Israel’s Brinkmanship: after the Elections in 2015
Channel: Sam Vaknin's Musings
Date: 2015-03-20

Q. Netanyahu won the elections in Israel a fourth time in a row. What are the geopolitical implications of this victory?

A. Faced with the prospect of losing the elections to a left-center coalition, The Zionist Union, Binyamin (“Bibi”) Netanyahu, the leader of the right-wing Likud party, cast himself as a radical extremist. He announced that he is opposed to a Palestinian State (the “two-states” solution); that he will continue the policy of settlements in the West Bank and even in east Jerusalem; and he has joined other ultra-rightist politicians in warning against the participation and presence of Israeli Arabs in the political process. These Arabs, who are Israeli citizens, constitute 20% of the population and occupy more than 10% of the seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. They also have a Supreme Court judge who serves as head of the Elections Committee.

Both the US and the EU reacted with alarm to these statements. It is clear that the peace process is now officially dead. The Palestinians will likely press ahead with their attempt via the International Court of Justice to put Israel and its leaders in the dock for war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed during the recent Gaza campaign. A fourth Intifada (uprising) is now in the cards. Israeli atrocities and Palestinian acts of terror will become a daily routine in an increasingly hopeless ambience.

Additionally, partly to divert attention from economic hardship fuelled by a growing income inequality and its attendant social unrest, Israel is surely planning military action against Hizbullah and Islamist rebel groups in Syria. An invasion of Syria and Lebanon is almost guaranteed. Recently, Netanyahu took the unprecedented step of appearing before the US Congress to attack the policy of President Obama regarding Iran’s nuclear program. If an international agreement to constrain Iran’s nuclear activities is not reached by month’s end, Israel will confront Iran one way (cyberwarfare) or another (aerial bombardment coupled with special operations on the ground).

Nothing can stop this scenario from happening. Even if Netanyahu is forced into a coalition with the Zionist Union, he will maintain a firm grip on matters of foreign policy, national security, and defense. He believes that he is the only person capable of leading Israel in these perilous times and he is not likely to relinquish his fundamental view of the world as hostile and inhospitable. Though a suave political operator, his instincts are panicky and aggressive and so is the future of the Middle-East with Netanyahu at Israel’s helm.

Q. Are Europe in general and Macedonia in particular likely to be affected?

A. Ironically, after Israel, Europe will pay the heaviest price for Netanyahu’s victory. Israel’s growing isolation and belligerence and its conflicts with neighbors near and far will generate enormous waves of refugees seeking to traverse Italy and Macedonia on the way to the EU. Many jihadists are known to hide among these illegal immigrants with an aim to sow mayhem and havoc in European cities, public utilities, airports, and infrastructure. 

As Israel disintegrates, human rights abuses will multiply and force the West to consider sanctions against the Netanyahu regime. The fledgling Palestinian State will require massive doses of foreign aid on a regular basis. The standing of the USA in the region depends on its ability and willingness to distance itself from Israel, but, with a Republican Congress, this is not likely to happen. Islamist groups from Iraq to Egypt stand to capitalize on growing anti-American and anti-Zionist sentiments and drive these oil-rich lands into an “Arab Winter” of discontent and mass terrorism. 

One after the other, hitherto stable Arab states and regimes – including Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia - will slide into civil strife, bordering on civil wars. The price of energy products will shoot up again and lead to a deep economic depression in Europe from which it will not recover for many years. Russia – with or without Putin – will resurge and stake claims throughout east Europe and the Baltics. Macedonia’s exports, financial sector, and real economy are not diversified. Macedonia is heavily dependent on the European Union’s well-being. Macedonia would be unable to withstand such external shocks. As usual, Macedonia’s citizens stand to pay the price for the missteps of foreign, far-away powers.