Since 2018, the term "stochastic terrorism" has become a popular descriptor when discussing lone wolf attacks. While the exact definition has evolved over time, it commonly refers to the idea that demonizing or dehumanizing a targeted group or individual incites violence that is statistically likely, but cannot be precisely predicted.

Definition 
The meanings of the words composing the term stochastic terrorism help to clarify its definition. "Stochastic" is an adjective which describes something that is random, or involves chance or probability (is probabilistic). While definitions of terrorism vary, this one contains the common and important elements: "the unlawful use of violence or threats to intimidate or coerce a civilian population or government, with the goal of furthering political, social, or ideological objectives.  Stochastic terrorism, then, would be random or probabilistic terrorism.

However, as terrorism is a complex phenomenon there are many elements which could be random; the meaning of stochastic terrorism depends upon its accepted usage.  The following definition reflects the term's current accepted usage: "Stochastic terrorism is the public demonization of a person or group resulting in the incitement of a violent act, which is statistically probable but whose specifics cannot be predicted." To reiterate and add some terms: an entity (an individual or group or organization) acts as a stochastic terrorist by demonizing a target entity which motivates a third group, the terrorist entity, to carry out a terrorist act against the target.  This terrorist scenario is stochastic because with the public demonization of a target, a terrorist act against the target is not certain but is made more likely.  It is also stochastic because the identity of the terrorist and the timing and means of the attack cannot be predicted.

Terminology 
The mathematician and catastrophist Gordon Woo introduced the term in published form in 2002 and subsequently elaborated upon it. In the original article, he briefly described a "Stochastic Terrorism Model".  In his short explanation of the model he emphasized the idea that the media's reaction to a terrorist attack as one of the elements, but not the only element, that may have an important influence on the timing of attacks in a terrorist program.  While describing some of the elements of a stochastic model that would be used to estimate the probability of a terrorist attack he states: "The absolute number of attacks within a year, i.e. the rhythm of terror, might ultimately be determined as much by publicity goals and the political anniversary calendar as by the size of the terrorist ranks".  The idea that this original concept of stochastic terrorism is used by Gordon Woo "to suggest a quantifiable relationship between seemingly random acts of terrorism and the goal of perpetuating fear through mass media’s coverage of the violence." is a misinterpretation of his concept.

A variation of this stochastic terrorism model was later adapted by an anonymous blogger posting on Daily Kos in 2011 to describe public speech that can be expected to incite terrorism without a direct organizational link between the inciter and the perpetrator. The term "stochastic" is used in this instance to describe the random, probabilistic nature of its effect; whether or not an attack actually takes place. The stochastic terrorist in this context does not direct the actions of any particular individual or members of a group. Rather, the stochastic terrorist gives voice to a specific ideology via mass media with the aim of optimizing its dissemination.

It is in this manner that the stochastic terrorist is thought to randomly incite individuals predisposed to acts of violence. Because stochastic terrorists do not target and incite individual perpetrators of terror with their message, the perpetrator may be labelled a "lone wolf" by law enforcement, while the inciters avoid legal culpability and public scrutiny.

History 
In their 2017 book Age of Lone Wolf Terrorism, criminologist Mark S. Hamm and sociologist Ramón Spaaij discuss stochastic terrorism as a form of "indirect enabling" of terrorists. They write that "stochastic terrorism is the method of international recruitment used by ISIS", and they refer to Anwar al-Awlaki and Alex Jones as stochastic terrorists.

Hamm and Spaaij discuss two instances of violence. In the 2010 Oakland freeway shootout, Byron Williams was said to be en route to offices of the American Civil Liberties Union and the Tides Foundation, planning to commit mass murder, "indirectly enabled by the conspiracy theories" of Glenn Beck and Alex Jones. As a left-wing example, they cite the 2012 shooting incident at the headquarters of the Family Research Council.

In his book Words on Fire (2020) author Helio Fred Garcia also describes the 2009 murder of George Tiller to be an example of stochastic terrorism, as many conservative news opinion shows and talk radio shows repeatedly demonized him for his administration of post-viability abortions. For example, Fox News host Bill O'Reilly, during his evening opinion show The O'Reilly Factor referred to Dr. Tiller as "Tiller the Baby Killer" on various occasions. In the wake of escalating attacks on the LGBT community in the early 2020s, including bomb threats on children's hospitals and the Colorado Springs nightclub shooting, right-wing activists such as Matt Walsh and Chaiya Raichik of Libs of TikTok have been accused of stochastic terrorism.

See also

References 

Terrorism by method