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THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE CHECKLIST
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11/27/1963
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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE CHECKLIST
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
27 NOVEMBER 1963
TOP SECRET
S
HAVANA
CUBA
ISLE OF PINES
SECRET
SECRET
SECRET
Nip
aval Base
NAUTICAL MILES
63 11.26 6
0
1.
Cuba
2. Syria-Iraq
a. Cuban tents are now begin-
ning to appear at a number of the
SAM sites--further evidence that
training of Cubans in operation of
SAM equipment has begun as scheduled.
b.
High-altitude photography
taken this past weekend shows these
tents at six SAM sites in western
Cuba. These sites are in addition
to those at which we noted the pres-
ence of Cuban interpreters as we
reported on Saturday.
C. This training should be com-
pleted by next May or June.
d. Just before the training
started, we noted a series of moves.
involving the relocation of eight of
the SAM sites.'
e. The purpose, it appears,
was to shift the mission of the sys-
tem from an area defense of the
island as a whole to point defense
of specific targets, particularly
Havana. (Includes INTERCEPTS)
a. Syrian leaders have acceded
to pressure from Iraq and have ex-
pelled Iraqi Baathist extremist Ali
Saadi.
He has gone to Athens
For The President Only - Top Secret
✓
:
PARTY STRENGTHS IN TURKISH ELECTIONS
(by % of total vote)
1961 General Election
1963 Local Election
36.7
37.0
Republican Peoples' Party (RPP)
34.8
Justice Party (JP)
45.9
13.7
New Turkey Party (NTP)
6.5
14.0
Republican Peasant Nation Party (RPNP)
2.8
3.1
Nation Party (NP)
0.8
Independents (or unreported vote)
4.3
Turkish Labor Party (TLP)
0.4
631125 C
__
_
L Ŀ L
3.
Turkey
b. This is an earnest of the
desire of moderate Baathist leaders
in Damascus to preserve workable re-
lations with Iraq, partly as a
counterbalance to Cairo and partly
to preserve what remains of Baathist
influence in Baghdad.
c. Intercepts show at least
some Syrian troops will remain in
Iraq at the request of Iraqi offi-
cials.
d.
Preparations had been under.
way for these forces to withdraw;
retention of at least some in Iraq
is another sign that both regimes
hope to preserve something of the
relations they once had.
(Includes INTERCEPTS)
a.
Prime Minister Inonu's
coalition government is about to
collapse.
b. It has long been shaky.
Last week it was dealt a severe set-
back when the opposition Justice
Party, heir of the Menderes regime,
emerged from local elections as the
country's majority party.
For The President Only - Top Secret
(Cont'd)
160
160
140
120
100
80
00
60
40
20
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN SOVIET AGRICULTURE
INDEX OF NET AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION
1950=100
1963-2
Fertilizer program.
1963
Wheat purchases.
1955-56
Corn program.
TOTAL POPULATION OF THE USSR
1950 100
1958
Machine-tractor
stations abolished.
1957-58
Program to "catch up" with
US in meat and milk output.
1962-63
Program to plow up and
plant fallow lands.
1962
Livestock product
prices raised.
1961-62
Administrative
reorganizations.
1954-56
1953-55
New Lands program.
Procurement prices raised.
0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
631021 2A
SOVIET GRAIN PRODUCTION
LL GRAINS
WHEAT ALONE
___ (_ L
4.
USSR wheat
C. Now the Peasant Party, one
of the three in the coalition, has
voted to pull out, and probably will
do so as soon as Inonu gets back from
Washington. Another partner, the
Turkey Party, has wanted to pull out,
and apparently has stayed in only
because of pressure from the military.
d. A new coalition is at least
a theoretical possibility, with a
number of independents taking the
place of the Peasant Party, but
Inonu probably would not be prime
minister.
e.
The military are working
for an all-party coalition. This
way, they feel, they could keep
tabs on the Justice Party, but the
Justice Party is not likely to buy
this arrangement.
f. As matters now stand, the
military would take over the govern-
ment itself before it would let the
Justice Party form one.
a. Soviet President Brezhnev
has told the Iranian prime minister
that the decision to buy wheat abroad
was taken to avoid lowering reserves,
which he has described as ample for
one or two years. We think the sit-
uation is more serious than that.
(Cont'd)
For The President Only - Top Secret
b. This year's harvest was
clearly very bad. The weight of
evidence suggests that Soviet grain
stockpiles have been far drawn down
this year and are not sufficient to
protect the country from another
poor harvest.
C. Our estimate is that total
grain production each year since
1958 has been well below that year's
level of 125 million tons, while
the population has continued to grow.
d.
We have seen from intercepts
signs of extensive slaughtering in
anticipation of fodder shortages
during the winter. This runs counter
to Khrushchev's oft-stated plan to
build up the livestock industry.
e.
We have also noted that
the extensive wheat purchases weaken
the USSR's gold reserves at a time
when it hopes to expand its imports
of machinery for a huge chemical
fertilizer program.
E.
In addition, we have seen
signs of stringent measures to pro-
tect the grain supply, accompanied
by public discontent in some areas
over the absence of bread.
(Cont'd)
For The President Only - Top Secret

5.
Communist
China
-
Argentina
a.
Peiping last week con-
tracted for some 300,000 tons of
wheat (cost about $20,000,000) from
Argentina.
b. This adds to the 1,000,000
tons just contracted for with Aus-
tralia, but is still far below
the 5,000,000 tons the Chinese have
normally imported in recent years.
Additional suppliers will be hard
to find.
C.
A large sale, apparently
involving some $56,000,000 worth
of meat, is apparently also being
arranged. This is interesting,
not only for the sizeable foreign
exchange outlay, but also for the
concern it shows for improving the
diet of the mainland's urban pop-
ulation.
d. The same caloric value
could be obtained from grains at
a fraction of this cost.
(INTERCEPTS throughout)
For The President Only - Top Secret
Czechoslovakia-
6.
USSR
7.
Cambodia
a.
Czech President and party
boss Novotny has gone to Moscow,
evidently for economic talks, judg-
ing by the composition of his dele-
gation.
b. Novotny's background of
Stalinist excesses have put him on
the wrong side of Khrushchev. They
also have given rise to control
problems, particularly in the frac-
tious Slovak party where pressures
for liberalization have made their
mark.
C. Party problems and Novotny's
leadership may thus also come under
review.
d. A curious sign of the times
is the fact that, although President
Novotny is in Moscow, the presidential
flag has remained up at the official
residence. It might simply have been
an oversight, but the symbolism will
not be lost to the people in Prague.
a. Cambodia, as expected, has
asked the Geneva co-chairman to call
the Geneva conference participants
together (in Djakarta) to discuss
measures "to ensure the internation-
ally guaranteed and controlled neu-
tralization of Cambodia."
For The President Only - Top Secret
(Cont'd)
JB
Qizan
Al Muwassam
•
Maydi
KAMARAN
(U.K.)
Zuhjati
RED
SEA
Mocha
ETHIOPIA
33905
FR.
SOM.
L
Jinhah:
onna
IZED ZONE
Sirwah
dihannah
Harib
Cairo s
SYRIA
JORDAN
IRAQ
U. A. R.
(EGYPT)
Ras Banas
RedE
SUDAN
Khartoum
GULF OF ADEN
50 MILES
13 SEPTEMBER 1963
SAUDI
Riyadh
Jidda
Sea Mecca
Taif
ARABIA
ETHIOPIA
*
Addis Ababa
Sana
YEMEN
{ LLLL
8.
Egypt-Yemen
b.
Last year when this came
up, the French were inclined to go
along with some such idea.
C. They have indicated to us
that they still feel Sihanouk should
not be turned down, and Sihanouk is
obviously hopeful that they will
exert pressure on us and the British.
d. Sihanouk seems to be hoping
for at least a rump session attended
by conferees who are willing to do
his bidding.
a. An Egyptain military mes-
sage reporting to Cairo on operations
in Yemen this past weekend indicated
that poison gas (referred to as
"ghurab" in Egyptian military traf-
fic) was used against royalist tribes-
men in the northwest.
b. This is the first time we
have noted its employment since
last summer, although another inter-
cept shows that the Egyptian com-
mand has continued to authorize its
use.
For The President Only - Top Secret
(Cont'd)
9.
Congo
C. It is basically a tear gas,
but in such highly concentrated form
that it has caused the death of a num-
ber of Yemenis.
(INTERCEPTS throughout)
a.
Opposition leftist Congo-
lese exiles, operating from Brazza-
ville across the river, are reported
to be plotting to assassinate Congo-
lese Premier Adoula and some of his
ministers.
b. It is supposed to happen
sometime after 8 December.
C. Meanwhile, agents are being
infiltrated with money to buy off
opposition to a takeover immediately
thereafter by radical nationalist
Gbenye.
d. Adoula's government already
knows that this group of left-wing
subversives, which now numbers about
50, is being helped by the Communist
bloc.
e. It operates fairly freely
in the loose circumstances which now
obtain in Brazzaville. Its activities
may soon become a serious source of
friction between the two countries.
For The President Only - Top Secret
NOTES
:
A.
B.
.C.
D.
E.
South Korea With 85 percent of the vote in, Pak
Chong-hui's Democratic Republican Party has already.
won an absolute majority in the National Assembly
elections held yesterday.
Venezuela The country's three major presidential
candidates were the targets of unsuccessful assassi-
nation attempts yesterday as Communist-led terror-
ists moved into the final week of desperate attempt
to wreck next Sunday's elections. A US Embassy of-
ficial was also the intended recipient of a "Christ-
mas package" containing a bomb. Yesterday a US
rubber warehouse was set afire and destroyed by
terrorists.
Indonesia-Philippines
We have what is about as
sure a sign as we can get that Sukarno will be go-
ing to Manila as reported yesterday. A reliable
source tells us Sukarno has sent advance word to
two of his favorite Philippine girl friends that he
will be arriving on 28 November.
Indonesia-Malaysia
Indonesian-inspired press re-
ports yesterday claimed a British military plane
was shot down near the North Borneo border. Brit-
ish Intelligence tells us the story is concocted;
no aircraft are reported missing.
Cuba The alert in the Cuban military which we
noted immediately after President Kennedy's death
has been lifted. (INTERCEPT)
For The President Only - Top Secret
(Cont'd)
§
!!
F.
G.
Cambodia
Cambodia is cutting its diplomatic rep-
resentation abroad to a bare minimum as an austerity
measure following curtailment of US aid, Sihanouk
announced last week that this would be done, saying
that missions in Communist countries would not be
affected since those countries "protect" Cambodia.
Curiously enough, among the missions being closed
down are those in New Delhi and Rangoon. (Includes
(INTERCEPTS)
USSR-US Pravda this morning reports on Gromyko's
talks with President Johnson, giving top play to
Senator Fulbright's remarks about the desirability
of a meeting between the President and Khrushchev.
For The President Only - Top Secret
I.
II.
DOCUMENTS OF INTEREST
De Gaulle on NATO strategy.
Common Market official appraises President Johnson.
(Sensitive INTERCEPT)
For The President Only - Top Secret