The China Debate 2019: Will China’s Rise be Peaceful? | SOAS University of London
Channel: SOAS University of London
Date: 2019-05-17

The China Debate 2019: Will China’s Rise be Peaceful? was held at the SOAS China Institute, SOAS University of London on 7 May 2019. The panellists were:
 - Moderator: Steve Tsang (SOAS China Institute)
 - David M. Lampton (Johns Hopkins-SAIS and Stanford University)
 - Evan S. Medeiros (Georgetown University)
 - Katherine Morton (University of Sheffield)
 - Zhu Feng (Nanjing University)
Find out more at http://bit.ly/2J8miyN

The rise of China will have a major impact on the world in the 21st century. Graham Allison may or may not be right in arguing that China and the USA are at serious risk of being caught in a ‘Thucydides Trap’, in which an incumbent hegemonic power feels compelled to respond forcefully to a rising new peer competitor, with potentially dire consequences.  The future is not written in stone. Nevertheless, in the light of recent developments, the question of whether China’s rise will prove peaceful has assumed a renewed sense of urgency.

China is poised to generate sufficient capacity to compete with and overtake the USA. The steady and impressive increase in China’s capabilities is matched by President Xi Jinping’s commitment to bring about a national rejuvenation.  The hardening of the US attitude to relations with China under President Donald Trump reflects the emergence of a bipartisan approach in the USA, even if many have reservations about his insouciance to a trade war with China.  Whether China’s rise will be peaceful ultimately depends on a range of variables that will transcend Chinese policy and actions.  It is a known unknown.  But whatever its manifestation, it will shape the future of China, the USA and much of the rest of the world.