From: rebrooks@earthlink.net
To: rebrooks@rbac.com
Date: 2002-02-13 18:12:56+00:00
Subject: GPCM News: 2/13/02: EEA Says Demand Will Rise More Slowly: Pakistan
 -Afghanistan Plan Gas Pipeline: Alaska to Help Finance Pipeline

From http://www.enerfax.com <http://www.enerfax.com/> :

 

Demand Forecast to Rise Slower than Expected 

 

   Annual natural gas demand will eventually reach the 30 Tcf level, 

but it will take longer than initially predicted, thanks to the price 

spikes of last winter and the current economic downturn, according to 

Energy and Environmental Analysis. Instead of reaching 30 Tcf by 

2010, the nation will likely be consuming about 29.58 Tcf per year, 

and will reach 31.33 Tcf per year by 2015. Demand is forecast to 

increase in all sectors but most dramatically in power generation, 

which will likely see a 106% increase by 2015. Demand growth is 

driven by increased power generation demand, but a large amount of 

demand will continue to be for winter peaking needs. January 

consumption will increase from 86 Bcf per day in 2000 to 113 Bcf per 

day in 2015, or about 2 Bcf per year. The  production base is 

sufficient to satisfy growing demand, but regional production 

patterns will shift as production grows in the deep water Gulf of 

Mexico, Rockies and Arctic. Prices are forecast to average in the 

$2.80 - $2.90 per Mcf range until 2010. But from 2015 to 2020, prices 

are predicted to average between $3.00 - 3.50 per Mcf. 

 

Pakistan and Afghanistan Plan Natural Gas Pipeline 

 

     Pakistani President Musharraf and Afghan interim leader Hamid 

Karzai have agreed to cooperate in all spheres of activity, including 

a proposed natural gas pipeline project from Central Asia to Pakistan 

via Afghanistan. Pakistan and several multinational companies, 

including Unocal and Bridas of Argentina, have been considering the 

idea of constructing a 1,000-mile pipeline from Turkmenistan through 

Afghanistan to growing natural gas markets in Pakistan and, 

potentially, India. Musharraf told Karzai that Pakistan and 

Afghanistan are bound together by common geography, faith, history 

and culture. Karzai says he looks forward to a tremendously good 

future ahead with Pakistan. 

 

Alaska Introduces Legislation to Authorize Bonds to Finance Pipeline

 

    Alaska's governor has introduced state legislation to authorize 

the Alaska Railroad Corp to issue $17 billion in tax-exempt bonds to 

finance the proposed Alaska Highway natural gas pipeline. The bill 

would amend existing law to authorize the railroad company to issue 

the bonds to finance construction and maintenance of a natural gas 

pipeline and related facilities for transporting volumes from 

Alaska's North Slope. It also authorizes the company to negotiate 

with producers on the bond issue. The railroad company was granted 

tax-exempt status when it was transferred from federal to state 

ownership in 1983, a status reaffirmed by the Tax Reform Act of 1986. 

It can be used for conduit financing of the proposed pipeline to the 

lower market states, but neither the company nor the state would own 

the pipeline or be liable for the debt. Debt responsibility would 

fall on privately owned companies that build, own and operate the 

pipeline. The governor says the project could help Alaska deliver up 

to 6 Bcf per day to the nation. The project would bring good jobs and 

revenue to the state. ExxonMobil and Phillips Petroleum have been 

studying the feasibility of building a pipeline through Canada. The 

pipeline's cost has been estimated at $15 billion - $20 billion. 

 

Bob Brooks

GPCM Natural Gas Market Forecasting System

http://gpcm.rbac.com <http://gpcm.rbac.com/>