From: evening@ino.com
To: mike.grigsby@enron.com
Date: 2001-12-27 23:05:07+00:00
Subject: Trader, Thursday USD -0.34 CRB -1.42 DOW +43.17 S&P +7.76 NAS
 +15.72

T H U R S D A Y   E V E N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

Thursday: The CRB Index is declining 1.42 points to 192.07. The 
US Dollar Index moved down 0.34 points to 117.57.

The Dow Industrials advanced 43.17 points, at 10131.31, while 
the S&P 500 gained 7.76 points, last seen at 1157.13. The 
Nasdaq Composite climbed 15.72 points to 1976.42.
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E X T R E M E   M A R K E T   C O M M E N T A R Y
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The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

Stock indexes were higher on Thursday as strength in Advance Micro
Devices and continued strength in Yahoo underpinned today's rallies.
The NASDAQ continues to consolidate above key fib support crossing at
1905.53. Closes above last week's high at 2010.91 are needed to
temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The March S&P 500
index posted its highest close in nearly two and a half weeks on
Thursday. The persistent rebound off the 25% retracement level of
this fall's rally crossing at 1120.66 has set the stage for a
possible test of December's high crossing at 1176 by early-January. 

The Dow posted a quiet inside day with a modestly higher close on
Thursday as it consolidated above the 62% retracement level of the
May/September decline crossing at 10,094.10 at 10,088. Technology
stocks supported today's rally however, trading volume was light due
to the holidays. 

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday and in the process posted a
key reversal up. Additional strength will be needed on Thursday to
confirm today's bullish reversal pattern. However, closes above
December's reaction high crossing at 102-05 will be need to confirm a
bottom and trend change has taken place. Until then look for sideways
trading to continue into early-January. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. 

The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The CRB index posted a key reversal down on Thursday due to weakness
in cattle, precious metals, fiber, and energies. Today's high fell
short of testing of the 25% retracement level of this year's decline
crossing at 194.76. The CRB index is at a crossroads as it
consolidates below the 25% retracement level and this year's
downtrend line crossing near 195.35. Unless these resistance levels
are cleared, it would appear as though a double top might be forming
with today's bearish reversal pattern. 

ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

The energy markets closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as
the market position itself ahead of this week's API inventory report
and Friday's OPEC meeting. The market is expecting this week's API
inventory report to be bullish, which has helped temper some of
today's losses. Light pressure also came from today's bearish AGA
inventor report for natural gas, which was the second-smallest draw
on inventories for the corresponding week in December since the AGA
started its weekly report in 1994. 

February crude oil closed modestly lower on Thursday and settled
below the previous reaction high crossing at 21.05. A late day rally
tempered some of today's losses as February closed mid-range thereby
leaving the door open for sideways trading on Friday. A bullish API
inventory report on Friday could provide the catalyst needed to
extend this month's rally. The 38% retracement level of this fall's
decline crossing at 21.77, then November's high at 22.83 are
potential targets later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. 

February heating oil closed lower on Thursday but remained above
broken resistance crossing at 57.80 thereby keeping the door open for
a possible test of November's reaction high crossing at 64.35 later
this winter. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for
sideways trading on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into
early-January. 

February unleaded gas posted an inside day with a lower close on
Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's gains, which appear
to have been overdone. However, today's mid-range close leaves the
door open for sideways trading on Friday. Momentum indicators are
bullish signaling that additional gains are possible into
early-January. If this week's rally continues, November's high
crossing at 62.31 is February's next target. 

February Henry Hub natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday
following today's bearish AGA inventory report. The report showed a
draw of 81 bcf on U.S. inventories, which was slightly above industry
expectations however, there were too many people caught in January
and were forced to liquidate, which pulled the rest of the contracts
lower on the day. Several long-term weather forecasts are calling for
a bitter cold snap towards mid-January, which might help limit, any
short-term losses. However, traders are cautious about cold-weather
predictions after two months of above normal temps this fall. Closes
below 2.58 would renew this fall's decline as we begin the new year.

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies

The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it continues to
consolidate some of Monday's gains. A rebound ahead of the close
tempered some of today's loss leaving the door open for sideways
trading on Friday. March's failure to close above November's high
crossing at 118.27 on Thursday raises the possibility that this
week's high might have marked a double top. If the rally continues,
the 75% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at 119.57
is March's next upside target. 

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday due to short
covering. Session highs spiked above broken support crossing at .5973
however, March remained below this fall's trading range. I would not
be surprised to see March consolidate below broken trading range
support for the balance of the year. If the decline resumes, fib
support crossing at .5722 is March's next target. 

The March Canadian Dollar posted a potential key reversal up on
Thursday after testing November's low at .6230 earlier in the day.
March's inability to push through this support level triggered a
short covering rally however, gains were tempered due to a late-day
sell off before the close. Today's mid-range close leaves the door
open for sideways trading on Friday. 

The March Japanese Yen extended its decline off September's high on
Thursday and is poised to test monthly fib support crossing at .7568
in the near future. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible into early-January.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

February gold closed lower on Thursday and is breakout out below
December's uptrend line crossing near 277.80. Multiple closes below
this support level are needed to confirm today's trendline breakout,
which would then open the door for sideways to lower prices into
early-January. Today's decline turned stochastics and the RSI neutral
to bearish hinting that a short-term top is in or near. 

March silver closed lower on Thursday and below the 62% retracement
level of this fall's decline crossing at 4.51 thereby increasing the
odds that a short-term top is in place or near. Stochastics and the
RSI are very overbought and turning bearish with this week's setback
warning bullish traders to use caution. A downturn by the ADX is
needed to confirm that the rebound off November's high has come to an
end. 

March copper closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of
Wednesday's gain. March has become range bound between the 50%
retracement level of November's rally crossing at 67.50 and below the
reaction high crossing at 69.45. A breakout in either direction of
this trading range is needed to clear up near-term direction in the
market. Short-term momentum indicators are turning bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible into early- January. 

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

March corn closed higher on Thursday due to light short covering
ahead of this week's export sales report due out Friday morning.
Today's rebound fell short of testing broken support crossing at 2.10
1/4 thereby leaving the door open for a possible test of weekly
support crossing at 2.04 1/4 later this winter. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible into early-January. Producer selling is almost non-existent
and is likely to remain that way until mid-January when cash
merchandisers expect producers to resume cash sales. 

March wheat closed higher on Thursday following today's announcement
that Egypt purchased up to 120,000 metric tonnes of U.S. soft red
winter wheat along with 180,000 metric tonnes of Australian standard
white wheat. This news triggered a short covering rally that erased
all of Wednesday's losses. Today's high-range close leaves the door
open for sideways to higher trading on Friday if tomorrow's export
sales report comes in neutral to friendly. From a broader
perspective, March wheat needs to close above trendline resistance
crossing near 2.94 or below trendline support crossing near 2.83 to
clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI
returned to bullish modes with today's rally signaling that sideways
to higher prices are still possible near-term. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

March soybeans closed steady on Thursday as positioning ahead of
January deliveries and year-end position squaring dominated today's
trading. Strong U.S. exports and domestic demand are being offset by
rising South American crop prospects and forecasts calling for record
global ending stocks. This week's breakout below trading range
support crossing at 4.32 1/2 has opened the door for a possible test
of weekly support crossing at 4.23 1/2 in the near future. 

March soybean meal closed slightly higher on Thursday due to light
short covering amidst strong domestic demand. However, this week's
move to new lows for December has opened the door for a likely test
of April's low crossing at 142 later this winter. This week's export
sales report is not expected to hold any surprises for the market,
which will leave meal looking towards soybeans for near-term
direction. It will take closes above this summer's downtrend line
crossing near 151.90 to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken
place. 

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

February hogs posted an inside day with a higher close due to
spillover support from sharply higher belly prices. Short covering
ahead of Friday's quarterly hogs and pigs report also provided light
support to the market. The trade is expecting tomorrow's report to be
neutral to bullish. However, this month's run up in prices appears to
have already factored in a modest amount of bullish news in the
upcoming report. February hogs are poised to test this summer's
downtrend line crossing near 56.40. Closes above this resistance
level would open the door for a larger- degree rebound into
early-January. 

February cattle posted a downside reversal on Thursday, as traders
were disappointed over the lack of an established cash price. While
temps are running below normal across cattle feeding country, there
are no storms to disrupt movement, which is short-term bearish.
Technically, the door remains open for February cattle to try and
test November's high crossing at 71.35. Momentum indicators are
bullish but nearing their respective overbought zones hinting that
February cattle may struggle to overcome this resistance level. 

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

March coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as
it consolidated some of last Friday's loss. Closes below 46.00 are
needed to confirm last Friday's key reversal down, which would then
set the stage for a likely test of this month's low crossing at
44.75. Closes below 44.75 would confirm a breakout into new contract
lows thereby opening the door for a possible test of psychological
support crossing at 40-cents later this winter. Expectations for a
bumper Brazilian crop this spring along with expectations that
Vietnam might be an aggressive seller of their crop after the first
of the year will likely keep pressure on the market into January. 

March cocoa posted a key reversal on Thursday filling last week's gap
at 1297. Thin holiday trading allowed local traders to run buy stops,
which exaggerated today's rally. Meanwhile purchases at Ivory Coast
ports are running well ahead of last year's pace during the height of
the shipping season. March will need to close above 1365 or below
1212 to clear up near-term direction in the market. 

March sugar gapped above December's downtrend line on Thursday
thereby confirming that last week's spike below the 50% retracement
level of this fall's rally crossing at 698 marked a short-term
bottom. However, the mid-range close leaves the door open for
sideways trading on Friday. Today's rally turned stochastics and the
RSI bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
into early-January. 

March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as
it consolidates above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line. Trading was
subdued ahead of tomorrow's weekly export sales report. Export demand
needs to remain strong in order to sustain this week's anemic
trendline breakout. News that China may see a significant cutback in
cotton acreage this coming year also provided light support to the
market. 

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E X T R E M E   F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/

WINNERS

PBH2   Frozen Pork Bellies Mar 2002               79.925     3.000  +3.90
LBN2   Random Length Lumber Jul 2002              269.00     10.00  +3.73
RAH2   South African Rand Mar 2002              0.083300  0.002300  +2.80
WH2    Wheat Mar 2002                                291     6 1/2  +2.28
XWH2   Wheat Mar 2002                                291     6 1/2  +2.28
NKM2   Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2002               10240       200  +1.95
EJH2   Euro/Japanese Yen Mar 2002                 115.44      1.53  +1.34
LHG2   Lean Hogs Feb 2002                         56.125     0.675  +1.22
SMV2   Soybean Meal Oct 2002                       145.8       1.5  +1.04
MVH2   Value Line Index. Mini Mar 2002           1253.20     12.70  +1.02

LOSERS

OJF2   Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Jan 2002        89.95     -2.80  -3.01
RRF2   Rough Rice Jan 2002                         3.800    -0.090  -2.31
CTN3   Cotton Jul 2003                             46.80     -0.60  -1.27
XEH2   Soybean Meal Mar 2002                       145.4      -1.4  -0.97
AGM2   Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2002                   4.500    -0.043  -0.95
XLG2   Live Cattle Feb 2002                        70.15     -0.63  -0.89
DAG2   BFP Milk Feb 2002                           11.60     -0.10  -0.85
LCG2   Live Cattle Feb 2002                       70.150    -0.550  -0.78
GIF2   Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Jan 2002     174.40     -1.30  -0.74
CRY0   CRB/Bridge index Cash                      192.07     -1.42  -0.73

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E X T R E M E   S T O C K S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/

WINNERS

OHB    ORLEANS HOMEBUILDERS                         7.00      1.41  +26.16
FCEL   FUELCELL ENERGY INC                       17.9000    2.6800  +17.57
GEG    GLOBAL POWER EQUIP GRP                      14.70      2.10  +16.67
SSSS   STEWART & STEVENSON                       19.9400    2.8375  +16.54
PLUG   PLUG POWER                                 9.0800    1.2200  +15.74
NMTI   NMT MEDICAL INC                            9.3190    1.2500  +15.72
MOSY   MONOLITHIC SYSTEM TECH                    20.6900    2.6900  +14.74
CNCT   CONNETICS CORP                            13.9500    1.7100  +14.38
EMITF  ELBIT MEDICAL IMAGING                      6.5000    0.8490  +13.65
UAG    UNITED AUTO GROUP                           26.20      3.15  +13.61

LOSERS

FLY    AIRLEASE LTD L.P.                            7.00     -1.40  -16.57
SLAB   SILICON LABORATORIES                      34.1800   -5.9000  -14.73
SMDI   SIRENZA MICRODEVICES INC                   6.1300   -0.9900  -13.96
CXW-A  CORRECTIONS CORP OF AMER PFD A              18.90     -2.68  -12.42
ENE-J  ENRON CORP $10.50 CV 2ND PFD                15.80     -2.25  -12.00
JPST   JPS INDUSTRIES INC                         5.8800   -0.6900  -11.56
CBR    CIBER INC                                    9.25     -1.16  -11.14
RNDC   RAINDANCE COMMUNICATIONS INC               5.5800   -0.6900  -10.97
IIJI   INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN INC              6.3000   -0.7800  -10.91
UNEWY  UNITED BUSINESS MEDIA PLC                  6.7000   -0.7000  -9.33
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