Achieving the Depopulation Dividend: Evidence and Experience From Japan's Shrinking Regions
Channel: Peter Matanle
Date: 2015-09-22

In 2008 Japan became the first Asia-Pacific country to begin shrinking. In the 2020s and 30s South Korea and China will also begin to shrink, and may be accompanied by other countries in East and Southeast Asia. Many sub-national regions within growing countries are also shrinking, presaging a more widespread future depopulation. Japan is a pioneer in experiencing the impacts of depopulation and what is happening there may be instructive for other Asia-Pacific countries as they age and shrink. Depopulation is potentially good news, but it may bring some negative outcomes for affected communities. Can Japan lead Asia-Pacific countries in achieving a 21st century depopulation dividend, whereby the potential benefits of depopulation can be harnessed for a more sustainable future? What evidence is there from Japan’s past and present experience to suggest that a depopulation dividend is occurring? Or is there evidence that contradicts optimistic assumptions about the relationship between, for example, population shrinkage and resource consumption?