International road cargo transport in Poland and other EU countries

<jats:p>In the modern world, transport as an integral part of social life is important. The development of all modes of transport requires continuous efficient management of the transport process, as well as the use of tools to optimise this process. This article aims to analyse international road cargo transport in EU countries and Poland from 2008-2018. The first part of this article analyses the number of employees and the trade of transport companies in EU countries. Then, the share of individual modes of transport in the transport of cargo in Poland from 2008 and 2018 is presented. The next section presents the results of the forecast of the volume of cargo transported by road in Poland from 2019-2021. The forecast values of the volume of cargo transport in Poland for 2019-2021, which were determined from the additive and multiplicative model, are at a similar level to the values for 2008-2018.</jats:p>

section_content: In the modern world, transport as an integral part of social life is important [1]. The development of civilisation, mass consumption, specialisation of labour, and the distant location of places of production of products necessary for human existence causes a territorial gap between the producer, seller, and buyer [9]. As distances extend, supply chains also lengthen, resulting in increased demand for transportation services [6]. Road transport is one of the most popular modes of transport in the world [2, 3]. The increase in the share of road cargo transport contributes to the increase in road traffic. On the other hand, the increasing traffic intensity on the roads affects the deterioration of road conditions, lowering the level of safety, and harms the natural environment [4, 5, 8]. In addition to the impact of transport on social life, it is equally important in the economy of any country [7, 11, 14]. 

A well-developed transport network is a key element for the development of an economy, both domestic and global. In addition, it enables the migration of people and is a link that allows the development of tourism. In the case of many countries in the world, it is strongly related to the real economic growth of the state, that is, the increase in real gross domestic product. Connections of regions in the transport network make it possible to transport cargo between suppliers and recipients. An important aspect is that due to the extensive and dense transport network, the possibility of transporting cargo between countries is ensured [10]. 

The development of all modes of transport requires the continuous development of transport process management, managing people working in this industry, as well as the use of tools to optimise this process. Appropriate management of any type of enterprise, be it service or production, requires forecasting activities in subsequent periods. 

This article aims to analyse international road cargo transport in EU countries and Poland from 2008-2018. It consists of four sections. After the introduction, section two presents an analysis of international road cargo transport in EU countries from 2008-2015. The next section of the article presents the results of the forecast of the number of cargo transportation by road in Poland. Finally, the article ends with a summary.
section_name: INTRODUCTION

section_content: Figure 1 shows the number of people employed in transport companies in 2008 and 2015 in individual EU countries. Among all EU countries, Germany had the largest number of employees in transport companies in 2008 (690 700 people). In France, registered people working in transport companies were 651 700, while in Spain -611 700 people. In 2008, Great Britain and Italy employed over 500 000 people (526 500 and 514 900, respectively). Poland was in fifth place (436 600 people), followed by the Netherlands with 25 000 people. Less than 200 000 employees are registered in Romania (183 500), the Czech Republic (159 100), Sweden (137 900), Hungary (121 600), Greece (114 300), Austria (112, 00), and Portugal (104 100). In 2008, below 2% percentage share was recorded by Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Ireland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Luxembourg, Cyprus, and Malta. 

In 2015, as in 2008, Germany employed the largest number of employees in transport companies among all EU countries (427 100 people). France was second with 332 400 people. 327 900 people were registered in Poland, which puts Poland in third place among all EU countries that employed the largest number of people in transport companies. Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom were fourth, fifth and sixth, respectively, with 313 100, 31 000 and 101. 259 700 employees. Romania, the Czech Republic, and the Netherlands had less than 200 000 employees; 133 000, 121 100 and 115 000, respectively. The following countries employed less than 100,000 people in transport companies: Sweden (78 300), Hungary (70 900), Portugal (63 200), Bulgaria (63 100), Austria (59 600), Belgium (58 000), Lithuania (57 400), Finland (45 000), Slovakia (44 500), Denmark (36 100), Greece (30 200), Latvia (25 600), Ireland (22 800), Slovenia (22 400), Croatia (22 100), Estonia (16 000), Luxembourg (7 400), Cyprus (1 900) and Malta (1 200 ). It can be concluded that the number of employees in transport companies in the EU countries from 2008-2015 decreased by about 40% based on the data presented in Figure 1. Figures 3 and 4 present the shares of individual EU countries in the export and import of cargo in 2018. Based on the data presented in Figures 3 and 4, it can be concluded that the largest share in the EU countries, both in exports and imports of cargo, is held by Germany and the Czech Republic (around 40 and 10%, respectively). The share of other EU countries in exports and imports ranges from approximately 12 to 2%. Slovakia, which is the third country in the ranking of the largest transport of exported cargo (5. 3%), recorded a result of 3. 8% in imports in 2018, which gives it the seventh place among EU countries. Italy, with 4. 9% of exports, is also fourth in terms of imports (6. 4%). A similar situation can be observed in the case of France, which ranks fifth in both exports and imports, with the results of 4. 5 and 4. 2%, respectively. The Netherlands, with a 4. 5% share in exports, ranks fifth, like France, while being in the top three importers of cargo in the EU in 2018 (6. 8%). The United Kingdom ranked sixth in exports (4. 0%), has a small share in the imports of cargo in the EU (1. 7%). The seventhlargest transport of exported cargo is occupied by Hungary (3. 5%), reaching 3. 9% in imports. Lithuania, which obtained 3. 4% in exports, recorded one percentage point less in the share of imports in the EU in 2018. Belgium was ninth in exports and eighth in imports, reaching 3. 2 and 3. 8%, respectively.
section_name: ANALYSIS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ROAD CARGO TRANSPORT IN EU COUNTRIES AND POLAND FROM 2008-2015

section_content: The method of seasonality indicators was used to forecast the volume of cargo transported by road in Poland from 2019-2021. The analysis presented in this paper is based on data for 2008-2018 obtained from the Central Statistical Office database [12]. Additionally, the forecast values for 2019 and 2020 were compared with the real values for 2019 and 2020. In determining the forecasts, an additive model ( 1 ) and a multiplicative model (2), were used. In the case of data that are distinguished by constant fluctuations in the time series, that is, those whose fluctuation amplitude is more or less constant, it was an additive model of absolute seasonal fluctuations. On the other hand, if the data are characterised by relatively constant fluctuations in the time series, that is, those whose fluctuation amplitude changes more or less in the same ratio, it is a multiplicative model of seasonal fluctuations [13] :

where: 0 -constant coefficient; 1 -model parameter; T -time variable; -seasonal fluctuations in the additive model; -seasonal fluctuations in the multiplicative model. 

Table 1 presents the volume of cargo transported by road in Poland in particular quarters from 2008-2018. Afterwards, a regression analysis of the ordered data presented in Table 1 was performed. The value of the coefficient of determination R 2 = 0. 92, while the p-values for the coefficients in the model are less than 0. 05. Therefore, it can be concluded that the choice of the seasonality method was correct as the models were well adjusted to the statistical data. The results of the forecast of the number of cargo transported by road in the particular quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021 along with the values of the real number of cargo transported by road in 2019 and 2020 are presented in Table 3
section_name: FORECAST OF THE NUMBER OF CARGO TRANSPORT IN POLAND

section_name: CONCLUSION

section_content: Figure 7 shows the number of cargo transported by road, real and forecast values for 2019-2021 using the additive and multiplicative model. Based on the presented data, it can be observed that the forecasted values obtained from the additive model are at a similar level to the values for 2008-2018. However, the forecasted values using the multiplicative model are linear, which is not consistent with the real values for 2019. Comparing the forecasted values with the real values, it can be seen that in the case of the first two quarters of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, the forecast may be accurate. However, in the case of the third and fourth quarters of 2019, the values already differ significantly. The lack of data for 2020 in the databases available in Poland (Central Statistical Office) does not allow concluding on whether the model is well suited. Such a comparison will be possible only after the Central Statistical Office publishes the statistical data for 2020. In the case of the second quarter of 2020, a much higher value of the forecast than the real data may result from the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fig. 7. The number of cargo transported by road in particular periods from 2008-2018 in EU countries Source: Authors' research based on data presented in [12] International road cargo transport in Poland and other EU countries 107.

section_content: This article aimed to analyse international road cargo transport in Poland and EU countries from 2008-2018. Based on the analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn:

 The number of employees employed in transport companies in EU countries decreased by about 40% during the analysed period. The reason for the decline in the number of employees may be the technological development that took place in these countries over the last dozen years, which contributed to the elimination of a certain part of the employees;  In Poland, there was a significant increase in the share of road cargo transport from 2008-2018, indicating a significant development of road cargo transport;  The forecasted values of the volume of cargo transport in Poland for 2019-2021, which were determined from the additive and multiplicative model, are at a similar level to the values for 2008-2018;  A comparison of the forecasted values with the real values for 2019 shows that the forecast for the first two quarters is correct. To confirm the correctness of the forecast for the third and fourth quarters, it would be necessary to compare the data for the following years, which will be possible only after the Central Statistical Office provides data for the years 2020 and 2021. However, the COVID-19 pandemic situation that occurred in 2020 probably largely influenced the volume of road cargo transport.
section_name: CONCLUSION