Algeria’s Elusive Quest Towards Economic Prosperity and Democracy

Algeria’s Elusive Quest Towards Economic Prosperity and Democracy Mohammed Akacem (bio) Introduction In past essays1, the author speculated that the government at the time was “running out of “easy” options” and it was urgent to undertake some bold decisions. Twenty-five years later, Algeria is still in search for an exit from the “status quo” while confronting a much more difficult economic and political environment. The more the cost of adjustment in both the political and economic spheres grows, the more reforms are delayed. Now that the general population has expressed its opposition to the status quo by peacefully marching every Friday for over 110 weeks2, the exit options become more complicated. There is no easy way out, but it may be time to seriously consider bold policy options given the massive rejection of the status quo. On the economic front alone, the current Brent oil price is around $66.84 dollars a barrel3 while the breakeven oil price needed for Algeria to balance [End Page 25] its budget in 2021 is 169 dollars4. Meanwhile, youth unemployment keeps breaking new records and in 2017 reached5 39 % even surpassing that of the whole MENA region (30%). No country’s youth can tolerate such high rates of unemployment and not demand change. Students are demanding such change every Tuesday by marching and making their views known. On the political front, the masses have rejected not only the status quo but the whole current system of government as well all the old guard. It is a generational shift that needs to be addressed. Algeria is not different from the other oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in terms of the political as well as economic space. The literature has dwelled on the presence of the oil riches as a factor in the delay- or absence- of political and economic reforms as well as the dismal performance of the region. This article rejects this interpretation and will explore options that could lead to a peaceful transition out of the current morass in Algeria. It will require the country to adopt a new paradigm and the courage to divorce itself from the dependence on oil and to shed old beliefs. How Algeria Got Here Ironically, Algeria may not have experienced the current upheavals had former President Bouteflika not sought a fifth term in office despite being incapacitated for several years6. In April 2019, he was forced to resign by the millions who marched and insisted on a complete overhaul of the government. They demanded that the “système degage” or doing away with the present government and all its remnants. As The Economist noted Bouteflika was sure to win a fifth term given how ‘stage-managed” the election was going to be7. Daring to try for another mandate was too much and on February 22, 2019, people flooded the streets demanding an end to the status quo. The Financial Times added that: [End Page 26] “…there is a moment when the insult becomes too humiliating, even for those who are accustomed to pain. Algerians have reached that moment8.” Term limits it seems, is a foreign concept in Algeria and in much of the Arab world. Seven months later, the demands have not changed and on Fridays and Tuesdays, citizens and then students marched repeating their call for a new government without any of the remnants of the old guard. This is unprecedented in Algeria- or anywhere in the Arab world for that matter-to have peaceful marches that last this long and that insist on democracy, a civilian government with an independent judiciary, an end to corruption, a free press and all the requirements of a free society. The election that was scheduled for July 4, 2019 never took place and was instead postponed to the end of the year. Complicating the state of affairs prior to the election is the lack of leader(s) that represent the protest movement (Hirak). Among the many demands by the movement, one constant is that the current “system” needs to clear out. The Algerian press reported several incidents where cabinet ministers and even the...