Figure2-1-13 Frequency Distribution of the Average Number of Tropical Cyclones per Year by Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in Global Warming Simulations

Note: Results of the simulations based on the observed sea surface temperature the simulations based on the projected sea surface temperature with small progress in warming (small increase in sea surface temperature) and the experiment based on the predicted sea surface temperature with greater progress in warming (large increase in sea surface temperature).

Source: Meteorological Research Institute, etc., 2007

Source: Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ministry of the Environment, "Climate Change and Its Impacts in Japan" (October 2009)

Figure2-1-15 Global Sea Level Rise by Scenario and Area of Storm-Surge Flooding in Western Japan

BaU scenario: Temperature increase of approx. $ 3.8^{\circ} $ C in 2100

Source: Project Team for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts, 2009

will increase in many regions, except for the southern part of the Kyushu region (Figure 2-1-14).

According to “Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts to Determine the Dangerous Level of Global Warming and Appropriate Stabilization Target of Atmospheric GHG Concentration” (hereafter referred to as “Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts”), a strategic research and development area project financed by the Global Environment Research Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, the global average sea level is projected to rise by about 25 cm by 2100 if no action is taken to cope with global warming. Projections of the flooded area caused by storm surges in Western Japan under the same scenario point to an annual increase of about 200 km $ ^{2} $ by the end of the 21 $ ^{st} $ century, indicating that areas with relatively low levels of coastal waterproof barriers are at risk of being flooded (Figure 2-1-15).

We are already beginning to feel in our bones an increase in sweltering nights and a decrease in frost days. According to the Synthesis Report on Observations, Projections, and Impact Assessments of Climate Change, "Climate Change and Its Impacts in Japan" – which was compiled in October 2009 by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of the Environment – the number of frost days (with the intraday lowest temperature of less than 0 degree Centigrade) 100 years from now is projected to drop particularly sharply in the mountain areas of Honshu, Tohoku and Hokkaido, while the number of sweltering nights (with the intraday lowest temperature of 25 degrees Centigrade or higher) is expected to sharply increase in the Kanto region and south of the Kinki region (Figure 2-1-16).

These temperature changes have a big impact on vegetation, etc. According to studies under the Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts, if no action is taken, suitable habitats for beech forest are projected to decline by nearly 70% by the end of the 21 $ ^{st} $ century, and about 50% of the pine distribution areas that were not at risk of pine wilt at the end of the 20 $ ^{th} $ century are expected to newly become areas at risk of pine wilt (Figure 2-1-17).

Meanwhile, other countries are also making various projections about future impacts of global warming. Many