while Europe and Oceania are seen to expand their net export volumes (Figure Int.-2-11). North America, meanwhile, is likely to see a decline in net export volumes between 1995 and 2019, but will remain as the world's major net grain exporting region. Reflecting the growing uneven distribution of food producing and exporting countries amid globalization, any change in the supply and demand situation could have no small impact on international prices, giving rise to concerns that price rises can be amplified easily by anxiety-driven export restrictions or an inflow of speculative money into grain markets.

Next, Japan’s food self-sufficiency rate has been on the decline over the past several decades. The self-sufficiency rate in food on a calorie basis has dropped from 78% in FY1961 to around 40% in recent years, presumably influenced by the shift in dietary habits from Japanese to Western-style food (Figure Int.-2-12). Meanwhile, in contrast to the case of Japan, the United Kingdom has raised its food self-sufficiency. While food self-sufficiency rate of UK has been dropping in recent years, it had risen from 42% in 1961 to 70% in 1993. Relatively high self-sufficiency of UK in

Note: Net export and import volumes do not include intra-regional trade volumes.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, "World Food Supply and Demand Projections to 2019 - World Food Supply and Demand Model projection Results"

food is described as reflecting that land in the country is flat to make efficient agricultural production possible and that production of wheat and some other crops has increased thanks to farm subsidies it is getting through accession to the European Community (EC).

The sharp rises in grain prices from 2007 to 2008 are said to have stemmed from increased demand for grains in developing countries, expanding demand for grains as materials for bio fuels, the dwindled supply due to drought and higher speculative demand as well as grain export bans or restrictions imposed by major exporters including China and Russia after price increases in international markets. As seen above, once the supply-demand tightens, it is possible for grain-exporting countries to go for “enclosure” of cereal crops. Thus, it is necessary for Japan, which depends on foreign suppliers for 60% of food, to proactively seek to raise the food self-sufficiency rate, by basically increasing domestic production and under the national policy of combining domestic supply with imports and stockpiles appropriately. In addition, some 19 million tons of food are being discarded each year, an amount that is about six times the food aid of 3.3 million tons provided by the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) in 2007.

## B: Supply and demand trends of seafood

With the increase in per-capita demand combining with the population growth, global demand for seafood doubled from 56.28 million tons in 1970 to 126.00 million tons in 2003, and in particular, China's demand shot up 11.7 times from 4.05 million tons to 47.56 million tons during the same period. Also, global per-capital demand for fish and shellfish for food grew 1.5 times from 11.1 kg in 1970 to 16.1 kg in 2003. By major country and region, per-capita demand grew 1.4 times in the United States, 1.3 times in the European Union (EU) and 5.7 times in China.

Going forward, global demand for seafood is expected to increase with the growth of population and rising income. Particularly in China, where fish and shellfish are regarded as more luxurious than beef and other meat, demand for seafood is likely to increase in tandem with higher income. Together with this, the

Figure Int.-2-12 Trends in the Calorie-Based Food Self-Sufficiency Rate of Japan and United Kingdom (1961-2003)

Source: Prepared by the Ministry of the Environment based on the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, "Food Supply-Demand Table (FY2007)"