Ask Kyle: Some early thoughts on Lions free agency in 2018
Channel: video show
Date: 2017-12-03

Ask Kyle: Some early thoughts on Lions free agency in 2018

BALTIMORE -- The Lions face Baltimore on Sunday with a chance to improve their chances in the wild card. Or with a loss, probably begin thinking about 2018.

In this week's mailbag, we take a look at the club's playoff chances, how they fare on second down, and how they might proceed in free agency once the season is over. Once again, my deepest gratitude to everyone who participated.

Q: Based on play so far this season, which upcoming FAs will DET most likely let walk or re-sign? -- Kieran_Steckley

A: The biggest free-agent decision will concern the future of Ezekiel Ansah. Detroit needs pass rush help more than anything heading into 2018, and Ansah is the most talented pass rusher on the roster. Then again, Ansah hasn't been himself most of the last two years, grabbing a piece of a sack in just five games. 

Pass rushers with any kind of track record can command a pretty penny, so the Lions are in a tough spot. Do they ante up with Ansah, hoping he recaptures his old form? Or let him go, saving some money but also risking he explodes someplace else?

I don't have a desk in the Lions' front office, so I can't tell you what they're thinking, but a lot will depend on what Bob Quinn believes will be available in free agency and the draft. Consider last season, when he was plotting the future of the offensive line. He let Riley Reiff and Larry Warford go because he believed he could get better at those positions. Then he ponied up big money in free agency for Rick Wagner and T.J. Lang.

If Quinn believes he can reel in help at pass rusher in free agency or (much more economically) the draft, perhaps he cuts Ansah loose. But if he believes it's going to be difficult to get better there, then maybe he opens up the wallet for Ansah. 

There's the franchise tag to consider as well, at roughly $18 million. That's a lot of cheddar for a guy who hasn't been an elite pass rusher in two years, but then again, pass rushers worth a damn are always going to cost a lot. 

There are seven other starters slated to become unrestricted free agents. I'll order them in importance, either to re-sign or find a replacement: Haloti Ngata, Darren Fells, Tahir Whitehead, Tavon Wilson, Travis Swanson, Paul Worrilow and Nevin Lawson.

Here's the rest of the unrestricted free agents, in no particular order: D.J. Hayden, Don Carey, Kasim Edebali, Dwight Freeney, Don Muhlbach, Don Barclay and Nick Bellore. And here are the restricted/exclusive rights free agents: Kerry Hyder, TJ Jones, Bradley Marquez, Brandon Copeland, Christian Ringo, Zach Zenner, Jake Rudock, Kasey Redfern and Rolan Milligan.

Q: Where does the lions offense rank on 2nd down yards to go distance? seems like they must average 2nd and 14 for a first down... -- @LethalSax

A: If my calculations are correct, the Lions average more than 8.5 yards to go on second down. I have no idea where that ranks, since I've got better things to do on a Saturday than compute that number for 31 more teams.* But it can't be good, eh?

While I have the numbers in front me me, here's a breakdown: They've run the ball 89 times on second down (with an average yards to go of about 7), and passed it 137 times (with an average yards to go of more than 9.5). 

They've faced second-and-10 on 55 plays, plus another 50 plays where they needed more than 10 yards. That's 105 plays of second-and-10 or longer, out of 227 total second downs.

In other words: 46.3 percent of the time, Detroit faces a second-and-10 or worse.

* -- Not really. 

Q: What's better, a 9-7 record and a wild card berth, or a 10-6 record with no playoff spot. -- @joshfarrington

A: Obviously making the playoffs is better than winning an additional game that takes you nowhere. Having said that, the Lions have almost no shot of making the playoffs at 9-7. Not with Carolina two games up on Detroit, and Atlanta one game up, and both holding head to head tiebreakers.

The Lions probably have to go 10-6 to make it in, and they just might have to go 11-5. Because don't forget, Seattle is in there too, and a game up on Detroit, and heating up the last few weeks.