ecological distribution have been observed: habitat ranges of some alpine flora have decreased; habitat ranges of insects and animals have changed; the flowering dates of cherry blossoms and foliage season of maple leaves have shifted. Also increased frequency of heavy downpours is observed. Global warming has been pointed out as one of the causes of such meteorological and ecological changes. However, relationship between the observed phenomena and anthropogenic climate change has not been fully established on a firm scientific basis. Progress in further research is expected to shed more light on the issue.

Projected Impacts of Global Warming

Index	Projected Effects
Global mean surface temperature	Increase of 1.4 $ ^{\circ} $ C-5.8 $ ^{\circ} $ C from 1990 to 2100
Global mean sea level	Rise of 9-88cm from 1990 to 2100
Impacts on meteorological phenomenon	Increase in floods and droughts
Impacts on human health	Heat stroke patients increase; infectious diseases, such as Malaria, become widespread
Impacts on ecosystem	Extinction of some fauna and flora, shift in ecosystem ranges
Impacts on agriculture	Grain production decreases in many areas. Some areas may experience increases in the near future.
Impacts on water resources	Further decrease in water resources and degradation of water quality, in many areas experiencing water shortage
Impacts on the market	Developing countries dependent upon the production of primary products will suffer immense economic loss.

Source: Compiled by the Ministry of the Environment based on the IPCC Third Assessment Report.

## Section 3 Ultimate Goal of the Kyoto Protocol

### 1. In Pursuit of the Ultimate Objective of the Convention

The ultimate objective of the Convention is the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere means maintaining the gas concentrations at certain levels by balancing the amounts of gases emitted into the atmosphere with the amounts absorbed by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. Any eventual

stabilization level is governed by the accumulated greenhouse gas emissions until the time of stabilization. From now on, it is necessary to scientifically assess the level of global warming that is likely to take place, at what probability, and what the impacts will be, and to determine in terms of policy measures how much emissions should be reduced and by when it should be achieved.

No international consensus has been reached on the eventual stabilization levels of GHG concentrations. According to the projection of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, the $ CO_{2} $ emission must be drastically reduced (50–80%) in order to stabilize the atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Changes in CO₂ Emissions in Different Stabilization Scenarios

Source: Compiled by the Ministry of the Environment based on the IPCC Third Assessment Report.

### 2. Beyond the Kyoto Protocol

In order to stabilize the atmospheric GHG concentrations, it is necessary to curb their emissions on a long-term, continuous basis even after the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is over. To that end, measures should be taken not only from the perspective of meeting short-term goals, such as the numerical targets stipulated by the Kyoto Protocol, but also from a mid-to-long term perspective.

To achieve the ultimate objective, we must accumulate scientific knowledge and intensively carry out studies to answer the questions, such as at what levels should the concentrations be stabilized, by when should the world's overall emissions of greenhouse gases start to decrease, and how much should the total emissions be at that time. In view of the characteristics of global warming issues, we need to seek to change our awareness, reform the social systems, and