9 Making optimal strategic decisions in conditions of weakly structured systems using cognitive modeling techniques

ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS AT THE MACRO AND MICRO LEVELS The section studies the processes of making managerial decisions using the cognitive modeling methodology, which, given the prevalence of qualitative decision-making criteria, allows to ensure the achievement of strategic goals, taking into account the similarities and differences in the influence of factors on the strategic process. Based on the results of the study, the main stages of building a cognitive model were identified, key concepts were identified and a cognitive graph was built for the strategic behavior of enterprise, taking into account the current situation for the subject of the state and the market. The aim of this research was to build a cognitive model of managerial decision-making in conditions of semi-structured systems, subdued by the polymorphic influence of the functioning environment. To achieve this aim, the methods of theoretical analysis, generalization and systematization were used – to build an algorithm for the application of cognitive modeling of strategic management; graphic and tabular methods – for a visual presentation of statistical material, visualization of the obtained theoretical and practical provisions; cognitive modeling – to formalize decision-making processes in the field of strategic management by building a cognitive map. In the course of the study, the relevance of the use of cognitive modeling to substantiate optimal strategic decisions in the conditions of management systems operating on the uncertainty and polymorphism of the environment and the factors that form it was determined. It is proved that the strategic management process meets the requirements for semi-structured systems, the advantages of the cognitive modeling methodology for the strategic process are determined on the example of the situation of production of strategic changes. The construction of a cognitive map (graph) of the process of making strategic decisions in the field of production of strategic changes at mining and processing enterprises, taking into account the following concepts: goals of strategic changes; the goals of the enterprise strategy implementation; the duration of the change lag; the level of encouragement of the team of changes; threshold opportunities for strategic change; unique opportunities for strategic change; average opportunities for strategic change; sufficiency of the potential for strategic changes; resistance to change; fiduciary corporate culture. The target concepts in the model define the goals of strategic changes and the goals of the enterprise strategy. All other concepts of the model are defined as unmanageable. The applied nature of the proposed methodology is justified by its practical application based on the actual data of the implementation of the strategic process in the conditions of the mining and processing industry of Ukraine. Based on the results of modeling the influence of the indicators of the cognitive model on the factors of managing strategic changes, it is recommended to take priority into account in the course of the implementation of managerial impact: the duration of the lag of strategic changes; threshold level of opportunities for strategic change; the laughter of the change team. The strengths of the application of the cognitive modeling methodology for making optimal managerial decisions are determined by its universality and the possibility of taking into account subjective models of managerial situations and managerial activity in general, built on the professional (cognitive) experience of the person making a managerial decision.