From: evening@ino.com
To: alewis@ect.enron.com
Date: 2001-06-04 21:11:44+00:00
Subject: Andrew, Monday CRB -0.37 DOW +71.11 USD +0.27 S&P +6.44 NAS +6.49

M O N D A Y   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

Monday: The CRB Index has retreated 0.37 points to 210.34. The
US Dollar Index edged higher by 0.27 points to 119.16.

The Dow Industrials moved up 71.11 points, at 11061.52, while
the S&P 500 moved higher by 6.44 points, last seen at 1267.11. The
Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 6.49 points to 2155.93.

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E X T R E M E   M A R K E T   C O M M E N T A R Y
_____________________________________________________________________

The STOCK INDEXES closed higher on Monday as they extended last
Friday's short covering rallies. Light support came from biotech
stocks however trading was rather light. Session highs in the
September S&P 500 index fell short of filling last Wednesday's gap at
1278.50 as the rebound off last week's low still appears corrective
in nature. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq did fill last week's gap but closed
below the opening range leaving the door open for a possible setback
on Tuesday. Momentum indicators remain bearish hinting that
additional weakness near-term is possible. If the declines resume,
May's reaction lows are potential targets.

The Dow managed to close higher on Monday led by gains in oil stock
thereby confirming last Friday's key reversal up. If the Dow can post
a higher weekly close it could set the stage for a resumption of this
spring's rally later this month.

INTEREST RATES September bonds extended last week's breakout above
this spring's downtrend line crossing near 100-26, which confirmed
that a bottom has been posted. Much of today's strength was due to
comments made by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan Sunday night that he
sees few signs of inflationary pressure. Downward pressure in the fed
fund futures indicates that there is nearly a 100% chance that the
Federal Reserve Board will raise interest rates by 25- basis points
at the June 26-27 meeting. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices into early-June are possible. If the
rally continues, May's high crossing at 102-22 is September's next
target.

The CRB INDEX posted a potential downside reversal on Monday due to
weakness in grains, meats, precious metals, fiber and crude oil
products. Additional weakness on Tuesday is needed to confirm today's
bearish reversal pattern. The rebound off last week's low that spiked
below April's low was to be expected due to light short covering.
Closes below last week's low crossing at 208.43 would confirm a
downside breakout of this spring's trading range thereby renewing its
decline off January's high.

ENERGY MARKETS were mostly lower on Monday despite the fact that Iraq
made good on its threat to cut oil exports unless it receives a
six-month extension of the oil-for-food deal. The late-session sell
off was triggered by questions over Iraq's resolve to halt crude oil
exports for any significant length of time.

July crude oil closed higher on Monday but near session lows as early
strength faded into the close. If the decline off May's high
continues, the 50% retracement level of the December/May rally
crossing at 27.51 is July's next target. Momentum indicators are
bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible.

July heating oil posted a downside reversal on Monday and closed
below the 38% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at
75.66. Closes below last week's low of 75.10 would renew the decline
off May's high and set the stage for a test of May's reaction low
crossing at 74.55, which coincides with the 50% retracement level of
this spring's rally.

July unleaded gas posted a huge key reversal down on Monday despite
news that Iraq has halted crude oil exports. However, today's action
indicates that traders do not believe that the crude oil embargo by
Iraq will have long- lasting effects on the market. In recent
weeks-unleaded gasoline supplies have risen enough to temper concerns
over summer gasoline supplies. Additional weakness on Tuesday along
with a close below 90.30 would renew July's decline off May's high
thereby opening the door for a possible test of April's gap crossing
at 87.25 later this month.

July Henry Hub natural gas closed higher on Monday due weather
forecasts, which are calling for above normal temps across Texas this
week along with revised predictions for warmer weather in July and
August. Additional support came from indications that industrial
demand is on the rise following this spring's decline. Momentum
indicators are oversold hinting that a short covering bounce is
possible during the first half of June.

CURRENCIES The September Dollar managed to close higher on Monday
after early weakness failed to fill last week's gap at 118.62.
Additional strength on Tuesday would set the stage for a possible
test of weekly resistance that crosses at 121.58 later this month.
The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that
additional weakness is possible.

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Monday hinting
that the corrective bounce off last week's low might be ending. The
recent breakout below support crossing at .5643 has opened the door
for a test of weekly support crossing at .5508 later this month. The
daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) remains in a bearish trend
mode.

The September Canadian Dollar posted a quiet inside day with a lower
close due to light profit taking on Monday. September remains poised
to test trading range resistance crossing at .6541. Multiple closes
above this resistance level are needed to confirm a breakout and
renew the rally off April's low. Momentum indicators are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices during the first half of
June are possible.

The September Japanese Yen was lower on Monday due to light profit
taking. However, it remains above trading range resistance crossing
at .8425 thereby leaving the door open for additional gains
near-term. If the rally continues, gap resistance crossing at .8625
is September's next target. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling
that additional gains are possible.

PRECIOUS METALS August gold closed lower on Monday as it is poised to
renew its decline off May's high. Last week's trendline breakout has
opened the door for additional weakness near-term with the reaction
low crossing at 263.20 being the next likely target. Stochastics and
RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible.

July silver resumed its decline on Monday and is poised to test May's
low at 4.315 later this week. Multiple closes below this support
level would confirm a breakout and open the door for a likely test of
weekly support crossing at 4.15 later this month. Momentum indicators
are bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is likely.

July copper closed steady on Monday following a spike below May's low
at 74.75 earlier in the session. A short covering bounce ahead of the
close erased early session lows leaving the door open for additional
short covering on Tuesday. Multiple closes below today's low would
confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range while opening the
door for a test of weekly support crossing at 74.10 later this month.
Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices near-term are possible.

GRAINS July corn posted an inside day with a lower close. Weakness
was tied to forecast that call for warmer and dryer weather
conditions across the Midwest later this week. Additional pressure
came from spillover selling from wheat and today's disappointing
export inspection report that came in at 17.595 verses 32.383 million
bushels. However, losses were limited due to expectations for a
decline in this afternoon's crop conditions report due to the
cool/wet weather, which continues to dominate Midwest weather. The
latest condition report shows that 7% is rated poor/very poor, 29% is
fair, and 64% is rated good/excellent. This is a decline from last
week's levels and should provide light support in overnight trade and
possibly on Tuesday. Last week's breakout above May's downtrend line
signals that a short-term bottom has been posted. If the rebound
continues, May's high at 2.11 1/2 is July's next upside target.

July wheat plunged lower on Monday filling last Friday's gap and
erasing over half of last week's gains due to improving weather
conditions across the Plains. Warmer and drier conditions are
expected to speed up the winter wheat harvest while rain is
forecasted for Montana and western Canada, which have been dry.
Moisture is also forecasted for dry parts of China this week. Today's
sell off took much of the wind out of the bulls sails as the market
has been unable to clear May's downtrend line, which is needed to
confirm that a short-term bottom is in place. This afternoon's crop
condition report showed that 25% is rated poor/very poor, 36% is
fair, and 39% is rated good/excellent. This is a decline from last
week's level and could lead to a short covering bounce on Tuesday.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX July soybeans closed lower on Monday however, a short
covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses.
Session lows spiked below broken trading range resistance as the
market rechecked the recent breakout. Momentum indicators remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices during the first
half of June is still possible. If the rally continues, March's high
crossing at 4.77 3/4 is July's next target. This afternoon's planting
progress report showed that 80% of the soybean crop has been planted
compared with the five-year average of 75%. The condition report
showed that 10% is rated poor/very poor, 34% is rated fair, and 56%
is rated good/excellent. I am look for July to trade steady to higher
on Tuesday.

July soybean meal posted an upside reversal on Monday as the market
continues to consolidate in a relatively narrow trading range. Closes
above 168 or below 159.60 are needed to clear up near-term direction
in the market. Strong domestic and export demand continues to offset
bearish weather forecast for the Midwest and portions of China.

LIVESTOCK August hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on
Monday due to light profit taking as it consolidated some of last
week's gains. Nevertheless, the door remains open for a test of
April's high crossing at 65.95 later this month. Much of today's
pressure was due to spillover selling from the limit-down close in
bellies. Losses were limited due to the steady to 75-cent higher cash
bids. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices into early-June are possible.

August cattle closed lower on Monday on ideas that cash and boxed
beef markets may be topping. The relatively low volume of cash sales
last week indicates that there might be a larger showlist this week.
Momentum indicators are bullish but have become overbought warning
traders to use caution as a top may be near. While the door is still
open for a possible test of this year's high crossing at 75.00,
additional weakness on Tuesday could trigger a round of
long-liquidation.

FOOD & FIBER July coffee closed higher on Monday as it posted a key
reversal up due to short covering. Today's rally was triggered by
talk of possible cold weather moving into Brazil's coffee growing
regions later this week. Additional support came from the latest
commitments of trader's report, which showed that funds had
significantly reduced their long positions. Additional strength on
Tuesday is needed to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern.

July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's breakout
below trading range support crossing at 955. Momentum indicators
remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If the
decline continues, the 75% retracement level at 862 is July's next
target.

July sugar closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's short
covering bounce off the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally
crossing at 857. While another day or two of consolidation is
possible, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are still possible. If the decline continues, fib
support crossing at 832 then 808 are targets.

July cotton posted a key reversal down on Monday but remains above
psychological support crossing at 40-cents. Early support came from
news of increasing crop losses across west Texas cotton due to
flooding. However, early strength failed to trigger follow-through
buying, which triggered a technical sell off into the close.
Additional weakness on Tuesday is needed to confirm today's bearish
reversal pattern, which could lead to a resumption of this spring's
decline later this month.

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T O P   N E W S
_____________________________________________________________________

STOCKS

Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei up 0.4% in directionless quiet trade
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25632
Add1: US Equities Review: Modestly higher in thin trade
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25630
UK Stocks Review: Strong oils, Marconi takeover talks boost FTSE
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25638

FOREX

US FX Review: Euro resumes losses as ECB intervention is nixed
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25634
Asia FX Review: EUR/JPY buying supports USD/JPY and EUR/USD
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25631
Europe FX Review: Euro hand back modest gains
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25633

CREDIT

US Credit Review: Bond up after Greenspan's tame inflation view
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25629
Europe Credit Review: Mkt holiday limits reaction to Greenspan
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25635
Japan Credit Review: June near flat in slow, choppy trades
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25637

COMMODITIES

US Futures Summary: Gasoline, juice, wheat dive; natural gas up
   http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25636

EXCHANGES

Toronto Stock Exchange Fines Yorkton Securities
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24516
TGE Appoints New Executive Managing Director
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24515
NYBOT Announces Cotton Futures Delivery Specification Changes
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24514
Floor Broker Charged With Violating 1999 CFTC Order
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24513
CBOT's May Trading Volume Rises 18.6% From April
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24512
LIFFE Year-To-Date Value Up 52%
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24511
Philadelphia Sets Options And Sectors Index Records
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24510
Nasdaq Europe's Trading System Starting June 8
   http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24509

____________________________________________________________________________

E X T R E M E   F U T U R E S
____________________________________________________________________________

Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/

WINNERS

NGN1   Henry Hub Natural Gas Jul 2001              4.069     0.150  +3.82
LBF2   Random Length Lumber Jan 2002              313.00     10.00  +3.30
KCN1   Coffee 'C' Jul 2001                         59.45      1.65  +2.85
ZM1    U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001          103 184/256   2 15/32  +2.44
DAV1   BFP Milk Oct 2001                           14.75      0.35  +2.43
RRN1   Rough Rice Jul 2001                         5.920     0.140  +2.42
HOX2   Heating Oil Nov 2002                       0.7038    0.0161  +2.29
SBH3   Sugar #11 World Mar 2003                     7.51      0.15  +2.02
HUK2   New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline May 20    0.8256    0.0150  +1.81
SIF2   Silver Jan 2002                             4.424     0.070  +1.55

LOSERS

PBN1   Frozen Pork Bellies Jul 2001               79.175    -3.000  -3.65
OJN1   Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Jul 2001        77.90     -2.20  -2.74
WN1    Wheat Jul 2001                            263 1/2    -7 1/4  -2.68
XWN1   Wheat Jul 2001                            263 1/2    -7 1/4  -2.68
KWN1   Wheat Jul 2001                            319 3/4    -8 1/2  -2.59
HUN1   New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Jul 20    0.9077   -0.0240  -2.57
AGM1   Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2001                   4.300    -0.100  -2.27
BON1   Soybean Oil Jul 2001                        15.00     -0.34  -2.22
XRN1   Soybean Oil Jul 2001                        15.00     -0.34  -2.22
ON1    Oats Jul 2001                             112 3/4    -2 1/2  -2.17
____________________________________________________________________________

E X T R E M E   S T O C K S
____________________________________________________________________________

Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/

WINNERS

SUND   SOUND ADVICE                                24.20      9.15  +61.00
SPLX   SIMPLEX SOLUTIONS                           38.20     10.31  +36.82
BPLS   BANK PLUS CORP                               6.92      1.60  +30.19
MDRX   ALLSCRIPTS HLTHCARE SOLUTIONS                6.98      1.60  +29.96
INGN   INTROGEN THERAPEUTICS                        7.05      1.64  +29.23
VIXL   VIXEL CORP                                   5.10      1.03  +25.69
JCC    JILIN CHEMICAL IND ADS                      14.25      2.86  +25.31
GNTA   GENTA INC                                   12.50      2.12  +20.52
HITK   HI-TECH PHARMACAL                            9.25      1.52  +19.02
NEXM   NEXMED INC                                   6.05      0.95  +18.27

LOSERS

CERT   CERTICOM CORP                                5.64     -4.21  -42.74
CMM-B  CRIIMI MAE 10.875% CV PFD                   15.70     -5.45  -25.77
USG    USG CORP                                     5.03     -1.66  -24.81
EMEX   EMEX CORP                                    9.15     -2.75  -23.56
TESTR  TESTR                                        9.87     -2.13  -17.75
NANX   NANOPHASE TECHNOLOGIES                       9.75     -1.97  -16.68
CATT   CATAPULT COMMUNICATIONS                     29.60     -5.55  -15.59
EXPO   EXPONENT INC                                10.25     -1.84  -15.35
EMKR   EMCORE CORP                                 28.38     -5.06  -15.04
MCHM   MACROCHEM CORP                               9.02     -1.35  -12.99

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