From: chip.schneider@enron.com
To: louise.kitchen@enron.com, f..calger@enron.com, david.duran@enron.com, l..barbour@enron.com, rick.bittner@enron.com, kortney.brown@enron.com, andre.cangucu@enron.com, becky.caudle@enron.com, wendy.conwell@enron.com, lacrecia.davenport@enron.com, xochitl.figueroa@enron.com, vladimir.gorny@enron.com, sherri.griffin@enron.com, frank.hayden@enron.com, kenneth.horton@enron.com, felipe.ibarra@enron.com, tracy.ngo@enron.com, david.port@enron.com, paul.radous@enron.com, tanya.rohauer@enron.com, edward.sacks@enron.com, chip.schneider@enron.com, a..soo@enron.com
Date: 2001-09-24 14:14:22+00:00
Subject: FW: CSFB Independent Power Weekly--Issue #44



-----Original Message-----
From: Stein, Neil [mailto:neil.stein@csfb.com]
Sent: Monday, September 24, 2001 7:52 AM
To: undisclosed-recipients
Subject: CSFB Independent Power Weekly--Issue #44


 <<IPW092401.pdf>> 
Good Morning,

Attached, please find the latest issue of our Independent Power Weekly.

Also note that there is a replay available of our conference call, which
took place last week.  The dial-in number is 402/220-7493.  The PIN # is
7493.  The call featured Judah Rose from ICF Consulting.  Topics discussed
included: 1. Recent trends in the US power market; 2. Their impact on the
generation supply chain; and, 3. The relationship between GDP and power
demand.  A copy of the slides that accompanied Judah's presentation is
available upon request.  

Summary:
1. IPP's Fall 5.1%   Last week our our IPP composite declined 15.4%,
outperforming the NASDAQ (-15.7%), but underperforming the S&P 500 (-11.1%).
NRG Energy, which was down 8.8%, was the strongest generator in the group.
International Power was the weakest performer, declining 30.5%.

2. Generation Oriented Utilities Fall 6.9%   Our universe of generation
oriented utilities fell 6.9%, outperforming all the major market indices.
DTE Energy, which was down 2.7%, was the strongest performer in the group.
PPL was the weakest performer, declining 13.5%.

3. IPPs Trading 24% Below Private Market Asset Value   Importantly, our
analysis indicates that all the major US IPPs are now trading at or below
the private market values of their assets.  As a group, the major IPPs are
trading at a 24% average discount to their private market asset values.  NRG
Energy and Reliant Resources are trading at the most significant discounts
to their private market values-33% and 34%.  

4. Disparity Between Public and Private Market Valuations is Unsustainable
We believe this situation is unsustainable and envision 3 scenarios that
could play out.  1. Stock prices may simply rebound correcting the valuation
disparity; 2. IPPs limit the amount of capital allocated to new plant
construction and pursue share buybacks or acquisitions of other IPPs; or, 3.
Traditional utilities (both domestic and foreign) or other entities from
outside the industry pursue acquisitions of IPPs.  

Regards,

Neil Stein   212/325-4217

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