2018 NFL Playoffs: Bold predictions that pave a path for every underdog to win
Channel: COCKTAILS VIDEOS
Date: 2018-01-13

After a Wild Card Weekend that featured four spreads of six points or more, it felt logical to see a bunch of lower spreads for the divisional round games this coming weekend. And yet, here we are, with even bigger spreads than we had last weekend. We have a historical home underdog in the Eagles, the Patriots as yet another double-digit home favorite, the Steelers are a touchdown favorite despite losing to the Jaguars at home once already and the Vikings spread over the Saints is quickly flying up. 

If Vegas is right -- and Vegas is right a lot -- there could be four not-very-close games coming up on the schedule. But football works in funny ways, and very rarely do we get exactly what we expected to see. 

Let's look at some specific paths for the underdogs to make a run at the favorites, to make the weekend spicy and then make some bold predictions as it relates to those underdogs pulling upsets. 

To be clear: these are not my picks. I made my divisional round playoff picks here, and I'm backing the quarterbacks with the experience (a.k.a the favorites). It could totally backfire. Again, football is weird. Let's figure out how these underdogs can win.

Eagles (+3) vs. Falcons
The easiest game to imagine a victory in for the underdog, because the Eagles are at home and they're the No. 1 seed. The difference between the juggernaut Philly team we saw all season and the squad that will play the Falcons is obvious. Nick Foles replaces Carson Wentz. That is a substantial downgrade, especially because of what Wentz was capable of doing on third down and with his ability to extend plays with his legs. Foles is a streaky passer -- he can roll out of bed and throw four picks, but he also is tied for the NFL record for most touchdown passes in a single game (7). 

How do the Eagles win? The weather could help out Philly in a big way here, if the Big Guy upstairs decides to uncork a winter storm over the Philadelphia area on Saturday afternoon. It doesn't look like it's going to be the case right now. But the weather has decided to take quite the dip over the past 24 hours. There's going to be a serious temperature drop on Saturday across the East Coast and the expected high 24 hours ago (48 degrees) is very different from the expected high as of Friday evening (40 degrees). It looks like temps are going to be much closer to freezing than expected.
Couple that with rowdy Eagles fans and this could easily be a brisk and unfriendly playoff atmosphere for the Falcons.

On the field, the Eagles need two things to happen. One, they need to send a wave of pass rushers after Matt Ryan. Fortunately, they have the ability to do that, with Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Derek Barnett and Chris Long creating a killer rotation that can mess with any offensive line. The Falcons are a little banged up in that regard, and Jim Schwartz has done exceptional work creating pressure with his defensive line this year. Turn Ryan over early, either with a strip sack or an interception caused by pressure and it sets up the second angle for the Eagles win.

Offensively, Philly needs to run the ball down Atlanta's throat. The Falcons defense flies around all over the place and has elevated its game the last few weeks. They look like a Super Bowl-caliber defense. But they can be run on. Todd Gurley piled up the rushing yardage with some big breakaway runs in the Rams loss. Jay Ajayi is the x-factor here. If he can produce a bunch of big runs and rip off one or two that end up with him either scoring points or setting up the Eagles in the red zone, the Eagles can utilize their rebound weapons (Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery) to punch the ball in.

If the Eagles get up, they can use the same formula that vaulted them to a strong record early: run the ball downhill and pin ears back in the pass rush. An early Eagles lead would get the crowd frothed and make life difficult for the Falcons.