Who is Defeated in Gaza: Israel or Hamas? (Brussels Morning)
Channel: Sam Vaknin's Musings
Date: 2023-11-21

Column here: https://brusselsmorning.com/who-is-defeated-in-gaza-israel-or-hamas/35704/ (Typo: 2-3% should be 20-30%).

Does Khamenei have a point? Has Israel been defeated in Gaza, or at least stymied there? Has the much vaunted offensive boggled down?

Hamas has had three strategic goals in its incursion into Israel on October 7: (1) To provoke a regional war, derail the peace process between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and reassert the Palestinian cause; (2) To capture hostages and trade them for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails; and (3) To humiliate Israel, expose its army as a paper tiger, and do away with its deterrence.

Hamas failed in accomplishing the first goal. Iran’s bombast notwithstanding, it made sure that none of its many proxies declare an all-out war on Israel. Hamas found itself isolated. Many Arab regimes would love to see it go. Again, the Arab states have abandoned the Palestinians to their fate. 

But Hamas did accomplish the second and third targets on its list. And it sucked Israel into a war that it cannot hope to win. No military guerilla group supported by the indigenous people has ever been defeated in battle, let alone eradicated - not even in Vietnam, Cuba, and Afghanistan. 

There is a chance of Hizbullah involvement owing to Israel’s disproportionate reactions to Hizbullah’s initial provocations. Syria may also support Hizbullah sporadically as might the Iran-backed militias there and in Iraq. 

But I doubt that this conflict will involve any other actors. The Palestinians have alienated literally all their supporters over the years. They are political, diplomatic, and military orphans, pawns in the hands of the likes of Qatar, Israel, and Iran.

But, luckily for Hamas, its conflict with Israel is just the latest piece in a much bigger geopolitical realignment. 

With China’s acquiescence and then help, Russia has transformed its invasion of Ukraine into a proxy war with the West. This led to an escalation in conflicts along the fault lines between East and West all over the world, including in the Middle East and soon in Taiwan. 

We are in the throes of a global reordering of power, similar to the period in the 1950s and 1960s when the West tried to contain both the USSR and Communist China. 

But now, the United States is much diminished: it is polarized and paralyzed. Its democracy is threatened from within. It doesn’t even have a regular budget, only stopgap ones. 

The USA can scarcely provide military aid to more than 2 allies or proxies at a time. NATO is underfunded and under-trained. As Ukraine and Israel are going to find out very soon, the West is not a reliable or long-term ally.