From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: kamins@ect.enron.com
Date: 2001-06-01 14:19:59+00:00
Subject: Daily Trader Summary for Fri, Jun 01, 2001


[IMAGE]	


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]      Syncrasy, LLC?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com    Sales:                   713.228.4407   Development Offices:   970.247.4139 Off   970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue       Suite 221        Durango, CO 81301    		 [IMAGE]   Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.     - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or send an email to sales@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com      Data last updated  Friday, Jun 01, 2001 at 09:03AM EST    Commentary last updated  Friday, Jun 01, 2001 at 09:19AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'   Today: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  1, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  66  -2  ERCOT(SP)  92  +2  FRCC(SE)  87  +1  MAAC(NE)  69  NC  MAIN(CTR)  66  NC  MAPP(HP)  64  +2  NPCC(NE)  68  +3  SERC(SE)  81  -1  SPP(SP)  83  +2  WSCC(NW)  71  NC  WSCC(RK)  82  NC  WSCC(SW)  86  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   62 71 63 66 79 78 88 83  Max    65 74 68 73 84 82 91 87  Min     57 67 57 60 74 75 85 79  Range  8 7 11 13 9 7 6 8  StD-P  2.3 1.9 3.3 4.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.4  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1 -5 Discussion:  I don't see a lot to change from my previous forecast. It is good to see that with the exception of Day 5, the volatility of the various forecasts has come down showing some agreement.  The Day 5 volatility may be a function as to how far West the next trough initially comes in. One of the models in my opinion is much too far West with this feature, but seems to resolve itself fairly quickly by Day 6. In the short term, we are dealing with a warm front spreading significant rainfall to the East Coast today. On its heels another cold front now in the Mississippi Valley moves East for the weekend with more rain and cooler air behind it. The West Coast ridge slides East which will break down the heat especially for the Pacific NW and Northern Intermountain region. Some minor easing is expected farther South. The next trough will move into the Pac! ific NW this weekend and will reform in the Plains early next week setting up another round of storms for the Midwest. Late in the period, the Rockies ridge starts to reform back to the West Coast. I am starting to notice a small warming of upper level temperatures in the SE. This is a seasonal trend of the Bermuda high attempting to establish itself. It will result in some warmer air from Texas across the Gulf Coast to the Carolina's. This is not unseasonal warmth, more a return to normal.  Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  2, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  66  +2  ERCOT(SP)  93  +2  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  77  +1  MAIN(CTR)  62  -2  MAPP(HP)  65  -3  NPCC(NE)  67  NC  SERC(SE)  86  +3  SPP(SP)  79  -1  WSCC(NW)  60  -3  WSCC(RK)  76  -2  WSCC(SW)  79  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   60 67 64 56 76 80 88 79  Max    65 71 70 68 80 86 91 84  Min     55 62 60 48 72 76 84 75  Range  10 10 9 20 8 10 6 9  StD-P  2.7 3.5 3.2 6.0 2.7 3.1 1.7 2.6  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun  3, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  63  NC  ERCOT(SP)  92  +1  FRCC(SE)  91  +3  MAAC(NE)  73  +2  MAIN(CTR)  63  -3  MAPP(HP)  62  -2  NPCC(NE)  69  +1  SERC(SE)  85  +3  SPP(SP)  78  -4  WSCC(NW)  62  -4  WSCC(RK)  65  -3  WSCC(SW)  79  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   60 58 63 56 66 80 90 79  Max    64 66 69 62 70 86 93 81  Min     54 52 58 51 61 76 88 77  Range  9 13 11 11 8 10 5 4  StD-P  3.7 4.5 3.4 3.7 3.0 3.3 1.7 1.1  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun  4, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  67  -1  ERCOT(SP)  90  +1  FRCC(SE)  91  +1  MAAC(NE)  74  +1  MAIN(CTR)  64  -1  MAPP(HP)  61  NC  NPCC(NE)  69  +2  SERC(SE)  85  +1  SPP(SP)  78  -1  WSCC(NW)  69  -1  WSCC(RK)  66  -5  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   60 61 62 64 64 80 88 82  Max    65 71 70 69 73 85 91 84  Min     56 55 59 63 60 76 85 80  Range  9 16 11 6 13 9 5 3  StD-P  3.1 5.2 2.9 1.6 3.7 2.8 1.6 1.0  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun  5, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  70  +3  ERCOT(SP)  85  NC  FRCC(SE)  90  +1  MAAC(NE)  76  +3  MAIN(CTR)  65  +1  MAPP(HP)  65  -1  NPCC(NE)  70  +2  SERC(SE)  85  +3  SPP(SP)  75  -2  WSCC(NW)  74  +1  WSCC(RK)  74  -3  WSCC(SW)  84  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   59 65 61 65 68 78 80 79  Max    67 75 72 74 77 85 88 84  Min     52 46 54 48 36 73 71 58  Range  14 28 17 26 41 12 18 26  StD-P  4.2 7.2 3.7 5.6 10.5 2.4 6.4 6.9  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 discussion:  Yesterdays extreme chill(for the season) solution of the MRF for the East has been tempered somewhat as I expected it would. However, there is pretty fair agreement among the long range models going into the middle of June. We have seen a blocking pattern in Canada for weeks now which has allowed the jet stream to roam farther South and stronger than normal. The only difference I see in the block is a Westward shift of it to the central part of the country. This shift may be the first signs of a pattern change outside this window. It won't make a huge difference in the evolution of the U.S. pattern through day 10. We should continue to see a mean ridge located over the West with a trough in the East. Other than the deep South and of course the ongoing Western heat, it looks unlikely that any sustainable warmth will develop through mid June. Th! e warmer upper levels in the South though I believe are another indicator to a change in the pattern to more typical summer after June 15'th. We still have ample rainfall opportunities for the next two weeks. Other than a few localized areas unusual heat feedback due to drought appears unlikely through at least July 4'th.    Day 6: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun  6, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  66  NC  ERCOT(SP)  83  -3  FRCC(SE)  89  +2  MAAC(NE)  74  +3  MAIN(CTR)  67  -2  MAPP(HP)  72  +1  NPCC(NE)  69  +1  SERC(SE)  80  +1  SPP(SP)  78  -2  WSCC(NW)  74  +1  WSCC(RK)  80  +1  WSCC(SW)  84  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   64 76 63 70 81 77 80 84  Max    69 81 70 74 83 82 87 84  Min     56 72 59 66 79 74 72 82  Range  13 10 11 8 4 8 15 3  StD-P  5.8 3.6 2.9 2.8 1.5 2.5 6.3 0.8  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  NC  ERCOT(SP)  86  -2  FRCC(SE)  86  NC  MAAC(NE)  70  -1  MAIN(CTR)  73  -1  MAPP(HP)  75  +1  NPCC(NE)  68  NC  SERC(SE)  79  -1  SPP(SP)  81  -1  WSCC(NW)  74  +1  WSCC(RK)  80  +1  WSCC(SW)  84  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   68 81 61 71 82 76 82 84  Max    77 87 68 74 84 80 88 86  Min     59 76 56 68 81 69 74 82  Range  18 11 12 5 3 11 14 4  StD-P  7.3 4.2 3.4 1.9 0.8 5.3 5.9 1.2  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  +12  ERCOT(SP)  87  +8  FRCC(SE)  86  +12  MAAC(NE)  74  +19  MAIN(CTR)  76  +8  MAPP(HP)  77  +1  NPCC(NE)  70  +17  SERC(SE)  81  +14  SPP(SP)  83  +3  WSCC(NW)  73  +8  WSCC(RK)  79  -2  WSCC(SW)  83  +4      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 81 62 71 83 77 83 83  Max    77 84 71 78 85 83 89 85  Min     68 79 57 66 80 70 76 82  Range  9 6 14 12 5 13 13 3  StD-P  3.4 1.5 4.1 4.5 1.7 5.9 5.4 0.9  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  -1  ERCOT(SP)  79  -2  FRCC(SE)  76  +1  MAAC(NE)  66  NC  MAIN(CTR)  71  -3  MAPP(HP)  77  +1  NPCC(NE)  61  NC  SERC(SE)  71  -1  SPP(SP)  80  -1  WSCC(NW)  66  +3  WSCC(RK)  80  +5  WSCC(SW)  82  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   70 78 62 72 81 76 82 84  Max    71 79 62 78 83 82 89 86  Min     68 75 59 66 77 72 79 82  Range  3 4 3 11 6 9 10 4  StD-P  1.0 1.3 1.1 5.7 2.4 3.8 3.4 1.6  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  69  -1  ERCOT(SP)  81  -2  FRCC(SE)  76  -2  MAAC(NE)  71  NC  MAIN(CTR)  69  -1  MAPP(HP)  71  +2  NPCC(NE)  63  NC  SERC(SE)  74  -2  SPP(SP)  82  NC  WSCC(NW)  70  +1  WSCC(RK)  75  +3  WSCC(SW)  83  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   62 67 62 62 68 73 77 73  Max    70 74 66 70 77 74 82 84  Min     53 59 57 54 56 71 71 63  Range  16 14 9 15 21 4 11 20  StD-P  7.6 6.7 4.3 7.3 9.8 1.3 5.2 10.2  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor    www.apbenergy.comor www.truequote.com   [IMAGE]  	
		 [IMAGE]    909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314      713.228.8470  Main      www.syncrasy.com    835 Main Ave., Suite 221      970.247.4139 Main    Houston, TX  77002   713.228.4147  Fax   Durango, CO  81301    970.247.7951 Fax    713.228.4407  Sales       If you prefer to not receive future e-mails regarding Syncrasy Products and News Updates,   please REPLY to this message and indicate REMOVE in the subject field.