From: evening@ino.com
To: mike.grigsby@enron.com
Date: 2001-05-14 21:35:00+00:00
Subject: Trader, Monday DOW +56.02 CRB +0.92 USD +0.33 NAS -25.51 S&P +3.25

M O N D A Y   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

Monday: The CRB Index is higher 0.92 points to 214.82. The
US Dollar Index rose 0.33 points to 117.17.

The Dow Industrials moved higher by 56.02 points, at 10877.33, while
the S&P 500 climbed 3.25 points, last seen at 1248.92. The
Nasdaq Composite eased 25.51 points to 2081.92.

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E X T R E M E   M A R K E T   C O M M E N T A R Y
_____________________________________________________________________

June Nasdaq futures closed 26.50 lower at 1808.00 today. Prices hit a
fresh two-week low today, but have been trading sideways for several
weeks. The sideways trading favors the bulls, but they still have
some heavy lifting to do and their next upside objective is
resistance at the key 2,000 area. First support is seen at the 1,732
area.

June S&P 500 futures closed 0.20 higher at 1252.00. Same story:
Prices have leveled off the past four weeks, after rallying solidly
off the early-April low. This does favor the bulls, but not greatly.
Technically, bulls still need to push prices above the 1285
resistance area. My bias is still that any recovery in the stock
market and the stock indexes won't be dramatic, but a slower grind
higher, with fits and starts. First resistance is seen at 1285.00.
First support is seen at 1206.00.

LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed $0.58 higher at 70.75 today.
Prices rebounded from a technically oversold condition today, and on
news that boxed beef prices had improved. Last week, prices hit a
fresh multi-month low. Still, prices are in an accelerating
two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have
control. Next support, basis June, is seen at $70.25. First
resistance comes in at the $71.00 level.

August feeder cattle closed off 22 cents today at $87.65. The rally
in the corn market today hurt feeders. If recent history continues to
play out in feeders, prices may dip a bit more, but the support area
of 87.40 will cap losses. That is the lower level of the trading band
in place for the past several weeks. If prices break down below the
bottom of the recent trading range, then the door is opened to a
lower trend down to the January low just above the $86.00 level. Next
resistance is seen at $88.00. First support is seen at $87.60 and
then at $87.40.

June lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $68.80 today. Commercial buying
was seen in the futures pits, reports said. Price action today saw
more consolidation after the strong losses recorded in recent weeks.
But the bears still have the momentum on their side at present. Next
support lies at $67.00. First resistance is located at the 69.50
level.

GRAINS: July corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher at $2.01 3/4
today. Another "mini" weather scare popped prices today. Two
important things to point out here: One, July corn (now the nearby
contract) did not stay below the key $2.00-per-bushel level very
long. Secondly, notice how even some hot temps forecast for mid-May
popped prices higher. I suspect that with prices this low going into
the growing season, this type of knee-jerk reaction to any changes in
the weather patterns will be the norm. Still, bottom pickers should
beware. Next resistance is now seen at $2.04. Next support is seen at
$2.00.

July soybeans closed 7 1/2 cents higher at $4.43 1/4 today. Like
corn, beans were boosted by a "mini" weather scare and ideas that now
there may not be significant corn acres switched to soybeans.
Importantly, the bean market did not fare that badly, technically,
last week, in the face of the sell offs in corn and wheat futures.
Today's big upside push propelled prices to a fresh five-week high
and pushed prices above a stiff resistance area at $4.45. Bears still
have the advantage. It's going to take a "significant" weather scare
this spring or summer to force soybean prices solidly higher. First
resistance is now seen at the $4.50 area and then $4.55. First
support is now seen at $4.35.

July soybean meal closed up $3.60 at $159.40 today. Prices today
pushed to a fresh nearly three-month-high. Importantly, prices pushed
above the congestion area on the

daily bar chart that had contained gains for better than a week.
Recent price action is very encouraging to the bulls and is a solid
sign the lows are in place in the meal market. Next resistance comes
in at the $162.00 area. First support is seen at $156.00.

July bean oil closed 7 points higher at 14.73 cents today. Prices
scored another new contract low today of 14.62 cents. Oil is still
technically weaker than beans or meal right now. But I would be
surprised if there is much downside left in oil. Next resistance
comes in at 15.00 cents. Next support is seen at 14.50 cents.

July Chicago wheat gapped higher on the daily bar chart and closed 7
1/4 cents higher at $2.78 1/2 today. Hot and dry weather forecast for
the U.S. Plains states this week combined with a bullish USDA report
last Thursday to send prices sharply higher today. Now, odds have
increased that a double-bottom reversal on the daily bar chart will
be confirmed. The fact that wheat was technically oversold also led
to the stronger upside movement today. Prices last Wednesday touched
the contract low of $2.65. Bears still have the slight edge, but
bulls are gaining confidence rapidly. First resistance lies at the
$2.80 area. Next support is seen at $2.75.

SOFTS: July N.Y. sugar closed 9 points lower at 9.01 cents today.
Prices scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart
today. We still could see a minor bullish pennant forming in sugar,
but prices would need to bounce right back higher soon. Bulls can
still correctly argue that today's pullback was just consolidation
amid good prices gains seen recently. A three-month high was scored
in July sugar just recently. A six-week-old uptrend line is still in
place on the daily bar chart. Next resistance now comes in at 9.15
cents--today's high. First support is seen at 8.80 cents.

July N.Y. coffee closed 3.40 cents lower at 64.25 cents today. Prices
gapped lower on the daily bar chart and let some of the air out of
the bulls' balloon. They had gained momentum lately. Not much
technical damage will occur if prices can rebound, but if good
follow-through selling occurs Tuesday, then odds significantly
increase that prices will test the recent lows. First support comes
in at 62 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents-- today's
high.

July N.Y. cocoa closed $10 higher today, at $1,024. Prices scored a
corrective "inside day" on the daily bar chart today, following
Friday's big sell off. The bears wanted to see follow-through selling
today to confirm a bearish key reversal down on the daily bar chart,
but that did not occur. Bulls and bears are still on a level playing
field. Next resistance comes in at $1,062. First support is now seen
at $1,000.

July cotton closed 153 points higher at 46.70 cents today. Hot and
dry weather in the cotton-growing regions of the U.S. combined with a
technically oversold condition on the market to push prices solidly
higher today. The cotton market will be like the grains. Prices are
so depressed that traders will be extra jumpy when any potentially
adverse weather patterns are forecast. There was good follow-through
buying today from Friday's "outside day" up on the daily bar chart,
and a key reversal up was confirmed. This gives the bulls a bit more
confidence. Cotton is still in a bear market and any rebounds may be
selling opportunities for the bears. Let's see what happens this
week. My bias is still that we are not that far from a bottoming
process. Next resistance lies at 48.00 cents. First support now is
seen around 45.00 cents. Would-be bottom-pickers should still beware.

July orange juice futures closed 30 points higher today, at 79.20
cents. Prices closed near the session high. Last week, bulls filled
an important downside gap area on the daily bar chart. They have
gained confidence after the recent price action, but will need to see
more upside action this week--pushing prices above 80 cents--to gain
solid momentum. Next resistance is seen at 80.00 cents. Next support
comes in at 77.60 cents--today's low.

July lumber futures closed the limit of $10.00 higher again today, at
$324.80. Prices today again gapped higher and hit a new for-the-move
high. Bulls are really snorting now. Expect more volatility, as is
typical for this market. The next upside objective for the bulls is
now the $330.00 area, and then $335.00. First support is seen at the
$315.00 area. This is a fun market to watch from the sidelines. But
the volatility can be a killer to those who are caught on the wrong
side of the lumber market.

METALS: June COMEX gold closed up $0.40 today, at $268.70. Prices
corrected a bit more today after last Wednesday's strong gains that
pushed prices to a two-month high. This market is in a nice uptrend
since scoring its early-April low. Recent price action is what bulls
needed to gain confidence to trek farther north on the chart. Next
resistance is located at $271.10--the recent high. First support is
seen at $266.00.

July silver closed up $0.02 today, at $4.357 an ounce. Same story:
Silver prices are not that far above the contract low. Prices are
chopping at lower levels, and this suggests a "basing" action that
many markets need to change the trend from down, to sideways, to
eventually up. Next support is seen at $4.30. First resistance is
seen at $4.425. Bears have the advantage.

July N.Y. copper closed 85 points lower today, at 75.50 cents. A
bearish U.S. economic report today pulled copper prices down to a new
contract low. The stock market and the U.S. economy will have to be
healthy before the bulls can really get something going in copper.
Next resistance is seen at 77.00 cents. Next support is seen at 75.00
cents.

ENERGIES: July crude closed $0.06 higher at $29.13 today. Bulls and
bears are still at a stand-off, but bulls will gain the edge on a
move above $29.50. Expect more choppy trading. Next support is seen
at 28.00. Next resistance lies at $29.50.

July heating oil closed 86 points lower today, at .7566. Bulls still
have the slight edge. Look for more choppy trading in the near
future. Next support is seen at 74.00 cents. Next resistance is seen
at 78.00 cents.

July unleaded gasoline closed 302 points lower at .9428 today. After
prices scored a new contract high last week, they have sold off
dramatically. The increase in volatility at higher price levels
suggests a topping process in the market. Bulls have lost their edge.
Next support is seen at $.9200. First resistance is seen at $.9600.

July natural gas closed 11.5 cents higher at $4.465 today. After,
prices hit a fresh five-and-one-half-month low last Wednesday, we've
seen corrective consolidation. Bears still have the edge. Next
support is seen at $4.20 and first resistance is at $4.60.

STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed 20
points lower at .8740 today. Prices pushed to another fresh four-week
low today. Bears have the edge. My bias is still that there is not
much downside left in the Euro, but the markets are always right, so
we'll see. Next support is now seen at .8700. Next resistance is seen
at .8850.

The June Japanese yen closed 47 points lower at .8143 today. Bears
are in control. Bulls are hoping for some "basing" activity at lower
levels, and that may be occurring, although it's too early to tell.
Next support now lies at the .8100 level. First resistance is seen at
the .8326 level.

The June Swiss franc closed 10 points lower at .5713. Bears are in
command. Prices pushed to a fresh 5.5-month low today, and took out
the mid-April low of .5702. If we see follow-through selling to push
prices significantly below today's low, that a bearish signal and
portends significantly more downside. A 4.5-month-old downtrend line
is in place on the daily bar chart, and it has accelerated recently.
Next support is seen at the .5700 level. First resistance comes in at
the .5800 level.

The June Australian dollar futures closed 22 points lower at .5193
today. Prices pushed to a fresh two-month high last Thursday and the
bulls have the advantage as a six- week-old uptrend line is in place
on the daily bar chart. First resistance is now seen at .5300. First
support is now seen at .5150.

The June Canadian dollar closed 4 points lower today, at .6444. Bulls
are losing momentum as prices correct from the push to the May high.
They still have the slight edge, on a short-term basis, but they will
lose it if they can't turn prices at least sideways this week. This
currency had been near recent historic lows and I do not think there
is much more downside. Next resistance is seen at the .6500 level.
First support is seen at the .6400 level.

The June British pound closed 4 points lower at 1.4182. Trading
continues choppy at lower levels. As prices approach the lower
portion of the recent trading range, strong support should kick in
and provide for a bounce. But if prices fall below the early April
low of 1.4112, then the door is open to much steeper losses. This
currency was not that far above recent historic lows and I do not
think there is much more downside in the sterling. One could still
argue that price action the past few weeks has been a "basing" before
prices eventually turn north. A move below 1.4100 would be considered
a bearish downside breakout. Next support is now seen at the 1.4112
level. Next resistance comes in at the 1.4270 level.

The June U.S. dollar index closed 24 points higher at 117.22 today.
Prices also pushed to a fresh four-week high again today. Next
resistance lies at the 117.70 level. First support is seen at the
115.50 area. My bias is still that there is not much upside left in
the dollar index. But this week technical odds have increased that a
new high will be scored. We'll see. Markets are never wrong--
analysts are.

June U.S. T-bonds closed 14/32 higher today at 99 20/32. Prices
scored a corrective "inside day" today after Friday's price crash to
a six-month low. All eyes are on this week's FOMC meeting, at which a
decision will be made on whether or not to cut interest rates.
Trading will likely be subdued up to the time of the announcement,
which is set to occur tomorrow afternoon. Short-term indicators show
the market is still overdone on the downside, but nobody should stand
in front of a steaming locomotive. Longer-term charts do show good
support at the 99 even area. First resistance is now seen at 100
even-- or "par."

The June U.S. T-note closed up 12.0 (32nds) today at 103.11.0. Prices
scored a corrective "inside day" after crashing to a five-month low
Friday. Bears have the edge now, as severe technical damage has been
inflicted this week. First support is seen at the 102.29.0 level.
First resistance is seen at 103.16.0 area.

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T O P   N E W S
_____________________________________________________________________

STOCKS

Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei falls 1.2% closing below 14000 line
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25475
US Equities Review:Mixed ahead of Fed; volume lightest this yr
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25482
UK Stocks Review: Program trade sends FTSE diving in auction
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25481

FOREX

US FX Review: Dollar strong ahead of expected Fed rate cuts
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25477
Asia FX Review: Trading locked in a range in Asia ahead of FOMC
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25474
Europe FX Review: Market on hold ahead of Fed rate decision
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25476

CREDIT

US Credit Review: Ends 2-day down streak as awaits Fed meet
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25472
Europe Credit Review: Mkt falls ahead of Fed rate decision
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25478
Japan Credit Review: June climbs as longer paper outperforms
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25480

COMMODITIES

US Futures Summary: Natural gas, grains rally; gasoline dives
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25479

EXCHANGES

CME, CBOE Create Joint Venture On Single-Stock Futures
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24447
New Rules Proposed For Derivatives Clearing Organizations
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24446
Holland's Essent Energy Joins EEX Exchange
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24445

____________________________________________________________________________

E X T R E M E   F U T U R E S
____________________________________________________________________________

Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/

WINNERS

LBK1   Random Length Lumber May 2001              335.00     16.00  +5.02
ZM1    U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001          103 184/256    4 3/32  +4.11
NGM1   Henry Hub Natural Gas Jun 2001              4.394     0.157  +3.67
CTN1   Cotton Jul 2001                             46.70      1.58  +3.50
XEV1   Soybean Meal Oct 2001                       149.2       4.8  +3.29
CK1    Corn May 2001                             195 1/2     5 3/4  +3.03
SMN2   Soybean Meal Jul 2002                         150       4.3  +2.95
KWK1   Wheat May 2001                            332 1/2     9 1/2  +2.94
SK1    Soybeans May 2001                             463        13  +2.89
WN1    Wheat Jul 2001                                279     7 3/4  +2.86

LOSERS

KCU1   Coffee 'C' Sep 2001                         67.15     -3.60  -5.11
PAM1   Palladium Jun 2001                         627.00    -30.00  -4.57
HUM1   New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Jun 20    1.0098   -0.0391  -3.72
AFN1   Aluminum Jul 2001                          0.7000   -0.0200  -2.78
NKM1   Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2001               13780      -350  -2.48
NDZ1   NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2001                 1835.00    -41.50  -2.21
ERY0   FTSE Eurotop 100 Cash                        3250     -63.7  -1.92
XWK1   Wheat May 2001                            269 1/2    -4 1/2  -1.71
DAK2   BFP Milk May 2002                           11.55     -0.20  -1.70
CLM2   Light Sweet Crude Oil Jun 2002              25.93     -0.39  -1.51
____________________________________________________________________________

E X T R E M E   S T O C K S
____________________________________________________________________________

Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/

WINNERS

SMTI   SMTEK INTL INC                               7.50      2.38  +46.48
ALCO   ALICO, INC                                  22.80      4.32  +23.29
HSE    HS RESOURCES                                64.43     11.15  +20.93
IMNR   IMMUNE RESPONSE                              5.95      0.99  +20.41
INOD   INNODATA CORP                                6.25      0.86  +16.10
ADLR   ADOLOR CORP                                 16.66      2.11  +14.55
FMT    FREMONT GENL                                 5.93      0.73  +14.04
WFII   WIRELESS FACILITIES(IPO)                     6.52      0.81  +13.64
COD    Chiles Offshore Inc                         24.63      2.88  +13.24
INGN   Introgen Therapeutics                        6.93      0.80  +13.05

LOSERS

PPDI   PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCT DEVLPMT              31.32    -31.34  -100.03
ENMD   ENTREMED INC                                15.30     -4.00  -20.78
MAXC   MAXCO INC                                    7.50     -1.43  -19.07
NEWP   NEWPORT CORP                                36.61     -6.30  -14.68
GGB    GERDAU S.A. ADS                              6.76     -1.09  -13.90
RZYM   RIBOZYME PHARMACEUTICALS                     7.58     -1.21  -13.81
MATX   MATRIX PHARMACEUTICAL                        8.62     -1.31  -13.23
HYGS   Hydrogenics Corp                             5.78     -0.86  -13.13
ARBA   ARIBA INC                                    6.03     -0.87  -12.61
CGPI   COLLAGENEX PHARMACEUTICALS                   7.24     -0.99  -12.22

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