Figure2-1-9 Shift to the North of the Habit Distribution of Great Mormons

Source: Masahiko Kitahara, "Expansion of the Range of Butterflies and Global Warming." 2008, Insects and Nature

Figure2-1-11 Lower Quality of Rice due to Immature White Grains

Photo: Satoshi Morita, Senior Researcher, National Agricultural Research Center for Kyushu Okinawa region (KONARC)

As for the impacts on living organisms, there have been reports on the shift of the habitat distribution to the north or to higher altitudes. For example, the habitat distribution of great Mormons, which are said to need the average temperature of around 15 degrees Centigrade at the northern limit of the habitat, has been confirmed to move toward the north from the 1950s to the 2000s (Figure 2-1-9). The decline of alpine plant communities and bleaching of coral reefs have also been confirmed (Figure 2-1-10).

## 2 The Damage Expected in the Future

In recent years, studies on future projections of global warming have made strides and we are now able to envision what the earth will be like 50 years or 100 years later, though with a measure of uncertainty. In this subsection, we address the increase in powerful typhoons, the frequency of heavy rains, the rise in sea level and the increase or decrease in sweltering nights and frost days as symptoms of climate change, and the reduction in suitable habitats for beech forests and the expanding areas at risk of pine wilt as examples of the ill effects of global warming.

Regarding the future forecast of typhoons, the reproducibility of typhoons has improved with the use of

Note: The average for survey points with continuous data series (26 points)

Source: Ministry of the Environment

Figure2-1-12 Sunburn Mandarin Oranges

Photo: Citrus Breeding and Physiology Research Team, National Institute of Fruit Tree Science, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO)

Looking further at the impacts on agricultural products, high temperatures are causing immature white grains (whitened brown rice) and body cracks (cracked brown rice) in rice and sunburned mandarin oranges (Figure 2-1-11, 2-1-12).

It is difficult to determine whether these events have been caused by global warming or by short-run, sporadic high temperatures. It is because that over the long term, the average temperature across Japan has risen about 1.1 degrees Centigrade in the past century, but in the short run, in 2004, the average temperature increased 1.00 degree Centigrade over the average year. It is believed that even when the above-mentioned events have been caused directly by short-term high temperatures, long-term global warming is also likely to have played a key role.

the high-resolution atmospheric global climate model, and the reliability of change forecasts for typhoons has been enhanced. The use of this model indicates that while the total number of tropical cyclones generated in association with global warming will decline, the number of “extremely strong (the maximum wind speed of 44 m/s or more)” tropical cyclones will increase globally, accompanied by heavier rains (Figure 2-1-13). Forecasts of the frequency of heavy rains by the high-resolution regional climate model also show that comparison between two decades of the late 20 $ ^{th} $ century and two decades in the late 21 $ ^{st} $ century indicates that the number of days with heavy rains of more than 100 mm per day