Edward Ionides: Island filters for inference on metapopulation dynamics
Channel: Centre International de Rencontres Mathématiques
Date: 2020-03-06

Low-dimensional compartment models for biological systems can be fitted to time series data using Monte Carlo particle filter methods. As dimension increases, for example when analyzing a collection of spatially coupled populations, particle filter methods rapidly degenerate. We show that many independent Monte Carlo calculations, each of which does not attempt to solve the filtering problem, can be combined to give a global filtering solution with favorable theoretical scaling properties under a weak coupling condition. The independent Monte Carlo calculations are called islands, and the operation carried out on each island is called adapted simulation, so the complete algorithm is called an adapted simulation island filter. We demonstrate this methodology and some related algorithms on a model for measles transmission within and between cities.

Recording during the meeting "Mathematical Modeling and Statistical Analysis of Infectious Disease Outbreaks" the February 17, 2020 at the Centre International de Rencontres Mathématiques (Marseille, France)

 Filmmaker: Guillaume Hennenfent 

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