Everything you need to know ahead of the Hall of Fame ballot reveal   SweetSpot  ESPN
Channel: Rami Al Shana
Date: 24/01/2018

Hey, at least we’re guaranteed some news on Wednesday: The Hall of Fame will announce the results of the BBWAA election to determine which players from the 33-man ballot will join Jack Morris and Alan Trammell on induction day in Cooperstown on July 29. Here’s a little primer on a few things to watch for.

We know three players will get elected.
The Hall of Fame Tracker that Ryan Thibodaux maintains -- all percentages mentioned are from his work (and as of early Wednesday morning) -- is an invaluable resource, though it also removes some of the drama from the announcement. We know that first-timers Chipper Jones and Jim Thome will easily clear the 75 percent barrier, with Jones recording what could be one of the highest vote totals in history. Chipper is polling at 98.3 percent of the public ballots, a figure that has been exceeded by only four players: Ken Griffey Jr., Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan and Cal Ripken. Don’t read too much into that, as voting rules have changed through the years, but Chipper is a no-brainer Hall of Famer, and his percentage, whatever it ends up being, will reflect that.

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The class of 2018 will be inducted on July 29 in Cooperstown, New York. Jack Morris and Alan Trammell already have been elected from the Modern Era ballot and will be joined by whomever is added from the Baseball Writers' Association of America ballot. More »

I’m a little surprised that Thome is polling at just over 93 percent. Even with his 612 home runs, I figured more voters would have a first-ballot bias against him or dismiss him because he put up his numbers in an era when a lot of sluggers put up big numbers. I thought Thome would get in but maybe by sneaking in with 75 to 80 percent. Instead, it looks like he’ll get around 90 percent (vote totals usually go down from the public totals).

Vladimir Guerrero will also get in, jumping from 71.7 percent his first year to 94.9 percent right now. It appears that some voters did have a first-ballot bias against him.

Two players are waiting nervously for that phone call.
Trevor Hoffman just missed election in 2017, falling short by five votes. When a player gets that close, it usually means automatic election the next year. Hoffman is at just over 78 percent of the public vote, but the private ballots tend to have fewer candidates marked. Last year public voters averaged 8.43 votes per ballot compared with 7.41 for the nonpublic ballots. Hoffman, however, polled slightly higher on the nonpublic ballots (74.2 percent to 72.7 percent). As I write this, Hoffman needs to poll at 70.7 percent on the remaining ballots to get in. It looks like he’ll squeak in and become the sixth reliever elected.

Edgar Martinez is the bigger surprise. He’s poised to make a giant leap in his vote total in his second-to-last appearance on the BBWAA ballot. He was at 58.6 percent last year but now stands at 77.1 percent. Unlike Hoffman, however, Martinez’s nonpublic percentage was much lower last year: just 50 percent, versus 65.9 percent of the public votes. Most of the public voters tend to be active baseball writers still covering the beat in some fashion, voters who are younger and more apt to be aware of Martinez’s strong showing in advanced metrics. Will Martinez get in? One forecast predicted that he would fall one vote short. Even if that happens, the good news -- especially for us Mariners fans -- is that Martinez has climbed from just 27 percent in 2015 to the brink of election with one year remaining on the ballot if he doesn’t get in.