# Chapter 3

## Aiming at a Socio Economic System for Sustainable Development

## Summary of Chapter 3>

Based on the world’s economic growth and population increase, we can predict further increase of environmental load on the global scale so that the current socio-economic system faces environmental constraints.

This Chapter clarifies the necessity for active immediate environmental measures to avoid such environmental constraints. The Chapter also clarifies that the efforts for environmental measures bring various economical benefits and international contribution by Japan is important to secure sustainability on the global scale under the current situation in the lead-up to the Johannesburg Summit. It also examines the process towards structuring of a sustainable society in Japan.

### 1. Actualization of Environmental Constraints and Possibility of New Measures

## 1 ) Necessity for handling environmental constraints

In spite of annual fluctuations, the world economy is consistently growing over the long term and the world population is expected to reach 9.3 billion by 2050, which is an increase of 50% from 2001. Such future economic development and population growth lead to an increase of various environmental loads and increases the possibility for the current socio-economic system to face some environmental constraints. For resources, the major mineral resources are expected to last for the next 30 to 40 years only; oil and natural gases are expected to be exhausted in the next 40 years and 60 years respectively. Thus, a definite reduction of the absolute amount for global resources is concerned.

Regarding the influence on the environment, for global warming, the average temperature of the entire Earth is expected to rise by $ 1.4^{\circ} $ C to $ 5.8^{\circ} $ C during the period from 1990 to 2100 and the sea level is expected to rise for 9cm to 88cm. It is feared that such changes impose serious influences on people's livelihood and production foundations including increase of drought and flood, unstable grain production, and various influences on health and related issues in Japan are expected. For water resources, due to an increase of population and the amount of water extracted, the population of about 5 billion is expected to suffer water restriction by 2025. For food production, it is expected that the increase of demand for meat in developing countries will cause a dramatic production increase; the demand for grains for livestock feed is expected to be doubled during the period from 1995 to 2020. Expansion to the lands unsuitable for cultivation may cause deterioration of soil and water quality, particularly in developing countries. For biological diversity, 60,000 species of plants, which account for one quarter of all the species in the world are assumed to become extinct by 2025.

Transition of world population

Number of years available in terms of reserves of major energy resources and mineral resources

As of 2000 (however, 1997 for Uranium and 1999 for aluminum)

Number of years available = Amount of reserve/production amount

Presentation: Prepared by the Ministry of the Environment based on "Statistical Review of World Energy 2001" by BP Amoco and "Mineral Commodity Summaries 2001 (partly 2000)", and "World Metal Statistics 2001" by OECD/NEA-IAEA.