Creomar de Souza, Dharma Political Risk & Strategy. The Emerging Markets Podcast.
Channel: Pequod Advisory Group
Date: 01/11/2019

Creomar de Souza talked to Pequod Advisory Group on a range of topics, including current political risks in Brazil, the governing strategy and capability of President Jair Bolsonaro, and how the political landscape influences the business environment in the country. His interview is part of the Brazil series of The Emerging Markets Podcast.

Although the Brazilian government is committed to opening the economy—with a combination of privatisations, new regulations and concessions— its way of conducting politics can make the implementation of this agenda very difficult. “This government defines itself as liberal conservative, which means liberal in economics and conservative in politics, and it creates a double-edged environment for business”, says Creomar de Souza, founder and CEO of Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, based in Brasilia, Brazil. 

Coalitions have been part and parcel of the modern Brazilian political system. Because of the fragmented nature, and enormous number, of political parties in Brazil, past presidents, traditionally, have shared ministries and other important positions with their political partners to build a congressional base. “In Brazil, it is impossible to establish a government based on only one or two parties. It is necessary for five, ten parties in Congress to run a government properly”, Souza informs.

Timestamps:
0:01:56 - Introduction of Dharma Political Risk
0:03:44 - What is political risk?
0:05:46 - How should investors begin to understand political risk?
0:09:58 - Contemporary Brazilian political history
0:12:53 - Decline of PSBD in 2018 election
0:16:11 - PT era. What underpinned growth?
0:18:24 - Corruption in Brazilian politics
0:20:37 - On Dilma Rousseff
0:24:45 - On coalition building
0:27:29 - Bolsonaro administration strategy
0:32:12 - Governing capability of Bolsonaro administration
0:34:08 - PSL. Ideology. Plan.
0:37:58 - Bolsonaro administration's policies for business and investment
0:40:28 - On Brazil - China relationship
0:42:30 - On VP Hamilton Mourao
0:43:58 - 3 key issues for foreign investors
0:46:42 - Why invest in Brazil.

Read more: https://www.pequodadvisors.co/viewpoints/brazil/confrontational-strategy-may-impede-the-bolsonaro-administration
Pequod Advisory Group: https://www.pequodadvisors.co/

Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5r3TgBYEbq18oQS3d7evqc?si=-hYNwLlUR62gNix4wFch2g
On Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast/creomar-souza-founder-dharma-political-risk-strategy/id1482668283?i=1000453573819

Dharma Political Risk & Strategy: https://dharmapolitics.com.br/
Creomar de Souza: https://twitter.com/CreomarDeSouza

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