## 3 Life of the Future Generation after Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

What is a low-carbon society, a society after emissions of greenhouse gases were reduced thanks to global warming countermeasures in which each and every entity took part, is like? In the preceding sections, we have asserted that environmental measures should not be taken as constraints on economic growth and we instead should encourage green innovation for economic growth and promote the environment industry. Global warming countermeasures require efforts over a long span of time. How does the Japanese society look in 2050, the target year of long-term goals?

There are a variety of ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and there are also a variety of scenarios for the starting years of introduction of technologies and policy measures. Needless to say, the shape of society in 2050 will change depending on what scenario is put into place.

The desirable socioeconomic shape is not uniform and varies among people. For example, the Ministry of the Environment, under the “Comprehensive Research Project Concerning the Establishment of Methods for Multifaceted and Comprehensive Evaluation, Forecast and Planning of Mid- and Long-Term Policy Options toward the Post-Global Warming Society (hereinafter referred to as “the Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios towards 2050 Project”), a strategic R&D project sponsored by the Global Environment Research Fund (GERF), assumed economic development/technology-oriented Scenario A and community/nature-oriented Scenario B and envisioned their respective concrete images, including demand for energy and services, using the backcasting approach of first assuming desirable socioeconomic visions of 2050, then investigating whether the visions are feasible and lastly verifying what should be done to realize the visions (Figure 2-4-10).

Under economic development/technology-oriented Scenario A, the rate of technical progress is high against the backdrop of active investment in technological development by both the corporate and government sectors, with economic activities vigorous in the society as a whole to maintain per-capital GDP growth of 2% annually. Supporting the high economic growth, on top of the advancement of technology, are active personal consumption and the strong willingness to work. For employment, there is little discrimination between the young and old or between genders, with no nationality-based barriers. The norm for employment is the ability, character and expertise of each individual, and in this sense, the equal opportunity for employment has been achieved. Most of domestic work previously taken care of by women is either outsourced or mechanized, allowing people to have much time to spend on realizing “personal dreams,” like using time outside work for career progression. Personal consumption is robust, as people readily accept new technologies, products and services, leading to relatively short replacement cycles. The numbers of people per household declines, individuals have precedence over families, and young and elderly people living alone increase. The population increases in urban areas than in rural regions, and more people prefer collective housing over single-family detached houses, tending to choose convenient lifestyles.

In community/nature-oriented Scenario B, per-capita GDP growth is lower at 1% a year, but people are sufficiently provided with necessary services, with volunteer and other activities not covered by economic data undertaken actively. As it is possible to get sufficient medical services and education in rural regions as well,

Figure2-4-10 Two Social Visions for Building a Low-Carbon Society

Scenario A: Vigorous, growth-oriented	Scenario B: At ease and self-sufficient
Urban/individuals first	Decentralized/community-oriented
Technological breakthrough by centralized production and recycling	Local production for local consumption, production and consumption of what is necessary, “Mottainai” spirit
Pursuit of a more convenient and comfortable society	Respect for social and cultural values
Per-capita GDP growth of 2%	Per-capita GDP growth of 1%

Source: Prepared by the Ministry of the Environment based on “2050 Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenario Team” (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Kyoto University, and Mizuho Information and Research Institute)