INTERVIEW 🎙️ Thomas Pluta, JP Morgan, Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale - Outlook for  Inflation
Channel: Beryl Elites
Date: 2022-08-02

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Thomas Pluta, Managing Director, Global Head of Linear Rates Trading, JP Morgan
Subadra Rajappa, Head of US Rates Strategy, Societe Generale
Adam Rosenberg, The Beryl Consulting Group

Subadra Rajappa – “The question is how high is inflation going to remain over the next couple of years”

Thomas Pluta – “In response to the high inflation environment, they started a rate hiking cycle, they've tightened policy by 150 bps cumulatively over the last three meetings and we're priced for another 175 to 200 bps by the year end. That'll bring us to around 3.5 percent Fed Funds .. Given everything that we know, as Subadra mentioned, I do expect inflation to start to decline. If however it doesn't decline quite as fast, they might have to raise rates even higher than that but the market is priced for the cycle to peak at around
3.75 percent Fed Funds.”
 
Subadra Rajappa – “If you look at the trajectory for growth, and the Fed's been revising its growth forecast for this year, there's no expectation within the Committee for a recession over the next 12 months but if the fed would raise rates aggressively and get  policy rates to 3.5 to 4.0 percent by the end of the cycle which is sometime in the middle of next year, there's a good chance that we could see a meaningful slowdown in growth over the next 12 to 18 months.” 

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