Pac 12 latest on TV deal issues... expansion or implosion?
Channel: Winning Cures Everything
Date: 2023-02-17

The Pac-12 Conference is currently in negotiations to secure a new media rights deal. On Monday, February 13, the conference issued a statement announcing that all its member institutions were unified and excited about the future with the new deal that was about to be signed. However, last week, Fox Sports CEO, Eric Shanks, indicated that Fox was not interested in the Pac-12. Furthermore, this week, Amazon was reported to be more interested in saving up for the NBA and NASCAR, leaving the Pac-12 with only one option to offer Amazon, which is one game per week, which it may not pay over market value for. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 wants its top game to be available on linear television for exposure purposes, leaving the 2nd, 3rd, and maybe even the 4th game to be available to a streamer.

Disney CEO, Bob Iger, which owns ESPN, has recently stated that ESPN will have to be more selective in the media rights it purchases. While he did not mention the Pac-12, he highlighted the NBA as the product that they have enjoyed having, and with which they hope to continue partnering. Iger added that ESPN has been selective in the rights that they have purchased, and they will have to become even more selective going forward, meaning that any deal that the Pac-12 gets done with ESPN will likely have to be okay with being on ESPN+ and on late night ESPN.

Reports indicate that CBS & Turner are currently no longer involved in the Pac-12's media rights negotiations, meaning that not even Paramount Plus is on the table. 

Usually, a development like that implies that the deal is close to being concluded with other partners. 

Fox & CBS are either out of the negotiations or not interested, and ESPN is going to be very selective, so they will not overspend, which leaves Apple as one of the only possible bidders that might be willing to spend. However, Apple has not yet ventured into the college sports space, and there is no proof of concept with them at this point. NBC, on the other hand, has opened the bank for the Big Ten Saturday night game and has already secured Notre Dame. The broadcaster could be interested in a USA Network / Peacock streaming package, but there is no indication of that, or how much they might be willing to pay.

My prediction is that the Pac-12 will be forced to give Amazon its top game, and ESPN will get the rest at a bargain price. The schools could end up making about $25-27M off their TV deal, which still makes sense for all of them, especially with College Football Playoff and NCAA Tournament money coming in. However, the situation is fluid, and stability may be achieved for only a few years. If the only potential expansion suitor is the Big 12, the Pac-12 schools could still stay together and easily make up the $5-7M less they'd earn per year than Big 12 schools just by not having to travel all the way to Morgantown and Orlando.

From Thursday 2/16/23 full show: https://youtube.com/live/Fgkwt0l6A7g

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