Disrupting a socio-ecological system: How could traditional ecological knowledge be the key to preserving the Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change?

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>         <jats:p>Socio-ecological systems (SESs) hinge on human groups and ecosystems, promoting interdependence and resilience to environmental disturbances. Climate change effects propagate from organisms to biomes, likely influencing SESs. In southern Brazil, the Araucaria Forest is a typical SES due to the historical interaction between humans and biodiversity. Thus, we empirically and theoretically evaluated how climate change could disrupt this system by interviewing 97 smallholders and assessing their traditional ecological knowledge (TEK). We evaluated and measured the socioeconomic impact of the araucaria’s (<jats:italic>Araucaria angustifolia</jats:italic>) nut-like seed (pinhão) trade and the ethnoecological knowledge about climate change, as well as generated an ecosystem services network. We used these empirical data with a projected loss of 50–70% of the Araucaria Forest due to climate change to quantify the risks of the potential disruption of this SES. We found evidence that to avoid the disruption of the Araucaria Forests, it is paramount to value TEK holders, safeguard the historical socio-ecological interaction, and promote non-mutually exclusive measures in an integrative response to maintain the resilience of this forest to future disturbances.</jats:p>

section_content: Climate change effects have been widely described throughout all ecosystems (Malhi et al. 2020 ), from organism to biome levels (Parmesan 2006), affecting the genetics of organisms (e. g., allelic diversity) and the integrity of biomes, such as ecological resilience to disturbances (Bellard et al. 2012 ). These threats also impinge on socio-ecological systems (hereafter SESs), which consist of the integration of local human groups with ecosystems, promoting reciprocal feedbacks, interdependence, and resilience (Folke et al. 2010 ). These local human groups commonly rely on interacting with natural assets and could be represented in Brazil by Indigenous people, local communities (e. g., ribeirinhos, caiçaras), or even small landowners (De Souza et al. 2006 ; Fatorić and Chelleri 2012; Gomes et al. 2018; Tagliari et al. 2021a ). These groups are characterized as holding traditional ecological knowledge (hereafter TEK): a long-term experience based on observation, use, and management of natural resources, which offers a basis for the adaptation and resilience of ecosystems to environmental disturbances, such as climate change (Ladio 2017). 

Ecosystems with continuous interactions between plants and peoples are examples of SESs. For instance, enduring human-plant interactions in the Neotropics contributed to enhancing plant domestication and food security across Amazonia (Levis et al. 2018 ) and the Araucaria Forest in southern Brazil (Cruz et al. 2020 ). The Araucaria Forest, also known as Araucaria Mixed Forest, is an emblematic SES in the subtropical Atlantic Forest region (Tagliari et al. 2021a ). The main plant species in this ecosystem is Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol. ) Kuntze, a tree with a candelabra aspect that is popularly known as araucaria, critically endangered according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and was almost depleted do to extensive and illegal logging in the early to late 20th century (Thomas 2013 ). The species plays a key ecological role in the ecosystem's functioning due to its nut-like seed called pinhão. The nutritious pinhão structures the associate vertebrate consumers spatiotemporally (Oliveira-Filho et al. 2015; Bogoni et al. 2020a ). Furthermore, the species is also valuable due to its ancient connection with Indigenous peoples and local communities (Reis et al., 2014; Robinson et al., 2018 ) that still use and manage pinhão (Adan et al. 2016; Quinteiro et al. 2019). Forest management strategies used by human groups over the last 1400 years expanded the Araucaria Forest beyond its natural boundaries, and some of these landscape modi cations are still visible (Robinson et al. 2018; Cruz et al. 2020). Currently, the traditional management systems of local smallholders do the following: (i) maintain productive forest fragments (Mello and Peroni 2015) ; (ii) promote ecosystem services (Tagliari et al. 2019 ) and temporal food security to local fauna and human groups (Adan et al. 2016 ; Bogoni et al. 2020a ); (iii) preserve cultural, social, and economic dynamics in this SES (Zechini et al. 2018 ; Tagliari et al. 2021a) ; and (iv) maintain the functional diversity of araucaria, especially due to the identi cation of pinhão ethnovarieties thanks to TEK holders (Adan et al. 2016 ; Tagliari and Peroni 2018; Quinteiro et al. 2019 ). These traditional systems managed by TEK holders also boost positive feedbacks that might expand the Araucaria Forest (Tagliari et al. 2021a ). Consequently, araucaria is also classi ed as a "cultural keystone species" (Garibaldi and Turner 2004), since it plays cultural and socio-ecological roles in southern Brazil (Reis et properly indicate what is at stake if climate change disrupts this SES by showing potential losses in ecological, social, and economic aspects. Also, these studies do not consider the historical human-plant interaction and the possibilities to increase resilience to anthropic disturbances (Tagliari et al. 2021a ). We aimed to ll this knowledge gap by approaching one of the main actors behind the SES resilience in the Araucaria Forest, local smallholders, which was done for three main reasons. First, we did this because of their TEK related to araucaria use and management (Mello and (Metzger et al. 2019). Consequently, TEK holders preserve the majority of the native araucaria remnants because, in southern Brazil, 20% of the land on private properties must be retained as native vegetation (Orellana and Vanclay 2018). Third, communities of poor small farmers might be the most vulnerable groups due to global environmental changes (Pyhälä et al. 2016 ). Thus, we depict the aspects within the Araucaria Forest SES that might be at risk due to climate change by looking at a social, economic, ecologic, ethnoecological, and ecosystem services framework. Further, we describe how TEK holders could increase the Araucaria Forest's resilience to climate change. To achieve this framework, we interviewed 97 smallholders throughout the Araucaria Forest. Based on an assessment of their TEK, we systematically describe why this speci c human group might be critical to safeguarding the entire Araucaria SES by maintaining its preservation, ecosystem services, araucaria functional diversity (intraspeci c diversity), socio-ecological interactions, resilience to disturbances and, especially, by helping it avoid disruption from climate change.
section_name: Introduction

section_name: Materials And Methods

section_content: The study was conducted throughout the extent of the original distribution of the Araucaria Forest, where we still nd the interaction between human groups and A. angustifolia (Fig. 1 ). We also revisited areas where this human-plant interaction was previously described (see Adan Tagliari et al. 2021a ). Thus, we gave this human group (i. e., local smallholders and pinhão extractors) a semi-structured questionnaire (Table S1 ). We used the snowball technique (Bernard 2006 ) to nd participants for the semi-structured interviews, where participants recommended people directly involved in araucaria management at the end of the interview. We wanted to include Indigenous peoples as TEK holders, such as the Southern-Jê and Guarani groups, who have shaped the forest composition in southern Brazil (Cruz et al., 2020) ; however, ethical limitations and legal aspects prohibited us from including them in our study. Our research was approved by the ethics committee at the Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (CAEE: 86394518. 0. 0000. 0121), following the code of ethics of the International Society of Ethnobiology.
section_name: Study area

section_content: We de ned two distinct strategies to compile socioeconomic data. First, leaning on our semi-structured interviews, we collected information about the interviewees: gender, age, profession, main crops cultivated, time living on the property, how much the pinhão trade boosts family incomes, and the amount of pinhão (in kg) collected on each property. Second, we used the Sistema IBGE de Recuperação Automática (SIDRA) (https://sidra. ibge. gov. br/home/ipca15/brasil), a public and open-access database from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geogra a e Estatística), to collect several economic indicators and their historical series. We collected two pinhão historical series from 2010 to 2019: (i) the amount of pinhão collected per year (tons), and (ii) the economic value of the annual trade of pinhão (see https://sidra. ibge. gov. br/tabela/289#resultado).
section_name: Socioeconomic data

section_content: To collect ethnoecological data, we also used our semi-structured interviews. We collected information about the use, management, and knowledge of araucaria and its pinhão ethnovarieties. Leaning on smallholders' TEK, we collected evidence of the following: (i) ripening period, abundance, size, and color of pinhão ethnovarieties; (ii) the pinhão ethnovarieties known by each smallholder; (iii) the reproductive phenology and seed production of araucaria trees due to pinhão maturation throughout the year; and (iv) the interviewees' perception about the potential impact of climate change on the Araucaria Forest, especially A. angustifolia. With this information, we created a framework to describe two aspects of araucaria ethnoecology: (i) the ecosystem services provided by araucaria use and management, targeting four potential ecosystem services (provision, regulation, cultural, and support) (following Bogoni et al. 2020a) ; and (ii) how pinhão ethnovariety use and management confer araucaria functional diversity, socio-ecological food security, and the well-being of smallholders under climate change. 

To generate the ecosystem services framework, de ned by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) as the "bene ts people obtain from ecosystems, promoting human well-being" (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005), we created a binary matrix of n-smallholders by m-ecosystem services suggested. The total number of ecosystem services perceived by an interviewee about araucaria use and management was given by the sum of all ecosystem services perceived, following Machado et al. (2019). 

The ecosystem service categories (Bogoni et al. 2020a ) and ecosystem services (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005) that affect the well-being of people are the following: (i) provision (resource for human groups, seed predation, seed dispersal, phytodemographic dynamics); (ii) regulation (climate regulation, disease control, insect pest control, natural disaster control); (iii) cultural (e. g., ethnocultural identity, ecotourism, aesthetics, education); and (iv) support (e. g., nutrient cycling, soil formation, primary production, oxygen). We cross-checked the interviewees' perceptions of ecosystem services with the literature to look for actual or possible ecosystem services provided by the Araucaria Forest system.
section_name: Ethnoecological knowledge from an ecosystem services approach

section_content: To estimate potential losses due to climate change throughout the Araucaria Forest system, we selected the latest peer-reviewed studies that show the impacts of future climate change on the Araucaria Forest (Table 1 ). We combined the studies' projections for 2070 (Castro et
section_name: Quantifying the disruption of the Araucaria Forest system under climate change

section_content: ). Thus, we counted all six projections of area loss and divided them by the total amount of projections (n-projections) to get a value that represents the potential area loss of the Araucaria Forest system due to climate change (see Eq. 1).
section_name: 2011

section_content: Table 1 References selected to estimate the potential threat of climate change to the Araucaria Forest system. We only selected peer-reviewed studies that calculated, under the species distribution modelling approach, the potential loss of climatically suitable areas for araucaria by 2070. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are CO 2 emission scenarios, where RCP 4. 5 is an optimistic scenario that considers an increase mean of 1. 4-1. 8°C by the late twenty-rst century, whereas the RCP 8. 5 is a realistic and pessimistic scenario where mean temperatures are expected to increase by 3 We de ned the average loss of climatically suitable areas to evaluate how climate change could dampen the Araucaria Forest's resilience in the future. Speci cally, we evaluated the potential losses of the entire system by looking at the socioeconomic, ethnoecological, and ecosystem services aspects described above. 

To quantify the disruption of the Araucaria Forest system under climate change scenarios, we analyzed the adjacency matrices of ecosystem services (i. e., the original and those with penalization due to climate change, following 1 ). Furthermore, no more than 10% of the projected distribution of the Araucaria Forest (i. e., currently or in the future) will be encompassed by existing protected areas according to these studies, which only considered Brazilian fully protected and sustainable use protected areas (Proteção Integral and Áreas de Uso Sustentável, respectively). These climatically suitable areas might also be encompassed by private protected areas, such as legal reserves and permanent preservation areas (Reserva Legal and Área de Preservação Permanente), besides Indigenous Territories. Finally, it is expected that the remaining forest will be restrained to more elevated areas.
section_name: ΔSloss

section_content: We recorded 23 local pinhão ethnovarieties based on 320 citations from all participants throughout southern and southeastern Brazil. These ethnovarieties were described by local people (i. e., smallholders and/or pinhão extractors) based on pinhão ripening periods by female araucarias. The cluster dendrogram showed that among the 23 ethnovarieties described by interviewees, seven properly represented the differences or similarities according to the descriptions (i. e., color, shape, ripening period, size, taste), especially the following: (i) 'Macaco', (ii) '25 de Março', (iii) 'São José', (iv) 'Cajuvá', (v) 'Comum', (vi) 'Do Cedo', (vii) and 'Do Tarde' (Fig. S1 ). The most cited pinhão ethnovarieties were the following: (i) 'Macaco' (N = 81 citations), (ii) 'Cajuvá' (N = 80 citations), (iii) 'Comum' (N = 48 citations), (iv) 'Do Cedo' (N = 31 citations), and (v) '25 de Março' (N = 16 citations). Participants cited, on average, three ethnovarieties (52. 5%) and another 25% described four ethnovarieties. The main ethnovarieties described by the participants were said to develop at different times of the year, indicating pinhão production throughout the year, especially from March to December (Fig. 2 ). The ethnovarieties 'Do cedo' and 'Cajuvá' were classi ed as the most abundant, which con rms that pinhão peak production occurs from March to July. 'Macaco' is the rarest ethnovariety according to 67% of interviewees (N = 65). We also recorded some new pinhão ethnovarieties in the study area. Usually, the 'Cajuvá', 'Macaco', 'Do Cedo', and 'Do Tarde' ethnovarieties are commonly described in the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. However, in the municipality of Cunha (Mantiqueira Hills region) the most described ethnovarieties were 'Caiano' and 'Roxo'. 

Interviewees were also asked to describe how they perceive the effects of climate change in the Araucaria Forest. Only eight interviewees did not answer this question, while 91. 75% (n = 89) believe that climate change will somehow impact the ecosystem. Increasing temperatures, whiter winters, and less frost were the main aspects described by 74. 15% (N = 66) of the interviewees as the consequences of climate change. Climate unpredictability, such as anomalous or unstable winter and summer seasons, was also described as one of the main changes perceived throughout the landscape (46% or N = 41). We also asked whether the araucaria tree would be affected by climate change. Among the 89 interviewees, 36 (40. 4%) did not indicate that araucaria will be affected by climate change, while for those who suggested climate change would in uence araucaria (53 interviewees), 50. 1% (N = 27) believe the species will move to colder areas and 35. 8% (N = 19) stated the species will move to higher elevations (see Fig. 4 for a complete description about the perception of smallholders and pinhão extractors).
section_name: Traditional ecological knowledge about pinhão and climate change

section_content: Pinhão extractivism and trade have been an alternative economic resource for smallholder families for at least 3. 5 generations, and 65% of the 97 interviewees declared that pinhão trade contributes R $1000 to R $2500 to their monthly income; this was 1 to 2. 3 times the Brazilian minimum wage in 2018, or US $253. 8 to US $633. 9 in 2019 (i. e., US $1 = R $3. 94), according to the World Bank Indicator ( https://data. worldbank. org/indicator/PA. NUS. FCRF?locations=BR ). For 30% of the interviewees, the pinhão trade is their main annual income source. Typical crops, such as yerba-mate, tobacco, corn and beans, are alternative income resources. Pinhão extraction is mainly done by men (95%, N = 92). Women usually contribute by gathering pinhão under araucaria trees. Family groups might collect up to 10,000 kg of pinhão per year (11. 5% or 11 people). Another 50% (N = 46) commonly collects from 1,000 to 10,000 kg per year. The economic value of the pinhão trade increased from 2010 to 2019 (Table 02 ). The three southern Brazilian states, Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, extract, on average, 7,736,000 kg of pinhão per year. This amount contributes to US $3,803,245, on average, per year in the South Region of Brazil (Table 03 ). In southeastern Brazil, the states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais also bene t from the pinhão trade. Minas Gerais has been increasing pinhão extractivism, collecting 1,126,000 kg per year, totaling US $855,983. 77 per year (Table 3 ). For São Paulo State, both the amount collected and the monetary value of pinhão in the market have increased (Fig. 3 ).
section_name: Socioeconomic bene ts of pinhão extractivism

section_content: The TEK holders' perceptions were grouped into 19 ecosystem services assigned to the following: (i) provision (resource for human groups, seed predation and dispersion, genetic resource, phytodemographic dynamic); (ii) regulation (climate regulation, disease control, insect control, biological control, natural disaster control, pollination); (iii) cultural (ecotourism, ethnocultural identity, aesthetic, education); and (iv) support (soil formation, oxygen and nutrient cycling, primary production). TEK holders identi ed one to 14 ecosystem services (mean 3. 94) among the 4 assigned services. The assigned services (i. e., provision, regulation, cultural, and support) were identi ed almost three times (mean 2. 84) per TEK holder. The most perceived ecosystem services were the following: (i) resource for human groups, due to pinhão use and trade (N = 96); (ii) ethnocultural identity, because of the ethnovariety knowledge and description (N = 76); (iii) climate regulation, due to their perception of araucaria phenology and potential climate change impacts on the ecosystem (N = 75); (iv) phytodemographic dynamics, as a consequence of araucaria occurring in the landscape and its climatic niche (N = 40); and (v) aesthetic, given the interaction of people with the environment based on human perceptions and judgments (N = 24) (see Fig. 5 for a complete description of all perceived ecosystem services). 

The metrics evaluating the ecosystem services scenarios in the present and future projections (2050 and 2070) indicated a decrease in every metric evaluated (Fig. 5 ). The average services degree according to our 97 interviews originally was XĒSd
section_name: Ecosystem services perceptions by TEK holders

section_name: Discussion

section_content: Using the most recent studies about the effects of climate change on A. angustifolia and, consequently, to the entire SES of the Araucaria Forest in Brazil, we showed the main socio-economic, ethnoecological, and ecological aspects that might be at risk during medium-(2050) and long-term (2070) climate change. We found evidence using an ethnoecological approach that smallholders and pinhão extractors, who use, manage, differentiate pinhão ethnovarieties and/or sell pinhão, provide several ecosystem services, socioeconomic bene ts, and potential resilience to disturbances, such as climate change. By undermining this vulnerable group to global change, the entire SES might be doomed. Furthermore, it is paramount to quantitatively understand the effects of biodiversity loss on human well-being under the science of ecosystem services (Bogoni et al. 2020b ), and we provide a valuable contribution using an ecological (Bogoni et al. 2020a ) and 'cultural keystone' (sensu Garibaldi and Turner 2004) species as the main proxy in the Araucaria Forest SES.
section_name: The potential loss of Araucaria Forest due to climate change and its impacts from a holistic perspective

section_content: Besides its umbrella and nurse effects, which structure, increase sapling richness, and promote plant species diversity, regeneration, and development under its canopy (Reis et By identifying the pinhão ethnovarieties and their peak production during the year, which is mainly between March and December, we also suggest that both keystone plant resource aspects, (i) high resource reliability and (ii) resource abundance characteristics, might be a consequence of the historical domestication process of this species by human groups. 'Macaco', on one hand, is usually described as the "rarest" and "smallest" pinhão ethnovariety, but it occurs throughout the year (Adan et al. 2016; Tagliari and Peroni 2018). The most abundant variety ('Cajuvá'), on the other hand, is commonly described as the "biggest" or "tastier" pinhão (Adan et al. 2016; Tagliari and Peroni 2018). We believe that both the reproductive phenology and ethnovariety characteristics of araucaria are consequences of the domestication process and the use of araucaria resources since the time of pre-colonial Amerindians (Cruz et al. 2020), bene ting and structuring both the fauna and ora in the Araucaria Forest system. 

Forest management in the Araucaria Forest system region for the past 1400 years expanded this forest beyond its natural extent in areas with an elevated demography (Robinson et al. 2018 ). We advocate that the current use and knowledge of araucaria ethnovarieties still shape and maintain the productivity and preservation of this ecosystem from a landscape domestication perspective (Reis et al. 2018), where management practices, the species demographic structure, and its genetic diversity reinforce this concept
section_name: Araucaria ethnovarieties as an ecological keystone resource

section_content: The actual human-plant interaction results in economic pro ts not only to local smallholders and pinhão extractors but to an entire network until the nal consumers (Vieira-da-Silva and Miguel 2017). The SIDRA historical series of pinhão trade and consumption (see Tables 1; 2 ) only accounts for the pinhão traded at Brazilian CEASAS (State Supply Centers). However, there is an "informal" market for pinhão that does not involve CEASAS and is not accounted for in the historical series. This informal market is mostly linked to local landowners and people that sell pinhão along Brazilian state highways, which supply markets in Despite the vertiginous increase in the value of pinhão per year in Brazil (Fig. 3b ), which indicates an appreciation of pinhão consumption, the amount collected per year (Fig. 3a ) reveals that pinhão harvesting might be already reaching its limit. The uncontrolled pinhão harvesting is made by smallholders and pinhão extractors exclusively via extractivism. However, uncontrolled pinhão harvesting might be dangerous because there is a critical intensity threshold between 60 and 85% (Fichino et al. 2017). By exceeding this threshold, uncontrolled pinhão harvesting might prevent, in both the short-and long-term, araucaria regeneration, as well as limit and reduce ecosystem services, such as provision (pinhão provisioning), support (primary production), and regulation (carbon sequestration) (Fichino et al. 2017). 2018), and the maintenance or even the expansion of the entire socio-ecological system via positive feedbacks (Tagliari et al. 2021a ). 

Due to climate change, however, TEK holders might be even more vulnerable because of their dependence on climatic conditions (Holland et al. 2017 ). In the Araucaria Forest system, TEK holders usually live under food insecurity, poverty and precarious conditions, reinforcing their socioeconomic vulnerability. 

The imminent impacts of climate change within the Araucaria Forest, especially on A. angustifolia (Castro et al. 2019; Wilson et al. 2019; Marchioro et al. 2020), and the potential cascading effect to the entire socio-ecological system will impact one of the major contributors to the maintenance of this SES. 

We might witness a combination of threats in both the short-and long-term along the Araucaria Forest: unsustainable harvesting, precarious socioeconomic conditions of TEK holders, and the imminent impact of climate change. 

Under climate change, we revealed that the ES provided by the Araucaria Forest will undermine and thus compromise human well-being. For instance, the presumed ecosystem services degree could decline by 69. 7% by 2070. The ecological network of ES perceived by the small landowners based on their TEK could also be threatened due to climate change decreasing all the metrics, such as connectance and nestedness (65% loss on average). The increase in modularity can indicate dense connections within the nodes in every cluster in 2070 but with a sparse connection between different nodes (i. e., the perception of ES could be shared by subgroups of people, but not shared by the group as a whole). Empirical evidence indicates a similar pattern in decline of ES and network rearrangements due to mammal defaunation scenarios (Bogoni et al. 2020b ). Given that the ecological network is a tool to understand, depict and predict ecosystem functioning, species interactions and ecological functions (Boccaletti et al. 2006), the Araucaria Forest SES may be disrupted due to climate change.
section_name: Socioeconomic impact and ecosystem services declines

section_content: Climate change projections and the potential reduction of the distribution of araucaria is a major concern for local communities and their food security. The pinhão from araucaria is a nutrient-rich food resource that contains several minerals (e. g., potassium, phosphorus, and manganese; Barbosa et al. 2019). Since it is a typical regional resource, which guarantees both economic and dietary security to local human groups, strengthening the traditional use and management of local food resources might also preserve local keystone species (Tagliari et al. 2021b ). Also, this would support the maintenance and aesthetic connection of the cultures of peoples, and how human groups perceive and incorporate a sense of belonging with the surrounding environment (Tam and Chan, 2007). Consequently, since climate change might disrupt the araucaria socio-ecological system, there is a necessity to implement strategies to safeguard and preserve this cultural ecosystem (Tam and Chan, 2017). ), as TEK holders also described in this study (Fig. 04 ). Consequently, the rst conservation priorities as a response to climate change are to identify these potential areas and create new protected areas, as well as create RESEX and RDS sustainable use areas.
section_name: Food security and sociocultural interconnection with the Araucaria Forest system

section_content: The second major aspect is targeting the main actors in this socio-ecological system: TEK holders. 

Different potential strategies must be implemented to value this human-plant interaction under the payment for ecosystem services framework: We do not expect to treat TEK holders as a new panacea to ght against climate change. However, especially for socio-ecological systems worldwide, there is a necessity to implement holistic, integrative, and non-mutually exclusive conservation measures using top-down (such as restrictive legislation or strict use protected areas) to bottom-up (such as collaborative management initiatives with traditional human groups, payment for ecosystem services, or sustainable use protected areas) strategies. By using this integrative approach, we might reinforce resilience and adaptive capacity to anthropic disturbances in the Araucaria Forest. Otherwise, if we do not seek an integrative response, this valuable socioecological system might be disrupted by climate change.
section_name: Conclusion

section_content: Figures The reproductive phenology of the main pinhão ethnovarieties during the year. The peak production of the rst ethnovarieties is in March and April ('25 de Março', 'Do Cedo', 'São José'). For the two most cited ethnovarieties -"Cajuvá" and "Macaco" -peak production is from May to July and from August to December. Pinhão production for all varieties (yellow square) occurs from March to December.
section_name: Declarations

section_name: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

section_content: This manuscript is the result of 8 years of listening to, learning from, and discussing with local smallholders and pinhão extractors in southern and southeastern Brazil. We thank them. We hope our research helps stakeholders and politicians recognize this vulnerable traditional group as a cultural heritage in Brazil. The authors thank the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior ( CAPES/Brazil; Finance Code 001 ) for the Ph. D. scholarships given to MMT, JAB, GDB, and APC. JAB is supported by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) (postdoctoral fellowship grants 2018-05970-1 and 2019-11901-5 ). NP thanks the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientí co e Tecnológico (CNPq) for the productivity scholarship ( Process 310443/2015-6 ). Funding The authors thank the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior ( CAPES/Brazil; Finance Code 001 ) for the Ph. D. scholarships given to MMT, JAB, GDB, and APC. JAB is supported by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) postdoctoral fellowship grants 2018-05970-1 and 2019-11901-5. NP thanks CNPq for the productivity scholarship (process 310443/2015-6 ).
section_name: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

section_name: Data Availability

section_name: Competing Interests

section_content: The authors declare no competing interests.
section_name: Competing Interests

section_content: MMT conceived the study. MMT and JAB wrote the original draft of the manuscript and conceived the main statistical analysis. MMT, JAB, GDB, APC, and NP contributed equally to the main aspects of the research: literature review, statistical analysis, and manuscript revisions. All authors edited and approved the manuscript. 

The R code to entirely reproduce the output of this study is available on GitHub: https://github. com/masemuta/disruption_af. Table data are freely available on the SIDRA -IBGEwebsite. Due to ethical aspects, we will provide the ethnoecological data under reasonable request. 

The perceptions of TEK holders about the effect of climate change on araucaria and how this emblematic tree might respond to this disturbance. Semi-structured interviews indicate that TEK holders believe that due to climate change, araucaria might move to more elevated, colder, and moister areas. 

Figure 5 The perceptions of TEK holders (left column) about the ecosystem services (right column) provided by the Araucaria Forest. We represented all answers among the four main ecosystem services that affect the well-being of people: (i) provision (resource for human groups, seed predation, seed dispersal, phytodemographic dynamics); (ii) regulation (climate regulation, disease control, insect pest control, natural disaster control), (iii) cultural (e. g., ethnocultural identity, ecotourism, aesthetics, education); and (iv) support (e. g., nutrient cycling, soil formation, primary production, oxygen); following Bogoni et
section_name: Author Contributions

section_content: This is a list of supplementary les associated with this preprint. Click to download. Supplementarymaterial16042022. docx
section_name: Supplementary Files