The El - Niño Phenomenon: Complexity and Predictability - Henk A. Dijkstra
Channel: Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (IFISC)
Date: 2019-01-16

- By: Henk A. Dijkstra
- Affiliation: Centre for Complex Systems Studies, University of Utrecht
- Date: 2019-01-16T14:00:00+00:00

 Abstract

The El Ni&amp;ntilde;o variability in the equatorial Tropical Paciﬁc is characterized by sea surface temperature anomalies and associated changes in the atmospheric circulation. Through an enormous observational effort over the last decades, the relevant time scales and spatial patterns of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o are now well documented. In the meantime, a hierarchy of models has been developed to understand the physics of this phenomenon and to make predictions of future El Ni&amp;ntilde;o events. In this presentation a complex systems science oriented approach to El Ni&amp;ntilde;o will be given with a focus on (i) the robust and relevant details of the observations, (ii) the current state of the theory of the variability and (iii) the limiting factors of (and new approaches to improve) the skill of model forecasts.