Why Should We Shelter In: A Computer Simulation?
Channel: George Yang, MD
Date: 2020-04-24

March 19, 2020: Why Should We Shelter In: A Computer Simulation?    

Computer Simulation of what happens when 1 sick person is in a population of 200 people, and how the movement of people can accelerate spread or significantly slow it down. 

1:45 Doing nothing 
4:12 1 in 4 people move around 
5:58 1 in 8 people move around

Visualizing the big picture makes you think why doesn’t moving sick dot just stop moving so it doesn’t spread to the other dots.   But since we don’t know who exactly has the Coronavirus, one assumption that may helps is to assume we all have it and self-quarantine. This may up the percentage closer to the 75-88% needed to flatten the curve significantly. 

Hi this is Dr. George Yang, I’m a double board certified specialist in Ear Nose and Throat/Head and Neck Surgery and Facial Plastic Surgery, based in New York City. 

In this Coronavirus Pandemic, the help that people need is existential and I will do my best to help with information which will help better explain what the experts mean by “Flatten the curve” why “Sheltering In” will help to do that.

The most visual demonstration of what has happened in other countries, and what will happen here in the United States is from a Washington Post Article entitled. “Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially , and how to “flatten the curve.”  By Harry Stevens on March 14th 2020.  I will post the link in the description below:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

In this article, there are 4 computer simulations of an outbreak showing how quickly it spreads over time, without any social distancing or sheltering in, as well as 75% adopting social distancing vs. 88% adopting social distancing.  

Along the top of the simulation is a graph which shows how many people are Healthy, Sick and Recovered.  It strongly demonstrates the difference between doing nothing (1:45) versus having 1 in 4 people move around (4:12) versus 1 in 8 people move around (5:58) can make in flattening the curve.

In a separate video, I will explain how “flattening the curve” will help in relation to our healthcare system.  Delaying the number of people getting sick will buy time for more testing, Personal Protective Equipment for healthcare workers, for more people to recover and perhaps create a herd immunity and development of vaccines.  

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This is Dr. George Yang signing off, see you on the next video.