Commercial Real Estate Crisis / Problems, Morgan Stanley Lisa Shalett.  Office Vacancy, Jamie Dimon
Channel: DanMarket Investor Channel (DanMarketL)
Date: 2023-04-06

The chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lisa Shalett wrote in a recent report, “… more than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points.”  According to IBISWorld, the office rental vacancy rate is now at 16.9%, which is as high as 2011 during the Global Financial Crisis.  
Regional banks make up 70% to 80% of all new loan originations in CRE.  With CRE depreciating in value and interest rates being much higher, CRE owners and regional banks will be thrown into financial distress.  The CEO of JP Morgan Chase Jamie Dimon wrote in his 4/4 annual shareholder letter that the banking crisis is “not over yet” and could affect the financial services sector "for years to come."  The CRE crisis will certainly exacerbate the problems with the banks.

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