surface temperature will increase by $ 1.1^{\circ} $ C to $ 6.4^{\circ} $ C at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999.

In addition, the Report states that the global warming tends to reduce land and ocean uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, increasing the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remains in the atmosphere, along with a projection the climate-carbon cycle feedback induce more global average warming. And increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will lead to increasing acidification of the ocean. Projections based on the report give reduction in the average global surface ocean pH between 0.14 to 0.35 units over the 21st century, adding to the present decrease of 0.1 units since pre-industrial times.

In Japan, the average temperature has risen by approximately $ 1^{\circ} $ C during the 20th Century. Climate change will have significant impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, social infrastructure, and human health, possibly leading to drastic lifestyle changes.

To address this problem, the 3rd Conference of the Parties (COP3) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (held in Kyoto in 1997) adopted the Kyoto Protocol which entered into force in February 2005. The Kyoto Protocol set reduction targets for the greenhouse gases emissions of developed countries in the commitment period from 2008 to 2012. The targets for the greenhouse gases emissions are based on the 1990 emissions level. Japan is obliged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 6%.

Also, during the twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention (COP) and the second Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP2) both held in Nairobi, Kenya in November 2006, the parties agreed to hold the second review of the Kyoto Protocol at the time of the COP/MOP4 in 2008, and a work schedule for the review was also agreed upon.

Japan produces approximately 5% of the total world $ CO_{2} $ emissions, which is the 4th largest in the world after the U.S.A. (about 23%), China (about 16%) and Russia (about 6%). Developed nations produce larger $ CO_{2} $ emissions per capita than developing nations.

Japan emitted 1,360 million tons* of greenhouse gases (hereinafter, figures marked with * represent data for $ CO_{2} $ equivalents) in FY2006, which was 7.8% higher than the total emissions of the base year (1,261 million tons*) as stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol. Japan's greenhouse gas emissions were 0.2% lower than the preceding year. Compared to the base year level (1990 in principle), a breakdown by sectors shows that the emissions of greenhouse gases for the industrial sector had decreased by 5.5%, while that of the transport sector had increased by 18.1%, the commercial and other sectors had increased by 44.6%, and the residential sector had increased by 36.7%.

The Kyoto Protocol Achievement Plan, which was adopted by the Cabinet in April 2005, contains about sixty items of measures that collectively aim to attain the target of a 6% reduction in accordance with the Protocol and also support our continuous long-term efforts of reducing GHG emissions. In July 2006, the progress of those measures was assessed, and it was pointed out that

Figure 5-1-2: CO₂ Emissions and Per Capita CO₂ Emissions by Nation

Compiled by the Ministry of the Environment based on the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics in Japan 2007.