Convergent evolution and trend prediction of carbon emission efficiency in China's tourism industry

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 中国旅游业碳排放效率趋同演变及其趋势预测 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202108102207 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家社会科学基金青年基金项目(19CGL030) Convergent evolution and trend prediction of carbon emission efficiency in China's tourism industry Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:低碳旅游是实现旅游业可持续发展的必然之路,准确把握中国旅游业碳排放效率趋同演变及其发展趋势,对中国"双碳"目标的实现具有重要的意义。基于超效率-SBM模型对2009-2019年中国旅游业碳排放效率科学测度,再采用空间自相关分析与时空Markov链,检验其趋同效应并深入探析其时空趋同特征,最后结合Markov链的无限分布矩阵,科学预测中国旅游业碳排放效率的发展趋势。结果表明:(1)时间特征上,2009-2019年中国旅游业碳排放效率呈"过山车式"波动上升态势,东部效率均值大于西部大于中部。研究期内效率均呈显著的俱乐部趋同分布,从2009-2014年偏向于较低效率"单峰"趋同向2015-2019年偏向于低效率和高效率的"双峰"趋同演变,且相邻效率等级俱乐部更容易发生转移,其中后期比前期的俱乐部趋同效应更强。(2)空间特征上,不同空间滞后条件下,中国旅游业碳排放效率均呈显著的俱乐部趋同分布,但趋同程度随滞后水平的提升有所减弱。空间滞后水平越高,效率向上转移可能性越大。(3)省域效率转移上,大多中西部省份效率保持平稳,但部分沿海发达省份和西部省份实现向上转移,仅少数中东部省份向下转移。(4)省域及邻域效率转移上,大多数省域与其邻域保持相同的转移方向,其中中西部省份处于"近墨者黑"的困境,少数东部沿海和西南省市摆脱邻域效率"下滑"陷阱,实现向上转移.(5)发展趋势上,未来中国旅游业碳排放效率将整体有所提升,空间分布由"双峰"向"单峰"趋同演变,但仍聚类于较低效率趋同。随着空间滞后水平的提升,俱乐部趋同程度有所减弱,但趋同质量显著提升。最后本文提出针对性地建议,以期促进中国旅游业的可持续发展,助推"双碳"目标的实现。 Abstract:Low-carbon tourism is an inevitable way to realize the sustainable development of tourism. Accurately grasping the convergence characteristic and development trend of China's tourism carbon emission efficiency are of great significance to realization of China's "dual carbon" goal. This paper is based on the Super-SBM model to scientifically measure the carbon emission efficiency of China's tourism industry from 2009 to 2019. Then, the spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal Markov chain were used to test its convergence effect and in-depth analysis of its temporal and spatial convergence characteristics. Finally, combined with the infinite distribution matrix of the Markov chain, we scientifically predicted the development trend of China's tourism carbon emission efficiency. The result shows that: (1) In terms of time characteristics, the carbon emission efficiency of China's tourism industry has fluctuated and increased in a "roller coaster style" from 2009 to 2019. The eastern region has the highest average efficiency, followed by the western and finally the central region. During the study period, the efficiency showed a significant club convergence distribution, from a "single peak" distribution biased towards lower efficiency in 2009-2014 to a "double peak" distribution biased towards low efficiency and high efficiency in 2015-2019, and clubs with adjacent efficiency levels are more likely to transfer, and the later period is stronger than the earlier period of club convergence effect. (2) In terms of spatial characteristics, under different spatial lag conditions, the carbon emission efficiency of China's tourism industry has a significant club convergence distribution, but the degree of convergence has weakened as the lag level increases. The higher the level of spatial lag, the greater the possibility of an upward shift in efficiency. (3) In terms of provincial efficiency transfer, the efficiency of most central and western provinces remained stable, but some developed coastal provinces and western provinces achieved upward transfer, and only a few central and eastern provinces transferred downward. (4) In terms of the efficiency transfer of provinces and neighbors, most provinces and their neighbors maintain the same transfer direction. Among them, the central and western provinces are in the "with the bad, it also goes bad" situation, and a few eastern coastal and southwestern provinces get rid of the trap of decline in their neighborhoods and realized upward shifts. (5) In terms of the development trend, in the future, the overall carbon emission efficiency of China's tourism industry will be improved, and the spatial distribution will evolve from a "double peak" to a "single peak", but it will still be clustered towards lower efficiency. With the increase in the level of spatial lag, the degree of club convergence has weakened, but the quality of convergence has improved significantly. Finally, this article puts forward specific suggestions in order to promote the sustainable development of China's tourism industry and promote the realization of the "dual carbon" goal. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献