13 May 2019 no relation financial market impact of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic
On 20 February 2020, stock markets across the world suddenly crashed after growing instability due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It ended on 7 April 2020.
Beginning on 13 May 2019, the yield curve on U.S. Treasury securities inverted, and remained so until 11 October 2019, when it reverted to normal. Through 2019, while some economists (including Campbell Harvey and former New York Federal Reserve economist Arturo Estrella) argued that a recession in the following year was likely, other economists (including the managing director of Wells Fargo Securities Michael Schumacher and San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary C. Daly) argued that inverted yield curves may no longer be a reliable recession predictor. The yield curve on U.S. Treasuries would not invert again until 30 January 2020 when the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, four weeks after local health commission officials in Wuhan, China announced the first 27 COVID-19 cases as a viral pneumonia strain outbreak on 1 January.The curve did not return to normal until 3 March when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target by 50 basis points. In noting decisions by the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points three times between 31 July and 30 October 2019, on 25 February 2020, former U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Nathan Sheets suggested that the attention of the Federal Reserve to the inversion of the yield curve in the U.S. Treasuries market when setting monetary policy may be having the perverse effect of making inverted yield curves less predictive of recessions.During 2019, the IMF reported that the world economy was going through a 'synchronized slowdown', which entered into its slowest pace since the Great Recession. Weakness was exhibited in the consumer market as global markets began to suffer through a 'sharp deterioration' of manufacturing activity. Global growth was believed to have peaked in 2017, when the world's total industrial sector output began to start a sustained decline in early 2018. The IMF blamed 'heightened trade and geopolitical tensions' as the main reason for the slowdown, citing Brexit and the China – United States trade war as primary reasons for slowdown in 2019, while other economists blamed liquidity issues.The crash caused a short-lived bear market, and in April 2020 global stock markets re-entered a bull market, though U.S. market indices did not return to January 2020 levels until November 2020. The crash signaled the beginning of the COVID-19 recession. The 2020 stock market crash followed a decade of economic prosperity and sustained global growth after recovery from the Great Recession. Global unemployment was at its lowest in history, whilst quality of life was generally improving across the world. However, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic, the most impactful pandemic since the Spanish flu, began decimating the economy. Global economic shutdowns occurred due to the pandemic, and panic buying and supply disruptions exacerbated the market. The International Monetary Fund had pointed to other mitigating factors seen pre-pandemic, such as a global synchronized slowdown in 2019, as exacerbants to the crash, especially given that the market was already vulnerable.Crash
Though the crash began on 20 February, selling was intensified during the first half of March to mid-March. During the crash, there were multiple severe daily drops in the global stock market, the largest drop was on 16 March, nicknamed 'Black Monday II' of 12–13% in most global markets. There were two other significant dates of crashes in the stock markets, one being 9 March, nicknamed 'Black Monday I', and on 12 March, nicknamed 'Black Thursday'. To deal with the panic, banks and reserves across the world cut their interest rates, bank rates and cash flow rates, as well as offering unprecedented support to investors and markets.24–28 February
On Monday, 24 February 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and FTSE 100 dropped more than 3% as the coronavirus outbreak spread worsened substantially outside China over the weekend. This follows benchmark indices falling sharply in continental Europe after steep declines across Asia. The DAX, CAC 40 and IBEX 35 each fell by about 4% and the FTSE MIB fell over 5%. There was a large fall in the price of oil and a large increase in the price of gold, to a 7-year high. Yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to 1.36% and 1.81% respectively. On 25 February, stock markets worldwide closed down, while oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than a year and the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to new record lows of 1.31% and 1.80% respectively. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced a $742 million fiscal stimulus program.On 26 February, stock markets worldwide finish with mixed records, while oil prices fell for the fourth session in a row while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell 1.30% and 1.80% respectively. The Bank of Korea declined to cut its overnight rate. On 27 February, due to mounting worries about the COVID-19 pandemic, stock markets in Asia-Pacific and Europe saw 3–5% declines, with the NASDAQ-100, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting their sharpest falls since 2008 (and the Dow falling 1,191 points, its largest one-day drop since the financial crisis of 2007–2008). Oil prices sank to their lowest level in over a year, while yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to 1.28% and 1.77% respectively. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that while the European Central Bank was monitoring the outbreak, it was not yet causing a long-term impact on inflation and thus did not yet require a monetary policy response.On 28 February, stock markets worldwide reported their largest single-week declines since the financial crisis of 2007–2008, while oil futures saw their largest single week decline since 2009 and the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to new record lows at 1.12% and 1.30% respectively. Outgoing Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated that the British economy (which saw stagnation and car manufacturing declines in the 4th quarter of 2019) was being impacted by the outbreak because it relies heavily on tourism revenues and international manufacturing supply lines. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the outbreak was posing "evolving risks to economic activity" and that the Federal Reserve would use monetary policy to "act as appropriate to support the economy" but that "The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong." Outgoing Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad announced a RM20 billion fiscal stimulus package.Ultimately, from 24 to 28 February, stock markets globally plummeted several percentage points, while on Wall Street the indices were down at least 10%. It was the fastest correction in market history from all-time high, taking merely six days to enter into correction territory. The sudden drop in late February was attributed to fears that China could produce a global economic shock, primarily due to quarantines imposed by the state to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, which at the time was classified as an epidemic. Within weeks, stocks fell sufficiently enough to enter bear market territory. Concerning reports of the viruses spread in South Korea, Italy and Iran also prompted fear in investors, mounting to a mass sell-off in Asia-Pacific stock markets as well as European ones.9–13 March
Black Monday I (9 March)
Crash
Prior to opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures market experienced a 1,300-point drop based on the coronavirus and fall in the oil price described above, triggering a trading curb, or circuit breaker, that caused the futures market to suspend trading for 15 minutes. Over the previous weekend, on 8 March, the TA-35 and TA-125 Indices of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange fell by 4.5% and 4.7% respectively, entering bear markets from their 19 February peaks.The United States' Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 2000 points, described by The News International as "the biggest ever fall in intraday trading." The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a number of trading "circuit breakers" to curb panicked selling. Oil firms Chevron and ExxonMobil fell about 15%. The NASDAQ Composite, also in the United States, lost over 620 points. The S&P 500 fell by 7.6%. Oil prices fell 22%, and the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell below 0.40% and 1.02% respectively. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the day off by more than 10%. Brazil's IBOVESPA gave up 12%, erasing over 15 months of gains for the index. Australia's ASX 200 lost 7.3% – its biggest daily drop since 2008, though it rebounded later in the day. London's FTSE 100 lost 7.7%, suffering its worst drop since the financial crisis of 2007–2008. BP and Shell Oil experienced intraday price drops of nearly 20% The FTSE MIB, CAC 40, and DAX tanked as well, with Italy affected the most as the COVID-19 pandemic in the country continues. They fell 11.2%, 8.4%, and 7.9% respectively. The STOXX Europe 600 fell to more than 20% below its peak earlier in the year.In a number of Asian markets—Japan, Singapore, the Philippines, and Indonesia—shares declined over 20% from their most recent peaks, entering bear market territory. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 plummeted 5.1%. In Singapore, the Straits Times Index fell 6.03%. In China, the CSI 300 Index lost 3%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index sank 4.2%. In Pakistan, the PSX saw the largest ever intra-day plunge in the country's history, losing 2,302 points or 6.0%. The market closed with the KSE 100 index down 3.1%. In India, the BSE SENSEX closed 1,942 points lower at 35,635 while the NSE Nifty 50 was down by 538 points to 10,451.The Washington Post posited that coronavirus-related turmoil could spark a collapse of the corporate debt bubble, sparking and worsening a recession. The Central Bank of Russia announced that it would suspend foreign exchange market purchases in domestic markets for 30 days, while the Central Bank of Brazil auctioned an additional $3.465 billion the foreign exchange market in two separate transactions and the Bank of Mexico increased its foreign exchange auctions program from $20 billion to $30 billion. After announcing a $120 billion fiscal stimulus programs on 2 December, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced additional government spending, while Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced additional stimulus as well.Subsequent recovery
Over the preceding weekend, the Central Bank of Taiwan announced a T$200 billion ($6.6 billion) credit-line program to small and medium-sized businesses, while the Bank of Korea announced that it would conduct a $12 billion U.S. dollar-funding operation at auctions to South Korean banks. The South African Reserve Bank announced that it would ease banking accounting and capital regulations to release R300 billion in credit, while the Bank of Israel announced that it would ease its capital requirements to facilitate greater lending by its banking system as well.On Monday, 30 March 2020, Asia-Pacific stock markets closed mostly down while European stock markets closed mostly 1% higher, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 all closed more than 3% higher. Oil prices fell by more than 6% to an 18-year low, while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to 0.66% and 1.24% respectively (while their yield curve remained normal).On 31 March, Asia-Pacific stock markets finished with mixed closings while European stock markets closed up, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 all fell by more than 1% (with the Dow closing to its worst one-quarter decline in history). Oil prices rose by 2% (but closed at their worst one-month and one-quarter declines in history), while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities rose to 0.68% and 1.34% respectively.On 1 April, Asia-Pacific and European stock markets closed mostly down, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 all closed 5% down. Oil prices fell, while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to 0.61% and 1.23% respectively (while their yield curve finished normal).On 9 April, Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to oil production cuts. Reuters reported that "If Saudi Arabia failed to rein in output, US senators called on the White House to impose sanctions on Riyadh, pull out US troops from the kingdom and impose import tariffs on Saudi oil."On 11 June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1861 points, around 7%, as fears of a second wave of COVID-19 along with a press conference from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on the previous day weighed on investor sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose throughout August 2020, reaching a peak of 29,199 points on 3 September 2020 at 9:48 EST before plunging nearly 1,000 points throughout the remainder of the day.  On 16 September, Jerome Powell and the FOMC gave their final economic projections, which led the DJIA falling approximately 4% over the next three days.  Throughout September, the DJIA saw a substantial −9% retreat amidst growing fears of a second COVID-19 infection wave, lack of federal stimulus outlook, and U.S. election instability. However, optimism soon recovered, and the DJIA and S&P 500 both closed 2020 at all-time highs of
30,606 and 3,756 respectively. The MSCI ACWI Index also had recovered to its February peak by September 2020, and closed 2020 at an all-time high of 645 points.See also
COVID-19 recession
Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
Financial market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
2020 Congressional insider trading scandal
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