f. CE 201 - Climatic Change and Human Strategy by EK Federov
Channel: Ishan Marvel
Date: 2020-12-08

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTSoWRKkWJTYMu6FhrV9JzlNVJaRU4HeI
EK Federov (1910-1981)
Climatic Change and Human Strategy (1979)

1. Introduction
"In recent years both the scientific community and the general public have been increasingly concerned about the possibility that irreversible changes may be taking place in the natural environment, especially in regard to climatic change."
We are still pretty much in the same situation.

"We cannot consider the planet on which we live as an infinitely resilient environment, nor can we consider its resources inexhaustible."
It's about saving the right conditions for human existence, i.e. saving ourselves.

"In such circumstances any mistakes that we make in our assessment of the present and future states of both the natural and the transformed environments are liable to lead to very large cumulative errors."

"Concept of climate": "Both a consequence and a demonstration of the workings of complex processes in the atmosphere, the oceans and on land...over a substantial period of time."
Thus, climatic systems emerge from a complex interaction of various interdependent factors, as in the BUTTERFLY EFFECT.

2. Climatic Change resulting from natural causes
"In the coming decades it seems reasonable to anticipate small climatic changes similar to those that are known to have taken place during the last 100-200 years. In particular, it seems very probable that a warming trend is just beginning in the northern hemisphere; as during the 1930s, this is likely to be most pronounced in the Arctic."

3. Climatic Changes induced by human activity.
"a. The transformation of the land surface of the planet by forest clearance, the ploughing up of the steppes and great plains, land reclamation, man-made construction, etc.
b. Changes in the water balance, as an increasing proportion of river discharge is used for irrigation or to meet industrial needs.
c. The earth-atmosphere heat balance can be changed both by alterations in the transparency of the atmosphere and by direct release of sensible heat as a result of power generation and energy use."

"At present one of the principal effects of man on climate occurs through CO2 emissions resulting from the burning of fossil fuels...enhancing the so-called GREENHOUSE EFFECT."

"Human activity has already led to noticeable but localized changes in some climatic elements...If energy production were to increase by two orders of magnitude the climate will begin to change on the regional and possibly on global scales as well."

4. Deliberate modification of climate
"If we accept that man has in the past has been able to alter the climate without intending to do so, then in principle it should be possible to achieve similar changes deliberately. To do this we would require a quantitative theory of climate in order to design actions on a scale necessary to achieve the desired changes...to make appropriate changes to the mechanism of the atmospheric heat engine." THERMODYNAMICS

"Social and political issues of some significance arise if we consider the possibility of climatic changes occurring in one part of the globe as a result of actions taken in another region."

5. The effects of climatic change on man
"American geographer Huntington believed that the natural environment, and especially climate, determined all the features of economic, technological and cultural life, and that even the social systems of human society reflected this environmental influence."

"Changes in temperature, cloudiness and precipitation are of primary importance to agriculture; temperature changes in different oceanic areas have major effects on fisheries, and so on. The close links between different sectors of the economy in each country, as well as similar links between countries, means that if any single branch of economic life is affected in this way, there will inevitably follow far-reaching consequences for the economy of a large region and even of the whole world."

6. A desirable strategy for mankind
A "long-term program may have to be started in the very near future" with its major elements being:
a. A forecast of climatic changes.
b. Assessment of the consequences of the different types of natural or man-induced climatic changes...closely related to the socio-economic problem.
c. Recommendations on how to avoid the adverse consequences of climatic change, or to avoid such change altogether...But to whom are these recommendations addressed, and who is to implement them?"

"What standpoint should we adopt: that of the individual firm or large corporation, that of the individual citizen, the whole population of a country or, even more widely, on the basis of what is good or bad for all mankind?"

Thus, "we can agree unanimously that mankind should develop an appropriate strategy so that it is prepared for such inevitable changes, and that peace, disarmament and international co-operation provide the foundations for such a strategy."