#Louisville areas #winter weather prediction for 2018
Channel: chieba.progstaff
Date: 2018-11-15

Winter in Louisville will be cold and brutal. These are the signs



Are we heading for a teeth-chattering winter or a warmer-than-usual season, with a side of wet? 

The first official day of winter may not be until Dec. 21, but like squirrels busy burying their nuts, we like to be prepared. And although most meteorologists are skeptical of any forecast that goes past 10 days, we can't help but dabble in the idea that long-range predictions are possible — and often accurate — with a little help from Mother Nature.  

Dubbed "folklore forecasting," it's a time to look at clues Mother Nature is dropping to see what we might be in store for this year. But, to be honest, the 2018-19 winter forecast looks pretty confusing. 

According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, the oldest continuously published periodical in North America, the region of the United States that includes Kentucky and Indiana is in for a "warm and wet" winter. 

On the flip side, the Farmers' Almanac , a similar compilation of long-range forecasts, is warning of a brutal winter ahead — with cold temperatures and snow. 

Keep in mind both these publications got their start at a time when America was an agrarian society and most everyone grew their own food and needed advice on maintaining their crops.

The latest: Stay alert, y'all. Snow could still be coming to Louisville today

Closures: Here are the Louisville-area schools that are delayed or closed

More: Widespread power outages reported in Louisville and Southern Indiana

Icy weather downs trees around Louisville. See the chilling images
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A vehicle drives around downed branches on Lee Street on Thursday morning after freezing rain and sleet moved through the area overnight. Michael Clevenger/Courier Journal
So — which one is more accurate? 

Each almanac claims its predictions are based on "confidential formulas," and while we can't tell you exactly how they come up with their projected long-range forecast, we can tell you some of the things they look for in nature. 

Unlike the Old Farmer's Almanac's predictions, which are made with a combination of animal behaviors and observations of plants, the Farmers' Almanac bases its outlook on a mathematical and astronomical formula that dates back to the 1800s and takes sunspot activity and other astronomical anomalies into account. 

Sounds high tech, right? 

Still, that doesn't help us guess which of the conflicting 2018 winter forecasts to hang our (winter) hat on. Which is why we turn once again to our local expert, because we've learned that for folklore forecasting, there's no one better than meteorologist John Belski.

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Belski has spent more than 40 years observing weather signs with both a scientific eye and one focused on nature. The veteran meteorologist compiled 1,600 weather sayings and graded them A-F in his book, "Backyard Weather Folklore," on how accurate they are at predicting weather trends. Although his book is no longer in print, the weather lore sayings and observations have endured the test of time.

The proof is in the predictions.

In the fall of 2017, Belski noticed larger than usual hedge apples, an abundance of bright red berries on several ornamental bushes, tree moss in an unusual location, and squirrels with extra bushy tails. On a balmy afternoon in October 2017, he warned us to buy a "warm winter coat" to protect us from cold winter weather ahead. 

So Belski wasn't surprised when we came knocking on his door in early November and asked him to head back into his Southern Indiana backyard and look at those same four predictors to see what we might expect this winter.