Uncertainty in Medicine and Base-Rate Neglect
Channel: Belal Al Droubi, MD
Date: 2020-03-26

In medicine, we wrestle with risk-assessment everyday and we are often misinformed in interpreting diagnostic tests and data.
This video sheds some light on the art of statistical reasoning with the aim of making us more rational decision-makers

The recording and editing time for this video's content was 18 hours
Special thanks to Husam Abu hayyeh & Zaki Emad for reviewing this video.

=== Video Contents ===============
0:00 - The Problem at Hand
0:44 - Taxi example of Base-Rate
2:09 - The solution
3:37 - Explaining the Base-Rate
6:29 - Going back to Pharyngitis 
10:03 - How this is relevant in Medicine
12:40 - Fixing our Base-Rate Neglect 

=== References ===============
1- Nelson Essentials of Pediatrics, 9th edition, p. 392 - 394

2- The Harriet Lane Handbook, 21st edition, p.466

3- Davidson's Principles and Practice of Medicine, 23rd edition, p. 252

4- Macleod's Clinical Examination, 14th edition p. 314

5- Shaikh, Nader, Nithya Swaminathan, and Emma G. Hooper. "Accuracy and precision of the signs and symptoms of streptococcal pharyngitis in children: a systematic review." The Journal of pediatrics 160, no. 3 (2012): 487-493.

6- Fine, Andrew M., Victor Nizet, and Kenneth D. Mandl. "Large-scale validation of the Centor and McIsaac scores to predict group A streptococcal pharyngitis." Archives of internal medicine 172, no. 11 (2012): 847-852.

7- Akobeng, Anthony K. "Understanding diagnostic tests 1: sensitivity, specificity and predictive values." Acta paediatrica 96, no. 3 (2007): 338-341.

Belal Al Droubi