Linking archaeological data to demographic models of the Dutch limes
Channel: Recording Archaeology
Date: 2017-02-24

Even while the Dutch river area is among one of the most intensively researched regions in the world, when it comes to estimating its population in the Roman period, the available evidence is difficult to interpret. Previous approaches have departed from either estimates on the basis of settlement densities, or on idealized models of army recruitment and the size of the occupational forces and urban settlement. The demographic processes themselves however have hardly been the subject of study, leading to a largely unexplained model of substantial population increase in the late 1st and early 2nd century, followed by decline in the 3rd century AD.
We have tried to tackle this from two different angles: firstly, we have created a generalized simulation model of household demographics, taking into account historical evidence on mortality and assumed army recruitment rates; and secondly, we have analyzed the archaeological data for chronological accuracy, in order to better understand the population development trends. The simulation models point to various scenarios that can influence long- and short-term population dynamics, in which the biological factors of mortality and fertility are not the only drivers. On the other hand, the archaeological data suggests that the earlier postulated patterns of population growth and decline are real, at least as far as it concerns the observed presence of settlement. Some features in the data may obscure more subtle patterns, such as the abundance of chronologically undistinctive ‘native’ pottery, the lack of well-dated metal finds in many surveys and the scarcity of Late Roman finds that may not just be related to a lower number of people living in the area, but also to reduced material wealth.
Even so, it seems that the observed increases and decreases in settlement density are difficult to explain by natural demographic processes, and hence simulation modelling can be used to further explore possible scenarios.

Philip Verhagen, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam