CMAF FFT: How traders predict prices and liquidity in the electricity market
Channel: Lancaster CMAF
Date: 2021-11-30

This is the fifth webinar in Season 2 of "Friday Forecasting Talks", hosted by Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting of Lancaster University, UK.
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CMAF webinars: https://cmaf-fft.lp151.com/

-- Contents of this video --------------------------
00:00 - Introduction
01:20 - Summer projects with CMAF
05:00 - Start of the presentation
08:23 - Wholesale energy trading in brief
19:30 - Short-term energy trading intro
21:40 - Key challenges associated with short-term energy data
31:20 - Short-term energy trading strategies
34:10 - Comments and questions by Jethro Browell
48:30 - Q&A. How efficient is the short-term energy market?
50:00 - Using technical analysis effectively
52:00 - Do you use meteorological data for forecasting?
54:05 - How well can you predict the volatility?
56:20 - What do you think about the role of human judgment in forecasting?
58:20 - Are there any Black Swans in the electricity market?
01:00:00 - What are the long term trends in the market?
01:01:45 - Will all power companies in the UK go bankrupt?

Podcast of Brady mentioned in the video: https://inbalance.buzzsprout.com/1715676

Speakers: Chris Regan and Dmitrii Ishutin

The abstract: If you live in the UK, you have probably seen or heard a lot about rising electricity and gas tariffs due to unprecedented volatility in the energy market. Some even compared a surge in gas prices with a rise of Bitcoin. Indeed, the energy market is becoming increasingly volatile, especially as the worldwide economy transitions to Net Zero. Brady develops software that helps energy traders navigate through this volatility wave – protect their positions, reduce risks, and achieve P&L. In this webinar, Chris and Dmitrii from Brady will talk about two predictive models they developed for their customers – price direction prediction and liquidity prediction models. Tune in to learn more about the energy markets!

Bio: Chris Regan is the Product Director at Brady (https://bradytechnologies.com/). He is also engaged in other ventures in the energy industry as the Founder of Energy Trading Advisory, Bain Special Advisor for Power Trading, Former Chair of Energy UK Wholesale Markets sub-committee and Head of Power Trading SWGT. At Brady, Chris is leading on the delivery of a short-term power trading SaaS platform. Brady’s PowerDesk solution will allow energy traders to operate in this new decarbonised, intermittent and decentralised world of energy trading. Chris has a background in Physics and complements this with an MBA from INSEAD.
Dmitrii Ishutin is a Quantitative Analyst at Brady. Dmitrii leads development of the advanced analytics module of Brady’s SaaS product for short-term energy traders – PowerDesk Edge. Dmitrii has over 5 years of energy industry experience. Before Brady, Dmitrii worked at EDF Energy (the largest energy company in the UK) as a trader on the curve trading desk where he managed long-term power and carbon hedging for both consumption and generation arms of EDF. Before that, he was a senior data scientist in the volume forecasting team.

Discussant: Jethro Browell (http://www.jethrobrowell.com/)