Underestimating Learning by Doing

Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add Paper to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access to this page indefinitely Copy URL Underestimating Learning by Doing 26 Pages Posted: 12 Oct 2021 See all articles by Samantha HornSamantha HornCarnegie Mellon UniversityGeorge LoewensteinCarnegie Mellon University - Department of Social and Decision Sciences Date Written: October 12, 2021 Abstract Many economic decisions, such as whether to invest in developing new skills, change professions, or purchase a new technology, benefit from accurate estimation of skill acquisition. We examine the accuracy of such predictions by having experimental participants predict the speed at which they will master an unfamiliar task. The first experiment finds systematic underestimation of learning, even after multiple rounds of performance feedback. Replicating earlier findings by psychologists, we observe an abrupt drop in confidence, from overconfidence to underconfidence, following initial task experience. The second experiment shows that underpredicting learning leads decision makers to make choices that lower average payoffs. Keywords: learning, beliefs, forecasting JEL Classification: C91, D83, D91 Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation Horn, Samantha and Loewenstein, George F., Underestimating Learning by Doing (October 12, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3941441 Samantha Horn (Contact Author) Carnegie Mellon University ( email ) Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890United States George F. Loewenstein Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Social and Decision Sciences ( email ) Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890United States412-268-8787 (Phone)412-268-6938 (Fax) Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN? Place job opening Paper statistics Downloads 64 Abstract Views 524 rank 508,613 PlumX Metrics Related eJournals Pedagogy eJournal Follow Pedagogy eJournal Subscribe to this fee journal for more curated articles on this topic FOLLOWERS 8,841 PAPERS 4,164 Behavioral & Experimental Economics eJournal Follow Behavioral & Experimental Economics eJournal Subscribe to this fee journal for more curated articles on this topic FOLLOWERS 1,017 PAPERS 17,319 This Journal is curated by: Victor Ricciardi at Washington and Lee University Cognitive Psychology eJournal Follow Cognitive Psychology eJournal Subscribe to this free journal for more curated articles on this topic FOLLOWERS 144 PAPERS 3,015 Feedback Feedback to SSRN Feedback (required) Email (required) Submit If you need immediate assistance, call 877-SSRNHelp (877 777 6435) in the United States, or +1 212 448 2500 outside of the United States, 8:30AM to 6:00PM U.S. Eastern, Monday - Friday. Submit a Paper Section 508 Text Only Pages SSRN Quick Links SSRN Solutions Research Paper Series Conference Papers Partners in Publishing Jobs & Announcements Newsletter Sign Up SSRN Rankings Top Papers Top Authors Top Organizations About SSRN SSRN Objectives Network Directors Presidential Letter Announcements Contact us FAQs Copyright Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy We use cookies to help provide and enhance our service and tailor content. To learn more, visit Cookie Settings. This page was processed by aws-apollo1 in 0.156 seconds