before the Industrial Revolution,” and “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” – the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report could almost confirm scientifically that global warming is advancing and that it is caused by human activities. Figure 1-2-1 shows that natural causes such as solar activities and volcanoes alone are not enough to scientifically explain the rise in world temperatures that has taken place so far.

Among the simulations compiled by the IPCC to predict future climate change, even the most optimistic scenario (B1: a society that can balance environmental protection and economic development on a global scale) says it is inevitable that the average global temperature at the end of this century (2090~2099) will rise approximately $ 1.8^{\circ} $ C ( $ 1.1-2.9^{\circ} $ C) from the average seen at the end of the $ 20^{th} $ century (1980-1999) (Figure 1-2-2) because the GHGs emitted in the past will not stabilize immediately and will remain in the atmosphere. The IPCC pointed out that mitigation measures alone, such as reducing GHG emissions, would not be able to avert the risk of climate change. Adaptation measures must also be taken to help alleviate the negative impacts of climate change, including the construction of protective walls against high tides, adjusting the sowing time for agricultural production, and appropriate water management such as efficient use of water.

The Fourth Assessment Report pointed out clearly the imminent risks of global warming. In order to avert the risks that might bring irreversible consequences, the world as a whole must take immediate, concrete, and effective measures based on a precautionary approach. Humankind is called to action, now!

Figure 1-2-2 Projections of Global Warming

Note: The Emission Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)

A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil-intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T) or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies).

A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines.

B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

An illustrative scenario was chosen for each of the six scenario groups A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 and B2. All should be considered equally sound.

The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, which means that no scenarios are included that explicitly assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or the emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol.

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

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## Stop! Global Warming Children's Message Relay

Team Minus 6% is exhibiting panels related to the impact of global warming and hosting the “Stop! Global Warming Children’s Message Relay” events that invite children to write messages about preventing global warming, at the environmental event forums and facilities held for children throughout Japan from February 2008 up until the beginning of July, just before the start of the G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit. At these events, a “Red Globe,” representing the earth with progressing global warming, is set up and is made to turn blue by attaching blue seals as messages (declarations) increase. As of May 7, 2008, there are messages from 4,086 children. The atmosphere of the Message Relay Campaign at each location can be seen on the Team Minus 6% website.

Children attaching blue seals on the “Red Globe” (Photo: Ministry of the Environment)