Socio-Ecological Responses to a Changing Environment: The Mid-Holocene Elm Decline
Channel: Recording Archaeology
Date: 2019-09-21

The dramatic decline in Elm during the mid-Holocene of north-west Europe has remained a key area of study for archaeologists over the decades, as the mechanisms responsible for this change remain contentious. Current dates for the decline vary spatially, but tend to fall within a range between c.6500 BP and c.5100 BP, although possible isolated events have been dated to as early as c.7300 BP (Grosvenor et al, 2017). Whether the result of climate change, human activity, or disease, the decline occurred in close timing with the transition from hunter-gathering to farming, thus adding further complexity to our understanding of mid-Holocene vegetation changes. Using complexity science modelling techniques, the growth of individual Elm will be simulated within the context of mid-Holocene environments, while also being coupled with human agent interactions, in a suite of agent-based models (ABM’s). These models will help to infer and test the mechanisms of such socio-ecological interactions, while also identifying suitable levels of abstraction for scalable ABM’s. The construction of these socio-ecological models is integrated into the ‘Europe’s Lost Frontiers’ program of simulation, and will form the basis for both human and ecological dynamics for large scale ABM’s using the groups distributed simulation structure. The mechanisms of growth, and interaction will subsequently be parameterised by species, which will allow for the investigation of species interactions within mixed woodlands, coupled with the ever changing social and environmental factors of the early and mid-Holocene landscapes.

(Micheál Edmund Butler, Phil Murgatroyd, Vince Gaffney)