From: lorna.brennan@enron.com
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Date: 2001-10-19 15:56:46+00:00
Subject: NOAA Weather Forecast Released

Note:  The summary of the new NOAA winter forecast is below.  If you want to see the entire version, click on this site:  http://www.noaa.gov/

NOAA Sees Cold Winter Ahead 
The United States can expect another colder-than-normal winter, with temperatures similar to last winter, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its winter outlook, confirming recent private forecasts, most notably that of Salomon Smith Barney Meteorologist Jon Davis earlier this week.
For most of the United States, winter 2001-02 will feel like a sequel to last year's cold season, NOAA said, with sharp swings in temperature and precipitation, including heavy lake-effect snows in the Northeast and Midwest, cold air outbreaks in the South, and the potential for Nor'easters along the East Coast. 
NOAA said the absence of a strong El Ni?o or La Ni?a climate pattern leaves the door open for a highly variable winter, which will impact the winter weather extremes such as cold, snow, rain and ice that the nation may experience. 
"We don't expect a repeat of the record-breaking cold temperatures of November-December of last year, but this winter should be cooler than the warm winters of the late 1990s," said Scott Gudes, NOAA's acting administrator. "Citizens should prepare for the full range of winter weather." 
Climate factors that influenced last winter will play a similar role this season. They include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of cold-air outbreaks in the South and Nor'easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can impact the number of heavy rain storms in the Pacific Northwest. 
"This winter, NOAA's improving technologies will help National Weather Service forecasters -- for the first time -- pinpoint when these factors will kick in and bring extreme weather," said Jack Kelly, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. 
Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Northeast. Snowfall for the entire region will depend on the fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation. The Mid-Atlantic states have equal chances of above normal, normal, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Storm tracks could bring more snow than the winters of the late 1990s, but this largely depends on the Arctic Oscillation, NOAA said. The Southeast should be drier than normal. Temperatures have an equal chance of averaging above normal, normal or below normal. 
In the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, temperatures should be lower than normal, with more sub-zero days than the average of recent winters. There are equal chances for cumulative precipitation to be above normal, normal, or below normal. The northern Great Plains and Rockies should see below-normal temperatures with more sub-zero days than experienced on average during the winters of the late 1990s, but wet and mild weather is more likely for the southern Plains. 
The central Rockies can expect equal chances of above normal, normal, or below-normal precipitation and temperatures. In the Northwest, there are equal chances for above normal, normal, or below-normal rain and snow. Heavy coastal rain events are more likely compared to the previous three winters. A repeat of the near-record dryness seen last winter is unlikely. NOAA said to expect warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the Southwest (except western California) and equal chances of above normal, normal or below-normal precipitation.