T-90, Su-30, Mig-35 or J-20? Iran's arms buying and selling list
Channel: Tarsana ترسانة
Date: 2020-12-24

The statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif, which followed the end of this ban, did not come only to contradict these two analytical visions. When the representative of the Iranian government is reassuring its Gulf neighbors by saying that Iran does not want to embark on a regional arms race, he has also aimed at another more prosaic goal. His message was also addressed to his two strategic partners, China and Russia. It is true that the Islamic Republic has reached a high level of self-sufficiency, and that its manufacturers provide it with 85% of its supplies, but even the rich and industrially advanced nations are obliged to supplement their arsenals with foreign supplies. This applies to the great European powers which cannot do without American technological contribution or they depend on the components that their allies sell to them. The Americans themselves buy Israeli components. Even the Russians have collaborated with Italy on the design of their Yak-130 which has a lot in common with the M-346 advanced training and ground support aircraft. In short, if even China needs to acquire defense systems in Russia or elsewhere, Iran cannot escape this rule. Tehran's official position, which says it does not want to embark on an arms race, is not intended to reassure the Gulf monarchies which openly advocate an alliance with Israel. That would make no sense, as these Arab neighbors spend significantly more on their armaments and their defense budgets are about 17 times the defense budget of Iran. The arms race has therefore been taking place for years, given the colossal amounts that Riyadh or Abu-Dhabi, not to mention the other Gulf capitals, are investing. No, this Iranian statement has only one goal, that of telling its two potential suppliers, which are Moscow and Beijing, not to rub their hands too much. The Iranian declaratory maneuver simply seeks to negotiate better. The Russians in particular are not fooled and know exactly what the Iranian Army needs. But the Iranians are skilled negotiators and want above all to obtain technology transfers. Note that I mentioned the Iranian National Army and not the Pasdaran corps in other words, The Guardians Of The Revolution.  The Iranian air forces will continue to rely on their locally manufactured planes such as the Azaraksh or the third generation Saega, to be able to line up hundreds of aircraft and constitute the backbone of the combat aviation. But from now on, they can also supplement their device with a few dozen more advanced imported aircraft, to constitute 4 or 5 elite and air superiority squadrons. It is the same case with tanks, armored troops will always be massively equipped with Zulfiqar or Karrar tanks. The most convincing proof of what I am saying here is the fact that the Iranian army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have ordered 800 locally made tanks, including Karrars. Iran has already presented the Karrar, in March 2017. Al Karrar which means in Arabic and Persian the Assailant), is a sophisticated Iranian amphibious tank and incorporates national technologies. Is it the Mil Mi-28 Night Hunter or the K-52 Aligator, which the Iranians will choose? I have my own idea on this, but I will develop this topic later.
It will be more difficult to answer the question of the choice on the future fighter-bombers, because the open options are much more numerous, Mig-29 or 35, Su-30 or the Sukhoi 35 seem the most obvious competitors on the Russian side. On the Chinese side, the J-20 should be the only aircraft to seduce the Iranians, since the J-11 is only the Chinese copy of the Russian Su-27 SK and that the Iranian engineers are quite capable in the long term, of make a light fighter such as the Chengdu J-10. But here too the question remains to be developed. The unknowns in the equation are also the materials that Iran will be able to export and who will be its customers. Very recently, state and official sources announced the delivery of Iranian weapons to Venezuela, by cargo plane and through Tunisia. Without giving more details on the nature of the cargo. We can however deduce by the choice of the means of transport that it is not about tanks or light submarines. More seriously, it could be Sejil, Fateh-110 or Shahab 3 ballistic missiles putting American territory within range and constituting a real strategic contribution for Caracas, or more modestly Bavar 373 air defense systems or the Sayad.
There are of course other potential customers. It is known that Tehran has long provided free non-state organizations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, Hashd in Iraq or Palestinian Jihad as well as Hamas and many others among which we can cite the Fatimiyouns in Afganistan. But this time it is an agreement between governments and official exports, just like for Syria.