11. Climate Change -- Hurricanes, atolls and coral
Channel: potholer54
Date: 2010-11-23

Three more myths, misunderstood by both proponents and critics of climate science: Global Warming means more hurricanes, drowned islands and dead coral reefs. It's not that simple.

Below are the sources for the hurricanes segment. The total list was too long, so I'll post it separately.

1) NBC news report: "Hurricanes and Global Warming Connection" on YouTube

2) "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment"
Webster et al, Science 2005 

3) Half-degree increase in temp leads to approx 40% increase in hurricanes: 
"Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity"
-- Saunders and Lea, Nature 2008

4) 60- to 80- year hurricane cycle responsible for hurricane activity:
"The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications."
Goldenberg et al, Science 2001 

5) Photo of Hurrican Igor showing temperature difference:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=45780

6) Increased wind shear decreases hurricane activity:
 "The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications."
    -- Goldenberg et al, Science 2001 
  and  "Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear 
in model projections of global warming"
            -- G. Vecchi, B. Soden, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007


7) paper postulating fewer tropical storms:

"Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change: A Post-IPCC Assessment"
-- Henderson-Sellers et al, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1998

8) Papers confirming fewer storms:

 "Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear 
in model projections of global warming"
            -- G. Vecchi, B. Soden, 
        Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

"Simulated reduction in Atlantic 
hurricane frequency under 21st century 
warming conditions."
-- Tom Knutson, Nature Geoscience 2008

"Warmer Ocean Could Reduce Number 
Of Atlantic Hurricane Landfalls"
-- Wang et al, Geophysical Research Letters 2008

9) Expert panel paper:
"Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change"
-- Knutson et al, Nature Geoscience 2010

10) 10% increase in wind speed translates to a roughly 60% increase in damage:
"Climate and tropical cyclone activity: A new model"

11) Increase in number and proportion of category 4 and 5 hurricanes:
"Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment"
 -- Webster, Science 2005

12) Nature paper that reached the same conclusion:
"Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years"
 -- K. Emanuel, Nature 2005

13) Global warming a factor in increased sea surface temperatures:
"Global Warming Surpassed Natural Cycles In Fueling 2005 Hurricane"
 -- Trenberth and Shea, Geophysical Research Letters 2006

14) Boston Globe story "Katrina's Real Name" (Boston Globe August 30, 2005)  at:
http://www.boston.com/news/weather/articles/2005/08/30/katrinas_real_name/

15) Fox news report on hurricane inactivity:
"Global Warming No Hurricanes" on YouTube

16) Global Warming = More Hurricanes at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/22/global-warming-more-hurricanes-still-not-happening/