Communication of Weather Forecasts
Channel: NSF NCAR & UCAR Science Education
Date: 05/03/2015

Weather predictions have improved significantly in recent decades. Yet as recent events such as Superstorm Sandy illustrate, meteorologists still face major challenges in effectively conveying weather forecasts and warning information. Advances in information and communication technology are also rapidly changing how people access, interact with, and share weather-related information. This
presentation will discuss results from recent research studies to understand communication, interpretation, and use of weather forecast and warning information, with an emphasis on improving communication of weather risk and forecast uncertainty. It will focus on interdisciplinary physical-social science research to build empirical understanding of how people conceptualize weather-related risks, how they perceive and interpret different types of forecast and warning information, and how they use information in protective
decisions. First, results will be presented from a nationwide survey examining people's perceptions, interpretations, and uses of weather forecast uncertainty. Results will then be presented from studies of people’s forecast and warning decisions when extreme weather events (such as hurricanes or flash floods) threaten, including their responses to different warning messages. Next, an ongoing project will be described that investigates how interactions among actors and information influence risk interpretations and behavioral responses as a hurricane approaches and arrives, using computational modeling, analysis of social media data, and other methods. Potential implications of the findings for communication of weather and climate information will also be discussed, as well as priority areas for future research.