Tutorial: Some simple climate models, part 2 - stochastic models
Channel: Nils Berglund
Date: 2023-08-13

In this second part of lectures on simple climate models, we look at some stochastic models. This means that we consider models with a random term representing degrees of freedom that are not resolved in the deterministic approximation. We discuss in particular an effect called stochastic resonance, and how one may be able to detect tipping points by analyzing changes in the system's fluctuations. 

Intro: 0:00
Recap - Ice Ages: 0:36
Recap- Climate models: 4:37
Adding noise: 7:13
Stochastic resonance: 11:29
Near a stable state: 17:34
Synchronization regime: 20:57
Stommel's box model: 23:15
Rising variance near tipping points: 27:27
Early transitions and hysteresis: 31:20
What if the AMOC reverts? 33:20

Part 1: https://youtu.be/p6iZ1Gurn-E
Simulation of stochastic resonance:  https://youtu.be/h1eRp0EGOmE
Articles mentioned in the video:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2330577_Pathwise_Description_of_Dynamic_Pitchfork_Bifurcations_With_Additive_Noise
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2329917_A_sample-paths_approach_to_noise-induced_synchronization_Stochastic_resonance_in_a_double-well_potential
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2369741_The_Effect_of_Additive_Noise_on_Dynamical_Hysteresis
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2379789_Metastability_in_simple_climate_models_Pathwise_analysis_of_slowly_driven_Langevin_equations
Monograph: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/1-84628-186-5

Outreach articles (in French):
https://images.math.cnrs.fr/Modeles-simples-du-climat-1.html
https://images.math.cnrs.fr/Modeles-simples-du-climat-2.html
https://images.math.cnrs.fr/Modeles-simples-du-climat-3.html

#climate #climatechange #iceage