CMAF FFT: Common Forecasting Methods and The Mindset Behind Forecasting
Channel: Lancaster CMAF
Date: 2023-10-23

This is the first webinar in the Season 4 of "Friday Forecasting Talks", hosted by the Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting of Lancaster University, UK.
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*Content of this video*
00:00 - Introduction
03:20 - Start of the presentation
08:03 - The importance of forecasting in planning and decision-making
11:30 - The forecasting workflow
17:16 - A simple example
21:58 - Know your data
25:06 - Data quality
28:04 - Forecasting methods
31:18 - Building forecasting models
35:40 - Forecast quality evaluation
41:33 - The perfect forecaster
43:59 - Forecasting organization and organizational barriers
49:20 - When forecasting fails
52:04 - Q&A: Where would you place human judgment with regards to interpretability and complexity?
56:45 - What is your take on Conformal Prediction Intervals?
58:55 - Any suggestions for forecastability measures?
1:02:07 - How to handle the pressure to make forecasts the same as plans?

The abstract: Forecasting is both an art and a science, involving the prediction of future events through established statistical methods rooted in empirical data, rather than relying on a mystical crystal ball. As data availability grows and our understanding of forecasting methods deepens, the impact of forecasts on decision-making intensifies. A diverse range of phenomena, spanning from retail industry and financial markets to election outcomes and global health supply chain operations, can be subject to predictive analysis. This webinar focuses on forecasting demand for products or services and aims to bring you up to speed with minimal pain, prepare you to learn more, enabling meaningful conversations about forecasting with peers.

Speakers: Stephan Kolassa, Bahman Rostami Tabar and Enno Siemsen

The link to their book: https://dfep.netlify.app/