Will the real Edmonton Oilers please stand up?
Channel: malaga tour
Date: 2016-11-29

GAME DAY 24: Maple Leafs at Oilers
23 games into the 2016-17 season, Edmonton Oilers fans know that their team can generally be described as “improved”, but how good is it really? Is it the squad that went 0-1-1 against the lowly Arizona Coyotes over the weekend? Or is it the club that over its last 5 games has posted a 3-1-1 mark while outscoring its opposition by a combined 19-9? Hang on, maybe it’s the outfit that over its past 10 has posted a  3-6-1 mark for 7 points, tied for the worst in the NHL over that span? No wait, what about the group that blazed to a 9-3-1 start to seize the division lead, a position to which it clings, precariously, right to this day?

The answer, maddeningly, seems to be “all of the above” in what has set up to be a rollercoaster season, which at least includes some ups along with the inevitable downs that have dominated the Decade of Debacle. That corner appears to have been turned.

Even the downs aren’t without hope. Take the most recent 10-game run, where despite the lousy 3-6-1 record the Oilers have actually outscored their opposition 28-27, and outshot them 346-296, a differential of 5 shots per game. This is not a team that gets blown out of the rink anymore. Just three times all year have they been outshot and outscored in the same game, all three times where the Oilers, playing on the road, led in the third period but couldn’t hang on.

On the season, the Oilers rank 7th in the NHL in goals scored per game, tied with the Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins at 2.91 GF/G. In goals against, a respectable 14th at 2.52. Their 31.9 shots per game ranks 5th, and their 30.3 SA/G stands 14th. The much-maligned powerplay is tied for 16th in the league at 17.4%, while the penalty kill is way up in 2nd at 87.7%.


The Oilers are in the top 16 in all six of those key indicators, suggesting this is a playoff-calibre team. Compare and contrast to one season ago, when Edmonton ranked 26th, 27th, 22nd, 26th, 18th, and 18th in those same six departments. Suggesting their improvement from 29th in the overall standings to 10th in points and 14th in points percentage has been fully bought and paid for.

Indeed, if there is a concern it comes in the area of game management, where an inability to finish close games has cost Todd McLellan’s club a few points that should be in the bank already. By far the lion’s share of the games have been decided in the first 50 minutes, but of the six times the Oilers have been in a tie game with 5 minutes to go in regulation, they’ve posted an ugly 1-3-2 record, allowing three game-winners in the dying minutes of the third period and a fourth in overtime. Twice the club went to the shootout, where they split the coin flip. Yielding just 4 standings points out of what rightfully “should” have been 8 or 9. That’s the difference between a fairly comfortable lead in the Pacific vs. a razor-thin 1 or 2 points over the three California teams, all of which hold one game in hand.

The blown games, especially those in regulation, are especially painful in a season where it may well be life-and-death for a playoff position. All three of those regulation losses had a deciding goal that featured both Oilers’ defenceman caught in the same corner, the centre gone AWOL, and a winger left with the responsibility of guarding the net front. In each case the winger — respectively Milan Lucic, Benoit Pouliot, and Jordan Eberle — took the heat for failing in their role as the “last line of defence” but at a certain point one questions how that same scenario can happen repeatedly. 

Worth noting that the Oilers themselves have generated exactly zero goals down the stretch in those six games while allowing five in a shade over 40 minutes of hockey. Indeed, Edmonton has scored just three goals in the combined third periods and overtimes of the 11 losses, a dreadful output in 225 minutes of hockey.

Another issue that has been a thorn in the Oilers’ side has been the performance of the powerplay, which has been something of the canary in the coal mine. In Edmonton’s 12 wins the PP has connected 11 times in 40 opportunities, but in the 11 losses the not-so-special team has posted a sorry 1-for-29 conversion rate, moreover allowed a (critical) shorthanded goal. Basically a full game of hockey with the man advantage, with a 1-1 result on the scoreboard. That too has cost them valuable standings points.