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TITLE:
THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE CHECKLIST
DATE:
PAGES:.
11/26/1963
11
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INTELLIGENCE REPORT
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L
THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE CHECKLIST
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
71
26 NOVEMBER 1963
TOP SECRET
1.
Iraq-Syria
a. The shaky new accommodation
between the two countries following
the recent coup in Iraq has been
threatened by Syria's action in grant-
ing asylum to Ali Saleh Saadi, the
exiled leader of the extremist wing
of the Iraqi Baath.
b. Saadi had arrived in Syria
unannounced following a brief stay
in Madrid. On Friday, Iraq sent a
message asking Syria to expel him on
grounds that sheltering him was a
breach of agreement.
C. Both regimes continue to be
troubled with internal dissension
with affairs in one deeply tangled
with those in the other.
d. In Syria, as we mentioned
yesterday, the Baathist regime is
split between moderates who desire
a broadening of the government's
power base, and a doctrinaire faction
which wants to keep all control of
the government in Baathist hands.
e. In Iraq, the pull is more
away from the Baathists. Two minis-
ters have threatened to resign unless
the government adopts an openly pro-
Egyptian policy. Nevertheless the
government feels secure enough to
ease up on curfew and transport re-
strictions imposed since the coup.
(Cont'd)
For The President Only - Top Secret
Luang Prabang
SECRET
Ban Song Học
lương Khung
PLATEAU DU
-YEN NINH
Nong Pet
Kangahay
Muong Phanh . PLAINE Phong Savan
E. Muông Soui
PhousKeng
Phou Khoun
Ban Hin Heup
34247
Ven
Ban Namone
EKONG
VIENTIANE.
THAILAND
Nam
Nyum
DESARRES
Dong Danh
Lat Houang
Xieng Khouang
SECRET
Ban Bản
Pak Sane
Nong Het
THAILAND
SECRET
LAOS
Area
of main
mo
or trail
NORTH
VIETNAM
!
1.
2.
Laos
f. Iraq has announced that the
military union with Syria remains in
force, and that a new commander of
the joint armies will be announced
soon.
(Includes INTERCEPTS)
a.
Intercepted neutralist mes-
sages on Sunday reported that govern-
ment forces had finally secured Vang
Vieng and its airfield, long held
by the Pathet Lao. They also told
of the capture of Ban Namone farther
south on Route 13.
b. The neutralist, rightist Lao
Army, and Meo tribal guerrilla forces
hope to sustain their coordinated
clearing action until remaining Pathet
Lao pockets in this area north of
Vientiane are cleared.
C. Such operations in Laos
have often been followed by a Com-
munist riposte. We have a few in-
dicators that something could be up
on the Communist side, but these are
so far very tenuous indeed.
d. One such indicator is a
stand down in the last two weeks on
the Hanoi-controlled military com-
munications net in Laos which could
(Cont'd)
For The President Only - Top Secret
3. South Vietnam
point to a change in the disposition
or strength of Communist forces.
Other enemy nets are normal.
e. There are also unconfirmed
reports of North Vietnamese troop
reinforcements in the Plaine des
Jarres.
(INTERCEPTS)
a. According to press reports,
Viet Cong attacks on Sunday wiped
out two of the government's strategic
hamlets in the central highlands about
250 miles north of Saigon.
b.
More than 1,000 inhabitants
in the hamlets--who are minority
tribesmen--are missing and possibly
have fled into the mountains. They
abandoned a significant quantity of
weapons to the Viet Cong.
c.
These attacks not only sug-'
gest continued erosion of the govern-
ment's programs to win over tribal
support, but also signal that stepped-
up Viet Cong pressure against the new
regime is spreading to the north.
(Cont'd)
For The President Only - Top Secret
i
L
Odessa
Riga
22 OCTOBER 1963 ICBM FIRING FROM PLESETSK
Vilnius
Minsk
Leningrgo P
Noworod
Smolensk
PLESETSK
MOSCOW
Kollas
Gor'kyo
Comprope
Noronash
Razan'
trovsk
Perm
Muybyshev
Sverdlovsk
Vladimirov
Kapustin Yar
Ural
Chelyata
Orenburg
Keravan
strakhan
Kanungach
Chekar
TYURATAM ICBM
TEST RANGEHEAD
Movoush
FARALIL
SEAMS Tyruretam
*NURUS
Ashbynhau
Bukhara
Enardzhou,
TOP SECRET DINAR
6310276071
33609 8-63
Norilsk
Igarka
verkhnyansh
Lena
Khanty Manswysh
U
S
S
Vilyuy
Yakulsk
Irtysh
Hustanay
Ххоспетач
Onisk
Tselinograd
Araganda
Semipalalins
Kayl Ordin
Sary Shagan
Lake
Balkhash
Dushanbe
Frunze
forgane
Alma Ald
Novos Dus
Po.
Tomsh
em-seysh
List Rul
xasnoyarsk
Brasi
Kemerovo
Barnaul
Lake
Baikal
Aretie
Magadan
LCBM
Xlyuchi
IMPACT
AREA
Komsomolsk
L
____
L
4.
USSR
d. This Communist effort is
aimed at discrediting the post-Diem
regime before the new leadership is
able to get its feet on the ground
and capture the loyalty and respect
of people in the provinces.
e. Although the Viet Cong still
continues to draw its main strength
from local recruiting, a steady stream
of cadre and training personnel con-
tinues to make its way to the south
from North Vietnam along the Laotian
border.
f. We are now reasonably sure
that at least 784 persons infiltrated
from the north during 1963 and the
actual total may be much higher.
a. There have been no further
developments in Soviet preparations
for a series of extended range ICBM
shots to the Pacific.
b.
We probably should have had
by now an announcement closing an area
roughly 500 miles south of Johnston
Island to shipping. We suspect the
Soviets may have delayed it in order
not to appear to be rattling rockets
immediately after President Kennedy's
death.
HARRI
(Cont'd)
For The President Only - Top Secret
5.
i
USSR-Berlin
C.
The USSR may repeat last
year's performance of multiple fir-
ings from a prototype operational
complex at Tyuratam. Three such
launchings were attempted at five-
minute intervals in May 1963; two
succeeded.
d. We also do not rule out the
possibility of firings from opera-
tional sites as opposed to the test
center at Tyuratam. We observed
the first such firing on 22 October
from the Plesetsk site, roughly 400
miles northeast of Moscow.
(Includes INTERCEPTS)
a. Embassy Bonn feels that
the Soviet Union may be seeking at
least a temporary modus vivendi on
the autobahn without prejudicing
its juridical position, which can
be used to cause difficulties there
in the future.
b. The embassy bases this on
the Soviet replies to the Western
notification to the USSR on 29
October regarding harmonized convoy
procedures--two oral statements on
16 November and a note of 21 Novem-
ber.
(Cont'd)
For The President Only - Top Secret

:
6.
Brazil
C. The Soviet note was designed
to make a record, showing that the
USSR exercises "control" of the auto-
bahn and that the recent incidents
resulted from US refusal to comply
with "existing procedures.'
11.
d. On the other hand, the Soviet
procedures described in the oral re-
plies seem to reflect actual Allied
practices, though there is enough
ambiguity to afford the USSR flexi-
bility in any future actions.
a. The danger of an immediate
coup against the Goulart regime has
receded with the reported decision
of Second Army Commander General
Bevilaqua not to join the coup plot-
ters.
b. Bevilaqua, who has been some-
thing of a storm center, may have
been asked to hand over his command
today as part of a series of reassign-
ments made by President Goulart to
keep the military off balance.
C. On the other side of the
coin, there is widespread belief
that Goulart himself will at some
time resort to a coup to establish
an authoritarian regime.
For The President Only - Top Secret
(Cont'd)
1
1
d. As one example Raneiri
Mazzilli, President of the Chamber
of Deputies and next in line for the
presidency, told Ambassador Gordon
on Saturday that he profoundly mis-
trusts Goulart's intentions and in-
tends to maintain the strictest con-
gressional vigilance.
e.
Our station in Brazil be-
lieves that Goulart is living in a
dream world. He seems either out
of touch with reality or very poorly
informed. Public opinion is not
with him and the tradition that po-
litical power should only be trans-
ferred constitutionally is very
strong in the army, coup reports
notwithstanding.
f. The biggest danger from
this quarter is that the opposition
may resort to some illegal act, giv-
ing Goulart the excuse to take over.
For The President Only - Top Secret
:
1
NOTES
A. Ethiopia-Congo Haile Selassie has acceded to our
ambassador's request and is rescinding his earlier
decision to withdraw the 1,743-man Ethiopian con-
tingent from the UN force in the Congo.
B.
C.
D.
Communist China
-
Africa The Guinean ambassador
in Peiping has it unofficially that Premier Chou En-
lai will leave in mid-December for a tour of some
Afro-Asian countries. He is to stop first in Egypt
and then visit several other African countries includ-
ing Guinea, Ghana, and Mali, Chou would be the high-
est ranking Chinese leader ever to visit Africa. (IN-
TERCEPTS)
Indonesia-Philippines
Two good sources have reported
that President Sukarno plans to go to Manila this
Thursday to confer with Philippine President Macapagal.
No reasons have been advanced for the visit.. Our
charge guesses that it is an Indonesian move to head
off Philippine recognition of Malaysia.
Venezuela The terrorists have struck again, this
time firing six US-owned oil and gas pipelines near
the northeastern city of Puerto la Cruz. The elec-
tions are still on for Sunday, and we look for a maxi-
mum effort from the pro-Castro terrorist organization.
E. Congo We now have word that 49 members of the Soviet
Embassy, including dependents, left Leopoldville on
Saturday aboard a Sabena flight for Brussels. They
are expected to book onward passage for Moscow. It is
reported that the Congolese will allow one Russian
without diplomatic status to stay to look after Soviet
property.
For The President Only - Top Secret