From: j.kaminski@enron.com
To: a..roberts@enron.com
Date: 2001-08-01 18:50:51+00:00
Subject: FW: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Aug 01, 2001

Mike,

Please, take a look at it.

Vince

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-tradersummary+40syncrasy+2Ecom+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Wednesday, August 01, 2001 10:36 AM
To:	vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject:	Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Aug 01, 2001

 
[IMAGE]	


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complementary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Wednesday, Aug 01, 2001 at 08:00AM ET    Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Aug 01, 2001 at 10:19AM ET  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Wednesday, August  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 90 NC ERCOT(SP) 97 +1 FRCC(SE) 86 -2 MAAC(NE) 86 +1 MAIN(CTR) 91 +1 MAPP(HP) 83 +3 NPCC(NE) 85 NC SERC(SE) 88 NC SPP(SP) 96 +2 WSCC(NW) 78 -1 WSCC(RK) 83 +1 WSCC(SW) 84 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 84 84 80 74 81 84 95 83 Max 92 89 86 80 86 88 98 87 Min 78 80 72 65 77 78 91 79 Range 14 9 14 15 9 10 7 8 StD-P 3.3 2.6 3.7 4.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-5 Discussion:  *** Large ridge has shut the rain down for most of the country. Above normal though not excessive temperatures expected for most areas through the end of the week and beyond. Tropical wave in the Caribbean has become more organized over the past 24 hours.***  The ridge in the Plains and building East looks quite strong to me. In an ordinary August, this should have more triple digit heat than we are seeing. The humidity and associated heat indices are more than making up for this. Consistent rain from earlier in the summer seem to be still having an impact on temperatures. The only shower activity of note this morning is in the Upper Midwest with a weak cold front pressing down from Canada. This will reach the NE by the weekend, but cooling will be less dramatic than recent episodes. There will be some subtle sh! ifts with the Plains ridge, but not a huge effect on sensible weather. A weak monsoonal flow continues in the West, especially the SW. We also have a trough supplying cool air for the NW. This trough should weaken considerably late in the period with signs the Plains ridge expands into the West.   As for the tropics, I still see a potential for "Barry" to form late this week in the Southern Gulf. The wave from this in the Caribbean looks healthier today. Rains from this will spread into the Southern half of Florida today. The hurricane models have been run on this system and one of the intensity indicators predict a minimal hurriczane by Friday. I caution that to be way overblown considering we dont have a storm as of yet. The environment should be more favorable once the system passes by Cuba tonight. Most of the models have a landfall of some type early next week in Southern Texas or Northern Mexico.  Tomorrow: Thursday, August  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 87 +1 ERCOT(SP) 95 NC FRCC(SE) 85 -2 MAAC(NE) 87 +1 MAIN(CTR) 86 +2 MAPP(HP) 84 +3 NPCC(NE) 87 +1 SERC(SE) 89 -1 SPP(SP) 95 +1 WSCC(NW) 79 -1 WSCC(RK) 87 +1 WSCC(SW) 87 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 82 86 81 74 83 83 93 85 Max 89 94 88 80 88 88 96 88 Min 74 79 70 66 77 78 89 81 Range 15 15 18 14 11 10 7 7 StD-P 3.6 3.6 4.7 4.7 2.7 3.0 2.4 1.9 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   Day 3: Friday, August  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 84 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 +1 FRCC(SE) 86 -1 MAAC(NE) 86 +2 MAIN(CTR) 85 NC MAPP(HP) 87 +2 NPCC(NE) 84 +3 SERC(SE) 89 -2 SPP(SP) 95 +1 WSCC(NW) 82 +2 WSCC(RK) 88 +1 WSCC(SW) 86 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 88 77 76 83 82 94 85 Max 86 97 85 82 88 88 97 87 Min 75 78 69 72 73 78 90 82 Range 11 19 16 10 15 10 7 5 StD-P 3.7 4.4 4.8 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.5 1.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4: Saturday, August  4, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 85 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 -1 FRCC(SE) 88 -1 MAAC(NE) 85 +2 MAIN(CTR) 85 -1 MAPP(HP) 88 NC NPCC(NE) 81 +2 SERC(SE) 87 -3 SPP(SP) 93 -1 WSCC(NW) 78 -1 WSCC(RK) 87 +1 WSCC(SW) 86 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 86 74 73 83 81 92 85 Max 86 91 83 78 86 87 96 87 Min 75 82 70 68 78 78 89 82 Range 11 9 13 10 8 9 7 5 StD-P 3.5 2.8 4.2 3.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Sunday, August  5, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 85 NC ERCOT(SP) 94 -1 FRCC(SE) 90 NC MAAC(NE) 85 +1 MAIN(CTR) 86 NC MAPP(HP) 87 NC NPCC(NE) 83 +3 SERC(SE) 87 -3 SPP(SP) 91 -1 WSCC(NW) 81 +2 WSCC(RK) 86 -1 WSCC(SW) 88 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 86 75 75 83 82 90 87 Max 86 89 84 83 86 88 94 89 Min 77 82 68 67 80 79 86 84 Range 9 7 16 16 6 9 8 5 StD-P 3.2 2.2 4.9 4.7 2.0 2.2 2.9 1.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 6: Monday, August  6, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 85 NC ERCOT(SP) 92 -1 FRCC(SE) 90 +1 MAAC(NE) 86 +1 MAIN(CTR) 85 NC MAPP(HP) 85 -1 NPCC(NE) 85 +4 SERC(SE) 89 NC SPP(SP) 91 NC WSCC(NW) 84 +5 WSCC(RK) 87 +1 WSCC(SW) 88 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 86 75 80 85 83 89 86 Max 85 89 85 86 87 89 93 90 Min 78 83 67 69 82 80 84 84 Range 7 6 18 17 5 9 9 6 StD-P 1.8 1.2 5.5 4.6 2.1 2.5 4.3 2.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5    Day 6-10 discussion:  Any private weather sources who forecast exclusively on the American MRF model in the 6-10 day period will be touting another major trough and subsequent cooldown for the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is no other model support for this at this time and it is my opinion that those forecasts will bust in a big way. Now, having said that, there is some support for the ridge to shift West temporarily into the Rockies. That often results in a trough in the NE which is climatologically favored. I just think the magnitude of the MRF is way overdone. I am maintaining earlier forecasts of largely above normal temperatures East of the Rockies until further evidence indicates otherwise. At the same time, the West may start to share in the warmth, though the set up still does not favor heat getting to the coastal communities.  Day 7: Tuesday, August  7, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 83 -3 ERCOT(SP) 93 NC FRCC(SE) 91 +1 MAAC(NE) 85 -2 MAIN(CTR) 85 -1 MAPP(HP) 83 -3 NPCC(NE) 83 +1 SERC(SE) 90 NC SPP(SP) 91 NC WSCC(NW) 86 +5 WSCC(RK) 86 +1 WSCC(SW) 88 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 79 86 74 82 84 83 88 86 Max 83 89 83 87 87 90 93 92 Min 76 84 68 71 81 80 82 81 Range 7 5 15 16 6 10 11 11 StD-P 1.9 1.9 4.9 4.3 1.7 2.7 5.1 3.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Wednesday, August  8, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 82 +2 ERCOT(SP) 93 +14 FRCC(SE) 92 +11 MAAC(NE) 84 +6 MAIN(CTR) 83 +1 MAPP(HP) 82 -4 NPCC(NE) 79 +6 SERC(SE) 90 +11 SPP(SP) 92 +8 WSCC(NW) 85 +16 WSCC(RK) 86 +6 WSCC(SW) 88 +7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 79 86 74 80 82 83 89 87 Max 82 88 80 85 85 90 94 89 Min 76 85 70 69 79 81 84 81 Range 6 3 10 16 6 9 10 8 StD-P 2.7 1.2 3.0 4.5 1.6 3.0 4.6 2.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Thursday, August  9, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 69 -12 ERCOT(SP) 86 +6 FRCC(SE) 81 +1 MAAC(NE) 69 -11 MAIN(CTR) 74 -7 MAPP(HP) 80 -5 NPCC(NE) 64 -11 SERC(SE) 79 -2 SPP(SP) 87 +4 WSCC(NW) 76 +2 WSCC(RK) 84 +4 WSCC(SW) 87 +7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 78 85 69 76 81 81 90 87 Max 83 86 75 81 84 82 95 89 Min 74 85 65 71 79 79 87 85 Range 9 1 10 10 5 3 8 4 StD-P 4.2 0.5 4.4 2.4 2.1 1.2 3.4 1.2 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Friday, August 10, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 70 -10 ERCOT(SP) 85 +3 FRCC(SE) 81 -1 MAAC(NE) 66 -12 MAIN(CTR) 75 -3 MAPP(HP) 83 -2 NPCC(NE) 61 -7 SERC(SE) 78 -3 SPP(SP) 87 +3 WSCC(NW) 70 +2 WSCC(RK) 82 +2 WSCC(SW) 85 +5     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 73 78 66 63 72 77 82 76 Max 75 86 69 70 82 78 86 85 Min 70 70 63 55 59 75 79 65 Range 5 16 6 15 23 3 7 20 StD-P 2.3 7.8 3.3 6.8 10.4 1.3 3.5 9.2 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]