Predicting species range dynamics (Damaris Zurell, 210216)
Channel: Modelling in Ecology and Evolution
Date: 2021-03-04

Keynote by Damaris Zurell (Potsdam University and Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany) for the session on the 16st of February 2021.


Title
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Predicting species range dynamics


Abstract
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Understanding and predicting the complex dynamics of range shifting  species and communities is vital for guiding ecosystem management and  policy but is not an easy task. Most assessments and forecasts heavily rely on correlative approaches and ignore transient dynamics mediated through demography, dispersal and evolution. Several dynamic modelling  approaches of varying model complexity have been suggested to overcome  these shortcomings, but technical and data challenges have hitherto prevented more widespread usage. In the seminar, I briefly present different available model frameworks and recent benchmarking results. Further, I will discuss current incentives for advancing these frameworks and achieve more robust scenarios of potential  biodiversity change.