## I I Recent migration trends

## 1 Residence five years earlier – decreasing trend of migration

As in the previous survey, the present survey asked respondents to specify the location of residence five years earlier (on July 1, 1991). These answers enable us to obtain information on general trends of recent migration; that is, whether migration in the most recent five years was more active or not, compared to migration in the past. The Population Census of 1990 also contains the same information on migration. Questions on migration, however, are only asked every 10 years. Furthermore, the definition of migration was changed in 1990, which made it difficult to compare the data of 1980 and 1990. Therefore, the recent trend of migration at a national level, especially by age, can be documented only by the present survey. It should be noted, however, that the data on residence five years earlier could not count every move in the last five years. For example, if a person left a parent's home in April 1992, studied at a university in a different prefecture for four years, and returned home in March 1996, these moves are not counted as migration.

Table 2 shows the results of the present $ (4^{th}) $ and previous $ (3^{rd}) $ surveys. Respondents with “residence five years earlier is unknown” are omitted. The data of the present survey indicate that in total, 22.2% of respondents lived in a different residence five years earlier. Data by age show that the percentage of “different residence” is highest in the 25-29 age group at 49.5%. After this age group, the percentage decreases as age rises. As for “different residence,” the share of “the same municipality,” i.e., relatively short-distance moves, becomes larger in higher age groups. In the 20-24 age group, the percentage of “different prefecture” is high, indicating that a large number of respondents in this age group migrated long distances to enter the labor market or higher educational institutes in the last five years.

The results of the $ 3^{rd} $ survey display that the percentage of those who lived in a different residence five years earlier (1986) is 26.7% in total, 4.5% higher than in the $ 4^{th} $ survey. When compared by age, the percentages in the $ 3^{rd} $ survey are larger in all age groups, showing that migration in 1991-1996 was smaller than in 1986-1991. The second half of the 1980s was the time of “Bubble Economy” when a re-concentration of population in the Tokyo metropolitan area was highlighted. While the difference in migration between these two periods is not necessarily explained solely by economic situations, it is better to keep in mind such an economic background when we focus on the details of the survey results.

Concerning respondents who lived in a different residence five years earlier, the percentage for “foreign country” increased a little. But those of other categories, i.e., “same municipality,” “different municipality in the same prefecture,” and “different prefecture” decreased. When compared by age, changes in the 15-29 age group (ages when migration behavior is most active) are conspicuous. Above all, the decrease in the percentage of “different prefecture” in the 20-24 age group is largest at 5.7% points. It can thus be summarized from Table 2 that while the recent decrease of migration is observed in all age groups and in both short- and long-distance moves, the most outstanding change is displayed by long-distance moves in the 20-24 age group, which are closely connected to educational advancement and entering the labor market. It should also be noted that an analysis by sex reveals a more marked decreasing trend in females than in males (not shown in the tables). As has already been shown, the percentage of “different prefecture” in the 20-24 age group decreased 5.7% points in total. This figure decreased 5.0% points in males and 7.5% points in females, indicating that long-distance migration in 20-24 year-old women decreased most considerably.