Farmers and Forts in Moesia Inferior: Modelling agricultural strategies on the Danubian Frontier
Channel: Recording Archaeology
Date: 2017-02-24

This project analyzes changing rural settlement patterns in the Lower Danubian Plain from the Late Iron Age through Late Antiquity in order to elucidate the role played by garrison settlements in the economic strategies of peasants living near the Roman frontier. Using GIS, univariate statistical analysis and multivariate equation-based modeling, I interrogate rural landscapes for evidence of agricultural intensification and ancient marketing systems.
Settlements are the most durable traces left behind by rural, non-elites and the landscapes around settlements fundamentally shaped the opportunities and constraints these people faced. By identifying the features that attracted and repelled ancient settlers we can begin to understand the conditions under which settlement decisions were made. Using data collected from published and semi-published archaeological investigations in northern Bulgaria, I compare the productive potential of settlement territories to randomly distributed territories of the same size. I investigate the rural marketing through the concept of market potential – a measure of the total accessibility of marketing opportunities from any given location. I create market potential variables that include forts, exclude them, and include them as a negative influence. I then create a series of logistic regression models, varying only the market potential variables used. By comparing the goodness of fit of these models with one that excludes market potential altogether I can determine whether marketing opportunities influenced rural settlement and, if they did, which variable best approximates the ancient marketing system.
I come to the following conclusions: 1) the security provided by the Roman frontier allowed rural agriculturalists to settle in the most productive locations within the Danubian plain while the collapse of Imperial control at the end of the fourth century drove settlers to occupy less productive, but more defensible landscapes; and 2) Roman peasants sold their produce in small towns and cities, but not military bases.

Eli Weaverdyck, University of California, Berkeley