Prepare for The New Great Depression of 2021
Channel: The Nomad Economist
Date: 25/01/2021

New Great Depression Coming In 2021 

Economic growth or decline is the result of factors that are larger than any one administration or any one set of policies. Of course, specific policies such as tax changes or regulatory initiatives can help or hurt the economy depending on how they are designed, but they will generally not change the macro-momentum.

A tax increase may be a headwind for growth, but it will not stop a strong economy in its tracks. Likewise, a tax cut or extended unemployment benefits may be a boost for a weak economy, but they will not end a recession single-handedly.

Growth and recession are driven by larger events such as demographics, globalization, war, inflation, deflation and, yes, pandemic. Large changes in fiscal or monetary policy are the only policies that may or may not move the needle.

The recession that began in February 2020 most likely ended in July. There has been no official declaration to that effect from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the private but widely recognized arbiter of business cycles.

Still, given third quarter GDP estimates of 33.1% growth, it is almost certain that the recession is over. While the recession may be over, the new depression is not.


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