USB Knowledge Seminar 2016 Andre Roux
Channel: Stellenbosch Business School
Date: 03/02/2016

Speaking at the USB-IFR Business Knowledge Seminar titled South Africa 2016: What lies on the horizon? Prof Roux said that global growth is expected to be somewhat better than last year, but slower that initially expected or hoped. South Africa’s economy will therefore be impacted by slowing investment and consumption growth in emerging economies (especially China), the commodity slump and the slowdown in global trade. The basic forecast is therefore benign growth – slightly better than last year. South Africa’s growth is impacted by the external environment, drought, exchange rate, budget account, current account and household deficits, labour concerns and productivity concerns. Also, Prof Roux’s Household Distress Index is heading upwards. Hence, we can expect tight fiscal and monetary policy, higher interest rates, sluggish consumer spending, and unlikely job creation.