Europe Needs to Militarize, Prepare for War  (Brussels Morning)
Channel: Sam Vaknin's Musings
Date: 12/06/2023

Column published here: https://brusselsmorning.com/europe-needs-to-militarize/32760/

Europe is faced with a real war, not a cold one. The invasion of Ukraine engendered a domino effect, a vortex which might easily consume countries such as Belarus and Moldova and adversely affect Russia’s neighbors: Romania, Poland, the Baltic states, and Scandinavia’s new NATO members. Even far-flung polities such as Bulgaria and Serbia are bound to be sucked into the maelstrom. 

It is time to prepare for a repeat of the 1930s: increase defense spending, reintroduce conscription, and enhance the production of armaments across the board. We must not repeat the mistakes that helped foster Hitler’s myth of invincibility in 1936-1939: no appeasement this time.

Military expenditures in western and central Europe are a meager $345 billion, a mere 15% of the global total, back to where they were in 1989 and 30% above the spending in 2013. 

But these figures mask a vast disparity: a few countries increased their budgets dramatically (Finland, Lithuania, Sweden, and Poland) while most others are still dragging their feet with pledged hikes stretched over the next decade or so.

All in all, former Soviet bloc countries in eastern Europe more than doubled their military outlays since 2014. Western European ones by and large procrastinated. 

Germany’s defense consumes 1.6% of GDP and is set to rise by a paltry 3-4 billion USD a year until 2030. This kind of incremental footdragging makes a mockery of the West’s commitments and the challenges that it faces. The USA is right to foam at the mouth at the sight of such disloyal malpractice. 

Moreover, universal conscription in most European countries has gone the way of the dodo in the past two decades. Germany suspended it in 2011. Of the 29 members of NATO, only 6 maintain a semblance of compulsory service, however brief. 

Europe must rearm. Europe must maintain standing armies. Europe must design and manufacture all weapons systems and ammunition. In short: Europe must prepare for war, independently of the United States.

Like everything else in that kleptocratic pseudo-state, Russia’s army is a joke. But Russia is vast and unpredictable and China is nothing to snigger at. Their alliance is exceedingly ominous and very reminiscent of the Axis in World War Two. 

Russia is capable of ramping up the production of materiel and of raising an army of millions on a year’s notice. Aided and abetted by rogues like Iran (drones), North Korea (missiles), and an offensive China (credit and access), there is no telling what a future Russia may present to a disbelieving world in terms of military prowess. 

The Russian Federation is a coercive empire with an aggressive imperial and colonial mindset: Europe is its Lebensraum, not Asia. 

As Putin seeks to reconstitute the USSR who could guarantee that he won’t go Stalin’s way and attempt to recoup the former central and east European satellites of that late, unlamented, murderous, and prowling dictatorship?

Europe also needs to form new alliances with Africa, Latin America, and, especially China. Europe has a lot more to offer to China than Russia ever could and if it regains a benign and peaceable foothold in its erstwhile colonies, it could fit snugly into China’s One Belt One Road Initiative. 

Europe should unabashedly bribe China to disengage from Russia. The European Union, Switzerland, and other EEA countries should come up with a structured set of incentives, both economic and political, tied to China’s willingness to limit its interactions with Russia.

Russia is a hopeless recidivist delinquent. The last 700 years prove it beyond any reasonable doubt. Russia should be excommunicated because it is irredeemable. 

Any wasteful attempt to engage Russia in a civil discourse is doomed to fail. Trade with it by all means, but let Europe not pretend that it is either a state or a respectable member of the community of nations.

Some of these lessons Europe should apply to an increasingly jingoistic and authoritarian United States and Israel as well. It is time for Europe to stand on its own two feet and keep bullies at bay, right at home and across the pond.