FORMULA: A Deep Learning Approach for Rare Alarms Predictions in Industrial Equipment

Predictive Maintenance technologies are particularly appealing for Industrial Equipment producers, as they pave the way to the selling of high added-value services and customized maintenance plans. However, standard Predictive Maintenance approaches assume the availability of sensor measurements, and the costs associated with adding sensors or remotely accessing sensor readings may discourage the development of such technologies. In this context, Alarm Forecasting can be very useful as it represents a low-cost alternative or helpful support to sensor-based Predictive Maintenance. In this work, we propose a new formulation for the Alarm Forecasting problem, framed as a multi-label classification task. We present a novel deep learning-based approach called FORMULA (alarm FORecasting in MUlti-LAbel setting). FORMULA leverages Transformer, a popular Neural Network architecture in the field of Natural Language Processing. To cope with alarm imbalance, we draw inspiration from Segmentation and Object Detection. Thus, FORMULA is trained by minimizing the Weighted Focal Loss, which turns out to be very effective in predicting rare alarms. These alarms, even if they are difficult to predict by nature, often are business-critical. We assess the proposed approach on a representative real-world problem from the packaging industry. In particular, we show that it outperforms not only classic multilabel techniques but also models based on recurrent neural networks. As regards the latter, the proposed approach also exhibits a lower computational burden, both in terms of training time and model size. To foster research in the field and reproducibility, we also publicly share the alarm logs dataset and the code used to perform the experiments. <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Note to Practitioners</i> —This paper was motivated by the problem of monitoring equipment in the scenario of dairy products packaging, under the mild assumption that logs of the alarm generated by the packaging machines are available. This paper proposes an alarm forecasting algorithm. Its goal is to predict if any alarm will occur in the future, based only on past alarm logs. The limits of the considered future window can be defined arbitrarily, so there is enough time to perform corrective actions. Thus, the proposed approach aims to prevent unexpected downtime that would not only hinder productivity but also imply significant material waste. The proposed approach leverages methodologies from Natural Language Processing and Object Detection to deal with rare alarms that are often very informative in the industrial scenario. Besides, both the code and the real-world industrial datasets used to evaluate the methodology are available publicly. Currently, the proposed approach only uses alarm logs. Especially in the context of Industry 4.0, where many sensory data may be available, this is a limitation. Thus, the described approach might be extended by integrating alarm logs with sensory data. This integration is expected to improve the estimation of equipment health state. The results described in this paper may find application not only in the manufacturing sector but also in different areas such as Cyber Security, where log files keep activity records of each process performed.