Existential risk from artificial general intelligence | Wikipedia audio article
Channel: wikipedia tts
Date: 2019-01-13

This is an audio version of the Wikipedia Article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence


00:03:24 1 Overview
00:06:53 2 History
00:11:47 3 Basic argument
00:17:03 4 Sources of risk
00:17:13 4.1 Poorly specified goals: "Be careful what you wish for" or the "Sorcerer's Apprentice" scenario
00:22:18 4.2 Difficulties of modifying goal specification after launch
00:23:07 4.3 Instrumental goal convergence: Would a superintelligence just ignore us?
00:26:18 4.4 Orthogonality: Does intelligence inevitably result in moral wisdom?
00:30:50 4.4.1 "Optimization power" vs. normatively thick models of intelligence
00:32:51 4.4.2 Anthropomorphism
00:35:57 4.5 Other sources of risk
00:36:59 5 Timeframe
00:41:00 6 Scenarios
00:46:10 7 Reactions
00:50:27 7.1 Endorsement
00:51:16 7.2 Skepticism
00:54:27 7.3 Indifference
00:55:41 8 Consensus against regulation
00:58:47 9 Organizations
00:59:25 10 See also



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SUMMARY
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Existential risk from artificial general intelligence is the hypothesis that substantial progress in artificial general intelligence (AGI) could someday result in human extinction or some other unrecoverable global catastrophe. For instance, the human species currently dominates other species because the human brain has some distinctive capabilities that other animals lack. If AI surpasses humanity in general intelligence and becomes "superintelligent", then this new superintelligence could become powerful and difficult to control. Just as the fate of the mountain gorilla depends on human goodwill, so might the fate of humanity depend on the actions of a future machine superintelligence.The likelihood of this type of scenario is widely debated, and hinges in part on differing scenarios for future progress in computer science. Once the exclusive domain of science fiction, concerns about superintelligence started to become mainstream in the 2010s, and were popularized by public figures such as Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates, and Elon Musk.One source of concern is that a sudden and unexpected "intelligence explosion" might take an unprepared human race by surprise. For example, in one scenario, the first-generation computer program found able to broadly match the effectiveness of an AI researcher is able to rewrite its algorithms and double its speed or capabilities in six months of massively parallel processing time. The second-generation program is expected to take three months to perform a similar chunk of work, on average; in practice, doubling its own capabilities may take longer if it experiences a mini-"AI winter", or may be quicker if it undergoes a miniature "AI Spring" where ideas from the previous generation are especially easy to mutate into the next generation. In this scenario the system undergoes an unprecedently large number of generations of improvement in a short time interval, jumping from subhuman performance in many areas to superhuman performance in all relevant areas. More broadly, examples like arithmetic and Go show that progress from human-level AI to superhuman ability is sometimes extremely rapid.A second source of concern is that controlling a superintelligent machine (or even instilling it with human-compatible values) may be an even harder problem than naïvely supposed. Some AGI researchers believe that a superintelligence would naturally resist attempts to shut it off, and that preprogramming a superintelligence with complicated human values may be an extremely difficult technical task. In contrast, skeptics such as Facebook's Yann LeCun argue that superintelligent machines will have no desire for self-preservation.