## 2 An Overview of Global Trends

## (1) Population and urbanization: population increases and the concentration on cities

Human production and consumption activities are burdening the environment through extraction of resources and discharges of greenhouse gases and waste. Generally, it is thought that production and consumption activities increase in tandem with an increase in population and their impact on the environment increase accordingly. Thus, a survey of population trends in each region provides clues to estimate which regions are going to see greater impacts on the environment going forward.

According to State of World Population 2009 released by the United Nations Population Fund, the world population stood at some 6.8 billion in 2009. The World Population Prospects 2008 indicates that the world population is expected to reach 7.0 billion in 2011 and top 9.0 billion in 2050 (Figure Int.-2-1). The regional breakdown of the world population shows that Asia accounts for a larger percentage of the population than other regions, with South-Central Asia that includes India and Eastern Asia inclusive of China account for particularly large percentages (Figure Int.-2-2).

The population trends of the two regions mentioned above show major differences in population growth rates. While the population of South-Central Asia is likely to continue to grow substantially in years to come, the population in Eastern Asia is forecast to start declining from around 2030 (Figure Int.-2-2). This raises concerns about increased burdens on the environment in Asia at large, and such concerns are likely to persist longer particularly in South-Central Asia.

Looking at regions other than Asia, it is clear that

Figure Int.-2-1 Population Trends in the World and Regions

Source: Prepared by the Ministry of the Environment based on U.N. Population Division, "World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision"

Africa has the distinctly high growth rate of population (Figure Int.-2-3). Africa has a large increase of a little over 1.6% in the average annual population growth rate between 2010 and 2050. On the other hand, the population growth rate in Europe is set to see a decline of about 0.15%.

Meanwhile, Japan’s total population is forecast to stay on the consistent downtrend going forward. The Japanese population is likely to accelerate its pace of decline year after year from the 2005 peak of some 127.77 million, with the total population breaking below the 100 million mark by 2050 (Figure Int.-2-4). In terms of an increase or decrease in population, the expected decline in Japan’s total population is likely, in a sense, to have the effect of mitigating the environmental load. However, the impact of population trends on the environment needs to be captured from various aspects, including production and consumption patterns, industrial structures, and changes in life patterns and standards of living stemming from the ongoing fall in birthrate and the aging population.

Source: Prepared by the Ministry of the Environment based on U.N. Population Division, "World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision"

Source: Prepared by the Ministry of the Environment based on U.N. Population Division, "World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision"