result on regional latecomer’s effects between waste water, waste gas, and solid waste comes from the difference in policy performances: the matured and well-designed water pollution control may have regional latecomers enjoying the spillover effects of nation-wide progress, while the premature and ineffective control of air and solid waste pollution may cause pollution leakage for regional latecomers. We also presume that nation-wide technological progress in waste and air pollution control may reflect the fact that China, as a developing country, is obtaining technological transfers from advanced countries.

Key words: regional environmental states in China, environmental Kuznets curve, regional latecomer's advantage, pollution heaven

JEL Classification Codes: Q53, Q56, R01
### 1. Introduction

China’s growth has significantly improved the country’s living standards, but has brought serious damage to its environment. China’s air and water, particularly in urban areas, are among the most polluted in the world. Ambient concentrations of most pollutants exceed international standards several times over, burdening China with vast human and economic costs. In addition, China’s sheer size, together with its speed of growth, means that its environmental problems spill over to the rest of the world, not only through cross-border pollution in the form of acid rain and dust storms but also in contributions to global warming and damage to the ozone layer. China’s prospects for controlling environmental damage is not, therefore, just a domestic issue; it must be a concern for the rest of the world as well.

Two forces are responsible for much of China’s environmental degradation. The first is China’s extreme dependence on coal. Today, coal satisfies more than 60 percent of China’s demand for energy, making China the world’s largest coal consumer. The second factor is China’s booming cities. Rising urbanization, accompanied by increased automobile use and largely untreated emissions of municipal waste, has increased the portion of the population exposed to the greater pollution found in urban areas.

The government has recognized the environmental challenges confronting the country, and over the past decade has established environmental authorities and introduced a comprehensive legal framework to protect the environment. It has also invested considerable resources in protecting its air and water. It is said that these efforts can claim some successes, but much remains to be done.

One crucial issue seems to be the problems of the implementation of the local level environmental protection. MacBean (2007) argues that “In spite of the mass of laws and policy tools in place in China and the widespread of environmental officials throughout the country it seems that compliance with regulations is poor. The main reason lies in the higher value placed on conventionally measures economic growth and job maintenance or expansion by other departments and local governments.” In fact, according to reports on the state of the environment in China by the State Environmental Protection Administration, the government of China, for both water and air quality, some percentage of monitoring sections of the seven major rivers and cities still remains at extremely polluted levels, although the percentage with higher grade standards rose, and the percentage with lower grade standards fell from 2001 to 2005. China’s environmental prospects, therefore, appear to depend highly on how each region addresses environmental problems.

The purpose of this study, with a focus on regional environmental states in China, is
to examine whether regional latecomers enjoy the spillover effects of nation-wide progress in environmental management and technology, or stay behind from environmental progress, or even suffer the “pollution heaven” effect through the relocation of polluters toward those regions. In short, this study intends to verify whether underdeveloped regions enjoy a so-called latecomer’s advantage or suffer its disadvantage in the area of environmental management and technology. The analytical framework of the Environmental Kuznets curve (EK curve) is used to arrive at a conclusion. We focus on the per capita emission of waste gas, waste water, and solid wastes as environmental indices of Chinese provinces. In the following sections, we will first review previous studies and clarify this article’s position (Section 2), present our own empirical study (Section 3), and end with some concluding remarks (Section 4).

### 2. Previous Studies, Our Position

The EK curve provides an analytical framework to examine how economies deal with environmental issues. The curve postulates an inverted-U relationship between pollution and economic development. At early stages of development, environmental quality deteriorates with increases in per capita income, while at higher levels of development, environmental degradation is seen to decrease with further increases in per capita income. Kuznets's name was apparently attached to the curve by Grossman and Krueger (1993), who noted its resemblance to Kuznets's inverted-U relationship between income inequality and development. Dasgupta et al. (2002) describe the process as conceived by the “conventional” explanations for the inverted-U relationship as follows: “In the first stage of industrialization, pollution … grows rapidly because people are more interested in jobs and income than in clean air and water, communities are too poor to pay for abatement, and environmental regulation is correspondingly weak. The balance shifts as income rises. Leading industrial sectors become cleaner, people value the environment more highly, and regulatory institutions become more effective. Along the curve, pollution per capita levels off in the middle-income range and then falls toward pre-industrial levels in wealthy societies.”

### 2.1 Empirical Testing of the EK Curve, Debates

The issue of the EK curve was first discussed in the World Bank’s 1992 World Development Report (World Bank, 1992). Since the World Bank’s report, there have been numerous empirical tests and theoretical debates on the EK curve. Empirical
evidence has been accumulating, supporting the validity of the EK curve for some regions and environmental problems. Grossman and Krueger (1995) found an EK-curve relationship between the per capita GDP and urban air quality (the concentration of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and sulfur dioxide $ \left(\mathrm{SO}_{2}\right) $ ), while Selden and Song (1994) discovered the existence of an EK-curve relationship for the aggregate emissions of SPA, $ SO_{2} $ , oxides of nitrogen and carbon monoxide. The theoretical works have also shown that an environmental Kuznets curve can result if a few plausible conditions are satisfied as income increases in a society. At the first stage, Grossman and Krueger (1991) argued that economic growth affects the quality of environment in three different channels of scale effects, technological effects, and composition effects. Lopez (1994) used a fairly general theoretical model to show that if producers pay the social marginal cost of pollution, then the relationship between emissions and income depends on the properties of technology and preferences. Stokey (1998) made a theoretical contribution to the explanation of the EK curve using dynamic growth models.

Since the mid 1990s, however, the EK curve has been attacked on empirical, methodological, and interpretative grounds. From an empirical aspect, Shafik (1994) presented more ambiguous results, seemingly implying that the EK curve may not hold at all times and for all pollutants. Furthermore, empirical research has been limited to the environmental problems for which data exist, such as the concentration of pollutants in urban areas. It has also methodologically been shown that the very existence of an EK curve is questionable; the EK curve may well arise as a “methodological artifact” (Nahman and Antrobus 2005). The methodological problem of cross-sectional approach will be discussed later. One of the most damaging criticisms of the EK curve that advocates caution in interpreting its causes and implications is based on the linkage between the EK curve and the international trading of industrial goods. Suri and Chapman (1998) and Rothman (1998), notably, argued that the EK curve might arise due to the relocation of “dirty” industries to developing countries as a country reaches higher levels of development. Nahman and Antrobus (2005) stated that the EK curve may thus be no more than a “historical artifact.”

### 2.2 Frontiers of EK-Curve Studies

Most of the empirical studies so far have concentrated on validating the EK curve hypothesis and its requirements, using cross-sectional data. This cross-sectional approach adopted by most studies might, as Borghesi (1999) argued, be misleading, since environmental degradation is generally increasing in developing countries and decreasing in industrialized ones; the EK curve within the cross-sectional framework
might reflect the mere juxtaposition of two opposite trends rather than describe the evolution of a single economy over time.

One of the frontiers of EK-curve studies, thus, is to examine the EK curves of specific countries using time-series data, to compare them in terms of the height and timing of their peaks, their shapes, etc., and to investigate the causes of different EK-curve patterns. De Bruyn et al. (1998), noticing that conventional cross-section estimation techniques have generated spurious estimates of the EK curve, estimated time series models individually in four countries (the Netherlands, the UK, the US, and then-West Germany) for three types of emissions $ \left(\mathrm{CO}_{2}, \mathrm{NO}_{x}, \mathrm{and} \mathrm{SO}_{2}\right) $ and showed that the time patterns of these emissions correlate positively with economic growth, and that emission reductions may have been achieved as a result of structural and technological changes in the economy. Irie et al. (2000) tested the empirical validity of the EK curves of individual countries for $ SO_{2} $ , using relevant time-series data from 30 developed countries (OECD countries and the former Soviet Union). The main findings were that 1) the EK curves were verified for $ SO_{2} $ emissions in 17 countries, 2) the EK curves varied in the shape of their trajectories and the height and timing of their peaks, and 3) the differences in height can be explained by five factors: the technology available in the country, the scale of the economy, the quality of the fuel used, the leading industries, and the political system.

This time-series approach has been developed, as Dasgupta et al. (2002) argued, to examine the hypothesis that developing societies, by utilizing progressive environmental management and the technologies of more advanced countries, might be able to experience an EK curve that is lower and flatter than what conventional wisdom would suggest; they might be able to develop their economies from low levels of per capita income with little degradation in environmental quality, and then at some point experience improvements in both income and environmental quality. Concerning environmental management, Panayotou (1997)—formulating a tentative equation for a sample of 30 developed and developing countries for 1982-1994—found that effective policies and institutions can significantly reduce environmental degradation at low income levels and speed up improvements at higher income levels, thereby lowering the EK curves, at least for ambient sulfur dioxide levels. Matsuoka et al. (2000) compared the EK curves of various Asian countries and explained the differences in their height by the dissemination of environmental monitoring systems in those countries. As for environmental technology, Martin and Wheeler (1992) argued that, because increased openness to trade tends to lower the price of cleaner imported technologies while increasing the competitive pressure to adopt them, firms in relatively open developing economies adopt cleaner technologies more quickly.
One counter-argument to this hypothesis of the latecomer’s advantage is the well-known “pollution heaven” hypothesis. For example, Dasgupta et al. (2002) argues that the relatively high environmental standards in high-income economies impose high costs on polluters, and shareholders pressure the firms to relocate to low-income countries, whose people are so eager to get jobs and income that their environmental regulations are weak or nonexistent. The scenario may not shift the latecomers’ EK curves downward; on the contrary, it may even lift them.

### 2.3 Application of the EK curve analyses to China, Our position

Although there has been a large body of literature on the EK curve studies for several countries and for several environmental quality indices as shown above, it is in recent times that the studies on the EK curve of China have increasingly appeared in the literature. Shen and Hashimoto (2004) investigated whether the EK curve hypothesis may exist on a country level by using the cross-province panel data of the seven pollutants of China, and found that the EK curve hypothesis is verified in five of these pollutants, while the other two reveal an N-shape relationship between pollutant emission and per capita income. Liu et al. (2007) showed that, by utilizing environmental monitoring data from Shenzhen on concentration of pollutants in ambient air, main rivers, and near-shore waters from 1989 to 2003, production-induced pollutants support EKC while consumption-induced pollutants do not. Shen (2006), by using Chinese provincial data from 1993 to 2002 to investigate the relationship between per capita income and per capita pollutant emission based on a simultaneous equation model, reported that an EKC relationship is found in COD, arsenic, and cadmium emissions, but SO $ _{2} $ shows a U-shaped curve and “dust fall” indicates no relationship. Song et al. (2008), the latest study in the literature, re-examined the relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth in China through a sophisticated method of a panel cointegration approach with Chinese provincial data over 1985-2005. They found that there is a long-run cointegrating relationship between the per capita emission of waste gas, waste water, and solid wastes and the per capita GDP; all three of these pollutants are inverse U-shaped.

All these studies discussed above stay at the stage of examining the validating the EK curve hypothesis and its requirements, but do not appear to step into the analysis of the shift of the EK curve. This article, with a focus on regional environmental states in China, tries to examine the shift of Chinese provincial EK curves and to verify the existence of the latecomer's advantage or disadvantage in underdeveloped provinces in the area of environmental management and technology. Our contribution to the EK
curve literature may consist in the sub-regional analysis within China in the context of the environmental latecomer’s effects. As regional environmental indices, the per capita emission of waste water, waste gas, and solid wastes in the provincial level will be examined in the following section.

### 3. Empirical Studies

We now turn to the empirical studies within the analytical framework of the environmental Kuznets curve. Our analysis consists of two steps. First, we will simply overview the relationships between per capita real GDP and environmental indices in Chinese provinces. We then move to a regression analysis using provincial panel data to examine the existence of the EK curve pattern and to see whether the latecomer's advantage or its disadvantage dominates in the environmental management of undeveloped Chinese provinces.

### 3.1 Data

In our empirical analysis, we collect data from 29 provinces in mainland China from 1988 to 2007. All provincial data are available in the China Statistical Yearbook. We select 29 of the 31 provinces under the administration of the central government: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. Chongqing and Tibet are excluded because Chongqing data have been separated from Sichuan data in 1996 or 1997 and Tibet data are not available in most years.

We use the provincial gross domestic product per capita (yuan) as the economic indicators, and the provincial industrial emissions per capita as the environmental indicators: waste water (ton), waste gas (cubic meter), and solid waste generated (ton). Industrial waste gas emissions per capita have three components: sulfur dioxide discharged (ton), soot discharged (ton), and dust discharged (ton). Considering that provincial GDP data included in the Yearbook are at current prices, they have to be converted into fixed prices. We adjusted all provincial GDP data by deflating the provincial Consumer Price Index in 2000. $ ^{1} $
### 3.2 Overview of the Time-series EK Curves in Sample Provinces

Figure 1 indicates the time-series relationships between per capita real GDP and environmental indices in main samples of Chinese provinces. It is in the case of waste water that the assembly of the provincial trajectories clearly creates inverted-U shape patterns. The locations of trajectories represent a clear contrast: the downward shifts from the higher income provinces to the lower income provinces are observed in the case of waste water, while upward shifts are seen in the cases of waste gas and solid waste. The GDP-emissions relationships described above may produce different implications among waste water, waste gas, and solid waste. This point will be statistically clarified through a panel estimation in the following section.

### 3.3 Regression Analysis Using Provincial Panel Data

We’ll now move to a regression analysis using provincial panel data to examine the existence of the EK curve pattern and to see whether the latecomer’s advantage or its disadvantage dominates in the environmental management of undeveloped Chinese provinces.

#### 3.3.1 Methodology

We will first clarify some methodological points related to our analysis. To study the relationship between pollution and growth, there are two possible approaches to model construction. One is to estimate a reduced-form equation that relates the level of pollution to the level of income. The other is to model the structural equations relating environmental regulations, technology, and industrial composition to GDP, and then to link the level of pollution to the regulations, technology, and industrial composition. We here take the reduced-form approach for the following reasons. First, the reduced-form estimates give us the net effect of a nation's income on pollution. If the structural equations were to be estimated first, one would need to solve backward to find the net effect. Moreover, confidence in the implied estimates would depend on the precision and potential biases of the estimates at every stage. Second, the reduced-form approach spares us from having to collect data on pollution regulations and the state of the existent technology, which are not always available. Although a reduced-form relationship gives no indication of the direction of causality—namely, whether growth affects the environment or the other way around—we think that the reduced-form