Australian Open 2018 -  Cilic v Federer
Channel: Tey Yomiko
Date: 28/01/2018

AO Analyst: Cilic v Federer

Roger Federer will already have looked at Marin Cilic’s impressive stats in his run to the 2018 Australian Open final … and quickly dismissed them.

They look good on paper. They look good against other players. No longer applicable.

What Cilic did against Vasek Pospisil, Joao Sousa, Ryan Harrison, Pablo Carreno Busta, and the injured duo of Rafael Nadal and Kyle Edmund simply doesn’t apply to the Swiss maestro.

Day 14 preview: One final step

Team Federer will look at those results and diminish their importance for THIS match. Federer has played Cilic nine times since 2008, with Federer leading the head-to-head 8-1. The one victory for the Croatian came at the 2014 US Open (6-3 6-4 6-4), when Cilic is widely regarded as attaining “beast mode” for a full two weeks, slaying everything in his path - Federer included. Nobody was going to beat Cilic that fortnight. Godzilla didn’t stand a chance.

Beast mode was four plus years ago. Doesn’t apply anymore. Don’t care.
Roger Federer will win the 2018 final against Marin Cilic on Sunday night because he is the better player - IN. THIS. MATCH-UP.

There are 126 other players in the draw that you would feel comfortable making the 6’6” Croatian the favourite against with his current form. 

Ever heard of Kryptonite? In this instance, it’s mined in Switzerland. 

What Cilic does incredibly well, what has brought him to the final, does not automatically punch his passport for a rinse and repeat against Federer.

Take the 2017 Wimbledon final for example, which Federer won 6-3 6-1 6-4. Cilic had bombed 130 aces in six matches to reach the final, including 25 against Sam Querrey in the semifinal. Cilic only mustered five in the final against Federer. 
Everything broke down for the Croatian when he saw the Swiss on the other side of the net. Cilic averaged putting 70 per cent of his returns in play in six matches to the final. He only put 47 per cent back into the court against Federer in the final. 

Coincidentally, Cilic is putting exactly 70 per cent of his returns in the court in his run to the 2018 Australian Open final. If that falls below 50 per cent, like Wimbledon, Cilic is toast.

In the three previous matches at Wimbledon before facing Federer, Cilic won an impressive 80 per cent (52/65) of his net points. In the final, he won 52 per cent (12/23).

So let’s flip to the other side of the coin. 

If Cilic does pull off a miraculous win, how will he do it?

Firstly, he will need make a bucket load of first serves. The 56 per cent he made against Edmund won’t cut it. The 67 per cent he made against Nadal will. Secondly, he will need to convert basically every break point he sees. He only won 26 per cent (5/19) against Nadal. Not nearly good enough. 

He will have to completely take the net away from Federer. Against Nadal, Cilic won a solid 74 per cent (35/47) at net. That shows promise for the Croatian. Own the net by getting there first.

If everything plays out according to script, Federer wins Sunday night in Melbourne. 

Cilic will be well served by completely ignoring almost all of their past encounters. Watch the video replay of the 2014 encounter in the Big Apple, and come swinging. Passive play doesn’t ever work well against Federer on the big stage. 

Swing big, and then swing bigger again. Make a haymaker or two land, and you are in with a fighting chance. 
Angelique Kerber,
Simona Halep Advance,
Semifinals,
Australian Open 2018,
Australian Open,
2018 Australian Open,
AO Day,
AO Day 01,
AO Day 02,
AO Day 03,
AO Day 04,
Mertens' rise to stardom no fluke,
Sandgren: "It Was Amazing",
Still Perfect! Marach/Pavic Edge Into Australian Open SFs,

Federer vs. Berdych,
From Milan To Melbourne, Chung Keeps Surging,
Federer, Berdych ,
joy, Babos,Mladenovic,

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL8c-enNLOhBmoqNIUpY1QMQszVfc3yLT-