The result of calculations, called as ecological footprint regarding the degree of load imposed on the environment by the socio-economic activities such as supply of food and timbers, and energy consumption indicates that the socio-economic activities of the entire world including Japan had already exceeded the global environmental capacity, that is the sustainable level, in 1970.

The future environmental problems in the OECD countries in 2020 that were forecast by the OECD indicate stagnation or further deterioration in many areas such as use of water resources, emission of harmful wastes, agricultural pollution, and emission of greenhouse gases. Thus, the OECD countries commonly recognize the urgency of environmental constraints.

## 2 ) Avoiding

## environmental constraints

To avoid such situations, further efforts for environmental measures are inevitable.

As discussed in Chapter 1, through the severe pollution experiences and two oil crises, Japan has rapidly enhanced energy productivity and resource productivity and enhanced eco-efficiency. It is possible to promote environmental measures further.

## I nfluence of global warming that is predicted in Japan

## Temperature change

## Water resources

• Increase of the possibility of floods as a result of temperature rise by $ 3^{\circ} $ C

• Increase/decrease of river flow

## Health

• Increase of the pneumonia contractio rate and the death rate of the aged due to heat waves that are caused by the rise of the maximum temperature

• Increase of risk of infection of malaria and Dengue fever

## Economy and energy

• Sales of Summer products increased by 5% due to the temperature rise by 1°C in Summer; increase of 5 million kW (for 16 million households) for the demand for cooling

• Influence on hydraulic power generation due to changes in the amount of rainfall and snowfall

• Deterioration of output of thermal power and nuclear power generation

• Advancement of pollution inner bays such as Tokyo Bay

• 80% or more of sandy shores are eroded due to the rise of sea level by 65cm

• Requires about 11 trillion yen for the cost of countermeasures such as increasing the height of embankments

• Rise of underground water level or salinification of underground water

## Natural eco-system

• The subtropical vegetation will disappear from the South of the Ishikari basal zone after 50 years.

• Reduction of distributional area of creeping pine and snow grouse and transformation of beech forest to oak forest

• Difficulty of retention of genetic pools due to extinction of specific plant communities such as from mountains and small islands

Agricultural and forestry

• Decrease of rice production as a whole

• Decrease of forestry production excluding cases where the amount of rainfall increases

• Expansion of hibernation range of inspect pests and faster change of generations

## Ocean

• Breeding of tropical and subtropical plankton types

• Reduction of sea ice area and deterioration of production capability of seaweed under sea ice in Sea of Okhotsk

Presentation: "Influence of Global Warming in Japan 2001" by Ministry of the Environment (2001)

Transition of world ecological footprint

Ecological footprint: The following items are converted to the common unit called "area unit"; area unit indicates how much load the socio-economic activities impose on the global environment and the total area unit has increased by about 50% (about 1.5% annually) since 1970, reaching 16,4 billion area units in 1996. (1) Cropland required for food production (2) Grazing Land required for production of meat and diary products (3) Forest required for manufacturing of paper and timbers (4) Fishing ground required for marine products (5) Forests required for absorption of carbon dioxide that is emitted as a result of energy consumption (6) Land required for housing and infrastructure

The global ecospace in 1996 accounts for 12,600 million area units (ecospace accounts for 11,3 billion area units when 10% of the environment is allocated for other organisms). The world ecological footprint exceeded the ecospace in the 1970's and currently exceeds it by about 30% (about 45%).

Source: "Living Planet Report 2000" (2000) by WWF