From: kenton.erwin@enron.com
To: ffec@dynegy.com, jeffrey.hooper@swpc.siemens.com, dhensley@brobeck.com, watwlg@flash.net, robert.cooper@enron.com, paul.hester@enron.com, steve.elliott@enron.com, dmattoon@solarc.com, sselbe@cbtd.com, stacy.dickson@enron.com, jgranmayeh@cbtd.com, kevin.kohnstamm@enron.com, jeerwin@aol.com, eric.merten@enron.com, jhodge@enron.com, pas_rb@hotmail.com, feckhartjr@aol.com, mlspears@aol.com, joseph.joyce@enron.com, brad.richter@enron.com, jim.brysch@enron.com, robb.justice@enron.com, dan.lyons@enron.com, richard.sanders@enron.com, gunnar.frey@enron.com, gil.melman@enron.com, david.koogler@enron.com, robert.williams@enron.com, kristina.mordaunt@enron.com, michelle.hicks@enron.com, paul.puchot@enron.com, geoffrey.allen@enron.com, david.crews@enron.com, john.mcclain@enron.com, mike.maloney@enron.com, andrea.woodland@enron.com, dbishop42@aol.com, sselbe55@aol.com, cconsidine@cbtd.com, dleroy@cbtd.com, mbyrd@cbtd.com, mmcginnis@cbtd.com, rmcmillan@cbtd.com, rstrange@cbtd.com, kimberly.mullins@halliburton.com, timothy.mcgrath@halliburton.com, josh_stahl@hotmail.com, rg3739@mcia.com, mcarder@stinson.com, trhoads@cbtd.com, david.leatherwood@enron.com, mhowerton@hmscpas.com, tracy.cooper@enron.com, scott.bolton@enron.com, stuart.zisman@enron.com, hfcook@wcgf.com, wede@dynegy.com, serwin@tacomaclick.net, mark.schofer@tek.com, jmiller@lgl.twc.com, dwilson@tannerguin.com, jmsenergy@houston.rr.com, stimmer@hotmail.com, gerald.nemec@enron.com, bob.carter@enron.com, ron.coker@enron.com, john.allario@enron.com, david.degabriele@enron.com, richard.anderson@enron.com, mitch.olson@enron.com, steve.mccarrel@enron.com
Date: 2001-03-11 17:03:00+00:00
Subject: NCAA Game

If you played this game in years before, welcome back!  It's time for March 
Madness!  If you haven't played before, thanks for looking at this game, and 
let me know if you have any questions.  Some of you who haven't seen this 
game before have played Steve Selbe's recent college football bowl game (as I 
did); Steve plays my NCAA basketball game, and that's how I found your 
addresses.  Hope you're interested!

This is a private game, played among friends.  Although almost all the 
players win some money back, it is not guaranteed.  You might lose everything 
you invest, so be careful.  This is for fun, not a way to get rich.  I think 
last year exactly half of the players made a profit, and all but one got some 
money back.  Please note that you can play with any amount from $1.01 to 
$400.  You are not disadvantaged by playing with a smaller amount (you would 
just be risking less and either losing or winning proportionately less.  The 
odds of winning are exactly the same for all players).  You are free to play 
at the dollar level that is comfortable for you.  Please also note that both 
the Part I game and the Part II game are mandatory; you must play both.

If you want to play, please detach and print out the attached game form, then 
fill it in and get it to me by the deadline.  Keep a copy.  Your money (and a 
SASE --self-addressed, stamped envelope-- if you are not in Portland or with 
EBS in Houston)  must quickly follow.  This is the honor system and we've 
never had a problem.  If you live near others who are playing, and you're not 
in Portland or Enron/Houston, you can band together and send in only one 
SASE, and indicate on your game form the person to whom I should send your 
future winnings; I will then send your winnings to that named recipient in 
his or her SASE, and that person will be responsible for forwarding your 
winnings check to you.

Some minor changes for this year:  You can choose either one or two teams in 
the Part I game, to increase your chances of picking the winner.  If you only 
want to choose one Part I team, as in the past, that is fine.  In the Part II 
game, the costs per share for each seed have been slightly revised; they are 
chosen by laying a smooth curve through the historical results for each seed, 
over the past ten years.  Otherwise, the game is about the same.  Although it 
was an attractive idea, I decided against a small pot for the Elite Eight; 
there is too much additional calculation involved, and it breaks up my normal 
cycle of playing two games and determining the winners at that level.

Speaking of historical results, here are some facts you might want to 
consider:  Last year, two 8 seeds, a 5 seed, and a 1st seed made it to the 
Final Four (usually, there is more than one 1st seed that makes it, although 
all four 1st seeds have never made it that far as a group).  It is very 
unusual for an 8 seed to knock off a 1st seed.  A 16 seed has never won a 
game, and, while a couple of 15 seeds have knocked off a 2 seed, I don't 
think any 15 seed has won the second game and made it into the Sweet 
Sixteen.  34 out of the 40 First seeds in the past ten years have made it to 
the Sweet Sixteen; 18 of them made it to the Final Four, and 7 of them won 
the tournament. 

Good luck!

Kenton Erwin
w: 503-886-0261