Analysis of competing hypotheses | Wikipedia audio article
Channel: wikipedia tts
Date: 2019-01-14

This is an audio version of the Wikipedia Article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_competing_hypotheses


00:01:09 1 Process
00:04:10 2 Strengths
00:04:48 3 Weaknesses
00:07:51 3.1 Structured analysis of competing hypotheses
00:08:58 3.2 Other approaches to formalism
00:10:02 4 Automation
00:11:00 5 See also
00:11:09 6 Notes
00:11:18 7 External links



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- Socrates


SUMMARY
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The analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) allegedly provides an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. It was developed by Richards (Dick) J. Heuer, Jr., a 45-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, in the 1970s for use by the Agency. ACH is used by analysts in various fields who make judgments that entail a high risk of error in reasoning. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve.ACH was a step forward in intelligence analysis methodology, but it was first described in relatively informal terms. Producing the best available information from uncertain data remains the goal of researchers, tool-builders, and analysts in industry, academia and government. Their domains include data mining, cognitive psychology and visualization, probability and statistics, etc. Abductive reasoning is an earlier concept with similarities to ACH.