Net-zero agricultural methane emissions #climatechange #methane #netzero
Channel: Sean Devine
Date: 2022-10-17

The methane myth. How to manage methane emission to become net zero by 2050
Dr Sean Devine

Most economies use CO2-e, the carbon dioxide emission equivalent, based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP), to characterize the warming of methane compared with carbon dioxide.
But as methane from agriculture recycles, in contrast to carbon dioxide, it only exists in the atmosphere for a few decades, rather than a millennium.  The warming equivalent of methane depends on how much gas is in the atmosphere, not how much is emitted.
Scientists in the field, recognizing the problem, have recently defined a carbon dioxide equivalent of the amount of gas in the atmosphere CO2-e*, or CO2-(we), that is directly related to the temperature increase.  
Using this new approach, I show how to manage methane so, that in warming terms, the gas is net zero at 2050. From a policy perspective, emissions are inputs only, the warming of the level of gas is the atmosphere is the output. This determines the outcome, the increase in global temperature.
If methane emissions for a particular economy are capped at the 2010 level, by capping agricultural production, the atmospheric level will be virtually stable by 2050.  At which time the methane emissions will be net-zero as the amount emitted will equal that removed from the atmosphere due to recycling. Step changes in continuous emissions between 2010 and 2050, need to be reduced to ensure emissions are net-zero at 2050.
While reducing methane emissions will lower the peak global temperature, this will be of little value of carbon dioxide emissions are not trending to net-zero, as the relentless rise of carbon dioxide will cancel any gain.

References
Accumulated emissions see
Smith M.A, et al (2021) Further improvement of warming-equivalent emissions calculation   npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. volume 4, Article number: 19 
CO2-e* and relationship to Temperature.   
Allen et al. (2018), A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 1, 1-8

Related video links 

Blame activism blinds us to the action we must take.  
https://youtu.be/1R18UgFCBso
Realistic action to address Climate Change #ClimateChange, #NotActivism, #RightAction
https://youtu.be/gYdj4uCECWA
the Ukraine war illustrates global hypocrisy denying the reality of what must be done
https://youtu.be/QWYFMjjKydA
Economics made simple
A simple model of an economy - YouTube