Silviase/jgov_v1.4_full_ann huggingface dataset:
## Chart I - 15 Outline of Medium-Term Targets (1st to 5th)

Period (Western calendar)	Main contents
1st Medium-term Target (formulated in July 1978)	1978-1980	Doubling the ODA disbursement of $1.42 billion of 1977 by 1980
2nd Medium-term Target (formulated in Jan. 1981)	1981-1985	Making the overall ODA disbursement for 1981-1985 double that of 1976-1980 (approx. $10.68 billion) or more
3rd Medium-term Target (formulated in Sept. 1985)	1986-1992*	Making the overall ODA disbursement for 1986-1992 $40 billion or more (to this end, making the ODA disbursement for 1992 double that of 1985 ($3.80 billion) or more)
4th Medium-term Target (formulated in June 1988)	1988-1992	Making the overall ODA disbursement for 1988-1992 double or more than that of 1983-1987, $50 billion or more
5th Medium-term Target (formulated in June 1993)	1993-1997	Making the overall ODA disbursement for 1993-1997 $70-75 billion

* Since it was decided in 1987 to bring forward the target term by two years and the target of doubling ODA was almost achieved in 1987 (disbursement of 7.45 billion dollars) due to factors such as the exchange rate, the 4th Medium-term Target was newly established in 1988.

finally completing payment to the Philippines, and then Japan's ODA entered a new era.

In the mid-1970s, Japan's ODA plateaued due to a worsening of financial conditions and other factors as a result of the oil crisis. However, in accordance with expansions in Japan's economic power and its balance of payments surplus, international expectations regarding Japan's ODA had risen. Meanwhile, on the end of reparations of the war etc., calls were growing also in Japan for the expansion of ODA and the promotion of economic cooperation truly from the standpoint of developing countries. $ ^{21} $ In order to respond to such domestic and overseas expectations, Japan announced in 1977 Fukuda Doctrine for doubling ODA in five years. However, based on factors such as subsequent appreciation of the yen, Japan formulated the First Medium-Term Target of ODA-aimed at doubling ODA in three years-in July 1978, which Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda announced at the Bonn Summit. Five medium-term targets such as this were subsequently formulated, becoming the driving force of the steady quantitative expansion of ODA. These were government-level declarations of intention toward international community about ODA quantity containing specific figures, which were not formulated by other advanced countries at that time. They had a systematic significance in the field of international cooperation, indicating the positive stance of Japan, which positioned ODA as an important pillar of international contribution.

In addition, to address the problem of accumulated debt of developing countries, which was one of the major issues for the world economy at that time, expansion of the circulation of funds to developing countries including financial cooperation other than ODA was also conducted. And in 1987, the Japanese government announced the Financial Recycling Scheme. $ ^{22} $ Through these measures, Japan's ODA achieved significant expansions from the end of the 1970s through the
1980s. Among DAC countries, Japan moved ahead of West Germany to third position in 1983 and ahead of France to second in 1986.

In addition to the Japanese assistance's quantitative expansion mentioned already, its quality had also improved in this period. Disaster Emergency Assistance, Cultural Grant Aid, and Grant Aid for Increase of Food Production started in 1973, 1975, and 1977, respectively, while in 1986, Structural Adjustment Loans (SAL) with the World Bank were started by the OECF. Evaluation of ODA was started in 1975, focusing on ex-post evaluation of individual projects, while publication environmental conservation and human rights protection came to be recognized. Particularly in the beginning of the 1980s, criticism increased that due consideration about problems was lacking in development programs advanced with the support of international organizations and developed countries, while various guidelines were formulated in the OECD-DAC regarding consideration for the environment in implementation of assistance. Subsequently, while promoting to consider adequately the environment on the developing country side, the OECF formulated the Guidelines for the Consideration of the Environment in October 1989 with the objective of inves-

of the Annual Evaluation Report on Japan's Economic Cooperation began from 1982.

In providing information to the public regarding ODA, the first issue of Japan's Official Development Assistance, the predecessor of the present ODA White Paper, was published in 1984, and it has been published annually since that year.

Regarding improvement in the quality of assistance, the distortions of cultivation of an overemphasis on economic development became evident in many developing countries aiming to break away from underdevelopment and poverty, while the challenges regarding both

Project in the Middle East region in the 1980s

(Second Bosphorus Bridge: Turkey)

Chart 1-16 Trends in Japan's Bilateral ODA by Region

Notes: (1) ODA to Europe since 1990 includes that to Eastern Europe.

(2) Figures are negative when amount to be disbursed in loans exceeds amount of repayment.
the stabilization of macro-economies over the long term and to make this sustainable. Acknowledging such a situation, the World Bank, which had originally been a financing institution for development projects, decided in 1979 to start non project-type SALs as a new form of medium to long term development assistance including improvement of the economic structure of developing countries. Based on the recognition that economic efficiency should be promoted through small government and the power of free markets, SALs provide capital to developing countries fallen into a debt crisis, on condition that they tackle the economic structural problems that form the background to the debt problems, fiscal deficits, difficulties in international balance of payment etc. facing them (conditionality).

World Bank SALs, for which the provision of credit by the IMF was positioned as a condition, advanced structural adjustment in an integrated manner between the IMF and the World Bank. The World Bank established a special fund in 1985 targeting the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, for which the burden of debt repayment is particularly heavy and the economic structure particularly weak, appealing to advanced countries for concerted lending. In response to this appeal, Japan first provided SALs from the OECF as concerting lending with the World Bank in 1986. Furthermore, since then, Japan has also collaborated with the ADB, the Inter-American Development Bank(IDB), and the African Development Bank (AfDB). By doing so, at the end of 2003, Japan had provided 78 cases of Yen loans in total amounting to 967.6 billion yen.

However, compared to international development theory of that time, which favored small governments, Japan's development philosophy was different in that it placed more importance on the role of the government in development. Through an OECF paper $ ^{24} $ of 1990, Japan declared to the international community its unique policy, based on the experience of the economic development of East Asia. Subsequently, as it became clear that World Bank SALs could not yield the desired effect, the philosophy of the international community including the World Bank, shifted its focus to institutions such as governments (governance etc.). Amid such changes, the philosophy of Japan, consistently placing emphasis on the role

The first GGP, Constructing Project for Shanxi-Sheng Jingbian-Xian Donghang-Chuzhong Junior High School FY1996: China. Top: Old school building Bottom: New school building
Note: Grassroots/Human Security Grant Aid started from 1989 as SSGA, and became GGP in FY1995. In FY2003, it became Grassroots/Human Security Grant Aid.

of governments, had a steady influence in the international community.

Becoming top donor by total amount among DAC members

Based on repeated medium-term targets, Japan strived to expand its ODA. Consequently, in 1989, the amount of expenditure on ODA came to 8.97 billion dollars, as Japan moved ahead of the United States for the first time to become the world's top provider of assistance. In the 1990s, Western countries also had "aid fatigue" after the end of the Cold War, and the ODA amount of the entire world showed a trend of reduction. $ ^{25} $ However, Japan steadily increased its ODA budget even from 1989, while in the 10 years from 1991 to 2000, it provided approximately 20% of the total amount of ODA supplied by DAC members, becoming literally the world's top donor.

The Japanese amount of ODA reached an historical high level in 1995-14.489 billion dollars on a net disbursement basis. ODA budget in the general account also increased every fiscal year compared to the previous year until 1997.

Start of grassroots assistance

Along with the diversification of demand for aid in developing countries, it was required to extend assistance that is small in scale and mobile. As a result, grassroots assistance started in the second half of the 1980s. The Small Scale Grant Assistance (SSGA) scheme, targeting non-governmental bodies (Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO), local public authorities, schools, hospitals etc.) that carry out grassroots-level development projects, and the NGO Project Subsidy scheme, for development cooperation activities conducted in developing countries mainly by Japanese NGOs that assisted with part of project costs, were established in 1989. SSGAs made it possible to implement small-scale tasks that had been difficult to address in the past. It earned high praise from various directions as fine-tuned assistance that gives direct benefit at grassroots level. Meanwhile, the time required for the approval of items is reduced to the minimum by prompt and accurate responses by Japan's foreign diplomatic missions, which have a thorough knowledge of various local circumstances. Every year, SSGAs has expanded in scale. In fiscal year 1995, it was renamed Grant Assistance for Grassroots Projects (GGP). In fiscal year 2003, it was expanded to Grassroots/Human Security Grant Aid, in order to reflect more strongly the philosophy of human security.
such efforts, interest in African issues has risen significantly in the international community.

Regarding the development of the Mekong region, international interests increased after the stabilization of conditions in the Indochina region in the early 1990s. And from the very beginning of this trend, Japan provided active support to the region. Concretely, Japan promotes the construction of the "East-West Economic Corridor," a road crossing this area, and the "Second East-West Corridor," a road linking Bangkok, Phnom Penh and Ho Chi Minh City, through economic cooperation. Japan has also led international efforts, for example, by proposing the establishment of the "Forum for Comprehensive Development of Indochina" in 1993, while actively promoting collaboration with the ADB and other international organizations that implement a program for the development of the entire Mekong region (Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) program). Even now, Japan continues to strengthen its cooperation. For example, Japan announced a new initiative for development of the Mekong region at the ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit Meeting in December 2003.

Japan also enhanced country-specific assistance policies. In addition to conventional scheme-specific annual consultation, Japan started dispatching the comprehensive Study Mission for Economic Cooperation to major recipient countries $ ^{27} $ and had policy dialogues with them. And Japan has come to reveal medium and long-term country assistance policies for the various countries in the Annual Report $ ^{28} $ since fiscal year 1993. Subsequently, Japan has come to formulate country-specific assistance programs, which are more specific than country-specific assistance policies, in response to the agreement at the Board Meeting of the Council of Overseas Economic Cooperation-Related Ministers in 1998, which will be mentioned later.

When implementing assistance to each country, Japan has made political responses according to the principles of the ODA Charter, which correspond to the Four Key Principles for implementing ODA. Concretely, while actively promoting

The Mekong Bridge at present

Construction currently underway on the Second Mekong Bridge (scheduled to be completed in 2006)

favorable movements in relation to the Principles through assistance, if there are any such movements, and, conversely, if there are unfavorable movements in relation to the principles, Japan has firstly made diplomatic efforts, for example, requesting the recipient country to redress the situation, and then taken action as reviewing assistance to the relevant country through comprehensive judgment of the situation (more specifically, taking appropriate measures on a timely basis, including suspension of assistance). Let us cite some specific examples. Japan has urged Cambodia, which has been working on the democratization and the restoration and reconstruction of its devastated country since achievement of peace in 1991, to make diligent efforts for
## (IDGs)

## 1 )

Reduce the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by half between 1990 and 2015.

Enroll all children in primary school by 2015.

## 3 )

Make progress towards gender equality and empowering women by eliminating gender disparities in primary and secondary education by 2005.

## 4 )

Reduce infant and child mortality rates by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015.

## 5 )

Reduce maternal mortality ratios by three-quarters between 1990 and 2015.

Provide access for all who need reproductive health services by 2015.

Implement national strategies for sustainable development by 2005 so as to reverse the loss of environmental resources by 2015.

## (MDGs)

Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger. (Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1 a day and those who suffer from hunger.)

## 2 )

Achieve universal primary education. (Ensure that, by 2015, all boys and girls complete primary school.)

Promote gender equality and empower women. (Eliminate gender disparities in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005 and at all levels by 2015.)

## 4 )

Reduce child mortality. (Reduce by two-thirds, by 2015, the under-five mortality ratio)

## 5 )

Improve maternal health. (Reduce by three-quarters, by 2015, the maternal mortality ratio)

Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases. (Halt and begin to reverse by 2015 the spread of HIV/AIDS and the incidence of malaria and other major diseases.)

## 7 )

Ensure environmental sustainability. (Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources. Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water. Achieve, by 2020, significant improvements in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers.)

## 8 )

Develop a global partnership for development. (Develop an open trading and financial system. Address the needs of LDCs, landlocked and small island developing states. Deal with developing countries' debt problems, develop work for youth, provide access to drugs in developing countries, and make available the benefits of new technologies.
out such ideas as emphasis on ownership of developing countries and partnership, assistance that matches the actual conditions of each country, emphasis on cooperation and division of roles among the organizations and the private sector, human-centered development and active endeavor to increase the "visibility of Japanese aid." It also indicated that Japan would place greater emphasis on poverty alleviation programs and social development, and "soft" types of aid including human resources development, policy-related assistance. The Medium-Term Policy on ODA did not set any quantitative goals in consideration of severe financial circumstances.

## Promotion of ODA Reforms

Japan has made efforts to improve the efficiency and quality of assistance by promoting ODA reforms following the formulation of the Medium-Term Policy on ODA. To implement assistance effectively, it is indispensable to provide assistance after grasping sufficiently the economic/social conditions and development issues of each developing country. From this viewpoint, Japan started in 1998 formulating Country Assistance Policies, more specific than country assistance plans in the past, describing the objectives and the priority sectors of assistance over a period of about five years, for major recipient countries. Japan's ODA is now implemented under the ODA Charter, in line with the Medium-Term Policy on ODA and Country Assistance Policies.

Around the same time, administrative reforms at the central government ministry and agency level were also promoted. In June 1998, the Basic Law on the Administrative Reform of the Central Government was enacted, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs came to serve as the core of integrated coordination of the entire government regarding the overall plan for ODA. Collaboration among ministries and agencies was also promoted. In addition, efforts for reforms were also made at the implementing agency level. The Export-Import Bank of Japan and the Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund (OECF) were integrated in October 1999, becoming the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), an agency that implements both types of foreign financial aid-Japan's Yen loans and Other Official Flows (OOF)-in an integrated way.

The Final Report of the Second Council on ODA Reform at the end of March 2002 presented proposals consolidated into three key terms-"public participation," "ensuring transparency" and "enhancing efficiency." In response to this report, the "Board on Comprehensive ODA Strategy" $ ^{*1} $ was launched in June of the same year. Then in
統計 2 - 28 売春事犯被疑者の職業別検挙人員の推移(平成13～17年)

次区分	13	14	15	16	17
総数(人)	1,539	1,742	1,669	1,452	1,480
無職(街娼、ポン引き等)	802	862	762	635	586
個室付浴場業者	14	32	20	43	43
旅館業者	4	8	6	12	5
料理店等接客業者	141	169	148	150	240
タクシー運転者等	29	26	11	7	2
その他	549	645	722	605	604
統計 3 - 13 男女別、種類別運転免許保有者数 (平成19年)

男女別
種類別	総数	男	女
総数(人)	79,907,212	45,412,614	34,494,598
第一種免許	大型	5,523,190	5,380,893	142,297
中型	75,632,238	43,021,427	32,610,811
普通	705,387	376,774	328,613
大型特殊	2,402,921	2,342,743	60,178
牽引	1,115,034	1,095,340	19,694
大型二輪	12,195,811	11,322,237	873,574
普通二輪	8,454,617	7,372,999	1,081,618
小型特殊	656,664	458,487	198,177
原付	17,365,524	10,506,830	6,858,694
第二種免許	大型	1,122,994	1,111,828	11,166
中型	1,234,075	1,194,940	39,135
普通	156,965	155,790	1,175
大型特殊	48,030	47,556	474
牽引	54,005	53,504	501

注:2種類以上の運転免許の保有者は、保有するすべての運転免許の欄に計上している。
# 平成25年度 暫定予算案概要

平 成 25 年 3 月

復興庁
平成25年度東日本大震災復興特別会計 暫定予算案総表

(单位: 億円)

区分	平成25年度概算決定額	うち暫定予算計上額
復興庁(1～6の合計)	29,037	4,098
1.被災者支援	1,883	106
2.まちの復旧・復興	16,670	3,317
3.産業の振興・雇用の確保	3,075	76
4.原子力災害からの復興再生	7,264	580
5.東日本大震災復興推進調整費	100	14
6.復興庁一般行政経費等	45	5
7.震災復興特別交付税	6,053	-
8.復興加速化・福島再生予備費	6,000	840
9.国債整理基金特会への繰入	662	62
10.全国防災事業	1,274	-
11.その他	815	2
復興特会合計	43,840	5,002

注1: 計数整理の結果、異動を生じることがある。

注2: 計数は、四捨五入のため、端数においては合計と一致しないものがある。
# 平成25年度復興佇暫定予算案の概要

## （1） 被災者支援

106億円

(主な事業)

○ 災害救助法による災害救助 74億円

応急仮設住宅の延長などに伴う継続的な経費を計上。

○ 被災した学生への修学支援 18億円

被災した学生に対する授業料の減免や奨学金の貸与に係る経費のうち、暫定期間内に執行が見込まれるもの。

## （２）まちの復旧・復興 ３,３１７億円

(主な事業)

○ 災害復旧事業 2,213億円

被災した施設の災害復旧に係る経費のうち、暫定期間内に執行が見込まれるもの。

☐ 復興道路 554億円

復興道路・復興支援道路の整備等に係る経費のうち、暫定期間内に執行が見込まれるもの。

○ 社会資本整備総合交付金（復興） 175億円

社会資本総合整備計画（復興）に基づき実施する事業に係る経費のうち、暫定期間内に執行が見込まれるもの。

## （３）産業の振興・雇用の確保

(主な事業)

☐ 中小企業組合等共同施設等災害復旧事業 49億円

被災した中小企業者の施設の災害復旧に係る経費のうち、暫定期間内に再交付決定等が見込まれるもの。

## （４）原子力災害からの復興・再生 580億円

(主な事業)

○ 放射性物質により汚染された土壌等の除染 411億円

放射性物質污染廃棄物処理事業 93億円

継続的に実施しなければならない除染事業等に係る経費のうち、暫定期間内に執行が見込まれるもの。

○ 子ども元気復活交付金(福島定住等緊急支援交付金) 30億円

子どもの運動機会の確保のための施設整備等に係る経費のうち、暫定期間中に執行が見込まれるもの。
## 2 景気後退と所得格差

ここでは、先ほどの所得格差の現状の議論を受け、景気循環が格差に与える影響について見よう。その際、失業による所得喪失は重大な格差拡大要因となると予想されるので、この点についてやや詳しく分析する。

## (1) 景気循環と家計の所得格差の変動

最初に、家計の所得格差が景気循環局面ごとにどのような動きをしてきたかを検証する。毎年のデータが必要なため、「家計調査」に基づく分析が中心となる。

## 過去2回の景気循環では所得格差も循環的に変動

総務省「家計調査」を用い、等価所得 $ ^{14} $ （二人以上の世帯のうち勤労者世帯、経常収入）で測った五分位別の平均値の比がどのようになっているか見てみよう。ここでは、最も所得の高い上位20％の層を第Ⅴ五分位、そこから順に中間層を第Ⅲ五分位、最も所得の少ない下位20％の層を第Ⅰ五分位としている。その上で、それぞれの平均的な所得につき、高所得者層と中間層である第Ⅴ五分位と第Ⅲ五分位の比、中間層と低所得者層である第Ⅲ五分位と第Ⅰ五分位の比をとっている。その結果、90年代後半以降に着目すると、次のような特徴が分かる（第3－2－6図）。

第一に、90年代後半以降は、いずれの系列も上昇トレンドにあり、格差が拡大傾向であったことを示している。この上昇トレンド自体は、前述のように、景気とは関係のない人口動態要因等により生じていると考えられる。そこで、景気循環局面との関係を見るには、この傾きの変化に着目する必要がある。

第二に、第Ⅴ分位と第Ⅲ分位の所得比は、94～97年の景気拡張局面、99～2000年の拡張局局面、2002～2007年の拡張局面のいずれにおいても、後半に傾きが急になっている。これは、拡張局面の後半に企業収益が十分に増加した段階で、高所得層の収入増が加速する傾向を反映している可能性がある $ ^{15} $ 。

第三に、第Ⅲ分位と第Ⅰ分位の所得比では、はっきりとした傾きの変化は見られず、94～97年、99年～2000年の拡張局面において、むしろ所得比が低下する局面が優勢であった。これは、景気回復に伴って低所得層の稼得機会が好転したことを反映している可能性がある。
第3－2－6図 五分位別の家計所得（等価所得）の推移と景気変動

景気後退は格差の拡大を増幅させる傾向

（備考）1．総務省「家計調査」により作成。二人以上の世帯のうち勤労者世帯経常収入の平均値。年間収入五分位別。

2．所得に応じて世帯を5等分し、下位20％を第Ⅰ五分位、上位20％を第Ⅴ五分位などとしている。「第Ⅴ五分位／第Ⅲ五分位」は、それぞれの分位に属する世帯の平均収入の比を表す。

3．世帯人員調整は、世帯人員数の平方根で割っている。

４．季節調整は、X-12-ARIMA による。

5．HPフィルターにより推計されたトレンド成分。

6．シャドーは景気後退期。ただし、直近のシャドーは、2009年3月まで。

## 2002 ～2007年の景気拡張局面での低所得者層の所得の立ち上がりは遅延

このように、最近は景気局面に対応した所得格差の循環がある程度観察できる。ただし、2002～2007年の拡張局面については、その前の拡張局面と違い、第Ⅲ分位と第Ⅰ分位の所得比は前半は上昇し、後半は横ばいとなった。その事情をやや詳しく調べてみよう（第3－2－7図）。

2002年から5年にわたって続いた景気回復の特徴は、賃金の上昇が伸び悩んだことである。実際、各所得分位の等価所得（総世帯のうち勤労者世帯、経常収入）の動きを見ると、拡張局面入り後も2006年の前後までは減少を続けており、その後、ようやく増加に転じた。ただし、その程度やタイミングについては、所得階層ごとに差が見られる。特に低所得層に位置する第I、第Ⅱ分位は落ち込み方も大きく所得の回復も緩やかであったことが分かる。最も低所得である第I分位では、回復も随分遅れ、回復のピークに達する前に景気の局面は山（2007年10月）を過ぎてしまった。

景気が回復すると、まず上位所得層で所得増加が生じ、それが次第に下位にも波及してくるという仮説がある。いわゆるトリクルダウン現象である。しかし、2002年からの拡張局面では、こうした現象は生じず、低所得層にとってはとりわけ「実感できない」景気回復であったといえよう。
第3－2－7図 直近の景気拡張局面における家計所得（等価所得）の五分位別推移

世帯人員で調整をすると、第Ⅰ、第Ⅱ五分位は景気の谷の後も、所得が低下

（備考）1．総務省「家計調査」により作成。総世帯のうち勤労者世帯経常収入の平均値の4四半期計。年間収入五分位別。

2．所得に応じて世帯を5等分し、下位20％を第Ⅰ五分位、上位20％を第Ⅴ五分位などとしている。

3．世帯人員調整は、世帯人員の平方根で割っている。

## (2) 失業と賃金格差

以上の分析は「家計調査」によったもので、勤労者世帯であることから世帯主が失業者のサンプルは含まれていない。したがって、失業に伴う所得格差の拡大が過小評価されている。ここでは、失業が所得格差にどの程度影響するかを考えよう。

## ● 相対的貧困率は失業率の動きに影響を受ける可能性

失業によって先鋭に生ずる問題が「貧困」である。ここでは、国際比較でしばしば用いられる概念である「相対的貧困率」を計測してみよう。相対的貧困とは、全世帯の所得の中央値の一定割合の水準の所得を得られない層を貧困層と定義づけるものであり、具体的には、ここでは中央値の40％の所得を得られない家計を貧困層とする。生存に必要な最低限の生活水準を維持する所得を前提とし、その所得を下回ることを貧困と定義する「絶対的貧困」の概念と対をなしている。

データとしては、失業者をある程度カバーしていると見られる「国民生活基礎調査」の年間所得金額の等価所得を用いる。その結果を失業率と並べて見ると、以下のような点に気づく(第3－2－8図)。

第一に、貧困率はすう勢的に上昇している。集計データに基づいて簡易な計算をしたため、毎年の振れはあるが、基調は明らかに上向いている。これは、ジニ係数の場合と同じである。所得に着目したものであるがゆえに、高齢化の進展等によって相対的に所得の低い層が増加し、このような上昇トレンドを生んだものと考えられる。
第3−2−8図 相対的貧困率（等価所得）と失業率の推移

相対的貧困率と失業率の間に一定の関係

（備考）1．厚生労働省「国民生活基礎調査」を内閣府にて推計。総務省「労働力調査」により作成。

2．貧困率は、世帯人員数の平方根で調整した等価所得を各個人の所得水準とし、基準値（中央値の40%）より低い所得水準にある個人の割合として算出する。

3．国民生活基礎調査による貧困率は、世帯人員別に等価所得の分布を推計して求めた。各所得階級の世帯所得は一様に分布しているとして、年間所得金額の分布を推計している。所得の定義については、第3－2－3図の備考を参照。

4．シャドーは景気後退期。ただし、直近のシャドーは、2009年3月まで。

第二に、失業率の動きと同様の動きを示す局面がある。90年代後半から2002年頃まで失業率は急上昇しているが、貧困率もこの時期の上昇テンポは急激である。一方、バブル期や2003年以降は失業率が低下していた。貧困率は、これらの時期は比較的落ち着いた動きをしている。

概括的な観察ではあるが、失業率と相対的貧困率との一定の関係が推測される結果であるといえよう。

## ● 失業を加味した賃金格差は2002年から2007年にかけて縮小

では、失業率の上昇は所得格差にどの程度影響するのだろうか。こうした効果を直接捉えることは難しいため、賃金格差のデータをもとに、失業を加味した格差を推計することでこの問題にアプローチしよう。

最初に、5年ごとにデータのある「就業構造基本調査」に基づく労働所得の格差を考える。これは、すでに見たように、87年以降、緩やかな上昇を示している。特に、97～2002年は急激に上昇し、その後2007年にかけて再び上昇テンポが緩やかになった。この賃金データに失業者の労働所得をゼロとして加え、ジニ係数を計算しよう。この方法では、労働所得ゼロの者が加わることで、必ずジニ係数の水準は上昇する。問題は、その程度とジニ係数の時系列的な変化への影響である（第3－2－9図（1））。

結果を見ると、失業者を含むジニ係数は97～2002年には失業者を含まないジニ係数よりさ
第3－2－9図 失業を加味した賃金格差の推移

失業率が改善したため、格差が縮小

6. 一般雇用者の MLD の要因分解では、正規及びそれ以外の2つのグループに分割。失業者を考慮した MLD の要因分解では、1年以上の長期失業者を3つめのグループとして計上した場合。

らに急激な上昇を示している。これは、この時期に失業率が大幅に高まったことに対応している。一方、2002～2007年の景気拡張局面では、雇用者だけのジニ係数とは反対に低下している。このことから、失業者を加味して格差を考えると、景気回復に伴う失業率の低下が格差を縮小させたとの見方も可能である。

次に、MLDに基づいて格差の変動への失業の寄与を調べよう（第3－2－9図（2））。ここでは、1年以上の長期失業を考慮し、正規雇用者、非正規雇用者、長期失業者という3グループを考え、グループ内、グループ間及び動態効果（グループ間移動に伴う効果）に寄与度分解を行う。これによると、正規・非正規の2グループへの分解時には格差拡大方向に効いていた動態効果が、失業者を考慮すると符号が逆転し、格差が縮小する方向に働くようになっている。そうして、この効果が全体の格差を縮小させた主因となっていることが分かる。これは、長期失業していた者が就職に成功し、所得を得るようになったことで、グループ間の移動が生じて格差の縮小につながったことを意味する。

## 失業の増加は中長期な賃金格差にも影響する可能性

失業はこれまで検討してきたような短期的な賃金格差のみならず、中長期的な賃金格差にも悪影響を及ぼす可能性がある。これは、失業が長期にわたる場合、それによって人的資本（企