VTsIOM opinion poll: how credible is it and who needs it?
Channel: Press Club Belarus
Date: 2021-11-24

Belarusian and Russian media discuss the results of a secretive opinion poll on the political views of the Belarusians allegedly conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) for the Ministry of the Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s dossier.center published this poll for the first time.  VTsIOM itself neither confirmed nor denied the data.

The results don’t look so good for the Kremlin: only 25% support the unification of Belarus and Russia into a single state, the most popular politicians are Viktar Babaryka, Maria Kalesnikava, and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya; Angela Merkel is the most popular politician among the world leaders, the average Vladimir Putin’s and Volodymyr Zelensky’s polling numbers are equal, and Belarusians have a better opinion on Ukraine than they do on Russia. At the same time, 65% of Belarusians are in favour of starting the negotiations between the regime and the opposition, and 59% are in favour of removing Lukashenka from power.

Questions include:

How credible does the VTsIOM opinion poll look like?
Why did this data appear now and what could be the point of leaking it?
What do we know about the opinions of the Belarusians on the issues above from other opinion polls?
Speakers:

Dr Genadz Korshunau, PhD in Sociology, ex-director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, senior analyst at the Center for New Ideas;

Dr Andrei Vardomatsky, Doctor of Sociology, Head of the Belarusian Analytical Workroom;

Dr Ryhor Astapenia, Doctor of Political Science, director of the Belarus Initiative in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, Research Director of the Center for New Ideas;

Dr Oksana Shelest, PhD in Sociology, Analyst at the Center for European Transformation.