Generative Artificial Intelligence in Education: Discussions and Forecasts

The purpose of the study is to predict possible trends in the impact of generative artificial intelligence, in particular ChatGPT technologies, on education. Predictive estimates are formed on the basis of expert discussions of the consequences of using these digital technologies in education, which are currently going on in the public space and in the scientific community. The main groups of expert opinions and scientific approaches are being identified and compared, which makes it possible to present a perspective vision of the processes of integrating generative artificial intelligence into education. Analysis and forecasting are mostly carried out on the example of the practice by using generative artificial intelligence in higher education, however, the main provisions and conclusions can be extrapolated to other levels of education. Materials and methods. In the course of the study, methods of qualitative analysis of expert opinions presented in the public space (in the media, social networks, on the websites of educational organizations and analytical agencies, in public speeches), as well as methods of meaningful analysis of scientific publications, were used. Grouping and classification of expert opinions and scientific approaches were carried out. The analysis also used the results of a sociological study conducted by means of online survey of students from the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics on a sample of more than 3 thousand people. Methods of social forecasting were used to form predictive estimates. Results. The analysis made it possible to conclude that public discourse on employing generative artificial intelligence in education is controversial. Five groups of expert opinions were identified regarding the impact of generative artificial intelligence on education, which differ as to the need for its use in educational organizations and the scope of educational transformations that can occur under its influence. The analysis of scientific discussions showed that scientific community has not finally determined the consequences of the practical impact of generative artificial intelligence on the field of education. At the same time, possible promising areas and problem areas of its use are being identified, as well as its potential to initiate new reforms in education. The following possible trends in the integration of generative artificial intelligence into education are predicted: gradual change in the paradigm of education towards creativity-oriented education; increase of the share and scope of using artificial intelligence technologies in education; formation of new legal and ethical standards governing the use of generative artificial intelligence in education; increasing the importance and changing the role of the lecturer. Conclusions. Generative artificial intelligence has all the potential for solving long-term tasks of developing education. However, rapid technological development is inevitably associated with numerous risks, which require the creation of a methodology for using generative artificial intelligence in education, improvement of regulatory framework and solution of ethical problems. A new qualitative level of integration of a human being and artificial intelligence in the educational sphere is the thing of the future. Such integration will contribute to improving the quality of human capital in line with rapidly developing technologies of 5.0 Industrial Revolution.