From: owner-eveningmba@haas.berkeley.edu
To: haasnewswire@haas.berkeley.edu
Date: 2000-10-16 18:01:00+00:00
Subject: Recession Risk is Rising, According to Research by Professor
 Kenneth Rosen

Haas NewsWire
October 16, 2000


 CONTENTS Recession Risk is Rising, According to Research by Professor 
Kenneth Rosen FCC Commissioner to Speak at Workshop on "Regulating on the 
Technological Edge" Thomas Siebel Inaugurates Second Year of Fisher Center 
Seminar Series Former Oracle President and COO Ray Lane Predicts the Future 
for Dot-Coms  Dean Emeritus Earl "Budd" Cheit Honored by Cal Performances New 
Faces at Haas Haas in the News Happening at Haas Haas Celebrations


RECESSION RISK IS RISING, ACCORDING TO RESEARCH BY PROFESSOR KENNETH ROSEN
The risk that the US economy is headed for a recession is rising, according 
to new research by Prof. Kenneth Rosen, co-chair of the Fisher Center for 
Real Estate and Urban Economies at the Haas School, and his co-author Amanda 
Howard, senior analyst at the consulting firm RCG. Rosen and Howard based 
their conclusion on a study of eight leading economic indicators.

"While advancements in technology have enabled notable productivity 
improvements, those gains are over-stated," say the authors about the 
argument that increased productivity levels will continue to ward off a 
recession. "The US sits on the high end of an economic seesaw, held up by a 
series of related -- and increasingly less sturdy -- imbalances."

High oil prices, a tight labor market, and a potentially weaker dollar will 
encourage price and wage inflation, and potentially even higher interest 
rates, say the authors. At the same time, likely declines in foreign 
investment and venture capital funding would encourage the stock market 
bubble to burst and thus reduce consumer spending.

As the technology sector continues to contract and without venture capital 
funding to support the large percentage of unprofitable Internet businesses, 
a substantial number of jobs will be lost, argue Howard and Rosen. Under 
these circumstances, the record level of private sector debt and the negative 
personal savings rate would become increasingly problematic.

"It is the interaction of all of these imbalances that make the risk of a 
recession so great," conclude the authors. 

FCC COMMISSIONER TO SPEAK AT WORKSHOP ON "REGULATING ON THE TECHNOLOGICAL 
EDGE"
 Federal Communications Commissioner Michael K. Powell will give the keynote 
address to the "Regulating on the Technological Edge" workshop on Friday, 
October 20, at 4:00 p.m. in the Arthur Andersen Auditorium. All faculty, 
students, staff, and alumni are invited to attend this speech. 

Powell has served as a commissioner since 1997. Prior to joining the FCC, 
Powell was chief of staff to the Antitrust Division of the Department of 
Justice. He earned his JD from Georgetown University and clerked for a judge 
on United States Court of Appeals before he joined the Washington DC law firm 
of O'Melveny & Meyers LLP. In his practice he focused on regulatory matters 
involving telecommunications, antitrust, and employment law. 

This speech is the only event in the workshop series that is open to the 
public. The regulation workshop is an invitation-only event for academics, 
regulators, and industry leaders geared towards addressing the issue of 
regulation of emerging technologies. For more information, contact Anita 
Patterson at 510-642-4233.

THOMAS SIEBEL INAUGURATES SECOND YEAR OF FISHER CENTER SEMINAR SERIES
 The founder of one of the fastest growing companies in America, Thomas 
Siebel, chairman and CEO of Siebel Systems, is coming to Haas to share the 
secrets of his success with the Haas community on Tuesday, October 31, as the 
first speaker in this year's Fisher Center E-Commerce Executives Seminar 
series. 

All students, faculty, staff, and alumni are invited to attend the seminar, 
which takes place Tuesday, October 31, from 12:30 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. in the 
Wells Fargo Room. Seats will be given on a first-come, first-served basis.

Siebel Systems provides an integrated set of e-business application software 
that enables multi-channel sales, marketing, and customer service systems to 
be deployed over the Web, call centers, the field, resellers, retail, and 
dealer networks.? Siebel Systems has grown from $50,000 in revenues in 1994 
to $791 million in 1999. 

Siebel was recognized as one of the top 25 managers in the world by 
BusinessWeek in January 2000 and Siebel Systems was named the fastest growing 
company in 1999 by Fortune magazine. Siebel has authored two books on 
selling. His current book Cyber Rules, which details his business principles, 
was published in April 1999. 

Siebel began his career as employee number 50 at Oracle, after earning his 
bachelor's in History, a master's in Computer Science, and an MBA from the 
University of Illinois.? In 1990, he left Oracle and became CEO of Cayenne 
Systems, which he renamed Gain Technology and merged with Sybase. In 1993 he 
founded Siebel Systems.

FORMER ORACLE PRESIDENT AND COO RAY LANE PREDICTS THE FUTURE FOR DOT-COMS
Raymond J. Lane, former president of Oracle Corporation and new general 
partner at the Silicon Valley venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & 
Byers (KPCB), will give his vision of the future of the New Economy to the 
Haas community on Friday, November 3, at 4:00 p.m. This event is the first of 
the 2000-2001 Business Faculty Research Dialogue: Shakeout in Cyberspace: 
What's Next for the Dot Coms. The event is open to the entire Haas School 
community. 

Since his change in positions, Lane has been quoted extensively that he 
believes the venture business is going to shift from just funding companies 
to playing an even larger role in building those companies. He told the 
Associated Press that KPCB will help to create the survivors in the impending 
dot-com shakeout. 

Lane has stated that the changes at Oracle announced by founder Larry Ellison 
sped up his departure, which he announced just before the July 4th weekend. 
Lane left Oracle with no severance package and had to give up $300 million in 
unvested stock options. Lane originally joined Oracle as president of Oracle 
USA after working as a senior partner in the consulting firm of Booz Allen & 
Hamilton. 

Lane has also stressed that his leaving Oracle was part of trying to create 
balance in his life, noting that the KPCB offices are just 5 minutes from his 
house. In addition, Lane and his wife have an 18-month-old son at home and a 
second child due in November. More information on Lane can be found at 
http://www.kpcb.com/.

The Business Faculty Research Dialogues will be sponsored again this year by 
the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy and California 
Management Review. 

Lane will speak in the Haas School's Arthur Andersen Auditorium at 4:00 p.m. 
on Friday November 3. There will be a reception at 5:00 p.m. following the 
lecture in the School's Bank of America Forum. Please contact Meredith 
LaCorte in the dean's office to reserve a space at either the lecture or the 
reception.? She can be reached at 510-643-2027 or in email at 
lacorte@haas.berkeley.edu.

DEAN EMERITUS EARL "BUDD" CHEIT HONORED BY CAL PERFORMANCES
 Earl F. Cheit, dean emeritus of the Haas School, was honored with a gala 
celebration at the Cal Performances Season opening in September. Cheit is the 
founding chair of Cal Performances. Cheit's involvement with Cal Performances 
began in the early 70s when he served on the Committee for Arts and Lectures, 
the organization that became Cal Performances.? Now that his term has ended 
he is stepping down as chair, but will continue to serve on the Board of 
Trustees.

Cheit served as the Haas School dean from 1976 to 1982.? Among his many 
achievements was establishing awards for outstanding teaching to faculty 
selected and presented by students. The first award was presented in 1976 to 
Andrew Shogan, now associate dean for instruction. When Cheit concluded his 
term as dean, the school, on student initiative, renamed the awards the Cheit 
Outstanding Teaching Awards.

NEW FACES AT HAAS
 New Program Coordinator for Young Entrepreneurs at Haas Ajuah Helton has 
been appointed the program coordinator for the Young Entrepreneurs at Haas. 
She graduated in 1997 from Clark Atlanta University and spent time in the 
Teach For America program and is a former Summer bridge program 
administrator. At the Haas School, she will support the two-year Young 
Entrepreneurs entrepreneurship training and college preparation program for 
East Bay high school youth. She can be reached at 510-643-0923 or via e-mail 
at helton@haas.berkeley.edu. Her office is located at F412.

 New Student Services and Admissions Assistant for the Undergraduate Program 
Alison Mae Thompson has joined the Undergraduate Program office as the 
Student Services and Admissions Assistant. She holds a bachelors degree in 
history from UC Berkeley. On a personal note, she says that she plans to 
attend veterinary school in a few years and that she makes very good mashed 
potatoes.? She can be reached at 510-642-1421 or via e-mail at 
athompso@haas.berkeley.edu.? Her office is in S450. 

 New Database Administrator for the Development and Alumni Affairs Database 
Team Wendy A. Peter has joined the Development staff at the database 
administrator. She will help maintain data in the school's database, create 
reports, coordinate database consistency with the online alumni database, 
provide technical support, and track gift stewardship. Wendy was a pastry 
chef for ten years before coming to Haas. She also worked for the Boston New 
York AIDS ride from 1997 to 2000. On the home front, she reports that she has 
a dog named Ethel. She can be reached at 510-642-3235 or via e-mail at 
wpeter@haas.berkeley.edu. Her office is in S520. 

HAAS IN THE NEWS
 Severin Borenstein, the E.T. Grether Professor in Public Policy and Business 
Administration and the director of University of California Energy Institute, 
was quoted in the San Francisco Chronicle on October 16. In "Apparent Deal 
for Chevron to Buy Texaco," Borenstein commented that the increased 
consolidation in the refining business should raise alarm bells at the 
Federal Trade Commission. 

Borenstein was on KRON TV on October 15. He discussed oil/gasoline and the 
electricity deregulation situation.? Borenstein said that California 
electricity markets are not as competitive as they need to be. He also 
dispelled the myth that the growth in electricity demand is being driven by 
Internet or computer use (which accounts for only about 2% of electricity 
demand, not the 8-13% that the media sometimes report).

David Aaker, professor emeritus, was quoted in the Los Angeles Times on 
October 14 in an article titled "Nike Takes Its Case to the Streets." Aaker 
said that Nike's new logo-free advertising campaign is worth it if creates 
buzz and connects with customers. 

Borenstein was quoted on October 14 in the San Francisco Chronicle on the 
possible Chevron merger with Texaco, saying that it could give them deeper 
pockets to finance oil exploration.

Borenstein was quoted in the Contra Costa Times on October 13 on the effect 
the Middle East conflict could have on gasoline prices.

Borenstein appeared on KRON TV? on October 13 on "Daybreak." Borenstein said 
that the decline in auto fuel efficiency has exacerbated the problem of 
rising oil prices.

Dean Laura Tyson appeared on the Nightly Business Report on KQED TV on 
October 12. She discussed the Social Security system and likened it to a 
pay-as-you-go social insurance system.

Greg Duffee, assistant professor in the Finance Group, was quoted in the San 
Jose Mercury News on the risks of investing in put options. Duffee explained 
that companies often sell put options when they have confidence that they are 
financially sound. 

Tyson was quoted in USA Today on October 12 on UC Berkeley professor Daniel 
McFadden winning this year's Nobel Prize in economics. 

The October 12 Independent of London mentioned Information Rules by Hal 
Varian, dean of the School of Information Management and Systems and Haas 
professor, and Carl Shapiro, Transamerica Professor of Business Strategy and 
director of the Institute of Business and Economics Research (IBER), in an 
article about high prices for consumers shopping on the Internet. 

Pete Sealey, adjunct professor in the Marketing Group, was quoted on Red 
Herring.com on October 11. Sealey commented that if the AOL/Time Warner 
merger were approved, all media companies would have to rethink their 
strategies to take online markets into account. 

Borenstein appeared on KTVU TV October 10 and spoke about the effect that the 
problems in the Middle East could have on oil and gasoline prices. He said 
that oil prices probably wouldn't go much higher, but if a full war broke out 
in the Middle East, they could go to $50/barrel.

Borenstein was quoted in the Los Angeles Times on October 9 in an article 
about Unocal patenting a new fuel.? He commented that in a perfect world this 
patent wouldn't be allowed because it makes consumers worse off. 

The study of online car buying done by Florian Zettelmeyer, assistant 
professor in the Marketing Group, was mentioned in the Raleigh North Carolina 
News and Observer on October 2. 

Tyson's column in BusinessWeek on October 2, "Who has the Better Health Care 
Plan? Gore Does," argued that Vice President Gore's plan for Medicare is more 
fiscally sound than Governor Bush's plan. 

Janet Yellen, the Eugene E. and Catherine M. Trefethen Professor of Business 
Administration and professor in the Department of Economics, was quoted in 
the October Inc. Magazine on the emergence of bartering among cash-crunched 
companies. 

HAPPENING AT HAAS
 Berkeley Forum on Procurement and Marketplace Transformation Critical 
Success Factors for Dot-com Companies with Emphasis on the Construction 
Industry Wednesday, October 18, 2000 9:30 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Wells Fargo Room

The featured speaker is Leo Schlosberg, founder and CEO of Heavyware. 
Panelists include: Rich Brown, Bechtel Corporation; Jerry Engel, executive 
director of the Lester Center; professor Yehuda Kala, School of Architecture, 
UCB; and Professor Arie Segev, director, CITM. The afternoon presentation 
will address Buying Aggregation by Jonathan Ehrlich, co-founder and vice 
president of Corporate Development, MobShop. This event is sponsored by the 
Ford Motor Company, and offered in cooperation with CommerceNet and National 
Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), Silicon Valley Chapter. Note: 
The Forum events are not open to the general public. Attendance (for a 
nominal fee) is limited to invited companies and individuals. Mail 
citm@haas.berkeley.edu to request a registration form, include your job title 
and company name.

 Management of Technology Program "Management Evolution in Silicon Valley," 
by Aart de Geus, founder and chairman, Synopsys, Inc. Wednesday, October 18, 
2000 3:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Room C210, Cheit Hall

Seminars
 BA 298 REAL ESTATE SEMINAR "The Attractiveness and Affordability of China 
and Housing Privatization Programs," by Dr. Tyler Yang, Freddie Mac Monday, 
October 16, 2000 11:15 a.m. Room C250, Cheit Hall For more information, 
contact Lynn L. Lobner, at lyoung@haas.berkeley.edu.

OBIR SEMINAR "Within-Group Agreement and Dispersion: Conceptual Issues and 
Preliminary Findings" by Katherine Klein, University Maryland, Department of 
Psychology Wednesday, October 18, 2000 4:00 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. Director's 
Room, Institute of Industrial Relations, 2521 Channing Way  For more 
information, contact Charles Montague at montague@haas.berkeley.edu.

IDS 270 INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS WORKSHOP "International Perspectives on the 
State of the e-Business Revolution," by Timothy Devinney, AGSM Thursday, 
October 19, 2000 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. Room C325, Cheit Hall For more 
information, contact Anita Patterson at patterso@haas.berkeley.edu.

FINANCE SEMINAR  "Financial Prices with Local Substitution and Distant 
Complementarity" by Jorgen Haug, Norwegian School of Economics & Business 
Administration and UC Berkeley  Thursday, October 19, 2000  4:15 p.m. to 5:45 
p.m.  Room C110, Cheit Hall  For more information, contact June Wong at 
june@haas.berkeley.edu or visit  www.haas.berkeley.edu/finance.

BA 298 REAL ESTATE SEMINAR "Real Estate Cycles in the New Millennium," by Dr. 
Glenn Mueller and Legg Mason, John Hopkins University Monday, October 23, 
2000 11:15 a.m. Room C250, Cheit Hall For more information, contact Lynn L. 
Lobner, at lyoung@haas.berkeley.edu.

OBIR SEMINAR "The Linux Kernel Development as a Model of Knowledge Creation," 
by Gwen Lee, Ph.D. Candidate, Haas School of Business  "A Systems Approach to 
Assessment of TQM impact on Organizational Efficiency, Legitimacy, and E47 
Quality at Different Stages of Adoption," by Kuo Yu, Ph.D. Candidate, Haas 
School of Business Wednesday, October 25, 2000 4:00 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. 
Director's Room, Institute of Industrial Relations, 2521 Channing Way  For 
more information, contact Charles Montague at montague@haas.berkeley.edu.

ET GRETHER MARKETING SEMINAR "Reserves, Regret, and Rejoicing in Open English 
Auctions: An Experimental Study of Decision Making Biases," by Eric 
Greenleaf, New York University Thursday, October 26, 2000 3:30 p.m. to 5:00 
p.m. Room F320 For more information, contact Laura Gardner at 
lgardner@haas.berkeley.edu.

IDS 270 INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS WORKSHOP "Rise and Decline(?) of Internal 
Labor Markets," by David Levine, UC Berkeley Thursday, October 26, 2000 4:00 
p.m. to 6:00 p.m. Room C325, Cheit Hall For more information, contact Anita 
Patterson at patterso@haas.berkeley.edu.

FINANCE SEMINAR  "Portfolio Choice with Many Risky Assets, Market Clearing, 
and Cash Flow  Predictability" by Anthony Lynch, New York University  
Thursday, October 26, 2000  4:15 p.m. to 5:45 p.m.  Room C110, Cheit Hall  
For more information, contact June Wong at june@haas.berkeley.edu or visit  
www.haas.berkeley.edu/finance.

BA 298 REAL ESTATE SEMINAR "Homeowning and the Duration of Unemployment:? 
Evidence from the PSID," by Dr. Richard Green, University of Wisconsin School 
of Business Monday, October 30, 2000 11:15 a.m. Room C250, Cheit Hall For 
more information, contact Lynn L. Lobner, at lyoung@haas.berkeley.edu.

HAAS CELEBRATIONS
 Births Jennifer Berdahl and Jim Colliander are happy to announce the birth 
of their daughter, Helen Elizabeth Berdahl Colliander. She arrived at 2:39 
p.m on October 11, 2000, weighing 8 pounds 7 ounces and measuring 20.5 
inches. Mom, dad, and baby are doing great.

 Birthdays Gary McBride, October 20

The Haas NewsWire respects the wishes of staff and faculty who would not like 
their birthdays announced. Please e-mail a request to have your birthday 
marked "do not announce" on the central birthday list to 
Haasnews@haas.berkeley.edu. 

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