From: john.arnold@enron.com
To: steve.lafontaine@bankofamerica.com
Date: 2001-05-23 17:01:28+00:00
Subject: RE: aga forecast

seeing very little buying from end users.  some longer term selling from producers.  have had one guy who sold about 300 month cal 2,3,4.  just gets soaked up in the market though.  some buying is from more generation guys.  duke bot 10,000+ lots of cal 7-13 last week.  also think some guys buying cal 3 so they can sell more in the front.  el paso sold delta equivalent of probably 12-15 a day yesterday.  got soaked right up.  mar/apr way overvalued but so hard to bring in.   just a function of cal 2.  cal 2 been weak as seen a lot of m/m q/q v/v spreads recently, guys trying to buy the front.  hard to believe m/m is flat.  just goes to show how overpriced cal 2 is in my mind...

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	"Lafontaine, Steve" <steve.lafontaine@bankofamerica.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Lafontaine+2C+20Steve+22+20+3Csteve+2Elafontaine+40bankofamerica+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:37 AM
To:	Arnold, John
Subject:	RE: aga forecast


totlly agree on expiration-reason why im not bullsprd the june july . i
covered a little flat px on june est erday but satying short oct delta. sold
some mar/apr as well thinking the curve rolls down. this distillate mkt
getting way too hyped i think as well. ive been long but going a little
short now shudnt be relevant to the natgas fundamentals until 1st q(bullish
then natgas but too late think we'll be full) .
   we not seeing much on the customer side. you? end users getting scared
and longer than normal/stoped buying.hearing all the pipelines still
packed.just wondering if/when the winter strip gets hit-will make mar/apr
come into line.also buying jan/feb vs mar/apr decent condor i think

-----Original Message-----
From: John.Arnold@enron.com [mailto:John.Arnold@enron.com]
Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:40 AM
To: LaFontaine, Steve
Subject: RE: aga forecast


i think i've got yahoo somewhere on my computer.  i'll try to find it.
expecting 110 today.  still think we're not at fundamental equilibrium but
scared that, as much as i hate technicals, the wave 3 is over and we can do
some serious chop here.  if we didnt have expiry in 4 days i'd be worried
about a short covering rally.  however, i think the market is going to have
a hard time placing the baseload gas this month.  the storage guys are all
above their targets right now and expect them to back off relative to last
month.

    -----Original Message-----
   From:   "Lafontaine, Steve" <steve.lafontaine@bankofamerica.com>@ENRON

[mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Lafontaine+2C+20Steve+22+20+3Csteve+2Elafontaine+40ban
kofamerica+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com]


   Sent:   Wednesday, May 23, 2001 10:30 AM
   To:     Arnold, John
   Subject:  RE: aga forecast

   no yahoo and bloomberg professional. the entire oil industry on yahoo.
   ill
   have a hell of a time getting on another syetm due firewall issues
   etc.you
   know coprorate america as you pted out. im getting a few natgas guys and
   brokers on yahoo as well. steve_lafontaine if you can get it loaded. get
   a
   bloomberg terminal-can share news stories etc-excellant fundamental dat
   base
   as well. worth the price and alot of managed money uses as well.

   -----Original Message-----
   From: John.Arnold@enron.com [mailto:John.Arnold@enron.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:26 AM
   To: LaFontaine, Steve
   Subject: RE: aga forecast


   are you on msn messenger.  i think i'm set up with it.

       -----Original Message-----
      From:   "Lafontaine, Steve" <steve.lafontaine@bankofamerica.com>
   @ENRON


[mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Lafontaine+2C+20Steve+22+20+3Csteve+2Elafontaine+40ban
   kofamerica+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com]


      Sent:   Wednesday, May 23, 2001 8:45 AM
      To:     jarnold@enron.com
      Subject:  FW: aga forecast

      hey johnny-my numbers. i think next week more like 105 ish but we'll
      see.
      any thots on flat px here? i still say med term lower to the low 3.00
      area/maybe lower.
        wud you please get on bloomberg or yahho inst messanger we can mkt
      chat
      w/out a 3 day lag????? fyi-our end user buying has stepped outta the
   way
      now
      on this lower px level. so less support from them.
       good seeing you the other nite-wud have liked to have gone out w/you
      guys
      but early meeting sat
      regards

      >  -----Original Message-----
      > From:      LaFontaine, Steve
      > Sent:      Tuesday, May 22, 2001 12:09 PM
      > To:   'rpetrol@aol.com'
      > Subject:   FW: aga forecast
      >
      > forecast
      >
      > aga forecast
      >
      >           this week        next week       same week last year   y
   on
      y
      > deficit
      > boa      118                  115                  55
      > -23
      > pira      110                    ?                    56
      > +36
      >
      > we should be going from deficit to year on year surplus by this
   time
      next
      > week. the 7 year average for inventory this week is 1155 vs our
      projection
      > of 1195. this will continue to be taken as very bearish given
   current
      > prices are still well above the historical average price implied by
      that
      > inventory level.