Table2-1-1 Examples of Projected Impacts by Region

Africa	· By 2020, between 75 and 250 million of people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.
· In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020. Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries is projected to be severely compromised. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition.
· Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
· By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected under a range of climate scenario.
Asia	· By the 2050s, freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease.
· Coastal areas, especially heavily populated megadelta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some megadeltas, flooding from the rivers.
· Climate change is projected to compound the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development.
· Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle.
Latin America	· By mid-century, increases in temperature and associated decreases in soil water are projected to lead to gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. Semi-arid vegetation will tend to be replaced by arid-land vegetation.
· There is a risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many areas of tropical Latin America.
· Productivity of some important crops is projected to decrease and livestock productivity to decline, with adverse consequences for food security. In temperate zones, soybean yields are projected to increase. Overall, the number of people at risk of hunger is projected to increase.
· Changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearance of glaciers are projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.
Small islands	· Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities.
· Deterioration in coastal conditions, for example through erosion of beaches and coral bleaching, is expected to affect local resources.
· By mid-century, climate change is expected to reduce water resources in many small islands, e.g. in the Caribbean and Pacific, to the point where they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods.
· With higher temperatures, increased invasion by non-native species is expected to occur, particularly on mid- and high-latitude islands.

Source: Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Meteorological Agency, “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers” (translated by the Ministry of the Environment)

Table2-1-2 Climate Scenarios and Impacts by Stabilization Level (Nationwide Values)

Climate Scenario/Impact Field	Unit	2030s	2050s	2090s
450s	550s	BaU	450s	550s	BaU	450s	550s	BaU
Change in average temperature (1990=0℃)	℃	0.9	0.9	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.7	1.6	2.3	3.2
Change in annual mean precipitation (1990=100%)	%	100	101	101	105	106	107	107	110	113
Sea level rise (1990=0m)	m	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.10	0.11	0.12	0.15	0.19	0.24
Floods	Flooded area	1000km²	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.6	0.8
Food damage cost potential	Trillion yen/year	1.3	1.3	1.3	4.4	4.7	4.9	5.1	6.1	8.3
Landslide disasters	Probability of slope failure	%	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	6
Slope failure damage cost potential	Trillion yen/year	0.60	0.60	0.60	0.49	0.52	0.58	0.65	0.77	0.94
Beech forest (Japanese beech)	Suitable habitats for Beech forest	%	79	77	77	72	65	61	64	50	32
Cost of damage due to loss of suitable habitats for Beech forest	100 million yen/year	778	829	851	1034	1273	1381	1325	1811	2324
Pine wilt	Areas at risk of pine wilt	%	15	16	16	22	26	28	27	37	51
Rice	Rice yield	t/ha	4.9	5.0	5.0	4.9	5.0	5.1	4.8	4.9	5.1
Sand beaches	Area of sand beach loss	%	13	13	13	19	21	23	29	37	47
Cost of damage due to loss of sand beaches	100 million yen/year	116	118	121	176	192	208	273	338	430
Storm surges	Population affected by storm-surge flooding (western Japan)	10,000 people/year	12	12	12	19	20	21	32	37	44
Population affected by storm-surge flooding (Japan's three major bays)	10,000 people/event	11	11	11	17	17	17	30	32	35
Area of storm-surge flooding (western Japan)	km²/year	60	60	61	92	97	102	155	176	207
Area of storm-surge flooding (Japan's three major bays)	km²/year	24	24	24	37	38	39	63	67	72
Cost of damage due to storm-surge flooding (western Japan)	Trillion yen/year	2.0	2.0	2.0	3.1	3.3	3.5	5.4	6.2	7.4
Cost of damage due to storm-surge flooding (Japan's three major bays)	Trillion yen/year	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	1.8	2.0	2.3
Heat stress	Heat stress mortality risk	—	1.5	1.6	1.6	1.8	2.1	2.2	2.1	2.8	3.7
Cost of damage due to heat stress (heat stroke)	100 million yen/year	243	265	274	373	480	529	501	775	1192

Source: Project Team for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts, 2009

temperatures and the sea level).

More specifically, such measures include construction of breakwater and embankment to prevent storm surge damage in water-related disasters and coastal areas, construction of temporary impounding facilities to mitigate flood damage due to localized heavy rains, securing of refuges for animals and plants that lose their habitats due to global warming in natural ecosystems, early detection and prevention of the perishing and loss of forests, and development of agricultural crops with high temperature resistance in the food field.

“The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change,” a report on the result of studies conducted under the direction of the British Minister of Finance, notes that if no action is taken to cope with global warming, in other words, business as usual (BaU), that would “reduce welfare by an amount equivalent to a reduction in consumption per head of between 5 and 20%.” The Stern Review also estimates the annual costs of stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere at 500-550ppm CO $ _{2} $ e to be around 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050, a level lower than the intensity of measures assumed for Japan’s mid-term goals.

Figure 2-1-2 shows the results of studies on the costs of domestic damage due to the impacts of global warming estimated under the Ministry of the Environment's Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts. The impacts and damage are estimated to decrease considerably if GHG emissions are reduced through mitigation measures. If additional measures are not taken (BaU), however, up to ¥8.3 trillion in flood damage, ¥0.94 trillion in landslide disasters, ¥232.4 billion in cost of damage due to loss of suitable habitats for beech forest, ¥43.0 billion in cost of damage due to loss of sand beaches, ¥7.4 trillion in cost of damage due