Expert Elicitation
Channel: NEON Science
Date: 2020-04-23

This video in our Ecological Forecasting series Melissa Kenney introduces the concept of expert elicitation as a means of generating probabilistic estimates and constructing Bayesian priors. We also discuss the role of experts in interpreting and updating the outputs of ecological forecasts, drawing on the historical example of how expert elicitation has contributed to the production of weather forecasts. In the second half of the video, Mike Dietze joins Melissa in a group discussion about expert elicitation and together lead the class through the example of eliciting a probability distribution for the drive time to the airport.