Serbia and Bosnia Herzegovina: the war in Ukraine and new risk scenarios in the Western Balkans
Channel: OBC Transeuropa
Date: 2023-06-19

The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation (on February 24th, 2022), has shocked the European continent, calling into question how international relations could enter a possible military escalation, requiring a review of the European collective security, and how the EU enlargement and neighborhood policies in Eastern and Southeastern Europe shall be reviewed today. The effects of war in Ukraine are not only likely to disrupt the parties directly in conflict, but also, they will have repercussions in other areas of the European continent, such as the Western Balkans that have been the focus of stabilization efforts by Italy and the European Union for long. Today, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the risks of destabilization in the Western Balkans are growing, especially due to the Kremlin's traditional sphere of influence in the region.

The study here presented - conducted between January and May 2023, and financed by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation/UAP Unit for Analysis and Policy Planning - aims to analyze the evolution of the situation in the Western Balkans, particularly in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, based on the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, and to identify and understand the new possible risks and fragilities in the area.

The objective of the online seminar is to explore what is the impact of the war in Ukraine and what it may be in the future in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, in consideration of their national political forces and settings, of their civil societies and of the international community. The study results will be presented and debated by some discussants from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.


Opening remarks: Andrea Cascone, Maeci (TBC)

Research findings: Francesco Martino (OBCT) and Anna Ferro (CeSPI)

Discussion:
Sasha Seregina, civic society activist, Belgrade
Denis Džidić, Executive Director, Balkan Investigative Reporting Network Bosnia Herzegovina (BIRN BiH)
Edina Bećirović, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Criminal Justice, Criminology, and Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo
Jovan Teokarević, Professor of Comparative Politics at the Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Belgrade and at College of Europe (Natolin Campus)

Concluding remarks: Luisa Chiodi, Director OBCT