Russia prepares to implement Ukrainian scenario in Armenia, and war moves to the Caucasus region
Channel: Kanal13
Date: 03/03/2024

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Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, respectively, held two-day consultations in Berlin, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock serving as a mediator. She first met with each of them separately before beginning to negotiate a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the establishment of diplomatic relations. Baerbock believes that peace can be achieved between Azerbaijan and Armenia, while Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that his country had no plans to invade Armenia. However, Armenia continues to distrust its neighbor, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
While diplomats in Berlin sought to reach an agreement, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan proceeded to clarify Yerevan’s relationship with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Speaking in parliament, the Armenian head of government stressed that in 2021, he asked the military bloc what its area of responsibility was in his country. Since there has been no response, the Armenian authorities have frozen their membership in the CSTO and will formalize their decision legally if the situation does not change.
"Pashinyan's behavior is really provocative. He is attempting to provoke Moscow into making harsh diplomatic comments and other impolite actions in order to break off Armenian-Russian relations under this guise. Furthermore, Pashinyan would claim that he did not start the crisis," Vladimir Novikov, chairman of the Institute of CIS Countries' Caucasus Department, told the newspaper. "Most likely, Armenia's prime minister believes that the longer Russia’s military operation in Ukraine lasts, the more issues Russia will face and the less interest it will have in the South Caucasus. As a result, he is seeking additional security guarantors, which can only be Western countries that are unable to accept Yerevan without the latter severing its relations with Moscow," the expert added.
At the same time, Novikov noted that if Yerevan wants to suspend its participation in the CSTO, it must follow a specific legal procedure to do so. As a result, everything Pashinyan says in private has no legal ramifications. However, the expert believes that if Armenia is able to reach a peace treaty with Azerbaijan through one of the Western platforms, it will most certainly quit the CSTO.
"Many Armenians are dissatisfied with the military bloc's failure to protect them during difficult times, and Yerevan is nearing the end of its relationship with this organization," Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus division at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "At the same time, there is no talk of breaking off relations with Russia, but overall Russian-Armenian relations are at an all-time low," he added.
Armenian expert Ara Vardanyan says: "Russia does not hide its intention to leave the region. At the same time, the Armenian authorities use all possible means to provoke Moscow. All this brings us closer to the scenario of Ukraine or Syria."
According to him, if the current trend continues, the future perspective of Armenia seems quite uncertain.

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