Potential impacts of Ukraine-Russia armed conflict on global wheat food security
Channel: CIMMYT WebCast
Date: 20/09/2022

by
Khondoker Mottaleb
Agricultural Economist
Sustainable Agri-Food System Program

Abstract

Violent conflict is a major cause of acute food crises. In 2021, at least 155 million people in 10 countries were severely food insecure and eight of those countries were experiencing armed conflict. On February 24, 2022, an armed conflict between Russian Federation (Russia) and Ukraine escalated. As Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters, this will aggravate the already precarious food security situation in many developing countries by disrupting wheat production and export and by accelerating price hikes in import-dependent developing countries. This study examines the potential impacts of this ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine on wheat price, consumption, and calorie intake from wheat. In doing so, it applies the conditional mixed process estimation procedure using information collected from 163 countries and territories for the years 2016–2019 from online database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The study shows that, on average, a 1% decrease in the global wheat trade could increase the producers’ price of wheat by 1.1%, and a 1% increase in the producers’ price could reduce the yearly per capita wheat consumption by 0.59%, daily calorie intake by 0.54% and protein intake by 0.64% in the sampled countries. Based on this result, the study demonstrates that a 50% reduction in wheat exports by Russia and Ukraine could increase the producers’ price of wheat by 15%, which would induce a reduction in wheat consumption and dietary energy intake by at least 8%. Given recently imposed bans on wheat exports, to avoid a potential food crisis in developing countries, this study makes suggestions for both short- and long-term policies. In the near-term, domestic wheat production can be enhanced by scaling out improved agronomic practices in Asia and Africa by planting modern varieties including heat-tolerant types of wheat and closing the yield gap. This could meet a substantial portion of wheat self-sufficiency goals quickly. In the long run, countries in Africa and East Asia may explore the potentiality of the extension of wheat crops by expanding land area and alternate cropping patterns, following sustainability guidelines to minimize negative impacts on the environment. Strengthening global trade rules to prohibit countries from banning exports of staple foods at the time of crisis unless it is necessary is an additional recommendation. International donor agencies can play a key role in supporting ongoing wheat research and development activities.

 

Khondoker Mottaleb is a Scientist (Agricultural Economist) at Sustainable Agri-Food System Program, CIMMYT, based at El Batan Texcoco, Mexico. Prior joining in CIMMYT in 2013, Khondoker worked in International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Philippines and GRIPS, Tokyo, Japan, as a Postdoctoral Research Fellow. He is an ex-ante impact specialist and his research is mainly evolved in the area of applied microeconomics including households behavior, adoption and impacts under risk and uncertainty, and ex-ante impact assessment of promising agricultural technologies. He earned his MA and PhD degrees in International Development Studies from GRIPS and has MSS and BSS (Hons) Economics degrees from Rajshahi University, Bangladesh.

 

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